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msp747
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Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Wed Aug 21, 2019 7:07 pm

iadadd wrote:
The Dulles slandering on this site makes it seem like every passenger who uses IAD views it as a burden. First, IAD is not THAT far from D.C. and is closer (and usually quicker) than BWI. Secondly, the DMV is quite decentralized, with a large amount of economic activity occurring in Northern Virginia and Western Montgomery County. In addition, the vast growth we are witnessing at IAD is primarily long-haul, and thus there is no option but IAD. I do believe that most DC area International travelers would rather make a 30-40 minute commute to Dulles to begin their International trips, rather than take a domestic flight out of DCA to EWR/JFK/ORD/PHL and connect to an International flight.

IAD is the airport people love to hate and nothing the airport ever does will change that. DCA is a landlocked airport with basically 1 runway, slot restrictions, and cannot routinely handle planes bigger than a 757. Short of bulldozing Old Town Alexandria or filling in the Potomac River, this will always be the case, yet people still love to talk like DC would be well-served without IAD and that it only exists because of the perimeter rule. I have always found it amusing that the LGA/JFK arrangement in New York makes sense to people on A.Net, but DCA/IAD is a Montreal-style debacle.
 
blockski
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Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Wed Aug 21, 2019 7:22 pm

dcaviation wrote:
Who cares if DCA had more passengers than IAD? At the end money goes to the very same pocket, MWAA.
It's a 3 way 33% 33% 33% pie that goes to BWI DCA IAD. It always will be. No matter how you look at it. You can see slight shift 34% - 31% etc. But it's not going to change.


It's an airport, not a slush fund. No, the money doesn't just go into MWAA's pocket. And no, they can't just move money around from each airport as they wish.

IAD for the past several years was couple of million people behind DCA. What happened then? Adding half a million seats to IAD didn't change the numbers at DCA.
The only logical explanation is that IAD became DCs airport of choice.


Let's not overstate the difference between DCA and IAD. IAD's recent traffic bottomed out in 2014 at 21.5m; which was still larger than year than DCA (20.8m).

In 2015, as we've discussed, DCA traffic shoots up with new entrants and US/AA slot divestitures. DCA hits 23.0, IAD is 21.6 - a gap of 1.4m.
2016: DCA 23.6, IAD 22.0 (-1.6)
2017: DCA 23.9, IAD 22.9 (-1.0)
2018: DCA 23.5, IAD 24.0 (+0.5)

But it's also not as if IAD is the region's airport of choice. DCA's O/D share is still much, much higher than IAD's. It's certainly attracting lots of local traffic, but most of this growth is coming from UA, and United's strategy is to push more connecting traffic across the Dulles hub. Which makes perfect sense for both UA and for MWAA - that's what Dulles is suited to do.
 
USAirALB
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Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Wed Aug 21, 2019 7:44 pm

Antarius wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
Its is incredible to me how underutilized this airport continues to be. But the demand must not be there to justify more flights by the airlines


It is the Montreal Mirabel or Tokyo Narita of the US. It is used because it is forced to be used. The market doesnt care for it, otherwise 24 million at a massive airport that is also a hub for a large airline wouldnt be news.

The silver line is also a miss as it is going to be slow as molasses. Both Express and local service was needed, not just a metro.


I agree with the statement about the Silver Line, but to compare IAD to NRT or Mirabel is wrong.

Both Tokyo and Montreal already had a functioning airport that could handle international widebody jet traffic. DCA could not and still cannot handle international widebody flights.
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winstonavgeek
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Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Wed Aug 21, 2019 9:15 pm

IAD is a relatively interesting story. Its rebound is obviously good news. I expect a transition towards less O & D and more hub traffic. UA is definitely going to expand their operations here. Right now, the goals for IAD should be to expand their international operation, continue UA's expansion, and find a suitable LCC carrier at Dulles.

As to all the Metro related talk, I can say that the WMATA will not add express service. It would require a solution to the Rosslyn tunnel problem as well as a possible new Blue/Orange Line detour. WMATA look reluctant to do so.

Also, we should stop comparing IAD to DCA. IAD and DCA are different airports in their own regard. One is focused on domestic O&D traffic where as another is focused on connections and international traffic.
 
Antarius
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Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Wed Aug 21, 2019 9:25 pm

USAirALB wrote:
Antarius wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
Its is incredible to me how underutilized this airport continues to be. But the demand must not be there to justify more flights by the airlines


It is the Montreal Mirabel or Tokyo Narita of the US. It is used because it is forced to be used. The market doesnt care for it, otherwise 24 million at a massive airport that is also a hub for a large airline wouldnt be news.

The silver line is also a miss as it is going to be slow as molasses. Both Express and local service was needed, not just a metro.


I agree with the statement about the Silver Line, but to compare IAD to NRT or Mirabel is wrong.

Both Tokyo and Montreal already had a functioning airport that could handle international widebody jet traffic. DCA could not and still cannot handle international widebody flights.


True, but in all 3 cases, they were slot/space restricted which led to a Greenfield airport. The problem with IAD, NRT or YMX isn't the concept of building a new airport. It was how it was done.

There are plenty of examples of greenfield airports that arent in the above category
2019: SIN HKG NRT DFW IAH HOU CLT LGA JFK SFO SJC EWR SNA EYW MIA BOG LAX ORD DTW OAK PVG BOS DCA IAD ATL LAS BIS CUN PHX OAK SYD CVG PHL MAD ORY CDG SLC SJU BQN MHT YYZ STS BIS DOH BLR KTM MFM MEX MSY BWI DEN
 
SteelChair
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Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Wed Aug 21, 2019 11:54 pm

An amazing factoid, while IAD passenger traffic is approaching 2007 levels, the number of operations (takeoffs and landings) is way down from the peak. I've seem this at many airoorts. Airlines are doing much better at filling planes up than they did 15-20 years ago.
 
blockski
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Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Thu Aug 22, 2019 1:42 pm

Antarius wrote:
USAirALB wrote:
Antarius wrote:

It is the Montreal Mirabel or Tokyo Narita of the US. It is used because it is forced to be used. The market doesnt care for it, otherwise 24 million at a massive airport that is also a hub for a large airline wouldnt be news.

The silver line is also a miss as it is going to be slow as molasses. Both Express and local service was needed, not just a metro.


I agree with the statement about the Silver Line, but to compare IAD to NRT or Mirabel is wrong.

Both Tokyo and Montreal already had a functioning airport that could handle international widebody jet traffic. DCA could not and still cannot handle international widebody flights.


True, but in all 3 cases, they were slot/space restricted which led to a Greenfield airport. The problem with IAD, NRT or YMX isn't the concept of building a new airport. It was how it was done.

There are plenty of examples of greenfield airports that arent in the above category


The problem here is the category - YMX doesn't fit. NRT isn't a great example, either.

The better comparisons to IAD are already here in the US: ORD, IAH, DFW... All airports planned for the Jet Age, meant to succeed small and hard-to-expand older airports (MDW, HOU, DAL, and DCA) with larger sites, longer runways, new facilities, etc.

Likewise, if the complaint about IAD isn't that it's a new airport, but 'how it was done' I'm not sure how you reconcile the completely different outcomes for IAD, NRT, and YMX.
 
Antarius
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Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Thu Aug 22, 2019 5:05 pm

blockski wrote:
Antarius wrote:
USAirALB wrote:

I agree with the statement about the Silver Line, but to compare IAD to NRT or Mirabel is wrong.

Both Tokyo and Montreal already had a functioning airport that could handle international widebody jet traffic. DCA could not and still cannot handle international widebody flights.


True, but in all 3 cases, they were slot/space restricted which led to a Greenfield airport. The problem with IAD, NRT or YMX isn't the concept of building a new airport. It was how it was done.

There are plenty of examples of greenfield airports that arent in the above category


The problem here is the category - YMX doesn't fit. NRT isn't a great example, either.

The better comparisons to IAD are already here in the US: ORD, IAH, DFW... All airports planned for the Jet Age, meant to succeed small and hard-to-expand older airports (MDW, HOU, DAL, and DCA) with larger sites, longer runways, new facilities, etc.

Likewise, if the complaint about IAD isn't that it's a new airport, but 'how it was done' I'm not sure how you reconcile the completely different outcomes for IAD, NRT, and YMX.


Im not sure how the outcome of IAD in any way overlaps with the others. ORD, IAH, DFW are hugely successful airports. DFW is busting at its seams and planning a new terminal, ORD is a fight for more gates etc.

YMX is an extreme case, but only because the government finally stopped pushing a bad idea. The market can and will abandon IAD and NRT to the maximum ability given the choice. No one would leave IAH, ORD or DFW.

So, yea, the issue isnt that they built IAD - it just wasn't done well.
2019: SIN HKG NRT DFW IAH HOU CLT LGA JFK SFO SJC EWR SNA EYW MIA BOG LAX ORD DTW OAK PVG BOS DCA IAD ATL LAS BIS CUN PHX OAK SYD CVG PHL MAD ORY CDG SLC SJU BQN MHT YYZ STS BIS DOH BLR KTM MFM MEX MSY BWI DEN
 
blockski
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Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Thu Aug 22, 2019 5:38 pm

Antarius wrote:
blockski wrote:
Antarius wrote:

True, but in all 3 cases, they were slot/space restricted which led to a Greenfield airport. The problem with IAD, NRT or YMX isn't the concept of building a new airport. It was how it was done.

There are plenty of examples of greenfield airports that arent in the above category


The problem here is the category - YMX doesn't fit. NRT isn't a great example, either.

The better comparisons to IAD are already here in the US: ORD, IAH, DFW... All airports planned for the Jet Age, meant to succeed small and hard-to-expand older airports (MDW, HOU, DAL, and DCA) with larger sites, longer runways, new facilities, etc.

Likewise, if the complaint about IAD isn't that it's a new airport, but 'how it was done' I'm not sure how you reconcile the completely different outcomes for IAD, NRT, and YMX.


Im not sure how the outcome of IAD in any way overlaps with the others. ORD, IAH, DFW are hugely successful airports. DFW is busting at its seams and planning a new terminal, ORD is a fight for more gates etc.

YMX is an extreme case, but only because the government finally stopped pushing a bad idea. The market can and will abandon IAD and NRT to the maximum ability given the choice. No one would leave IAH, ORD or DFW.

So, yea, the issue isnt that they built IAD - it just wasn't done well.


I never said IAD's outcome overlaps with ORD, IAH, or DFW - but the origin absolutely has similarities: a newer, bigger airport for the jet age when the existing airport was too small and too constrained to grow.

YMX shares only some of that history, but as we've seen, YUL was actually not that constrained at all. A big part of the reason YMX was a bad idea is because YUL had room to grow - and yet that's not true in the other cases, and certainly not true of DCA/IAD.

"The market" is not going to "abandon" Dulles at all. Dulles, like IAH, ORD, and DFW filled a specific role that none of their smaller original airports could - and that's to host widebody aircraft flying long-haul routes, mostly international. Now, all three of those airports are more successful domestic hubs than Dulles, but that's more a product of geography/location rather than airport design.

DCA is never going to be expanded to serve widebodies or as an international gateway, and therefore IAD will always be around.

Even NRT is not going to be 'abandoned.' HND is also too constrained, even if it becomes the premium international hub. Tokyo's the biggest conurbation in the world, there's more than enough traffic to sustain NRT (and it's not possible to squeeze it all into HND).
 
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N776AU
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Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:03 pm

msp747 wrote:
IAD is the airport people love to hate and nothing the airport ever does will change that.

Never understood that. I fly to IAD relatively frequently, and have always found it very easy.
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msp747
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Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:15 pm

Antarius wrote:
blockski wrote:
Antarius wrote:

True, but in all 3 cases, they were slot/space restricted which led to a Greenfield airport. The problem with IAD, NRT or YMX isn't the concept of building a new airport. It was how it was done.

There are plenty of examples of greenfield airports that arent in the above category


The problem here is the category - YMX doesn't fit. NRT isn't a great example, either.

The better comparisons to IAD are already here in the US: ORD, IAH, DFW... All airports planned for the Jet Age, meant to succeed small and hard-to-expand older airports (MDW, HOU, DAL, and DCA) with larger sites, longer runways, new facilities, etc.

Likewise, if the complaint about IAD isn't that it's a new airport, but 'how it was done' I'm not sure how you reconcile the completely different outcomes for IAD, NRT, and YMX.


Im not sure how the outcome of IAD in any way overlaps with the others. ORD, IAH, DFW are hugely successful airports. DFW is busting at its seams and planning a new terminal, ORD is a fight for more gates etc.

YMX is an extreme case, but only because the government finally stopped pushing a bad idea. The market can and will abandon IAD and NRT to the maximum ability given the choice. No one would leave IAH, ORD or DFW.

So, yea, the issue isnt that they built IAD - it just wasn't done well.


I don't think you'll find many people who defend the airport how it was envisioned. It was built where it is because it was a whole lot easier to wipe out an African American community than it was a white one. It was built in an era where this country shunned mass transit and thought the automobile was the only mode of transportation with a future. The airport was also designed in an era when there was no security and flying was still for the few and only the elite. The mistakes are many and pretty obvious.

However, the airport WAS built, so I think people need to stop dwelling on the mistakes of the past and look at what's being done to fix them. It seems pretty obvious that MWAA is redesigning the airport to work with current and future travel needs, and has the space to do so. The linear concourses are an efficient layout, especially for an airport with a hub (a hub that is, at least for now, growing). The mobile lounges and old security stations got the job done, but not well, and didn't leave room for growth. The AeroTrain and new security layout will accommodate that. Yes, the train currently requires a walk (something I don't mind), but that will be rectified when the new C/D concourse is built. The runway layout is fantastic and currently underutilized, which leaves lots of room for growth. And since these are already sunk costs, it will mean less to spend to build the C/D concourse or grow the airport in general. MWAA also seems to have learned its lesson about spending and is doing a better job to keep costs in check.

As for the Silver Line, yes it is not the fastest way to get to downtown DC, but it's still an option, and one that works better than the current situation. And one need only look at the price tag of the Silver Line project as it is now to see why express tracks were not added. Those kind of projects cost a fortune, and is one that the federal government and taxpayers in the region can not or will not afford. You say it will be as slow as molasses, but as someone who commutes from Loudoun County, past IAD, to downtown DC on a daily basis, I don't think it will be that bad. I guess it's just perspective. Yes, there should have been a dedicated express train built when the airport was originally constructed, but that wasn't done. Even if it had been built, I'm sure there would be plenty of travelers who hated it and thought it took too long. You can't please everyone.
 
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cranberrysaus
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Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:31 pm

Will IAD end up being a shorter or longer train trip from downtown DC than BWI?
 
blockski
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Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:37 pm

msp747 wrote:
Antarius wrote:
blockski wrote:

The problem here is the category - YMX doesn't fit. NRT isn't a great example, either.

The better comparisons to IAD are already here in the US: ORD, IAH, DFW... All airports planned for the Jet Age, meant to succeed small and hard-to-expand older airports (MDW, HOU, DAL, and DCA) with larger sites, longer runways, new facilities, etc.

Likewise, if the complaint about IAD isn't that it's a new airport, but 'how it was done' I'm not sure how you reconcile the completely different outcomes for IAD, NRT, and YMX.


Im not sure how the outcome of IAD in any way overlaps with the others. ORD, IAH, DFW are hugely successful airports. DFW is busting at its seams and planning a new terminal, ORD is a fight for more gates etc.

YMX is an extreme case, but only because the government finally stopped pushing a bad idea. The market can and will abandon IAD and NRT to the maximum ability given the choice. No one would leave IAH, ORD or DFW.

So, yea, the issue isnt that they built IAD - it just wasn't done well.


I don't think you'll find many people who defend the airport how it was envisioned. It was built where it is because it was a whole lot easier to wipe out an African American community than it was a white one. It was built in an era where this country shunned mass transit and thought the automobile was the only mode of transportation with a future. The airport was also designed in an era when there was no security and flying was still for the few and only the elite. The mistakes are many and pretty obvious.


Yes - good points about the social history of why Dulles is where it is. The other thing to remember about airport design was that things were really in flux then! The jet age was brand new, there weren't a lot of standards to refer to - and very few case studies of best practices for jet-age airport design. The business model for both airports and airlines was also changing rapidly. Lots of the design mistakes for a place like Dulles are only mistakes in retrospect.

It's also worth remembering what Dulles got right. They nailed the airfield geometry. They haven't really had to change a thing since the initial airfield opened - not bad for stuff planned in the mid-1950s. They also provided a flexible concept that provided enough room to adjust when the original mobile lounge model proved ineffective.

Contrast IAD to some of the challenges faced at ORD or DFW. ORD's original airfield concept hasn't survived; DFW's terminal concept likewise wasn't a winner. It's not as it the other airports planned and designed in the same era were batting 1.000 either.

Despite the complaints about being far away, the other legacy of both the direct airport planning as well as the surrounding land use planning is that the areas under the approaches have been mostly limited to non-residential development because of noise. This kind of proactive planning can only take place on decades-long time scales.
 
dcaproducer
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Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:19 pm

cranberrysaus wrote:
Will IAD end up being a shorter or longer train trip from downtown DC than BWI?


Metro doesn't run to BWI. The Silver Line will go right up to the terminal at IAD. You can take Amtrak or MARC to BWI, but you need to hop on a shuttle from the train station to the terminal.
If you were starting both journey's at Union Station, I'd bet MARC is faster, but it doesn't have all of the stops the Silver Line will have.
 
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msp747
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Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:23 pm

blockski wrote:
msp747 wrote:
Antarius wrote:

Im not sure how the outcome of IAD in any way overlaps with the others. ORD, IAH, DFW are hugely successful airports. DFW is busting at its seams and planning a new terminal, ORD is a fight for more gates etc.

YMX is an extreme case, but only because the government finally stopped pushing a bad idea. The market can and will abandon IAD and NRT to the maximum ability given the choice. No one would leave IAH, ORD or DFW.

So, yea, the issue isnt that they built IAD - it just wasn't done well.


I don't think you'll find many people who defend the airport how it was envisioned. It was built where it is because it was a whole lot easier to wipe out an African American community than it was a white one. It was built in an era where this country shunned mass transit and thought the automobile was the only mode of transportation with a future. The airport was also designed in an era when there was no security and flying was still for the few and only the elite. The mistakes are many and pretty obvious.


Yes - good points about the social history of why Dulles is where it is. The other thing to remember about airport design was that things were really in flux then! The jet age was brand new, there weren't a lot of standards to refer to - and very few case studies of best practices for jet-age airport design. The business model for both airports and airlines was also changing rapidly. Lots of the design mistakes for a place like Dulles are only mistakes in retrospect.

It's also worth remembering what Dulles got right. They nailed the airfield geometry. They haven't really had to change a thing since the initial airfield opened - not bad for stuff planned in the mid-1950s. They also provided a flexible concept that provided enough room to adjust when the original mobile lounge model proved ineffective.

Contrast IAD to some of the challenges faced at ORD or DFW. ORD's original airfield concept hasn't survived; DFW's terminal concept likewise wasn't a winner. It's not as it the other airports planned and designed in the same era were batting 1.000 either.

Despite the complaints about being far away, the other legacy of both the direct airport planning as well as the surrounding land use planning is that the areas under the approaches have been mostly limited to non-residential development because of noise. This kind of proactive planning can only take place on decades-long time scales.

Oh, I didn't mean to make it sound like they didn't get anything right or there wasn't a reason for some of the mistakes. I agree the airfield geometry and large amount of land were very good decisions that will help in the future. Another good decision: The design of the Saarinen Terminal. Not only is it an iconic looking structure, but it is expandable and very flexible, which should keep it functional well into the future while other classic terminals from that era have basically become museum pieces or been torn down altogether.

As DCA350 mentioned earlier in this thread, the current Concourse B (and non-regional gate part of A) is fantastic and a good model for a future C/D. I think once that concourse becomes a reality (I'm hoping with UA's talk about growth that it comes sooner than later), it will put an end to a fair amount of complaining about Dulles.
 
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msp747
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Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:39 pm

dcaproducer wrote:
cranberrysaus wrote:
Will IAD end up being a shorter or longer train trip from downtown DC than BWI?


Metro doesn't run to BWI. The Silver Line will go right up to the terminal at IAD. You can take Amtrak or MARC to BWI, but you need to hop on a shuttle from the train station to the terminal.
If you were starting both journey's at Union Station, I'd bet MARC is faster, but it doesn't have all of the stops the Silver Line will have.


The only drawback with MARC is the schedule is not as frequent as Metro service, so you have to be more strategic about getting there. Outside of peak commuting times, Amtrak is more frequent than MARC, but I don't know the cost difference. I believe there is only 1 stop on Amtrak before you get to BWI.

As for driving, I think it's funny that people complain about the trek to Dulles, when half of the trip from downtown is in the Airport lanes (which have little traffic), while no one seems to bash the drive from DC to BWI, despite the fact that I-95 and the BW Parkway are often bumper to bumper traffic.
 
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cranberrysaus
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Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:44 pm

dcaproducer wrote:
cranberrysaus wrote:
Will IAD end up being a shorter or longer train trip from downtown DC than BWI?


Metro doesn't run to BWI. The Silver Line will go right up to the terminal at IAD. You can take Amtrak or MARC to BWI, but you need to hop on a shuttle from the train station to the terminal.
If you were starting both journey's at Union Station, I'd bet MARC is faster, but it doesn't have all of the stops the Silver Line will have.


Oh I didn't realize you had to take a shuttle between BWI and the train station. I guess a one seat ride will be nice once the silver line extension opens.
 
NiMar
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Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Thu Aug 22, 2019 9:31 pm

Dulles would work even better if there were a more direct Potomac river crossing from Montgomery County on, say, Rte 28. As it stands one has to go over the American Legion Bridge of the Beltway and endure awful traffic most of the day.
 
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ChaseCLT
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Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Thu Aug 22, 2019 10:41 pm

cranberrysaus wrote:
Will IAD end up being a shorter or longer train trip from downtown DC than BWI?


Maybe the same but. The MARC/Amtrak has garbage frequencies. Especially weekends.

The silver line will be a very welcome addition. I work in Tyson’s and most of our people prefer to Just go out of IAD. There are, what, 6 Fortune 500 HQs or so on top of many other white collar jobs. The silver line will be useful for all those folks.
 
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jetblastdubai
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Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Thu Aug 22, 2019 10:46 pm

dcaproducer wrote:
but it doesn't have all of the stops the Silver Line will have.


Does anyone have a ballpark figure on how long the ride will be out to IAD?

The loop to ORD is close to an hour and no one seems to have an issue with that since many times the train flies by traffic stalled on the freeway. It's close to impossible to plan a trip when auto travel times vary so much. The train takes the same time regardless of time of day or rush hour. Travel times and airport parking fees or taxi/Uber costs ought to make even the longest train trip tolerable.
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dcaproducer
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Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Fri Aug 23, 2019 12:22 am

jetblastdubai wrote:
dcaproducer wrote:
but it doesn't have all of the stops the Silver Line will have.


Does anyone have a ballpark figure on how long the ride will be out to IAD?

The loop to ORD is close to an hour and no one seems to have an issue with that since many times the train flies by traffic stalled on the freeway. It's close to impossible to plan a trip when auto travel times vary so much. The train takes the same time regardless of time of day or rush hour. Travel times and airport parking fees or taxi/Uber costs ought to make even the longest train trip tolerable.


WMATA.com trip planner puts WIEHLE-RESTON EAST METRO STATION to METRO CENTER STATION at 41 minutes. Add another 15-20 and you’re at Dulles. So that’s about 1hr from downtown to IAD.
 
USAirALB
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Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Fri Aug 23, 2019 12:34 am

My only fear with the Silver Line is that ridership past Wiehle-Reston East will be so poor that Metro will eventually adopt a different type of frequency for the Silver Line or perhaps run every other Silver Line train to Reston or some other terminus.

Outside of rush-hour, I can’t imagine Ashburn and stations past IAD to be too popular. The area is relatively still rural, especially for rapid transit standards. Ashburn station IIRC is closer to Harpers Ferry, WV than downtown DC.
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Antarius
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Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Fri Aug 23, 2019 12:42 am

msp747 wrote:
IAD is the airport people love to hate and nothing the airport ever does will change that.


Probably because there are reasons for it. People dont wake up in the morning thinking about which airport to hate.

But it's easier to act like theres a bunch of agenda malcontents and that is why IAD has been a historical failure.
2019: SIN HKG NRT DFW IAH HOU CLT LGA JFK SFO SJC EWR SNA EYW MIA BOG LAX ORD DTW OAK PVG BOS DCA IAD ATL LAS BIS CUN PHX OAK SYD CVG PHL MAD ORY CDG SLC SJU BQN MHT YYZ STS BIS DOH BLR KTM MFM MEX MSY BWI DEN
 
DCA-ROCguy
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Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Fri Aug 23, 2019 12:49 am

Antarius wrote:
msp747 wrote:
IAD is the airport people love to hate and nothing the airport ever does will change that.

Probably because there are reasons for it. People dont wake up in the morning thinking about which airport to hate.
But it's easier to act like theres a bunch of agenda malcontents and that is why IAD has been a historical failure.


:checkmark:

IAD will never be a preferred airport for most of the DC area / DMV because it was built too far out. Period. And the Federal government screwed up by not providing space for express trains. It's a long slog before one gets anywhere near those nice Toll Road center lanes. And a 20-ish stop metro trip from downtown is never going to be fast. IAD will never be convenient for most of the area because of these mistakes.

Fortunately, IAD's strengths--great layout for a hub, and DC's coastal-city / economic-winner economy generating lots of international traffic for it--mean a bright future. Despite everything MWAA has done to sabotage it.

Jim
Need a new airline paint scheme? Better call Saul! (Bass that is)
 
GSP psgr
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Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Fri Aug 23, 2019 1:25 am

msp747 wrote:
Antarius wrote:
blockski wrote:

The problem here is the category - YMX doesn't fit. NRT isn't a great example, either.

The better comparisons to IAD are already here in the US: ORD, IAH, DFW... All airports planned for the Jet Age, meant to succeed small and hard-to-expand older airports (MDW, HOU, DAL, and DCA) with larger sites, longer runways, new facilities, etc.

Likewise, if the complaint about IAD isn't that it's a new airport, but 'how it was done' I'm not sure how you reconcile the completely different outcomes for IAD, NRT, and YMX.


Im not sure how the outcome of IAD in any way overlaps with the others. ORD, IAH, DFW are hugely successful airports. DFW is busting at its seams and planning a new terminal, ORD is a fight for more gates etc.

YMX is an extreme case, but only because the government finally stopped pushing a bad idea. The market can and will abandon IAD and NRT to the maximum ability given the choice. No one would leave IAH, ORD or DFW.

So, yea, the issue isnt that they built IAD - it just wasn't done well.


I don't think you'll find many people who defend the airport how it was envisioned. It was built where it is because it was a whole lot easier to wipe out an African American community than it was a white one. It was built in an era where this country shunned mass transit and thought the automobile was the only mode of transportation with a future. The airport was also designed in an era when there was no security and flying was still for the few and only the elite. The mistakes are many and pretty obvious.

However, the airport WAS built, so I think people need to stop dwelling on the mistakes of the past and look at what's being done to fix them. It seems pretty obvious that MWAA is redesigning the airport to work with current and future travel needs, and has the space to do so. The linear concourses are an efficient layout, especially for an airport with a hub (a hub that is, at least for now, growing). The mobile lounges and old security stations got the job done, but not well, and didn't leave room for growth. The AeroTrain and new security layout will accommodate that. Yes, the train currently requires a walk (something I don't mind), but that will be rectified when the new C/D concourse is built. The runway layout is fantastic and currently underutilized, which leaves lots of room for growth. And since these are already sunk costs, it will mean less to spend to build the C/D concourse or grow the airport in general. MWAA also seems to have learned its lesson about spending and is doing a better job to keep costs in check.


I'd feel more warmly towards IAD if once you got there the place wasn't a horribly unfriendly rat maze from beginning to end. So many escalators, stairs, ups, downs, and long walks just ti get from ticketing to your gate. I'm especially not a fan of the giant hole where security is currently. For an airport that is meant to emulate a DEN or ATL, from an O&D perspective, it ends up exceedingly far from the mark.
 
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Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Fri Aug 23, 2019 1:36 am

USAirALB wrote:
My only fear with the Silver Line is that ridership past Wiehle-Reston East will be so poor that Metro will eventually adopt a different type of frequency for the Silver Line or perhaps run every other Silver Line train to Reston or some other terminus.

Outside of rush-hour, I can’t imagine Ashburn and stations past IAD to be too popular. The area is relatively still rural, especially for rapid transit standards. Ashburn station IIRC is closer to Harpers Ferry, WV than downtown DC.


Loudoun County is growing at an incredible rate. They’re approaching 500k residents. I don’t think this will be a major issue.
The county’s population has tripled since 2000.
 
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Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Fri Aug 23, 2019 4:46 am

NiMar wrote:
Dulles would work even better if there were a more direct Potomac river crossing from Montgomery County on, say, Rte 28. As it stands one has to go over the American Legion Bridge of the Beltway and endure awful traffic most of the day.


Given the tech corridors along both 270 and the Toll Road, not to mention IAD, such a bridge would be a great idea. But there's opposition in MoCo to a highway through the "agricultural reserve" farmland in the southwestern part of the county to cross the river and meet up with the Toll Road corridor. This article from April 2019 suggests there won't be a bridge soon.

Jim

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msp747
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Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Fri Aug 23, 2019 5:02 am

USAirALB wrote:
My only fear with the Silver Line is that ridership past Wiehle-Reston East will be so poor that Metro will eventually adopt a different type of frequency for the Silver Line or perhaps run every other Silver Line train to Reston or some other terminus.

Outside of rush-hour, I can’t imagine Ashburn and stations past IAD to be too popular. The area is relatively still rural, especially for rapid transit standards. Ashburn station IIRC is closer to Harpers Ferry, WV than downtown DC.

I don't know the last time you were in Ashburn, but rural is not the word I would use for it anymore. I don't see how it is any different than a lot of the end of the line stations. That said, if they did decide to turn some trains around early, the end would be at IAD, not in Reston.
 
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Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Fri Aug 23, 2019 5:50 am

Antarius wrote:
msp747 wrote:
IAD is the airport people love to hate and nothing the airport ever does will change that.


Probably because there are reasons for it. People dont wake up in the morning thinking about which airport to hate.

But it's easier to act like theres a bunch of agenda malcontents and that is why IAD has been a historical failure.

The first message you posted in this thread is that Dulles is only used because people are forced to use it. My comment was not saying there are a bunch of agenda malcontents, it was just pointing out there are plenty of people who make ridiculous statements like that.

I have never once said IAD should be the preferred airport of DC, and I am well aware that a majority of people in DC prefer DCA. But the fact remains that IAD serves a purpose and will help handle growth in this region, since DCA is pretty limited in how much it can grow (even if the perimeter rule went away) and it will never be able to handle overseas traffic. If you don't see that, or refuse to accept that, then maybe you're the one with the agenda.
 
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Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Fri Aug 23, 2019 2:43 pm

Issues may be, I think that having a choice of three airports - all with mass transit links - will be awesome.
 
dcaproducer
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Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Fri Aug 23, 2019 2:58 pm

IAD will do well because the Herndon/Reston corridor continues to grow. Loudoun county continues to grow.
If you live west or north of Tysons, IAD is easier to get to than DCA. If you live in Prince George's County, College Park, east of the District, BWI is the easiest option. If you live central, DCA is super convenient.

And for those who haven't been to the Dulles and Loudoun Co. area in a while, you should revisit. In Ashburn alone, the public school system opens (2) new schools next week. The county is nowhere near the "rural" community it was 20 years ago.
 
phugoid1982
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Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Fri Aug 23, 2019 4:52 pm

I volunteer at the Smithsonian Udvar-Hazy center near dulles and love going up to the tower and watching approaches to the ones (1L,1C,1R) when all of them are in use simultaneously. Absolutely brilliant runway layout. On the other hand, everytime I go to spot at Gravelly point near Reagan I feel like I always witness multiple go arounds due potential runway incursions or screwing up the final turn doing the River Visual and when I see the crosswind runway 33 in use for landings especially with the 737-8 coming I'm glad for max autobrake. I'm not saying there is imminent danger present but if Reagan continues to grow frequency wise will the potential for a disaster increase given the tight separation and challenging approaches. As someone who lives in NW DC I wouldn't mind if more traffic moved to IAD to ease congestion although a Shinkasen type train to the airport would be most welcome. Las time I was at Dulles it took me 1 hr and 40 mins. To get back home
 
Antarius
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Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Fri Aug 23, 2019 5:56 pm

msp747 wrote:
Antarius wrote:
msp747 wrote:
IAD is the airport people love to hate and nothing the airport ever does will change that.


Probably because there are reasons for it. People dont wake up in the morning thinking about which airport to hate.

But it's easier to act like theres a bunch of agenda malcontents and that is why IAD has been a historical failure.

The first message you posted in this thread is that Dulles is only used because people are forced to use it. My comment was not saying there are a bunch of agenda malcontents, it was just pointing out there are plenty of people who make ridiculous statements like that.

I have never once said IAD should be the preferred airport of DC, and I am well aware that a majority of people in DC prefer DCA. But the fact remains that IAD serves a purpose and will help handle growth in this region, since DCA is pretty limited in how much it can grow (even if the perimeter rule went away) and it will never be able to handle overseas traffic. If you don't see that, or refuse to accept that, then maybe you're the one with the agenda.


It is not a ridiculous statement. Remove the perimeter rule and see what happens. Premium domestic traffic will shift in the same way that HND is changing routes for NRT. Next, remove the ban on international flights and you likely will see NB intl traffic as well.

DCA cannot replace IAD entirely due to runway and space constraints, but IAD is propped up by restrictions on DCA. Remove them and the market will rebalance heavily in DCA's favor.

IAD could become a more favorable airport for customers, but instead of properly investing in a HSR, there is a slow metro, which will likely follow the path of slow metros to airports in other cities and materially change nothing.
2019: SIN HKG NRT DFW IAH HOU CLT LGA JFK SFO SJC EWR SNA EYW MIA BOG LAX ORD DTW OAK PVG BOS DCA IAD ATL LAS BIS CUN PHX OAK SYD CVG PHL MAD ORY CDG SLC SJU BQN MHT YYZ STS BIS DOH BLR KTM MFM MEX MSY BWI DEN
 
DCA-ROCguy
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Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Fri Aug 23, 2019 6:06 pm

The current balance of traffic between DCA and IAD seems to me to serve the public well. DCA is not HND. DCA does not have the terminal or apron capacity, or runway length, to serve the types or volume of traffic HND has taken on. DCA is a small downtown airport, not a big former international airport that got restricted when a bigger, newer international airport opened.

The perimeter rule at DCA with a few slots to cover major beyond-perimeter West Coast destinations that can economically use them, serves the public well. Smaller, closer, and transborder markets who get much more value out of flights on the shorter distances to DCA have service to downtown, while international traffic, whose passengers are less sensitive to distance, has the large international airport. Plus, the catchment area around that international airport is not small and helps support the United hub.

Airports are public facilities run for the benefit of the public. The public rightly and properly regulates how these limited resources are used. In the DCA area, the downtown airport is rightly limited by perimeter, as well as by slots to keep it from being congested.

Jim
Need a new airline paint scheme? Better call Saul! (Bass that is)
 
Antarius
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Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Fri Aug 23, 2019 6:10 pm

DCA-ROCguy wrote:
Airports are public facilities run for the benefit of the public. The public rightly and properly regulates how these limited resources are used. In the DCA area, the downtown airport is rightly limited by perimeter, as well as by slots to keep it from being congested.


Slots I understand, but the perimeter rule exists solely to prop up IAD, much like the Wright Amendment was done for DFW at the expense of DAL. How does it benefit consumers by forcing them to go to IAD or taking a connection if they want to go to the west coast outside of the limited perimeter slots?
2019: SIN HKG NRT DFW IAH HOU CLT LGA JFK SFO SJC EWR SNA EYW MIA BOG LAX ORD DTW OAK PVG BOS DCA IAD ATL LAS BIS CUN PHX OAK SYD CVG PHL MAD ORY CDG SLC SJU BQN MHT YYZ STS BIS DOH BLR KTM MFM MEX MSY BWI DEN
 
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Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Fri Aug 23, 2019 6:21 pm

ITSTours wrote:
A new train service directly connecting IAD and DCA is needed. Let's call it a bronze line. This will strongly help the commute to the new Amazon campus from IAD that will be next to DCA. As orange, silver and blue lines all merge into Rosslyn, this is not a difficult idea.


Amazon would have to build it, coz if left to city government you would not see this till sometime around 2120 or even later.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Fri Aug 23, 2019 6:44 pm

During my years living in the DMV area, I always preferred flying out of BWI just because everything is connected. If I was 2 hours early for an AA flight, I could go to the main terminal, eat, and slowly make my way over to the gate area. DCA didn't provide me the same luxury: once you were inside a terminal area, there was no hopping over to others (you could take a shuttle bus, but in reality it's more efficient to walk). IAD was OK; it was just too far from SoMD (took me almost 2 hours to reach the airport).

Glad to see, though, that IAD is growing again. If I had lived closer to the DC metro area, I would have picked IAD to fly any time.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
blockski
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Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Fri Aug 23, 2019 7:29 pm

Antarius wrote:
msp747 wrote:
Antarius wrote:

Probably because there are reasons for it. People dont wake up in the morning thinking about which airport to hate.

But it's easier to act like theres a bunch of agenda malcontents and that is why IAD has been a historical failure.

The first message you posted in this thread is that Dulles is only used because people are forced to use it. My comment was not saying there are a bunch of agenda malcontents, it was just pointing out there are plenty of people who make ridiculous statements like that.

I have never once said IAD should be the preferred airport of DC, and I am well aware that a majority of people in DC prefer DCA. But the fact remains that IAD serves a purpose and will help handle growth in this region, since DCA is pretty limited in how much it can grow (even if the perimeter rule went away) and it will never be able to handle overseas traffic. If you don't see that, or refuse to accept that, then maybe you're the one with the agenda.


It is not a ridiculous statement. Remove the perimeter rule and see what happens. Premium domestic traffic will shift in the same way that HND is changing routes for NRT. Next, remove the ban on international flights and you likely will see NB intl traffic as well.

DCA cannot replace IAD entirely due to runway and space constraints, but IAD is propped up by restrictions on DCA. Remove them and the market will rebalance heavily in DCA's favor.

IAD could become a more favorable airport for customers, but instead of properly investing in a HSR, there is a slow metro, which will likely follow the path of slow metros to airports in other cities and materially change nothing.


You can't just remove restrictions on DCA. DCA is constrained, and those constraints aren't going to change. This was quite clear almost as soon as DCA opened, which is why the planning for what became Dulles started shortly thereafter.

Even if you removed the perimeter rule, DCA is still constrained. Slots aren't going away. The runway also isn't particularly long - it's not going to be a long-haul hub, with or without the perimeter rule. Likewise, there is no ban on international flights. There are quite a few of them in and out of DCA as it is - they're just all from preclearance airports. And there's absolutely no reason to add FIS facilities at DCA. The various authorities already solved this problem when they built IAD.

Also, even if you did remove the perimeter rule, you'd give a big gift to AA, but it's not like that would mean the end of IAD. Liberalizing HND hasn't meant the end of NRT, either. Narita is actually growing! Again, Mirabel is a exceptional case. Removing the perimeter would be incredibly destabilizing (which is why MWAA opposes it), but what I expect would happen would be a) lots of DCA routes shift to transcon flights, b) lots of smaller markets lose access to DCA entirely, c) some of those small market routes shift to IAD, where the path to success is as a connecting hub, and d) the international traffic remains at IAD.

In practice, what MWAA has written into their leases and what they've indicated they'd do in the event of the demise of the perimeter rule would be to try to auction off those beyond-perimeter rights and use the proceeds to support IAD in the transition.

MWAA's legal mandate is to operate both airports as a coherent and complementary system, not as competitors to one another.
 
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msp747
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Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Fri Aug 23, 2019 8:08 pm

Antarius wrote:
msp747 wrote:
Antarius wrote:

Probably because there are reasons for it. People dont wake up in the morning thinking about which airport to hate.

But it's easier to act like theres a bunch of agenda malcontents and that is why IAD has been a historical failure.

The first message you posted in this thread is that Dulles is only used because people are forced to use it. My comment was not saying there are a bunch of agenda malcontents, it was just pointing out there are plenty of people who make ridiculous statements like that.

I have never once said IAD should be the preferred airport of DC, and I am well aware that a majority of people in DC prefer DCA. But the fact remains that IAD serves a purpose and will help handle growth in this region, since DCA is pretty limited in how much it can grow (even if the perimeter rule went away) and it will never be able to handle overseas traffic. If you don't see that, or refuse to accept that, then maybe you're the one with the agenda.


It is not a ridiculous statement. Remove the perimeter rule and see what happens. Premium domestic traffic will shift in the same way that HND is changing routes for NRT. Next, remove the ban on international flights and you likely will see NB intl traffic as well.

DCA cannot replace IAD entirely due to runway and space constraints, but IAD is propped up by restrictions on DCA. Remove them and the market will rebalance heavily in DCA's favor.

IAD could become a more favorable airport for customers, but instead of properly investing in a HSR, there is a slow metro, which will likely follow the path of slow metros to airports in other cities and materially change nothing.


What premium market is currently without service due to the perimeter rule? Just about every major city outside of the zone has service and some have service from more than one airline. So how are you FORCED to go to IAD? United offers service from DCA to all its hubs other than LAX (and IAD), yet those markets are still served from IAD.

If you eliminated the perimeter rule, things would change, but it wouldn't doom IAD because DCA would still be slot restricted. Sure, AA could boost their service to LAX by 10 flights a day and add non-stops to other west coast cities, but that would most likely mean the end of several small to midsize markets that currently have DCA service. AA would have to find those slots somewhere. It's the same story for the other airlines that have a smaller presence. Does DL trim back service to its hubs to add more west coast service? Does it trim back those new BOS flights? In the end, DCA would have more options to major western cities but would serve fewer destinations in the east and midwest. That traffic would have to move to IAD, but not because the airlines were forced to, but because they chose to use their slots differently. The UA hub survived the last wave of perimeter slots that were handed out, and that's when UA couldn't decide what it wanted to do with IAD. Now that it is building it up into a stronger hub, with more connecting traffic, it would have to adjust some things, but it wouldn't disappear.

As for the international traffic thing, you again run into a slot issue, not a rules issue. There are simply not enough slots to replace the traffic at IAD. Let's look at IAD-LHR for today. UA has 3 flights (752/788/777), BA has 2 (777/747), and VS has 1 (333). So how many extra slots would be needed to replace those 5 WB flights, on top of the 1 slot pair to cover the 6th 752 flight? And that's just looking at ONE market. In what alternate reality in your head can DCA cover all of that? I suppose they could find room for an international flight here or there, but like the premium BA flights from LCY have not spelled doom for LHR, DCA's size, runway configuration, and slots will keep it from replacing IAD on the international front.

The problem with your arguments is they are based too much on your personal preferences, and not enough on facts. YOU have no need for IAD, therefore NO ONE has a need for IAD. The facts above show why your original statement was ridiculous. Just accept that there is room for 3 airports in the DC region, that each serves a purpose, and that you don't have to use any one you don't want to.
 
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msp747
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Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Fri Aug 23, 2019 8:22 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
During my years living in the DMV area, I always preferred flying out of BWI just because everything is connected. If I was 2 hours early for an AA flight, I could go to the main terminal, eat, and slowly make my way over to the gate area. DCA didn't provide me the same luxury: once you were inside a terminal area, there was no hopping over to others (you could take a shuttle bus, but in reality it's more efficient to walk). IAD was OK; it was just too far from SoMD (took me almost 2 hours to reach the airport).

Glad to see, though, that IAD is growing again. If I had lived closer to the DC metro area, I would have picked IAD to fly any time.

I have only flown out of BWI once, but I did really like it. Concourse A was great, and I did like being able to walk around to the other concourses. Like your issue getting to IAD, it's just not worth it for me to drive all the way from Loudoun County, especially when the fares are not much different than what I would pay at IAD.

I also agree with your comments about the security setup at DCA, but those days are numbered. I know everyone likes to talk about the new regional concourse at DCA, but to me, the new security setup is a much bigger deal that will make life a lot easier for travelers. Hopefully it will make the piers a little less crowded too, but that may be wishful thinking on my part.
 
dcaproducer
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Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Fri Aug 23, 2019 8:34 pm

msp747 wrote:
einsteinboricua wrote:
During my years living in the DMV area, I always preferred flying out of BWI just because everything is connected. If I was 2 hours early for an AA flight, I could go to the main terminal, eat, and slowly make my way over to the gate area. DCA didn't provide me the same luxury: once you were inside a terminal area, there was no hopping over to others (you could take a shuttle bus, but in reality it's more efficient to walk). IAD was OK; it was just too far from SoMD (took me almost 2 hours to reach the airport).

Glad to see, though, that IAD is growing again. If I had lived closer to the DC metro area, I would have picked IAD to fly any time.

I have only flown out of BWI once, but I did really like it. Concourse A was great, and I did like being able to walk around to the other concourses. Like your issue getting to IAD, it's just not worth it for me to drive all the way from Loudoun County, especially when the fares are not much different than what I would pay at IAD.

I also agree with your comments about the security setup at DCA, but those days are numbered. I know everyone likes to talk about the new regional concourse at DCA, but to me, the new security setup is a much bigger deal that will make life a lot easier for travelers. Hopefully it will make the piers a little less crowded too, but that may be wishful thinking on my part.


The new National Hall with combined security is going to make a big difference at DCA. This will benefit all travelers, not just the folks on AA regional flights using the new gates.

IAD will always serve as the main international airport in DC. They have the space. That is a huge issue at DCA.
 
Antarius
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Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Fri Aug 23, 2019 8:44 pm

blockski wrote:
Antarius wrote:
msp747 wrote:
The first message you posted in this thread is that Dulles is only used because people are forced to use it. My comment was not saying there are a bunch of agenda malcontents, it was just pointing out there are plenty of people who make ridiculous statements like that.

I have never once said IAD should be the preferred airport of DC, and I am well aware that a majority of people in DC prefer DCA. But the fact remains that IAD serves a purpose and will help handle growth in this region, since DCA is pretty limited in how much it can grow (even if the perimeter rule went away) and it will never be able to handle overseas traffic. If you don't see that, or refuse to accept that, then maybe you're the one with the agenda.


It is not a ridiculous statement. Remove the perimeter rule and see what happens. Premium domestic traffic will shift in the same way that HND is changing routes for NRT. Next, remove the ban on international flights and you likely will see NB intl traffic as well.

DCA cannot replace IAD entirely due to runway and space constraints, but IAD is propped up by restrictions on DCA. Remove them and the market will rebalance heavily in DCA's favor.

IAD could become a more favorable airport for customers, but instead of properly investing in a HSR, there is a slow metro, which will likely follow the path of slow metros to airports in other cities and materially change nothing.


You can't just remove restrictions on DCA. DCA is constrained, and those constraints aren't going to change. This was quite clear almost as soon as DCA opened, which is why the planning for what became Dulles started shortly thereafter.

Even if you removed the perimeter rule, DCA is still constrained. Slots aren't going away. The runway also isn't particularly long - it's not going to be a long-haul hub, with or without the perimeter rule. Likewise, there is no ban on international flights. There are quite a few of them in and out of DCA as it is - they're just all from preclearance airports. And there's absolutely no reason to add FIS facilities at DCA. The various authorities already solved this problem when they built IAD.

Also, even if you did remove the perimeter rule, you'd give a big gift to AA, but it's not like that would mean the end of IAD. Liberalizing HND hasn't meant the end of NRT, either. Narita is actually growing! Again, Mirabel is a exceptional case. Removing the perimeter would be incredibly destabilizing (which is why MWAA opposes it), but what I expect would happen would be a) lots of DCA routes shift to transcon flights, b) lots of smaller markets lose access to DCA entirely, c) some of those small market routes shift to IAD, where the path to success is as a connecting hub, and d) the international traffic remains at IAD.

In practice, what MWAA has written into their leases and what they've indicated they'd do in the event of the demise of the perimeter rule would be to try to auction off those beyond-perimeter rights and use the proceeds to support IAD in the transition.

MWAA's legal mandate is to operate both airports as a coherent and complementary system, not as competitors to one another.


No one said anything about eliminating slots or the possibility of doing so. Nor am I claiming that DCA becomes an international widebody hub. I'm simply saying that consumers and the market can decide the purpose of each airport. If IAD can stand on its own, then there is zero need for these rules. And yes, NRT is growing as is every single airport on earth.

To the bolded point, thank you for making my point for me. MWAA's goal is and continues to be propping up IAD at the expense of DC consumers. IAD can continue to complement DCA - just not in an artificially propped up way.
Last edited by Antarius on Fri Aug 23, 2019 9:07 pm, edited 2 times in total.
2019: SIN HKG NRT DFW IAH HOU CLT LGA JFK SFO SJC EWR SNA EYW MIA BOG LAX ORD DTW OAK PVG BOS DCA IAD ATL LAS BIS CUN PHX OAK SYD CVG PHL MAD ORY CDG SLC SJU BQN MHT YYZ STS BIS DOH BLR KTM MFM MEX MSY BWI DEN
 
Antarius
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Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Fri Aug 23, 2019 8:56 pm

msp747 wrote:
Antarius wrote:
msp747 wrote:
The first message you posted in this thread is that Dulles is only used because people are forced to use it. My comment was not saying there are a bunch of agenda malcontents, it was just pointing out there are plenty of people who make ridiculous statements like that.

I have never once said IAD should be the preferred airport of DC, and I am well aware that a majority of people in DC prefer DCA. But the fact remains that IAD serves a purpose and will help handle growth in this region, since DCA is pretty limited in how much it can grow (even if the perimeter rule went away) and it will never be able to handle overseas traffic. If you don't see that, or refuse to accept that, then maybe you're the one with the agenda.


It is not a ridiculous statement. Remove the perimeter rule and see what happens. Premium domestic traffic will shift in the same way that HND is changing routes for NRT. Next, remove the ban on international flights and you likely will see NB intl traffic as well.

DCA cannot replace IAD entirely due to runway and space constraints, but IAD is propped up by restrictions on DCA. Remove them and the market will rebalance heavily in DCA's favor.

IAD could become a more favorable airport for customers, but instead of properly investing in a HSR, there is a slow metro, which will likely follow the path of slow metros to airports in other cities and materially change nothing.


What premium market is currently without service due to the perimeter rule? Just about every major city outside of the zone has service and some have service from more than one airline. So how are you FORCED to go to IAD? United offers service from DCA to all its hubs other than LAX (and IAD), yet those markets are still served from IAD.

If you eliminated the perimeter rule, things would change, but it wouldn't doom IAD because DCA would still be slot restricted. Sure, AA could boost their service to LAX by 10 flights a day and add non-stops to other west coast cities, but that would most likely mean the end of several small to midsize markets that currently have DCA service. AA would have to find those slots somewhere. It's the same story for the other airlines that have a smaller presence. Does DL trim back service to its hubs to add more west coast service? Does it trim back those new BOS flights? In the end, DCA would have more options to major western cities but would serve fewer destinations in the east and midwest. That traffic would have to move to IAD, but not because the airlines were forced to, but because they chose to use their slots differently. The UA hub survived the last wave of perimeter slots that were handed out, and that's when UA couldn't decide what it wanted to do with IAD. Now that it is building it up into a stronger hub, with more connecting traffic, it would have to adjust some things, but it wouldn't disappear.

As for the international traffic thing, you again run into a slot issue, not a rules issue. There are simply not enough slots to replace the traffic at IAD. Let's look at IAD-LHR for today. UA has 3 flights (752/788/777), BA has 2 (777/747), and VS has 1 (333). So how many extra slots would be needed to replace those 5 WB flights, on top of the 1 slot pair to cover the 6th 752 flight? And that's just looking at ONE market. In what alternate reality in your head can DCA cover all of that? I suppose they could find room for an international flight here or there, but like the premium BA flights from LCY have not spelled doom for LHR, DCA's size, runway configuration, and slots will keep it from replacing IAD on the international front.


Then let the market dictate it. Slots are here to stay, why do we need to add extra rules. If you are so confident that slots are the reason that DCA will not replace IAD for high-demand routes, then let it happen.. nothing should change. Instead, we have what amounts to a anti-Wright Amendment argument here.

msp747 wrote:
The problem with your arguments is they are based too much on your personal preferences, and not enough on facts. YOU have no need for IAD, therefore NO ONE has a need for IAD. The facts above show why your original statement was ridiculous. Just accept that there is room for 3 airports in the DC region, that each serves a purpose, and that you don't have to use any one you don't want to.


I don't personally care. I don't live in DC or go there super often, so nice try to cast away my argument as "personal preference". IAD is and has been a massive failure in terms of utilization, a grandiose idea that never worked out. MWAA is only interested in band-aiding the problem and artificially holding back the market from DCA to prop up IAD. All at the expense of consumers.

If IAD is really so important, relax the rules and let's see what happens. Why so scared?
2019: SIN HKG NRT DFW IAH HOU CLT LGA JFK SFO SJC EWR SNA EYW MIA BOG LAX ORD DTW OAK PVG BOS DCA IAD ATL LAS BIS CUN PHX OAK SYD CVG PHL MAD ORY CDG SLC SJU BQN MHT YYZ STS BIS DOH BLR KTM MFM MEX MSY BWI DEN
 
DCA350
Posts: 68
Joined: Sat May 04, 2019 7:27 pm

Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Fri Aug 23, 2019 10:21 pm

msp747 wrote:
einsteinboricua wrote:
During my years living in the DMV area, I always preferred flying out of BWI just because everything is connected. If I was 2 hours early for an AA flight, I could go to the main terminal, eat, and slowly make my way over to the gate area. DCA didn't provide me the same luxury: once you were inside a terminal area, there was no hopping over to others (you could take a shuttle bus, but in reality it's more efficient to walk). IAD was OK; it was just too far from SoMD (took me almost 2 hours to reach the airport).

Glad to see, though, that IAD is growing again. If I had lived closer to the DC metro area, I would have picked IAD to fly any time.

I have only flown out of BWI once, but I did really like it. Concourse A was great, and I did like being able to walk around to the other concourses. Like your issue getting to IAD, it's just not worth it for me to drive all the way from Loudoun County, especially when the fares are not much different than what I would pay at IAD.

I also agree with your comments about the security setup at DCA, but those days are numbered. I know everyone likes to talk about the new regional concourse at DCA, but to me, the new security setup is a much bigger deal that will make life a lot easier for travelers. Hopefully it will make the piers a little less crowded too, but that may be wishful thinking on my part.


I live in NW DC and regularly fly out of all three Airports. DCA is obviously the most convenient and my preferred option while IAD is the furthest of the 3 distance wise, but I don't mind the drive depending on the time of the flight, especially if I can get a NS international flight vs a connection out of DCA.. BWI is cool but I only really go if I'm grabbing a cheap WN flight. Nice airport but other than WN they don't offer any incentive for me to go over DCA/IAD even though BWI is a physically a little closer to me than IAD. Additionally traffic to BWI can be just as bad if not worse than IAD depending on the time of day.
 
User avatar
msp747
Posts: 418
Joined: Sat May 29, 2010 6:42 pm

Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:40 pm

Antarius wrote:
msp747 wrote:
Antarius wrote:

It is not a ridiculous statement. Remove the perimeter rule and see what happens. Premium domestic traffic will shift in the same way that HND is changing routes for NRT. Next, remove the ban on international flights and you likely will see NB intl traffic as well.

DCA cannot replace IAD entirely due to runway and space constraints, but IAD is propped up by restrictions on DCA. Remove them and the market will rebalance heavily in DCA's favor.

IAD could become a more favorable airport for customers, but instead of properly investing in a HSR, there is a slow metro, which will likely follow the path of slow metros to airports in other cities and materially change nothing.


What premium market is currently without service due to the perimeter rule? Just about every major city outside of the zone has service and some have service from more than one airline. So how are you FORCED to go to IAD? United offers service from DCA to all its hubs other than LAX (and IAD), yet those markets are still served from IAD.

If you eliminated the perimeter rule, things would change, but it wouldn't doom IAD because DCA would still be slot restricted. Sure, AA could boost their service to LAX by 10 flights a day and add non-stops to other west coast cities, but that would most likely mean the end of several small to midsize markets that currently have DCA service. AA would have to find those slots somewhere. It's the same story for the other airlines that have a smaller presence. Does DL trim back service to its hubs to add more west coast service? Does it trim back those new BOS flights? In the end, DCA would have more options to major western cities but would serve fewer destinations in the east and midwest. That traffic would have to move to IAD, but not because the airlines were forced to, but because they chose to use their slots differently. The UA hub survived the last wave of perimeter slots that were handed out, and that's when UA couldn't decide what it wanted to do with IAD. Now that it is building it up into a stronger hub, with more connecting traffic, it would have to adjust some things, but it wouldn't disappear.

As for the international traffic thing, you again run into a slot issue, not a rules issue. There are simply not enough slots to replace the traffic at IAD. Let's look at IAD-LHR for today. UA has 3 flights (752/788/777), BA has 2 (777/747), and VS has 1 (333). So how many extra slots would be needed to replace those 5 WB flights, on top of the 1 slot pair to cover the 6th 752 flight? And that's just looking at ONE market. In what alternate reality in your head can DCA cover all of that? I suppose they could find room for an international flight here or there, but like the premium BA flights from LCY have not spelled doom for LHR, DCA's size, runway configuration, and slots will keep it from replacing IAD on the international front.


Then let the market dictate it. Slots are here to stay, why do we need to add extra rules. If you are so confident that slots are the reason that DCA will not replace IAD for high-demand routes, then let it happen.. nothing should change. Instead, we have what amounts to a anti-Wright Amendment argument here.

msp747 wrote:
The problem with your arguments is they are based too much on your personal preferences, and not enough on facts. YOU have no need for IAD, therefore NO ONE has a need for IAD. The facts above show why your original statement was ridiculous. Just accept that there is room for 3 airports in the DC region, that each serves a purpose, and that you don't have to use any one you don't want to.


I don't personally care. I don't live in DC or go there super often, so nice try to cast away my argument as "personal preference". IAD is and has been a massive failure in terms of utilization, a grandiose idea that never worked out. MWAA is only interested in band-aiding the problem and artificially holding back the market from DCA to prop up IAD. All at the expense of consumers.

If IAD is really so important, relax the rules and let's see what happens. Why so scared?

LOL... this is just getting sad. Why so scared? I guess in that alternate universe of yours, I personally am the overlord of MWAA and Congress and the only reason I am not getting rid of the rule is because I'm worried changing it could jeopardize my chances of winning an argument on A.Net :roll:

If you want to change it, knock yourself out. It doesn't bother me. Call your congressman. Donate money to their campaign. Start a change.org petition. Don't let me stop you. It's just I have better things to do with my time then fight to change something that doesn't bother me.
 
Antarius
Posts: 1723
Joined: Thu Apr 13, 2017 1:27 pm

Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:43 pm

msp747 wrote:
Antarius wrote:
msp747 wrote:

What premium market is currently without service due to the perimeter rule? Just about every major city outside of the zone has service and some have service from more than one airline. So how are you FORCED to go to IAD? United offers service from DCA to all its hubs other than LAX (and IAD), yet those markets are still served from IAD.

If you eliminated the perimeter rule, things would change, but it wouldn't doom IAD because DCA would still be slot restricted. Sure, AA could boost their service to LAX by 10 flights a day and add non-stops to other west coast cities, but that would most likely mean the end of several small to midsize markets that currently have DCA service. AA would have to find those slots somewhere. It's the same story for the other airlines that have a smaller presence. Does DL trim back service to its hubs to add more west coast service? Does it trim back those new BOS flights? In the end, DCA would have more options to major western cities but would serve fewer destinations in the east and midwest. That traffic would have to move to IAD, but not because the airlines were forced to, but because they chose to use their slots differently. The UA hub survived the last wave of perimeter slots that were handed out, and that's when UA couldn't decide what it wanted to do with IAD. Now that it is building it up into a stronger hub, with more connecting traffic, it would have to adjust some things, but it wouldn't disappear.

As for the international traffic thing, you again run into a slot issue, not a rules issue. There are simply not enough slots to replace the traffic at IAD. Let's look at IAD-LHR for today. UA has 3 flights (752/788/777), BA has 2 (777/747), and VS has 1 (333). So how many extra slots would be needed to replace those 5 WB flights, on top of the 1 slot pair to cover the 6th 752 flight? And that's just looking at ONE market. In what alternate reality in your head can DCA cover all of that? I suppose they could find room for an international flight here or there, but like the premium BA flights from LCY have not spelled doom for LHR, DCA's size, runway configuration, and slots will keep it from replacing IAD on the international front.


Then let the market dictate it. Slots are here to stay, why do we need to add extra rules. If you are so confident that slots are the reason that DCA will not replace IAD for high-demand routes, then let it happen.. nothing should change. Instead, we have what amounts to a anti-Wright Amendment argument here.

msp747 wrote:
The problem with your arguments is they are based too much on your personal preferences, and not enough on facts. YOU have no need for IAD, therefore NO ONE has a need for IAD. The facts above show why your original statement was ridiculous. Just accept that there is room for 3 airports in the DC region, that each serves a purpose, and that you don't have to use any one you don't want to.


I don't personally care. I don't live in DC or go there super often, so nice try to cast away my argument as "personal preference". IAD is and has been a massive failure in terms of utilization, a grandiose idea that never worked out. MWAA is only interested in band-aiding the problem and artificially holding back the market from DCA to prop up IAD. All at the expense of consumers.

If IAD is really so important, relax the rules and let's see what happens. Why so scared?

LOL... this is just getting sad. Why so scared? I guess in that alternate universe of yours, I personally am the overlord of MWAA and Congress and the only reason I am not getting rid of the rule is because I'm worried changing it could jeopardize my chances of winning an argument on A.Net :roll:

If you want to change it, knock yourself out. It doesn't bother me. Call your congressman. Donate money to their campaign. Start a change.org petition. Don't let me stop you. It's just I have better things to do with my time then fight to change something that doesn't bother me.


Another deflection.
2019: SIN HKG NRT DFW IAH HOU CLT LGA JFK SFO SJC EWR SNA EYW MIA BOG LAX ORD DTW OAK PVG BOS DCA IAD ATL LAS BIS CUN PHX OAK SYD CVG PHL MAD ORY CDG SLC SJU BQN MHT YYZ STS BIS DOH BLR KTM MFM MEX MSY BWI DEN
 
jplatts
Posts: 2786
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Sat Aug 24, 2019 2:08 am

winstonavgeek wrote:
Right now, the goals for IAD should be to expand their international operation, continue UA's expansion, and find a suitable LCC carrier at Dulles.


While WN only currently serves ATL and DEN nonstop from IAD, there are a few more nonstop routes such as IAD-DAL, IAD-BNA, and IAD-PHX that could be added by WN out of IAD.
 
winstonavgeek
Posts: 36
Joined: Sun Jul 15, 2018 4:00 pm

Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Sat Aug 24, 2019 2:26 pm

jplatts wrote:
winstonavgeek wrote:
Right now, the goals for IAD should be to expand their international operation, continue UA's expansion, and find a suitable LCC carrier at Dulles.


While WN only currently serves ATL and DEN nonstop from IAD, there are a few more nonstop routes such as IAD-DAL, IAD-BNA, and IAD-PHX that could be added by WN out of IAD.


I like the ideas. However, WN failed with LAS and SAN a couple years ago which is why IAD-PHX is not very likely. However, I see IAD-DAL and IAD-MDW as possibilities.
 
jplatts
Posts: 2786
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Sat Aug 24, 2019 3:16 pm

winstonavgeek wrote:
However, WN failed with LAS and SAN a couple years ago which is why IAD-PHX is not very likely.


WN currently has seasonal daily nonstop service to PHX but not LAS or SAN from CVG and PHL. There is also a FF base that is loyal to WN in Greater Phoenix due to WN having nonstop service out of PHX to destinations that AA, DL, or UA don't currently serve nonstop from PHX such as BUF, CLE, LIT, SDF, BNA, and TUL.

PHX is also outside of the DCA perimeter, and WN cannot serve PHX nonstop from DCA without a beyond-perimeter slot exemption.
 
flybaby
Posts: 190
Joined: Fri Apr 14, 2006 5:20 am

Re: IAD Airport finally bounces back

Sat Aug 24, 2019 6:06 pm

washingtonflyer wrote:
WeatherPilot wrote:
Is the new metro link to the city open yet?


No, but the pedestrian tunnel from the metro station to the terminal is. Not too bad of a walk.


I am pretty sure that tunnel has existed from well before the plan to situate the future metro station at its current location, although the tunnel was closed for a few years while construction on the station was underway.

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