moyangmm
Posts: 196
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:22 pm

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sat Nov 23, 2019 4:14 pm

pabloeing wrote:


Interesting read. I must say it is a creative solution. 778 is worth waiting for, even that means taking 777-200LR as interim. 778 is much more capable. In fact, 778 is the only viable choice.
 
moyangmm
Posts: 196
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:22 pm

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sat Nov 23, 2019 4:16 pm

VV wrote:
moa999 wrote:
What's changed so that the 200LR can now make this flight distance?


I guess nothing except low, but good enough payload.


and ACTs, which no current 77L operators has opted for.
 
flipdewaf
Posts: 3059
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2006 6:28 am

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sat Nov 23, 2019 4:56 pm

moyangmm wrote:
pabloeing wrote:


Interesting read. I must say it is a creative solution. 778 is worth waiting for, even that means taking 777-200LR as interim. 778 is much more capable. In fact, 778 is the only viable choice.

And the A350-1000. The 778 will likely take a higher load but the A350-1000 will do so at less cost. If you read further up the thread this was already pointed out to you.

Fred


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Image
 
VV
Posts: 1223
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sat Nov 23, 2019 5:14 pm

moyangmm wrote:
VV wrote:
moa999 wrote:
What's changed so that the 200LR can now make this flight distance?


I guess nothing except low, but good enough payload.


and ACTs, which no current 77L operators has opted for.


It is already on the offer since many years. I guess Boeing has the design more or less ready even though no operator has adopted the solution.
 
VV
Posts: 1223
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sat Nov 23, 2019 5:16 pm

Revelation wrote:
VV wrote:
The acquisition cost of 777-200LR should be quite compelling.

In addition the aircraft is readily available thus Qantas can start Project Sunrise in only eighteen months, in 2021.

Well, there is that little issue of getting flight crews to cough up 30% "productivity gains" that needs to be worked out...


Well, it is not related to the aircraft, is it?
 
VV
Posts: 1223
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sat Nov 23, 2019 5:19 pm

Suddenly the 777-200LR solution looks very compelling now the acquisition cost goes down significantly.

Boeing can offer them almost at cost considering the fact those would be the end of the 777-200LR/-300ER production.

If this solution is accepted by Qantas, the number of orders would be between 6 to 8.

However, if Qantas is under the obligation to do something related to the cancellation of 8 A380 then they will have to take some A350 too.

This is a weird situation.
 
flipdewaf
Posts: 3059
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2006 6:28 am

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sat Nov 23, 2019 5:30 pm

The 77l would burn about 4-500k more fuel per month than the 778X or A350.

Fred


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Image
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 21935
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sat Nov 23, 2019 5:31 pm

VV wrote:
Revelation wrote:
VV wrote:
The acquisition cost of 777-200LR should be quite compelling.

In addition the aircraft is readily available thus Qantas can start Project Sunrise in only eighteen months, in 2021.

Well, there is that little issue of getting flight crews to cough up 30% "productivity gains" that needs to be worked out...


Well, it is not related to the aircraft, is it?

It is related to having the aircraft in 18 months.

It would be madness for both the airline and the aircraft vendor to go forward without having the necessary crew agreements in place.

Way too much risk of the whole project falling apart.

We have no indication of an agreement happening any time soon.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
qf002
Posts: 3592
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2011 11:14 am

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sat Nov 23, 2019 5:39 pm

Does QF want to start in 18 months though?

And do they trust Boeing to follow through with the 778? Even with contractual penalties and the like, being stuck with 77Ls for 5+ years and then having to reinvest to keep the flights going long-term with an alternate fleet would be a huge blow.
 
VV
Posts: 1223
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sat Nov 23, 2019 5:46 pm

Revelation wrote:
VV wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Well, there is that little issue of getting flight crews to cough up 30% "productivity gains" that needs to be worked out...


Well, it is not related to the aircraft, is it?

It is related to having the aircraft in 18 months.

It would be madness for both the airline and the aircraft vendor to go forward without having the necessary crew agreements in place.

Way too much risk of the whole project falling apart.

We have no indication of an agreement happening any time soon.


In reality we do not know if the agreement would happen soon or not.
My understanding is that initially Qantas wanted to start the very long flight as early as 2022 because neither 777-8 nor A350 would be ready before that date.

With a possible earlier solution perhaps the target date could be advanced, including the agreement with the pilots.

If the pilots do not agree, in reality this silly conversation about Project Sunrise is absolutely useless even for a later date.
 
VV
Posts: 1223
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sat Nov 23, 2019 5:48 pm

qf002 wrote:
Does QF want to start in 18 months though?

And do they trust Boeing to follow through with the 778? Even with contractual penalties and the like, being stuck with 77Ls for 5+ years and then having to reinvest to keep the flights going long-term with an alternate fleet would be a huge blow.


Who cares.

Everybody here seems to say that Qantas can extract a high premium for these direct flights. If in addition Boeing compensates the airline for the extra operating cost then where is the problem?
 
Strato2
Posts: 467
Joined: Sat Sep 24, 2016 3:52 pm

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sat Nov 23, 2019 5:58 pm

Gas guzzling 777-200LR would be a public relations disaster for QF when the word gets out that they are flying one of the most uneconomical/environmentally disastrous planes out there on a route that is already dubious in todays world even with the latest technology.
 
moyangmm
Posts: 196
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:22 pm

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sat Nov 23, 2019 6:05 pm

Strato2 wrote:
Gas guzzling 777-200LR would be a public relations disaster for QF when the word gets out that they are flying one of the most uneconomical/environmentally disastrous planes out there on a route that is already dubious in todays world even with the latest technology.


while not as efficient as 787, 777-200LR is not as gas guzzling as some one would think. It is certainly more efficient than the four-engine A380 and A340.
 
flipdewaf
Posts: 3059
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2006 6:28 am

Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sat Nov 23, 2019 6:05 pm

moyangmm wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
moyangmm wrote:

Interesting read. I must say it is a creative solution. 778 is worth waiting for, even that means taking 777-200LR as interim. 778 is much more capable. In fact, 778 is the only viable choice.

And the A350-1000. The 778 will likely take a higher load but the A350-1000 will do so at less cost. If you read further up the thread this was already pointed out to you.

Fred


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Keep repeating those bogus Airbus advertising numbers won't make them true. There is zero credibility left in the Airbus range numbers when 359ULR were advertising as 9700 nmi while actually can barely make 8200 nmi EWR-SIN route, with mere 161 passengers.

The inaugural SIN-EWR route by the A350 took off 7tons below MTOW and landed some ~34 tons over OWE. It had a SAR of around 8400-8500nm. Barely making is an opinion. You are entitled to believe whatever you want.

Alan Joyce has said it makes the mission.

I have shown in this thread numbers based of frost principle modelling how it makes it.

Refute with evidence not by assertion.


I would urge others to read your posting history to establish your credibility including the use of multiple usernames to further derail otherwise useful threads. I won’t tell them what to think, most folks can establish the reality for themselves.

Fred


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Image
 
qf002
Posts: 3592
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2011 11:14 am

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sat Nov 23, 2019 6:40 pm

VV wrote:
Everybody here seems to say that Qantas can extract a high premium for these direct flights. If in addition Boeing compensates the airline for the extra operating cost then where is the problem?


Im not doubting the business model, I’m doubting the strength of QF’s faith in Boeing given recent history.
 
VV
Posts: 1223
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sat Nov 23, 2019 7:16 pm

qf002 wrote:
VV wrote:
Everybody here seems to say that Qantas can extract a high premium for these direct flights. If in addition Boeing compensates the airline for the extra operating cost then where is the problem?


Im not doubting the business model, I’m doubting the strength of QF’s faith in Boeing given recent history.


On the 777-200LR????
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 17825
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sat Nov 23, 2019 8:24 pm

VV wrote:
Well, it is not related to the aircraft, is it?


Doesn't matter. It's as germain to the viability of Project Sunrise as QF's choice of aircraft to operate the service.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
Baldr
Posts: 22
Joined: Sat Nov 23, 2019 1:10 pm

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sat Nov 23, 2019 8:26 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
As far as I know its 'only' the internal plumbing that needs sorting but the LD3 based ACT's are as off the shelf as these things can be (designed and certificated).

So the carbon lower deck floor is able to support an off the shelf LD3 based ACT that weighs nearly 7000kg when filled?

FYI a single LD3 container has a 1500kg max structural load so for the pair you have a max gross weight of around 3000kg. The off the shelf ACT would more than double the floor load in that position.

The composite passenger floor on the 777W severely limits the cargo conversion.

Airbus will need a custom ACT's solution that spreads the load further down the floor. It is highly likely they designed the floor to handle the max weight of cargo containers.

But as far as you know its 'only' the internal plumbing that needs sorting..


RJMAZ, the lower deck floor structure on the A350 is made of titanium beams -- the lateral ends of which are connected to the circumferential frames -- with 6 CFRP struts (including failure-initiating element associated with 2 struts) supporting the floor structure; with the lower end of the struts fixed on the CFRP circumferential frames and the upper end of the struts fixed on the titanium beams of the lower deck floor structure.

Image of fuselage section showing titanium floor beams of the lower deck of the A350:

https://www.premium-aerotec.com/en/products/


More info:

All of the A350’s metal parts — aluminum seat rails and a mix of aluminum, aluminum/lithium alloy and titanium for lower frames and passenger cabin structural floor grid beams — do double duty. Each part has a structural function, and it also forms part of the overall electrical structure network (ESN) within the aircraft


https://www.compositesworld.com/articles/a350-xwb-update-smart-manufacturing

And

At the concept phase, feedback from operators’ inflight experience allowed Airbus to define areas of the aircraft under threat of corrosion by various environmental conditions. The A350 XWB sets stringent criteria to combat this threat. CFRP which is not subject to corrosion, is used for 53% of the aircraft but in areas subject to liquid aggression like the galley areas, traditional aluminium for seat rails has been replaced by titanium. In the same way, metallic frames in the lower part of the fuselage are made of titanium rather than aluminium


Source: FAST special edition: A350 XWB / June 2013
https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/support-services/publications/fast-magazine.html
 
User avatar
ikolkyo
Posts: 2736
Joined: Tue Nov 05, 2013 8:43 pm

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sat Nov 23, 2019 8:30 pm

flipdewaf wrote:
moyangmm wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
And the A350-1000. The 778 will likely take a higher load but the A350-1000 will do so at less cost. If you read further up the thread this was already pointed out to you.

Fred


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Keep repeating those bogus Airbus advertising numbers won't make them true. There is zero credibility left in the Airbus range numbers when 359ULR were advertising as 9700 nmi while actually can barely make 8200 nmi EWR-SIN route, with mere 161 passengers.

The inaugural SIN-EWR route by the A350 took off 7tons below MTOW and landed some ~34 tons over OWE. It had a SAR of around 8400-8500nm. Barely making is an opinion. You are entitled to believe whatever you want.

Alan Joyce has said it makes the mission.

I have shown in this thread numbers based of frost principle modelling how it makes it.

Refute with evidence not by assertion.


I would urge others to read your posting history to establish your credibility including the use of multiple usernames to further derail otherwise useful threads. I won’t tell them what to think, most folks can establish the reality for themselves.

Fred


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


SQ A359 ULR holds 161 passengers, that is nowhere near the capacity that QF wants. It wouldn’t be able to do it at QF specs. The aircraft is basically an A359 with reduced capacity currently.
 
flipdewaf
Posts: 3059
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2006 6:28 am

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sat Nov 23, 2019 8:47 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
moyangmm wrote:

Keep repeating those bogus Airbus advertising numbers won't make them true. There is zero credibility left in the Airbus range numbers when 359ULR were advertising as 9700 nmi while actually can barely make 8200 nmi EWR-SIN route, with mere 161 passengers.

The inaugural SIN-EWR route by the A350 took off 7tons below MTOW and landed some ~34 tons over OWE. It had a SAR of around 8400-8500nm. Barely making is an opinion. You are entitled to believe whatever you want.

Alan Joyce has said it makes the mission.

I have shown in this thread numbers based of frost principle modelling how it makes it.

Refute with evidence not by assertion.


I would urge others to read your posting history to establish your credibility including the use of multiple usernames to further derail otherwise useful threads. I won’t tell them what to think, most folks can establish the reality for themselves.

Fred


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


SQ A359 ULR holds 161 passengers, that is nowhere near the capacity that QF wants. It wouldn’t be able to do it at QF specs. The aircraft is basically an A359 with reduced capacity currently.

Yes, I admit that was confusing. USAX777 had clearly not read or chose to ignore the relevant posts about the ability of the A350-1000 to make the route and I was also referring to his claim that the 359ulr could barely make the sun-ewe route.

Frdd


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Image
 
User avatar
EK413
Posts: 5291
Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2003 3:11 pm

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sat Nov 23, 2019 10:04 pm

Strato2 wrote:
Gas guzzling 777-200LR would be a public relations disaster for QF when the word gets out that they are flying one of the most uneconomical/environmentally disastrous planes out there on a route that is already dubious in todays world even with the latest technology.


The 777 has been one of the most successful twins Boeing ever rolled out. Far from “uneconomical/environmentally disastrous planes” which you claim them to be.
When word gets out QF are operating the 777 the reaction would be it’s about bloody time! Only 20 years too late!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. We are tonight’s entertainment!
 
User avatar
zeke
Posts: 14154
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sat Nov 23, 2019 10:22 pm

Oykie wrote:
[But converting the -200LR to ferighters for FedEx seems to complicate this transaction. I must say its very creative. It will give Qantas a greater fuel bill for sure, and I wonder how cheap the 777-200LR needs to be to make this work.


I think GT has started early on the season’s celebrations with G&Ts to come up with that article. There is no Boeing P2F program on the 777, nor would a Boeing invest the money to develop one for just 5 frames. The best of my knowledge there have already been several 77Ls scrapped as they were nit popular on the second hand market.

And why would Fedex but a 77LP2F when they will be able to buy the Isralie 77WP2F which offers more volume at a better price ? The article just does not seem to stack up.

Lastly the 77L business case has never worked in the past, if it had they would already be flying them, the whole reason why the A350 and 77X are being looked at is the economics may make the business case work this time, however AJ has made it clear that that is not guaranteed.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
Baldr
Posts: 22
Joined: Sat Nov 23, 2019 1:10 pm

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sat Nov 23, 2019 11:59 pm

Revelation wrote:
VV wrote:
moa999 wrote:
What's changed so that the 200LR can now make this flight distance?

I guess nothing except low, but good enough payload.

777W/L got a 2% performance kicker late in life ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_77 ... provements ).

May be good enough to close the business case with Boeing working deals with QF to use the planes for a few years then passing them on to FX to be used as freighters and QF getting 778/9.

If nothing else, something for us to talk about on a.net! :biggrin:


Well, the 777F is specifically designed as a freighter, with additional strengthening in key structural areas, including:

New monolithic aluminum floor beams instead of the standard CFRP floor beams on the 77L/77W.
A strengthened fuselage, especially in the area of the main deck cargo door.

Since the most complex section of any freighter conversion is the cargo door and surrounding structure, I would assume that any Qantas 77L would have to be delivered with the unique large cargo door at the rear of the main deck installed, but deactivated. Presumably, the deactivated cargo door would have a window belt with windows in 5 out of the 7 frames of the door structure.

All this will lead to a heavier frame and higher fuel costs than a regular 77L.
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 1712
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sun Nov 24, 2019 12:20 am

ikolkyo wrote:
SQ A359 ULR holds 161 passengers, that is nowhere near the capacity that QF wants. It wouldn’t be able to do it at QF specs. The aircraft is basically an A359 with reduced capacity currently.

Thr A350-900ULR could easily do the project sunrise route with 200 passengers. It can do 20t of payload to 9250nm. Qantas has 236 passengers on their normal 787-9. Qantas will be a running lower density on the project sunrise route I would estimate 10-15% less density.

That would mean the following:
787-8 160 seats
787-9 200 seats
777-200LR 220 seats
A350-900 230 seats
A350-1000 260 seats
777-8 260 seats

The SQ flight does the new york to singapore route very easily and lands with a large reserve fuel load because the diversion airports are quite far apart. Winds are also hard to predict that far north.
 
User avatar
ikolkyo
Posts: 2736
Joined: Tue Nov 05, 2013 8:43 pm

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sun Nov 24, 2019 12:27 am

RJMAZ wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
SQ A359 ULR holds 161 passengers, that is nowhere near the capacity that QF wants. It wouldn’t be able to do it at QF specs. The aircraft is basically an A359 with reduced capacity currently.

Thr A350-900ULR could easily do the project sunrise route with 200 passengers. It can do 20t of payload to 9250nm. Qantas has 236 passengers on their normal 787-9. Qantas will be a running lower density on the project sunrise route I would estimate 10-15% less density.

That would mean the following:
787-8 160 seats
787-9 200 seats
777-200LR 220 seats
A350-900 230 seats
A350-1000 260 seats
777-8 260 seats

The SQ flight does the new york to singapore route very easily and lands with a large reserve fuel load because the diversion airports are quite far apart. Winds are also hard to predict that far north.


QF originally wanted 300 seats as a target, I highly doubt they are going to drop it down to 200 seats. There is a reason the aircraft isn’t an option currently.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 7317
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sun Nov 24, 2019 12:33 am

Etihad's five?? 77L are stored. Boeing can save time by refitting these frames as a stop-gap solution. Scrap after QF gets permanent PS frames. No P2F needed.

Port 789 enhancements to 788 and build a 788ULR.
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 1712
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sun Nov 24, 2019 2:20 am

ikolkyo wrote:
QF originally wanted 300 seats as a target, I highly doubt they are going to drop it down to 200 seats. There is a reason the aircraft isn’t an option currently.

Of course they would drop it down to 200 seats. They have already dropped the passenger number to accomodate a smaller aircraft. They would clearly do it again.

The original 300 seat number was only mentioned as that is the max number a 777-8 would carry in Qantas density. The 777-8 was the only aircraft capable of flying 9000+nm with a normal cabin. The passenger number was revised downwards to accomodate the A350-1000 that gained enough range to do the job.

If Boeing launched a 787-8ER tomorrow Qantas would again revise the number down to below 200 seats and start bragging about the small aircraft being private jet like. Likewise if the A350-900ULR got another MTOW up to say 285t then it would become more suitable than the 1000.
 
User avatar
ikolkyo
Posts: 2736
Joined: Tue Nov 05, 2013 8:43 pm

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sun Nov 24, 2019 2:44 am

RJMAZ wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
QF originally wanted 300 seats as a target, I highly doubt they are going to drop it down to 200 seats. There is a reason the aircraft isn’t an option currently.

Of course they would drop it down to 200 seats. They have already dropped the passenger number to accomodate a smaller aircraft. They would clearly do it again.

The original 300 seat number was only mentioned as that is the max number a 777-8 would carry in Qantas density. The 777-8 was the only aircraft capable of flying 9000+nm with a normal cabin. The passenger number was revised downwards to accomodate the A350-1000 that gained enough range to do the job.

If Boeing launched a 787-8ER tomorrow Qantas would again revise the number down to below 200 seats and start bragging about the small aircraft being private jet like. Likewise if the A350-900ULR got another MTOW up to say 285t then it would become more suitable than the 1000.


I highly doubt it, I don’t think they’re going to go any lower than 250 seats.
 
moa999
Posts: 647
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:37 am

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sun Nov 24, 2019 2:47 am

Capacity is a key number due to the cost of slots at LHR in particular.
 
Gemuser
Posts: 5024
Joined: Mon Nov 24, 2003 12:07 pm

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sun Nov 24, 2019 3:20 am

VV wrote:
Suddenly the 777-200LR solution looks very compelling now the acquisition cost goes down significantly.

Boeing can offer them almost at cost considering the fact those would be the end of the 777-200LR/-300ER production.

If this solution is accepted by Qantas, the number of orders would be between 6 to 8..

It has to be at least 8, more likely 10.
SYD/MEL - LHR requires an absoulte minimun of 5 airframes, more likely 5 point something.
SYD - JFK requires an absoulte minimum of 2 airframe most likely 2 point something
Adding those together we get about 8 frames with NO provisions for irrops or even maintance so I think a minimum of 10 frames are required.

Gemuser
 
chewybacca
Posts: 13
Joined: Fri Nov 01, 2019 11:39 am

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sun Nov 24, 2019 4:01 am

Irrespective whether 777X or A350, with all this talk about the number of frames required, do we think QF will order more than just the 12 or so frames currently bandied about in the media? Surely I’d expect more, especially if they’re trying to retire the 747 and eventually the A380.

12 might be enough for only ULR ops, but if they’re doing trunk Asian and North American routes as well, I would’ve thought QF would look to at least 20 frames in total? With the 787 configured in a lower density format, I’m not sure that would be enough to replace 747/380s in certain slot constrained airports like HND or even SIN/HKG.

And then what would happen if the business case didn’t stack up and PS didn’t go ahead? What will QF’s long haul fleet strategy look like?
 
ewt340
Posts: 863
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sun Nov 24, 2019 4:09 am

I don't understand how acquiring small numbers B777-200LR specially for the ULH routes make sense.

Sure the purchasing price might be extremely good. But in order to make sure these project became successful, they have to use the most efficient aircraft they could find.

Cheap aircraft only works for short flights with high cycle. Or when the plane have decent fuel burn (not the most efficient but efficient enough to operate).

And B777-200LR isn't in that category.
 
NTLDaz
Posts: 390
Joined: Sun Aug 21, 2011 7:56 am

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sun Nov 24, 2019 4:18 am

ewt340 wrote:
I don't understand how acquiring small numbers B777-200LR specially for the ULH routes make sense.

Sure the purchasing price might be extremely good. But in order to make sure these project became successful, they have to use the most efficient aircraft they could find.

Cheap aircraft only works for short flights with high cycle. Or when the plane have decent fuel burn (not the most efficient but efficient enough to operate).

And B777-200LR isn't in that category.


I think it's fair to assume Qantas wouldn't be looking at taking the LR unless Boeing gave them a deal which would mitigate these issues. They're not stupid.

Reality is it's unlikely anyone on here would have a clue what Boeing is offering - or of they've made an offer at all.
 
Sparker
Posts: 15
Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2018 11:54 am

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sun Nov 24, 2019 4:23 am

NTLDaz wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
I don't understand how acquiring small numbers B777-200LR specially for the ULH routes make sense.

Sure the purchasing price might be extremely good. But in order to make sure these project became successful, they have to use the most efficient aircraft they could find.

Cheap aircraft only works for short flights with high cycle. Or when the plane have decent fuel burn (not the most efficient but efficient enough to operate).

And B777-200LR isn't in that category.


I think it's fair to assume Qantas wouldn't be looking at taking the LR unless Boeing gave them a deal which would mitigate these issues. They're not stupid.

Reality is it's unlikely anyone on here would have a clue what Boeing is offering - or of they've made an offer at all.


There have been several other reports suggesting that Boeing has also offered to compensate QF for the higher cost of operating the 777-9X on ULH flights (in articles where that was assumed to be Boeing's interim offer).
 
moa999
Posts: 647
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:37 am

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sun Nov 24, 2019 4:30 am

chewybacca wrote:
I’m not sure that would be enough to replace 747/380s in certain slot constrained airports like HND or even SIN/HKG.


Whatever is ordered for Sunrise is not a 747 or 380 replacement. They are effectively growth aircraft, although may result in a rejig of A380 routes (eg DFW and possibly LHR)

The current 6 747ERs are replaced by the 3 787s delivered in the last two months (final one in a week) and then the 3 more due middle of next year (slight loss in number of seats)

The 12 A380s (all owned not leased) are undergoing an expensive refurb and reconfiguration and I can't see them leaving for 8+ years.

The next QF widebodies needing replacement are the 4 2002/03 332s (probably replaced by the 321XLR order) and the 10 2003-05 (either 787s or whatever is picked as Sunrise)
Last edited by moa999 on Sun Nov 24, 2019 4:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Sparker
Posts: 15
Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2018 11:54 am

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sun Nov 24, 2019 4:31 am

chewybacca wrote:
Irrespective whether 777X or A350, with all this talk about the number of frames required, do we think QF will order more than just the 12 or so frames currently bandied about in the media? Surely I’d expect more, especially if they’re trying to retire the 747 and eventually the A380.

12 might be enough for only ULR ops, but if they’re doing trunk Asian and North American routes as well, I would’ve thought QF would look to at least 20 frames in total? With the 787 configured in a lower density format, I’m not sure that would be enough to replace 747/380s in certain slot constrained airports like HND or even SIN/HKG.

And then what would happen if the business case didn’t stack up and PS didn’t go ahead? What will QF’s long haul fleet strategy look like?


I would fully expect them to, if the initial LHR and JFK routes prove successful. Joyce has flagged a number of other potential ULH routes that would be considered for further growth, such as MEL/SYD-ORD, CPT, FRA and FCO. With the 787 order, QF have adopted a very deliberate strategy of only firming up incremental orders once they are confident they can profitably use the extra frame - I'd expect a very similar approach.

In the medium-term, QF will also need to begin replacing the A380 on routes such as HKG, LAX and SCL (assuming they don't largely bypass LAX with direct flights to other cities). Presumably, they'll use a common type for that replacement project.

If PS doesn't stack up, I'd expect QF to continue gradually taking 787s to replace the 747ERs, and to begin replacing the A330s. I expect they'd hold off on planning for the A380 replacement until the early-mid 2020s, when they can think about taking advantage of any upcoming new planes (A350neo, 787X etc).
 
moa999
Posts: 647
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:37 am

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sun Nov 24, 2019 4:34 am

From the QF Investor Day last week (selected slides).

Tapatalk compresses too much.
See slides 41 and 42 from the 2019 Presentation
https://investor.qantas.com/investors/? ... estor-days

ImageImage
 
ewt340
Posts: 863
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sun Nov 24, 2019 4:44 am

chewybacca wrote:
Irrespective whether 777X or A350, with all this talk about the number of frames required, do we think QF will order more than just the 12 or so frames currently bandied about in the media? Surely I’d expect more, especially if they’re trying to retire the 747 and eventually the A380.

12 might be enough for only ULR ops, but if they’re doing trunk Asian and North American routes as well, I would’ve thought QF would look to at least 20 frames in total? With the 787 configured in a lower density format, I’m not sure that would be enough to replace 747/380s in certain slot constrained airports like HND or even SIN/HKG.

And then what would happen if the business case didn’t stack up and PS didn’t go ahead? What will QF’s long haul fleet strategy look like?


I'm pretty sure that lowering capacity in economy class wouldn't be much of a problem for them since the real money maker are on the premium cabins.

Haneda is one of the most constrained airports in the world, similar to LHR. You would think qantas would send their A380 into the airport, but they are sending the smaller B747-400 into Haneda. Which beg the question, do they really need a big plane in the first place for these routes.

Qantas Flight from Melbourne to Narita uses A330-300. While Flight from Sydney to Hong Kong use both A330-200 and A380. Which mean that they could just switch to 2 large jets to accommodate the capacity increase.

And I don't think Singapore is as constrained as other airport like Haneda.
 
User avatar
qf789
Moderator
Topic Author
Posts: 9293
Joined: Thu Feb 05, 2015 3:42 pm

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sun Nov 24, 2019 5:04 am

ewt340 wrote:
chewybacca wrote:
Irrespective whether 777X or A350, with all this talk about the number of frames required, do we think QF will order more than just the 12 or so frames currently bandied about in the media? Surely I’d expect more, especially if they’re trying to retire the 747 and eventually the A380.

12 might be enough for only ULR ops, but if they’re doing trunk Asian and North American routes as well, I would’ve thought QF would look to at least 20 frames in total? With the 787 configured in a lower density format, I’m not sure that would be enough to replace 747/380s in certain slot constrained airports like HND or even SIN/HKG.

And then what would happen if the business case didn’t stack up and PS didn’t go ahead? What will QF’s long haul fleet strategy look like?


I'm pretty sure that lowering capacity in economy class wouldn't be much of a problem for them since the real money maker are on the premium cabins.

Haneda is one of the most constrained airports in the world, similar to LHR. You would think qantas would send their A380 into the airport, but they are sending the smaller B747-400 into Haneda. Which beg the question, do they really need a big plane in the first place for these routes.

Qantas Flight from Melbourne to Narita uses A330-300. While Flight from Sydney to Hong Kong use both A330-200 and A380. Which mean that they could just switch to 2 large jets to accommodate the capacity increase.

And I don't think Singapore is as constrained as other airport like Haneda.


Qantas use the A332 and 789 on SYD-HKG, the A388 is used during peak times only, outside of that the A388 is way too much capacity on the route, particularly in the current environment
Forum Moderator
 
Gemuser
Posts: 5024
Joined: Mon Nov 24, 2003 12:07 pm

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sun Nov 24, 2019 5:46 am

ewt340 wrote:
I'm pretty sure that lowering capacity in economy class wouldn't be much of a problem for them since the real money maker are on the premium cabins.

Haneda is one of the most constrained airports in the world, similar to LHR. You would think qantas would send their A380 into the airport, but they are sending the smaller B747-400 into Haneda. Which beg the question, do they really need a big plane in the first place for these routes..

After only being allocated one of the HND slots available by the Australian government QF are considering their response. They are reported to be in negotiation with HND to operate the A380 in their slot times, which is currently effectively banned [ or perhaps more accurately the restrictions are such to make it impractiable] they are also reported to considering usinging it from MEL so who knows?

Gemuser
 
moa999
Posts: 647
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:37 am

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sun Nov 24, 2019 6:00 am

Gemuser wrote:
They are reported to be in negotiation with HND to operate the A380 in their slot times, which is currently effectively banned


I'd originally expected (and seen suggested) that QF would go double SYD and JAL would go MEL. But now both JAL and ANA have announced SYD, I'd expect QF is more likely to go MEL.

Even if they get approval to use the A380 query if they have enough capacity to have one sitting around at HND all day (assuming you'd have to use the current more popular timings with such a big plane) until all the refurbs are complete end 2020.
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 1712
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sun Nov 24, 2019 7:04 am

ewt340 wrote:
I don't understand how acquiring small numbers B777-200LR specially for the ULH routes make sense.

Sure the purchasing price might be extremely good. But in order to make sure these project became successful, they have to use the most efficient aircraft they could find.

Cheap aircraft only works for short flights with high cycle. Or when the plane have decent fuel burn (not the most efficient but efficient enough to operate).

And B777-200LR isn't in that category.

You measure performance two ways.

1) Fuel burn per passenger using the same seating density across all aircraft.

2) Fuel burn per kg of payload weight that can be carried on the route.

The 777LR is actually very competitive on number 2 and it can easily do the project sunrise route. Fuel burn per kg is probably the more important measurement of the two.

The 777LR can carry more payload weight on that route than both the 777-8 and A350-1000. If you simply fit all three aircraft with similar density cabins then the 777LR will look bad and burn 15-20% more fuel per passenger as it has the smallest cabin. However if you look at fuel burn per kg of payload the 777LR would be very close to the newer aircraft and may even match the A350.

I estimate the following max payloads on the LHR-SYD route:
777LR 35t payload
777-8 30t payload
A350-1000 25t payload

Now the A350-1000 will have the lowest trip fuel burn, but the 777-8 carries 20% more payload. As the 777-8 will not burn 20% more fuel it has the lowest fuel burn per kg of payload. Same deal with the 777LR it will have the highest fuel burn but carries the most payload.

The economics of the 777LR look amazing when fuel prices are low. I'm surprised Qantas didn't purchase it a decade ago. I'm fairly certain the GE90 has had a PIP since Qantas last looked at the 777LR.

This is why an aircraft like the 787-8ER looks so attractive on paper. It might carry three quarters of the passengers while burning three quarters of the fuel but the big advantage is it could carry the same payload weight of the bigger aircraft while burning three quarters of the fuel. That adds flexibility for a denser cabin, put toilets below deck, more headroom for bad weather or extra express cargo.
 
flipdewaf
Posts: 3059
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2006 6:28 am

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sun Nov 24, 2019 7:51 am

RJMAZ wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
I don't understand how acquiring small numbers B777-200LR specially for the ULH routes make sense.

Sure the purchasing price might be extremely good. But in order to make sure these project became successful, they have to use the most efficient aircraft they could find.

Cheap aircraft only works for short flights with high cycle. Or when the plane have decent fuel burn (not the most efficient but efficient enough to operate).

And B777-200LR isn't in that category.

You measure performance two ways.

1) Fuel burn per passenger using the same seating density across all aircraft.

2) Fuel burn per kg of payload weight that can be carried on the route.

The 777LR is actually very competitive on number 2 and it can easily do the project sunrise route. Fuel burn per kg is probably the more important measurement of the two.

The 777LR can carry more payload weight on that route than both the 777-8 and A350-1000. If you simply fit all three aircraft with similar density cabins then the 777LR will look bad and burn 15-20% more fuel per passenger as it has the smallest cabin. However if you look at fuel burn per kg of payload the 777LR would be very close to the newer aircraft and may even match the A350.

I estimate the following max payloads on the LHR-SYD route:
777LR 35t payload
777-8 30t payload
A350-1000 25t payload

Now the A350-1000 will have the lowest trip fuel burn, but the 777-8 carries 20% more payload. As the 777-8 will not burn 20% more fuel it has the lowest fuel burn per kg of payload. Same deal with the 777LR it will have the highest fuel burn but carries the most payload.

The economics of the 777LR look amazing when fuel prices are low. I'm surprised Qantas didn't purchase it a decade ago. I'm fairly certain the GE90 has had a PIP since Qantas last looked at the 777LR.

This is why an aircraft like the 787-8ER looks so attractive on paper. It might carry three quarters of the passengers while burning three quarters of the fuel but the big advantage is it could carry the same payload weight of the bigger aircraft while burning three quarters of the fuel. That adds flexibility for a denser cabin, put toilets below deck, more headroom for bad weather or extra express cargo.

77L will carry about the same load as the A351 (~28t) on the assumed 9500nm sunrise route syd-lhr.

Fred


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Image
 
VV
Posts: 1223
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sun Nov 24, 2019 7:58 am

Okay.

Now the discussion seems to deviate from which aircraft Qantas needs to serve those route to something else when 777-200LR becomes an solution, especially when the acquisition cost is now very affordable.

So do they really want to do this SYD-LHR and JFK-SYD flights or not?
If they do then they can take this existing and proven solution, albeit with auxiliary fuel tanks, shut up and just fly the aircraft.

If the purpose of the whole "experimental" flights is only to make as much buzz in the industry as possible then they this whole discussion is absolutely useless. It is only useful for Qantas that keeps being mentioned in the press and in different blogs and discussion forums. It is a cheap way of making publicity.
 
ka
Posts: 592
Joined: Sun Apr 30, 2000 11:49 am

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sun Nov 24, 2019 9:10 am

What I don't understand: QF does these test flights with latest generation a/c with higher cabin pressure, higher humidity, less (interior) noise, etc. to get approval from the unions and authorities to fly these kind of ULHs with latest generation a/c on a regular basis - and now they suddenly consider the 77L !? Something is not adding up here...

Brgds,
Ka.
Keep smiling - you might be on Radar!
 
User avatar
zeke
Posts: 14154
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sun Nov 24, 2019 9:11 am

RJMAZ wrote:

The 777LR is actually very competitive on number 2 and it can easily do the project sunrise route. Fuel burn per kg is probably the more important measurement of the two.


The 77L never had a compelling business case that works, not 10 years ago, and not today.

If it did, QF would already be operating the route, and would had started the route years ago when fuel prices were even lower.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
User avatar
zeke
Posts: 14154
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sun Nov 24, 2019 9:17 am

ka wrote:
What I don't understand: QF does these test flights with latest generation a/c with higher cabin pressure, higher humidity, less (interior) noise, etc. to get approval from the unions and authorities to fly these kind of ULHs with latest generation a/c on a regular basis - and now they suddenly consider the 77L !? Something is not adding up here...

Brgds,
Ka.


Not really, the test flights were essentially marketing. The news got into the press worldwide.

Ferry flights for new aircraft are normally costs, by turning them into very public “research” flights they have turn them into tax deductions.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
Noshow
Posts: 1131
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:20 pm

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sun Nov 24, 2019 9:27 am

Could the 787 currently lay behind the A350 so that now the 777LR gets thrown in? It seems to be some big discussion at Qantas how the pilots get accommodated during those super long shifts in the crew rest and that they think some 787 doesn't offer the space of the A350 and 777. When could some 777-8 be made available for actual airline delivery?
 
VV
Posts: 1223
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sun Nov 24, 2019 9:40 am

chewybacca wrote:
Irrespective whether 777X or A350, with all this talk about the number of frames required, do we think QF will order more than just the 12 or so frames currently bandied about in the media? Surely I’d expect more, especially if they’re trying to retire the 747 and eventually the A380.

12 might be enough for only ULR ops, but if they’re doing trunk Asian and North American routes as well, I would’ve thought QF would look to at least 20 frames in total? With the 787 configured in a lower density format, I’m not sure that would be enough to replace 747/380s in certain slot constrained airports like HND or even SIN/HKG.

And then what would happen if the business case didn’t stack up and PS didn’t go ahead? What will QF’s long haul fleet strategy look like?



I think the only two routes in the Project Sunrise that require a capability beyond up to 9,500 nm are JFK-SYD and SYD-LHR.

777-200LR+ aux fuel tanks should be able to do this with at least 200 passengers.
 
User avatar
RyanairGuru
Posts: 8043
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2006 3:59 am

Re: Qantas plans 3 Project Sunrise research flights in Q4 2019 using 787-9's, final decision on PS by end of 2019

Sun Nov 24, 2019 9:45 am

zeke wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:

The 777LR is actually very competitive on number 2 and it can easily do the project sunrise route. Fuel burn per kg is probably the more important measurement of the two.


The 77L never had a compelling business case that works, not 10 years ago, and not today.

If it did, QF would already be operating the route, and would had started the route years ago when fuel prices were even lower.


The 77L would only have a compelling business case if the capital cost was close to zero. That wasn't the case 10 years ago, but if Boeing were giving them away then that might change the cost analysis enough. I'm still doubtful though.
Worked Hard, Flew Right

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos