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ChrisNH38
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:25 am

I could be way off base, but how could they do these test flights with 787-9s and THEN decide to go with some other plane altogether? Seems 99% unlikely.
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:38 am

ChrisNH38 wrote:
I could be way off base, but how could they do these test flights with 787-9s and THEN decide to go with some other plane altogether? Seems 99% unlikely.


The test flights aren’t costing QF a dime for an aircraft which normally ferries to Sydney OR Melbourne empty are being used for research / Free PR.

2ndly the B789 can’t carry a full payload hence there are roughly 40 pax including crew on these flights.

QF shares currently at $7.16.


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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:43 am

tealnz wrote:
The numbers don't add up? You're telling me no airline ever negotiates again after BAFO?? Customers won't pay a premium? Look at PER-LHR again. Regulators need to sign off? Obviously. Pilots? Ditto.

If Airbus/Boeing thought AJ was jerking them round I think we'd know about it. We are not seeing any evidence of it.

Customers always demand more, a price reduction, better schedule, or stricter penalty clauses after BAFO.

If regulators or pilots impose egregious terms, it is over. It is making a business case.

Customers pay well to bypass intermediate stops.

This is more than a few routes. This is a fleet replan. For example, I expect fewer seats to LAX and more to DFW.

Best not to rush this.

The issue is QF can wait. A long time...

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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:53 am

tealnz wrote:
You're telling me no airline ever negotiates again after BAFO??

No, but I don't think I'd expect the vendors to concede much if anything after BAFO.

There's a point at which you just aren't willing to make more concessions, and I would not be surprised if A or B or both were at that point.

Regulators need to sign off? Obviously. Pilots? Ditto.

AJ didn't say they need to sign off, he said they need to make concessions, IMO a very different statement.

Personally I don't see why they would be motivated to do so.
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Wed Nov 20, 2019 4:25 am

Revelation wrote:
Regulators need to sign off? Obviously. Pilots? Ditto.

AJ didn't say they need to sign off, he said they need to make concessions, IMO a very different statement.

Personally I don't see why they would be motivated to do so.


The regulators absolutely need to sign off.

CASA currently do not have regulations in place for a duty day that would cover SYD-LHR with four crew. Qantas is banking on them permitting that in the future.

The majority of posters on this thread seem to have completely missed this point, but this is the research behind the "research" flights. Qantas is seeking to prove their fatigue modelling to CASA so that they can receive regulatory sign-off. That is why the crew are wearing heart beat monitors etc. Sure, the passengers are mostly there for publicity, but the pilots are actually been assessed to measure their fatigue.

CASA and duty day regulations aside, I agree that the pilots hold the cards here, and can't see why they would make productivity and/or salary concessions.
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Wed Nov 20, 2019 8:18 am

Revelation wrote:
tealnz wrote:
Regulators need to sign off? Obviously. Pilots? Ditto.

AJ didn't say they need to sign off, he said they need to make concessions, IMO a very different statement.

Personally I don't see why they would be motivated to do so.


It seems the pilots would have Qantas over a barrel. Joyce is looking for a 30% productivity improvement from them to operate the route. 30%! Would you do 30% more work for the same money?
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Wed Nov 20, 2019 8:51 am

Could it be that the 789 performed better on the test flight than anticipated. A shrink of the 789 to the 788 length would greatly increase its range. This may be a change in the RFP coming up to a smaller number of passengers. Didn't Qantas and the pilots agree back in 2007 on 787 pay that was in Qantas favor.
 
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Wed Nov 20, 2019 9:07 am

Where did the 30% figure come from? And what is it based on?
QF doesn't have an aircraft that can currently fly for that long, and size wise its probably going to only have the same number of seats as the 332.
 
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Wed Nov 20, 2019 1:50 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
The regulators absolutely need to sign off.

CASA currently do not have regulations in place for a duty day that would cover SYD-LHR with four crew. Qantas is banking on them permitting that in the future.

The majority of posters on this thread seem to have completely missed this point, but this is the research behind the "research" flights. Qantas is seeking to prove their fatigue modelling to CASA so that they can receive regulatory sign-off. That is why the crew are wearing heart beat monitors etc. Sure, the passengers are mostly there for publicity, but the pilots are actually been assessed to measure their fatigue.

CASA and duty day regulations aside, I agree that the pilots hold the cards here, and can't see why they would make productivity and/or salary concessions.

The article said:

"We have to get the premium from our customers … we have to get in the position where the manufacturers contribute their contribution, we have to get the regulator on side and we have to get the pilots on side," Mr Joyce said.

I agree he asked the regulators to get on side but the tone of the article was that he needed concessions to make that happen.

I'm not sure if that is the true state of affairs with regard to the regulators, or if approval is pretty much pro forma.

moa999 wrote:
Where did the 30% figure come from? And what is it based on?

TFA ( https://www.smh.com.au/business/compani ... 53c02.html ) said:

The airline says it also needs pilots to agree to a pay deal that would deliver "productivity improvements" of about 30 per cent, which are currently under negotiation.

We shall see how this goes.
Last edited by Revelation on Wed Nov 20, 2019 1:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Wed Nov 20, 2019 1:57 pm

To restate what many had opined from the very beginning of this charade: This was nothing more than a huge publicity stunt, resulting in a massive waste of time and money. At least QF is trying to find a way to save face by using the distraction of officially "rejecting" both A and B offers. The reality is that 19-20 hours of nonstop air travel is too long unless you are in business class and have a lie flat seat. The business case continues to come up short. Reason and humanity prevail, at least for now. End of story.
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:55 pm

I think for the third test PS flight QF should have a third set of the flight crew. Monitor their performance. Also, simulate a diversion.

I sincerely doubt CASA is going rubber stamp 20-24 hour flight duties. Without union blessing, the crew will file ASRs after every flight (yes, there is a precedence and CASA was indirectly involved, not ULH)

These issues should be addressed prior to signing a niche plane order.
 
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Wed Nov 20, 2019 8:04 pm

https://thepointsguy.com/news/qantas-re ... t-sunrise/


Qantas asks Airbus and Boeing to go back to the drawing board and make offer airplanes than were previously offered, presumably the A350-1000ULR mk1 and 777-8x couldn’t meet the mission parameters.
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Wed Nov 20, 2019 8:15 pm

Web500sjc wrote:
https://thepointsguy.com/news/qantas-rejects-airbus-and-boeing-offers-for-project-sunrise/

Qantas asks Airbus and Boeing to go back to the drawing board and make offer airplanes than were previously offered, presumably the A350-1000ULR mk1 and 777-8x couldn’t meet the mission parameters.


The mission parameters are not "a full load" because neither of them can do it even with (reasonable) modifications. As the article references, Joyce wants a better price and guarantees about how the frames would perform in a non-Project Sunrise role should the service eventually be cancelled and the frames put into non-ULH routes.
 
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Wed Nov 20, 2019 11:35 pm

Almost sounds as if he wants financial guarantees, not just performance guarantees, from the manufacturers.

The future of the project now looks to me like new-engine variants of the A350 and 787. That probably means no orders before 2022 or so and no EIS before the late 2020s.

Imagine if the 787 they had used for the flight had engines that used 10% less fuel - the aircraft likely could have carried another 20+ t of payload with the same fuel load it actually used, getting it to a perfectly reasonable passenger load for a 787-9.
 
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Wed Nov 20, 2019 11:39 pm

seabosdca wrote:
Almost sounds as if he wants financial guarantees, not just performance guarantees, from the manufacturers.

The future of the project now looks to me like new-engine variants of the A350 and 787. That probably means no orders before 2022 or so and no EIS before the late 2020s.

Imagine if the 787 they had used for the flight had engines that used 10% less fuel - the aircraft likely could have carried another 20+ t of payload with the same fuel load it actually used, getting it to a perfectly reasonable passenger load for a 787-9.


If it does end up turning into A350neo vs its 787 counterpart, it is Boeing’s order to lose IMO.
 
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Wed Nov 20, 2019 11:55 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
Could it be that the 789 performed better on the test flight than anticipated. A shrink of the 789 to the 788 length would greatly increase its range. This may be a change in the RFP coming up to a smaller number of passengers. Didn't Qantas and the pilots agree back in 2007 on 787 pay that was in Qantas favor.

I do see a huge advantage of a smaller project sunrise aircraft. It could allow both Melbourne and Sydney to operate routes to 3-4 European cities.

A 787 proposal would mean Boeing has thrown in the towel with the 777-8. This could be because the VLA market is shrinking quicker than even Boeing anticipated. Boeing did predict the shrinking VLA market very well.

The current 787-8 at 228t can do 20,000lb to 9500nm at maximum fuel capacity. A MTOW bump to 238t would allow 30,000lb of payload to 9250nm at the current max fuel capacity. No aux tanks required and it would be enough range at the expected Qantas density layout. That would do Sydney to London comfortably. A MTOW any higher than 238t would then require extra fuel tanks. With 10t of extra fuel capacity and a 254t MTOW it could allow 50,000lb of payload on the route.

Alternatively the 787-9 already flew the route around 20t below MTOW. Fuel capacity is maxed out so the only way to fly that distance is to fly with a very light payload. If the 787-9 had 10t of extra fuel capacity then it could carry 10t of extra passengers to hit the 254t MTOW. This brings the passenger load up to around 150. Fairly decent but the current 787-9's have 236 seats.

The big rumour is from the Air New Zealand thread is Boeing might be producing a 787-9 with a MTOW of 260t. This 6t increase on MTOW would be theory allow 40 extra passengers on the project sunrise route. That would be approx 190 passengers. This I believe is the front runner as it would have high commonality with the current 787-9's.

If I was Qantas CEO I would have already selected the A350-900ULR and it would have been doing the LHR-SYD route for the last 12 months. It can do the route with a typical Qantas density which would be around 200-220 seats on a A350-900ULR.
 
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Thu Nov 21, 2019 12:36 am

The more I think about it, the more I find it puzzling that a high-MTOW A350-1000 variant couldn't make the grade. I wonder if we'll ever hear anything about why. It shouldn't have a problem carrying a good payload, it should be easily convertible back to a regular A350-1000 configuration when necessary, so future performance risk should be low.

Once it became clear that Boeing was pitching half-empty 777-9s, I assumed Airbus had this in the bag.
 
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Thu Nov 21, 2019 1:24 am

I think whatever is ordered, it's only a temporary (5 years) product for the route, as both offers are compromises and possibly moreso than QF had initially hoped for.

On the Airbus side.
A 350neo would replace the 350, with the initial 350s cascaded to replace 380s/333s

On the Boeing side.
The 777-8X (if it happens) or 787neo replaces the 9X, with the 9X the best replacement for the 380s.

If course in 5-10 years, Elon Musk may totally change the dynamics of long-haul travel with his reusable Starship.
 
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Thu Nov 21, 2019 3:26 am

seabosdca wrote:
The more I think about it, the more I find it puzzling that a high-MTOW A350-1000 variant couldn't make the grade.

The answer is pretty simple.

The A350-1000 does not have the fuel capacity required (158,000 litres). The biggest issue will be the centre wingbox design might make it very difficult to fit auxilary fuel tanks in the cargo hold. The fuel capacity will definitely have to be raised above that of the A350-900ULR (166,000 litres). Airbus might not be able justify the extra fuel tanks and plumbing as no other airline will require an aircraft with over 9000nm range.

Even If the A350-1000 fuel capacity is increased to the A350-900ULR's the range will go from 8500nm to 8800-8900nm at the second kink point on the current payload range chart. That is at 316,000kg MTOW with a very decent 30,000kg of payload. The problem is to fly the 9250nm required it can not take extra fuel. It would then have to offload significant payload and take off below MTOW like these 787-9 test flights. Payload would drop to around 20,000kg and the takeoff weight would be below 310,000kg. Increasing the MTOW does not help as the problem is fuel capacity limited.

At the 319,000kg raised MTOW the A350-1000 needs the fuel capacity raised to around 175,000litres. It could then do SYD-LHR with around 28,000kg which is excellent.

Airbus may have a 1% PIP package that is not shown on the 2018 payload range chart. This could in theory allow the 166,000litre fuel capacity limit of the A350-900ULR to just allow the 1000 to make SYD-LHR for the majority of the year. I suspect this was the Airbus proposal but Qantas was not happy with blocking 50 seats on a bad weather day. Qantas probably rejected the Airbus offer as it wants Airbus to add extra fuel capacity to maintain economics in bad weather.

Boeings offer of half empty 777-9's is ridiculous and was also rejected.

The 777-8 had project sunrise in the bag. If Boeing does not produce it then they do not have suitable project sunrise aircraft. Airbus has the only off the shelf option that can do the route profitably. Airbus can then refuse to offer the extra fuel tanks as Qantas has no other option.

I think the A350-900ULR makes a better option. On an average weather day its fuel burn per passenger would be within 1% of the A350-1000. On bad weather day the the tables turn. The A350-900ULR could block 20 seats and add 2,000kg of extra fuel. The A350-1000 would have to block 60+ seats to gain extra range the same range as it can not add extra fuel.
 
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Thu Nov 21, 2019 4:18 am

moa999 wrote:

If course in 5-10 years, Elon Musk may totally change the dynamics of long-haul travel with his reusable Starship.


That's a pipedream.
 
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Thu Nov 21, 2019 4:44 am

I don't disagree.
But so was landing rockets vertically on barges moored at sea, or catching body parts in massive nets. He has had a history of making the dream reality.
 
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Thu Nov 21, 2019 8:26 am

RJMAZ wrote:
The big rumour is from the Air New Zealand thread is Boeing might be producing a 787-9 with a MTOW of 260t. This 6t increase on MTOW would be theory allow 40 extra passengers on the project sunrise route. That would be approx 190 passengers. This I believe is the front runner as it would have high commonality with the current 787-9's.


Yeah, no. We’ve had both Paris and Dubai air shows since that rumour started. Not a peep out of Boeing. Why would they keep so quiet about it?
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Thu Nov 21, 2019 8:48 am

scbriml wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
The big rumour is from the Air New Zealand thread is Boeing might be producing a 787-9 with a MTOW of 260t. This 6t increase on MTOW would be theory allow 40 extra passengers on the project sunrise route. That would be approx 190 passengers. This I believe is the front runner as it would have high commonality with the current 787-9's.


Yeah, no. We’ve had both Paris and Dubai air shows since that rumour started. Not a peep out of Boeing. Why would they keep so quiet about it?


Not to mention that the 789 is fuel tank limited more than anything else. The aircraft took off from JFK with, basically, 100% full tanks but was below MTOW.

An MTOW boost would be almost meaningless without aux tanks.
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Thu Nov 21, 2019 9:17 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
scbriml wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
The big rumour is from the Air New Zealand thread is Boeing might be producing a 787-9 with a MTOW of 260t. This 6t increase on MTOW would be theory allow 40 extra passengers on the project sunrise route. That would be approx 190 passengers. This I believe is the front runner as it would have high commonality with the current 787-9's.


Yeah, no. We’ve had both Paris and Dubai air shows since that rumour started. Not a peep out of Boeing. Why would they keep so quiet about it?


Not to mention that the 789 is fuel tank limited more than anything else. The aircraft took off from JFK with, basically, 100% full tanks but was below MTOW.

An MTOW boost would be almost meaningless without aux tanks.

Yes and the biggest issue will be the centre wingbox design might make it very difficult to fit auxilary fuel tanks in the cargo hold... :box:

To paraphrase Lord Melchett, I think we may soon see him "twist and turn like a twisty turny thing"

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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Thu Nov 21, 2019 10:17 am

flipdewaf wrote:
Yes and the biggest issue will be the centre wingbox design might make it very difficult to fit auxilary fuel tanks in the cargo hold... :box:

To paraphrase Lord Melchett, I think we may soon see him "twist and turn like a twisty turny thing"

Fred

Yes that is most likely the biggest issue.

Adding auxilary tanks to a wet centre wing box with isogrid design would require significant engineering. It is highly doubtful the A350 wingbox was designed with locations for plumbing of a future auxilary tank.

Yes of course the aux tank goes in the cargo hold....
 
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Thu Nov 21, 2019 11:32 am

RJMAZ wrote:
Yes that is most likely the biggest issue.

Adding auxilary tanks to a wet centre wing box with isogrid design would require significant engineering. It is highly doubtful the A350 wingbox was designed with locations for plumbing of a future auxilary tank.


Why would it?

The fuel gallery needs to be able to transfer fuel across each OWT. That'll run along the rear spar - it has to for UERF reasons - so you could hook the ACTs into that.
There are even two access holes at the rear of the CWT already - one of which could be modified to pass the ACT pipework through.
There is a main vent line that splits several ways inside the CWT - again, hook the ACT vent into one of those.

It is not a massive deal. Certainly bigger mods have been made by Airbus fuel systems in the past.

Furthermore - there already is pipework coming out of the rear of the CWT. For the APU - but you likely wouldn't use that line.


Just looking at the schematics - you could just transfer directly (whether electrically or via jet pump) into the CWT and let the main pumps there pick up the fuel and send it to the engines with the OWT pumps turned off during initial flight (which is normal anyway for load alleviation). A little bit of work to tee off the vent and get it to your ACTs but nothing massive.
 
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Thu Nov 21, 2019 1:14 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
It is not a massive deal. Certainly bigger mods have been made by Airbus fuel systems in the past.

It is a massive deal. It kills the deal. The cost of developing an ACT would eat into nearly all of the profit on the Qantas order. No other airline would want the ACT. Airbus has to either make very little profit on the order or Qantas has to pay for the development cost.

If this was an order of 20 aircraft then Airbus would have no issue paying the money. The A321 family has made it look easy adding extra ACT's. This is because the plumbing was there for a single ACT 20 years ago. Once you have one ACT it is very easy to add a second or third.
 
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Thu Nov 21, 2019 1:19 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
It is not a massive deal. Certainly bigger mods have been made by Airbus fuel systems in the past.

It is a massive deal. It kills the deal. The cost of developing an ACT would eat into nearly all of the profit on the Qantas order. No other airline would want the ACT. Airbus has to either make very little profit on the order or Qantas has to pay for the development cost.

As far as I know its 'only' the internal plumbing that needs sorting but the LD3 based ACT's are as off the shelf as these things can be (designed and certificated).

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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Thu Nov 21, 2019 1:40 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
It is a massive deal. It kills the deal. The cost of developing an ACT would eat into nearly all of the profit on the Qantas order. No other airline would want the ACT. Airbus has to either make very little profit on the order or Qantas has to pay for the development cost.


It is not the massive engineering challenge you have made it out to be.

The problem - as you now correctly recognise - is that the development cost is spread over so few frames and Qantas want to have their cake and eat it too.

So even if Airbus were able to do it for <$10m in R&D - which is fairly likely* - 100x man-years @$100k/yr** - over the number of frames we are talking, that is millions per frame on the bottom line.

*and a pittance compared to most developments.

**given the overall Fuel Systems group in Filton didn't number 100 people when I last worked with them...
 
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Thu Nov 21, 2019 1:55 pm

I think this edition of Project Sunrise is dead in the water. Let's wait and see what Boeing come back with. But to be honest, I don't think from what I am now aware of from this thread and others that a plane that can do it is the only obstacle Qantas faces. There are others that could break the company. This is a mountain. Not just about aircraft schedule and capability.
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Thu Nov 21, 2019 9:38 pm

flipdewaf wrote:
As far as I know its 'only' the internal plumbing that needs sorting but the LD3 based ACT's are as off the shelf as these things can be (designed and certificated).

So the carbon lower deck floor is able to support an off the shelf LD3 based ACT that weighs nearly 7000kg when filled?

FYI a single LD3 container has a 1500kg max structural load so for the pair you have a max gross weight of around 3000kg. The off the shelf ACT would more than double the floor load in that position.

The composite passenger floor on the 777W severely limits the cargo conversion.

Airbus will need a custom ACT's solution that spreads the load further down the floor. It is highly likely they designed the floor to handle the max weight of cargo containers.

But as far as you know its 'only' the internal plumbing that needs sorting..
 
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Thu Nov 21, 2019 10:09 pm

In one month, we will have had 10 years since the first 787 flew it's maiden flight ( a record 29 months after the 'roll-out'). We've also had 8 years of in-flight service.

My sense is that in a few short years, the 787 will be revisited. Perhaps the 9 and 10 will get the larger wing that was originally planned.... along with an MTOW and fuel capacity bump.... Might even be time for a review of the GENx engine. Maybe even a -11 will be launched as it's a big leap from current 787-10 to 777-9 and the 777-8 may not ever be launched. Maybe the 787-8 will be revisited too.

797,787 nextgen, and 777-9 will be what Boeing will have on offer for passenger duty by 2030. Kind of a Y1, Y2-2ndEdition, and Y3-Sorta combination. 777-9 will be a slow seller, 787 and 797 will be ready for next replacment cycles in the 2030 decade (some 320CEO/320NEO/737NG/737MAXes and 330ceo/330neo/350787s will have some years and cycles by then).

Anyway, could very well be that a nexgen 787-9 is what fits the bill for Proj Sunrise. Or it will come from an absolutely incredible A350-900ULR-2ndEdition. Those may not be as far away as we think...

Didn't seem like it would launch this year as we kept hearing the pax numbers being revisited and dropped repeatedly.
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flipdewaf
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Thu Nov 21, 2019 11:31 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
As far as I know its 'only' the internal plumbing that needs sorting but the LD3 based ACT's are as off the shelf as these things can be (designed and certificated).

So the carbon lower deck floor is able to support an off the shelf LD3 based ACT that weighs nearly 7000kg when filled?

FYI a single LD3 container has a 1500kg max structural load so for the pair you have a max gross weight of around 3000kg. The off the shelf ACT would more than double the floor load in that position.

The composite passenger floor on the 777W severely limits the cargo conversion.

Airbus will need a custom ACT's solution that spreads the load further down the floor. It is highly likely they designed the floor to handle the max weight of cargo containers.

But as far as you know its 'only' the internal plumbing that needs sorting..

From when I was looking at freight loading simulations for deriving the loading loops I think the max weight per position was 6800kg.

Fred


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bcworld
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Nov 22, 2019 12:15 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
The majority of posters on this thread seem to have completely missed this point, but this is the research behind the "research" flights. Qantas is seeking to prove their fatigue modelling to CASA so that they can receive regulatory sign-off. That is why the crew are wearing heart beat monitors etc. Sure, the passengers are mostly there for publicity, but the pilots are actually been assessed to measure their fatigue.


You can't conduct research or prove anything by operating THREE flights. Statistically, the results are worthless.
 
flipdewaf
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Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Nov 22, 2019 12:16 am

bcworld wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
The majority of posters on this thread seem to have completely missed this point, but this is the research behind the "research" flights. Qantas is seeking to prove their fatigue modelling to CASA so that they can receive regulatory sign-off. That is why the crew are wearing heart beat monitors etc. Sure, the passengers are mostly there for publicity, but the pilots are actually been assessed to measure their fatigue.


You can't conduct research or prove anything by operating THREE flights. Statistically, the results are worthless.


It’s 3 flights with 40+ people on each so 120+ separate subjects and thousands of data points.

How many wings do you need to break for certification to prove the structural models are correct?

Fred


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Whatsaptudo
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Nov 22, 2019 12:38 am

flipdewaf wrote:
bcworld wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
The majority of posters on this thread seem to have completely missed this point, but this is the research behind the "research" flights. Qantas is seeking to prove their fatigue modelling to CASA so that they can receive regulatory sign-off. That is why the crew are wearing heart beat monitors etc. Sure, the passengers are mostly there for publicity, but the pilots are actually been assessed to measure their fatigue.


You can't conduct research or prove anything by operating THREE flights. Statistically, the results are worthless.


It’s 3 flights with 40+ people on each so 120+ separate subjects and thousands of data points.

How many wings do you need to break for certification to prove the structural models are correct?

Fred


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But you need to do it individually many many times. You can’t get a reasonable idea of fatigue when you do it once. The crew will be doing it over and over and over again. Fatigue is cumulative. These “science experiments” are statistically worthless. Good PR, but complete Rubbish.
 
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Nov 22, 2019 12:44 am

Whatsaptudo wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
bcworld wrote:

You can't conduct research or prove anything by operating THREE flights. Statistically, the results are worthless.


It’s 3 flights with 40+ people on each so 120+ separate subjects and thousands of data points.

How many wings do you need to break for certification to prove the structural models are correct?

Fred


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But you need to do it individually many many times. You can’t get a reasonable idea of fatigue when you do it once. The crew will be doing it over and over and over again. Fatigue is cumulative. These “science experiments” are statistically worthless. Good PR, but complete Rubbish.


That might be your opinion, but if it's enough to satisfy CASA then so be it.

I can't believe I'm repeating this again, but they're validating an existing model, not seeking new data. Whatever you may think of the methodology, they are basically looking that nothing disproves their model. Phrasing the question in the negative significantly narrows the scope of the enquiry.
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zeke
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Nov 22, 2019 11:28 am

RJMAZ wrote:
So the carbon lower deck floor is able to support an off the shelf LD3 based ACT that weighs nearly 7000kg when filled?


Containers do not rest on the lining, they rest on rails. The standard Airbus widebody process includes different rails where the tank is installed, this includes the plumbing for the tank. The tank can be removed and the location used for normal cargo if desired and the plumbing blanked off.

The other rails for the remainder of the hold do not need to be changed, as the tank is installed and removed when empty, with a mass of the ATC is only 615 kg.

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clipperlondon
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Nov 22, 2019 12:20 pm

Much as I love planes, the idea of being cooped up in a metal tube for 19 hours is not attractive. At all.
 
ShamrockBoi330
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Nov 22, 2019 4:11 pm

clipperlondon wrote:
Much as I love planes, the idea of being cooped up in a metal tube for 19 hours is not attractive. At all.


It'll be fine at the pointy end! I actually look forward to LH/ULH flights when flying at the pointy end!
 
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EK413
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Fri Nov 22, 2019 6:17 pm

ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
clipperlondon wrote:
Much as I love planes, the idea of being cooped up in a metal tube for 19 hours is not attractive. At all.


It'll be fine at the pointy end! I actually look forward to LH/ULH flights when flying at the pointy end!


Agreed. Especially if these concept economy seats are introduced

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Certainly have no problem travelling in the pointy end.

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VV
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sat Nov 23, 2019 11:20 am

pabloeing wrote:


Six 777-200LR for Project Sunrise!

It would be a way to cover Emirates 6 777-300ER cancellations.

I guess Tim Clark will try everything to prevent this from happening.
 
Armodeen
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sat Nov 23, 2019 11:32 am

Web500sjc wrote:
https://thepointsguy.com/news/qantas-rejects-airbus-and-boeing-offers-for-project-sunrise/


Qantas asks Airbus and Boeing to go back to the drawing board and make offer airplanes than were previously offered, presumably the A350-1000ULR mk1 and 777-8x couldn’t meet the mission parameters.


Joyce wants unique or at least niche aircraft at knock down prices? GTFO.
 
Oykie
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sat Nov 23, 2019 11:32 am

pabloeing wrote:


That was an interesting read. I can see Boeing offering 777-200LR for very competitive prices, buying them back and selling the 777-8 down the road. But converting the -200LR to ferighters for FedEx seems to complicate this transaction. I must say its very creative. It will give Qantas a greater fuel bill for sure, and I wonder how cheap the 777-200LR needs to be to make this work. I tried QR 777-200LR from DOH-MEL and they worked well for a 14,5 hour flight in economy.
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moa999
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sat Nov 23, 2019 11:33 am

What's changed so that the 200LR can now make this flight distance?
 
VV
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sat Nov 23, 2019 11:52 am

moa999 wrote:
What's changed so that the 200LR can now make this flight distance?


I guess nothing except low, but good enough payload.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sat Nov 23, 2019 3:28 pm

VV wrote:
moa999 wrote:
What's changed so that the 200LR can now make this flight distance?

I guess nothing except low, but good enough payload.

777W/L got a 2% performance kicker late in life ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_77 ... provements ).

May be good enough to close the business case with Boeing working deals with QF to use the planes for a few years then passing them on to FX to be used as freighters and QF getting 778/9.

If nothing else, something for us to talk about on a.net! :biggrin:
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VV
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sat Nov 23, 2019 3:55 pm

Revelation wrote:
VV wrote:
moa999 wrote:
What's changed so that the 200LR can now make this flight distance?

I guess nothing except low, but good enough payload.

777W/L got a 2% performance kicker late in life ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_77 ... provements ).

May be good enough to close the business case with Boeing working deals with QF to use the planes for a few years then passing them on to FX to be used as freighters and QF getting 778/9.

If nothing else, something for us to talk about on a.net! :biggrin:


The acquisition cost of 777-200LR should be quite compelling.

In addition the aircraft is readily available thus Qantas can start Project Sunrise in only eighteen months, in 2021.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sat Nov 23, 2019 4:10 pm

VV wrote:
The acquisition cost of 777-200LR should be quite compelling.

In addition the aircraft is readily available thus Qantas can start Project Sunrise in only eighteen months, in 2021.

Well, there is that little issue of getting flight crews to cough up 30% "productivity gains" that needs to be worked out...
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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