WayexTDI
Posts: 1221
Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:38 pm

Re: 787 trouble in the future

Sat Sep 14, 2019 1:18 am

h1fl1er wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
What makes you believe Airbus will sit on their hands and do nothing if Boeing improves their 787?


what can they do? In the Bloomberg article on production cost and market share they effectively threw in the towel in this product segment.

Improving their model means dropping production costs significantly or else it will get even less competitive.

If the 78x eventually turns out to be the W of the 787 line, look out. Everyone around here is dim on it because it didn't have mid 7000nm range with a full pax load like the W but how many routes are there at that distance? 20? It seems to honest to goodness be capable of mid 6000s with 330 pax at a fuel burn rate that can't be matched by the competition.

It's also not a giant cargo hauler but most airlines don't seem to miss that. They haven't been stampeding to buy bigger jets for more than half a decade now. Those who need that capability will trickle in a sale here, a sale there for a 359 or 779, probably not for many 35K or 778s, tho. the 35K will do crazy lift over crazy distance, yeah not as crazy as the 77L, but nobody's in any hurry to buy either of 'em. The 778 even more so and it has less than half the sales of the K.

It'd be nice to quote the whole thing...

Faro was talking about a potential 787-10ER, an improved version of the current 787-10, vs an un-PiP'ed A350 (current version of the A350); so, it's apple to oranges.
Boeing will improve its 787's, no doubt; but so will Airbus with their A350. To thing Airbus will sit on their hands and do nothing while Boeing improves the 787 is being in denial.
 
Exeiowa
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Re: 787 Trouble in the Future?

Sat Sep 14, 2019 3:41 am

It just goes to show the delicate balancing act needed to successfully run a program. There is an advantage to running at higher proction rates, but the way modern production is organized if there is not the demand then problems will occur. I do not think this is a Boeing mistake, just that the ground is changing, narrow bodies are being used on routes traditionally would not have, and large widebodies are not needed for range like they used too, uncertainty is slowing down decision making, the ME3 are post high growth and the legacy airlines are not at the disadvantage they were at before, China has slowed and geopolitical considerations means everyone is recalibrating.

I know that the company I was working for and the one I just joined are being negatively impacted by the side effects of tarifs, when infact they both thought it would be a positive. Well reality says otherwise for their buisness.

We are in a wait and see and the assumptions that Boeing predicated their decision making on no longer hold, its not like the orders are being won by the competition, its that very few orders seem to being placed overall and especially and the large end of the spectrum. I know that my current and former companies are heavily reducing travel and they cannot be the only two companies (Both 2nd tier global Chemical companies)

So until we get some clear economic indicators orders will remain slow for both companies, and then Boeing will have to respond to the current market reality like all companies have to.
 
ewt340
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Re: 787 trouble in the future

Sat Sep 14, 2019 5:18 am

h1fl1er wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
h1fl1er wrote:

Given the order book and sales landslide for the 787, I'm sure their competitors would love to have such a problem.

On the OP, the replacement cycle for larger airframes will occur at some point and Boeing is positioning themselves to capitalize. If the orders don't materialize, everyone is in trouble at that point. But there are a couple thousand 777s out there which will eventually go to scrap and Boeing is betting their house they will capture the lion's share of these especially with the 78x. Between 777s and 330s, it's a lot of planes. Some will get moved to 321XLRs, I'm convinced. But all those 767s, 330s, 777s - right now the battle is in that market space.

Looking long-term, their issue is not a noncompetitive product, but an overcapacity in production. Over in Toulose, they're facing the opposite problem. If orders for 787s dry up, what's going to supplant them? Until Airbus can cut 350 production costs a lot, it won't be that frame. The 330N is a stopgap, but stopgap to what?


It's a stopgap for many market that required cheap transitions to a more modern replacements for their B767 and A330.

Albeit it's not the perfect solutions. It's the only one that make sense for Airbus. I think they did suspect that A330neo would lose in the battle against B787 from the get go, Hence why they developed A350 in the first place.

But one of B787 downfall would be the fact that B787-10 wouldn't be able to offer 1-1 replacement for B777-200ER or B777-300ER. That's when A350 steps in, and Airbus realized it would be redundant to created direct competitions for B787 cause it's gonna ended up in bloodbath that nobody wins while Boeing still dominates the B777-300ER's 350 seat market.

Again, we could ask the same thing with B777X. It's a stopgap but stopgap to what? Boeing know their re-engine B777-300ER wouldn't be as efficient as A350-1000. Hence why they stretched it to make it more efficient. Both A330neo and B777X are created as stopgap, stopgap that they have to creat to make sure their competitions doesn't get to consumed 100% of the market they used to cover. It's redundant, but cheap enough to justify to make a tiny bit of profits at the end of the decade.

B787 future would be fine, they are successful, but it doesn't mean the market not gonna dry up in the future.


777X is imo a stopgap to nowhere. I don't see a future for planes that large. It only makes sense for the big cargo haulers.

Economically, it gets dominated by the smaller jets. The flaw is thinking that we need 1-1 replacements. That didn't happen with 747 and it isn't going to happen with 777. Nor 767 nor 330. The latter two are small enough that more comparable replacements will be sold, but the biggest jets are dinosaurs. Once the 767/330 sized jets had the range of the bigger ones, they are doing the replacing. The 777 showed us this 20+ years ago. Economics of operation are more important than size. Airlines are tending to pick the smallest jet that can do a route. If it's DL, yeah lol they want to haul 26t cargo TPAC, they're gonna be an outlier.

The real issue I see coming up is how do these side cargo business fliers like the US3 and EK coexist with airlines that are lopsidedly choosing smaller frames? The US3 are so stingy with big frame orders that you cannot keep a model alive just for them regardless of their desires. Does the cargo business go away? The cargo business in the first place was a way to maximize payload range economics of frames which were in a sense too large for the passenger routes. So they filled the excess with freight. Swap in a 78X and you don't that slack anymore so what next?


B777X is a stopgap for current B777-300ER replacement. The 350-seat market is currently the largest one that majority of airlines wants. Bigger than that it becomes niche.

Now Boeing have 2 options here. Either expand B787 offering with B787-10ER and B781-11 with larger wings and more powerful engines.
OR
New Clean sheet design to replace B777-200ER and B777-300ER to compete directly with A350-900 and A350-1000. Which mean that B787-10ER would be the cheaper stopgap for the new clean sheet design that would be occupy the market before 2030.

Now if they choose to expand B787 offering then the production line would lived long life into 2030 when they would probably offer the NEO version.

But if not, then there's a big chance for reduction to accommodate new B777 replacements and NMA.
 
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Faro
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Re: 787 trouble in the future

Sat Sep 14, 2019 6:47 am

WayexTDI wrote:
Faro wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
To expand on my prior post, Boeing must sell. The 787-10 will sell more.



And then there’s the 787-10ER...if (when?) launched within 3-5 years that will sell boatloads of planes...besides killing off the 778X...and putting a serious dent in un-PiPed A350 sales...

I wonder whether GE can develop a smaller-diameter fan for a GE9X-lite at a reasonable cost...

Faro

What makes you believe Airbus will sit on their hands and do nothing if Boeing improves their 787?



Hence my quote "...and putting a serious dent in un-PiPed A350 sales..."...

I believe a PiP for the Trent XWB is expected in the medium term...with perhaps a re-engined A350NEO with the Ultrafan after 2025...


Faro
The chalice not my son
 
strfyr51
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Re: 787 Trouble in the Future?

Sat Sep 14, 2019 6:53 am

MCTSET wrote:
Reading the overview of this leeham article I realised that despite the huge 787 pick up in recent years and deliveries really gaining traction they only have a full book until 2021, that has surprised me.

Do you think Boeing has increased the 787 rate too much in order the bring unit costs down but in they may actually outpaced the market and got themselves in a slight problem.

https://leehamnews.com/2019/07/29/boein ... hallenges/

I can tell this thread will cause trouble so everyone take it easy it’s not a battle to the death to defend your favourite manufacturer.

Boeing has full Knowledge of cyclic downturns in the word's economies. They're making HAY while the Sun Shines". Can't blame them for that...
 
Checklist787
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Re: 787 trouble in the future

Sat Sep 14, 2019 7:57 am

Faro wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
Faro wrote:


And then there’s the 787-10ER...if (when?) launched within 3-5 years that will sell boatloads of planes...besides killing off the 778X...and putting a serious dent in un-PiPed A350 sales...

I wonder whether GE can develop a smaller-diameter fan for a GE9X-lite at a reasonable cost...

Faro

What makes you believe Airbus will sit on their hands and do nothing if Boeing improves their 787?



Hence my quote "...and putting a serious dent in un-PiPed A350 sales..."...

I believe a PiP for the Trent XWB is expected in the medium term...with perhaps a re-engined A350NEO with the Ultrafan after 2025...


Faro


It may be necessary FIRST of all for RR to know how to build safe and tested engines before considering the "fantasy"/UltraFan

Is not it ?
 
RJMAZ
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Re: 787 Trouble in the Future?

Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:27 am

That Leeham article is very bias. There is no trouble with the 787 at a rate of 14 per month or 168 per year.

Boeing does NOT need to sell 168 per year to maintain rate. It does NOT need to maintain a backlog of 500+ aircraft. If Boeing sold 120 aircraft per year for the next 10 years it will still be at rate 14 for the next 7-8 years.

If they build 168 and sell 120 each year then the backlog simply reduces by 48 per year. That is still more than 12 years of production. By then the first 787-8's built will be due for replacement and we will have the 787NEO.

If there is a global downturn I expect the 777X to take the biggest hit. We already have rumours that the 777-8 is on ice. That is also meant to form the basis of the future Boeing freighter. Boeing will not have the economy of scale with the 777X program so they might have to sell 777X's at a lower profit margin to keep the line going. It might be better to just push airlines towards the 787NEO and launch the 787-11. I do not expect any further airline orders of the 777X after the 787NEO launch. I doubt the 777X will continue on as freighter only like the 747-8F.

I expect Boeing will be seriously looking at a 787-8 freighter as a better long term solution than the 777-8 777-8 freighter. The 787-8 freighter could carry 50% more payload than the 767 with the same fuel burn. If you had three 767's on a ramp at a freight facility they could fit two 787's for the same lift.
 
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scbriml
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Re: 787 Trouble in the Future?

Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:42 am

RJMAZ wrote:
There is no trouble with the 787 at a rate of 14 per month or 168 per year.

Boeing does NOT need to sell 168 per year to maintain rate. It does NOT need to maintain a backlog of 500+ aircraft. If Boeing sold 120 aircraft per year for the next 10 years it will still be at rate 14 for the next 7-8 years.

If they build 168 and sell 120 each year then the backlog simply reduces by 48 per year. That is still more than 12 years of production. By then the first 787-8's built will be due for replacement and we will have the 787NEO.


You seem to have missed the point entirely.

The issue isn't the size of the backlog, but when airlines want those planes delivered. Boeing currently has hundreds of unallocated production slots starting as early as 2022. That's the challenge to maintaining rate 14, not the total backlog.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: 787 trouble in the future

Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:43 am

ewt340 wrote:
B777X is a stopgap for current B777-300ER replacement. The 350-seat market is currently the largest one that majority of airlines wants. Bigger than that it becomes niche.

Now Boeing have 2 options here. Either expand B787 offering with B787-10ER and B781-11 with larger wings and more powerful engines.
OR
New Clean sheet design

I think new engines with the current wings will allow the 787 to replace the 777-300ER and even replace 777X in the long run.

Airbus seems to offer small aero tweaks and MTOW bumps on a regular basis and they get a fair bit of media attention. Boeing does have a modular pylon on the 787 and we did see a mini NEO program on the 787 already with the Trent 1000TEN which had 90% of the internals changed. I expect GE to offer an engine with CMC's and GE9X tech in 2025. The 787-9 will have 8000+nm range and the 787-10 will be above 7000nm.
 
WIederling
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Re: 787 trouble in the future

Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:31 am

RJMAZ wrote:
Boeing does have a modular pylon on the 787 and we did see a mini NEO program on the 787 already with the Trent 1000TEN which had 90% of the internals changed.


Engine swap out went from "couple of hours, independent of a manufacturer change or not" to
change everything as far back as the wing and probably some change inside the plane too.

nothing flexible or modular about it afaics.

"TRENT 1000 TEN" is a "TRENT 1000" at the interface level.
you can probably even fly a mixed set.
Murphy is an optimist
 
ewt340
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Re: 787 trouble in the future

Sat Sep 14, 2019 10:12 am

RJMAZ wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
B777X is a stopgap for current B777-300ER replacement. The 350-seat market is currently the largest one that majority of airlines wants. Bigger than that it becomes niche.

Now Boeing have 2 options here. Either expand B787 offering with B787-10ER and B781-11 with larger wings and more powerful engines.
OR
New Clean sheet design

I think new engines with the current wings will allow the 787 to replace the 777-300ER and even replace 777X in the long run.

Airbus seems to offer small aero tweaks and MTOW bumps on a regular basis and they get a fair bit of media attention. Boeing does have a modular pylon on the 787 and we did see a mini NEO program on the 787 already with the Trent 1000TEN which had 90% of the internals changed. I expect GE to offer an engine with CMC's and GE9X tech in 2025. The 787-9 will have 8000+nm range and the 787-10 will be above 7000nm.


B787-10ER wouldn't need bigger wings per say. but B787-11 definitely needed it if they want decent range.

B787-10ER would have similar capacity to A350-900 and B777-200ER with less range. It can't even replace 9-abreast B777-300ER capacity, let alone the 10-abreast B777-300ER which is currently in the majority.
 
SteelChair
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Re: 787 Trouble in the Future?

Sat Sep 14, 2019 10:22 am

scbriml wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
There is no trouble with the 787 at a rate of 14 per month or 168 per year.

Boeing does NOT need to sell 168 per year to maintain rate. It does NOT need to maintain a backlog of 500+ aircraft. If Boeing sold 120 aircraft per year for the next 10 years it will still be at rate 14 for the next 7-8 years.

If they build 168 and sell 120 each year then the backlog simply reduces by 48 per year. That is still more than 12 years of production. By then the first 787-8's built will be due for replacement and we will have the 787NEO.


You seem to have missed the point entirely.

The issue isn't the size of the backlog, but when airlines want those planes delivered. Boeing currently has hundreds of unallocated production slots starting as early as 2022. That's the challenge to maintaining rate 14, not the total backlog.


This, x 1,000.
 
SteelChair
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Re: 787 Trouble in the Future?

Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:00 am

Backlog by year:
2013-844
2014-779
2015-700
2016-658
2017-622
2018-582

"True" backlog from "real" customers that want planes now is probably less than 300. Building 145/yr (as they did in 2018) is not sustainable. Boeing will have to reduce the rate soon imho, unless they get significantly more orders.
 
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Faro
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Re: 787 trouble in the future

Sat Sep 14, 2019 1:58 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
Faro wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
What makes you believe Airbus will sit on their hands and do nothing if Boeing improves their 787?



Hence my quote "...and putting a serious dent in un-PiPed A350 sales..."...

I believe a PiP for the Trent XWB is expected in the medium term...with perhaps a re-engined A350NEO with the Ultrafan after 2025...


Faro


It may be necessary FIRST of all for RR to know how to build safe and tested engines before considering the "fantasy"/UltraFan

Is not it ?


I believe they...ahem...now fully grasped the scale of their internal organisation issues...IIRC they announced a "fundamental restructuring" in mid-June placing engineering on a higher footing in their organisation procedures...


Faro
The chalice not my son
 
Checklist787
Posts: 195
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Re: 787 trouble in the future

Sat Sep 14, 2019 4:15 pm

Faro wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
Faro wrote:


Hence my quote "...and putting a serious dent in un-PiPed A350 sales..."...

I believe a PiP for the Trent XWB is expected in the medium term...with perhaps a re-engined A350NEO with the Ultrafan after 2025...


Faro


It may be necessary FIRST of all for RR to know how to build safe and tested engines before considering the "fantasy"/UltraFan

Is not it ?


I believe they...ahem...now fully grasped the scale of their internal organisation issues...IIRC they announced a "fundamental restructuring" in mid-June placing engineering on a higher footing in their organisation procedures...


Faro


Boeing, Airbus, shareholders, investors, the stock market, and we average viewers want to see results.
 
travelhound
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Re: 787 Trouble in the Future?

Sat Sep 14, 2019 10:21 pm

scbriml wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
There is no trouble with the 787 at a rate of 14 per month or 168 per year.

Boeing does NOT need to sell 168 per year to maintain rate. It does NOT need to maintain a backlog of 500+ aircraft. If Boeing sold 120 aircraft per year for the next 10 years it will still be at rate 14 for the next 7-8 years.

If they build 168 and sell 120 each year then the backlog simply reduces by 48 per year. That is still more than 12 years of production. By then the first 787-8's built will be due for replacement and we will have the 787NEO.


You seem to have missed the point entirely.

The issue isn't the size of the backlog, but when airlines want those planes delivered. Boeing currently has hundreds of unallocated production slots starting as early as 2022. That's the challenge to maintaining rate 14, not the total backlog.


I think we have to remember purchase rights often come with guaranteed production slots. I know in QF's case their next purchase of 787's will come with production slots in the 2022 period.

As such, availability of production slots could be a more a game of cat and mouse rather than a fundamental miscalculation of supply and demand.

My Orders,production and deliveries spreadsheet shows a near term need for approximately 470 aircraft in the 787/A330 size bracket with approximately 300 of those aircraft for existing Boeing 787 customers.

The questions revolve around the Chinese carriers and the world economy. Some (airlines) may choose to delay a buying decision until such times world / economic affairs improve, whilst others (QF) will have an almost immediate need to replace aircraft that are reaching the end of their economic life.

I think it is safe to assume Boeing can expect orders in the region of 70 aircraft per year up until an upturn in the market. The replacement cycle for the A330 alone is probably worth 35-70 units per year. If we throw 777-200's (a truck load of aircraft needing replacement in the near term) and the lower end of 777-300ER's (where airlines want to right size) into the mix, the economics for buying a 787 could be very favourable.

There are head winds, but probably not the doom and gloom that is being suggested here. Airlines will have to make buying decisions in the near term!
 
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lightsaber
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Re: 787 Trouble in the Future?

Sat Sep 14, 2019 10:46 pm

travelhound wrote:
scbriml wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
There is no trouble with the 787 at a rate of 14 per month or 168 per year.

Boeing does NOT need to sell 168 per year to maintain rate. It does NOT need to maintain a backlog of 500+ aircraft. If Boeing sold 120 aircraft per year for the next 10 years it will still be at rate 14 for the next 7-8 years.

If they build 168 and sell 120 each year then the backlog simply reduces by 48 per year. That is still more than 12 years of production. By then the first 787-8's built will be due for replacement and we will have the 787NEO.


You seem to have missed the point entirely.

The issue isn't the size of the backlog, but when airlines want those planes delivered. Boeing currently has hundreds of unallocated production slots starting as early as 2022. That's the challenge to maintaining rate 14, not the total backlog.


I think we have to remember purchase rights often come with guaranteed production slots. I know in QF's case their next purchase of 787's will come with production slots in the 2022 period.

As such, availability of production slots could be a more a game of cat and mouse rather than a fundamental miscalculation of supply and demand.

My Orders,production and deliveries spreadsheet shows a near term need for approximately 470 aircraft in the 787/A330 size bracket with approximately 300 of those aircraft for existing Boeing 787 customers.

The questions revolve around the Chinese carriers and the world economy. Some (airlines) may choose to delay a buying decision until such times world / economic affairs improve, whilst others (QF) will have an almost immediate need to replace aircraft that are reaching the end of their economic life.

I think it is safe to assume Boeing can expect orders in the region of 70 aircraft per year up until an upturn in the market. The replacement cycle for the A330 alone is probably worth 35-70 units per year. If we throw 777-200's (a truck load of aircraft needing replacement in the near term) and the lower end of 777-300ER's (where airlines want to right size) into the mix, the economics for buying a 787 could be very favourable.

There are head winds, but probably not the doom and gloom that is being suggested here. Airlines will have to make buying decisions in the near term!

What I notice Is everyone is focused on the minimum year 2022, which Boeing sold too many purchase rights and options. I recall reading on Leeham that many only require 18 months notice. Whatever the correct number is, airlines would be stupid to firm orders much earlier than required as that creates an obligation they should avoid until the last minute.

This is the hangover of old sales.

What I know is Boeing can commit to vendors. What is hair raising is engine specific parts, those have a long lead time.

I don't guarantee production could stay at 168/year, but as we already had a link showing 2023 and 2024 do not have 70 spare slots, I would bet on 2022 filling up.

I would not make this bet after NMA EIS, just to be clear.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: 787 Trouble in the Future?

Sun Sep 15, 2019 12:24 am

lightsaber wrote:
travelhound wrote:
scbriml wrote:

You seem to have missed the point entirely.

The issue isn't the size of the backlog, but when airlines want those planes delivered. Boeing currently has hundreds of unallocated production slots starting as early as 2022. That's the challenge to maintaining rate 14, not the total backlog.


I think we have to remember purchase rights often come with guaranteed production slots. I know in QF's case their next purchase of 787's will come with production slots in the 2022 period.

As such, availability of production slots could be a more a game of cat and mouse rather than a fundamental miscalculation of supply and demand.

My Orders,production and deliveries spreadsheet shows a near term need for approximately 470 aircraft in the 787/A330 size bracket with approximately 300 of those aircraft for existing Boeing 787 customers.

The questions revolve around the Chinese carriers and the world economy. Some (airlines) may choose to delay a buying decision until such times world / economic affairs improve, whilst others (QF) will have an almost immediate need to replace aircraft that are reaching the end of their economic life.

I think it is safe to assume Boeing can expect orders in the region of 70 aircraft per year up until an upturn in the market. The replacement cycle for the A330 alone is probably worth 35-70 units per year. If we throw 777-200's (a truck load of aircraft needing replacement in the near term) and the lower end of 777-300ER's (where airlines want to right size) into the mix, the economics for buying a 787 could be very favourable.

There are head winds, but probably not the doom and gloom that is being suggested here. Airlines will have to make buying decisions in the near term!

What I notice Is everyone is focused on the minimum year 2022, which Boeing sold too many purchase rights and options. I recall reading on Leeham that many only require 18 months notice. Whatever the correct number is, airlines would be stupid to firm orders much earlier than required as that creates an obligation they should avoid until the last minute.

This is the hangover of old sales.

What I know is Boeing can commit to vendors. What is hair raising is engine specific parts, those have a long lead time.

I don't guarantee production could stay at 168/year, but as we already had a link showing 2023 and 2024 do not have 70 spare slots, I would bet on 2022 filling up.

I would not make this bet after NMA EIS, just to be clear.

Lightsaber


The point is that the backlog of the 787 is not any longer vast. It is a very nice backlog in regards to a wide body airliner, but it will not stand under a 168 frames a year or 14 frames a month production. This production numbers are the absolut record for any wide body frame. The 777 topped out at 8.3 a month or 100 a year. The A330 managed to get to slightly over 100 a year for a short time.

The current backlog stands at 582 frames. Divided by 168, that gives less than 3 and a half years. But not all orders are to be produced in the next 3 1/2 years, some have a longer time frame.

The current unfilled slots are 93 for 2022, 136 for 2023 and 154 or more for years later than that. That is according to:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... dreamliner

I do not get the optimism in regards to orders filling up the slots. Especially not with the USA China trade wars raging. The shortened backlog, down to less than 3.5 years with slots open in less than 3 years, has not brought the expected increased sales numbers.

Of course Boeing will not need to stop producing 787, but I see a need to reduce the production rate to 10 or even 8 frames a month in the not to far future.
I assume, that that will lead to closing down the line in Everett.
 
2175301
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Re: 787 Trouble in the Future?

Sun Sep 15, 2019 1:57 am

mjoelnir wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
travelhound wrote:

I think we have to remember purchase rights often come with guaranteed production slots. I know in QF's case their next purchase of 787's will come with production slots in the 2022 period.

As such, availability of production slots could be a more a game of cat and mouse rather than a fundamental miscalculation of supply and demand.

My Orders,production and deliveries spreadsheet shows a near term need for approximately 470 aircraft in the 787/A330 size bracket with approximately 300 of those aircraft for existing Boeing 787 customers.

The questions revolve around the Chinese carriers and the world economy. Some (airlines) may choose to delay a buying decision until such times world / economic affairs improve, whilst others (QF) will have an almost immediate need to replace aircraft that are reaching the end of their economic life.

I think it is safe to assume Boeing can expect orders in the region of 70 aircraft per year up until an upturn in the market. The replacement cycle for the A330 alone is probably worth 35-70 units per year. If we throw 777-200's (a truck load of aircraft needing replacement in the near term) and the lower end of 777-300ER's (where airlines want to right size) into the mix, the economics for buying a 787 could be very favourable.

There are head winds, but probably not the doom and gloom that is being suggested here. Airlines will have to make buying decisions in the near term!

What I notice Is everyone is focused on the minimum year 2022, which Boeing sold too many purchase rights and options. I recall reading on Leeham that many only require 18 months notice. Whatever the correct number is, airlines would be stupid to firm orders much earlier than required as that creates an obligation they should avoid until the last minute.

This is the hangover of old sales.

What I know is Boeing can commit to vendors. What is hair raising is engine specific parts, those have a long lead time.

I don't guarantee production could stay at 168/year, but as we already had a link showing 2023 and 2024 do not have 70 spare slots, I would bet on 2022 filling up.

I would not make this bet after NMA EIS, just to be clear.

Lightsaber


The point is that the backlog of the 787 is not any longer vast. It is a very nice backlog in regards to a wide body airliner, but it will not stand under a 168 frames a year or 14 frames a month production. This production numbers are the absolut record for any wide body frame. The 777 topped out at 8.3 a month or 100 a year. The A330 managed to get to slightly over 100 a year for a short time.

The current backlog stands at 582 frames. Divided by 168, that gives less than 3 and a half years. But not all orders are to be produced in the next 3 1/2 years, some have a longer time frame.

The current unfilled slots are 93 for 2022, 136 for 2023 and 154 or more for years later than that. That is according to:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... dreamliner

I do not get the optimism in regards to orders filling up the slots. Especially not with the USA China trade wars raging. The shortened backlog, down to less than 3.5 years with slots open in less than 3 years, has not brought the expected increased sales numbers.

Of course Boeing will not need to stop producing 787, but I see a need to reduce the production rate to 10 or even 8 frames a month in the not to far future.
I assume, that that will lead to closing down the line in Everett.



I agree that the 787 line will slow down; and that 14 per month is not long term sustainable 4-6 years from now. Most likely they will fill up the 2022 slots with new sales and by pulling up some deliveries (there always seems to be someone who would like to do that - at least the 1st time its offered). With the right market they get another year or so beyond that, and then its almost certainly reduce production rates. However, this is not something Boeing needs to worry about, and its a natural part of any aircraft production life cycle.

While slowing production will increase cost per frame somewhat, a counterbalance will be that almost all (if not all) deferred production cost should be written off by that point. I understand that is a book-keeping transfer within Boeing itself from one account to another; but, it is a current charge against the current cost of production. When the differed production cost write-downs are over Boeing will have that as an effective cost of production reduction (last quarter I believe this was in the $30 million per frame range), and can afford a modest cost increase due to decreased production rates - while still holding the prices steady (if not even potentially decreasing them).

Overall, I believe that the 787 will remain in production for at least another 20 years, and possibly twice that with an upgraded version.

Have a great day,
 
travelhound
Posts: 1864
Joined: Fri May 23, 2008 9:13 pm

Re: 787 Trouble in the Future?

Sun Sep 15, 2019 4:03 am

mjoelnir wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
travelhound wrote:

I think we have to remember purchase rights often come with guaranteed production slots. I know in QF's case their next purchase of 787's will come with production slots in the 2022 period.

As such, availability of production slots could be a more a game of cat and mouse rather than a fundamental miscalculation of supply and demand.

My Orders,production and deliveries spreadsheet shows a near term need for approximately 470 aircraft in the 787/A330 size bracket with approximately 300 of those aircraft for existing Boeing 787 customers.

The questions revolve around the Chinese carriers and the world economy. Some (airlines) may choose to delay a buying decision until such times world / economic affairs improve, whilst others (QF) will have an almost immediate need to replace aircraft that are reaching the end of their economic life.

I think it is safe to assume Boeing can expect orders in the region of 70 aircraft per year up until an upturn in the market. The replacement cycle for the A330 alone is probably worth 35-70 units per year. If we throw 777-200's (a truck load of aircraft needing replacement in the near term) and the lower end of 777-300ER's (where airlines want to right size) into the mix, the economics for buying a 787 could be very favourable.

There are head winds, but probably not the doom and gloom that is being suggested here. Airlines will have to make buying decisions in the near term!

What I notice Is everyone is focused on the minimum year 2022, which Boeing sold too many purchase rights and options. I recall reading on Leeham that many only require 18 months notice. Whatever the correct number is, airlines would be stupid to firm orders much earlier than required as that creates an obligation they should avoid until the last minute.

This is the hangover of old sales.

What I know is Boeing can commit to vendors. What is hair raising is engine specific parts, those have a long lead time.

I don't guarantee production could stay at 168/year, but as we already had a link showing 2023 and 2024 do not have 70 spare slots, I would bet on 2022 filling up.

I would not make this bet after NMA EIS, just to be clear.

Lightsaber


The point is that the backlog of the 787 is not any longer vast. It is a very nice backlog in regards to a wide body airliner, but it will not stand under a 168 frames a year or 14 frames a month production. This production numbers are the absolut record for any wide body frame. The 777 topped out at 8.3 a month or 100 a year. The A330 managed to get to slightly over 100 a year for a short time.

The current backlog stands at 582 frames. Divided by 168, that gives less than 3 and a half years. But not all orders are to be produced in the next 3 1/2 years, some have a longer time frame.

The current unfilled slots are 93 for 2022, 136 for 2023 and 154 or more for years later than that. That is according to:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... dreamliner

I do not get the optimism in regards to orders filling up the slots. Especially not with the USA China trade wars raging. The shortened backlog, down to less than 3.5 years with slots open in less than 3 years, has not brought the expected increased sales numbers.

Of course Boeing will not need to stop producing 787, but I see a need to reduce the production rate to 10 or even 8 frames a month in the not to far future.
I assume, that that will lead to closing down the line in Everett.


Boeing has sold more than 2000 777's. They did this in a market approximately half the size of what the market is now.

I think our analysis of the 787's prospects has to considered in a growing market. If the market isn't growing, than we would have to consider demand for new aircraft on an industry level, not just an aircraft level.
 
Checklist787
Posts: 195
Joined: Sat Jun 01, 2019 2:37 am

Re: 787 Trouble in the Future?

Sun Sep 15, 2019 4:27 am

travelhound wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
What I notice Is everyone is focused on the minimum year 2022, which Boeing sold too many purchase rights and options. I recall reading on Leeham that many only require 18 months notice. Whatever the correct number is, airlines would be stupid to firm orders much earlier than required as that creates an obligation they should avoid until the last minute.

This is the hangover of old sales.

What I know is Boeing can commit to vendors. What is hair raising is engine specific parts, those have a long lead time.

I don't guarantee production could stay at 168/year, but as we already had a link showing 2023 and 2024 do not have 70 spare slots, I would bet on 2022 filling up.

I would not make this bet after NMA EIS, just to be clear.

Lightsaber


The point is that the backlog of the 787 is not any longer vast. It is a very nice backlog in regards to a wide body airliner, but it will not stand under a 168 frames a year or 14 frames a month production. This production numbers are the absolut record for any wide body frame. The 777 topped out at 8.3 a month or 100 a year. The A330 managed to get to slightly over 100 a year for a short time.

The current backlog stands at 582 frames. Divided by 168, that gives less than 3 and a half years. But not all orders are to be produced in the next 3 1/2 years, some have a longer time frame.

The current unfilled slots are 93 for 2022, 136 for 2023 and 154 or more for years later than that. That is according to:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... dreamliner

I do not get the optimism in regards to orders filling up the slots. Especially not with the USA China trade wars raging. The shortened backlog, down to less than 3.5 years with slots open in less than 3 years, has not brought the expected increased sales numbers.

Of course Boeing will not need to stop producing 787, but I see a need to reduce the production rate to 10 or even 8 frames a month in the not to far future.
I assume, that that will lead to closing down the line in Everett.


Boeing has sold more than 2000 777's. They did this in a market approximately half the size of what the market is now.

I think our analysis of the 787's prospects has to considered in a growing market. If the market isn't growing, than we would have to consider demand for new aircraft on an industry level, not just an aircraft level.


And then the 787-10 is targeting a market B different from 787-8's market and 9's.The 787-10 should do better than what the 777-300ER did.

Some airlines like EVA have replaced it with the Dreamliner and others like Qatar Airways have replaced it with the 777-9X.

Many will also have to replace the old A330 whose A330neo do not do better in terms of sales
 
foxtrotbravo21
Posts: 26
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2016 2:52 am

Re: 787 Trouble in the Future?

Sun Sep 15, 2019 11:32 am

The real danger for Boeing is the US and Cgina trade deal and if President Trump do not agree to a deal soon then Boeing will lose many orders including cancellation of existing yet to deliver aircrafts. China accounts for half or more of all Boeing aircraft orders. That is alot and Airbus will gain if the trade deal is not happening.
 
Eyad89
Posts: 635
Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:47 pm

Re: 787 Trouble in the Future?

Sun Sep 15, 2019 1:51 pm

It’s not the 787 that is in trouble, it is the 14 per month rate that is unsustainable, and that is not 787’s fault.

This rate has served its purpose during the period, and it is now time to make a change.
 
musman9853
Posts: 825
Joined: Mon May 14, 2018 12:30 pm

Re: 787 Trouble in the Future?

Sun Sep 15, 2019 3:13 pm

foxtrotbravo21 wrote:
The real danger for Boeing is the US and Cgina trade deal and if President Trump do not agree to a deal soon then Boeing will lose many orders including cancellation of existing yet to deliver aircrafts. China accounts for half or more of all Boeing aircraft orders. That is alot and Airbus will gain if the trade deal is not happening.


I doubt they would cancel anything. If they did that would likely be very damaging to negotiations and that would not be good for the Chinese. They want this trade was to end
Welcome to the City Beautiful.
 
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PacoMartin
Posts: 385
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:18 pm

Re: 787 Trouble in the Future?

Sun Sep 15, 2019 4:21 pm

I don't know how many B777X they are planning to manufacture in a year. The peak production of the B777-300ER was 88 in 2016. But it does not seem like they have more than 4-5 years of production on the 325 orders for the B777.

Boeing 777-8/9 351,534 kg
Airbus A350-1000 316,000
Airbus A350-900 280,000
Boeing 787-9/10 254,000
Airbus A330-200/300 242,000
Boeing 787-8 228,000
 
WayexTDI
Posts: 1221
Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:38 pm

Re: 787 trouble in the future

Sun Sep 15, 2019 4:26 pm

Faro wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
Faro wrote:


And then there’s the 787-10ER...if (when?) launched within 3-5 years that will sell boatloads of planes...besides killing off the 778X...and putting a serious dent in un-PiPed A350 sales...

I wonder whether GE can develop a smaller-diameter fan for a GE9X-lite at a reasonable cost...

Faro

What makes you believe Airbus will sit on their hands and do nothing if Boeing improves their 787?



Hence my quote "...and putting a serious dent in un-PiPed A350 sales..."...

I believe a PiP for the Trent XWB is expected in the medium term...with perhaps a re-engined A350NEO with the Ultrafan after 2025...


Faro

I still don't get how you compare an improved 787 with a non-improved A350? That's comparing apples to oranges.

Again, Airbus will not wait for Boeing to improve the A350; and they sure as heck won't stand on their hands if/when Boeing improves the 787.
 
jeffrey0032j
Posts: 626
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:11 pm

Re: 787 trouble in the future

Sun Sep 15, 2019 4:43 pm

Faro wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
Faro wrote:


And then there’s the 787-10ER...if (when?) launched within 3-5 years that will sell boatloads of planes...besides killing off the 778X...and putting a serious dent in un-PiPed A350 sales...

I wonder whether GE can develop a smaller-diameter fan for a GE9X-lite at a reasonable cost...

Faro

What makes you believe Airbus will sit on their hands and do nothing if Boeing improves their 787?



Hence my quote "...and putting a serious dent in un-PiPed A350 sales..."...

I believe a PiP for the Trent XWB is expected in the medium term...with perhaps a re-engined A350NEO with the Ultrafan after 2025...


Faro


Disregarding the potential for delays (as we have seen with new engine programs), the Ultrafan will not be exclusive to the A350. RR has said that Boeing engineers assisting them on their Trent 1000 screwups have had opportunties to "wander around in Derby and to get a much better idea of how the UltraFan programme is developing" and they are "quite optimistic with both airframers for the future and UltraFan". I would bet that RR will provide an Ultrafan for the 787. Which is a good thing for Boeing by letting Airbus take the delay and/or "persistent first-comer issues" risk this time round.
 
cledaybuck
Posts: 1535
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:07 pm

Re: 787 Trouble in the Future?

Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:15 pm

Eyad89 wrote:
It’s not the 787 that is in trouble, it is the 14 per month rate that is unsustainable, and that is not 787’s fault.

This rate has served its purpose during the period, and it is now time to make a change.

Not yet. They still have about a year.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
justloveplanes
Posts: 1002
Joined: Thu Jul 08, 2004 5:38 am

Re: 787 trouble in the future

Sun Sep 15, 2019 10:32 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
Faro wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
What makes you believe Airbus will sit on their hands and do nothing if Boeing improves their 787?



Hence my quote "...and putting a serious dent in un-PiPed A350 sales..."...

I believe a PiP for the Trent XWB is expected in the medium term...with perhaps a re-engined A350NEO with the Ultrafan after 2025...


Faro

I still don't get how you compare an improved 787 with a non-improved A350? That's comparing apples to oranges.

Again, Airbus will not wait for Boeing to improve the A350; and they sure as heck won't stand on their hands if/when Boeing improves the 787.


There appears to be a fundamental value advantage for the 787 vs the 350. A350 seems a slightly more capable A/C (and Airbus engineers did a terrific job with the hand they were dealt), but the 787 architecture, manufacturing and design for lowering the cost of ownership on an evolving basis seems to be ruling the day....There seems to be no other explanation for why the 787 is selling substantially more vs a more capable A/C.

So PiPs will move the sales back and forth some, but I doubt overall we will see much change in the sales balance we have now. I fact, I would guess as engines progress, the value proposition of the 78X will increase and tilt the balance even more. Looking at the overall segment then, this 14 per month should stick around a bit if they can get past 2022/23.
 
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lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 18114
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Re: 787 Trouble in the Future?

Sun Sep 15, 2019 11:06 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
Eyad89 wrote:
It’s not the 787 that is in trouble, it is the 14 per month rate that is unsustainable, and that is not 787’s fault.

This rate has served its purpose during the period, and it is now time to make a change.

Not yet. They still have about a year.

Let us clarify that timeline.

Options and purchase rights have a lead time. Some 36 months (obviously these have past), some 30 months, some 24, and rumor is Boeing assigned quite a number at 18 months on the 787.

That short lead time is great for airlines, bad for Boeing and risk sharing partners. With 788/789 standardization underway and already high commonality between 789 and 78x, Boeing will have to lean forward at risk. Sales have picked up the last few years, it is a question of excercised options/purchase rights.

For 2022, I do not think Boeing can blink until YE 2020. Bummer. Hair raising. Click bait for aviation news too. We shall see. Specifically, until the end of the Dubai airshow 2020, this year ends November 21st.

https://www.visitdubai.com/en/events/dubai-airshow-2019

2020 schedule, I didn't find the dates, but before then, Farnborough:
https://www.farnboroughairshow.com/

.we have a lot of angst ahead. The decision can be delayed as in the next 12 months we should expect orders to fill 2022. With existing orders, not much of a drop in production, if one is needed.

Let us see. The 787 backlog is barely less than the A350 backlog.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
ewt340
Posts: 817
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: 787 trouble in the future

Mon Sep 16, 2019 1:01 am

justloveplanes wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
Faro wrote:


Hence my quote "...and putting a serious dent in un-PiPed A350 sales..."...

I believe a PiP for the Trent XWB is expected in the medium term...with perhaps a re-engined A350NEO with the Ultrafan after 2025...


Faro

I still don't get how you compare an improved 787 with a non-improved A350? That's comparing apples to oranges.

Again, Airbus will not wait for Boeing to improve the A350; and they sure as heck won't stand on their hands if/when Boeing improves the 787.


There appears to be a fundamental value advantage for the 787 vs the 350. A350 seems a slightly more capable A/C (and Airbus engineers did a terrific job with the hand they were dealt), but the 787 architecture, manufacturing and design for lowering the cost of ownership on an evolving basis seems to be ruling the day....There seems to be no other explanation for why the 787 is selling substantially more vs a more capable A/C.

So PiPs will move the sales back and forth some, but I doubt overall we will see much change in the sales balance we have now. I fact, I would guess as engines progress, the value proposition of the 78X will increase and tilt the balance even more. Looking at the overall segment then, this 14 per month should stick around a bit if they can get past 2022/23.


B787-8 and B787-9 are significantly smaller in capacity and range than A350-900. That's why it's cheaper to buy or operate. With majority of routes are either short haul or medium haul flights. Majority of flights required smaller capacity or smaller range. Hence the success of B787.
 
h1fl1er
Posts: 121
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 5:58 pm

Re: 787 trouble in the future

Mon Sep 16, 2019 5:14 pm

ewt340 wrote:
B777X is a stopgap for current B777-300ER replacement. The 350-seat market is currently the largest one that majority of airlines wants. Bigger than that it becomes niche.


the 78X handles this market at economics unapproachable by the competing frames.

Now Boeing have 2 options here. Either expand B787 offering with B787-10ER and B781-11 with larger wings and more powerful engines.
OR
New Clean sheet design to replace B777-200ER and B777-300ER to compete directly with A350-900 and A350-1000.


you lost me there...um...have you looked at the sales numbers for the past 6 years? Boeing isn't who needs to change course here. Why would Boeing modify their plane into something that competes with an airframe that is being outsold by an inhouse product from last generation but with new engines (330N)?

Replacement cycles haven't diminished in the past 6 years- there is no rosy future just waiting right around the corner to reverse the current trends. Wasn't for 380, won't be for 77X or 350 either. At least everyone has accepted this for the 748, right?

Look, 330Neo outselling 359 over the former's lifespan is shouting something to anyone who is willing to listen.

What *current* sales data is showing us is that the market for which 777X, 350, 380, 748i were competing for is a *lot* smaller than anyone thought. The 777 is the new 747, a plane chosen because it had the range. Now that a much smaller bird has that range, everyone's looking to downsize yet again because of operating cost. Had a 767 sized plane been able to fly as far as the 777, the latter wouldn't have sold. Just like widebodies don't sell in competition for routes anymore where the NB has the payload range to do the route.

A bump in capability for the 78X, to enable true mid 7000s nm range would pretty much make any interest in the bigger jets nearly nonexistent...well, I guess if we look at the order books for 380, 777X, 35K, we don't see a lot...like what, 400 frames realistically? So the interest has already almost vanished.

The aircraft market is like that now- 777 sold 2000 frames. So a slam-dunk should be "just make a better 777." But it hasn't worked like that.
 
ewt340
Posts: 817
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: 787 trouble in the future

Mon Sep 16, 2019 7:39 pm

h1fl1er wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
B777X is a stopgap for current B777-300ER replacement. The 350-seat market is currently the largest one that majority of airlines wants. Bigger than that it becomes niche.


the 78X handles this market at economics unapproachable by the competing frames.

Now Boeing have 2 options here. Either expand B787 offering with B787-10ER and B781-11 with larger wings and more powerful engines.
OR
New Clean sheet design to replace B777-200ER and B777-300ER to compete directly with A350-900 and A350-1000.


you lost me there...um...have you looked at the sales numbers for the past 6 years? Boeing isn't who needs to change course here. Why would Boeing modify their plane into something that competes with an airframe that is being outsold by an inhouse product from last generation but with new engines (330N)?

Replacement cycles haven't diminished in the past 6 years- there is no rosy future just waiting right around the corner to reverse the current trends. Wasn't for 380, won't be for 77X or 350 either. At least everyone has accepted this for the 748, right?

Look, 330Neo outselling 359 over the former's lifespan is shouting something to anyone who is willing to listen.

What *current* sales data is showing us is that the market for which 777X, 350, 380, 748i were competing for is a *lot* smaller than anyone thought. The 777 is the new 747, a plane chosen because it had the range. Now that a much smaller bird has that range, everyone's looking to downsize yet again because of operating cost. Had a 767 sized plane been able to fly as far as the 777, the latter wouldn't have sold. Just like widebodies don't sell in competition for routes anymore where the NB has the payload range to do the route.

A bump in capability for the 78X, to enable true mid 7000s nm range would pretty much make any interest in the bigger jets nearly nonexistent...well, I guess if we look at the order books for 380, 777X, 35K, we don't see a lot...like what, 400 frames realistically? So the interest has already almost vanished.

The aircraft market is like that now- 777 sold 2000 frames. So a slam-dunk should be "just make a better 777." But it hasn't worked like that.


A350-900 and A350-1000 are on the different class compared to B777X, B747-8i and A380. Heck, the -1000 even had smaller capacity compared to B777-300ER.

Also, while B787-10ER is a good idea. It wouldn't be able to replace B777-300ER. Let's be clear here. And many airlines operate B777-300ER because of the range AND the capacity. Many major airports have slots restrictions. You seem to ignore this important key fact. Good luck trying to tell ANA, JAL, BA, EK or CX that there is no bigger plane other than B787-10ER.

A380 and B747-8i are too big, we know that since the day they are arrived. B777-8 got too much range that only few need. B777-9 are too big for most airlines. Again, it seems like B777-300ER within the 350 seat market are the largest one majority of airlines could handle now. This is taking account into its success and the fact that the slots restrictions on those airports aren't getting better anytime soon.

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