StudiodeKadent
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 9:41 am

zeke wrote:
qf789 wrote:

Qantas has previously stated that the aircraft will be four classes which includes first class. They have also mentioned recently they will add extra legroom to some economy seats, some thing similar to Virgin's EconomyX


Do you have some thoughts on the number of F seats they would consider ?

Do you think it would be 3 across or 4 across ?


I wager QF will go for a 1-1-1 cabin in two rows (like CX's current First cabins). Perhaps a custom product with a dovetailed design. Think like Safran's "Fusio" seat but wider.

In theory they might want to go for a single row of four abreast but that may cannibalize Business demand. And 8 seats is probably too much since PS will essentially result in a wider geographic distribution of Qantas First (thus sucking up connecting traffic etc). 6 per plane sounds the most realistic to me.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 9:49 am

mjoelnir wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
zeke wrote:

I understand part of the dispute between the parties was that the airport wanted all international traffic to be in the “international” terminal where QF have a special international enclave inside the “domestic” terminal. (The terminals are not called international and domestic, I am using the terms to illustrate their main use).

QF were saying they would fly PER CDG from the “domestic” terminal, and the airport is saying pay up the money you owe us first.


Interesting.
One would think that PER should be kissing QF management's feet for putting them on the global map with PER-LHR at a great risk and cost to themselves.


As Qantas seems to make money on this flights, they should perhaps kiss the feet of the airport managers, you have to accommodate different needs for international flights than domestic flights.


Thank you, this is the communication problem that I'm pointing at. QF says that PER-LHR is printing money and yet they expect everyone to make concessions for this route and for the PS routes.
Why would QF be all over the place with how the route is a huge success, when they know that this would put them in a weak position for negotiations with their suppliers and staff?
"Hey, we're gonna make a killing on our new project, but you're gonna have to take a pay cut."
Either QF isn't printing money as they expected and it was all PR, or they're really bad at communicating and are going to end up having to share their success with staff and suppliers. I don't know which one is worse.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 10:00 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Good for Boeing for pulling out of this charade.


Boeing didn’t “pull out”, Qantas selected Airbus.


Qantas selected Airbus as a preferred option, not as the definite choice.

Remember that this comes weeks after QF sent Airbus' and Boeing's proposals back. Let's not pretend that that didn't happen.


And both OEMs returned updated bids. Let’s not pretend that didn’t happen. :sarcastic:

Qantas has selected and publicly announced the A350-1000 as the plane that will operate Project Sunrise flights. The decision has been made.
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JustSomeDood
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 10:06 am

scbriml wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

Boeing didn’t “pull out”, Qantas selected Airbus.


Qantas selected Airbus as a preferred option, not as the definite choice.

Remember that this comes weeks after QF sent Airbus' and Boeing's proposals back. Let's not pretend that that didn't happen.


And both OEMs returned updated bids. Let’s not pretend that didn’t happen. :sarcastic:

Qantas has selected and publicly announced the A350-1000 as the plane that will operate Project Sunrise flights. The decision has been made.


Implying QF have actually decided to go ahead with project sunrise, and that actual orders have been announced, neither of which actually happened.
 
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keesje
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 10:35 am

Risk. The A350-1000 is still a very good idea if Sunrise falls in the water. Ask yourself that for the delayed, heavy, non certified 777-8.
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Scotron12
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 10:38 am

The decision on aircraft type has been made if PS goes ahead. Final decision on PS to be made in March 2020.
 
checklist350
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 10:47 am

redroo wrote:

I am surprised they mentioned in the in the press release though. “We like the plane, and we dont the RR have problems, but they’re ok now” is an odd thing to say.


That is an absurd interpretation of what was actually said:
"This aircraft uses the Rolls Royce Trent XWB engine, which has a strong reliability record after being in service with airlines for more than two years."

Given that the GE9X has issues right now and is completely unproven, it seems the great reliability of the XWB was an important deciding factor, enough to be the first reason mentioned, before range performance.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 11:06 am

JustSomeDood wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:

Qantas selected Airbus as a preferred option, not as the definite choice.

Remember that this comes weeks after QF sent Airbus' and Boeing's proposals back. Let's not pretend that that didn't happen.


And both OEMs returned updated bids. Let’s not pretend that didn’t happen. :sarcastic:

Qantas has selected and publicly announced the A350-1000 as the plane that will operate Project Sunrise flights. The decision has been made.


Implying QF have actually decided to go ahead with project sunrise, and that actual orders have been announced, neither of which actually happened.


I never implied either of those things. :shakehead:

But there’s no denying that Qantas has selected the A350-1000 as the plane to operate Project Sunrise, if they go ahead. That has been clear since Qantas made the announcement.

I’m really not sure why some people seem to be having so much issue with Qantas selection. :scratchchin:
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VV
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 11:44 am

The announcement (click here) was quite interesting and there are some ambiguities there.

Qantas is today announcing several important developments for Project Sunrise ahead of a final go/no go decision, which will now take place in March 2020.


The decision to go ahead or not to go is expected in March 2020. However, it has already decided on the platform.

Airbus will add an additional fuel tank and slightly increase the maximum takeoff weight to deliver the performance required for Sunrise routes.


This raises the following question whether the A350-1000 would actually be ordered subsequent to the decision if ever it is a no-go decision. It is very likely the answer would be affirmative. However, in that case they do not need to have the increased maximum take-off weight nor the additional fuel capacity.

If they decide to order the A350-1000, but not to go with the Project Sunrise then it would be more reasonable to not modify the aircraft. It would be easier and cheaper for everybody.

Airbus has agreed to extend the deadline to confirm delivery slots from February 2020 to March 2020. This provides additional time to negotiate an industrial agreement without impacting the planned start date of Project Sunrise flights in the first half of calendar 2023.


The production slots must be secured and if ever the decision is to go ahead with the Project Sunrise then there are several steps that need to be done on the aircraft side.
  • Airbus will have to discuss with the regulatory authorities on the certification basis (6 months)
  • Design of the modified system: plumbing, fuel pumps, fuel system logic, refueling panel, Flight Management Computer and software, etc.
  • RFP with the suppliers of the additional fuel capacity, actual production
  • all the documentations like Weight and Balance Manual, AFM and so on and so forth
I must have forgotten other details. In essence, three years lead time to EIS is in my opinion very tight.

I expect the Project Sunrise would not start before 2024 and God knows what would happen between now and then.

On top of the aircraft itself there are too many uncertainties like the regulatory approval or result of the negotiations with the pilots.

Are they going to impose some industrial risk-taking to Airbus in term of design and manufacturing? I do not know, but in my opinion the timing is extremely tight and it is unlikely to be achieved.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 11:50 am

JustSomeDood wrote:
Implying QF have actually decided to go ahead with project sunrise, and that actual orders have been announced, neither of which actually happened.


I think that is an entirely factual comment. The press release to me indicated they had a few more hoops to jump through before the project gets a go ahead. Those hoops like the aircraft selection are all part of the business case and risk mitigation.

I cannot see an order being made until those issues are known (not necessarily having to be fully resolved) and the board has voted on it.
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 12:07 pm

If the pilots can't reach an agreement (it sounds like the regulator is close), I can't see the aircraft being ordered. The whole thing will be shelved for 5years till a 350neo is released and QFi won't grow

Qantas has plenty of cheaper 787 options outstanding if it's 1-stopping aircraft they want - but you're still competing with 15+ airlines on both the LHR and JFK routes, so at best I'd see a few more 787 options converted to replace older 332/333s in the next few years
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 12:29 pm

scbriml wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Good for Boeing for pulling out of this charade.


Boeing didn’t “pull out”, Qantas selected Airbus.



No no, we should rephrase it to this:
In Project Sunrise, Boeing got pushed into the sunset by Airbus. :mrgreen: :bigthumbsup:
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flee
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 12:36 pm

scbriml wrote:
JustSomeDood wrote:
scbriml wrote:
And both OEMs returned updated bids. Let’s not pretend that didn’t happen. :sarcastic:

Qantas has selected and publicly announced the A350-1000 as the plane that will operate Project Sunrise flights. The decision has been made.


Implying QF have actually decided to go ahead with project sunrise, and that actual orders have been announced, neither of which actually happened.


I never implied either of those things. :shakehead:

But there’s no denying that Qantas has selected the A350-1000 as the plane to operate Project Sunrise, if they go ahead. That has been clear since Qantas made the announcement.

I’m really not sure why some people seem to be having so much issue with Qantas selection. :scratchchin:

Project Sunrise is more than just aircraft selection - if it was, there would be no need for it to be a project. There are lots of to do items on this project and choosing the right aircraft is one of them. So the project still has some way to go.

However, since QF announced the aircraft selection and has apparently agreed to some terms with Airbus, we might be able to imply some sort of LoI or MoA was signed to confirm their interest to order the aircraft when the final project decision is made in March 2020.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 12:36 pm

Can somebody explain what's the hold up with the pilots? Is it an overall labor negotiation or just for PS flights?
 
olle
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 12:43 pm

CraigAnderson wrote:
FRA will join LHR and CDG as a third European destination for Project Sunrise, according to AJ.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... -frankfurt


This is quit interesting... I wonder when EU change how many trips now going to London will now be moved to Paris or Frankfurt?

In a few years from now Neo treatment will change the calculation even better.. The A350 will be able to do this without extra fuel tanks.

What will be the effect on ME3 long term?
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 1:06 pm

olle wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
FRA will join LHR and CDG as a third European destination for Project Sunrise, according to AJ.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... -frankfurt


This is quit interesting... I wonder when EU change how many trips now going to London will now be moved to Paris or Frankfurt?

In a few years from now Neo treatment will change the calculation even better.. The A350 will be able to do this without extra fuel tanks.

What will be the effect on ME3 long term?


Depends. Right now the only EU airline into Australia is BA. And that is only one flight a day. VS gave up the route a while back.

I don't see the ME3 hurting that much as they already are. Didn't EY deploy one of their 787-10s on a flight recently??
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 1:21 pm

DCA350 wrote:
Can somebody explain what's the hold up with the pilots? Is it an overall labor negotiation or just for PS flights?


Good question.

As far as I understood, the QANTAS boss requests "30% better efficiency" from the crews. That means 30% less pay / benefits or 30% more work for the same pay / benefits. Or a mixture of both. In each case, nothing, what an employee wants.

We are talking here about the longest commercial flight, which goes to the limits of workload and fatigue to the crew. And a crew willing to work under those conditions is expected to work for 30% less? I would expect 30% more. What am I missing? What is the QANTAS boss smoking?

Or do all the PS crew members get a small golden "Project Sunrise" badge and it is expected to work 30% more for the honour and the glory?
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 1:27 pm

DCA350 wrote:
Can somebody explain what's the hold up with the pilots? Is it an overall labor negotiation or just for PS flights?


The way I read it was an increase in pay of 3% but to be common type rated on the A350 and A330.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 2:07 pm

zeke wrote:
Revelation wrote:
There's that sticky matter of getting the pilots to cough up 30% "productivity gains" and the wait for the regulators to decide what the rest requirements are.

I suspect QF could gain most of their productivity gains by having the A330/A350 as a common pilot pool for rostering purposes, and as a common pay scale. This will require pilots to accept significant concessions (mainly based upon hard earned seniority lists) as the A330 currently sits behind the A380 and 747 pay scales, and there will need to have concessions for pilots moving from the 747/A380 to displace pilots already on the A330. They made similar seniority list concessions for the 787 for pilots to come over from the A380 and 747.

It will be interesting to see how this works out. I haven't read anything in the aviation media hinting on how the pilots feel about this kind of concession. I have read that the 787 concession was done when the company was under duress financially and some pilots regret making such a concession. I'm having a hard time seeing what would motivate the concession in the current climate unless the pilots think they need to do so to provide for a significantly more secure future, but that doesn't seem to be the case from what I can tell. I think the trip will initially have some novelty, but once that wears off it will be an uncomfortable slog that will test the crew's stamina crossing so many time zones in one trip. I'd be surprised if they weren't asking for a premium to do the service rather than providing a concession.
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 2:23 pm

Gemuser wrote:
As Zeke says this does not look right to me also. Apart from the points raised by Zeke you have ignored QFs LHR slot times. From memory the earliest departure slot time for QF at LHR is 12:00 or there abouts, which would put your into SYD about 04 :30 which as well as being commerically unattractive is totally illegal under Commonwealth law.
It seems to me that no timetable would allow the use of less than 5 point something frames TAKING INTO ACCOUNT AIRPORT LIMITATIONS! If anyone an do it I would be most interested to see it!


You need to provide some evidence rather than just saying "doesn’t look right to me" and expecting that to be the end of the matter. I’ve provided my proposed timings which fit easily within the various restrictions/limitations, now why don’t you lay out your timings to prove that they are wrong?

A 1200 departure from LHR gets you to SYD at 1900, similar to the old QF32 timings. A late-night departure gets you to SYD before the curfew which is why there is no other option but to depart LHR in the late-morning or lunchtime at the latest. I acknowledged that there would need to be changes made to the slots at LHR to enable both SYD/MEL to operate at this time of day however QF has been able to make changes before so I am confident that this would be possible.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 2:34 pm

Revelation wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
VV wrote:
No. According to flightglobal Emirates still retains 25 777-8 on the order.

https://www.flightglobal.com/airlines/e ... 57.article

Emirates originally ordered 35 778s but it is unclear if this mix has changed as Boeing don't clearly show the split between 779s and 778s. By coincidence, Emirates just cancelled 35 777X and lots of people think that will be 778s. The only other customer is QR who have already indicated they are looking at swapping their 778 orders to 787s. If these things happen, the pax 778 will be cancelled.

If you open the link you find:
While the rejig means a total of 35 777Xs have either been cut or effectively converted to options, Emirates insists that these do not equate to the 35 777-8s included in the original July 2014 order.

So what "people think" is being refuted by the ones who "know" rather than "think".


What "people think" seem to be supported by what they find when they know how to use the Boeing orders page . . . :

https://www.boeing.com/commercial/#/orders-deliveries
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 3:21 pm

Scotron12 wrote:
olle wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
FRA will join LHR and CDG as a third European destination for Project Sunrise, according to AJ.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... -frankfurt


This is quit interesting... I wonder when EU change how many trips now going to London will now be moved to Paris or Frankfurt?

In a few years from now Neo treatment will change the calculation even better.. The A350 will be able to do this without extra fuel tanks.

What will be the effect on ME3 long term?


Depends. Right now the only EU airline into Australia is BA. And that is only one flight a day. VS gave up the route a while back.

I don't see the ME3 hurting that much as they already are. Didn't EY deploy one of their 787-10s on a flight recently??


The biggest loser out all of this will be Emirates. Both EK and EY have reduced capacity into Australia over the past 12-18 months. Having watched PER-LHR closely there has been an overall shift of travelling patterns. Since PER-LHR started the traditional connection points of SIN and HKG and to a lesser extent KUL and BKK have come back in favour compared with the likes of the ME3. EY ended up leaving the PER market while EK has cut it down to daily except for Dec/Jan where they run 2 daily. QR on the other hand is the only one of the ME3 to have grown in the market. Look at the departure board the past 2 nights there is a clear evidence EK is suffering. Over the past 2 days alone EK has gone out with over 500 empty seats yet we are less than 2 weeks before Christmas and in previous years these flights would have been full to the gills meanwhile looking at the likes of SQ and CX they are going out full, also what is telling is both these carriers have increased capacity by adding larger aircraft in recent months. There has also been an increased focus from Qantas on SIN, not only does QF other LHR flight goes through SIN they now have codeshare agreements with AF, KL and LO and there has also been AY which has been there for a long time. While SYD is a different market the likes of EK are still going to be affected by these Project Sunrise flights, sure those who want cheaper flights will be attracted to the ME3 but they will lose out on the higher yielding ones
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astuteman
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 3:41 pm

VV wrote:
The production slots must be secured and if ever the decision is to go ahead with the Project Sunrise then there are several steps that need to be done on the aircraft side.
  • Airbus will have to discuss with the regulatory authorities on the certification basis (6 months)
  • Design of the modified system: plumbing, fuel pumps, fuel system logic, refueling panel, Flight Management Computer and software, etc.
  • RFP with the suppliers of the additional fuel capacity, actual production
  • all the documentations like Weight and Balance Manual, AFM and so on and so forth
I must have forgotten other details. In essence, three years lead time to EIS is in my opinion very tight.

I expect the Project Sunrise would not start before 2024 and God knows what would happen between now and then.

On top of the aircraft itself there are too many uncertainties like the regulatory approval or result of the negotiations with the pilots.

Are they going to impose some industrial risk-taking to Airbus in term of design and manufacturing? I do not know, but in my opinion the timing is extremely tight and it is unlikely to be achieved.


Am I to assume that the only company that can work on projects prior to their implementation are Boeing with the NMA?

We are a very long way into the selection process.
Airbus will already have a lot of initial design verification work done in order to offer the aircraft and agree contractual terms.
And I'm willing to bet as part of that process they will already have presented to the regulatory authorities and agreed the route to certification.

I know my company would, and my company used to have VERY close links to Airbus

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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 3:56 pm

DCA350 wrote:
Can somebody explain what's the hold up with the pilots? Is it an overall labor negotiation or just for PS flights?


This is a very interesting question.

If the request for 30% of productivity improvement is for all pilots, but the management ties it with the Project Sunrise then obviously the pilot association would just refuse and the Project Sunrise would fail.

If the 30% productivity is requested exclusively for pilots who will be on the Project Sunrise then most probably Qantas would not have any volunteer to fly the Project Sunrise.

It looks like the management is trying to find someone to blame if the Project Sunrise does not go ahead.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 4:00 pm

astuteman wrote:
..
Am I to assume that the only company that can work on projects prior to their implementation are Boeing with the NMA?

We are a very long way into the selection process.
Airbus will already have a lot of initial design verification work done in order to offer the aircraft and agree contractual terms.
And I'm willing to bet as part of that process they will already have presented to the regulatory authorities and agreed the route to certification.

I know my company would, and my company used to have VERY close links to Airbus
...


How detailed is the design so far? Have they agreed on the certification basis with the authorities? I do not know. Those are administration and I do not think administrations go fast.

Sincerely, I do not think the Project Sunrise can start in 2023 if the go-ahead decision is given only in March 2020.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 4:20 pm

DCA350 wrote:
Can somebody explain what's the hold up with the pilots? Is it an overall labor negotiation or just for PS flights?


It’s a chicken and egg scenario. You don’t go around adding aircraft types to the EBA unless there is a plan to operate them, and until you know know what size aircraft theY don’t know what pay rate to pitch them at.

The current pay scales are based on the size of aircraft, A380 pilots most expensive and 787 cheapest. The ability to do such long flights is not in the agreement either.

Once the agreement between the parties is made, it goes to the fair work commission to become a legally binding enterprise bargaining agreement (EBA).

Now they selected the platform they can negotiate the rates with the unions. I think it will be quickly presented, I think the company has been working on both scenarios behind the scenes. It possibly also become part of the aircraft selection process as well in modelling crew costs.
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 4:35 pm

VV wrote:
How detailed is the design so far? Have they agreed on the certification basis with the authorities? I do not know. Those are administration and I do not think administrations go fast.


Airbus already has a certified wide body ACT, and they have other wide body STCs which can be the basis for this. They also have recent certification process they used on the A321.

FYI they don’t need an ACT for all PS routes, and on the longer routes probably just in one direction.

As for weights they have a few years of actual in service load spectrum. Often the assumed design load spectrum is more conservative than what the aircraft actually see. That alone could be the basis for a MTOW increase.
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 4:41 pm

zeke wrote:
VV wrote:
How detailed is the design so far? Have they agreed on the certification basis with the authorities? I do not know. Those are administration and I do not think administrations go fast.


Airbus already has a certified wide body ACT, and they have other wide body STCs which can be the basis for this. They also have recent certification process they used on the A321.

FYI they don’t need an ACT for all PS routes, and on the longer routes probably just in one direction.

As for weights they have a few years of actual in service load spectrum. Often the assumed design load spectrum is more conservative than what the aircraft actually see. That alone could be the basis for a MTOW increase.


It does not matter if they already certified other fuel tanks like the one on the A340-500 for Singapore Airline ULR.

The point is that they need to start the process all over again for THIS aircraft. I think three years to do it is too short and 2023 seems to be too close for the EIS of the Project Sunrise.

I do not have any concern about the MTOW increase, it is much shorter to do than the additional fuel capacity.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 4:54 pm

VV wrote:
The point is that they need to start the process all over again for THIS aircraft. I think three years to do it is too short and 2023 seems to be too close for the EIS of the Project Sunrise.


It’s like adding a Gogo 2Ku antenna to a new type. The antenna is already certified, you have already figured out how to connect it up on other types, going to a new type the process is to modify the previous work to fit the A350.

They already have a certified wide body ACT that was first used on the A300/A310, then ported to the A330/A340. I think they will use the same tank and plum it into the centre tank like on the others.
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astuteman
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 5:03 pm

VV wrote:
astuteman wrote:
..
Am I to assume that the only company that can work on projects prior to their implementation are Boeing with the NMA?

We are a very long way into the selection process.
Airbus will already have a lot of initial design verification work done in order to offer the aircraft and agree contractual terms.
And I'm willing to bet as part of that process they will already have presented to the regulatory authorities and agreed the route to certification.

I know my company would, and my company used to have VERY close links to Airbus
...


How detailed is the design so far? Have they agreed on the certification basis with the authorities? I do not know. Those are administration and I do not think administrations go fast.

Sincerely, I do not think the Project Sunrise can start in 2023 if the go-ahead decision is given only in March 2020.


Administration?
It is Engineering!
Understanding the evidence that will have to be provided and the requirements it will be assessed against is absolutely Engineering, and a very necessary part of scoping the work that has to be done in order to achieve the objective.
Spent my life doing this type of stuff.

PS has bigger hurdles than this...

Rgds
 
qf002
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 5:07 pm

VV wrote:
Sincerely, I do not think the Project Sunrise can start in 2023 if the go-ahead decision is given only in March 2020.


It doesn't matter what you think.

Airbus has committed to a 2023 delivery and I'm sure knows more about what they are doing than you do.
 
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DL747400
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 5:29 pm

keesje wrote:
Risk. The A350-1000 is still a very good idea if Sunrise falls in the water.


I'm fairly certain that I would not have chosen those words when describing an airline project in which aircraft will be used in long haul operations, a good portion of which will be over water.

VV wrote:
DCA350 wrote:
Can somebody explain what's the hold up with the pilots? Is it an overall labor negotiation or just for PS flights?


This is a very interesting question. If the request for 30% of productivity improvement is for all pilots, but the management ties it with the Project Sunrise then obviously the pilot association would just refuse and the Project Sunrise would fail. If the 30% productivity is requested exclusively for pilots who will be on the Project Sunrise then most probably Qantas would not have any volunteer to fly the Project Sunrise. It looks like the management is trying to find someone to blame if the Project Sunrise does not go ahead.


Why should any QF pilots or cabin crew (or any other QF employees for that matter) be asked to work harder for less money in order to make the PS numbers work? It is sounding more and more to many observers as if this whole PS ULH concept is not anywhere near as financially viable as has been stated by QF. Maybe QF should not operate in ULH if the entire operating cost structure needs to be realigned in order to make it work?
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HM7
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 6:51 pm

Can someone explain to me what “30% more productivity” means?
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 7:05 pm

HM7 wrote:
Can someone explain to me what “30% more productivity” means?


What do you think it means?
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qf002
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 7:13 pm

HM7 wrote:
Can someone explain to me what “30% more productivity” means?


As I understand there are two key issues:

1. Extending duty periods to avoid overtime clauses kicking in on every flight (this represents the majority of the savings). The existing legacy contract doesn't account for such long flights.
2. Making the contract cheaper to manage.
 
DCA350
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 7:13 pm

zeke wrote:
VV wrote:
The point is that they need to start the process all over again for THIS aircraft. I think three years to do it is too short and 2023 seems to be too close for the EIS of the Project Sunrise.


It’s like adding a Gogo 2Ku antenna to a new type. The antenna is already certified, you have already figured out how to connect it up on other types, going to a new type the process is to modify the previous work to fit the A350.

They already have a certified wide body ACT that was first used on the A300/A310, then ported to the A330/A340. I think they will use the same tank and plum it into the centre tank like on the others.


Do you think it will be a standard ACT? Or something more akin to what they are planning with the XLR?
 
smartplane
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 7:27 pm

zeke wrote:
VV wrote:
The point is that they need to start the process all over again for THIS aircraft. I think three years to do it is too short and 2023 seems to be too close for the EIS of the Project Sunrise.


It’s like adding a Gogo 2Ku antenna to a new type. The antenna is already certified, you have already figured out how to connect it up on other types, going to a new type the process is to modify the previous work to fit the A350.

They already have a certified wide body ACT that was first used on the A300/A310, then ported to the A330/A340. I think they will use the same tank and plum it into the centre tank like on the others.

That's how it worked. But the MAX darkness, already casting deep shadows over X assumptions, documentation and certification, may mean the sun has finally set on cross model feature approvals.
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 8:03 pm

I would be amazed if Airbus and EASA have not already established the certification process and timeline to QF's satisfaction
 
trex8
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 8:38 pm

Is there that much more certification needed than what went into the higher weight A359s or the A359ULR with the fuel tank changes??
 
DavidByrne
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 8:41 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
I would be amazed if Airbus and EASA have not already established the certification process and timeline to QF's satisfaction

Why would QF need to be "satisfied" with the certification process? Surely such things should be entirely in the hands of the regulators, rather than being subject to the "satisfaction" of operators? Or is that not how it works with Airbus and Australia?
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 8:45 pm

DavidByrne wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
I would be amazed if Airbus and EASA have not already established the certification process and timeline to QF's satisfaction

Why would QF need to be "satisfied" with the certification process? Surely such things should be entirely in the hands of the regulators, rather than being subject to the "satisfaction" of operators? Or is that not how it works with Airbus and Australia?


.........QF are sufficiently satisfied about the expected certification PROCESS and TIMELINE to have made their selection.
 
VV
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 9:19 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
I would be amazed if Airbus and EASA have not already established the certification process and timeline to QF's satisfaction


Perhaps they started already, but it takes time to write down the rules and to agree on the compliance demonstration.

I seriously doubt the DID of Project Sunrise can be in 2023.

It is only slightly longer than three years for now. So we do not need to wait too much. My gut feel tells me Project Sunrise will start later than in 2023 of the decision in March is to ahead.
 
HM7
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 9:26 pm

qf002 wrote:
HM7 wrote:
Can someone explain to me what “30% more productivity” means?


As I understand there are two key issues:

1. Extending duty periods to avoid overtime clauses kicking in on every flight (this represents the majority of the savings). The existing legacy contract doesn't account for such long flights.
2. Making the contract cheaper to manage.

Thank you
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Baldr
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 10:09 pm

VV wrote:
zeke wrote:
VV wrote:
How detailed is the design so far? Have they agreed on the certification basis with the authorities? I do not know. Those are administration and I do not think administrations go fast.


Airbus already has a certified wide body ACT, and they have other wide body STCs which can be the basis for this. They also have recent certification process they used on the A321.

FYI they don’t need an ACT for all PS routes, and on the longer routes probably just in one direction.

As for weights they have a few years of actual in service load spectrum. Often the assumed design load spectrum is more conservative than what the aircraft actually see. That alone could be the basis for a MTOW increase.


It does not matter if they already certified other fuel tanks like the one on the A340-500 for Singapore Airline ULR.

The point is that they need to start the process all over again for THIS aircraft. I think three years to do it is too short and 2023 seems to be too close for the EIS of the Project Sunrise.

I do not have any concern about the MTOW increase, it is much shorter to do than the additional fuel capacity.


Let's see, Airbus launched the development of the A330-200 in November 1995. First flight was on August 13 1997, with certification and first customer deliveries in April 1998 -- that's 2 1/2 years from launch to EIS for a major derivative of the A330-300.

Hence, any reasonably competent observer of this industry would conclude that installing an extra fuel tank in the A350-1000 and slightly increase the maximum takeoff weight to deliver the performance required for Sunrise routes, is a much smaller undertaking than what the development of the A330-200 was.

Yet you manage, unsurprisingly, to vastly exaggerate the technical and certification issues involved with integrating the extra fuel tank into the A350-1000. Who would have thought that.....

Of course, in your "famous Bermuda Triangle" you have the A350 boxed in by the 787-10, 777-9 and the terminally ill 777-8. According to you, "the threat" from the 787-10, 777-9 and 777-9 to the A350-1000 is more than just a sandwich strategy, but rather a “treble trouble” strategy -- LOL!

How then could Qantas choose the A350-1000. That wasn't supposed to happen and the A350-1000 should just have "vanished" in your "Bermuda Triangle," right?
 
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Grizzly410
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 10:55 pm

Baldr wrote:
VV wrote:
zeke wrote:

Airbus already has a certified wide body ACT, and they have other wide body STCs which can be the basis for this. They also have recent certification process they used on the A321.

FYI they don’t need an ACT for all PS routes, and on the longer routes probably just in one direction.

As for weights they have a few years of actual in service load spectrum. Often the assumed design load spectrum is more conservative than what the aircraft actually see. That alone could be the basis for a MTOW increase.


It does not matter if they already certified other fuel tanks like the one on the A340-500 for Singapore Airline ULR.

The point is that they need to start the process all over again for THIS aircraft. I think three years to do it is too short and 2023 seems to be too close for the EIS of the Project Sunrise.

I do not have any concern about the MTOW increase, it is much shorter to do than the additional fuel capacity.


Let's see, Airbus launched the development of the A330-200 in November 1995. First flight was on August 13 1997, with certification and first customer deliveries in April 1998 -- that's 2 1/2 years from launch to EIS for a major derivative of the A330-300.

Hence, any reasonably competent observer of this industry would conclude that installing an extra fuel tank in the A350-1000 and slightly increase the maximum takeoff weight to deliver the performance required for Sunrise routes, is a much smaller undertaking than what the development of the A330-200 was.

Yet you manage, unsurprisingly, to vastly exaggerate the technical and certification issues involved with integrating the extra fuel tank into the A350-1000. Who would have thought that.....



:checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark:

A cargo tank Mod + MTOW increase, that's it. Of all the challenges facing Project Sunrise these aircraft mod are of the easiest and cheapest (for Airbus, because once sold it's at good profit for sure) to resolve. And 3 years are enough to not need to be quick.

When the aircraft selection was on, it wasn't even a problem a huge new STC was needed to be certified for the Boeing offer, but now we know it's the A350-1000 a simple technical MOD + MTOW increase seems to be a big issue. Go figure.
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travelasia
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 11:24 pm

Grizzly410 wrote:
Baldr wrote:
VV wrote:

[...deleted or readability...]
Hence, any reasonably competent observer of this industry would conclude that installing an extra fuel tank in the A350-1000 and slightly increase the maximum takeoff weight to deliver the performance required for Sunrise routes, is a much smaller undertaking than what the development of the A330-200 was.

Yet you manage, unsurprisingly, to vastly exaggerate the technical and certification issues involved with integrating the extra fuel tank into the A350-1000. Who would have thought that.....




A cargo tank Mod + MTOW increase, that's it. Of all the challenges facing Project Sunrise these aircraft mod are of the easiest and cheapest (for Airbus, because once sold it's at good profit for sure) to resolve. And 3 years are enough to not need to be quick.


Airbus quite obviously has looked into increasing the MTOW independent of Sunrise before:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airbus-a-idUSKCN0W51ZW

They apparently have marketed adding a tank and two MTOW increases (one to 319t, and one more after that) to at least to one other airline:
https://www.flightglobal.com/programmes ... 48.article

So Airbus has had quite some time to figure it out, and while there was an article recently suggesting there will be no increase above 319t, I interpret that "and slightly increase the maximum takeoff weight" from the Qantas PR as meaning "on top of to the 319t scheduled for 2020" - my guess is, that Airbus have already started with designing a while ago. While the extra tank might be a very small niche, extra payload/range could be interesting to quite a few airlines.
 
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zeke
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 11:25 pm

qf002 wrote:
1. Extending duty periods to avoid overtime clauses kicking in on every flight (this represents the majority of the savings). The existing legacy contract doesn't account for such long flights.


I think the overtime threshold is very low, I think every 744 long haul sector triggered overtime, it was something like anything above 8-10 hours.
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zeke
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sat Dec 14, 2019 11:30 pm

DCA350 wrote:
Do you think it will be a standard ACT? Or something more akin to what they are planning with the XLR?


I think it will be a standard ACT, and I think with improvements in the pipeline the ACT would be a temporary measure.

Need to remember this is not too different to the 744ER, QF were the only airline to operate the passenger version, that was for 6 frames from memory.
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RJMAZ
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sun Dec 15, 2019 1:47 am

trex8 wrote:
Is there that much more certification needed than what went into the higher weight A359s or the A359ULR with the fuel tank changes??

The A350-900 simply filled the existing tanks to a higher level. Minor mods were required. The A350-1000ULR needs a massive capacity increase that is much more difficult.

RJMAZ wrote:
At the 319,000kg raised MTOW the A350-1000 needs the fuel capacity raised to around 175,000litres. It could then do SYD-LHR with around 28,000kg which is excellent.


A350-900 140,795 litres
A350-1000 - 158,791 litres
A350-900ULR - 166,480 litres
A350-1000ULR estimate 175,000 litres

DCA350 wrote:
Do you think it will be a standard ACT? Or something more akin to what they are planning with the XLR?

It is unclear about the fill level of the A350-1000 and if the capacity can be simply raised to the A350-900ULR as a starting point. This would determine the number of ACT's required. I highly doubt they would make a more complex XLR style capacity increase for one customer.

Another issue is the weight limit in the cargo hold. The max loaded weight of a LD3 container or standard pallet is roughly half the floor weight of the ACT when filled. Did Airbus overbuild the cargo floor to handle twice the floor weight? It is highly likely the floor will need strengthening. If I was Airbus CEO I would accept no profit on this deal to add another straw on the 777-8 camels back.

The A350 will then be the only aircraft that can fly 8000+nm and they will get the profit back ten times over.
 
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zeke
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Re: Updated: Qantas picks A350-1000 as preferred platform for Project Sunrise; Final decision due March 2020

Sun Dec 15, 2019 2:13 am

RJMAZ wrote:
Another issue is the weight limit in the cargo hold. The max loaded weight of a LD3 container or standard pallet is roughly half the floor weight of the ACT when filled. Did Airbus overbuild the cargo floor to handle twice the floor weight? It is highly likely the floor will need strengthening.


The way these ACT STCs work is the frames under the ACT are modified to handle the weight and also for the plumbing and electrics, that’s the way it’s been on the A300/A310, A340, A319, A321, and even the 777. The remainder of the hold remains unchanged as the ACT empty is only around 700 kg and gets loaded and unloaded like a normal container.

Airbus has already got this sorted, I have seen CATIA renderings in a presentation pitched at a different evolution on the A350 that is coming. What QF is getting something akin of a 787-9, there is something akin to the 787-10 in the works, ie keeping fuel and weights the same and making the fuselage longer. That evolution has been discussed on here a number of times.
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