To the contrary, I am quite surprised. DFW-HKG has historically been murderers row for upgrades with zero cleared going out. Something definitely changed.
Business demand is clearly dropping lately - not surprising as I can certainly see some business trip to/from HK being delayed/pushed back until the situation stabilized a little bit more.
tphuang wrote:https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/ar ... apore-amid
here is the sad part for HK. Western business after this are going to rethink their long term location in Asia and a lot of them are going to move to Singapore. At least this is what I'm hearing through the grapevine.
Well, while there are grumbling about how companies may moved to Singapore, HK will always have the advantage of being in the backyard of mainland China.
Of course, the main concern for business would be how much longer HK can still be under "rule of law" that's independent from mainland China. The day "rule of law" disappear, HK is dead and business might just as well go to Shanghai or even Shenzhen. This is a place where Singapore would have advantage.
Anyway, back on topic.
Just got back from HKG yesterday. UA895 (ORD-HKG) Friday outbound. UA180 (HKG-EWR) return.
No protesters seen. Very "business as usual" except for more security presence outside terminal.
UA895 (77E) had poor loads and probably half full overall. Maybe 2/3.
UA180 (77W) had better loads (~90%) up front and almost full in back.
I personally wouldn't hesitate transiting through HKG if I had to make another last minute trip.
It has nothing to do with the airport anyway (There's no way HK gov't will allow disturbance there again), but rather, the HK economic outlook in general.
Someone posted PDEW stats here saying that the PRIMARY demand to HKG from the USA is from the coasts so of course SFO & EWR do better with more O&D. ORD survived on connections to SE Asia as well. The only reason the AA DFW-HKG flight works is to the Texas tech traffic from the DFW area and Latin America connections (plus CX connections). Not a surprise ORD-HKG is UA's weakest HKG flight.
It partially has to do with US economy as well.
Chicago, while a great city, is more or less stagnating economically. Economic growth in Midwestern US is also lagging behind the rest of US for the most part (MSP is a little bit of an exception IMHO, and no, I don't count North Dakota as most of the growth there are just due to the oil boom)
Meanwhile, West Coast (SEA/SFO/LAX) is growing, as is Boston/NYC/DC (and Philly to lesser extent). Places like DFW, Austin, and Houston never stop growing, as is a few southern metro like ATL, CLT, RDU, and BNA.http://money.com/money/5650327/map-of-e ... -by-state/
In another word, there's absolutely no surprise that ORD-HKG is the weakest of the 3 HKG flight. The demographics matter also - SFO and NYC (along with LAX) has by far the most people from HK or nearby region, while HKer (Chinese in general actually) population in places like Texas are also growing quick. Midwest? Outside of Chicago there's just not a big Chinese community, and the one in Chicago is not exactly growing, either.