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Zoedyn
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CAN, SZX gain renewed impetus to challenge HKG as air hub in Pearl River Delta

Sat Aug 17, 2019 8:00 am

In the wake of recent events that occurred in Hong Kong, there are some interesting issues being raised or rehashed in fresh new perspective regarding the changing landscape of hub airports cluster for the Pearl River Delta/PRD in South China, as the following articles illustrate.

Some ppl in the mainland are even calling for the Chinese authorities to grant more policy incentives and resources to CAN and SZX so as to reverse the current HKG-centered aviation situation ASAP, ranging from infrastructure expansion and traffic rights authorization to airspace use.

Also worth mentioning that CAN makes no secret of its ambition to overtake HKG as the #1 hub airport by pax traffic in PRD by 2020, as the latter is heavily congested with its 3rd rwy not ready until 2024, while CAN is already considering putting in place T3 and additional 4th/5th rwys by 2025.

Will the Chinese government be resetting or reprioritizing its considerations about the PRD airports cluster as some of the articles here suggest? Certainly worth close watch :camera:

深圳机场股价攀升,香港事件或重塑粤港澳湾区机场群格局SZX shares jump as HK incidents may reshape airports cluster landscape in Pearl River Delta

香港机场遇到了今生最强的对手HKG faces strongest rivals from Guangdong

Hong Kong Airport Chaos Gives Huge Boost to Rivals Across Border
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: CAN, SZX gain renewed impetus to challenge HKG as air hub in Pearl River Delta

Sat Aug 17, 2019 8:51 am

Zoedyn wrote:
CAN makes no secret of its ambition to overtake HKG as the #1 hub airport by pax traffic

Which is a bit of a misnomer, as its traffic flow is overwhelmingly domestic and regional, whereas HKG is still (with all its problems) the premier/largest longhaul and int'l-to-int'l hub of east Asia.

That part won't be changing any time soon.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
sibibom
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Re: CAN, SZX gain renewed impetus to challenge HKG as air hub in Pearl River Delta

Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:18 am

CAN may overtake HKG in terms of traffic, but they are targetting two completely different segments. People come to HKG for work/pleasure or are connecting cos of the Airline (aka Cathay). CAN and SZX offer neither. But they have their own strengths are should focus on those. HKG decline (if it does happen) will help Singapore and Bangkok more than Chinese cities.
 
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SQ32
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Re: CAN, SZX gain renewed impetus to challenge HKG as air hub in Pearl River Delta

Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:58 am

In the long run, Cathay will have a diminshed hub status for transpacific traffic.

Today the most connected Transpacific hub is already PEK.
 
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enilria
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Re: CAN, SZX gain renewed impetus to challenge HKG as air hub in Pearl River Delta

Sat Aug 17, 2019 11:16 am

LAX772LR wrote:
Zoedyn wrote:
CAN makes no secret of its ambition to overtake HKG as the #1 hub airport by pax traffic

Which is a bit of a misnomer, as its traffic flow is overwhelmingly domestic and regional, whereas HKG is still (with all its problems) the premier/largest longhaul and int'l-to-int'l hub of east Asia.

That part won't be changing any time soon.

It’s not as if China has not already been using huge financial incentives to try to change passenger/airline behavior. The only possible way to do this would be to relocate CX which would set off a huge backlash and would fail miserably.
 
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flee
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Re: CAN, SZX gain renewed impetus to challenge HKG as air hub in Pearl River Delta

Sat Aug 17, 2019 11:20 am

SQ32 wrote:
In the long run, Cathay will have a diminshed hub status for transpacific traffic.

Today the most connected Transpacific hub is already PEK.

I think that is because Chinese citizens are bypassing HKG these days.

For foreigners, some of them may be required to apply for transit visas and that will not make it fuss free to transit in PEK or other Chinese airports.
 
c933103
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Re: CAN, SZX gain renewed impetus to challenge HKG as air hub in Pearl River Delta

Sat Aug 17, 2019 11:20 am

enilria wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Zoedyn wrote:
CAN makes no secret of its ambition to overtake HKG as the #1 hub airport by pax traffic

Which is a bit of a misnomer, as its traffic flow is overwhelmingly domestic and regional, whereas HKG is still (with all its problems) the premier/largest longhaul and int'l-to-int'l hub of east Asia.

That part won't be changing any time soon.

It’s not as if China has not already been using huge financial incentives to try to change passenger/airline behavior. The only possible way to do this would be to relocate CX which would set off a huge backlash and would fail miserably.

Some have suggested that Chinese government could ask Swire group to surrender their stake in Cathay to Air China using their power and money.
When no other countries around the world is going to militarily stop China and its subordinate fom abusing its citizens within its national boundary, it is unreasonable to expect those abuse can be countered with purely peaceful means.
 
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zeke
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Re: CAN, SZX gain renewed impetus to challenge HKG as air hub in Pearl River Delta

Sat Aug 17, 2019 2:41 pm

SQ32 wrote:
Today the most connected Transpacific hub is already PEK.


I don’t think that is even close to being true. No mainland Chinese airline as far as I am aware is even in the top 10 for passenger traffic trans pacific.

The top 13 transpacific airlines far as I know in alphabetical order would be Air Canada, ANA, American Airlines, Asiana, Cathay, China Airlines, Delta, Eva, Japan Airlines, Korean Airlines, Singapore Airlines, United.

The largest transpacific hub would have to be either
Seoul or Tokyo as they see the largest number of the US3 flights.
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MaverickM11
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Re: CAN, SZX gain renewed impetus to challenge HKG as air hub in Pearl River Delta

Sat Aug 17, 2019 2:44 pm

Won't matter until CAN/SZX have the same yield that HKG generates, which is not happening any time soon, and the discount to HKG is enormous.
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Re: CAN, SZX gain renewed impetus to challenge HKG as air hub in Pearl River Delta

Sat Aug 17, 2019 2:56 pm

Zoedyn wrote:
In the wake of recent events that occurred in Hong Kong

... related to the behaviors of the Chief Executive ...

The Chief Executive is elected from a restricted pool of candidates supportive of the Central Government by a 1200-member Election Committee, an electoral college consisting of individuals (i.e. private citizens) and bodies (i.e. special interest groups) selected or elected within 28 functional constituencies, as prescribed in Annex I to the Basic Law.

Ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chief_Exe ... _Hong_Kong

Zoedyn wrote:
there are some interesting issues being raised or rehashed in fresh new perspective regarding the changing landscape of hub airports cluster for the Pearl River Delta/PRD in South China, as the following articles illustrate.

.. which coincidentally enough would be a shift in favor of the Central Government, no?
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StudiodeKadent
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Re: CAN, SZX gain renewed impetus to challenge HKG as air hub in Pearl River Delta

Sat Aug 17, 2019 4:00 pm

c933103 wrote:
Some have suggested that Chinese government could ask Swire group to surrender their stake in Cathay to Air China using their power and money.


So basically nationalization.

This would be an immense breach of the Sino-British Declaration of 1997. Not to mention, doing so would make China much less appealing to foreign investors, knowing what the Chinese government could do.

Without massive economic changes, HKG will always be the highest-yield airport in the Pearl River Delta region.

I hope China doesn't destroy Hong Kong. But, well, I can't say they won't.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: CAN, SZX gain renewed impetus to challenge HKG as air hub in Pearl River Delta

Sat Aug 17, 2019 7:21 pm

SQ32 wrote:
Today the most connected Transpacific hub is already PEK.

Wait, huh?

Not only is that not true in any regard, it's not even true for just mainland China alone... where PVG has both the most transpac destinations and the most frequencies, not PEK.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
B1168
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Re: CAN, SZX gain renewed impetus to challenge HKG as air hub in Pearl River Delta

Mon Aug 19, 2019 3:17 am

StudiodeKadent wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Some have suggested that Chinese government could ask Swire group to surrender their stake in Cathay to Air China using their power and money.


So basically nationalization.

This would be an immense breach of the Sino-British Declaration of 1997. Not to mention, doing so would make China much less appealing to foreign investors, knowing what the Chinese government could do.

Without massive economic changes, HKG will always be the highest-yield airport in the Pearl River Delta region.

I hope China doesn't destroy Hong Kong. But, well, I can't say they won't.


Calm down... if they didn't do it 50 or 60 years ago, they would never do it now. A much better idea for the local authorities is to secure the airspace with CAAC Central/Southern department needed for the 3rd runway before SZX got theirs; that is what I would call a priority. As recent news suggested, Shenzhen was put to extra attention from the central, so I will not be surprised if the whole SZX 3rd runway thing start to move faster. There is that much space in the Pearl River Delta. I wish everyone ample airspace, but they sometimes are first come, first served---- which means your slow speed is not others' bad.
 
c933103
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Re: CAN, SZX gain renewed impetus to challenge HKG as air hub in Pearl River Delta

Mon Aug 19, 2019 4:33 am

B1168 wrote:
StudiodeKadent wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Some have suggested that Chinese government could ask Swire group to surrender their stake in Cathay to Air China using their power and money.


So basically nationalization.

This would be an immense breach of the Sino-British Declaration of 1997. Not to mention, doing so would make China much less appealing to foreign investors, knowing what the Chinese government could do.

Without massive economic changes, HKG will always be the highest-yield airport in the Pearl River Delta region.

I hope China doesn't destroy Hong Kong. But, well, I can't say they won't.


Calm down... if they didn't do it 50 or 60 years ago, they would never do it now. A much better idea for the local authorities is to secure the airspace with CAAC Central/Southern department needed for the 3rd runway before SZX got theirs; that is what I would call a priority. As recent news suggested, Shenzhen was put to extra attention from the central, so I will not be surprised if the whole SZX 3rd runway thing start to move faster. There is that much space in the Pearl River Delta. I wish everyone ample airspace, but they sometimes are first come, first served---- which means your slow speed is not others' bad.

I don't think it is possible to negotiate the airspace issue between Hong Kong and mainland China in the upcoming decades now that mainland China have weaponized Chinese airspace access against carrier at Hong Kong.
When no other countries around the world is going to militarily stop China and its subordinate fom abusing its citizens within its national boundary, it is unreasonable to expect those abuse can be countered with purely peaceful means.
 
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SQ32
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Re: CAN, SZX gain renewed impetus to challenge HKG as air hub in Pearl River Delta

Mon Aug 19, 2019 5:00 am

HK has too many environmental NGO having a anti development sworn-aim. HKIA 3rd runway is really a bad idea for these stone-age pristine land fanboy, who keep lamenting their pet dolphines get killed to make way for the runway.

I hope these environmentalists go to court and sue and have their ways, and the 3rd runway got even more delay. This will show democracy.
 
B1168
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Re: CAN, SZX gain renewed impetus to challenge HKG as air hub in Pearl River Delta

Tue Aug 20, 2019 2:07 am

sibibom wrote:
CAN may overtake HKG in terms of traffic, but they are targetting two completely different segments. People come to HKG for work/pleasure or are connecting cos of the Airline (aka Cathay). CAN and SZX offer neither. But they have their own strengths are should focus on those. HKG decline (if it does happen) will help Singapore and Bangkok more than Chinese cities.


Connection CAN does. But CAN do much more domestic-internation with limited international flight capacities compared to HKG. That should explain why the per plane passenger movement in CAN is so much lower than that of HKG's.
 
B1168
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Re: CAN, SZX gain renewed impetus to challenge HKG as air hub in Pearl River Delta

Tue Aug 20, 2019 2:09 am

c933103 wrote:
B1168 wrote:
StudiodeKadent wrote:

So basically nationalization.

This would be an immense breach of the Sino-British Declaration of 1997. Not to mention, doing so would make China much less appealing to foreign investors, knowing what the Chinese government could do.

Without massive economic changes, HKG will always be the highest-yield airport in the Pearl River Delta region.

I hope China doesn't destroy Hong Kong. But, well, I can't say they won't.


Calm down... if they didn't do it 50 or 60 years ago, they would never do it now. A much better idea for the local authorities is to secure the airspace with CAAC Central/Southern department needed for the 3rd runway before SZX got theirs; that is what I would call a priority. As recent news suggested, Shenzhen was put to extra attention from the central, so I will not be surprised if the whole SZX 3rd runway thing start to move faster. There is that much space in the Pearl River Delta. I wish everyone ample airspace, but they sometimes are first come, first served---- which means your slow speed is not others' bad.

I don't think it is possible to negotiate the airspace issue between Hong Kong and mainland China in the upcoming decades now that mainland China have weaponized Chinese airspace access against carrier at Hong Kong.


I doubt. But well, that possibility does exist----CAAC can just choose to lean to SZX on that choice. So, well, HKG, your time is precious, make good use of it.
 
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zeke
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Re: CAN, SZX gain renewed impetus to challenge HKG as air hub in Pearl River Delta

Tue Aug 20, 2019 4:04 am

SQ32 wrote:
HK has too many environmental NGO having a anti development sworn-aim. HKIA 3rd runway is really a bad idea for these stone-age pristine land fanboy, who keep lamenting their pet dolphines get killed to make way for the runway.

I hope these environmentalists go to court and sue and have their ways, and the 3rd runway got even more delay. This will show democracy.


That attitude towards the environment our children and their children’s children will grown up in is a worry for anyone in the international community.

Having checks and balances in place builds a sustainable future for everyone. It is normal practice when building any large infrastructure project like an airport.

The lack of checks and balances in developing mainland China is the reason why there is a crisis for clean drinking water to sustain the population, let alone food production.

“28,000 rivers in China having dried up over the past 25 years”

From

https://www.globalelr.com/2018/06/china ... -problems/
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
reply1984
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Re: CAN, SZX gain renewed impetus to challenge HKG as air hub in Pearl River Delta

Tue Aug 20, 2019 5:16 am

SQ32 wrote:
HK has too many environmental NGO having a anti development sworn-aim. HKIA 3rd runway is really a bad idea for these stone-age pristine land fanboy, who keep lamenting their pet dolphines get killed to make way for the runway.

I hope these environmentalists go to court and sue and have their ways, and the 3rd runway got even more delay. This will show democracy.


However, the court rejected the judicial review from environmental groups in 2016, and it seems that these NGOs will not block the expansion.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: CAN, SZX gain renewed impetus to challenge HKG as air hub in Pearl River Delta

Tue Aug 20, 2019 11:35 am

SQ32 wrote:
HK has too many environmental NGO having a anti development sworn-aim. HKIA 3rd runway is really a bad idea for these stone-age pristine land fanboy, who keep lamenting their pet dolphines get killed to make way for the runway.

I hope these environmentalists go to court and sue and have their ways, and the 3rd runway got even more delay. This will show democracy.


Maybe with the “reduced” demand, HKIA doesn’t need a 3rd runway after all?

BTW, environmental NGO is just the façade of opposition. The main concern, rightly, is the fact that HK govt just build all these infrastructure, and often finished them 5 years late and at twice the original budget. Meanwhile, the govt just keep wanting to build, build, and build more, as if they are keeping up with the Jones (i.e. mainland cities) without realizing that mainland cities are going into debt just to build all these shiny infrastructures.

The other concern is the aforementioned airspace issue. Even with the 3rd runway, the capacity does not increase 50% bc of the restriction over PRD. With the totally inept govt, I don’t expect them to be able to get “concession” from mainland even before the current situation.

P.S. China can build up SZX all they want, it will still be the AUH compare to HKG being the DXB. Tell me, how successful are those heavily subsidized long-haul routes from SZX anyway?
Free Hong Kong! Free China!
 
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huaiwei
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Re: CAN, SZX gain renewed impetus to challenge HKG as air hub in Pearl River Delta

Tue Aug 20, 2019 2:04 pm

sibibom wrote:
CAN may overtake HKG in terms of traffic, but they are targetting two completely different segments. People come to HKG for work/pleasure or are connecting cos of the Airline (aka Cathay). CAN and SZX offer neither. But they have their own strengths are should focus on those. HKG decline (if it does happen) will help Singapore and Bangkok more than Chinese cities.

HKG is still dominated by one route isn't it: HKG-TPE, the world's busiest international route. Not as if this highly politicised traffic can significantly flow through the Chinese airports instead despite the opening up of the three links, and it is unlikely that it will open up much further under the current climate.
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zakuivcustom
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Re: CAN, SZX gain renewed impetus to challenge HKG as air hub in Pearl River Delta

Tue Aug 20, 2019 4:14 pm

huaiwei wrote:
HKG is still dominated by one route isn't it: HKG-TPE, the world's busiest international route. Not as if this highly politicised traffic can significantly flow through the Chinese airports instead despite the opening up of the three links, and it is unlikely that it will open up much further under the current climate.


Well, the busiest routes out of HKG are: TPE, PVG, BKK, and ICN, follow by routes like TYO (Divided between HND and NRT), SIN, and TPE (and PEK and KIX)

HKG-TPE will stay busy as-is, and will only get busier, once every single HKers migrate to Taiwan. :duck: :duck:
PVG (and PEK) are not affected - SZX-PVG/PEK are two of the busiest routes in mainland China even right now.
BKK, MNL, and SIN shouldn't be heavily affected, either - for MNL there's the VFR (i.e. domestic worker) traffic along with transit; BKK and SIN are both heavy O&D routes. SE Asia routes in general are more affected by the SE Asian LCCs anyway.
ICN and TYO (along with KIX) are all heavily O&D. There are plenty of flights between mainland China and Japan/South Korea right now anyway.

Long-haul wise, routes like LHR won't be affected, and CZ already compete heavily in Australian routes anyway. To US (i.e. LAX/SFO/JFK) there are already plenty of competition for US-SE Asia traffic as-is (i.e. KE/OZ at ICN along with CI/BR at TPE, and to lesser extent, MU at PVG). Plus US-China bilateral heavily limited growth there even if they expand CAN to 6 runways and flatten the whole Bao'an District to expand SZX.

The bottom line is, it will take a LONG time before, let say, SZX-BKK (5-6 daily flights) to reach the frequency of HKG-BKK (~25 daily flight).
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tphuang
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Re: CAN, SZX gain renewed impetus to challenge HKG as air hub in Pearl River Delta

Tue Aug 20, 2019 4:44 pm

This entire idea is overly optimistic for CAN. HKG and CX will remain the dominant forces in pearl river delta and long haul connection to southeast asia for a long time. As someone who is willing to connect in China, I know a lot of people wary of connecting in China and would pay high premium to connect at HKG. and aside from the connection traffic, I don't see O&D dropping at HKG. If anything, SZX will continue to bleed traffic to HKG due to its significantly weaker schedule internationally.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: CAN, SZX gain renewed impetus to challenge HKG as air hub in Pearl River Delta

Wed Aug 21, 2019 1:04 am

Any reason why TPE never reached the status of HKG?
 
moa999
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Re: CAN, SZX gain renewed impetus to challenge HKG as air hub in Pearl River Delta

Wed Aug 21, 2019 3:37 am

tphuang wrote:
As someone who is willing to connect in China, I know a lot of people wary of connecting in China and would pay high premium to connect at HKG.


But that can change pretty quickly.
Despite improvements with the TWOVs etc there are still issues with it that put people off.
And the transit experience at the Chinese airports isn't great.

Both however are arguably fairly simple (and relatively cheap) fixes.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: CAN, SZX gain renewed impetus to challenge HKG as air hub in Pearl River Delta

Wed Aug 21, 2019 4:30 am

Dieuwer wrote:
Any reason why TPE never reached the status of HKG?


B/c Taipei is no international financial center, unlike HK?

It doesn't help that you can't really fly between Europe and Taiwan non-stop for many years. Even now, that is heavily restricted by the limited bilateral.

TPAC hub wise, TPE actually do a decent job carrying pax between US and SE Asia. But that's about the only role it can play as a hub.
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tphuang
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Re: CAN, SZX gain renewed impetus to challenge HKG as air hub in Pearl River Delta

Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:06 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Any reason why TPE never reached the status of HKG?

there are 2 carriers of relevance, which doesn't help. And the O&D to TPE is just much smaller than HKG. On top of that, TPE has to split connections with NH, TG, CA and OZ for *A ff + KE, MU for ST ff. CX only has to split connections with JL for OW ff.

zakuivcustom wrote:

TPAC hub wise, TPE actually do a decent job carrying pax between US and SE Asia. But that's about the only role it can play as a hub.

you are right here. It's actually located pretty well (maybe even better than HKG for US to SE Asia. BR surprisingly shows up in a lot of searches I do to the region and with pretty competitive pricing too. But it's still far behind CX. TPE also looses a lot of close-in traffic to TSA, which HKG doesn't have to worry about.

It's just so far from Taipei itself.

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