Aaargh.....it seems that the new Haneda slots are only effective from late March of 2020. So, Vistara is in a pickle since they are taking delivery of aircraft this month.

"The new slots will enter daily service at Haneda, officially called Tokyo International Airport, from late March."
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/ ... b77vuhKgfl

Could ANA have picked HND-BOS or was it preordained to be JAL because they already have BOS-NRT?

So, clarify this for me.

Are these new routes proposals or official? Surprisingly, I don't think many bloggers have picked up on this?

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/ ... b77vuhKgfl

"New flight paths over central Tokyo will be introduced in spring 2020, as the government plans to increase the number of international flight slots to 99,000 from about 60,000 before the Tokyo Games."

I though the Japanese were efficient and smart. Why can't they open up the slots now if they can also do it in the Spring of 2020? Why would advancing it to NOW be any more difficult?

While I am aware that the Japanese carriers can’t sell or trade the “new” Haneda slots can carriers sell or lease “existing” slots, as is the case with London Heathrow slots. I mean is there a market for existing Haneda slots and if so, what are examples of the value?

LondonXtreme wrote:

Starting from 2020 summer schedule, we will see as follow

[email protected]:

JFK 1 daily
ORD 1 daily
LAX 2 daily(proposed)
IAD 1 daily
IAH 1 daily
SEA 1 daily
SJC 1 daily
SFO 1 daily(proposed)
HNL 1 daily

[email protected]

JFK 2 daily(proposed)
SFO 1 daily
HNL 1 daily
DFW 1 daily
ORD 1 daily(proposed)
LAX 1 daily(proposed)
BOS 1 daily(proposed)

[email protected]

SFO 1 daily
LAX 1 or 2 daily
ORD 1 daily
JFK 1 daily

[email protected]

LAX 1 daily
SFO 1 daily(announced)
JFK 1 daily
ORD 1 daily
SEA 1 daily
SAN 1 daily
BOS 1 daily

p.s. I didn't count the HNL flights from NRT

Superb info which I posted on the Indian aviation forum as Vistara Airlines is starting flights from India to Tokyo and then connecting to JAL for flights to North America. May I request you to update your table above to include Canada as well? I am only interested in JAL. Thanks.

edealinfo wrote:

I though the Japanese were efficient and smart. Why can't they open up the slots now if they can also do it in the Spring of 2020? Why would advancing it to NOW be any more difficult?

Are you asking why they wouldnt move the flights from NRT to HND now? If so the answer to that is pretty obvious. NRT is a huge connecting point. Moving them too soon would require a great deal of re-accommodation and create a logistical nightmare. Thats why you want to put a few months between a shift like this.

LAXdude1023 wrote:

edealinfo wrote:

Are you asking why they wouldnt move the flights from NRT to HND now?

Japan has been planning on these additional flights for over 2 years. If they can allow these new flights in late March 2020, which coincides with the Summer 2020 schedule, why is it not technically feasible to allow those flights right now. Why wait for another 5 months?

I do understand that some airlines want to swap their flights from Narita to Haneda, and some want to start brand new flights to Haneda. At the very least they should allow the latter which will allow operations to gradually "scale up", as opposed to your contention that all flights (swap + new) should begin at the same time, which will be an even bigger problem, if there was one.

I wonder if the additional JFK and BOS flights from JAL are partly to help get better aircraft utilization out of frames that currently sit for 20+ hours on the ground at those stations. I believe NH currently does this with their LAX and ORD ops, where the inbound HND flight turns to NRT and the inbound NRT flight turns to HND.

One of the big surprises for me is that UA/NH isn't keeping at least one flight on IAD-NRT.

LondonXtreme wrote:

Starting from 2020 summer schedule, we will see as follow

[email protected]:

JFK 1 daily
ORD 1 daily
LAX 2 daily(proposed)
IAD 1 daily
IAH 1 daily
SEA 1 daily
SJC 1 daily
SFO 1 daily(proposed)
HNL 1 daily

[email protected]

JFK 2 daily(proposed)
SFO 1 daily
HNL 1 daily
DFW 1 daily
ORD 1 daily(proposed)
LAX 1 daily(proposed)
BOS 1 daily(proposed)

[email protected]

SFO 1 daily
LAX 1 or 2 daily
ORD 1 daily
JFK 1 daily

[email protected]

LAX 1 daily
SFO 1 daily(announced)
JFK 1 daily
ORD 1 daily
SEA 1 daily
SAN 1 daily
BOS 1 daily

p.s. I didn't count the HNL flights from NRT

I am trying to figure out how many new Tokyo flights there will be to the US next summer across all US and Japanese carriers. (I.e. how many HND flights are actually “new”, vs how many replace NRT flights). So someone correct me if I am counting incorrectly, but ignoring Hawaii there were 3 US airlines (AA, DL, UA) that also received HND slots.

The Delta adds were all 1-for-1 (drop 1 NRT, add 1 HND). The 2 new AA adds to HND we’re split, with 1 HND slot (DFW) replacing an existing NRT flight, and the other a new addition (LAX) as no AA NRT flights were dropped. United was also split 2 and 2, with the EWR and LAX flights to HND new additions, and the ORD and IAD flights to HND taking the place of existing NRT flights. In summary, ignoring Hawaii, the US3 added 3 new Tokyo flights combined with the HND slots, and the rest came at the expense of NRT flights.

What I can’t figure out is how many of these new NH/JL flights are new vs. replacing NRT. Add that number to the 3 new US3 adds, and we’ll have a total on new US-Tokyo flights for 2020 (again excluding Hawaii).

kavok wrote:

LondonXtreme wrote:

Starting from 2020 summer schedule, we will see as follow

[email protected]:

JFK 1 daily
ORD 1 daily
LAX 2 daily(proposed)
IAD 1 daily
IAH 1 daily
SEA 1 daily
SJC 1 daily
SFO 1 daily(proposed)
HNL 1 daily

[email protected]

JFK 2 daily(proposed)
SFO 1 daily
HNL 1 daily
DFW 1 daily
ORD 1 daily(proposed)
LAX 1 daily(proposed)
BOS 1 daily(proposed)

[email protected]

SFO 1 daily
LAX 1 or 2 daily
ORD 1 daily
JFK 1 daily

[email protected]

LAX 1 daily
SFO 1 daily(announced)
JFK 1 daily
ORD 1 daily
SEA 1 daily
SAN 1 daily
BOS 1 daily

p.s. I didn't count the HNL flights from NRT

I am trying to figure out how many new Tokyo flights there will be to the US next summer across all US and Japanese carriers. (I.e. how many HND flights are actually “new”, vs how many replace NRT flights). So someone correct me if I am counting incorrectly, but ignoring Hawaii there were 3 US airlines (AA, DL, UA) that also received HND slots.

The Delta adds were all 1-for-1 (drop 1 NRT, add 1 HND). The 2 new AA adds to HND we’re split, with 1 HND slot (DFW) replacing an existing NRT flight, and the other a new addition (LAX) as no AA NRT flights were dropped. United was also split 2 and 2, with the EWR and LAX flights to HND new additions, and the ORD and IAD flights to HND taking the place of existing NRT flights. In summary, ignoring Hawaii, the US3 added 3 new Tokyo flights combined with the HND slots, and the rest came at the expense of NRT flights.

What I can’t figure out is how many of these new NH/JL flights are new vs. replacing NRT. Add that number to the 3 new US3 adds, and we’ll have a total on new US-Tokyo flights for 2020 (again excluding Hawaii).

Don’t forget AA is dropping its 3x weekly ORD-NRT in January.

kavok wrote:

The Delta adds were all 1-for-1 (drop 1 NRT, add 1 HND). The 2 new AA adds to HND we’re split, with 1 HND slot (DFW) replacing an existing NRT flight, and the other a new addition (LAX) as no AA NRT flights were dropped. United was also split 2 and 2, with the EWR and LAX flights to HND new additions, and the ORD and IAD flights to HND taking the place of existing NRT flights. In summary, ignoring Hawaii, the US3 added 3 new Tokyo flights combined with the HND slots, and the rest came at the expense of NRT flights.

It looks from this that DL is the big winner here among the 3 US carriers. They get a revenue bump by moving their entire operations from NRT to Haneda; so, increased revue from a better placed airport with zero risk and zero additional cost. Delta has it so good recently. I mean think of the recent 20% stake in LATAM, past 49% stake in Virgin and Aero Mexico, and KLM/AirFrance/Virgin transatlantic joint venture.

Ishrion wrote:

kavok wrote:

LondonXtreme wrote:

Starting from 2020 summer schedule, we will see as follow

[email protected]:

JFK 1 daily
ORD 1 daily
LAX 2 daily(proposed)
IAD 1 daily
IAH 1 daily
SEA 1 daily
SJC 1 daily
SFO 1 daily(proposed)
HNL 1 daily

[email protected]

JFK 2 daily(proposed)
SFO 1 daily
HNL 1 daily
DFW 1 daily
ORD 1 daily(proposed)
LAX 1 daily(proposed)
BOS 1 daily(proposed)

[email protected]

SFO 1 daily
LAX 1 or 2 daily
ORD 1 daily
JFK 1 daily

[email protected]

LAX 1 daily
SFO 1 daily(announced)
JFK 1 daily
ORD 1 daily
SEA 1 daily
SAN 1 daily
BOS 1 daily

p.s. I didn't count the HNL flights from NRT

I am trying to figure out how many new Tokyo flights there will be to the US next summer across all US and Japanese carriers. (I.e. how many HND flights are actually “new”, vs how many replace NRT flights). So someone correct me if I am counting incorrectly, but ignoring Hawaii there were 3 US airlines (AA, DL, UA) that also received HND slots.

The Delta adds were all 1-for-1 (drop 1 NRT, add 1 HND). The 2 new AA adds to HND we’re split, with 1 HND slot (DFW) replacing an existing NRT flight, and the other a new addition (LAX) as no AA NRT flights were dropped. United was also split 2 and 2, with the EWR and LAX flights to HND new additions, and the ORD and IAD flights to HND taking the place of existing NRT flights. In summary, ignoring Hawaii, the US3 added 3 new Tokyo flights combined with the HND slots, and the rest came at the expense of NRT flights.

What I can’t figure out is how many of these new NH/JL flights are new vs. replacing NRT. Add that number to the 3 new US3 adds, and we’ll have a total on new US-Tokyo flights for 2020 (again excluding Hawaii).

Don’t forget AA is dropping its 3x weekly ORD-NRT in January.

Good observation, I forgot about that one. So effectively the US3 is seeing a net addition of 2.5 daily Tokyo flights with the new HND slots, once the NRT drops are factored in. That is roughly about a 10% capacity increase based on frequency alone, without going into the details as far as metal upgauges and seat numbers.

edealinfo wrote:

LAXdude1023 wrote:

edealinfo wrote:

Are you asking why they wouldnt move the flights from NRT to HND now?

Japan has been planning on these additional flights for over 2 years. If they can allow these new flights in late March 2020, which coincides with the Summer 2020 schedule, why is it not technically feasible to allow those flights right now. Why wait for another 5 months?

I do understand that some airlines want to swap their flights from Narita to Haneda, and some want to start brand new flights to Haneda. At the very least they should allow the latter which will allow operations to gradually "scale up", as opposed to your contention that all flights (swap + new) should begin at the same time, which will be an even bigger problem, if there was one.

Airport slots are allocated for a complete IATA season. Slots for IATA Winter 2019/20 were allocated months ago, and therefore new routes cannot be launched at Haneda during IATA Winter. All that the airlines have been allocated so far are the route authorities, which are different to landing slots. IIRC the slot conference for IATA Summer 2020 is this week, and after that conference the carriers who have been awarded route authorities should have Haneda slots to actually use those authorities, starting from IATA Summer 2020 as the next available IATA season. I guess NH/JL could theoretically launch now by reshuffling their existing slot portfolio, but to maintain a level playing field all new authorities commence for IATA Summer.

I don't know how much "Daily Aviation" 日刊航空 is reliable. ANA plan seems plausible, but JAL plan seems to cause excessive supply.

FSDan wrote:

I wonder if the additional JFK and BOS flights from JAL are partly to help get better aircraft utilization out of frames that currently sit for 20+ hours on the ground at those stations. I believe NH currently does this with their LAX and ORD ops, where the inbound HND flight turns to NRT and the inbound NRT flight turns to HND.

One of the big surprises for me is that UA/NH isn't keeping at least one flight on IAD-NRT.

I took JAL 7/8 last month BOS-NRT-BOS. Yes, that 789 does sit for 20 hours off to the side in Boston. However, very rarely is the outbound late getting out. Probably due to the fact that they've got so much time to prep the plane for the next day's journey.

So if the JAL 789 from NRT to BOS gets in around 5:30 pm or so, you're saying that it would go right back out to HND?

kavok wrote:

Ishrion wrote:

kavok wrote:

I am trying to figure out how many new Tokyo flights there will be to the US next summer across all US and Japanese carriers. (I.e. how many HND flights are actually “new”, vs how many replace NRT flights). So someone correct me if I am counting incorrectly, but ignoring Hawaii there were 3 US airlines (AA, DL, UA) that also received HND slots.

The Delta adds were all 1-for-1 (drop 1 NRT, add 1 HND). The 2 new AA adds to HND we’re split, with 1 HND slot (DFW) replacing an existing NRT flight, and the other a new addition (LAX) as no AA NRT flights were dropped. United was also split 2 and 2, with the EWR and LAX flights to HND new additions, and the ORD and IAD flights to HND taking the place of existing NRT flights. In summary, ignoring Hawaii, the US3 added 3 new Tokyo flights combined with the HND slots, and the rest came at the expense of NRT flights.

What I can’t figure out is how many of these new NH/JL flights are new vs. replacing NRT. Add that number to the 3 new US3 adds, and we’ll have a total on new US-Tokyo flights for 2020 (again excluding Hawaii).

Don’t forget AA is dropping its 3x weekly ORD-NRT in January.

Good observation, I forgot about that one. So effectively the US3 is seeing a net addition of 2.5 daily Tokyo flights with the new HND slots, once the NRT drops are factored in. That is roughly about a 10% capacity increase based on frequency alone, without going into the details as far as metal upgauges and seat numbers.

Actually, AA's new HND flights both replace existing NRT flights (LAX-NRT goes from 1x to 0x, and DFW-NRT goes from 2x to 1x), so UA is the only one of the US3 adding new flights. DL is flat. AA is down 0.5 due to the ORD-NRT cut, although I'm guessing JL's new ORD-HND will replace the 4x weekly ORD-NRT they were complimenting AA on for a net wash in ORD-TYO frequencies. The net new flights from the Japanese airlines are SFO-NRT (JL), SFO-HND (NH), LAX-HND (JL), JFK-HND (JL), and BOS-HND (JL). I don't think it has been explicitly stated yet, but I'd be surprised if NH's new LAX-HND flight doesn't replace one of their two existing LAX-NRT flights. Same for JL's new HNL-HND.

ChrisNH38 wrote:

FSDan wrote:

I wonder if the additional JFK and BOS flights from JAL are partly to help get better aircraft utilization out of frames that currently sit for 20+ hours on the ground at those stations. I believe NH currently does this with their LAX and ORD ops, where the inbound HND flight turns to NRT and the inbound NRT flight turns to HND.

One of the big surprises for me is that UA/NH isn't keeping at least one flight on IAD-NRT.

I took JAL 7/8 last month BOS-NRT-BOS. Yes, that 789 does sit for 20 hours off to the side in Boston. However, very rarely is the outbound late getting out. Probably due to the fact that they've got so much time to prep the plane for the next day's journey.

So if the JAL 789 from NRT to BOS gets in around 5:30 pm or so, you're saying that it would go right back out to HND?

It's just a hunch. I don't think either of the Japanese airlines are awash in new widebody deliveries, so they're going to have to cut something or else find efficiencies in their existing fleet utilization. The new JFK and BOS flights seem like they could be potential optimization opportunities given the long ground times, and the fact that there's already a precedent for rotating aircraft between NRT and HND on long haul flights (at least for NH).

That said, I don't know if the timing for such a rotation works as well for East Cost stations as it does for LAX and ORD. It would probably entail having a late night departure on BOS/JFK-HND, and we know how that went for AA a few years ago...

edealinfo wrote:

kavok wrote:

The Delta adds were all 1-for-1 (drop 1 NRT, add 1 HND). The 2 new AA adds to HND we’re split, with 1 HND slot (DFW) replacing an existing NRT flight, and the other a new addition (LAX) as no AA NRT flights were dropped. United was also split 2 and 2, with the EWR and LAX flights to HND new additions, and the ORD and IAD flights to HND taking the place of existing NRT flights. In summary, ignoring Hawaii, the US3 added 3 new Tokyo flights combined with the HND slots, and the rest came at the expense of NRT flights.

It looks from this that DL is the big winner here among the 3 US carriers. They get a revenue bump by moving their entire operations from NRT to Haneda; so, increased revue from a better placed airport with zero risk and zero additional cost. Delta has it so good recently. I mean think of the recent 20% stake in LATAM, past 49% stake in Virgin and Aero Mexico, and KLM/AirFrance/Virgin transatlantic joint venture.

Yes and no. It's a win in that they get to keep all their existing U.S-TYO operations and move them to a more convenient airport, but they are losing the feed from MNL and SIN in the process. More significantly than that, their competitors are going to have significant advantages in some key markets due to their immunized JVs. UA+NH will have at least 5 daily LAX-TYO flights and AA+JL will have 4, with 3 to HND for each JV. DL has one daily LAX-TYO flight, and will have to compete on brand loyalty and/or price to fill it since they can't compete on schedule. Same story in NYC. Each JV will have 3-4 daily flights to TYO, making it very hard for DL to jump in here successfully, important market though it is.

ChrisNH38 wrote:

FSDan wrote:

I wonder if the additional JFK and BOS flights from JAL are partly to help get better aircraft utilization out of frames that currently sit for 20+ hours on the ground at those stations. I believe NH currently does this with their LAX and ORD ops, where the inbound HND flight turns to NRT and the inbound NRT flight turns to HND.

One of the big surprises for me is that UA/NH isn't keeping at least one flight on IAD-NRT.

I took JAL 7/8 last month BOS-NRT-BOS. Yes, that 789 does sit for 20 hours off to the side in Boston. However, very rarely is the outbound late getting out. Probably due to the fact that they've got so much time to prep the plane for the next day's journey.

So if the JAL 789 from NRT to BOS gets in around 5:30 pm or so, you're saying that it would go right back out to HND?

Assuming ChrisNH38 is correct about NH at ORD, it looks like a full loop NRT-ORD-HND-ORD-NRT would be as follows:

dep NRT 5:05p arr ORD 1:50p
(2:30 stop @ ORD)
dep ORD 4:20p arr HND 8:35p

dep HND 10:25a arr ORD 7:05a
(2:55 stop @ ORD)
dep ORD 10:00a arr NRT 2:20p
(2:45 stop @ NRT)

Similar times for the current JL BOS flights would be as follows I think:

dep NRT 12:10p arr BOS 4:20p
(2:50 stop @ BOS)
dep BOS 7:10p arr HND 11:20p

dep HND 5:10p arr BOS 3:45p
(2:45 stop @ BOS)
dep BOS 6:30p arr NRT 5:05p

That 11:20p arrival at HND would be problematic -- transit would be shut down before anyone got out of the airport. No idea if JL has the flexibility to change the timings on the NRT-BOS flight or not.

My only frame of reference as far as Boston is concerned is how Hainan does it from Shanghai and Beijing. Both flights arrive in Boston from those respective cities generally within an hour of each other. A few hours later, they go right back out...sometimes nose to tail.

In my view, employee utilization in Boston is really efficient that way because those inbound and outbound flights are tightly coupled.

dtremit wrote:

Similar times for the current JL BOS flights would be as follows I think:

dep NRT 12:10p arr BOS 4:20p
(2:50 stop @ BOS)
dep BOS 7:10p arr HND 11:20p

dep HND 5:10p arr BOS 3:45p
(2:45 stop @ BOS)
dep BOS 6:30p arr NRT 5:05p

That 11:20p arrival at HND would be problematic -- transit would be shut down before anyone got out of the airport. No idea if JL has the flexibility to change the timings on the NRT-BOS flight or not.

Is the NRT 12:10p departure time correct ... the flight time seems too long?!

ASA wrote:

dtremit wrote:

Similar times for the current JL BOS flights would be as follows I think:

dep NRT 12:10p arr BOS 4:20p
(2:50 stop @ BOS)
dep BOS 7:10p arr HND 11:20p

dep HND 5:10p arr BOS 3:45p
(2:45 stop @ BOS)
dep BOS 6:30p arr NRT 5:05p

That 11:20p arrival at HND would be problematic -- transit would be shut down before anyone got out of the airport. No idea if JL has the flexibility to change the timings on the NRT-BOS flight or not.

Is the NRT 12:10p departure time correct ... the flight time seems too long?!

I agree. a 12:10 pm departure from NRT should be getting in 12 hours later. Given the 14-hour time difference, around 2:10 pm arrival in Boston. Going over on JAL 7 it's about a 13-hour flight. Coming back on 8, it was 12 hours...and we went way up over Alaska rather than cutting through the YVR/SEA neighborhood.

ASA wrote:

dtremit wrote:

Similar times for the current JL BOS flights would be as follows I think:

dep NRT 12:10p arr BOS 4:20p
(2:50 stop @ BOS)
dep BOS 7:10p arr HND 11:20p

dep HND 5:10p arr BOS 3:45p
(2:45 stop @ BOS)
dep BOS 6:30p arr NRT 5:05p

That 11:20p arrival at HND would be problematic -- transit would be shut down before anyone got out of the airport. No idea if JL has the flexibility to change the timings on the NRT-BOS flight or not.

Is the NRT 12:10p departure time correct ... the flight time seems too long?!

Yes, something is off. The current BOS flight leaves NRT at 6:30pm and arrives at 5:05pm.

So at 12:10pm should arrive around 11am, easily allowing for an early afternoon (1pm or 2pm) departure back to HND and arriving around 7-8pm.

clrd4t8koff wrote:

ASA wrote:

dtremit wrote:

Similar times for the current JL BOS flights would be as follows I think:

dep NRT 12:10p arr BOS 4:20p
(2:50 stop @ BOS)
dep BOS 7:10p arr HND 11:20p

dep HND 5:10p arr BOS 3:45p
(2:45 stop @ BOS)
dep BOS 6:30p arr NRT 5:05p

That 11:20p arrival at HND would be problematic -- transit would be shut down before anyone got out of the airport. No idea if JL has the flexibility to change the timings on the NRT-BOS flight or not.

Is the NRT 12:10p departure time correct ... the flight time seems too long?!

Yes, something is off. The current BOS flight leaves NRT at 6:30pm and arrives at 5:05pm.

So at 12:10pm should arrive around 11am, easily allowing for an early afternoon (1pm or 2pm) departure back to HND and arriving around 7-8pm.

Yup, my mistake -- I transposed the current BOS-NRT and NRT-BOS flights. It's currently:
dep NRT 6:30p arr BOS 5:05p
dep BOS 12:10p arr NRT 4:20p

I've taken that flight; I can't believe I didn't catch that!

That said, it makes the Haneda issue slightly worse -- with the current NRT-BOS arriving at 5:05pm, the reverse BOS-HND probably couldn't realistically depart before ~7:30pm. That's a lot later than NH's (shorter) ORD-HND, and would result in a HND arrival pretty close to midnight.

Edited to add -- a quick spot check of flights suggests most of JAL's westbound connections from NRT leave at 6PM -- many flights having only one option daily. So I can't imagine they have a lot of latitude to retime the BOS-NRT flight.

dtremit wrote:

clrd4t8koff wrote:

ASA wrote:

Is the NRT 12:10p departure time correct ... the flight time seems too long?!

Yes, something is off. The current BOS flight leaves NRT at 6:30pm and arrives at 5:05pm.

So at 12:10pm should arrive around 11am, easily allowing for an early afternoon (1pm or 2pm) departure back to HND and arriving around 7-8pm.

Yup, my mistake -- I transposed the current BOS-NRT and NRT-BOS flights. It's currently:
dep NRT 6:30p arr BOS 5:05p
dep BOS 12:10p arr NRT 4:20p

I've taken that flight; I can't believe I didn't catch that!

That said, it makes the Haneda issue slightly worse -- with the current NRT-BOS arriving at 5:05pm, the reverse BOS-HND probably couldn't realistically depart before ~7:30pm. That's a lot later than NH's (shorter) ORD-HND, and would result in a HND arrival pretty close to midnight.

Edited to add -- a quick spot check of flights suggests most of JAL's westbound connections from NRT leave at 6PM -- many flights having only one option daily. So I can't imagine they have a lot of latitude to retime the BOS-NRT flight.

So they would probably do something similar to NH’s schedules to JFK:

NRT-JFK:

4:40pm - 3:10pm

JFK-NRT:

10:45am - 3pm +1 (inbound from HND arriving at 9am)

HND - JFK:

10:20am -9am

JFK - HND:

4:55pm - 9:10pm (inbound from NRT arriving at 3pm)

https://www.msn.com/ja-jp/money/news/%E ... ar-AAJJ1bk
Article in Japanese from Yomiuri

ANA will decrease about 10x daily Narita-bound flights as they expects pilot shortages after Haneda expansion.
They have on average 42 daily int'l flights currently, so it'll be about a 20% decrease (!!) in capacity.

https://www.aviationwire.jp/archives/186334
Article in Japanese

Pieter Elbus, CEO of KLM, does not want to give up seeking Haneda slots.
(I don't know if there's any chance left.)

ITSTours wrote:

https://www.msn.com/ja-jp/money/news/%E5%85%A8%E6%97%A5%E7%A9%BA%E3%80%81%E3%83%91%E3%82%A4%E3%83%AD%E3%83%83%E3%83%88%E4%B8%8D%E8%B6%B3%E3%81%A7%E6%88%90%E7%94%B0%E5%9B%BD%E9%9A%9B%E7%B7%9A%E3%82%92%E6%B8%9B%E4%BE%BF%E3%81%B8/ar-AAJJ1bk
Article in Japanese from Yomiuri

ANA will decrease about 10x daily Narita-bound flights as they expects pilot shortages after Haneda expansion.
They have on average 42 daily int'l flights currently, so it'll be about a 20% decrease (!!) in capacity.

I can see ORD-NRT gone from NH and maybe JL ORD-NRT too as NH already serves ORD-HND after the slot increase, UA & JL are moving ORD-NRT to ORD-HND. I don't think ORD can handle 5x daily flights to Tokyo, the route is overserved. Look at the comparison to flights to other Asian destinations from ORD. ICN is 1x daily, HKG is 1x daily, TPE is 1x daily. What makes Tokyo have more than triple the demand from ORD compared to the other asian hubs?

YYZORD wrote:

ITSTours wrote:

https://www.msn.com/ja-jp/money/news/%E5%85%A8%E6%97%A5%E7%A9%BA%E3%80%81%E3%83%91%E3%82%A4%E3%83%AD%E3%83%83%E3%83%88%E4%B8%8D%E8%B6%B3%E3%81%A7%E6%88%90%E7%94%B0%E5%9B%BD%E9%9A%9B%E7%B7%9A%E3%82%92%E6%B8%9B%E4%BE%BF%E3%81%B8/ar-AAJJ1bk
Article in Japanese from Yomiuri

ANA will decrease about 10x daily Narita-bound flights as they expects pilot shortages after Haneda expansion.
They have on average 42 daily int'l flights currently, so it'll be about a 20% decrease (!!) in capacity.

I can see ORD-NRT gone from NH and maybe JL ORD-NRT too as NH already serves ORD-HND after the slot increase, UA & JL are moving ORD-NRT to ORD-HND. I don't think ORD can handle 5x daily flights to Tokyo, the route is overserved. Look at the comparison to flights to other Asian destinations from ORD. ICN is 1x daily, HKG is 1x daily, TPE is 1x daily. What makes Tokyo have more than triple the demand from ORD compared to the other asian hubs?

Except ORD-TYO has been about 5x for years. There’s just been reshuffling.

jbs2886 wrote:

YYZORD wrote:

ITSTours wrote:

https://www.msn.com/ja-jp/money/news/%E5%85%A8%E6%97%A5%E7%A9%BA%E3%80%81%E3%83%91%E3%82%A4%E3%83%AD%E3%83%83%E3%83%88%E4%B8%8D%E8%B6%B3%E3%81%A7%E6%88%90%E7%94%B0%E5%9B%BD%E9%9A%9B%E7%B7%9A%E3%82%92%E6%B8%9B%E4%BE%BF%E3%81%B8/ar-AAJJ1bk
Article in Japanese from Yomiuri

ANA will decrease about 10x daily Narita-bound flights as they expects pilot shortages after Haneda expansion.
They have on average 42 daily int'l flights currently, so it'll be about a 20% decrease (!!) in capacity.

I can see ORD-NRT gone from NH and maybe JL ORD-NRT too as NH already serves ORD-HND after the slot increase, UA & JL are moving ORD-NRT to ORD-HND. I don't think ORD can handle 5x daily flights to Tokyo, the route is overserved. Look at the comparison to flights to other Asian destinations from ORD. ICN is 1x daily, HKG is 1x daily, TPE is 1x daily. What makes Tokyo have more than triple the demand from ORD compared to the other asian hubs?

Except ORD-TYO has been about 5x for years. There’s just been reshuffling.

Yes which im surprised as to why ICN, TPE, and HKG can't succeed at ORD compared to HND/NRT? OZ and AA cut all their asian flights to ORD and UA cut HKG. 1x daily at other asian hubs vs 5x daily in Tokyo is a lot.

YYZORD wrote:

jbs2886 wrote:

YYZORD wrote:

I can see ORD-NRT gone from NH and maybe JL ORD-NRT too as NH already serves ORD-HND after the slot increase, UA & JL are moving ORD-NRT to ORD-HND. I don't think ORD can handle 5x daily flights to Tokyo, the route is overserved. Look at the comparison to flights to other Asian destinations from ORD. ICN is 1x daily, HKG is 1x daily, TPE is 1x daily. What makes Tokyo have more than triple the demand from ORD compared to the other asian hubs?

Except ORD-TYO has been about 5x for years. There’s just been reshuffling.

Yes which im surprised as to why ICN, TPE, and HKG can't succeed at ORD compared to HND/NRT? OZ and AA cut all their asian flights to ORD and UA cut HKG. 1x daily at other asian hubs vs 5x daily in Tokyo is a lot.

I think ORD-NRT can maintain being 2x daily, once by NH and once by JL. Chicago is a top 5 US O&D destination (behind HNL, LAX, NYC, and maybe SFO) from Tokyo based on business ties. The NRT flight is crucial because that's the only link for the AA/JL JV to Asian destinations beyond Japan. Even for NH/UA, ORD-NRT-XXX is the fastest option to secondary China and Southeast Asia destinations like SGN, BKK, KUL, SIN, CGK. Don't forget that ORD also pulls a ton of connections from the US heartland where a lot of traditional industries are located.

YYZORD wrote:

jbs2886 wrote:

YYZORD wrote:

I can see ORD-NRT gone from NH and maybe JL ORD-NRT too as NH already serves ORD-HND after the slot increase, UA & JL are moving ORD-NRT to ORD-HND. I don't think ORD can handle 5x daily flights to Tokyo, the route is overserved. Look at the comparison to flights to other Asian destinations from ORD. ICN is 1x daily, HKG is 1x daily, TPE is 1x daily. What makes Tokyo have more than triple the demand from ORD compared to the other asian hubs?

Except ORD-TYO has been about 5x for years. There’s just been reshuffling.

Yes which im surprised as to why ICN, TPE, and HKG can't succeed at ORD compared to HND/NRT? OZ and AA cut all their asian flights to ORD and UA cut HKG. 1x daily at other asian hubs vs 5x daily in Tokyo is a lot.

Why? ORD-TYO is much larger a local market than those other cities and both hubbing carriers at ORD have joint ventures with JL and NH respectively.

Is there a chance of Milano - Tokyo moving to Haneda?
Bit strange to have Rome and Milano landing into different airports, no?
Seems most other airlines fly from one major city into either airport or into both, but not one airline flying from 2 major cities for one airport each.

Milano777 wrote:

Is there a chance of Milano - Tokyo moving to Haneda?
Bit strange to have Rome and Milano landing into different airports, no?
Seems most other airlines fly from one major city into either airport or into both, but not one airline flying from 2 major cities for one airport each.

Garuda has the same problem. CGK-HND and DPS-NRT

FromCDGtoSYD wrote:

Milano777 wrote:

Is there a chance of Milano - Tokyo moving to Haneda?
Bit strange to have Rome and Milano landing into different airports, no?
Seems most other airlines fly from one major city into either airport or into both, but not one airline flying from 2 major cities for one airport each.

Garuda has the same problem. CGK-HND and DPS-NRT

Good shout, I'm interested to know who else has this issue but yes,
Would be amazing to see 2 x Alitalia planes at HND at same time

YYZORD wrote:

I can see ORD-NRT gone from NH and maybe JL ORD-NRT too as NH already serves ORD-HND after the slot increase, UA & JL are moving ORD-NRT to ORD-HND. I don't think ORD can handle 5x daily flights to Tokyo, the route is overserved. Look at the comparison to flights to other Asian destinations from ORD. ICN is 1x daily, HKG is 1x daily, TPE is 1x daily. What makes Tokyo have more than triple the demand from ORD compared to the other asian hubs?

NH cutting ORD-NRT would necessitate changes to the timing of their ORD-HND flight. Right now there's a morning arrival from HND that turns back to NRT late morning, and an afternoon arrival from NRT that turns back to HND. It's nice because it offers some different schedule options between ORD and TYO.

I'd expect NH to cut their 2nd daily LAX-NRT flight and possibly even their SFO-NRT flight before ORD-NRT. Keep in mind that UA/NH will probably want to keep all UA's hubs connected to NRT in one way or another, given that NRT remains the JV's principle connecting hub to Southeast Asia. With UA moving ORD-NRT to ORD-HND, I think they'll want NH to keep ORD-NRT. With UA remaining on SFO-NRT and LAX-NRT, that gives some flexibility for NH to trim those markets while allowing the JV to keep a foot in the door, as it were. SFO and LAX are also the two airports that are best connected to beyond-NRT markets on a nonstop basis, theoretically lessening the need to flow a ton of connections over NRT.

Milano777 wrote:

Is there a chance of Milano - Tokyo moving to Haneda?
Bit strange to have Rome and Milano landing into different airports, no?
Seems most other airlines fly from one major city into either airport or into both, but not one airline flying from 2 major cities for one airport each.

Isn't there a chance that AZ is going to cut MXP-NRT entirely? I thought that was part of the restructuring plan, along with cutting FCO-SCL and FCO-DEL, and starting FCO-SFO.

FSDan wrote:

Milano777 wrote:

Is there a chance of Milano - Tokyo moving to Haneda?
Bit strange to have Rome and Milano landing into different airports, no?
Seems most other airlines fly from one major city into either airport or into both, but not one airline flying from 2 major cities for one airport each.

Isn't there a chance that AZ is going to cut MXP-NRT entirely? I thought that was part of the restructuring plan, along with cutting FCO-SCL and FCO-DEL, and starting FCO-SFO.

I doubt it, Tokyo is one of the most profitable destinations in AZ, both Milan and Tokyo are great fashion industries, plus the great tourism between both countries, there is a strong demand for O&D and VFR in both directions, in which case MXP could move -NRT to FCO-NRT. Also the same happens with MXP-JFK a lot of demand for the route and likewise it is a very profitable route in the Alitalia network, a lot of executive traffic of the fashion industry, routes that if AZ should disappear would be like JNB, DEL or SCL that are low performance

Will any of the 9 countries not use their newly allocated Haneda slots? If so, which ones? And if they don’t use the slots, how long before those slots go back to the Japanese authorities for redistribution.

edealinfo wrote:

Will any of the 9 countries not use their newly allocated Haneda slots? If so, which ones? And if they don’t use the slots, how long before those slots go back to the Japanese authorities for redistribution.

For any country not using their haneda slots and then going to distribution, I hope Canada gets more Haneda slots along w Switzerland and New Zealand getting their first haneda slots. LX for example can move ZRH-NRT to ZRH-HND or NH can add HND-ZRH. AC can move YVR-NRT to YVR-HND while NH can add HND-YYZ if they think its better than adding NRT-YYZ.

Milano777 wrote:

Is there a chance of Milano - Tokyo moving to Haneda?
Bit strange to have Rome and Milano landing into different airports, no?
Seems most other airlines fly from one major city into either airport or into both, but not one airline flying from 2 major cities for one airport each.

Apparently ANA is to start MXP-HND.

Michael

FSDan wrote:

Actually, AA's new HND flights both replace existing NRT flights (LAX-NRT goes from 1x to 0x, and DFW-NRT goes from 2x to 1x), so UA is the only one of the US3 adding new flights. DL is flat. AA is down 0.5 due to the ORD-NRT cut, although I'm guessing JL's new ORD-HND will replace the 4x weekly ORD-NRT they were complimenting AA on for a net wash in ORD-TYO frequencies. The net new flights from the Japanese airlines are SFO-NRT (JL), SFO-HND (NH), LAX-HND (JL), JFK-HND (JL), and BOS-HND (JL). I don't think it has been explicitly stated yet, but I'd be surprised if NH's new LAX-HND flight doesn't replace one of their two existing LAX-NRT flights. Same for JL's new HNL-HND.

SO, the grand strategy by the Japanese to increase the overall number of flights to Japan to encourage tourism for the 2020 Olympics by opening up new Haneda slots, HAS FAILED, miserably! All that has happened is that airlines shifted their flights from Narita to Haneda, How could the Japanese get it so wrong???

edealinfo wrote:

FSDan wrote:

Actually, AA's new HND flights both replace existing NRT flights (LAX-NRT goes from 1x to 0x, and DFW-NRT goes from 2x to 1x), so UA is the only one of the US3 adding new flights. DL is flat. AA is down 0.5 due to the ORD-NRT cut, although I'm guessing JL's new ORD-HND will replace the 4x weekly ORD-NRT they were complimenting AA on for a net wash in ORD-TYO frequencies. The net new flights from the Japanese airlines are SFO-NRT (JL), SFO-HND (NH), LAX-HND (JL), JFK-HND (JL), and BOS-HND (JL). I don't think it has been explicitly stated yet, but I'd be surprised if NH's new LAX-HND flight doesn't replace one of their two existing LAX-NRT flights. Same for JL's new HNL-HND.

SO, the grand strategy by the Japanese to increase the overall number of flights to Japan to encourage tourism for the 2020 Olympics by opening up new Haneda slots, HAS FAILED, miserably! All that has happened is that airlines shifted their flights from Narita to Haneda, How could the Japanese get it so wrong???

BOS and others were supposed to get HND in ADDITION to NRT. That’s not shifting...that’s adding.

ChrisNH38 wrote:

edealinfo wrote:

FSDan wrote:

Actually, AA's new HND flights both replace existing NRT flights (LAX-NRT goes from 1x to 0x, and DFW-NRT goes from 2x to 1x), so UA is the only one of the US3 adding new flights. DL is flat. AA is down 0.5 due to the ORD-NRT cut, although I'm guessing JL's new ORD-HND will replace the 4x weekly ORD-NRT they were complimenting AA on for a net wash in ORD-TYO frequencies. The net new flights from the Japanese airlines are SFO-NRT (JL), SFO-HND (NH), LAX-HND (JL), JFK-HND (JL), and BOS-HND (JL). I don't think it has been explicitly stated yet, but I'd be surprised if NH's new LAX-HND flight doesn't replace one of their two existing LAX-NRT flights. Same for JL's new HNL-HND.

SO, the grand strategy by the Japanese to increase the overall number of flights to Japan to encourage tourism for the 2020 Olympics by opening up new Haneda slots, HAS FAILED, miserably! All that has happened is that airlines shifted their flights from Narita to Haneda, How could the Japanese get it so wrong???

BOS and others were supposed to get HND in ADDITION to NRT. That’s not shifting...that’s adding.

So, Japan opened 50 new slots, and only 3 are new. That's the same as 0 in my books.

ChrisNH38 wrote:

edealinfo wrote:

FSDan wrote:

Actually, AA's new HND flights both replace existing NRT flights (LAX-NRT goes from 1x to 0x, and DFW-NRT goes from 2x to 1x), so UA is the only one of the US3 adding new flights. DL is flat. AA is down 0.5 due to the ORD-NRT cut, although I'm guessing JL's new ORD-HND will replace the 4x weekly ORD-NRT they were complimenting AA on for a net wash in ORD-TYO frequencies. The net new flights from the Japanese airlines are SFO-NRT (JL), SFO-HND (NH), LAX-HND (JL), JFK-HND (JL), and BOS-HND (JL). I don't think it has been explicitly stated yet, but I'd be surprised if NH's new LAX-HND flight doesn't replace one of their two existing LAX-NRT flights. Same for JL's new HNL-HND.

SO, the grand strategy by the Japanese to increase the overall number of flights to Japan to encourage tourism for the 2020 Olympics by opening up new Haneda slots, HAS FAILED, miserably! All that has happened is that airlines shifted their flights from Narita to Haneda, How could the Japanese get it so wrong???

BOS and others were supposed to get HND in ADDITION to NRT. That’s not shifting...that’s adding.

What is happening here is what happened in London in 2008, most LGW flights by US airlines moved to LHR. HND can only absorb so many flights as they only have one international terminal at capacity. HND in April 2020 will be full. Even when ANA moves some flights to a new international annex at their domestic terminal that will only move about a dozen flights. Interesting to see if new NRT flights happen ?

edealinfo wrote:

SO, the grand strategy by the Japanese to increase the overall number of flights to Japan to encourage tourism for the 2020 Olympics by opening up new Haneda slots, HAS FAILED, miserably! All that has happened is that airlines shifted their flights from Narita to Haneda, How could the Japanese get it so wrong???

Not necessarily, HND doesn't have the onward connectivity that NRT has, so theoretically, most of the passengers booking flights to HND will mainly be O&D. Passengers who previously relied on 1-stop flights via NRT will have to connect in SFO/YVR/SEA or fly another carrier and connect at another hub.

Offhand, what is the long term outlook like for NRT as an international airport serving Tokyo?

With most foreign carriers eventually transferring to HND and even Japanese carriers moving US, Europe and some Asian flights from NRT to HND, how will NRT grow and compete?

What will the competitive landscape look like for NRT and HND in say 10-20 years?

irishpower wrote:

Offhand, what is the long term outlook like for NRT as an international airport serving Tokyo?

With most foreign carriers eventually transferring to HND and even Japanese carriers moving US, Europe and some Asian flights from NRT to HND, how will NRT grow and compete?

What will the competitive landscape look like for NRT and HND in say 10-20 years?

I don’t think new slots will open up at HND for the next few years? So after carriers are leaving NRT, new slots will open up there allowing for more international expansion.

Ishrion wrote:

irishpower wrote:

Offhand, what is the long term outlook like for NRT as an international airport serving Tokyo?

With most foreign carriers eventually transferring to HND and even Japanese carriers moving US, Europe and some Asian flights from NRT to HND, how will NRT grow and compete?

What will the competitive landscape look like for NRT and HND in say 10-20 years?

I don’t think new slots will open up at HND for the next few years? So after carriers are leaving NRT, new slots will open up there allowing for more international expansion.

Beyond the additional 50 slot frequency add at HND starting March 2020, how many more slots can HND add theoretically after the add of the 50 new slots before HND reaches ultimate maximum capacity for slots?