Gemuser wrote:People please read, at least, the last 2 pages of the thread.
1) You CAN NOT RUN SYD/MEL - LHR with only 4 frames. It requires about 5,5 frames IF the timetable allows it. Historically, since the B744 took over all the SYD/MEL - LHR services it REQUIRED 6 frames!!! Some time after QF 1 & 2s and QF 9 &10s transit stop was moved from SIN to DXB QF was able to rejig the timetable to cut down the layover time of one A380 to allow the requirement of frames to be reduce to around 5.5. The major constraints are the slot times at LHR AND the SYD curfew which combine to prevent a fast turn around at LHR
2) While some poster have said of course SYD - JFK can be done with 2 frames . I will not be convince until I see a timetable that takes ALL the constriants into account. My gut feel is that the departure time ex JFK will have to put back because of the SYD curfew but I don't have time to work it out. In this case 2 frames may not be enough.
3) To me it looks like QF will need a minium of 8 frames to run the 3 PS routes. The introduction of routes will have to be staged as QF does not normalyy take delivery of more than 3 or 4 wide body frames a year due to CAPEX consideration. If this is correct they will only be able to introduce one route per year, three over two years if they really push it.
4) The number of frames stated in QFs press release, 12 will allow the three routes with 1 spare ie 5.5 LHR + 2.something JFK = about 8 frames + 2 spare frames [at least while they initial deliveries are happening] =10 + 2 for expansion =12, which leaves 2 frames for other routes.
This is based only on public information and could be consertative and very consertative if SYD - JFK can in fact be done reliably with 2 frames.
Firstly, I have read just about every single post made on this site about PS (the good, the bad and the ugly!).
Secondly, it is absolutely possible to do SYD or MEL-LHR daily with two aircraft. Historic schedules are irrelevant.
dep SYD 2100 arr LHR 0600+1
dep LHR 1000 arr SYD 1700+1
Plane that departs on Monday arrives back on Wednesday with ample time to turn around back to LHR (or to dovetail into an evening departure over the Pacific). This is also the only realistic schedule given the curfew restrictions on both ends. You could flip these times 12hrs for MEL but that would mean a 3am arrival into MEL during the NS which isn't ideal.
To run both SYD and MEL to this schedule would require one existing evening departure be brought forward to the middle of the day, which is admittedly a busy period at LHR. They would also need to rejig the existing PER/SIN flights to make way for the flagship PS services. Obstacles but nothing unachievable.
Part of the efficiencies that nonstop services provide is the reduction of downtime. If QF can do double daily LHR with four planes rather than five or six then that represents huge savings which is a critical element of the business case.
Thirdly, SYD-JFK is an easy 2 frames (I'd even say 1.5 if they had something to dovetail it into):
dep SYD 1500 arr JFK 1700
dep JFK 1900 arr SYD 0600+2
or anything later than that works as well, you just get back to SYD later in the morning. A later arrival into JFK may be preferable anyway to avoid potential fuel-related diversions in the early-evening.
dep SYD 2100 arr JFK 2300
dep JFK 0100 arr SYD 1200+1
As for delivery schedules, it's quite feasible that they could take delivery of six aircraft during calendar year 2023 (four in FY23 and two in FY24). Obviously a new fleet takes time to build up and routes don't all start at once. It will be interesting to see how they prioritise the rollout (ie SYD-LHR/JFK first and MEL later, or SYD/MEL-LHR then JFK later etc).
And of course, this all goes without saying that it's all still hypothetical at this stage anyway!!