ly204
Topic Author
Posts: 120
Joined: Wed Aug 29, 2007 10:33 am

What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 2:06 pm

Looking simply at the facts (eg 737 max grounding, 777X EIS delays, NSA delays, MOM delays, 787 manufacturing quality issues), what is Boeing’s game plan? Airbus is capitalizing on Boeing’s struggles at every turn and Boeing can’t seem to gain traction in even one of these threads. My specific questions are: what’s happening to the composition of Boeing’s board? What’s happening to their C-suite? What’s happening to their level of investment in engineering?

Boeing has such a proud legacy and it seems that dramatic steps need to be taken to get Boeing back on solid footing.
 
SteelChair
Posts: 1102
Joined: Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:37 am

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 3:24 pm

Been discussed over and over. Nothing is being done. Too big to fail. Insulated from market realities.
 
windian425
Posts: 184
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 9:22 am

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 3:54 pm

Truth is, Airbus cannot and has not really capitalized on Boeing woes.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 5638
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 4:50 pm

ly204 wrote:
My specific questions are: what’s happening to the composition of Boeing’s board? What’s happening to their C-suite? What’s happening to their level of investment in engineering?


Top exec changes are commonly announced. Changes to the composition of Boards at top publicly-traded U.S. firms are always announced. Firms usually have board bios up, with dates, prior positions, and other board assignments. So, if you want to do the work to get specific answers, proper answers will be there.

https://www.boeing.com/company/general- ... nance.page

One could just as easily have structured a similar argument with respect to Airbus not long ago: A380 wiring defects and delays, A350 market rejection that led to the A350XWB, A400M cost overruns and bailout. Big aerospace isn't an easy business - as everyone from BBD to Mitsubishi to GE and Pratt will tell you.
 
User avatar
DL717
Posts: 1676
Joined: Wed May 23, 2018 10:53 pm

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 5:16 pm

Hopefully they have a team of people locked in a building trying to figure out how to get their act together.
Welcome to Nothingburgers. May I take your order?
 
caljn
Posts: 244
Joined: Sun Oct 14, 2007 9:37 pm

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 5:46 pm

ly204 wrote:
Looking simply at the facts (eg 737 max grounding, 777X EIS delays, NSA delays, MOM delays, 787 manufacturing quality issues), what is Boeing’s game plan? Airbus is capitalizing on Boeing’s struggles at every turn and Boeing can’t seem to gain traction in even one of these threads. My specific questions are: what’s happening to the composition of Boeing’s board? What’s happening to their C-suite? What’s happening to their level of investment in engineering?

Boeing has such a proud legacy and it seems that dramatic steps need to be taken to get Boeing back on solid footing.


Relax. The sky isn't falling.
 
airzona11
Posts: 1518
Joined: Wed Dec 17, 2014 5:44 am

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 5:48 pm

SteelChair wrote:
Been discussed over and over. Nothing is being done. Too big to fail. Insulated from market realities.


Nothing is being done? 777 Engine issues have literally happened to every recent plane type introduction. 737s are grounded, not permanently. What market realities are they insulated from? What about Boeing’s massively successful non commercial segment?
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 9426
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 6:17 pm

ly204 wrote:
Airbus is capitalizing on Boeing’s struggles at every turn and Boeing can’t seem to gain traction in even one of these threads.


Sure-if you ignore the current success of the 787, attempts to get A350 costs down, failure of the A380, struggle of the A330neo to gain market traction, Airbus’s current non factor in freighter market, continuing struggle to get A320neos into customer’s hands on time (a big often overlooked here doozy that is costing Airbus a lot of money), continuing struggle to increase A320 rates profitably, bribe investigations, etc.

This isn’t to bash Airbus, but the 737Max grounding makes it very easy to make up a “sky is falling” (as another member put it) scenario in your head. Both OEMs have their struggles, it is not just about number of planes sold and what not. Boeing will recover.
Last edited by Polot on Sun Aug 25, 2019 6:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
BoeingGuy
Posts: 6314
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2010 6:01 pm

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 6:20 pm

airzona11 wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
Been discussed over and over. Nothing is being done. Too big to fail. Insulated from market realities.


Nothing is being done? 777 Engine issues have literally happened to every recent plane type introduction. 737s are grounded, not permanently. What market realities are they insulated from? What about Boeing’s massively successful non commercial segment?


Let me try to address some of the questions from my opinion:

1) The leadership that ran the company into the ground is mostly gone. Honestly, Dennis and Kevin are about the only decent CEO and President of BCA that I’ve seen during my long time there - I liked Jim Albaugh too. I don’t think they should be fired. They inherited the mess, didn’t create it. When you’ve had morons like Phil Condit, Ron Woodard, Tom Schick, Harry Stoneface, and Jim McCowering as your “leaders”, Dennis is a large breath of fresh air.

2) While I’ve never ever seen any intentional disregard for Safety, clearly some terrible screw ups happened. I can tell you there is a big emphasis on safety and making sure this never happens again. After all the false drama and accusations on A.net, the simple fact is that some wrong assumptions were made about crew reaction to the 737 issue. I can tell you those assumptions will not be made again. I can see some things on the 777X program where they are almost overreacting to corner case issues, but that’s okay.

3) The 777X engine delays are unfortunate, but will be overcome and it will be a great airplane.

4) The NMA will happen. It will be a resounding success. You don’t have 2000 people working full time on a program that isn’t going to launched. Think about it for a minute. Do you think it would be a strategically smart move to launch a new airplane while another model is grounded?

These are all my personal opinions, of course. I don’t represent any official responses.
 
Andrw
Posts: 7
Joined: Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:55 am

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 6:28 pm

I'm not an expert, but I would think, that Boeing's plan for near future is to avoid paying compensations to all airlines suffering from MAX grounding. I flew LO few weeks back and had a word with flight attendant about the LO company and plans etc. It seems that LO will struggle to get compensation for their 6 MAX grounding. As I was told "Boeing does not wish to pay anything, because they are afraid of going bankrupt if they do".
Now, before all of You start splashing buckets of guano at me for posting something like this, I do realise, that flight attendants are equally reliable source of information to ground crew when it comes to company's finances (with no insult to anyone), but I think, they are far closer to that than most of us.
BoeingGuy, You sound like You might be closer to the topic, any thoughts about compensations for the airlines for MAX grounding?
 
mmo
Posts: 1782
Joined: Thu Apr 18, 2013 3:04 pm

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 6:35 pm

Boeing has free cash flow of about $15 billion/year right now. In 2018, they had $13.8. They have a long way to go before they are in a position to worry about any financial problems.
If we weren't all crazy we'd all go insane!
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 21239
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 6:41 pm

Polot wrote:
Sure-if you ignore the current success of the 787, attempts to get A350 costs down, failure of the A380, struggle of the A330neo to gain market traction, Airbus’s current non factor in freighter market, continuing struggle to get A320neos into customer’s hands on time (a big often overlooked here doozy that is costing Airbus a lot of money), continuing struggle to increase A320 rates profitably, bribe investigations, etc.

Not to mention one round of A380 cracked wing rib feet that were expensive to fix and now another round of inspections for wing cracks on the outer rear spars, A400M delays / writeoffs, etc.

This isn’t to bash Airbus, but the 737Max grounding makes it very easy to make up a “sky is falling” (as another member put it) scenario in your head. Both OEMs have their struggles, it is not just about number of planes sold and what not. Boeing will recover.

:checkmark:

BoeingGuy wrote:
4) The NMA will happen. It will be a resounding success. You don’t have 2000 people working full time on a program that isn’t going to launched. Think about it for a minute. Do you think it would be a strategically smart move to launch a new airplane while another model is grounded?

:veryhappy: :veryhappy: :veryhappy:
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 1441
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 6:59 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
airzona11 wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
Been discussed over and over. Nothing is being done. Too big to fail. Insulated from market realities.


Nothing is being done? 777 Engine issues have literally happened to every recent plane type introduction. 737s are grounded, not permanently. What market realities are they insulated from? What about Boeing’s massively successful non commercial segment?


Let me try to address some of the questions from my opinion:

1) The leadership that ran the company into the ground is mostly gone. Honestly, Dennis and Kevin are about the only decent CEO and President of BCA that I’ve seen during my long time there - I liked Jim Albaugh too. I don’t think they should be fired. They inherited the mess, didn’t create it. When you’ve had morons like Phil Condit, Ron Woodard, Tom Schick, Harry Stoneface, and Jim McCowering as your “leaders”, Dennis is a large breath of fresh air.

2) While I’ve never ever seen any intentional disregard for Safety, clearly some terrible screw ups happened. I can tell you there is a big emphasis on safety and making sure this never happens again. After all the false drama and accusations on A.net, the simple fact is that some wrong assumptions were made about crew reaction to the 737 issue. I can tell you those assumptions will not be made again. I can see some things on the 777X program where they are almost overreacting to corner case issues, but that’s okay.

3) The 777X engine delays are unfortunate, but will be overcome and it will be a great airplane.

4) The NMA will happen. It will be a resounding success. You don’t have 2000 people working full time on a program that isn’t going to launched. Think about it for a minute. Do you think it would be a strategically smart move to launch a new airplane while another model is grounded?

These are all my personal opinions, of course. I don’t represent any official responses.


Please add Alan Mulally to the good guy list in 1), besides for leading the 777 program, the commercial airplane division up until 2005, but saw the writing on the wall when McCowering came in. Alan went to Ford where he got things together sufficient that Ford survived 2008 when both GM and Chrysler went BK.

To me the jury is out on divestitures that Boeing did like with Spirit, but the worst was the MBA approach of "let's outsource even design" while being clueless about outsourcing does not reduce risk if the sub is incompetent. One thing I like with Dennis is the trend to bring a lot of things back in house.

The NMA almost has to happen, I cannot see any other approach that allows the transition to a new NSA, going from rate 10 to rate 60 in a reasonable 5 years. The NMA is the dress rehearsal, if the NSA replaces the 737-9 and -10 leaving the 8 in production for an extra decade. Buying Embraer commercial synches well with this approach.

At some point the 747 and 767 lines will eventually close but that is 6-7 years out for the 747 and probably 15 years for the 767 because of the KC-46. But what model will be the replacement freighter?
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 3082
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 7:07 pm

One poster has suggested that a revamped 787-8 could both be a very long range passenger and successor freighter to the 767. It would not be that much larger than a 767 which has been amazingly right sized for freighter operations.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
bob75013
Posts: 867
Joined: Tue Jun 23, 2015 5:05 pm

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 8:05 pm

Andrw wrote:
I'm not an expert, but I would think, that Boeing's plan for near future is to avoid paying compensations to all airlines suffering from MAX grounding. I flew LO few weeks back and had a word with flight attendant about the LO company and plans etc. It seems that LO will struggle to get compensation for their 6 MAX grounding. As I was told "Boeing does not wish to pay anything, because they are afraid of going bankrupt if they do".



Yup, you're right. That shows how little FAs (or at least this one) knows about finnces.
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 8425
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 8:10 pm

mmo wrote:
Boeing has free cash flow of about $15 billion/year right now. In 2018, they had $13.8. They have a long way to go before they are in a position to worry about any financial problems.


How did you get to 15 billion free cash flow? 15.3 billion USD is the net operating cash flow for 2018. If you than deduct the net investing cash flow 4.6 billion USD, you get a free cash flow of 10.7 billion USD for 2018.

If we look in the Q2 2019 numbers from Boeing we see an net operating cash flow of 4.7 billion in Q1 and minus 0.6 billion in Q2. Again you have to deduct cash flow to investment.
According to the form Q10 investments in the first half year amount to about 1.6 billion USD.
So the free cash flow for the first half year of 2019 amounts to 4.7 - 0.6 - 1.6 = 2.5 billion.

If we now think about that Q1 did still saw full 737 deliveries, whereas Q2 falls mainly into the grounding period, that explains the difference in net operating cash flow.
One can hardly imagine a positive net operating cash flow for Q3 and Q4, even if deliveries should start again in Q4.
Free cash flow should come out worse, as I hardly expect Boeing to be able to stop investments completely for Q3 and Q4.

I can hardly agree with your statement that Boeing has a free cash flow of 15 billion USD right now.

I have the feeling that some posters here confuse net operating cash flow with free cash flow.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 21239
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 9:03 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
One poster has suggested that a revamped 787-8 could both be a very long range passenger and successor freighter to the 767. It would not be that much larger than a 767 which has been amazingly right sized for freighter operations.

The main problem with that theory is the wing span of 787 (or A330) is too big to fit into 767 gates.

The industry will eventually have to transition, but for now 767s are cheap to buy, perform well, and will have support for decades to come due to the tanker program, so it will be hard for anything to knock 767 off its perch.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 8425
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 9:27 pm

Revelation wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
One poster has suggested that a revamped 787-8 could both be a very long range passenger and successor freighter to the 767. It would not be that much larger than a 767 which has been amazingly right sized for freighter operations.

The main problem with that theory is the wing span of 787 (or A330) is too big to fit into 767 gates.

The industry will eventually have to transition, but for now 767s are cheap to buy, perform well, and will have support for decades to come due to the tanker program, so it will be hard for anything to knock 767 off its perch.


When Boeing has got some operational experience with the 777-9, I could imagine Boeing doing a folding wing for the 787. It would have to fold 4.1 m or about 13.5 feet on each side. I could even imagine an reduced span version to reduce the size of the folding part.

It would be more difficult for Airbus with the A330neo and its 64 m span.
 
airzona11
Posts: 1518
Joined: Wed Dec 17, 2014 5:44 am

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 11:36 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
Revelation wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
One poster has suggested that a revamped 787-8 could both be a very long range passenger and successor freighter to the 767. It would not be that much larger than a 767 which has been amazingly right sized for freighter operations.

The main problem with that theory is the wing span of 787 (or A330) is too big to fit into 767 gates.

The industry will eventually have to transition, but for now 767s are cheap to buy, perform well, and will have support for decades to come due to the tanker program, so it will be hard for anything to knock 767 off its perch.


When Boeing has got some operational experience with the 777-9, I could imagine Boeing doing a folding wing for the 787. It would have to fold 4.1 m or about 13.5 feet on each side. I could even imagine an reduced span version to reduce the size of the folding part.

It would be more difficult for Airbus with the A330neo and its 64 m span.


Interesting observation, had not thought about that.
 
airlineworker
Posts: 93
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2019 1:20 am

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 11:38 pm

#1 priority get the MAX back in the air. I figure with the high level of attention given by the media and pundits regarding the MAX, when it flies, it will be safest plane in the sky. I was hoping for the 779-9 and 777-8 to be further along by now but it is what it is.
 
User avatar
SEPilot
Posts: 5450
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:21 pm

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:12 am

The manufacturing of commercial airliners has got to be the most difficult and unforgiving business that there is. That is why there are only two players left for all intents and purposes. The entire world needs both Boeing and Airbus to succeed, and I am sincerely hoping that BoeingGuy’s take is correct. It would be wonderful if the leadership was taken again by people whose #1 goal was building a safe, high quality product rather than squeezing every dime of profit out of it. I am firmly convinced that if you focus on quality and pleasing your customers, profits will follow. But focusing too much on profits often lets unforeseen problems sneak up and bite you in the butt, which is exactly what happened with the MAX and with the 787 development. I hope they have learned their lesson.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
cledaybuck
Posts: 1522
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:07 pm

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 1:30 am

The commercial gameplan is to get the MAX back in the air safely around the world. Nothing else really matters until that is done.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
IPFreely
Posts: 2394
Joined: Sun Dec 24, 2006 8:26 am

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 1:45 am

ly204 wrote:
Airbus is capitalizing on Boeing’s struggles at every turn and Boeing can’t seem to gain traction in even one of these threads.


I usually ignore silly posts. But in this case I do have to ask -- what are these "threads"?
 
foxtrotbravo21
Posts: 22
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2016 2:52 am

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 2:27 am

The main thing is to get its 777X ie 777-9 off the ground and for the intermediate term to redesign a new plane from ground up to replace the 737-8/9 as it does need a new narow body plane to replace its 737 design era plane.
 
ly204
Topic Author
Posts: 120
Joined: Wed Aug 29, 2007 10:33 am

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 2:41 am

airlineworker wrote:
#1 priority get the MAX back in the air. I figure with the high level of attention given by the media and pundits regarding the MAX, when it flies, it will be safest plane in the sky. I was hoping for the 779-9 and 777-8 to be further along by now but it is what it is.


I hope you’re right, but I think the MAX runs the risk of being like the MD-11...poorly engineered, warmed over design that is ultimately never fully trusted from a safety perspective.
 
ly204
Topic Author
Posts: 120
Joined: Wed Aug 29, 2007 10:33 am

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 2:42 am

IPFreely wrote:
ly204 wrote:
Airbus is capitalizing on Boeing’s struggles at every turn and Boeing can’t seem to gain traction in even one of these threads.


I usually ignore silly posts. But in this case I do have to ask -- what are these "threads"?


By threads, a better choice of word I could have used was program perhaps.
 
filipinoavgeek
Posts: 247
Joined: Mon Mar 04, 2019 1:18 am

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 3:03 am

ly204 wrote:
ultimately never fully trusted from a safety perspective.


If I recall correctly, the failure of the MD-11 has less to do with the Swissair crash or the DC-10's safety record, but more to do with its failure to meet promised performance goals, along with the arrival of more efficient and newer clean-sheet designs such as the 777 and the A330.
 
BoeingGuy
Posts: 6314
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2010 6:01 pm

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 3:21 am

filipinoavgeek wrote:
ly204 wrote:
ultimately never fully trusted from a safety perspective.


If I recall correctly, the failure of the MD-11 has less to do with the Swissair crash or the DC-10's safety record, but more to do with its failure to meet promised performance goals, along with the arrival of more efficient and newer clean-sheet designs such as the 777 and the A330.


SW111 was an after market IFE system that had nothing to do with the airplane design. However, McD did have an incredibly unwieldy, confusing and ineffective checklist for smoke events. That has since been fixed throughout the industry.
 
strfyr51
Posts: 3894
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 3:44 am

[quote="foxtrotbravo21"]The main thing is to get its 777X ie 777-9 off the ground and for the intermediate term to redesign a new plane from ground up to replace the 737-8/9 as it does need a new narow body plane to replace its 737 design era plane.[/quotethe fact that Boeing is being super cautious? Is because they already messed up on the B737 series and can't afford another Engineering "F'UP" ! They've got to go slower and get it Right! And? This time it's the Engine and not the airframe!
 
User avatar
BoeingVista
Posts: 1998
Joined: Mon Jan 12, 2009 9:54 am

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 3:54 am

Wring as much value out of existing designs, bully FAA into seeing safety issues their way, de-unionise workforce and depress their wages, increase shareholder value, golden parachutes for failed upper management.

That is all.
BV
 
Sokes
Posts: 239
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 4:18 am

The game plan are short term profits to increase bonuses for managers. It's not unique to Boeing and it's a consequence of faulty government regulation.
But it's industry and not you or I who give former ministers who aren't reelected to parliament "advisory contracts". So nothing will change.
SEPilot is right when he writes the world needs both Boeing and Airbus.
The sylabus in schools needs to give more time to study Roosevelt. But then school history is meant to provide a certain level of "show of" knowledge, not understanding.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
BoeingGuy
Posts: 6314
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2010 6:01 pm

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 5:13 am

BoeingVista wrote:
Wring as much value out of existing designs, bully FAA into seeing safety issues their way, de-unionise workforce and depress their wages, increase shareholder value, golden parachutes for failed upper management.

That is all.


SPEEA and the IAM are going strong. Wages are an all time high. Based on my experience with the FAA who certainly doesn’t cut any slack in the programs I’m familiar with, no-one was bullied.

Got any more half-truths and drama.

Will grant you some truth about golden parachutes though for slimeballs like Jim McNerney. He did irreparable damage to Boeing.
 
Chemist
Posts: 561
Joined: Tue Oct 20, 2015 4:46 am

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 5:28 am

My sarcastic side says their main strategy is to "stay reactive". I hope that they're doing more internally than they appear to be doing externally. It's not a good look.
 
User avatar
SQ32
Posts: 56
Joined: Sun Nov 18, 2018 2:18 pm

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 5:43 am

Boeing managers should outsource all software to India, instead of 737-MAX software,

Goldman Sachs and every media claim India software engineering is better than USA.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -engineers

Image
 
User avatar
BoeingVista
Posts: 1998
Joined: Mon Jan 12, 2009 9:54 am

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 5:55 am

BoeingGuy wrote:

SPEEA and the IAM are going strong. Wages are an all time high. Based on my experience with the FAA who certainly doesn’t cut any slack in the programs I’m familiar with, no-one was bullied.

Got any more half-truths and drama.

Will grant you some truth about golden parachutes though for slimeballs like Jim McNerney. He did irreparable damage to Boeing.


Wages may rise through "inflation" rises but that doesnt mean that workers are earning more when adjusted for inflation

FAA not bullied, you clearly have not been following the MAX debacle :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
BV
 
BoeingGuy
Posts: 6314
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2010 6:01 pm

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 6:03 am

BoeingVista wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:

SPEEA and the IAM are going strong. Wages are an all time high. Based on my experience with the FAA who certainly doesn’t cut any slack in the programs I’m familiar with, no-one was bullied.

Got any more half-truths and drama.

Will grant you some truth about golden parachutes though for slimeballs like Jim McNerney. He did irreparable damage to Boeing.


Wages may rise through "inflation" rises but that doesnt mean that workers are earning more when adjusted for inflation

FAA not bullied, you clearly have not been following the MAX debacle :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:


Yeah no. I haven’t been following. :roll: I just sit next to people directly involved in it. You know, I have real facts about it, not what I read in some overly dramatic second rate news article.
 
VV
Posts: 859
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 6:29 am

Haven't they been executing their game plan since around 1998 already?
It all started with the 777-300ER.

The next step is obviously NMA and then there will be a long pause before the next one.

That's on commercial aircraft side.

Once the 737 MAX will return to service, they will try to generate operating profit close to 15% in mid next decade.

They already mentioned this in the past.
 
WIederling
Posts: 8766
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 7:16 am

BoeingVista wrote:
Wring as much value out of existing designs, bully FAA into seeing safety issues their way, de-unionise workforce and depress their wages, increase shareholder value, golden parachutes for failed upper management.

That is all.

You forgot:
Put the juice press to good use on suppliers. ( IMU the only reason why Boeing could have reduced their own cost
in any effective way. ... and "in tone" )
Murphy is an optimist
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 1575
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 8:46 am

Boeings overall game plan is to maximise profit and they are doing very well. Their market predictions have been extremely accurate.

747-8
Boeing predicted the VLA market would fade so they invested the bare minimum with the 747-8. Enough to compete with the A380 and kill it. It is still selling as a freighter and it is profitable.

777X
Boeing didn't do a cleansheet 777 replacement as that market is also shrinking. The 777X is an example of good value for money easily getting 90% of the performance of a cleansheet while costing a fraction of the price. A brilliant medium term solution.

787
The A330 was selling like hot cakes so Boeing required a huge investment in the 787. Boeing spent big bucks on manufacturing efficiency and the profits are now huge. The sales keep flowing in and the 787 will get new engines and eventually replace the 777's in capability.

737MAX
Boeing knew they could get away with a basic upgrade and Airbus would struggle to gain market share. Even with the groundings Airbus can not deliver. The groundings will be a minor speed bump in Boeings history when we look back in 20 years time.

797
Boeing again has predicted the future market growth and has kept Airbus guessing with the ultimate poker face. Airbus will be kept with their pants down and I am certain the 797 will have such a hoghly automated production line that it will be able to win any order against the A321XLR.

NSA
Boeing will take the lessons learnt from the 797 and allow them to built a carbon 737 replacement. Airbus is struggling to get costs down with their carbon A350 and it would be risky for then to build a carbon A321 replacement in 10 years time.
 
mmo
Posts: 1782
Joined: Thu Apr 18, 2013 3:04 pm

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 9:34 am

mjoelnir wrote:
mmo wrote:
Boeing has free cash flow of about $15 billion/year right now. In 2018, they had $13.8. They have a long way to go before they are in a position to worry about any financial problems.


How did you get to 15 billion free cash flow? 15.3 billion USD is the net operating cash flow for 2018. If you than deduct the net investing cash flow 4.6 billion USD, you get a free cash flow of 10.7 billion USD for 2018.

If we look in the Q2 2019 numbers from Boeing we see an net operating cash flow of 4.7 billion in Q1 and minus 0.6 billion in Q2. Again you have to deduct cash flow to investment.
According to the form Q10 investments in the first half year amount to about 1.6 billion USD.
So the free cash flow for the first half year of 2019 amounts to 4.7 - 0.6 - 1.6 = 2.5 billion.

If we now think about that Q1 did still saw full 737 deliveries, whereas Q2 falls mainly into the grounding period, that explains the difference in net operating cash flow.
One can hardly imagine a positive net operating cash flow for Q3 and Q4, even if deliveries should start again in Q4.
Free cash flow should come out worse, as I hardly expect Boeing to be able to stop investments completely for Q3 and Q4.

I can hardly agree with your statement that Boeing has a free cash flow of 15 billion USD right now.

I have the feeling that some posters here confuse net operating cash flow with free cash flow.


Google is your friend. https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelcan ... 230db8102c
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/char ... -cash-flow


So I would say your numbers are way off.
If we weren't all crazy we'd all go insane!
 
Sokes
Posts: 239
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 10:43 am

mmo wrote:


Concerning macrotrends:
If Boeings free cash flow in 2018 was 13.720.000.000 $ and in the quarter ending June 30, 2019 only 1607 $, that's quite a decrease.
Even if the cash flow becomes negative because planes are stored it doesn't matter. What matters is that Boeing can sell the planes with profit after a few months.

Concerning forbes:
Are you aware that the article is from March? Are you aware it was written by some asset management guy?
Suppose I want to sell a huge amount of shares. How am I going to find buyers?

To the article:
"To qualify as a "Doberman," firms must rank highly on two criteria: Return on equity (ROE) and free cash flow yield."
So if somebody had to offer Boeing a 1 billion $ present, Boeing should say no thanks, that would decrease our return on equity.
A company with 1 $ equity on the books and 100 $ profit has much better return on equity than a company which has 1 million $ equity and makes 100.000 $ profit.

In the 4 years from 2014 incl 2018 Boeing bought back 32 billion $ shares. No wonder they didn't have money for a cleansheet NSA.

"The strategy shifted when the 787 program launched in 2004. The jetliner was built with a unique blend of composites and included an innovative electrical system. It took eight years and approximately $32 billion to develop. "
Great. Ask Bombardier how to design a plane at reasonable cost.

"In 2019, Boeing is expected to increase 737 production rates from 5 to 57 per month, which should add close to $3 billion in annual revenue at the full run rate."
I didn't knew the B737 is only responsible for 3% of Boeing's turnover. They only make 5 B737/ month? Who would have thought?

I dislike graphs which don't start from 0 unless the arrow is interrupted to signal so.

"Boeing has spent over $100 billion cumulatively on designing aircraft, which according to GAAP accounting rules, doesn't count as an asset. "
I hope that statement has more truth than the B737 turnover statement.

This article allows for only one conclusion. Somebody tries to offload shares.
Of course you are free to disagree. In which case let's agree that we disagree.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
User avatar
flyingturtle
Posts: 5630
Joined: Mon Oct 31, 2011 1:39 pm

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:20 am

Turn into a software house.

They're about 90% there, give or take.
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
hinckley
Posts: 534
Joined: Mon Jan 09, 2006 10:53 am

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:38 am

I think that the OP's overall premise is valid. I ABSOLUTELY DO NOT think Boeing is going to go out of business, but there are difficult times ahead imo.

Boeing could go up to a year without revenue and cash flow from their cash cow product. The FAA will be sympathetic and will help to get the MAX re-certified, but they have to be very, very careful that they don't appear to be complicit (again). And there's no telling how long EASA will take to re-certify. Re-certification will have strong political overtones on both sides of the Atlantic and I can see it stretching out into Q1 or Q2 of 2020. That's a lot of cash flow to go without.

Additionally, you cannot underestimate B's liability (and the additional hit on cash flow) for the two plane crashes. These were not the result of third-party equipment and they were not acts of god. Boeing's fingerprints are all over the direct cause of these crashes. Plaintiffs will try to paint Boeing management as being directly knowledgeable and complicit in the software defect and coverup. Think Dieselgate with significant DIRECT loss of life. VW's $25 billion cost (so far) of that fiasco may be paled by what the two MAX crashes may eventually cost B in court and regulatory settlements.

You have to assume that all that loss of cash flow will impact B in the marketplace. VW is undergoing a significant re-structuring and re-focus of their product offering. I believe that once the dust settles, B will be forced to do the same thing. I believe the MAX crashes will, like VW and Dieselgate, significantly change B's future commercial airline business. I'm just not smart enough to guess how.
 
texl1649
Posts: 1021
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2007 5:38 am

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:27 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
Revelation wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
One poster has suggested that a revamped 787-8 could both be a very long range passenger and successor freighter to the 767. It would not be that much larger than a 767 which has been amazingly right sized for freighter operations.

The main problem with that theory is the wing span of 787 (or A330) is too big to fit into 767 gates.

The industry will eventually have to transition, but for now 767s are cheap to buy, perform well, and will have support for decades to come due to the tanker program, so it will be hard for anything to knock 767 off its perch.


When Boeing has got some operational experience with the 777-9, I could imagine Boeing doing a folding wing for the 787. It would have to fold 4.1 m or about 13.5 feet on each side. I could even imagine an reduced span version to reduce the size of the folding part.

It would be more difficult for Airbus with the A330neo and its 64 m span.


Folding tips with a new engine on the 787 to be announced toward 2025-2027ish sounds good, if a smaller little brother (geared?) of the GE9X is available by the end of the decade. At that point, Pratt might even be ready/willing to play in that space. Maybe even different sizes of folding tips for different models (I don't think they'd need to change the wing box; less fuel should be needed for equivalent payload range, but given the history of MTOW growth on the A330/777, I could see it happening).

It's more fun to ponder/speculate about than just whining about how terrible Boeing is, anyway.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 21239
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:29 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
BoeingVista wrote:
Wring as much value out of existing designs, bully FAA into seeing safety issues their way, de-unionise workforce and depress their wages, increase shareholder value, golden parachutes for failed upper management.

That is all.


SPEEA and the IAM are going strong. Wages are an all time high. Based on my experience with the FAA who certainly doesn’t cut any slack in the programs I’m familiar with, no-one was bullied.

The media has run with the story that the engineers FAA had assigned to MAX were not very experienced, and FAA has a problem attracting and keeping experienced engineers due to government wage scales and because engineers don't like working for FAA because its managers want to do even more delegating.

Any truth to those reports?
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
Sokes
Posts: 239
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:32 pm

hinckley wrote:
The FAA will be sympathetic and will help to get the MAX re-certified, but they have to be very, very careful that they don't appear to be complicit (again). And there's no telling how long EASA will take to re-certify.

Additionally, you cannot underestimate B's liability (and the additional hit on cash flow) for the two plane crashes. These were not the result of third-party equipment and they were not acts of god. Boeing's fingerprints are all over the direct cause of these crashes. Plaintiffs will try to paint Boeing management as being directly knowledgeable and complicit in the software defect and coverup. Think Dieselgate with significant DIRECT loss of life. VW's $25 billion cost (so far) of that fiasco may be paled by what the two MAX crashes may eventually cost B in court and regulatory settlements.


I assume there are enough narrow-bodies in the US which need replacement that an o.k. from FAA will be enough for some time. But after a few months in service in the US other regulators will fall in line.
The planes didn't crash in the US. I assume the courts will argue they have no jurisdiction.
None of us can prophecy.

I think the really important lesson from the MAX fiasco is not about Boeing, but about politics. It's a structural problem. When will politics take charge of regulation again?
That refers to how companies are to be regulated (manager bonuses) to FAA regulations to reestablishment of Glass-Steagall-Act to labor laws.
I'm not only speaking of America. The problems are there in Europe also.
So many people had to die. At least something good should come out of it.

Once politics does it's job properly Boeing will do it's job properly.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
hinckley
Posts: 534
Joined: Mon Jan 09, 2006 10:53 am

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 1:19 pm

Sokes wrote:
I assume there are enough narrow-bodies in the US which need replacement that an o.k. from FAA will be enough for some time. But after a few months in service in the US other regulators will fall in line.
The planes didn't crash in the US. I assume the courts will argue they have no jurisdiction.
None of us can prophecy.

I think the really important lesson from the MAX fiasco is not about Boeing, but about politics. It's a structural problem. When will politics take charge of regulation again?
That refers to how companies are to be regulated (manager bonuses) to FAA regulations to reestablishment of Glass-Steagall-Act to labor laws.
I'm not only speaking of America. The problems are there in Europe also.
So many people had to die. At least something good should come out of it.

Once politics does it's job properly Boeing will do it's job properly.

I agree with only one exception. It's generally easy to establish jurisdiction in US courts, and with a US manufacturer and at least one American on the ET flight, Boeing will absolutely be facing American juries imo.
 
caljn
Posts: 244
Joined: Sun Oct 14, 2007 9:37 pm

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 1:35 pm

ly204 wrote:
Looking simply at the facts (eg 737 max grounding, 777X EIS delays, NSA delays, MOM delays, 787 manufacturing quality issues), what is Boeing’s game plan? Airbus is capitalizing on Boeing’s struggles at every turn and Boeing can’t seem to gain traction in even one of these threads. My specific questions are: what’s happening to the composition of Boeing’s board? What’s happening to their C-suite? What’s happening to their level of investment in engineering?

Boeing has such a proud legacy and it seems that dramatic steps need to be taken to get Boeing back on solid footing.



These "what is wrong with Boeing" threads appear rather regularly...to the extent where one can be suspicious of their origins.
The MAX issues will be resolved and the 787 is wildly successful. They will be just fine.
 
Sokes
Posts: 239
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 1:36 pm

Which of the following companies have an "intelligent" management: Boeing, GE or Rolls Royce?
What is GE's or RR's game plan?
It's not an American problem, not an individual problem, but a structural problem.
And our examples have not even left aviation.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
JonesNL
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:40 pm

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 1:43 pm

hinckley wrote:
I think that the OP's overall premise is valid. I ABSOLUTELY DO NOT think Boeing is going to go out of business, but there are difficult times ahead imo.

Boeing could go up to a year without revenue and cash flow from their cash cow product. The FAA will be sympathetic and will help to get the MAX re-certified, but they have to be very, very careful that they don't appear to be complicit (again). And there's no telling how long EASA will take to re-certify. Re-certification will have strong political overtones on both sides of the Atlantic and I can see it stretching out into Q1 or Q2 of 2020. That's a lot of cash flow to go without.

Additionally, you cannot underestimate B's liability (and the additional hit on cash flow) for the two plane crashes. These were not the result of third-party equipment and they were not acts of god. Boeing's fingerprints are all over the direct cause of these crashes. Plaintiffs will try to paint Boeing management as being directly knowledgeable and complicit in the software defect and coverup. Think Dieselgate with significant DIRECT loss of life. VW's $25 billion cost (so far) of that fiasco may be paled by what the two MAX crashes may eventually cost B in court and regulatory settlements.

You have to assume that all that loss of cash flow will impact B in the marketplace. VW is undergoing a significant re-structuring and re-focus of their product offering. I believe that once the dust settles, B will be forced to do the same thing. I believe the MAX crashes will, like VW and Dieselgate, significantly change B's future commercial airline business. I'm just not smart enough to guess how.


Indeed, Boeing is to big to fail, from a theoretical financial standpoint they are on the verge of bankruptcy. Let me try to explain with rough numbers; TUI has 18 MAX waiting in parking and lost $200 mil. caused by the grounding of the MAX in 1 quarter. Lets say the grounding takes 3 quarters in the most optimistic scenario as such it will cost TUI $600 mil. in total. If we extrapolate that to the 387 delivered planes (times 20 for ease of calculus) the cost for all airlines worldwide will accumulate to $12 Bil. I am not sure what the compensation scheme will be, but it will cost Boeing an arm and a leg. Then you have the liability of the 2 crashes that could amount to $1 Bil. each according to some experts. Then you have the late deliveries of the birds which will result in some kind of compensation. The updating and getting the planes airborne worthy will be mere pocket change in the bigger scheme of things. Lastly they will have 3 quarters of 1/3 of postponed cash flow due to the lacking deliveries. There is also the unexpected cost of getting extra training for pilots, which will come on the plate of Boeing. There is also the question if the airlines will cancel or even keep ordering the 737 MAX. Which leads to less demand thus less profit for the program.

All in all the best case scenario leads to just 10 Bil. in cost, which is just the profit of 2018. The worst case will be that the plane starts flying just in time for the high season of 2020 and a portion(30%) of the airliners start cancelling their order. In that case $40 Bil is not a far fetched number. I think it will be in the middle somewhere as it is usually the case with such things, $25 Bil. Which roughly translates in 2,5 years of profit. No normal company would able to survive that, but Boeing will. So, from an accounting perspective it will take several years to bite this catastrophic grounding of them and I am also guessing this has an high impact on the moral of employees as well, which is much harder to translate in to numbers, but will effect other programs.

Please do improve my estimates as they are mere correlations based on smaller chunks of info.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos