Populism 101

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador left open the possibility that the government acquires the extinct Mexicana de Aviacion, as long as they have the funds and it is something viable in cost-benefit.

At a press conference, the president was questioned about whether his government could acquire Mexicana de Aviacion.

“We would have to see if we have the funds, if it is viable, because we are representatives of the citizens and we have to take care of the budget. It has to be analyzed that there is justice but also the cost-benefit, ”he replied.

He argued that nothing should be ruled out and talk to the workers who were laid off.

Some are suggesting that the government may force Interjet to close (see: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1429885) and with its assets relaunch Mexicana.

https://aviacionaldia.com/2019/08/presi ... acion.html

Nothing quite like the government calling the shots and managing an airline with utmost efficiency.

dcajet wrote:

Some are suggesting that the government may force Interjet to close and with its assets relaunch Mexicana.

Interjet's CEO is the grandson of the President of Mexico from 1946-1952.

Volaris has 75 Airbus narrow-bodies and Interjet has 65 Airbus narrow-bodies. VivaAerobus (owned by a bus company) has 33 Airbus narrow-bodies.

Aeroméxico has 47 B737 Next Generation jets, and has 60 MAXs on order (with 6 delivered). Aeroméxico is 49% owned by Delta and has the only Mexican widebodies, a fleet of 18 Dreamliners). With 40% of its seats on Dreamliners, Aeroméxico's narrow body fleet is largely consumed with either international flying or on domestic routes that will feed it's Dreamliner international flights. Aeroméxico Connect Fleet has 57 jets, 47 of which have 99 seats. Given the shorter ranges in Mexico, and the fact that there is no pilot scope clause like in the USA, Aeroméxico Connect is more of a competitor with the other three mainstream airlines.

Interjet and Volaris both offer 1 class service, but Interjet has 4-6 fewer rows in their configurations. While once high flying, Interjet has financially stalled in recent years.

Airbus A320neo | Interjet 162 seats | Volaris 186 seats
Airbus A321neo | Interjet 192 seats | Volaris 230 seats

Despite the configuration differences, the common Airbus fleet would make a merger easy.

There have been a number of financial decisions that have been questioned: cancellation of the new airport, the proposed dual airport system for Mexico City, the Train Maya and and an upsurge in violence. Grow predictions have been reduced and there is less foreign investment on the horizon. Mexicana has a lot of debt, unpaid airport and jet fuel fees, a huge debt to employees. It will be interesting.

PacoMartin wrote:

Despite the configuration differences, the common Airbus fleet would make a merger easy.

There are lots of things that don't matter much in a merger, and fleet commonality is on that list for any two carriers that already have subtypes in an economic quantity.

PacoMartin wrote:

dcajet wrote:

Some are suggesting that the government may force Interjet to close and with its assets relaunch Mexicana.

Interjet's CEO is the grandson of the President of Mexico from 1946-1952.

Volaris has 75 Airbus narrow-bodies and Interjet has 65 Airbus narrow-bodies. VivaAerobus (owned by a bus company) has 33 Airbus narrow-bodies.

Aeroméxico has 47 B737 Next Generation jets, and has 60 MAXs on order (with 6 delivered). Aeroméxico is 49% owned by Delta and has the only Mexican widebodies, a fleet of 18 Dreamliners). With 40% of its seats on Dreamliners, Aeroméxico's narrow body fleet is largely consumed with either international flying or on domestic routes that will feed it's Dreamliner international flights. Aeroméxico Connect Fleet has 57 jets, 47 of which have 99 seats. Given the shorter ranges in Mexico, and the fact that there is no pilot scope clause like in the USA, Aeroméxico Connect is more of a competitor with the other three mainstream airlines.

Interjet and Volaris both offer 1 class service, but Interjet has 4-6 fewer rows in their configurations. While once high flying, Interjet has financially stalled in recent years.

Airbus A320neo | Interjet 162 seats | Volaris 186 seats
Airbus A321neo | Interjet 192 seats | Volaris 230 seats

Despite the configuration differences, the common Airbus fleet would make a merger easy.

I am not sure why, but how did Volaris find its way into this story? Has a merger between the two been mentioned already? AFAIK, Volaris seems to be on much firmer ground than Interjet.

I don't like the president neither any of his actions... but as rather "random" as this idea sounds, I'd totally back this up. Especially since we'll finally have another flag carrier, and even better, One World.

Odd to bring this up now... feels like Mexicana has been gone a while.

Newark727 wrote:

Odd to bring this up now... feels like Mexicana has been gone a while.

While the airline has been gone since 2010, their MRO continues to be active. They do work for many airlines in the region, such as LATAM, Flybondi, etc.

There have been some attempts to bring the airline back to life since then but all have failed and a judge declared the airline bankrupt in 2014.

If Mexicana comes back, will they bring back the 767?

These days, can Mexico really support 4 carriers and more than 1 full-service carrier? As for 4O, the major assets it has now are its slots at MEX and at JFK (when AM and DL began their JV, slots at both airports had to be relinquished). I have actually suggested before that 4O put up one of its slot pairs at JFK up for lease, although it's for a quick turnaround. If Mexicana comes back, I expect that it would be from 4O's assets and fleet, but with the legal entity of 4O remaining.

The other thing I noticed is: Mexico is all Airbus except for the flag carrier, whose mainline fleet is all Boeing. Might the hot and high of MEX be part of why?

TTailedTiger wrote:

Wasn't Mexicana based primarily on the A318? It doesn't get much more foolish than that.

Airbus may have given them a deal they couldn't refuse. The A318 has excellent hot and high performance. It performs even better than the 73G.

Some of Mexicana's A318s are still flying with Avianca. MEX is a hot and high airport.

TTailedTiger wrote:

Wasn't Mexicana based primarily on the A318? It doesn't get much more foolish than that.

They had something like ten of them I think? Not enough to say they were based on the type, they had more A319 and A320s.

Say they do in fact relaunch MX, where would they be based? They can't get into MEX unless 4O an Y4 give the slots "back" Is there enough room for another carrier in the market? With the economic crisis that is bound to happen in Mexico I doubt it. As much as I'd love to see MX back in the air I really doubt something will come to fruition coming from this president..

What was the longest Mexicana A318 route?

MIflyer12 wrote:

There are lots of things that don't matter much in a merger, and fleet commonality is on that list for any two carriers that already have subtypes in an economic quantity.

Yet Alaska Airlines is widely reported as having difficulty absorbing Virgin America's 70+ Airbus fleet. Before the MAX crashes they were widely reported as anxious to restore an all B737 fleet.

Would they rejoin OW? I know Interjet was in talks of joining but it never proceeded. They do codeshare with AA, BA, IB, LATAM, etc.

And the taxpayers thought the presidential 787 was a waste of money...

Fleet commanality might not be top of the list for politicians dreaming these things up. But it might effect the ultimate outcome of such an enterprise.

Bankrupt but re-invested Interjet 4O: the new TLC-airport based Mexicana ?!

PacoMartin wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

There are lots of things that don't matter much in a merger, and fleet commonality is on that list for any two carriers that already have subtypes in an economic quantity.

Yet Alaska Airlines is widely reported as having difficulty absorbing Virgin America's 70+ Airbus fleet. Before the MAX crashes they were widely reported as anxious to restore an all B737 fleet.

Widely reported? Do you mean wildly speculated on by users of this site?

But MEX is slot controlled?

PacoMartin wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

There are lots of things that don't matter much in a merger, and fleet commonality is on that list for any two carriers that already have subtypes in an economic quantity.

Yet Alaska Airlines is widely reported as having difficulty absorbing Virgin America's 70+ Airbus fleet. Before the MAX crashes they were widely reported as anxious to restore an all B737 fleet.

Widely reported where? Above statement is inaccurate. If anything, the MAX crisis may have given AS second thoughts about putting the proverbial eggs in one basket. The "Proudly All Boeing" days are behind us, I'm afraid.

Ishrion wrote:

Would they rejoin OW? I know Interjet was in talks of joining but it never proceeded. They do codeshare with AA, BA, IB, LATAM, etc.

blacksoviet wrote:

If Mexicana comes back, will they bring back the 767?

Are these serious questions? These are comments made by the Mexican president most likely "off the cuff" during a press conference, while answering a question, and consistent with his ideology of state intervention in the economy and businesses. It's grandstanding that makes him appear on the side of the ex-Mexicana workers. There are many other more fundamental questions that need to be asked before worrying on fleet or alliances. Like, how does this benefit the Mexican taxpayer & traveler?

dcajet wrote:

Widely reported where? Above statement is inaccurate. If anything, the MAX crisis may have given AS second thoughts about putting the proverbial eggs in one basket. The "Proudly All Boeing" days are behind us, I'm afraid.

Alaska Air executives have previously evangelized about the simplicity and cost-savings from using a single jet model.
https://www.nwnewsnetwork.org/post/alaska-and-virgin-integration-always-challenge-airline-mergers
The core meaning of the word evangelize is to "bring good news" for those people who only associate the word with various Christian denominations.

Alaska Airlines May Order a Ton of Boeing 737 MAX Jets in 2019 (April 14,2009)
Alaska Airlines could significantly improve its profitability by getting back to operating a single fleet type, and Boeing may be especially motivated to find new orders for its troubled 737 MAX program this year.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/04/14/alaska-airlines-may-order-a-ton-of-boeing-737-max.aspx

dcajet wrote:

I am not sure why, but how did Volaris find its way into this story? Has a merger between the two been mentioned already? AFAIK, Volaris seems to be on much firmer ground than Interjet.

Volaris is on much firmer ground than Interjet. When any airline seems to be in trouble it is natural to speculate on which airline might purchase them.

aemoreira1981 wrote:

The other thing I noticed is: Mexico is all Airbus except for the flag carrier, whose mainline fleet is all Boeing. Might the hot and high of MEX be part of why?

With regard to narrow body aircraft (above Bombardier size) there seems to be a trend towards newer airlines favoring Airbus jets, while established airlines already flying Boeing tend to purchase the B737 Next Generation and MAX.

Volaris founded 2004
Interjet founded March 2005
VivaAerobús founded 2006

PacoMartin wrote:

Alaska Air executives have previously evangelized about the simplicity and cost-savings from using a single jet model.
https://www.nwnewsnetwork.org/post/alaska-and-virgin-integration-always-challenge-airline-mergers
The core meaning of the word evangelize is to "bring good news" for those people who only associate the word with various Christian denominations.

Alaska Airlines May Order a Ton of Boeing 737 MAX Jets in 2019 (April 14,2009)
Alaska Airlines could significantly improve its profitability by getting back to operating a single fleet type, and Boeing may be especially motivated to find new orders for its troubled 737 MAX program this year.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/04/14/alaska-airlines-may-order-a-ton-of-boeing-737-max.aspx

Well, one of those articles is from 2016... so pretty old by now. And the other one is from April... and here we are almost 5 months later and the MAX is still grounded. And I would take what Motley Fool writes with a grain of salt.

Again this is speculation. You will see Airbus at Alaska for some more time now.

dcajet wrote:

[Again this is speculation. You will see Airbus at Alaska for some more time now.

When you state "you will see Airbus at Alaska for some more time now", I would call that speculation as well.

What is not speculation is that Alaska delayed entry into service for the MAX jets until this summer for some reason. I know I read that was because they had run into some unexpected expenses in fleet integration from the purchase of Virgin America.

Anyway, this is a forum, not a news feed. A certain amount of speculation goes with the territory.

PacoMartin wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

There are lots of things that don't matter much in a merger, and fleet commonality is on that list for any two carriers that already have subtypes in an economic quantity.

Yet Alaska Airlines is widely reported as having difficulty absorbing Virgin America's 70+ Airbus fleet. Before the MAX crashes they were widely reported as anxious to restore an all B737 fleet.

If by widely reported, you mean wildly exaggerated, then sure.

Remember that Y4 is part owned by Indigo Partners, same with F9, JA and W6.

PacoMartin wrote:

dcajet wrote:

[Again this is speculation. You will see Airbus at Alaska for some more time now.

When you state "you will see Airbus at Alaska for some more time now", I would call that speculation as well.

What is not speculation is that Alaska delayed entry into service for the MAX jets until this summer for some reason. I know I read that was because they had run into some unexpected expenses in fleet integration from the purchase of Virgin America.

Anyway, this is a forum, not a news feed. A certain amount of speculation goes with the territory.

Well. you are going to see Airbus at AS at least until the leases expire: Was it 2025-27?

There's no reason at this point to resuscitate a dead carrier. The best thing Obrador could do is get the employees their residual wages back and pay out pensions to former employees. MX's bankruptcy was incredibly messy compared to that of American carriers, and the lack of government support hurt the workers. You can't go back after the fact and put all the planes back in the sky as though nothing happened. That will simply be a way for new executives, likely political appointees, to siphon off funds meant to get the carrier started again.

I would not oppose Mexico gaining a national carrier. Unfortunately AeroMexico has largely become Delta South, so why not form a new national carrier using the historic and to many beloved Mexicana brand.

PacoMartin wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

There are lots of things that don't matter much in a merger, and fleet commonality is on that list for any two carriers that already have subtypes in an economic quantity.

Yet Alaska Airlines is widely reported as having difficulty absorbing Virgin America's 70+ Airbus fleet. Before the MAX crashes they were widely reported as anxious to restore an all B737 fleet.

Why is AS having trouble absorbing VX’s Airbus fleet? From a fleet commonality perspective? Or just too many aircraft for the size of a profitable network?

Ishrion wrote:

Would they rejoin OW? I know Interjet was in talks of joining but it never proceeded. They do codeshare with AA, BA, IB, LATAM, etc.

Oddly enough, if I remember correctly, Mexicana never left oneworld. In fact, on the old oneworld website, they were still listed as an ‘inactive member’. So (if indeed, this whole thing were to pan out,) I would assume they wouldn’t need to rejoin/pay fees? Also I think they only interline with BA yet, not codeshare...

Also, didn’t Interjet mainly take over most of Mexicana’s slots at MEX? I would have thought Interjet is a perfect oneworld connect candidate, but no progress on that either...

Could this thread be related to this one?

Tax man comes after Interjet; SSJ fleet put up for sale

mercure1 wrote:

I would not oppose Mexico gaining a national carrier. Unfortunately AeroMexico has largely become Delta South, so why not form a new national carrier using the historic and to many beloved Mexicana brand.

These resuscitation attempts do not usually work out. And from a president who has wasted billions of work and resources on canceling the reworked MEX airport? Such Napoleonic self-idolatry should not be tolerated anywhere. Revanchism, isn't it called? Franco and Kirchner.

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador left open the possibility that the government acquires the extinct Mexicana de Aviacion, as long as they have the funds and it is something viable in cost-benefit.

They probably don't have either, so that's likely a confirmation

dcajet wrote:

Well. you are going to see Airbus at AS at least until the leases expire: Was it 2025-27?

But as the first A321 was only delivered in April 2017, and the 9th one was delivered on 15 Jun 2019, I would think any least is a minimum of 8 years.

Aircraft Type Current/Future Avg. Age
Airbus A319 10 11.9 Years
Airbus A320 53 9.0 Years
Airbus A321 9/1 1.6 Years

The A321 lease is posted online, but it is a massive read.
https://www.lawinsider.com/contracts/2o ... orporation

The position of the CEO after the merger was they were going to keep the jets until their leases expire, and they would probably cancel the unfilled order. The question is how, if at all, will that change in the post MAX crisis world. One obvious answer is that AS should not put their eggs in one basked and hold onto the Airbus jets. The other position is they should take advantage of the premium price on all Airus narrow-bodies at present, and the expected willingness of Boeing to make a deal with anyone who want to purchase more MAXes.

I wish he'd just focus on the economy and the violence. after 13 years in mexico, i don't feel as safe as I used to.

no ego projects please.