dcajet
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United to suspend EWR-EZE

Fri Aug 23, 2019 10:23 pm

The crisis in Argentina and uncertainty stemming out of the presidential primaries held 2 weeks ago appear to have claimed its first victim among the major carriers operating there. Last flight would be on Oct. 26th. EZE-IAH remains unchanged. Yields out of Argentina have dropped like a stone. Apparently the change will be uploaded with this coming weekend updates to GDS.
Last edited by dcajet on Fri Aug 23, 2019 10:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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LAXintl
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Re: RUMOR - United said to cancel EWR-EZE

Fri Aug 23, 2019 10:30 pm

Its confirmed:

We have seen weakened travel demand between EWR and EZE (Buenos Aires) and plan to suspend service after the return flight from EZE on Oct. 26, 2019. We will continue to serve EZE customers via our daily nonstop from IAH.
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dcajet
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Re: RUMOR - United said to cancel EWR-EZE

Fri Aug 23, 2019 10:30 pm

As of now, and pending confirmation from UA, sources within the airline talk of a "suspension of service" eff 26/10.
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Dieuwer
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Fri Aug 23, 2019 10:36 pm

Better suspend a flight too soon. You never know when Argentina will turn into Venezuela 2.0.
 
Varsity1
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:20 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Better suspend a flight too soon. You never know when Argentina will turn into Venezuela 2.0.


This is a ridiculous statement. Argentina is nowhere near Venezuela status.

I suspect AA is kicking UA's you know what out of EZE. It's a convenient excuse to pull out.
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2travel2know2
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:22 pm

Strange last flight is in October and service does not continue thrice weekly until mid January after XMAS and New Year travel season.
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dcajet
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:26 pm

Varsity1 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Better suspend a flight too soon. You never know when Argentina will turn into Venezuela 2.0.


This is a ridiculous statement. Argentina is nowhere near Venezuela status.

I suspect AA is kicking UA's you know what out of EZE. It's a convenient excuse to pull out.


It is a slippery slope and while Argentina is nowhere near Venezuela, it could be rather soon if the Kirchners get back in power as it is expected. People are really concerned down there, but the difference in favor of the peronists seems too much to recover from in 60 days, when the general elections will be held.

Yields have also dropped like a stone for American. They just command the traveler's preference from Argentina. I would not be surprised if AA cuts back some frequencies or downgauges a route or two.
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UA857
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:28 pm

Again after only two years of service the route is suspended.
 
dcajet
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:32 pm

2travel2know2 wrote:
Strange last flight is in October and service does not continue thrice weekly until mid January after XMAS and New Year travel season.


Why is it strange? They are not making money now with a daily flight, what makes you think they will make a profit flying a bunch of times a week only, alienating the top $ customer, and instead flying families with crying babies during the Holidays?
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BreezyIAH
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:41 pm

What's the customer base for the route?
 
Cointrin330
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:44 pm

Not the first time this has happened. UA moved IAD-EZE to EWR-EZE in 2012 and cancelled it a year later.
 
Cointrin330
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:54 pm

Varsity1 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Better suspend a flight too soon. You never know when Argentina will turn into Venezuela 2.0.


This is a ridiculous statement. Argentina is nowhere near Venezuela status.

I suspect AA is kicking UA's you know what out of EZE. It's a convenient excuse to pull out.


AA has operated JFK-EZE for years, and is the dominant US carrier in Argentina (up to 3 x daily MIA-EZE in peak season, plus daily DFW-EZE, weekly LAX-EZE, and daily JFK-EZE as well as the 2019 started MIA-COR) but AA has also drawn down some service to Argentina during the 2001 financial crisis there. Argentina's economy is boom and bust and has been for as long as time. UA pulling EWR-EZE is less about competition than about yields to Argentina.
 
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:54 pm

dcajet wrote:
Yields out of Argentina have dropped like a stone.


Do you mean to/from Argentina, or Argentina POS specifically?
 
Cointrin330
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:55 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Better suspend a flight too soon. You never know when Argentina will turn into Venezuela 2.0.


What a stupid, ignorant statement. Not even comparable.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:57 pm

This one is far less surprising than ORD-HKG's suspension.

UA seems to be purposing their hubs more strictly. EWR for Europe, SFO for Asia, IAH for Latin America, DEN for domestic, and ORD is still the jack of all trades hub.
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dcajet
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:02 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
dcajet wrote:
Yields out of Argentina have dropped like a stone.


Do you mean to/from Argentina, or Argentina POS specifically?


In this specific case, Argentina POS. The NYC and MIA/MCO routes tend to be mostly Argentina POS. IAH, ATL, DFW & LAX are more US POS.
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chepos
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United to suspend EWR-EZE

Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:02 am

Cointrin330 wrote:
Varsity1 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Better suspend a flight too soon. You never know when Argentina will turn into Venezuela 2.0.


This is a ridiculous statement. Argentina is nowhere near Venezuela status.

I suspect AA is kicking UA's you know what out of EZE. It's a convenient excuse to pull out.


AA has operated JFK-EZE for years, and is the dominant US carrier in Argentina (up to 3 x daily MIA-EZE in peak season, plus daily DFW-EZE, weekly LAX-EZE, and daily JFK-EZE as well as the 2019 started MIA-COR) but AA has also drawn down some service to Argentina during the 2001 financial crisis there. Argentina's economy is boom and bust and has been for as long as time. UA pulling EWR-EZE is less about competition than about yields to Argentina.


LAX-EZE operates 3 times a week, supposedly the flight is exceeding expectations. As well as the recently launched MIA-COR.

It feels like this EWR!route was just re-launched.


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Last edited by chepos on Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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PSAatSAN4Ever
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:03 am

Cointrin330 wrote:
UA pulling EWR-EZE is less about competition than about yields to Argentina.


Nailed it. Mike drop. Bravo, sir. Why waste money on a route that could easily be put to better use elsewhere in the network, either as increased frequency or the opening of a new route. Anybody can fill a plane, but can that plane be flown profitably on that full plane? If not, move on to another route.

I am assuming IAH-EZE is continuing, yes? So it's not a complete pull-out; merely a market adjustment.
 
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:06 am

BreezyIAH wrote:
What's the customer base for the route?


Mostly Argentina POS with some NYC business (financial, mostly) thrown in for good measure.
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Cointrin330
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:08 am

PSAatSAN4Ever wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
UA pulling EWR-EZE is less about competition than about yields to Argentina.


Nailed it. Mike drop. Bravo, sir. Why waste money on a route that could easily be put to better use elsewhere in the network, either as increased frequency or the opening of a new route. Anybody can fill a plane, but can that plane be flown profitably on that full plane? If not, move on to another route.

I am assuming IAH-EZE is continuing, yes? So it's not a complete pull-out; merely a market adjustment.


Thanks....IAH-EZE remains in place, and has been a constant since CO launched it in October/November 2005. No change there.
 
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:11 am

chepos wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
Varsity1 wrote:

This is a ridiculous statement. Argentina is nowhere near Venezuela status.

I suspect AA is kicking UA's you know what out of EZE. It's a convenient excuse to pull out.


AA has operated JFK-EZE for years, and is the dominant US carrier in Argentina (up to 3 x daily MIA-EZE in peak season, plus daily DFW-EZE, weekly LAX-EZE, and daily JFK-EZE as well as the 2019 started MIA-COR) but AA has also drawn down some service to Argentina during the 2001 financial crisis there. Argentina's economy is boom and bust and has been for as long as time. UA pulling EWR-EZE is less about competition than about yields to Argentina.


LAX-EZE operates 3 times a week, supposedly the flight is exceeding expectations. As well as the recently launched MIA-COR.

It feels like this EWR!route was just re-launched.

UA relaunched EWR-EZE in October 2017, initially with a 767-300ER, then in the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2018, it operated with a 767-400ER. UA has a long history of service in the NY Area to EZE. It flew the route from JFK from the 1990s until the early 2000s when it was moved to IAD. In 2012, it was moved from IAD to EWR and then dropped in September 2013 due to Argentina's then economic crisis.


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PSAatSAN4Ever
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:14 am

Cointrin330 wrote:
PSAatSAN4Ever wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
UA pulling EWR-EZE is less about competition than about yields to Argentina.


Nailed it. Mike drop. Bravo, sir. Why waste money on a route that could easily be put to better use elsewhere in the network, either as increased frequency or the opening of a new route. Anybody can fill a plane, but can that plane be flown profitably on that full plane? If not, move on to another route.

I am assuming IAH-EZE is continuing, yes? So it's not a complete pull-out; merely a market adjustment.


Thanks....IAH-EZE remains in place, and has been a constant since CO launched it in October/November 2005. No change there.


The final piece of the story. Now, any guesses on the use of the current aircraft on future routes? Maybe this is one of the ways United will be expanding...
 
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chepos
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:15 am

Surprisingly, for the NW 19/20 AA will be the only airline flying EZE-NYC. AR i believe is suspending be route for the upcoming winter.


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Cointrin330
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:19 am

chepos wrote:
Surprisingly, for the NW 19/20 AA will be the only airline flying EZE-NYC. AR i believe is suspending be route for the upcoming winter.

AR isn't dropping JFK-EZE. They are reducing the frequency because they need an A332 to operate 2 x weekly EZE-MCO between December 2019 and March 2020.

AA for that matter, has been the constant on NYC-EZE for years. AR re-entered the market a few years ago after a long absence.

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AtomicGarden
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:28 am

dcajet wrote:
BreezyIAH wrote:
What's the customer base for the route?


Mostly Argentina POS with some NYC business (financial, mostly) thrown in for good measure.


Sorry, but what does POS mean? like point of origin? in that case, I would've thought it was the other way around, mostly Americans. Which actually with the devaluated peso should be coming in bigger numbers (tourists, that is), or so I usually read on the papers.
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dcajet
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:33 am

chepos wrote:
Surprisingly, for the NW 19/20 AA will be the only airline flying EZE-NYC. AR i believe is suspending be route for the upcoming winter.


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AR will be doing it 4x w, the other 3 days the plane will be used on the EZE-MCO route. AR has not spare capacity with the A330/40 fleet. It has to rob Peter to pay Paul.

AtomicGarden wrote:
Sorry, but what does POS mean?


POS= point of sale
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MIflyer12
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:47 am

dcajet wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
dcajet wrote:
Yields out of Argentina have dropped like a stone.


Do you mean to/from Argentina, or Argentina POS specifically?


In this specific case, Argentina POS. The NYC and MIA/MCO routes tend to be mostly Argentina POS. IAH, ATL, DFW & LAX are more US POS.


Thanks for clarifying that.
 
AtomicGarden
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:54 am

dcajet wrote:
chepos wrote:
Surprisingly, for the NW 19/20 AA will be the only airline flying EZE-NYC. AR i believe is suspending be route for the upcoming winter.


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AR will be doing it 4x w, the other 3 days the plane will be used on the EZE-MCO route. AR has not spare capacity with the A330/40 fleet. It has to rob Peter to pay Paul.

AtomicGarden wrote:
Sorry, but what does POS mean?


POS= point of sale


Thank you.

Also, AR is returning its 2 remaining A340s so clearly flights had to be cut
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aemoreira1981
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Sat Aug 24, 2019 1:42 am

This frees up two B764s...any chance that these might see transcon duty, replacing some p.s. frames?
 
maverick4002
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Sat Aug 24, 2019 2:06 am

What the hell, I just booked this route for a tip in November!
 
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marcecar10
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Sat Aug 24, 2019 2:11 am

Not so surprising after the primaries in Argentina and the imminent return of left-wing populism to government. Just think that the drop in the stock exchange in Buenos Aires is the second biggest in recorded history, just being beaten by the one in 1989 in civil war Sri Lanka.
 
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Sat Aug 24, 2019 2:16 am

chepos wrote:
Surprisingly, for the NW 19/20 AA will be the only airline flying EZE-NYC. AR i believe is suspending be route for the upcoming winter.


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AR’s suspension may be surprising, but given the fact that AA doesn’t have enough places to put widebodies over the winter (take a look at their PHX schedule), AA staying absolutely isn’t.
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MIflyer12
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Sat Aug 24, 2019 10:27 am

marcecar10 wrote:
Not so surprising after the primaries in Argentina and the imminent return of left-wing populism to government. Just think that the drop in the stock exchange in Buenos Aires is the second biggest in recorded history, just being beaten by the one in 1989 in civil war Sri Lanka.


Left-wing governments aren't necessarily an impediment to international air demand. China was still Communist last time I checked...

UA is more likely responding to a simple currency problem. If they keep Argentine point of sale prices flat in Pesos, their repatriated funds drop in USD (killing PRASM). If they raise Peso prices to keep USD repatriations constant, prices are now much higher in Pesos for Argentine POS and planes fly empty (killing PRASM).
 
Cointrin330
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Sat Aug 24, 2019 11:17 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
This frees up two B764s...any chance that these might see transcon duty, replacing some p.s. frames?


The 764's should start going in for Polaris mods over the winter and rotate in and out.
 
SJPBR
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Sat Aug 24, 2019 2:46 pm

chepos wrote:
Surprisingly, for the NW 19/20 AA will be the only airline flying EZE-NYC. AR i believe is suspending be route for the upcoming winter.


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There are a lot of passengers flying Buenos aires - USA using GRU as a connection point. Specially when GRU-AEP was permitted.
 
dcajet
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Sat Aug 24, 2019 3:20 pm

marcecar10 wrote:
Not so surprising after the primaries in Argentina and the imminent return of left-wing populism to government.


No one knows with any degree of certainty what flavor of peronism is coming. Nobody knows if this guy Alberto Fernandez is really the candidate or just Cristina Kirchner's puppet, or if she as the VP will be where real power lays. That is the problem. It is not about left or right any longer. 100% uncertainty. So the markets are reacting accordingly. 2020 will be a tough year for Argentinians. The day after the primaries, inquiries for Italian passports went through the roof, according to the Italian Consulates in Argentina.

I find it really ironic that the #2 man in Venezuela (Diosdado Cabello) had this choice words for Alberto Fernandez (who is not a left-wing populist by any stretch of the imagination): "Don't you think for a minute that those votes were for you". In other words, dude, those votes were for Cristina. That is the fear of Argentina's large middle class. Sigh.
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klwright69
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Sat Aug 24, 2019 3:40 pm

The fact that the flight uses two frames sure doesnt help the economics of the route either.
 
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marcecar10
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Sun Aug 25, 2019 12:28 am

dcajet wrote:
marcecar10 wrote:
Not so surprising after the primaries in Argentina and the imminent return of left-wing populism to government.


No one knows with any degree of certainty what flavor of peronism is coming. Nobody knows if this guy Alberto Fernandez is really the candidate or just Cristina Kirchner's puppet, or if she as the VP will be where real power lays. That is the problem. It is not about left or right any longer. 100% uncertainty. So the markets are reacting accordingly. 2020 will be a tough year for Argentinians. The day after the primaries, inquiries for Italian passports went through the roof, according to the Italian Consulates in Argentina.

I find it really ironic that the #2 man in Venezuela (Diosdado Cabello) had this choice words for Alberto Fernandez (who is not a left-wing populist by any stretch of the imagination): "Don't you think for a minute that those votes were for you". In other words, dude, those votes were for Cristina. That is the fear of Argentina's large middle class. Sigh.


Yes. That's what worries the markets, the possible return of Cristina Kirchner and her nationalist, populist anti-liberal anti-market rhetoric to a government, whether as the President or the VP. Let's not forget that before Macri, foreign airlines weren't allowed to expand in Argentina because of Cristina's moves to benefit the flag carrier, Aerolíneas Argentinas.

Macri wasn't great by any means, but going back to Fernandez and Cristina should have never been a plausible option. We'll find out in October, if the impact is going to be soft or really hard. The stock exchange movements and the economy state don't forecast anything good.

Anyway, probably better to stop with the politics.
 
dcajet
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Sun Aug 25, 2019 11:25 pm

SJPBR wrote:
chepos wrote:
Surprisingly, for the NW 19/20 AA will be the only airline flying EZE-NYC. AR i believe is suspending be route for the upcoming winter.


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There are a lot of passengers flying Buenos aires - USA using GRU as a connection point. Specially when GRU-AEP was permitted.


Both GRU and SCL receive a considerable number of connecting traffic from Argentina: SCL mostly to the US and Australia and GRU to Europe mostly and the US in lesser numbers. Fares are always lower than the nonstops from EZE.
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filipinoavgeek
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Mon Aug 26, 2019 2:27 am

I know this is probably offtopic to United, but does anyone know if and how the economic uncertainty in Argentina is affecting Norwegian and Flybondi?
 
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gatibosgru
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Mon Aug 26, 2019 2:35 am

dcajet wrote:
Varsity1 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Better suspend a flight too soon. You never know when Argentina will turn into Venezuela 2.0.


This is a ridiculous statement. Argentina is nowhere near Venezuela status.

I suspect AA is kicking UA's you know what out of EZE. It's a convenient excuse to pull out.


It is a slippery slope and while Argentina is nowhere near Venezuela, it could be rather soon if the Kirchners get back in power as it is expected. People are really concerned down there, but the difference in favor of the peronists seems too much to recover from in 60 days, when the general elections will be held.

Yields have also dropped like a stone for American. They just command the traveler's preference from Argentina. I would not be surprised if AA cuts back some frequencies or downgauges a route or two.


Regardless, it is a gross exaggeration to say Argentina will become Venezuela 2.0 anytime soon.
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dcajet
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Mon Aug 26, 2019 3:23 am

filipinoavgeek wrote:
I know this is probably offtopic to United, but does anyone know if and how the economic uncertainty in Argentina is affecting Norwegian and Flybondi?


Both have kept expanding and are benefiting from the increase in domestic travelers that has not stopped growing in spite of the crisis. Norwegian just announced two new destinations, USH and JUJ. They are constrained in any further growth because of the MAX grounding. There are no spare planes in Europe that can be sent to Argentina so any new flights have to be done at night, i.e., increasing daily usage of the fleet. The airline is working on US-Argentina flights, but not sure where they stand exactly. The peso devaluation may put a temporary pause there.

Flybondi has grown to be the #3 airline in Argentina and seems to have carved a niche for itself. The airline has announced more international flights to Brazil (GIG & FLN) which is always a destination that seems to do well, even in times of crisis.

Any threat to both airlines and JetSmart as well is not so much economic right now, but political. If the Fernandez/Kirchner ticket wins the election. they may try to revert some of the policies of the past 4 years in favor of Aerolineas Argentinas. The unions are certainly calling for that and given the fact that these 3 airlines are not unionized, which has incensed the labor movement, the uncertainty is there.
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NYKiwi
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:45 am

Makes it harder.to get to EZE from NYC sure we can go through IAH but that is it UA dont have a real partner GRU to EZE that you can accrue miles on
 
dcajet
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:14 pm

NYKiwi wrote:
Makes it harder.to get to EZE from NYC sure we can go through IAH but that is it UA dont have a real partner GRU to EZE that you can accrue miles on


Still have AA and AR nonstop from JFK. And if Star is your alliance of choice, you can always take a one stop flight with CM or AV. Deep South America is oneworld and Skyteam territory for the most part - ditto for the South Atlantic.
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berari
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Tue Aug 27, 2019 4:43 pm

Interesting to see UA being nimble in its decision making, pulling out when it can.
 
Cointrin330
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:32 pm

NYKiwi wrote:
Makes it harder.to get to EZE from NYC sure we can go through IAH but that is it UA dont have a real partner GRU to EZE that you can accrue miles on


Not really...AA is still there with a daily 772 from JFK and AR for the Winter, will fly JFK-EZE 4 times weekly. The A332 is being used to operate EZE-MCO the other 3 days.
 
geoshina
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:23 pm

If you wanna be adventurous you can do EWR-GRU with UA and GRU-EZE with either ET or TK. The connections times are really not good at all.
 
NYKiwi
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Tue Aug 27, 2019 8:06 pm

Yes i am a UA FF So star are really weak now in LATAM. Not opposed to flying through IAH but someone mentioned UA are using IAH as South America hub but its not that convenient for north east people due due to back tracking
 
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Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:53 pm

NYKiwi wrote:
Yes i am a UA FF So star are really weak now in LATAM. Not opposed to flying through IAH but someone mentioned UA are using IAH as South America hub but its not that convenient for north east people due due to back tracking


Of course UA are using IAH as a South America hub. Its the best option to do that. EWR and IAD are too far north and ORD doesnt have the demand or geography. It may be a backtrack for people from NY, but you cant be everything to everyone.
"I dance and laugh among the rotten"
 
Cointrin330
Posts: 1243
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2016 12:23 pm

Re: United to suspend EWR-EZE

Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:58 pm

NYKiwi wrote:
Yes i am a UA FF So star are really weak now in LATAM. Not opposed to flying through IAH but someone mentioned UA are using IAH as South America hub but its not that convenient for north east people due due to back tracking


I wouldn't call UA weak in Latin America. It has several key partners, including COPA and Avianca (though the latter's financial position is one of a few issues keeping UA from taking a bigger stake in AV). UA actually has a strong route map to Central and South America, but it is concentrated at IAH, which geographically, is the best of UA's hubs to provide the feed and the gateway to the continent. UA retains daily nonstop service from ORD, EWR, and IAD to GRU as well.

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