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Pcoder
Posts: 132
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:48 am

CraigAnderson wrote:
Also I have heard that among the 40 pax on the 'research flights' there will be some media, probably will be the usual suspects. A shame QF doesn't hold a contest to select a handful of real people, aka normal passengers.


A real test would be 3 passengers in economy right next to each other. If they don't test this, I'll consider this a bit of a publicity stunt.
 
Checklist787
Posts: 218
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:39 am

dare100em wrote:
scbriml wrote:
VV wrote:
Let's see it the simple way.

There is absolutely no mean the total volume available for fuel in the wing on the A350-1000 can be bigger than that of the A350-900. It is just physics. Both aircraft have the same wing planform.

Anyone who dares to say something otherwise is absolutely wrong.


Please explain how they can have the same wing planform when the -1000’s wing is 22sqm larger in area but with the same span.

What the heck, indeed.


It is indeed the same wing from structural point of view. The -1000 wing is twisted with an extended wing trailing edge:

https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1358735

However, the core wing and volume is Identical to the -900 as is the tanking volume.


Totally agree.

And that does not mean MORE fuel on the A350-1000. However, in my opinion, the elongated trailing edge compensates for an aerodynamic deficiency since the A350-1000 is (slightly too?) streched with larger engines IMHO :roll:
Last edited by Checklist787 on Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:50 am, edited 4 times in total.
 
tullamarine
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:43 am

Pcoder wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
Also I have heard that among the 40 pax on the 'research flights' there will be some media, probably will be the usual suspects. A shame QF doesn't hold a contest to select a handful of real people, aka normal passengers.


A real test would be 3 passengers in economy right next to each other. If they don't test this, I'll consider this a bit of a publicity stunt.

Of course it is a stunt; there is nothing scientific about this at all. 3 flights is nowhere near enough to create a meaningful dataset, the flights are only uni-directional, the flight crews won't be backing up after a 2 or 3 day rest to do another long return sector, the aircraft are only 20% occupied. It is PR which Qantas are very good at; they will have no difficulty in getting the "usual suspects" to studiously report on the flights and the "important discoveries" made. I doubt there will be much mention of the complimentary J class return fares and hospitality provided in the coverage however.
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moa999
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:58 am

It's only a couple of hours longer than the existing 787 flights so pax experience is fairly easy to judge (though seats will be a little wider).

It's the crew fatigue stuff they need to demonstrate to CASA, but again they have lots of data from the 787s.

It's undoubtedly more for publicity/media.. but a small additional cost compared to a flight from Everett, and I suspect we'll offset by the free publicity
 
flipdewaf
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Wed Aug 28, 2019 6:10 am

Checklist787 wrote:
dare100em wrote:
scbriml wrote:

Please explain how they can have the same wing planform when the -1000’s wing is 22sqm larger in area but with the same span.

What the heck, indeed.


It is indeed the same wing from structural point of view. The -1000 wing is twisted with an extended wing trailing edge:

https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1358735

However, the core wing and volume is Identical to the -900 as is the tanking volume.


Totally agree.

And that does not mean MORE fuel on the A350-1000. However, in my opinion, the elongated trailing edge compensates for an aerodynamic deficiency since the A350-1000 is (slightly too?) streched with larger engines IMHO :roll:


Or... the trailing edge extension gives a lower t/c meaning it has a higher Mcrit and can get to higher altitudes at the higher weights of the -1000. It has a 4% (?) increase in area over the A359 but and achieves similar flight levels with more than 4% increase in mass.

Fred


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Scotron12
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Wed Aug 28, 2019 6:14 am

It's been a publicity stunt right from the 1st announcement they were looking to start non stop flights SYD-LHR.

It's the last frontier in aviation that has yet to be conquered...so they're doing it with a little bit of showbiz.
 
Gemuser
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Wed Aug 28, 2019 6:48 am

grbauc wrote:
[Yea we have ULH flights and In J class its just fine. Y+ should be the min seating IMOP on any flights over 10 hr. I don't know what they plan on learning but there are enough ULH flights already that pretty much have nothing special going on. I can wish they would add some stuff. Don't see what they need to learn, other then publicity i'd be curious to learn what they are really after? Maybe diligence for the unions on working conditions.

READ the previous posts. The answer is there. They are mainly interested in the fatigue effects on tech crew because to extend crew duty cycles beyond they have to provide evidance to show it is safe. They are required to presnt this evidance to CASA to approve the duty cycles required for crew to operate these flights, which is why it is being carried out by two of the top universities in Australia.

Beyond that once they have CASA approval they can then entre talks with the pilots union to amend their enterprise barging agreement to allow the flights.

While the publicity value has been not overlooked, the main reason is to able to present evidance for regulatory approval, in accordance with Australian law.

Gemuser
 
tullamarine
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Wed Aug 28, 2019 7:40 am

Gemuser wrote:
grbauc wrote:
[Yea we have ULH flights and In J class its just fine. Y+ should be the min seating IMOP on any flights over 10 hr. I don't know what they plan on learning but there are enough ULH flights already that pretty much have nothing special going on. I can wish they would add some stuff. Don't see what they need to learn, other then publicity i'd be curious to learn what they are really after? Maybe diligence for the unions on working conditions.

READ the previous posts. The answer is there. They are mainly interested in the fatigue effects on tech crew because to extend crew duty cycles beyond they have to provide evidance to show it is safe. They are required to presnt this evidance to CASA to approve the duty cycles required for crew to operate these flights, which is why it is being carried out by two of the top universities in Australia.

Beyond that once they have CASA approval they can then entre talks with the pilots union to amend their enterprise barging agreement to allow the flights.

While the publicity value has been not overlooked, the main reason is to able to present evidance for regulatory approval, in accordance with Australian law.

Gemuser

Maybe they are required to provide info to CASA but 3 flights are nowhere near enough to be meaningful in any sense. If CASA accepts such a useless dataset, you'd have to wonder why they bother and the whole thing is a rubber-stamp. Realistically, you probably need 30 flights in both directions with rest times matching those proposed for the crews on these ULH sectors to get any sort of useful data. 3 flights is basically as useful as tossing a coin 3 times and saying whatever gets the majority is right.
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flipdewaf
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Wed Aug 28, 2019 7:58 am

tullamarine wrote:
Gemuser wrote:
grbauc wrote:
[Yea we have ULH flights and In J class its just fine. Y+ should be the min seating IMOP on any flights over 10 hr. I don't know what they plan on learning but there are enough ULH flights already that pretty much have nothing special going on. I can wish they would add some stuff. Don't see what they need to learn, other then publicity i'd be curious to learn what they are really after? Maybe diligence for the unions on working conditions.

READ the previous posts. The answer is there. They are mainly interested in the fatigue effects on tech crew because to extend crew duty cycles beyond they have to provide evidance to show it is safe. They are required to presnt this evidance to CASA to approve the duty cycles required for crew to operate these flights, which is why it is being carried out by two of the top universities in Australia.

Beyond that once they have CASA approval they can then entre talks with the pilots union to amend their enterprise barging agreement to allow the flights.

While the publicity value has been not overlooked, the main reason is to able to present evidance for regulatory approval, in accordance with Australian law.

Gemuser

Maybe they are required to provide info to CASA but 3 flights are nowhere near enough to be meaningful in any sense. If CASA accepts such a useless dataset, you'd have to wonder why they bother and the whole thing is a rubber-stamp. Realistically, you probably need 30 flights in both directions with rest times matching those proposed for the crews on these ULH sectors to get any sort of useful data. 3 flights is basically as useful as tossing a coin 3 times and saying whatever gets the majority is right.

They may not be gathering raw data but verifying predictive models and ensuring their validity over the longer sectors.

Fred


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Eyad89
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:07 am

I agree with those who think of this as a marketing tactic. I got this conclusion based on the fact that it will only carry journalists.

All those 40 journalists will eventually write articles or release videos on how this non-stop flight is much better than a stop at DXB or SIN.

QF probably wants to break the psychological barrier of spending more than 20 hours on a plane that some people might have.
 
AngMoh
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:15 am

flipdewaf wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
Gemuser wrote:
READ the previous posts. The answer is there. They are mainly interested in the fatigue effects on tech crew because to extend crew duty cycles beyond they have to provide evidance to show it is safe. They are required to presnt this evidance to CASA to approve the duty cycles required for crew to operate these flights, which is why it is being carried out by two of the top universities in Australia.

Beyond that once they have CASA approval they can then entre talks with the pilots union to amend their enterprise barging agreement to allow the flights.

While the publicity value has been not overlooked, the main reason is to able to present evidance for regulatory approval, in accordance with Australian law.

Gemuser

Maybe they are required to provide info to CASA but 3 flights are nowhere near enough to be meaningful in any sense. If CASA accepts such a useless dataset, you'd have to wonder why they bother and the whole thing is a rubber-stamp. Realistically, you probably need 30 flights in both directions with rest times matching those proposed for the crews on these ULH sectors to get any sort of useful data. 3 flights is basically as useful as tossing a coin 3 times and saying whatever gets the majority is right.

They may not be gathering raw data but verifying predictive models and ensuring their validity over the longer sectors.

Fred


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SQ had to do something similar in 2003/2004 before they launched their EWR and LAX flights. I asked once the cabin crew about the EWR flight and they mentioned it is much tougher than a 13hr flight to Europe. Even as a passenger, the last few hours seem to pass incredibly slowly.
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Legs
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Wed Aug 28, 2019 9:08 am

tullamarine wrote:
Maybe they are required to provide info to CASA but 3 flights are nowhere near enough to be meaningful in any sense. If CASA accepts such a useless dataset, you'd have to wonder why they bother and the whole thing is a rubber-stamp. Realistically, you probably need 30 flights in both directions with rest times matching those proposed for the crews on these ULH sectors to get any sort of useful data. 3 flights is basically as useful as tossing a coin 3 times and saying whatever gets the majority is right.


CASA is also probably being pretty realistic about the costs involved in staging these non-revenue flights, and have approved the plan after consulting with QANTAS and the two major universities involved.
 
FL420FT
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Wed Aug 28, 2019 10:31 am

Pcoder wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
Also I have heard that among the 40 pax on the 'research flights' there will be some media, probably will be the usual suspects. A shame QF doesn't hold a contest to select a handful of real people, aka normal passengers.


A real test would be 3 passengers in economy right next to each other. If they don't test this, I'll consider this a bit of a publicity stunt.


I would up the 3 passengers in economy up to six, maybe 9 to allow any possible data including reclining seats in the Y cabin
 
EBiafore99
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Wed Aug 28, 2019 10:35 am

Gemuser wrote:
grbauc wrote:
[Yea we have ULH flights and In J class its just fine. Y+ should be the min seating IMOP on any flights over 10 hr. I don't know what they plan on learning but there are enough ULH flights already that pretty much have nothing special going on. I can wish they would add some stuff. Don't see what they need to learn, other then publicity i'd be curious to learn what they are really after? Maybe diligence for the unions on working conditions.

READ the previous posts. The answer is there. They are mainly interested in the fatigue effects on tech crew because to extend crew duty cycles beyond they have to provide evidance to show it is safe. They are required to presnt this evidance to CASA to approve the duty cycles required for crew to operate these flights, which is why it is being carried out by two of the top universities in Australia.

Beyond that once they have CASA approval they can then entre talks with the pilots union to amend their enterprise barging agreement to allow the flights.

While the publicity value has been not overlooked, the main reason is to able to present evidance for regulatory approval, in accordance with Australian law.

Gemuser


This post was a reply to my post about the testing. The attached article states the testing is being to see the effects on passengers and crew:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/a ... 081658001/

I (and I believe the poster) were not questioning the testing on the crew. That IS important. The part I am cynical about is the "testing" on passengers. IMO, at least for Y passengers, it's not about comfort, it's more about "can they tolerate it in the same Y seats we use on other international flights".
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Wed Aug 28, 2019 10:52 am

patrickjp93 wrote:
Most Aussies continue on from LAX and SFO. They don't stop there.


That's simply not true. Both LAX and SFO are majority O/D markets from Australia. I can't remember the exact numbers, but just three markets (LAX, SFO, NYC) account for something like 75% of traffic between USA and Australia. DFW and IAH (and ORD) serve an important role as the remaining traffic is much more dispersed, but there will continue to be large aircraft on LAX-SYD long after a non-stop JFK flight is launched.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
Sparker
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:29 am

flipdewaf wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
Gemuser wrote:
READ the previous posts. The answer is there. They are mainly interested in the fatigue effects on tech crew because to extend crew duty cycles beyond they have to provide evidance to show it is safe. They are required to presnt this evidance to CASA to approve the duty cycles required for crew to operate these flights, which is why it is being carried out by two of the top universities in Australia.

Beyond that once they have CASA approval they can then entre talks with the pilots union to amend their enterprise barging agreement to allow the flights.

While the publicity value has been not overlooked, the main reason is to able to present evidance for regulatory approval, in accordance with Australian law.

Gemuser

Maybe they are required to provide info to CASA but 3 flights are nowhere near enough to be meaningful in any sense. If CASA accepts such a useless dataset, you'd have to wonder why they bother and the whole thing is a rubber-stamp. Realistically, you probably need 30 flights in both directions with rest times matching those proposed for the crews on these ULH sectors to get any sort of useful data. 3 flights is basically as useful as tossing a coin 3 times and saying whatever gets the majority is right.

They may not be gathering raw data but verifying predictive models and ensuring their validity over the longer sectors.

Fred


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This is exactly right, I think. Fatigue science is a well-understood field, where it is entirely possible to develop robust predictive models that have been validated by years of operational practice. Qantas will have developed an updated model that accounts for the longer duty time as well as any other changes they are considering to reduce fatigue. CASA will be reviewing the data from these flights to determine whether it supports Qantas' model, or whether the crew are more fatigued and less safe than Qantas predicts.

Like any fatigue safety management system, it'll be subject to ongoing review.

The idea that predictive models aren't valid strikes me as a bit odd. We don't require airlines to fly hundreds of empty, long distance over-water flights to get EDTO approval. And we don't require airframers and engine manufacturers to have their equipment run on empty services for 25 years, to prove it can last for its design-life.
 
patrickjp93
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:53 am

moa999 wrote:
It's only a couple of hours longer than the existing 787 flights so pax experience is fairly easy to judge (though seats will be a little wider).

It's the crew fatigue stuff they need to demonstrate to CASA, but again they have lots of data from the 787s.

It's undoubtedly more for publicity/media.. but a small additional cost compared to a flight from Everett, and I suspect we'll offset by the free publicity


5 hours' difference is almost 30%. That's not insignificant. At the worst time of the year JFK-MEL will be 21 hours 20 minutes, vs. the usual 16:30 for LHR-PER.
 
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:03 pm

Eyad89 wrote:
I agree with those who think of this as a marketing tactic. I got this conclusion based on the fact that it will only carry journalists.


What the???? Where on earth did you pull this so-called 'fact' from? QF has said it will be mainly staff and some stakeholders like the researchers. Get your own 'facts' straight.

"Each flight will have a maximum of 40 people, including crew" and "People in the cabin – mostly Qantas employees"

Source: https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... australia/
 
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par13del
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:13 pm

tullamarine wrote:
Realistically, you probably need 30 flights in both directions with rest times matching those proposed for the crews on these ULH sectors to get any sort of useful data.

So a question, would the regulators allow them to run a few charters say during the off season, two flights per week selling a limited number of seats to allow the flight with no diversions, are there any special requirements for charters versus normal commercial flights?
I am thinking that would allow them to get the data they require while gaining some revenue.
 
9Patch
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Wed Aug 28, 2019 3:44 pm

Pcoder wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
Also I have heard that among the 40 pax on the 'research flights' there will be some media, probably will be the usual suspects. A shame QF doesn't hold a contest to select a handful of real people, aka normal passengers.


A real test would be 3 passengers in economy right next to each other. If they don't test this, I'll consider this a bit of a publicity stunt.

And at lest one of those passengers must be overweight.
Oh, and a non-stop crying baby near you and a kid kicking the back of your seat.
 
patrickjp93
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Wed Aug 28, 2019 3:55 pm

9Patch wrote:
Pcoder wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
Also I have heard that among the 40 pax on the 'research flights' there will be some media, probably will be the usual suspects. A shame QF doesn't hold a contest to select a handful of real people, aka normal passengers.


A real test would be 3 passengers in economy right next to each other. If they don't test this, I'll consider this a bit of a publicity stunt.

And at lest one of those passengers must be overweight.
Oh, and a non-stop crying baby near you and a kid kicking the back of your seat.


To be fair you don't need overweight passengers to be rubbing shoulders with your neighbor when trying to sleep. Qantas' 17.2" seats are built more for Asian travelers where they come with thinner skeletal frames to begin with.
 
grbauc
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:45 pm

DavidByrne wrote:
grbauc wrote:
Y+ should be the min seating IMOP on any flights over 10 hr.

Sorry, but that sounds very elitist - what's your rationale? Do you worry that poor Y passengers may not be able to endure 10h plus flights? Here in NZ, almost anywhere long-haul is 10hr plus, and we're well-used to sitting on the same aircraft for 24h plus if we're travelling to London. Should we all just stay home unless we can afford a premium fare? Or just perhaps, we could let the market decide?



Lol Well im use crammed crowded Y class seats here on Domestic runs or even many international flights. First time iv'e ever been called elites. I just believe the current pitch trends of 29-31" is way to crowded. 32"-33" should be the international average imop.

The US average 30" 31"
NZ average 32"33"

Elitist lol thank you I enjoyed that no offence taken or meant.
 
strfyr51
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Thu Aug 29, 2019 3:50 am

Qatara340 wrote:
This is bullocks.

Qantas knows what goes on on 20 hour flights. They already operate 17-18 hour flights Perth to London, and Singapore Airlines 19 hours to New York, and several 16 Hour flights.

What's going to be the effect on 20 hour flight on passengers? Nothing really. Maybe extra jetlag. Nothing that other flights wont experience anyways.

Publicity. Period.

the trouble will not be the long flight, It will be being alert after coming into US domestic airspace and being alert for the last 2.5 to 3 hrs of an already butt busting trip.
One of the most congested centers in the World... New York Center.
 
ewt340
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:34 am

TObound wrote:
I am curious why they'd bother with Y at all on ULH. I don't even get the point of Y on PER-LHR. In my mind, these should be 3-class F/J/W.


Because it doesn't make sense for Qantas to cut off majority of their economy class seating because majority of people still fly in economy. It's not the most profitable, but it's needed to capture the demand.

Otherwise economy class passengers would be pushed out to other airlines.
 
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zeke
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:46 am

ewt340 wrote:
TObound wrote:
I am curious why they'd bother with Y at all on ULH. I don't even get the point of Y on PER-LHR. In my mind, these should be 3-class F/J/W.


Because it doesn't make sense for Qantas to cut off majority of their economy class seating because majority of people still fly in economy. It's not the most profitable, but it's needed to capture the demand.

Otherwise economy class passengers would be pushed out to other airlines.


Economy fares are not a single figure, an airline may have a dozen of different economy fare buckets. I have seen the highest economy fares as high as discounted business.

If you look at QF fares on their website often the cheapest fares are not on the direct service.
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speedbird52
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:06 am

Boeing74741R wrote:
aryonoco wrote:
More than anything, this is to gain some hard data re pilot fatigue to share with CASA.

The 744 that flew LHR-SYD 30 years ago had extra pilots.


The 747 flight 30 years was a publicity stunt. It's safe to assume no research was carried out to the levels that QF are intending to do with these upcoming flights, so as you say it's to gain hard data for the unions and authorities.

I found this article about the 747 flight which makes for interesting reading. A notable point which will be relevant to both the test flights and the Sunrise flights is how adverse weather at SYD which only became apparent during the flight nearly thwarted the attempt...

http://www.traveller.com.au/how-a-qanta ... 989-h0y0y4

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cpd
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:57 am

Pcoder wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
Also I have heard that among the 40 pax on the 'research flights' there will be some media, probably will be the usual suspects. A shame QF doesn't hold a contest to select a handful of real people, aka normal passengers.


A real test would be 3 passengers in economy right next to each other. If they don't test this, I'll consider this a bit of a publicity stunt.


Even more realistic would be 20-30 economy passengers all crammed in among each other. Should also simulate a very sudden loud noise when the pax are getting sleepy.
 
FL420FT
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:16 pm

cpd wrote:
Pcoder wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
Also I have heard that among the 40 pax on the 'research flights' there will be some media, probably will be the usual suspects. A shame QF doesn't hold a contest to select a handful of real people, aka normal passengers.


A real test would be 3 passengers in economy right next to each other. If they don't test this, I'll consider this a bit of a publicity stunt.


Even more realistic would be 20-30 economy passengers all crammed in among each other. Should also simulate a very sudden loud noise when the pax are getting sleepy.


With 40 people max on the plane, as much as it would make sense, I don't see that happening, 3 or 6 or 9 in Y, maybe 2 or 4 in W and at best one lucky should in J along with the accompanying flight attendants, tech crew and science guys from the previously mentioned study groups
 
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Stitch
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:21 pm

The reports made it clear that the purpose of the flights was to test the endurance of the flight and cabin crews, not the "passengers". So we will likely see a "passenger spread" per class of service based on how the cabin crew would be allocated. So a handful in Business, a few more in Premium Economy and the bulk in Economy. And I'd expect the ones in Economy to be spread around the cabin to reflect the amount of "aisle walking" am Economy Class cabin crew member would do during a flight serving multiple rows.
 
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 1:05 pm

Qantas pilots say the airline is being very ambitious to working out a pay deal with pilots by the end of the year with talks only beginning last month and QF is yet to put an offer on the table. This deal is critical to Project Sunrise going ahead and it seems to throw more doubt that it will be decided by the end of the year

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/busine ... 52ms5.html
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VV
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 1:09 pm

qf789 wrote:
Qantas pilots say the airline is being very ambitious to working out a pay deal with pilots by the end of the year with talks only beginning last month and QF is yet to put an offer on the table. This deal is critical to Project Sunrise going ahead and it seems to throw more doubt that it will be decided by the end of the year

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/busine ... 52ms5.html


I always expect the decision on Project Sunrise to be postponed.

However they can order aircraft this year for other reasons.
 
Scotron12
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 1:28 pm

If they love Boeing that much (778) they will wait.

Im past caring at this point!
 
flipdewaf
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 2:09 pm

morrisond wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
It has to be a fake rumour or misreporting. The 777-9 could never do the route. We can crunch the numbers.

The 777-9's empty weigh will be 15t heavier than the 777-8. The 777-200LR and 777-300ER have a 23t weight difference for 10m fuselage length difference. The 777-8 and 777-9 have a 7m fuselage difference which gives us a 15t difference.

If the 777-8 could do the route with 300 passengers then you would have to remove 15t of passengers on the 777-9. That means only 150 passengers.

But it gets even worse. The longer 777-9 will burn slightly more fuel than the 777-8 at the same flying weight due to extra surface drag. This would reduce the passenger count to 100 or even less.

Flipdewaf could run his excellent flight model and show what the payload will be.

If Boeing thinks the 777-9 can do the route with 200 passenger then that means the 777X will be performing much better than expected. That would also mean the 777-8 would be able to carry 350+ passengers and be totally immune to bad weather restrictions.

I’ll run it on Tuesday when I’m on lunch break, I was going to do it Friday but that’s POETS day.

I do agree however that the 779X isn’t likely to be able to do the job. If the 779X is able to do it at 200pax then it might mean that the 778X is able to do it with 350pax. It might also mean that the 778X isn’t required for anything other than sunrise and so is cancelled because for being unnecessary. This does seem remote though.

Fred


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


If they bump it to the rumoured 360T that may help the case as well and may be part of the delay. Flipdewaf - can you model that MTOW as well?

I would have to guess that if the 778 is that capable and can take 350 passengers that far that puts the ball back in Boeing's Court. The 777x could be a lot better than people are expecting, and not as big an increase in dry weight over 777W as we are expecting.

The 777x will be heavier than 777W/A350 for sure - but just think of how many heavy parts they are changing - Wings/Tail, Fuselage ribs/structure. Apparently some systems are being changed to save weight as well. Interior fittings will also probably be lightened using 3D printing and the rest based on 787 (lighter) interior parts. You would think all those are being designed with weight loss in mind.

What else is left (other than Gear-which should be no heavier than 777W, Nose, fuselage skins and wing box) that is going to be so inefficient in terms of weight vs the A350? I just read an article from a few years ago where they talk about production of the new 777X wing box - if they reused the 777W part - there would be no story - it's probably optimized as well but adopted for the bigger wing. The new bigger wing should be heavier but maybe not that much (30 years newer) and the engines should be heavier as well. The 777X will have been designed a good 7-8 years past A350 firm configuration, and they will be redesigning a lot of the basic structure that was first designed almost 30 years ago. Computers and 3D printing have advanced a lot since then.

We have not heard anything about whether or not the 777X is better than expected - but we also have not even heard what layout the possible 797 is. Boeing is pretty good at secrets these days and I would have guessed they threw a lot more resources(making it lighter) at it once they saw how good the A351 was going to be and with the lessons learned from 789 and 781. They would have been insane not too.

The proof may be in the pudding in terms of the 777X still getting orders over the A351.

The 778 may not be needed if they can take the 779 to 360T and it turns out better than we are expecting on ANet. A 360T 779 may not be Project Sunrise capable but it may be why the ME3 are looking like they don't want the 778 anymore. It sure does open up the possibility of an 777-10 though with still pretty good range.

A lighter than expected structure and 360T may also bring into the realm of possibility the F model being based on the 9 vs 8 as well. The interior volume could be very useful as an 748F replacement.

My models say:
Assuming that DOW is 188t and then adding payload on top of that (payload = food or people or cows or iphones or whatever you like)
Standard weight B779x will do sunrise with 18t payload using about 140t of fuel
360t 779X will take about 24t the distance using about 143t of fuel.

in both cases the 70mins fuel requirement is about 5t.

Fred
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RickNRoll
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Tue Sep 03, 2019 2:07 am

VV wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Qantas pilots say the airline is being very ambitious to working out a pay deal with pilots by the end of the year with talks only beginning last month and QF is yet to put an offer on the table. This deal is critical to Project Sunrise going ahead and it seems to throw more doubt that it will be decided by the end of the year

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/busine ... 52ms5.html


I always expect the decision on Project Sunrise to be postponed.

How would we be able to tell?
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Tue Sep 03, 2019 3:03 am

qf789 wrote:
Qantas pilots say the airline is being very ambitious to working out a pay deal with pilots by the end of the year with talks only beginning last month and QF is yet to put an offer on the table. This deal is critical to Project Sunrise going ahead and it seems to throw more doubt that it will be decided by the end of the year


Union seeks leverage in negotiation; film at 11!

The pilots know this is new work and more flying for them, and unless Joyce is being completely obtuse in his demands they will come to a deal if/when getting the work requires it.
 
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zeke
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Tue Sep 03, 2019 3:23 am

qf789 wrote:
Qantas pilots say the airline is being very ambitious to working out a pay deal with pilots by the end of the year with talks only beginning last month and QF is yet to put an offer on the table. This deal is critical to Project Sunrise going ahead and it seems to throw more doubt that it will be decided by the end of the year

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/busine ... 52ms5.html


Pilots were saying some time ago that AJ might use the negotiations as a reason to cancel sunrise, and just use it as leverage to reduce pilot costs. They did similar with the 787 saying they would cancel the orders unless the pay was reduced. (The 10 and 16 are my best recollection)

The main sticking point was under the pilot contract something like after 10 hours flight overtime was paid, under the 787 deal that was pushed out to something like 16 hours.

flipdewaf wrote:
My models say:
Assuming that DOW is 188t and then adding payload on top of that (payload = food or people or cows or iphones or whatever you like)
Standard weight B779x will do sunrise with 18t payload using about 140t of fuel
360t 779X will take about 24t the distance using about 143t of fuel.

in both cases the 70mins fuel requirement is about 5t.

Fred


That’s pointing to a still borne 777-8
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
sierrakilo44
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Tue Sep 03, 2019 5:47 am

zeke wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Pilots were saying some time ago that AJ might use the negotiations as a reason to cancel sunrise, and just use it as leverage to reduce pilot costs. They did similar with the 787 saying they would cancel the orders unless the pay was reduced. (The 10 and 16 are my best recollection)

The main sticking point was under the pilot contract something like after 10 hours flight overtime was paid, under the 787 deal that was pushed out to something like 16 hours.


There’s a feeling going around that the Project has been deemed commercially unviable, and management are just looking for a scapegoat instead of losing face and accepting that their proposal was unviable from the beginning.

From the pilot’s point of view they gave a 30% productivity gain to the company to secure the 787 and now the company has recorded record profits, with Alan Joyce personally making $36 million AUD in remuneration over the last two years. Now he is calling for more “productivity improvements” in order to secure the future project aircraft, which pilots believe is a bluff.

In a time of record profits and a shortage of workers in your profession any employee would be mad to accept any proposal which sees them working more for the same or less money.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Tue Sep 03, 2019 6:08 am

zeke wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
My models say:
Assuming that DOW is 188t and then adding payload on top of that (payload = food or people or cows or iphones or whatever you like)
Standard weight B779x will do sunrise with 18t payload using about 140t of fuel
360t 779X will take about 24t the distance using about 143t of fuel.

in both cases the 70mins fuel requirement is about 5t.

Fred


That’s pointing to a still borne 777-8

Maybe for routes other than project sunrise.

With crew plus catering 18t would be around 140 paying passengers. Flipdewaf model is for an average weather day. There may be days where tail winds could allow 180 passengers but then there will also be days where headwinds only 100 passengers. Changing his fuel burn rate by 1% could result in plus or minus 20 passengers. Fuel burn is unknown.

Also if the 777-9 can do the route with 18t then the 777-8 which should be 15t lighter will be carrying more than 33t of payload. 33t allows for a standard Qantas density cabin and no block seats on bad weather days. It will even allow a container or two of express cargo most of the year. That is about as commercially viable as you can get.

The 777-8 will be burning roughly 40% less fuel per ton of payload carried. By far the lowest fuel burn ler unit of payload weight of any potential option.
 
flipdewaf
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:34 am

RJMAZ wrote:
zeke wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
My models say:
Assuming that DOW is 188t and then adding payload on top of that (payload = food or people or cows or iphones or whatever you like)
Standard weight B779x will do sunrise with 18t payload using about 140t of fuel
360t 779X will take about 24t the distance using about 143t of fuel.

in both cases the 70mins fuel requirement is about 5t.

Fred


That’s pointing to a still borne 777-8

Maybe for routes other than project sunrise.

But its not Qantas' choice if boeing build it, that's Boeings and they also need to make the numbers work.
RJMAZ wrote:

With crew plus catering 18t would be around 140 paying passengers. Flipdewaf model is for an average weather day.

It's for a 20kt headwind giving a still air range of 9691nm, average day weather for the QF9 is 7kts headwind I believe and for QF10 is 13kts tailwind. QF have stated they would need up to 9500nm to take account of the weather for year round performance, its worth noting that maximum antipodal distance is 10800nm and the longer the sector the better chance you have of finding a favorable path.
RJMAZ wrote:
There may be days where tail winds could allow 180 passengers but then there will also be days where headwinds only 100 passengers. Changing his fuel burn rate by 1% could result in plus or minus 20 passengers. Fuel burn is unknown.

The real key to that though is predicting it, QF aren't selling many seats during a fire sale 24hrs before the flight dispatches because the weather looks good.
RJMAZ wrote:

Also if the 777-9 can do the route with 18t then the 777-8 which should be 15t lighter will be carrying more than 33t of payload. 33t allows for a standard Qantas density cabin and no block seats on bad weather days.

Thats certainly the benefit on the long journeys but most (like 99%) can be predicted over a year.
RJMAZ wrote:
It will even allow a container or two of express cargo most of the year.

I can't think of any cargo outside of the self loading type that is 3hrs sensitive and the reality of sending things air cargo is that there is probably more fluff than that in the system anyway. My experience sending long distance via a ship is 'some weeks' door to door and sending long distance via air freight is 'Some days' door to door. If you want to save 3hrs on your shipping time then you are better off waving a big stick at your customs broker and making sure that your consignment labeling is correct.
RJMAZ wrote:
That is about as commercially viable as you can get.

The 777-8 will be burning roughly 40% less fuel per ton of payload carried. By far the lowest fuel burn ler unit of payload weight of any potential option.
I would agree that is the case on the ULH routes that we are talking about for sunrise but it depends if it is better for QF to simply abuse and under-utilise the aircraft on the long routes and have it performing better on the shorter routes should they want it to become a larger part of their fleet. The real question comes in if Boeing does push the MTOW up to 360t pushing the 779X up to 8knm range for full pax and bags and realistically then the advantage of the 778X is only on routes above that distance. Below 8knm the 779X would carry more payload below this level due to its high max payload capability.

At 360t MTOW its less about weather QF want it but weather other players want it and then will Boeing even make it...If you were running one of the ME3 and you could help cut the legs out from under project sunrise by cancelling a jet that that only carries additional revenue payload over the 779X beyond 8knm?
http://www.gcmap.com/map?P=&R=8000nm%40 ... 0x360&PM=*

at 360T MTOW the 778 is dead...Roll on the 7710X.

Fred
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VV
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Tue Sep 03, 2019 11:00 am

Why do they plan only three flights?

Why not 20?
 
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Tue Sep 03, 2019 11:48 am

VV wrote:
Why do they plan only three flights?

Why not 20?

They probably cost 200k each and QF doesn’t want to throw money away.

Fred


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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qf002
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Tue Sep 03, 2019 11:56 am

sierrakilo44 wrote:
There’s a feeling going around that the Project has been deemed commercially unviable, and management are just looking for a scapegoat instead of losing face and accepting that their proposal was unviable from the beginning.


Ludicrous.

They wouldn’t be embarking on a major (and extremely expensive) publicity push if they planned to then shelve the whole project just a few months later.

If they wanted to can the whole thing then they’ve had an ideal opportunity to do so recently by blaming Boeing for delaying the 778.
 
VV
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Tue Sep 03, 2019 12:11 pm

flipdewaf wrote:
VV wrote:
Why do they plan only three flights?

Why not 20?

They probably cost 200k each and QF doesn’t want to throw money away.

Fred


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Can you draw a conclusion from three flights?
The three flights could well be a waste of time and money.
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Tue Sep 03, 2019 12:19 pm

VV wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
VV wrote:
Why do they plan only three flights?

Why not 20?

They probably cost 200k each and QF doesn’t want to throw money away.

Fred


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Can you draw a conclusion from three flights?
The three flights could well be a waste of time and money.


Qantas clearly seems to believe so they’re going to do it....
 
VV
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Tue Sep 03, 2019 12:32 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
VV wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
They probably cost 200k each and QF doesn’t want to throw money away.

Fred


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Can you draw a conclusion from three flights?
The three flights could well be a waste of time and money.


Qantas clearly seems to believe so they’re going to do it....


That's their money anyway.

I feel the project will be postponed.
 
getluv
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Tue Sep 03, 2019 12:37 pm

sierrakilo44 wrote:
zeke wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Pilots were saying some time ago that AJ might use the negotiations as a reason to cancel sunrise, and just use it as leverage to reduce pilot costs. They did similar with the 787 saying they would cancel the orders unless the pay was reduced. (The 10 and 16 are my best recollection)

The main sticking point was under the pilot contract something like after 10 hours flight overtime was paid, under the 787 deal that was pushed out to something like 16 hours.


There’s a feeling going around that the Project has been deemed commercially unviable, and management are just looking for a scapegoat instead of losing face and accepting that their proposal was unviable from the beginning.

From the pilot’s point of view they gave a 30% productivity gain to the company to secure the 787 and now the company has recorded record profits, with Alan Joyce personally making $36 million AUD in remuneration over the last two years. Now he is calling for more “productivity improvements” in order to secure the future project aircraft, which pilots believe is a bluff.

In a time of record profits and a shortage of workers in your profession any employee would be mad to accept any proposal which sees them working more for the same or less money.


Your post looks like it came from the Union’s playbook. What “feeling going around”? You mean from some disgruntled (ex-)pilots on pprune thinking QF should be paying them $400k a year to fly once a year like the good old times.

“Productivity improvements” are happening in every profession. Pilots are not immune. Given the leek probably came from the union side, they must not have the upper hand.
I'm that bad type.
 
flipdewaf
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Tue Sep 03, 2019 1:25 pm

VV wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
VV wrote:
Why do they plan only three flights?

Why not 20?

They probably cost 200k each and QF doesn’t want to throw money away.

Fred


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Can you draw a conclusion from three flights?

Yep,
"hey look, we predicted that 'X,Y, Z' would happen and they did".
Boeing only break one wing to validate their model, why should Qantas need to do more than 3 flights?
VV wrote:
The three flights could well be a waste of time and money.
Indeed they could, better than waste nearly 7 times as much on 20 wouldn't you think?

Fred
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Breathe
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Tue Sep 03, 2019 1:27 pm

VV wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
VV wrote:

Can you draw a conclusion from three flights?
The three flights could well be a waste of time and money.


Qantas clearly seems to believe so they’re going to do it....


That's their money anyway.

I feel the project will be postponed.

That's interesting. What do you base that on?
 
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scbriml
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Tue Sep 03, 2019 1:37 pm

VV wrote:
Why do they plan only three flights?

Why not 20?


The answer is in the very first post of this thread. They are the delivery flights of QF's next three 787s.

VV wrote:
The three flights could well be a waste of time and money.


Given these are delivery flights anyway, the only "wasted money" will be the very small incremental cost for the 'passengers' and crew.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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par13del
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Tue Sep 03, 2019 1:49 pm

Stitch wrote:
The reports made it clear that the purpose of the flights was to test the endurance of the flight and cabin crews, not the "passengers". So we will likely see a "passenger spread" per class of service based on how the cabin crew would be allocated. So a handful in Business, a few more in Premium Economy and the bulk in Economy. And I'd expect the ones in Economy to be spread around the cabin to reflect the amount of "aisle walking" am Economy Class cabin crew member would do during a flight serving multiple rows.

I would prefer them to put dummies in all the empty seats that would be sold with shirt bibs etc., something for the F/A's to do at each seat to simulate workload they would actually be doing. The pilots will be doing the same job whether the flight has 100 or 40 pax onboard, the F/A's on the other hand.....
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