Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
patrickjp93
Posts: 648
Joined: Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:00 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:04 am

xwb565 wrote:
12 aircraft is substantially more than what would be required for the routes discussed publicly for sunrise. Perhaps some unmodified a35k will be delivered for regional and regular transpacific ops?

No it isn't. 2 per city pair. 6 for London, 6 for New York to BNE/SYD/MEL. Truthfully that's fewer than desired for safety factor in the event of a delay.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1179
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:16 am

To me the press release is saying "we're not so sure anymore that this project will proceed.
If we proceed, the A350-1000 will be our preferred aircraft."

As there is no chance that QF would make the mistake of announcing a winning bidder before the contract is signed, I think that you guys should start to give up the idea.
This is a clean way to close this chapter.

I also doubt that PER-LHR will continue for very long with the B789.
They won't close it down right away to save face, they'll probably put the A380 1-stop (via PER?) back and we'll all pretend that this whole fantasy thing didn't happen.
 
User avatar
SCFlyer
Posts: 563
Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:14 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:18 am

It's likely that SYD would be the first cab off the rank for PS should the project go ahead.

Like all other "new" aircraft, the PS aircraft will likely be on domestic flights for familiarisation (e.g SYD/MEL-PER) before they start the first flights in 2023, which is very likely to be SYD-LHR.

Without knowing the delivery dates (based on the assumption PS gets the green light), the order will likely be SYD-LHR/JFK, then MEL-LHR/JFK once the fleet reaches up to 8 aircraft, followed by BNE-LHR/JFK for the last 4 of the 12 aircraft.
It wouldn't surprise me if the last 4 (for BNE) is delivered in 2026/2027, while the first 8 is spread out over 2023 to 2025.
 
patrickjp93
Posts: 648
Joined: Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:00 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:21 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
To me the press release is saying "we're not so sure anymore that this project will proceed.
If we proceed, the A350-1000 will be our preferred aircraft."

As there is no chance that QF would make the mistake of announcing a winning bidder before the contract is signed, I think that you guys should start to give up the idea.
This is a clean way to close this chapter.

I also doubt that PER-LHR will continue for very long with the B789.
They won't close it down right away to save face, they'll probably put the A380 1-stop (via PER?) back and we'll all pretend that this whole fantasy thing didn't happen.

Why would PER-LHR stop when it's Qantas' most efficiently yielding route in the network? The load factor for all classes is above 93% year round. Alan Joyce would have to have a lobotomy to close the route prior to PS taking off.
 
patrickjp93
Posts: 648
Joined: Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:00 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:22 am

SCFlyer wrote:
It's likely that SYD would be the first cab off the rank for PS should the project go ahead.

Like all other "new" aircraft, the PS aircraft will likely be on domestic flights for familiarisation (e.g SYD/MEL-PER) before they start the first flights in 2023, which is very likely to be SYD-LHR.

Without knowing the delivery dates (based on the assumption PS gets the green light), the order will likely be SYD-LHR/JFK, then MEL-LHR/JFK once the fleet reaches up to 8 aircraft, followed by BNE-LHR/JFK for the last 4 of the 12 aircraft.
It wouldn't surprise me if the last 4 (for BNE) is delivered in 2026/2027, while the first 8 is spread out over 2023 to 2025.

Depending on CASA's demeanor, they may actually require New York go first to prove the fatigue models hold up over a more representative sample of pilots before launching the longer routes.
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 1961
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:41 am

JohanTally wrote:
The 777-8 which doesn't even have a firm design yet but you have detailed fuel burn data is quite impressive. If it were to become a freighter it would be marketed to carriers looking for 10% more capacity over the 777F. The 777X family will be heavier but the wings and engines will realize fuel efficiency gains on most current 777 routes.

Even a basic amateur could predict the performance to within a few percent.

1) We have published 777-9 and 777-8 range/passenger numbers.
2) The 777-8 will be a shorter 777-9 with the same wing and engines.
3) We know the weight of the 777-9.
4) We know how much a metre of 777 fuselage tube weighs based on previous models.
5) We know what needed to be done to turn the 777LR into a 777F.
6) We have accurate data on the current 777F freighter to compare with.

When you are an aerospace professional and know how the numbers work the above information can be used to produce very accurate performance information on a 777X freighter.
 
Sparker
Posts: 32
Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2018 11:54 am

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 4:08 am

patrickjp93 wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
It's likely that SYD would be the first cab off the rank for PS should the project go ahead.

Like all other "new" aircraft, the PS aircraft will likely be on domestic flights for familiarisation (e.g SYD/MEL-PER) before they start the first flights in 2023, which is very likely to be SYD-LHR.

Without knowing the delivery dates (based on the assumption PS gets the green light), the order will likely be SYD-LHR/JFK, then MEL-LHR/JFK once the fleet reaches up to 8 aircraft, followed by BNE-LHR/JFK for the last 4 of the 12 aircraft.
It wouldn't surprise me if the last 4 (for BNE) is delivered in 2026/2027, while the first 8 is spread out over 2023 to 2025.

Depending on CASA's demeanor, they may actually require New York go first to prove the fatigue models hold up over a more representative sample of pilots before launching the longer routes.


I would have thought JFK would be easier to start with from a fleet-planning perspective as well - it should only require two frames for each city pair, while LHR will almost certainly (depending on timing) take two-point-something.
 
LAXLHR
Posts: 453
Joined: Sat Dec 03, 2016 10:07 am

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 5:09 am

Its not going to happen (with present technology and slow air speeds), and so all this talk has been a waste of time... but millions in revenue to QF!.
BA IB ET JM EA GK PA VS AA SN HP CO W7 WN NW DL UA AC US LH LX OS JL QF QR WY MH CX U2 EK 9W UK TP VY VN LO OK OZ UL SQ LA

707 727 L10 732-NG 741 742 743 744 752 753 762 763 772 773 787 DC8 DC9 DC10 M80 M11 100 AB3 310 318 319 320 321 330s 340s 350 380
 
a19901213
Posts: 178
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 10:38 am

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 5:18 am

Any chance of BNE-LHR happening?
 
User avatar
SCFlyer
Posts: 563
Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:14 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 5:37 am

a19901213 wrote:
Any chance of BNE-LHR happening?


BNE-LHR is listed in the official documents for Qantas' Project Sunrise. However BNE-LHR would be down the bottom of the priority list as SYD is likely first cab off the rank, followed by MEL.

Source: https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... ct-sunrise
 
Pinto
Posts: 48
Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2018 11:30 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:12 am

I would almost expect to see BNE - JFK first, with the while fight about pilot fatigue it might be a good test route to prove that the pilots can handle it
 
patrickjp93
Posts: 648
Joined: Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:00 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:37 am

Pinto wrote:
I would almost expect to see BNE - JFK first, with the while fight about pilot fatigue it might be a good test route to prove that the pilots can handle it

Exactly. I think the A350's best use for QF will be up-gauging the 789 flights to the U.S. and PER-LHR if PS doesn't come to be. The 789s can take over for the A330s in China, and the A330s can be retired. That still leaves the A380 problems to be solved, or one of them has to be.

MEL-SIN-LHR can be down-gauged to an A350 as long as Perth's flight can up-gauge. However, the remaining ones are a problem. LAX doesn't have much in terms of available slots, so moving to 2x 789 or A35K will be tough and probably require buying slots at a premium. DFW has plenty of open slots though, so going 2x daily isn't an issue.

However, doing all of the above uses double the 12-frame order.
2 PER-LHR,
2 MEL-SIN-LHR,
4 MEL-LAX,
4 SYD-SIN-LHR,
3+1 SYD-LAX (need at least this 1 hot spare for an issue with any of the A350 flights)
4(3?) SYD-DFW,
2 BNE-LAX,
2 BNE-ORD,
Bonus: 2 BNE-JFK given that is within range of the A35K

So 24+2 frames for my idea if we used the A350 frames to up-gauge all 789 flights and double up frequency on all A380 flights.
 
moa999
Posts: 909
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:37 am

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:46 am

Still think a A380 will go to LHR - if only to keep the number of Y pax, remember Sunrise is premium heavy, and they need to fly somewhere, plus the cost of slots of which QF is understood to have 4
I'd see
787 BNE-PER-LHR
350 SYD-LHR
350 MEL-LHR
380 SYD-SIN-LHR

Can't see much more than 1.5 350s weekly to JFK. Remember its only a single 787 at present.

Also note the release is up to 12. Wouldn't be surprised if that's more of a headline for pilot negotiation and actual order will be 8-10 with an option for future neos.
 
 
flipdewaf
Posts: 3481
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2006 6:28 am

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:58 am

patrickjp93 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
To me the press release is saying "we're not so sure anymore that this project will proceed.
If we proceed, the A350-1000 will be our preferred aircraft."

As there is no chance that QF would make the mistake of announcing a winning bidder before the contract is signed, I think that you guys should start to give up the idea.
This is a clean way to close this chapter.

I also doubt that PER-LHR will continue for very long with the B789.
They won't close it down right away to save face, they'll probably put the A380 1-stop (via PER?) back and we'll all pretend that this whole fantasy thing didn't happen.

Why would PER-LHR stop when it's Qantas' most efficiently yielding route in the network? The load factor for all classes is above 93% year round. Alan Joyce would have to have a lobotomy to close the route prior to PS taking off.

I think it’s to do with the amount of traffic that the PER-LHR sector that originates in SYD or MEL that could likely disappear. QF9/10 does of course start/end at MEL already.

Fred


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Image
 
qf002
Posts: 3657
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2011 11:14 am

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:44 am

moa999 wrote:
Can't see much more than 1.5 350s weekly to JFK. Remember its only a single 787 at present.


I agree, BNE-JFK will never happen and MEL-JFK is a distant prospect (would come secondary to MEL-DFW).

I'd suggest that the initial 12 frames could cover something like:

SYD/MEL-LHR (4)
SYD/MEL-DFW (4)
SYD-JFK (2)
SYD-ORD (2)
 
User avatar
JerseyFlyer
Posts: 1507
Joined: Fri May 25, 2007 7:24 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:43 am

If the 35K can win this, it is reasonable to ask "what is the 778 for?". I can certainly see airlines with 778s on order having pause for thought. The F role may be it's saviour as mentioned upthread.

Looking ahead 10 plus years when QF needs A330 and 380 replacements, they will need to spread their Airbus pilot pool over more than12 PS frames
 
FluidFlow
Posts: 639
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:39 am

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:46 am

If a slightly modified A35K beats the not even certified newer 777-8 now, a few PIPs down the road and a possible re-engined version will have the absolute upper hand over the 777-8 so there is no point in even certifying it, except as a freighter, if even. The 777F is already by far the best platform and does not need investment for now so Boeing can just pump them out.
 
stratable
Posts: 25
Joined: Mon Sep 23, 2019 12:22 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:56 am

Maybe they'll take a few modified A35k and a few standard A35k now (12 total).
Then another order of the A35K-NEOs a few years down the line when the A380s are going out.
A313 319/20/21 332/3 343 359 B734/8 742/4/4M 752/3 763ER 772/E/W 787-8/-9 CRJ900 CS300 ERJ-145 F70 Q100/300/400
 
olle
Posts: 1893
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:03 am

I think that for each month it is getting clear that the 777-300 er replacement market will become 350-1000 to loose.

This means that 777x will from now have an uphill battle to fight.

350-1000 to Quantasmeans that they probably will order more 350 in the future together with 787.
 
Miquel787
Posts: 98
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 4:11 am

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:18 am

Congrats to Airbus,it.s the right plane for the job.
Boeing lost it, it.s a dark year for the company.

But they will be back in 2020 once the Max will return to service and the 777-9 completes the first flight.

I think it.s the right choice from Qantas, the uncertainty of the 777-8 played a big part.Aorbus will deliver a customer made airliner without compromises.

But i think the 787 deserves a lot of credits. It paved the way for this project, starting with the longhaul Londond-Perth route, showing the tremendous potential of this aircraft. And let.s not forget the succesful testflights from New York and London to Sydney.

Again congrats to Airbus but with all the negative news coming from Seattle, i think also a thumbs up for Boeing would be in place..
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1179
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:18 am

patrickjp93 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
To me the press release is saying "we're not so sure anymore that this project will proceed.
If we proceed, the A350-1000 will be our preferred aircraft."

As there is no chance that QF would make the mistake of announcing a winning bidder before the contract is signed, I think that you guys should start to give up the idea.
This is a clean way to close this chapter.

I also doubt that PER-LHR will continue for very long with the B789.
They won't close it down right away to save face, they'll probably put the A380 1-stop (via PER?) back and we'll all pretend that this whole fantasy thing didn't happen.

Why would PER-LHR stop when it's Qantas' most efficiently yielding route in the network? The load factor for all classes is above 93% year round. Alan Joyce would have to have a lobotomy to close the route prior to PS taking off.


If we may believe QF, that may HAVE BEEN true in the wake of the highly publicised launch.
We don't know if that's the case still now.
The mere fact that QF is showing hesitation after screaming success initially shows that there is something cooking, and it ain't something tasty.
After the launch of PER-LHR they weren't exactly lining up this many maybe's.

Like I said, this is a flagship route.
If you have too small an aircraft on the route, even if you have a more desirable itinerary, you don't dictate yields anymore. If all your competitors push their yields down, you have to follow. There will always be a few who'll pay anything you ask, but they're going to be a minority. The majority have to work with budgets and their time is not valuable enough to justify a major cost difference.
In addition, many people don't understand how yield management works in a multiclass operation. Economy class and business class work in tandem, one helping the other depending on the time of the week, the month or the year.

When QF presented their A380, it looked like the interior of a KC10 or some other military transport, with kaki green seats. Their new seats on their new B789 C class are also not comparable to the thrones that you get on SQ's new A380 or EK's A380 C class.

At the end of the day, it's a matter of value, and that value becomes questionnable when you compete with a ok product against the likes of SQ and EK where their whole business model revolves around offering value.

Most self-made riches won't throw away their money, they expect value for their money. They'll pay more for something if it's worth it, but they won't pay more for less value, or at least not twice.

PER-LHR may have been successful initially, but I doubt that they're seeing many returning guests or at least not at the price points that they would like to see. There will always be a few die-hards, not enough to make a living though and I expect QF to come back to LHR with 2 A380's sooner rather than later.
The A380 can also operate MEL-PER-LHR, but I'm not sure that this is the best combination.
Other options are MEL-SIN-LHR, MEL-HKG-LHR(not now but when things get settled), MEL-BKK-LHR(seems low yielding), MEL-HND-LHR (detour but could be worth the higher yields) or even going direct MEL-LHR with the A380 with 300 pax with an ultra-premium, high value cabin.
 
yoyo777
Posts: 16
Joined: Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:06 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:28 am

There is a big "if". I wonder what is chance that QF indeed goes ahead and order the A350... I guess we have to wait and see.
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 18956
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:32 am

Sweet.

Image

I must go back and read some of the old Project Sunrise threads.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
Ronaldo747
Posts: 380
Joined: Sat Feb 14, 2009 4:58 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 10:34 am

FluidFlow wrote:
The 777F is already by far the best platform and does not need investment for now so Boeing can just pump them out.


Even the 777F needs an update towards 2025, 2030 at the latest. The GE90 will be old technology by then.
 
User avatar
SQ22
Moderator
Posts: 1825
Joined: Sat Feb 25, 2012 9:29 am

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 10:37 am

Ronaldo747 wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
The 777F is already by far the best platform and does not need investment for now so Boeing can just pump them out.


Even the 777F needs an update towards 2025, 2030 at the latest. The GE90 will be old technology by then.


We are getting off topic, but by looking at the 767F we could start a discussion in a separate thread.
 
User avatar
BobMUC
Posts: 1087
Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2011 9:59 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 10:57 am

yoyo777 wrote:
There is a big "if". I wonder what is chance that QF indeed goes ahead and order the A350... I guess we have to wait and see.


Where do you see the big "if"?

From my point of view, the decision for the A35k is clear without an "if".
There might be a slight "if" from the other points:
REGULATORY APPROVAL + PILOT NEGOTIATIONS

But if QF doesn't solve these issues, then PS is dead. No other way forward with a different aircraft.
 
kayik
Posts: 114
Joined: Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:58 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 11:31 am

If London is the range limit from Sydney, QF can fly anywhere non-stop outside the red circle. This leaves out Ireland, Spain (maybe except Barcelona), Portugal, Morocco and Senegal only. 700nm more range would do all of them. Maybe a B778 or A350-11.

When it comes to PS, it will eventually be realized. Australians travel and can afford anything. Especially if the competition is from the middle east, a good premium worth paying to avoid these airports.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ELqZgK8XsAA ... name=small
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 13827
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 11:34 am

No suprize IMO. The A350 weighs so much less & that helps on every flight, intra Asia and ULH. A good combi with their 787-9 fleet.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Gemuser
Posts: 5078
Joined: Mon Nov 24, 2003 12:07 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 11:47 am

qf002 wrote:
moa999 wrote:
Can't see much more than 1.5 350s weekly to JFK. Remember its only a single 787 at present.


I agree, BNE-JFK will never happen and MEL-JFK is a distant prospect (would come secondary to MEL-DFW).

I'd suggest that the initial 12 frames could cover something like:

SYD/MEL-LHR (4)
SYD/MEL-DFW (4)
SYD-JFK (2)
SYD-ORD (2)

People please read, at least, the last 2 pages of the thread.
1) You CAN NOT RUN SYD/MEL - LHR with only 4 frames. It requires about 5,5 frames IF the timetable allows it. Historically, since the B744 took over all the SYD/MEL - LHR services it REQUIRED 6 frames!!! Some time after QF 1 & 2s and QF 9 &10s transit stop was moved from SIN to DXB QF was able to rejig the timetable to cut down the layover time of one A380 to allow the requirement of frames to be reduce to around 5.5. The major constraints are the slot times at LHR AND the SYD curfew which combine to prevent a fast turn around at LHR
2) While some poster have said of course SYD - JFK can be done with 2 frames . I will not be convince until I see a timetable that takes ALL the constriants into account. My gut feel is that the departure time ex JFK will have to put back because of the SYD curfew but I don't have time to work it out. In this case 2 frames may not be enough.
3) To me it looks like QF will need a minium of 8 frames to run the 3 PS routes. The introduction of routes will have to be staged as QF does not normalyy take delivery of more than 3 or 4 wide body frames a year due to CAPEX consideration. If this is correct they will only be able to introduce one route per year, three over two years if they really push it.
4) The number of frames stated in QFs press release, 12 will allow the three routes with 1 spare ie 5.5 LHR + 2.something JFK = about 8 frames + 2 spare frames [at least while they initial deliveries are happening] =10 + 2 for expansion =12, which leaves 2 frames for other routes.
This is based only on public information and could be consertative and very consertative if SYD - JFK can in fact be done reliably with 2 frames.

Gemuser
 
a19901213
Posts: 178
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 10:38 am

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 11:59 am

Wouldn’t it be better if we start a new thread and focus more on 350 and how QF is gonna do with them?

Most part of this thread is purely A V B fanboy and way too long and too hard to find useful information
 
moa999
Posts: 909
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:37 am

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:26 pm

Thread title has already been updated..
We still don't have an order
 
User avatar
RyanairGuru
Posts: 8252
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2006 3:59 am

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:26 pm

Gemuser wrote:
qf002 wrote:
moa999 wrote:
Can't see much more than 1.5 350s weekly to JFK. Remember its only a single 787 at present.


I agree, BNE-JFK will never happen and MEL-JFK is a distant prospect (would come secondary to MEL-DFW).

I'd suggest that the initial 12 frames could cover something like:

SYD/MEL-LHR (4)
SYD/MEL-DFW (4)
SYD-JFK (2)
SYD-ORD (2)

People please read, at least, the last 2 pages of the thread.
1) You CAN NOT RUN SYD/MEL - LHR with only 4 frames. It requires about 5,5 frames IF the timetable allows it. Historically, since the B744 took over all the SYD/MEL - LHR services it REQUIRED 6 frames!!! Some time after QF 1 & 2s and QF 9 &10s transit stop was moved from SIN to DXB QF was able to rejig the timetable to cut down the layover time of one A380 to allow the requirement of frames to be reduce to around 5.5. The major constraints are the slot times at LHR AND the SYD curfew which combine to prevent a fast turn around at LHR
2) While some poster have said of course SYD - JFK can be done with 2 frames . I will not be convince until I see a timetable that takes ALL the constriants into account. My gut feel is that the departure time ex JFK will have to put back because of the SYD curfew but I don't have time to work it out. In this case 2 frames may not be enough.
3) To me it looks like QF will need a minium of 8 frames to run the 3 PS routes. The introduction of routes will have to be staged as QF does not normalyy take delivery of more than 3 or 4 wide body frames a year due to CAPEX consideration. If this is correct they will only be able to introduce one route per year, three over two years if they really push it.
4) The number of frames stated in QFs press release, 12 will allow the three routes with 1 spare ie 5.5 LHR + 2.something JFK = about 8 frames + 2 spare frames [at least while they initial deliveries are happening] =10 + 2 for expansion =12, which leaves 2 frames for other routes.
This is based only on public information and could be consertative and very consertative if SYD - JFK can in fact be done reliably with 2 frames.

Gemuser


Agree entirely on ~6 frames for SYD+MEL-LHR.

I believe you are referring to me when say some poster said of course SYD-JFK only requires 2 frames. It does. Using a slightly hypothetical schedule based on QF's current JFK slots you get the following for AEDT:

SYD-JFK 16:00-16:30
JFK-SYD 18:00-06:30 (+2)

They would need to depart JFK 2 hours later during NS.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
marcelh
Posts: 986
Joined: Wed Jun 19, 2013 12:43 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:30 pm

olle wrote:
350-1000 to Quantasmeans that they probably will order more 350 in the future together with 787.


It will be interesting when Qantas wants something in between the B787-9 and the A35K. It can be filled perfectly with both the B787-10 and the A359.

First we have to wait for the final decision about Project Sunrise.
 
User avatar
MaxiAir
Posts: 306
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2013 7:32 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:28 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
When QF presented their A380, it looked like the interior of a KC10 or some other military transport, with kaki green seats. Their new seats on their new B789 C class are also not comparable to the thrones that you get on SQ's new A380 or EK's A380 C class.


It seems you are easily impressed by some bling bling and the extensive add-ons and amenities.

The Emirates seat is at best average, quite narrow, narrow footwell, nothing special.

The Singapore one has a wide seat, but when laying down, you have a relatively narrow footwell here as well. Some people love them, some don‘t.

But the Qantas seat, the Thompson Vantage XL, despite not being the outstanding QSuite or Apex Suite, is a top product and a very competitive offer. It offers loads of space, a wide seat, generous foot space and a comfy bed given the mattress Qantas even supplies on shorter flights to Asia.
Flown on - 306,313,318,319,320,321,332,333,343,345,346,359,35K,388, 712,733,734,735,736,73G,738,744,748,752,753,763,77E,77L,77W, 788, 789, M11, M1F, M88, CR7,CR9, E35,E45,E75,E90,E95, AR1,AR8, DHT,DH1,DH4, and some more ;)
 
chonetsao
Posts: 549
Joined: Sun Nov 06, 2005 3:55 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:38 pm

I can see daily SYD-LHR and PER-LHR, possibly 4 weekly MEL-LHR as well as 3 weekly BNE-LHR, make its 3 daily.

But I would not believe any AUS-JFK would happen at all. The market is not big enough to warrant non-stop flight.

That being said, a possible PER-MAN/FRA link could be on the cards, may have better performance than AUS-JFK.
 
User avatar
flyingclrs727
Posts: 2575
Joined: Thu Apr 19, 2007 7:44 am

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:50 pm

Ronaldo747 wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
The 777F is already by far the best platform and does not need investment for now so Boeing can just pump them out.


Even the 777F needs an update towards 2025, 2030 at the latest. The GE90 will be old technology by then.


So will GE need to uprate the GE9X to 110 Klbs to match the thrust of the engines on the 7772-200LR and the 777F?
 
kriskim
Posts: 410
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 12:44 am

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:55 pm

chonetsao wrote:
I can see daily SYD-LHR and PER-LHR, possibly 4 weekly MEL-LHR as well as 3 weekly BNE-LHR, make its 3 daily.

But I would not believe any AUS-JFK would happen at all. The market is not big enough to warrant non-stop flight.

That being said, a possible PER-MAN/FRA link could be on the cards, may have better performance than AUS-JFK.


MEL can hold its own with daily services to LHR, I think it defeats the purpose of the project to have these less than daily. Since these flights are more catered towards time poor premium pax.
A world built upon connectivity.
 
Aviation737
Posts: 63
Joined: Sun Nov 25, 2018 1:53 am

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 2:04 pm

Some good news for Boeing would have been nice...
 
User avatar
Erebus
Posts: 1133
Joined: Tue Oct 20, 2015 2:40 am

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 2:05 pm

marcelh wrote:
olle wrote:
350-1000 to Quantasmeans that they probably will order more 350 in the future together with 787.


It will be interesting when Qantas wants something in between the B787-9 and the A35K. It can be filled perfectly with both the B787-10 and the A359.

First we have to wait for the final decision about Project Sunrise.


No mention of it in this latest news. But I believe Qantas said that if they go with the A350-1000 for the PS order, they may look into -900s as well.
 
User avatar
ClassicLover
Posts: 4813
Joined: Tue Mar 09, 2004 12:27 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 2:18 pm

stratable wrote:
Maybe they'll take a few modified A35k and a few standard A35k now (12 total).
Then another order of the A35K-NEOs a few years down the line when the A380s are going out.


Nope. The flights are scheduled to start in first half of 2023. There'll be no standard aircraft "now" and then "NEOs" (which don't exist) in a few years time. I don't see why you'd say that when the press release is quite specific about the aircraft and when it will be coming in.

If the pilots etc agree, that is. It still may not happen.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
At the end of the day, it's a matter of value, and that value becomes questionnable when you compete with a ok product against the likes of SQ and EK where their whole business model revolves around offering value.

PER-LHR may have been successful initially, but I doubt that they're seeing many returning guests or at least not at the price points that they would like to see. There will always be a few die-hards, not enough to make a living though and I expect QF to come back to LHR with 2 A380's sooner rather than later.


Did you miss the part of the press release from Qantas that states they are designing entirely new first class, business class, premium economy class and economy class seats for Project Sunrise? Comparing the current products to other airlines is a moot point since they'll be entirely new for the A350-1000.

You comments on PER-LHR contradict pretty much everything Qantas have said. You might want to read this - https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Perth-London-Report-Card.pdf - it has the highest load factors on the network and also, more importantly, the highest customer satisfaction score. I think that speaks for itself.
I do enjoy a spot of flying, especially when it's not in economy!
 
stratable
Posts: 25
Joined: Mon Sep 23, 2019 12:22 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 2:29 pm

ClassicLover wrote:
stratable wrote:
Maybe they'll take a few modified A35k and a few standard A35k now (12 total).
Then another order of the A35K-NEOs a few years down the line when the A380s are going out.

---
Nope. The flights are scheduled to start in first half of 2023. There'll be no standard aircraft "now" and then "NEOs" (which don't exist) in a few years time. I don't see why you'd say that when the press release is quite specific about the aircraft and when it will be coming in.

If the pilots etc agree, that is. It still may not happen.
---

My reasoning was just to consider whether they actually need 12 of the highter MTOW aircraft with the extra tank for Project Sunrise whenever it will Launch (the Board apparently also has yet to decide on the exact number as per press release). Or if these higher MTOW aircraft will part of a general A350 order strategy. The "now" in my sentence was just referring to the order date.
A313 319/20/21 332/3 343 359 B734/8 742/4/4M 752/3 763ER 772/E/W 787-8/-9 CRJ900 CS300 ERJ-145 F70 Q100/300/400
 
Ferroviarius
Posts: 257
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2007 3:28 am

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:11 pm

Good afternoon,

please forgive a sequence of potentially stupid questions by an utter amateur in the field:

With this A350-1000, HEL-AKL and v.v. and even HEL-CHC and v.v. would be feasible non stop (as indicated by a resp. search on the Great Circle Mapper).

Given that HEL is a comparatively small and - to my mind - very decent and nice airport, where they at present manage to have 45 min connections for Europe - East Asia flights:

Would HEL-AKL / CHC and v.v. combined with 319/320/321 feeding flights from LHR / MAN / EDI and many other airports on the continent and in Scandinavia be economically meaningful for AY (and / or other One World companies)?

Or, in other words:

Would LHR-HEL-AKL / CHC have any advantage for a passenger or for the airline as compared to, e.g., LHR-SIN-AKL / CHC or LHR-HKG-AKL/CHC or LHR-Middle East-AKL / CHC?

Or, even more abstractly worded:

Is one short flight and a very short transfer time at a "small and fast airport" (HEL) better than two long flights and a modest to long transfer time at a "slow and large airport" (SIN / HKG / Middle East)?

AY, as many among you certainly know, operates 350s at this time.

Best wishes,

Ferroviarius
 
Lewton
Posts: 147
Joined: Sat Jan 19, 2019 12:46 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:13 pm

Very good news.
The A350 keeps asserting its superiority.
From Hamburg with love.
 
User avatar
ClassicLover
Posts: 4813
Joined: Tue Mar 09, 2004 12:27 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 4:05 pm

stratable wrote:
My reasoning was just to consider whether they actually need 12 of the highter MTOW aircraft with the extra tank for Project Sunrise whenever it will Launch (the Board apparently also has yet to decide on the exact number as per press release). Or if these higher MTOW aircraft will part of a general A350 order strategy. The "now" in my sentence was just referring to the order date.


Thanks for the clarification, I get you now. I think Gemuser's post (further up) details quite nicely how many aircraft are needed for the flights.
I do enjoy a spot of flying, especially when it's not in economy!
 
Baldr
Posts: 85
Joined: Sat Nov 23, 2019 1:10 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 4:31 pm

patrickjp93 wrote:
Baldr wrote:
patrickjp93 wrote:
It's not underestimation really. The MAX crisis has thrown a spanner into Boeing's works in ways that make the A350 the only logical choice for risk-averse boards of directors. That, and Qantas probably needed to extend an olive branch to Europe after the big shift to 787s for their mainline long haul. If the A321 XLRs do all go to Jet Star and largely replace their 788 routes, then QF can take back the 788 for runs between Perth and the Eastern capitals or for the flights out to China. Depending on how the load factors shift, maybe even replace the flights for BNE/SYD/MEL to LAX.


Again, just watch the video that I linked.

The narrator of the video (with an annoying voice) is claiming that the 777-8 will be flying significantly further than the A350-1000.

That says it all, really.


well, 1,240km is a pretty significant difference, 16,090 for the A35K vs. 17,330 for the 777-8. And yes, of course, the A35K could always get an ACT, just like the 777-8 could. I mean for crying out loud it's not like the A350-1000 is able to do this just with its wings and central tank. THAT would be a marvel. When the A350 NEO comes to pass, then that capability will exist.


An ULR version of the A350-1000 is fuel volume limited (i.e presumably the same max internal volume as the A350-900URL; or 165,000 litres), while the 777X was designed to hold more than enough volume internally in the wingbox for the -8X ULR version (i.e. 198,000 litres). Hence, the 777-9 is essentially "overwinged" with respect to internal volume in the wingbox (i.e. centre wingbox + 2 x outer wingboxes).

The 777-8 would obviously not need an ACT. Perhaps you're thinking about the 777-200LR which can be outfitted with 3 ACTs

Now, the 319 metric tonnes MTOW version of the A350-1000 appears to have a payload capability of around 10 metric tonnes at a range of 9500nm (17,594 km) -- and that's without an ACT. The 16,090 km range you were quoting, is for 366 passengers; or a payload of 34,770 kg (i.e. 95 kg per passenger + luggage). So, your assertion that the A350-1000 "only" has a range of 16,090 km is plainly wrong.

What is clear, however, is that Boeing designed the 777-8 and 777-9 similar to how they designed the 777-200LR and 777-300ER; B-Market (Boeing designation) for the 77W and 779; C-Market, or ULR for the 77L and 778. Hence, Boeing seem to have missed out on the point that the new light-weight, CFRP content of 50-plus-percent-by-weight wide-bodies has a much less steep range-payload curve, and that their lower empty weights are increasingly beneficial the longer you fly.

When the 777X programme was launched in 2013, Boeing probably never expected that both the B-Market Trent XWB-powered A350-900 and A350-1000 models would be able to quite easily be enhanced in such a way that they would be able to economically fly C-Market routes as well. In fact, Boeing and Randy Tinseth have repeatedly been talking down the A350-1000 and Trent XWB-97 engine (i.e. being "under-powered", not big enough etc.). Perhaps they thought that Airbus couldn't possibly deliver to spec. Likewise, it probably never occurred to them that Airbus could exceed the specifications. At the time, Randy Tinseth & Co. had long since been ridiculing the A340, while Richard Aboulafia & Co. had been praising the 777-300ER as the best aircraft ever. Hence, if one listened to both what was being said by Boeing paid shills and from that of U.S. based "analysts", Boeing always "under-promised" and "over-delivered" while Airbus only built "heavy" airframes. Cases in point: A320 was heavier than the 737NG; A340-600 was heavier than the 777-300ER and the A380 was heavier than the 747-8 -- and the "panelized" A350 was "much-less-advanced" than the 787.
 
User avatar
spinotter
Posts: 776
Joined: Wed May 27, 2015 1:37 am

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 4:52 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
To me the press release is saying "we're not so sure anymore that this project will proceed.
If we proceed, the A350-1000 will be our preferred aircraft."

As there is no chance that QF would make the mistake of announcing a winning bidder before the contract is signed, I think that you guys should start to give up the idea.
This is a clean way to close this chapter.

I also doubt that PER-LHR will continue for very long with the B789.
They won't close it down right away to save face, they'll probably put the A380 1-stop (via PER?) back and we'll all pretend that this whole fantasy thing didn't happen.


I haven't been following the discussion, but I wonder if you are serious in your comments and if so, why?
 
cpd
Posts: 6305
Joined: Sat Jun 28, 2008 4:46 am

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:29 pm

scbriml wrote:
Sweet.

Image

I must go back and read some of the old Project Sunrise threads.


Although it would be fun to go back and read the old messages of doom about the A350, I really doubt we’ll even see the plane in Qantas colours in real life.

I’m not sure this project will go ahead.

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... t-sunrise/

That is how the press release sounds.
 
ewt340
Posts: 1201
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:32 pm

Even Stevie Wonder could see this one coming.
 
ewt340
Posts: 1201
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:34 pm

cpd wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Sweet.

Image

I must go back and read some of the old Project Sunrise threads.


Although it would be fun to go back and read the old messages of doom about the A350, I really doubt we’ll even see the plane in Qantas colours in real life.

I’m not sure this project will go ahead.

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... t-sunrise/

That is how the press release sounds.


A330 and A380 would be out in the future. They can't just survived on B787-9. Probably gonna order some standard A350-900/-1000 if Project Sunrise Fail.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos