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Stitch
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 5:58 pm

scbriml wrote:
Where has Boeing said the delay is one year?


Boeing's statement to Reuters did not give a time-frame for the delay, just that it was based on the needs of current 777X family customers and that they remained committed to the model.
 
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 6:39 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Patrick - thanks for that estimate of 30-46. It will be interesting how much A and B will be willing to spend to get pieces of that market.


That is a very rough estimate based almost entirely out of the Australian and New Zealand markets. I just can't think of too many spots off the top of my head that you could justify beyond that. I'm sure they exist...

My numbers might be a tad on the lower side for the immediate term, but it'll still come down to economics. No one thought Wellington would end up on Singapore's radar, until it did... Assuming we eventually get renewable aviation fuel being used full-time instead of just select delivery flights, and assuming we can squeeze out another 20% efficiency from airframes and engines into the future, there may be as many as 40 viable 20+hour routes where you can fly 120-350 people direct economically. Given you want 2.2-2.5 planes per ULH route, that's up to 100 airframes, putting upgrades and replacements aside.
 
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 6:42 pm

Some big suits walking around doing a tour of the -9 assembly just now... wondering if that was Qantas and If not them we might see a 777x order soon
 
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 6:49 pm

Stitch wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Where has Boeing said the delay is one year?


Boeing's statement to Reuters did not give a time-frame for the delay, just that it was based on the needs of current 777X family customers and that they remained committed to the model.


That's what I thought.

It's frustrating when people claim facts from unverified sources.
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 6:58 pm

scbriml wrote:
Stitch wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Where has Boeing said the delay is one year?


Boeing's statement to Reuters did not give a time-frame for the delay, just that it was based on the needs of current 777X family customers and that they remained committed to the model.


That's what I thought.

It's frustrating when people claim facts from unverified sources.

I agree Boeing never associated any time line with their reports.

The other thread(s) presented the report from Leeham's "market intelligence" sources that suggest a 777-8X slip of "as much as two years" ( ref: https://leehamnews.com/2019/08/05/boein ... -for-777x/ ).

Maybe this is what got morphed in to a one year slip?
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:04 pm

RickNRoll wrote:

I would have thought to be meaningful a return flight should be operated. Crew will be expected to have a short rest on ground and return.
That can't happen. What is your definition of "short"?


Between 18-36 hours layover when someone could does not get two sleep opportunities.

astuteman wrote:
I have enjoyed the whole "788LR" conversation.


I haven’t. On the first page of the tread a moderator has included a statement from Alan Joyce saying that the 787 is ruled out. Any 787 discussion therefore is well off topic.

Revelation wrote:
What would be the impact of just going with the current contractual standards?

Are we at risk of having pilots accepting less safety in favor of getting desirable trips to choice destinations?

Can three flights give researchers a solid enough data set to make projections across dozens if not hundreds of potential pilots?


Under the Qantas long haul contract pilots get overtime I believe after 12 hours of flight time. With the introduction of the 787 they pushed that out I think to around 16-18 hours. The contracts also bases pay on the aircraft weight, however with the 787 they low balled the numbers. Basically the 787 wages are around 20% lower than what they should have been.

There are a number of models already developed for fatigue monitoring, this is not unique to aviation, road and sea transport also have long shifts. The unique aspects of aviation is the rapid changes to light as that impacts the chemicals produced within the brain, and that the shift work if erratic. Normal shift workers will do a number of days or weeks on days or nights. In aviation crews erratically alternate between day and night.
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:13 pm

Just a reminder to all to keep your posts on topic. As mentioned earlier in the thread Project Sunrise competition is between the A350 and 777X not the 787 so all discussion relating to the 787 (such as a 788LR) are off topic with the exception of the 3 planned research flights
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:19 pm

qf789 wrote:
Just a reminder to all to keep your posts on topic. As mentioned earlier in the thread Project Sunrise competition is between the A350 and 777X not the 787 so all discussion relating to the 787 (such as a 788LR) are off topic with the exception of the 3 planned research flights


That statement from Joyce was before Boeing came up with its "compelling option."

I think the discussion of the 787 has been helpful, and has established that there are two possibilities for Boeing's "compelling option":

1) Somehow make it worth QF's while to wait out the 778 delay before starting Project Sunrise service. The incentive here seems like it would be cheap prices on 787-9s or possibly even 777-9s for North America expansion short of JFK.

2) Somehow coax Boeing equipment other than the 777-8 into flying LHR with a reasonable payload. New-build 777-200LRs with all aux tanks could do it, but they're old tech. 787-9s are fuel volume limited even with increased MTOW, but could a 787 aux tank allow for the 787-9 to serve as a transitional option, with those 787s losing the aux tank and joining the regular 787 fleet once 778s are available?
 
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:28 pm

zeke wrote:
Under the Qantas long haul contract pilots get overtime I believe after 12 hours of flight time. With the introduction of the 787 they pushed that out I think to around 16-18 hours. The contracts also bases pay on the aircraft weight, however with the 787 they low balled the numbers. Basically the 787 wages are around 20% lower than what they should have been.

That must have been an interesting negotiation. Did they get anything back in return?

zeke wrote:
There are a number of models already developed for fatigue monitoring, this is not unique to aviation, road and sea transport also have long shifts. The unique aspects of aviation is the rapid changes to light as that impacts the chemicals produced within the brain, and that the shift work if erratic. Normal shift workers will do a number of days or weeks on days or nights. In aviation crews erratically alternate between day and night.

Very interesting. I have a nurse friend and even the non-erratic shift work is a challenge. Flying 20 hours at varying times crossing many time zones is much more of a challenge.
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:34 pm

seabosdca wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Just a reminder to all to keep your posts on topic. As mentioned earlier in the thread Project Sunrise competition is between the A350 and 777X not the 787 so all discussion relating to the 787 (such as a 788LR) are off topic with the exception of the 3 planned research flights


That statement from Joyce was before Boeing came up with its "compelling option."



No it wasn't, if you refer to the Bloomberg TV interview which was posted upthread, Joyce said today its between the A350 and 777X, its at the 7 minute mark. He also said the 787 did not have enough range to operate from the east coast of Australia to JFK and LHR. I understand and appreciate where you are coming from with the rest of your post however there are 2 posters who have tried to drag the thread off topic running their own agendas. I would suggest a separate thread be opened if you want to discuss the 787 in detail.
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:24 pm

qf789 wrote:
Just a reminder to all to keep your posts on topic. As mentioned earlier in the thread Project Sunrise competition is between the A350 and 777X not the 787 so all discussion relating to the 787 (such as a 788LR) are off topic with the exception of the 3 planned research flights


I am not sure it is so far off topic. If you think about it carefully, it is a very interesting situation.

If the 787-9 can do the mission with 50 passengers then it means a 787-8 fuselage for a 787-9 would have a much lower OEW and thus would carry many more than 50 passengers.

The 3 experiment flights may well be an eye opener for the guys at Qantas.

They are research flights, right? The research flight may result in something interesting.
 
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:26 pm

Well it's not like we can't discuss a 787-8LR in Tech Ops (I am sure we already have, to be honest).
 
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:51 pm

qf789 wrote:
Just a reminder to all to keep your posts on topic. As mentioned earlier in the thread Project Sunrise competition is between the A350 and 777X not the 787 so all discussion relating to the 787 (such as a 788LR) are off topic with the exception of the 3 planned research flights

My bad!

Having travelled to Australia twice from the uk in the last 4months the weird part is that the jet lag doesn’t seem to hit for about 4 days. Will the doing a single leg mean much if they aren’t able to do the return?

Fred


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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 9:32 pm

qf789 wrote:
No it wasn't, if you refer to the Bloomberg TV interview which was posted upthread, Joyce said today its between the A350 and 777X, its at the 7 minute mark.


What I found interesting in the interview he said “the A350 and 777-8X are capable of doing these routes with a commercial load to make the business case work.”

In some of the written statements they just said 777X, the comments by Mr Joyce to Bloomberg would suggest the 777-9 is ruled out as well.
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 9:40 pm

qf789 wrote:
seabosdca wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Just a reminder to all to keep your posts on topic. As mentioned earlier in the thread Project Sunrise competition is between the A350 and 777X not the 787 so all discussion relating to the 787 (such as a 788LR) are off topic with the exception of the 3 planned research flights


That statement from Joyce was before Boeing came up with its "compelling option."



No it wasn't, if you refer to the Bloomberg TV interview which was posted upthread, Joyce said today its between the A350 and 777X, its at the 7 minute mark. He also said the 787 did not have enough range to operate from the east coast of Australia to JFK and LHR. I understand and appreciate where you are coming from with the rest of your post however there are 2 posters who have tried to drag the thread off topic running their own agendas. I would suggest a separate thread be opened if you want to discuss the 787 in detail.


Joyce would be incorrect given what we know from ANZ since apparently the 787-10 is going to be flying AKL-EWR. GE has beaten the Trent 1000 TEN handily in engine efficiency. The ANZ (CEO?) said the Trent 1000 groundings were a minor factor compared to the efficiency GE could present. Given the 789's range on the Trent 1000 TEN topped out at 15,700km, BNE-JFK is easy enough already on the 789, especially with Qantas' super low density config. Heck Air Canada's 271-person 789 can fly 15,372km according to their IFEs, and those are among the oldest GEnx planes flying.

Now, I'm not attempting to start a war with a moderator on my first day, but I would contend it's perfectly fair for us to be having a discussion about whether Joyce finally made a mistake in the context of Project Sunrise and his stretch goals.
 
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 9:40 pm

flipdewaf wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Just a reminder to all to keep your posts on topic. As mentioned earlier in the thread Project Sunrise competition is between the A350 and 777X not the 787 so all discussion relating to the 787 (such as a 788LR) are off topic with the exception of the 3 planned research flights

My bad!

Having travelled to Australia twice from the uk in the last 4months the weird part is that the jet lag doesn’t seem to hit for about 4 days. Will the doing a single leg mean much if they aren’t able to do the return?

Fred


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



The crew i know usually stay close to their home time zones to reduce jet lag, ie they sleep during day and go out at night. Depends on the person though. This doesn’t work for everyone.
 
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 9:41 pm

seabosdca wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Just a reminder to all to keep your posts on topic. As mentioned earlier in the thread Project Sunrise competition is between the A350 and 777X not the 787 so all discussion relating to the 787 (such as a 788LR) are off topic with the exception of the 3 planned research flights


That statement from Joyce was before Boeing came up with its "compelling option."

I think the discussion of the 787 has been helpful, and has established that there are two possibilities for Boeing's "compelling option":

1) Somehow make it worth QF's while to wait out the 778 delay before starting Project Sunrise service. The incentive here seems like it would be cheap prices on 787-9s or possibly even 777-9s for North America expansion short of JFK.

2) Somehow coax Boeing equipment other than the 777-8 into flying LHR with a reasonable payload. New-build 777-200LRs with all aux tanks could do it, but they're old tech. 787-9s are fuel volume limited even with increased MTOW, but could a 787 aux tank allow for the 787-9 to serve as a transitional option, with those 787s losing the aux tank and joining the regular 787 fleet once 778s are available?

Boeing did also a “compelling” option to HA when they shifted from the A338 to the B789 and GE was also involved. Maybe is history repeating again and have Boeing and GE made an offer Qantas cannot refuse; an offer which also involves the 787.
 
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 10:10 pm

patrickjp93 wrote:
Joyce would be incorrect given what we know from ANZ since apparently the 787-10 is going to be flying AKL-EWR.


Sorry you are in absolute fantasy land to think a 787-10 can do AKL-EWR non stop with a commercial load.

Please have a look at the Bloomberg interview posted earlier in the tread, or their written statements. The 787 is not part of the solution for Sunrise.
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 11:14 pm

patrickjp93 wrote:
Joyce would be incorrect given what we know from ANZ


Most of this conversation has been very interesting, but thinking the CEO of the company which has been working closely on this project for 2 years with Boeing and Airbus and is about to make a decision on putting an order in the next few months isn't aware of the latest developments from Boeing, is absurd.

The 787 is not an option. The 777-9X cannot fly a commercial load between SYD and LHR. As AJ has said, this is between the A350 and the 777-8X. There's no point speculating what Boeing's "compelling option" in regards to the 777-8X delay is cause we'll probably never know, most likely it is some form of preferential treatment when the plane becomes available or other financial incentives. There is no "compelling" option that can suddenly make the 787-9 or the 777-9X fly 270 people from SYD to LHR with their baggage.
 
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 11:33 pm

zeke wrote:
qf789 wrote:
No it wasn't, if you refer to the Bloomberg TV interview which was posted upthread, Joyce said today its between the A350 and 777X, its at the 7 minute mark.


What I found interesting in the interview he said “the A350 and 777-8X are capable of doing these routes with a commercial load to make the business case work.”


I note that he was being specific with the Boeing variants in his talk, ruling out the 787-9 and contesting the 777-8X. But for the A350, he didn't mention it by variant...
 
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Aug 23, 2019 12:33 am

Expect QF alone to take 20+ of the type, with maybe 7 of those to be the ULR variant for LHR/NYC – or more if they launch Paris/Frankfurt from Sydney. SQ A359/359ULR fleet mix is a good example of how they will do it.
 
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Aug 23, 2019 1:08 am

So how important was this order to Boeing that it did not compel them to NOT DELAY the 777-8?
If the prestige is so great one would think that they would pony up, after all, the GE delay for the 777-9 is giving them additional time, more resources can be thrown at the 8.
 
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Aug 23, 2019 1:30 am

zeke wrote:
patrickjp93 wrote:
Joyce would be incorrect given what we know from ANZ since apparently the 787-10 is going to be flying AKL-EWR.


Sorry you are in absolute fantasy land to think a 787-10 can do AKL-EWR non stop with a commercial load.

Please have a look at the Bloomberg interview posted earlier in the tread, or their written statements. The 787 is not part of the solution for Sunrise.


https://liveandletsfly.boardingarea.com ... -york-787/

And there are 9 more I can pull up if you like. ANZ's plans apparently put the 787-10 en route to EWR.
 
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Aug 23, 2019 1:53 am

Maybe the compelling offer is a 747-8ER :stirthepot:
 
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Aug 23, 2019 2:05 am

So there are fantasists on aviation news sites as well as a.net. :roll:

Luxon is now on the record as saying the 78Js will mostly be used on Asian routes. Just sayin'...
 
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Aug 23, 2019 2:22 am

patrickjp93 wrote:

https://liveandletsfly.boardingarea.com ... -york-787/

And there are 9 more I can pull up if you like. ANZ's plans apparently put the 787-10 en route to EWR.


For a start, NZ has not ordered the 787-10, its just a LOI. They need shareholder approval in Sept, after the results this week that is not guaranteed. NZ may look at a reduced capacity 787-9 to do non-stop. The only way a 787-10 could be used is for a direct flight (ie means it stops in LAX or SFO) to EWR or LHR. Direct is not the same as non-stop. QF offer direct flights from MEL/SYD to LHR (MEL-PER-LHR, SYD-SIN-LHR), they stop enroute. Sunrise is about non-stop flights.

This has absolutely nothing to do with the QF sunrise thread, can you take the inaccurate NZ thread pollution out of this QF sunrise thread.
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Aug 23, 2019 3:03 am

My very strong recollection of the NZ announcement is that a reduced-capacity 789 would be the aircraft for AKL-EWR, and that the 78J was capable of performing all (most?) of the carrier's 77E routes. There were positively no statements or even suggestions that the 78J would be used on AKL-EWR. In both cases there were hints/rumours of a MTOW bump and the suggestion that the fuel economy of the GE engine combined would make the 78J the best 77E replacement for NZ. There's no one at NZ or indeed anywhere else on the planet that is suggesting the 78J has the legs that patrickjp93 keeps quoting.
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Aug 23, 2019 4:18 am

ewt340 wrote:
I doubt they could use B787-9 for the actual project sunrise.

If they can't get at least 150 passengers on board for the flight, there is no way it would be profitable.


Depend if they are planning to have Y onboard for there non-stop SYD-JFK flights.

An 789 that was just J/PE probably could do it, with an nice profit if there is demand.

For the cheaper Y passengers there is always the less premium service with stops...
 
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Aug 23, 2019 4:36 am

tealnz wrote:
Expect QF alone to take 20+ of the type, with maybe 7 of those to be the ULR variant for LHR/NYC – or more if they launch Paris/Frankfurt from Sydney. SQ A359/359ULR fleet mix is a good example of how they will do it.

I would GUESS minimum of 10 for SYD/MEL - LHR/JFK given slot times at LHR & maintance requirements. And probably 10 options for Asia, Africa & South America.

Gemuser
 
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Aug 23, 2019 4:49 am

Gemuser wrote:
would GUESS minimum of 10 for SYD/MEL - LHR/JFK given slot times at LHR & maintance requirements. And probably 10 options for Asia, Africa & South America.
Gemuser


It may even initially just be single digit to start with, taking a conservative approach with options that could be exercised. A lot of things need to fall into place for this to be sustainable, it is not just the technical aspects of the aircraft that need to work.

Almost every time I hear Alan Joyce talk about Sunrise, almost without fail I hear him say business case. QF could have used the 77L for some time now to operate the route (and more recently the A350-900ULR), my personal guess is the business case for either aircraft did not stack up. IMHO if you can work out what the revenue potential vs costs of the 77L over the routes, one would need to see a improvement on both fronts for the project to get the green light.
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Aug 23, 2019 5:15 am

I'd like to point out one thing - compelling option could be anything but a replacement plane to do the job. It could be a plane extra price/plan if you start 12 months later, or leasing on 0% from Boeing's partner ("we'll get you the planes on agreed price/120, 10 year plan, no extra payments"). One can imagine any option, including LoI on 9 with compelling prices. Everything is possible, except for probably any B replacement able to do 200+ pax on route (based on previous discussion).

Cheers,
Adam
 
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Aug 23, 2019 5:41 am

zeke wrote:
Gemuser wrote:
would GUESS minimum of 10 for SYD/MEL - LHR/JFK given slot times at LHR & maintance requirements. And probably 10 options for Asia, Africa & South America.
Gemuser


It may even initially just be single digit to start with, taking a conservative approach with options that could be exercised. A lot of things need to fall into place for this to be sustainable, it is not just the technical aspects of the aircraft that need to work.

Almost every time I hear Alan Joyce talk about Sunrise, almost without fail I hear him say business case. QF could have used the 77L for some time now to operate the route (and more recently the A350-900ULR), my personal guess is the business case for either aircraft did not stack up. IMHO if you can work out what the revenue potential vs costs of the 77L over the routes, one would need to see a improvement on both fronts for the project to get the green light.


That's kind of skating on a razor for me if the 77L couldn't even do it economically. I eagerly await this flight though.
oh boy, here we go!!!
 
aryonoco
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Aug 23, 2019 6:02 am

DavidByrne wrote:
There's no one at NZ or indeed anywhere else on the planet that is suggesting the 78J has the legs that patrickjp93 keeps quoting.


There has been David, quite a few posters here think that NZ has got a 78J-SuperDooper coming that will allow NZ to carry 400 pax AKL-EWR non-stop.

Though now I think of it, I think all of the them might be the same poster as patrickjp93 but with other usernames.
 
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Aug 23, 2019 6:24 am

Gemuser wrote:
tealnz wrote:
Expect QF alone to take 20+ of the type, with maybe 7 of those to be the ULR variant for LHR/NYC – or more if they launch Paris/Frankfurt from Sydney. SQ A359/359ULR fleet mix is a good example of how they will do it.

I would GUESS minimum of 10 for SYD/MEL - LHR/JFK given slot times at LHR & maintance requirements. And probably 10 options for Asia, Africa & South America.

Gemuser


What other viable destinations, outside of Europe and eastern USA, need the range of the Sunrise jet? GIG maybe? I know you don't have to fly an aircraft to its maximum range, but I would think the 789 would do as good a job on the routes it can reach, without the capital outlay.
 
marcelh
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Aug 23, 2019 6:45 am

DavidByrne wrote:
My very strong recollection of the NZ announcement is that a reduced-capacity 789 would be the aircraft for AKL-EWR, and that the 78J was capable of performing all (most?) of the carrier's 77E routes. There were positively no statements or even suggestions that the 78J would be used on AKL-EWR. In both cases there were hints/rumours of a MTOW bump and the suggestion that the fuel economy of the GE engine combined would make the 78J the best 77E replacement for NZ. There's no one at NZ or indeed anywhere else on the planet that is suggesting the 78J has the legs that patrickjp93 keeps quoting.

At least someone knows the facts, thank you
 
tullamarine
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Aug 23, 2019 7:32 am

Pellegrine wrote:
zeke wrote:
Gemuser wrote:
would GUESS minimum of 10 for SYD/MEL - LHR/JFK given slot times at LHR & maintance requirements. And probably 10 options for Asia, Africa & South America.
Gemuser


It may even initially just be single digit to start with, taking a conservative approach with options that could be exercised. A lot of things need to fall into place for this to be sustainable, it is not just the technical aspects of the aircraft that need to work.

Almost every time I hear Alan Joyce talk about Sunrise, almost without fail I hear him say business case. QF could have used the 77L for some time now to operate the route (and more recently the A350-900ULR), my personal guess is the business case for either aircraft did not stack up. IMHO if you can work out what the revenue potential vs costs of the 77L over the routes, one would need to see a improvement on both fronts for the project to get the green light.


That's kind of skating on a razor for me if the 77L couldn't even do it economically. I eagerly await this flight though.

You're right, the economics are extremely marginal. QF have obviously calculated that they need a certain volume before it can even approach profitability which is why the A359ULR was discounted; thoughts of a 788ER are obviously even more so.

QF will need to operate a premium heavy format even though it may be nominally 4 class. For MEL-LHR to be a goer, the existing QF9 via PER will need to find its premium pax elsewhere as QF will want all the premium pax out of MEL on the non-stop service. If PER-LHR can't fill the 789's J class by itself, maybe BNE-PER-LHR is an option though I can't see this route being any quicker than going via SIN or DXB.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
ozglobal
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Aug 23, 2019 7:49 am

Nothing to see here, folks. Just more attention seeking from the QF marketing machine. SQ and others have been operating 19+ hr flights for many years. If QF needs to 'study' the effects of such long flights there should be plenty of real life data. No, this is just buzz inducing attention seeking. So is the project. There will only ever be about 12 aircraft involved in the SYD-LHR or JFK services. Peanuts to Airbus and Boeing. What is more, I would not be surprised if the project quietly dies as there is likely to be no business case for the major premium on tickets they will have to demand. How about the promised services to Paris and other European ports?? Quietly died. Now Joyce is talking about 'study modules', ' sleeper births below deck', 'exercise areas', etc. All BS as usual. So much noise without substance
When all's said and done, there'll be more said than done.
 
patrickjp93
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Aug 23, 2019 10:02 am

ozglobal wrote:
Nothing to see here, folks. Just more attention seeking from the QF marketing machine. SQ and others have been operating 19+ hr flights for many years. If QF needs to 'study' the effects of such long flights there should be plenty of real life data. No, this is just buzz inducing attention seeking. So is the project. There will only ever be about 12 aircraft involved in the SYD-LHR or JFK services. Peanuts to Airbus and Boeing. What is more, I would not be surprised if the project quietly dies as there is likely to be no business case for the major premium on tickets they will have to demand. How about the promised services to Paris and other European ports?? Quietly died. Now Joyce is talking about 'study modules', ' sleeper births below deck', 'exercise areas', etc. All BS as usual. So much noise without substance


Aussie aviation law DOES require studies and data to back up any proposed changes to an airline's fatigue-management processes for long-haul flight, so it's not all bravado. 21-hour flights are very different from 17.5-hour flights.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:55 am

Exactly, as I pointed out upthread SYD-LHR is 1000 miles longer than SIN-EWR. Oversimplying things, that's basically 1.5-2 hours more flying time. This really is pushing the boundaries.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
tealnz
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Aug 23, 2019 12:27 pm

zeke wrote:
... A lot of things need to fall into place for this to be sustainable, it is not just the technical aspects of the aircraft that need to work.

Almost every time I hear Alan Joyce talk about Sunrise, almost without fail I hear him say business case. QF could have used the 77L for some time now to operate the route (and more recently the A350-900ULR), my personal guess is the business case for either aircraft did not stack up. IMHO if you can work out what the revenue potential vs costs of the 77L over the routes, one would need to see a improvement on both fronts for the project to get the green light.

Exactly :checkmark:
 
tealnz
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Aug 23, 2019 12:40 pm

benjjk wrote:
What other viable destinations, outside of Europe and eastern USA, need the range of the Sunrise jet? GIG maybe? I know you don't have to fly an aircraft to its maximum range, but I would think the 789 would do as good a job on the routes it can reach, without the capital outlay.

We have been over this before. This isn't just about London. It is about a push by QF to replace one-stop long services with non-stop point to point as the basis for its long-haul strategy. We are talking about a fleet which in time is likely to have 20+ frames.

And QF want a common type for that fleet. (Though we can guess they will have a ULR sub-fleet for the extreme range routes – at least SYD/MEL to LHR and NYC). Assuming they choose the A35K, as now seems likely, they will ultimately want to use the same type for SYD/MEL/BNE to a long list of destinations in the Americas, Europe and Asia – pax-only for the more demanding destinations, regular payloads for the shorter routes.

The 789 will not/not work as a basis for the Sunrise fleet. PER-LHR and BNE-ORD tell you what the limits of the airframe are. The reality is that QF want an aircraft that can do ORD and LHR non-stop from SYD. They will find other good uses for the 789s.
 
32andBelow
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Aug 23, 2019 12:59 pm

So the 40 people can spread out and lay down in entire rows lol
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Aug 23, 2019 2:18 pm

tealnz wrote:
benjjk wrote:
What other viable destinations, outside of Europe and eastern USA, need the range of the Sunrise jet? GIG maybe? I know you don't have to fly an aircraft to its maximum range, but I would think the 789 would do as good a job on the routes it can reach, without the capital outlay.

We have been over this before. This isn't just about London. It is about a push by QF to replace one-stop long services with non-stop point to point as the basis for its long-haul strategy. We are talking about a fleet which in time is likely to have 20+ frames.

And QF want a common type for that fleet. (Though we can guess they will have a ULR sub-fleet for the extreme range routes – at least SYD/MEL to LHR and NYC). Assuming they choose the A35K, as now seems likely, they will ultimately want to use the same type for SYD/MEL/BNE to a long list of destinations in the Americas, Europe and Asia – pax-only for the more demanding destinations, regular payloads for the shorter routes.

The 789 will not/not work as a basis for the Sunrise fleet. PER-LHR and BNE-ORD tell you what the limits of the airframe are. The reality is that QF want an aircraft that can do ORD and LHR non-stop from SYD. They will find other good uses for the 789s.

I think more than the sunrise fleet will be common. Why QF will order a dedicated fleet, I expect their whole large aircraft fleet renewal is under discussion.

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Jefford717
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Aug 23, 2019 3:31 pm

To be honest, I don’t know what QF is trying to achieve with this research test flight aside from publicity. SQ has been flying a 19-hour flight (SIN-EWR-SIN) for many years now with A345 with 8000 ft cabin elevation and now the A350 with 6000 ft cabin elevation.
 
AeroplaneFreak
Posts: 255
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Aug 23, 2019 3:37 pm

ozglobal wrote:
Nothing to see here, folks. Just more attention seeking from the QF marketing machine. SQ and others have been operating 19+ hr flights for many years. If QF needs to 'study' the effects of such long flights there should be plenty of real life data. No, this is just buzz inducing attention seeking. So is the project. There will only ever be about 12 aircraft involved in the SYD-LHR or JFK services. Peanuts to Airbus and Boeing. What is more, I would not be surprised if the project quietly dies as there is likely to be no business case for the major premium on tickets they will have to demand. How about the promised services to Paris and other European ports?? Quietly died. Now Joyce is talking about 'study modules', ' sleeper births below deck', 'exercise areas', etc. All BS as usual. So much noise without substance


Jefford717 wrote:
To be honest, I don’t know what QF is trying to achieve with this research test flight aside from publicity. SQ has been flying a 19-hour flight (SIN-EWR-SIN) for many years now with A345 with 8000 ft cabin elevation and now the A350 with 6000 ft cabin elevation.


As mentioned in posts above CASA requires a study and data shown for any changes to an airlines fatigue management program. I am sure publicity is an added bonus but in Australia this is the law.
 
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SQ22
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Aug 23, 2019 5:02 pm

qf789 wrote:
Just a reminder to all to keep your posts on topic. As mentioned earlier in the thread Project Sunrise competition is between the A350 and 777X not the 787 so all discussion relating to the 787 (such as a 788LR) are off topic with the exception of the 3 planned research flights


A friendly reminder to stay on topic, thanks.
 
VV
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Aug 23, 2019 5:34 pm

SQ22 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Just a reminder to all to keep your posts on topic. As mentioned earlier in the thread Project Sunrise competition is between the A350 and 777X not the 787 so all discussion relating to the 787 (such as a 788LR) are off topic with the exception of the 3 planned research flights


A friendly reminder to stay on topic, thanks.


So, Qantas will run an experiment to fly SYD-LHR with a 787-9 carrying 50 passengers.

Some people think that a 787-8 fuselage on a 787-9 would then allow to carry more passengers instead of carrying unused structure weight. I think it is very relevant to the discussion.

Obviously, a little bit of extra fuel in aux tanks can give some more flexibility.

Why would it be off topic?
 
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SQ22
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Aug 23, 2019 5:57 pm

VV wrote:
SQ22 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Just a reminder to all to keep your posts on topic. As mentioned earlier in the thread Project Sunrise competition is between the A350 and 777X not the 787 so all discussion relating to the 787 (such as a 788LR) are off topic with the exception of the 3 planned research flights


A friendly reminder to stay on topic, thanks.


So, Qantas will run an experiment to fly SYD-LHR with a 787-9 carrying 50 passengers.

Some people think that a 787-8 fuselage on a 787-9 would then allow to carry more passengers instead of carrying unused structure weight. I think it is very relevant to the discussion.

Obviously, a little bit of extra fuel in aux tanks can give some more flexibility.

Why would it be off topic?


Please look at the thread title and the post I was quoting, for the time being 787 is out of the competion. By the way, there is a thread in Tech Ops about 787 range increases which can be found here:

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=1411693

Feel free to continue 787 discussion in this thread.
 
mig17
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Aug 23, 2019 6:00 pm

VV wrote:
SQ22 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Just a reminder to all to keep your posts on topic. As mentioned earlier in the thread Project Sunrise competition is between the A350 and 777X not the 787 so all discussion relating to the 787 (such as a 788LR) are off topic with the exception of the 3 planned research flights


A friendly reminder to stay on topic, thanks.


So, Qantas will run an experiment to fly SYD-LHR with a 787-9 carrying 50 passengers.

Some people think that a 787-8 fuselage on a 787-9 would then allow to carry more passengers instead of carrying unused structure weight. I think it is very relevant to the discussion.

Obviously, a little bit of extra fuel in aux tanks can give some more flexibility.

Why would it be off topic?

Because it is a new developpement, not avaible before what 5 years and the cost for a few plane would be huge while Boeing is focused on saling larger version of the 787 ...
727 AT, 737 UX/SK/TO/SS, 747 UT/AF/SQ/BA/SS, 767 UA, 777 AF, A300 IW/TG, A310 EK, A318/19/20/21 AF/U2/VY, A332/3 EK/QR/TX, A343 AF, A388 AF, E145/170/190 A5/WF, Q400 WF, ATR 72 A5/TX, CRJ100/700/1000 A5, C-150/172, PC-6.
 
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ClipperYankee
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Aug 23, 2019 6:12 pm

I don't know much about this website and if there is anything to it but here is their story on Boeing's offer:

http://www.airlineratings.com/news/boei ... t-sunrise/

if that doesn't work then copy and paste this link:

https://www.airlineratings.com/news/boe ... t-sunrise/
707/717/727/737-100,200,300,400,500,700,800/747-200,300,400/757-200,300/767-300,400
772/788&9/DC3/DC6/DC8/DC9/DC10/MD80s/L1011/A300/A319,320,321/A332&3/A343/A359/A388/
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