T4thH wrote:https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... te-459019/
Sorry, I do not know, from where you have the numbers.
It is quite specific, 20+20+20 ATR-42s and 15+15+15 ATR-72s.
VSMUT is not talking about per seat. A220/E2 raw fuel burn is getting close to turboprops, and making the raw overall trip costs competitive.
ATR 72-500 — 620 kg/h
Embraer E-170 — 1530 kg/h
numbers may be different a bit, but comparison is clear
The Embraer E2
, not the almost 20 year old E-170.
An ex-colleague now flying A320neos at SAS has noted he manages to do short hops on the jet with a total fuel burn of no more than 200 kg more than on the ATR-72. Don't forget, it isn't hard to chop a third of the flying time off by using a jet. Just using those figures, for a 45 minute ATR flight you are talking 450 kg for the ATR, 750 kg for the E-170. The latest P&W GTFs push that difference down even further. So yes, the E2 and A220 are definitely putting pressure on the larger turboprops. Airlines not only get aircraft that are matching turboprops in raw costs, but if you can fill the jet you can beat them on CASM. Passengers find the jets more attractive, they are faster and can be used competitively on much longer routes.
You don't even have to look very far to find that this tendency has been taking place for a while. Lufthansa, KLM and Alitalia both replaced their turboprops with light jets of the previous generation
. Air France is just getting round to doing it. I have worked with a number of other airlines that I know are all taking a serious look at the A220 too, some of them pretty iconic ATR operators.
And please note, forecasts say, regarding expected changes in laws, additional fees for NOx and CO2, expected move to CO2 neutral fuels (which are more expensive e.g.), in Europe and other parts of the world the regional JET market will disappear or get negligible just verify the Boeing JET forecast for the next 20 years. .Now 240 regional jets, in 20 years around 60 will be left and these are already "old" for Europe. The market for Europe will move to the Turboprop, as we have seen it already or see it now for Norway and Sweden (there the laws, tax and fees regarding CO2 and NOx have already been implemented).
You are putting way too much weight on those forecasts. A forecast made by Boeing will obviously downplay regional aircraft, because Boeing doesn't build those.
Turboprops will be hit just as hard by CO2 and NOx emission standards. For an equal fuel burn, those emissions will remain the same regardless of engine type (obviously not electric, but that's another matter). A turboprop is still a turbine at heart. FlygBRA has just managed to avoid the negative press by flying on bio-fuels.