sargester
Topic Author
Posts: 163
Joined: Fri Apr 27, 2012 10:29 pm

What's with AA's new interest from the northeast to the Caribbean?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 5:55 pm

Any thoughts lads? BOS-GCM/NAS JFK-SJO/MBJ? I know the LGA-AUA and NAS flights have been successful and all but does anyone have any more insight into why AA has been adding all these routes, don't get me wrong its a good thing but I'm just curious is all...

Thoughts and comments below lads, J

https://cayman27.ky/2019/08/gcm-bos-dir ... n-january/

https://twitter.com/Airlineroute/status ... 3114987526
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 5638
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: What's with AA's new interest from the northeast to the Caribbean?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 6:02 pm

Uh, they figured out that business demand declines on Saturdays and they've got spare aircraft, and see demonstrable demand from the Northeast to the Caribbean? This is like Alaska declaring, what, in 2012, that they had figured out demand was slower on Tuesdays and Wednesdays so they were going to schedule fewer flights. There's no magic or brilliance here - just Revenue Management blocking and tackling.

You're familiar with enilria's Sunday changes report, right? That captures new routes, discontinued routes and frequency changes but doesn't even look for upgauging/downgauging. Big carriers make changes all the time.
Last edited by MIflyer12 on Sun Aug 25, 2019 6:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Ishrion
Posts: 1044
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: What's with AA's new interest from the northeast to the Caribbean?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 6:02 pm

"Rich people over the winter".

Other than that, Vasu Raja said AA's strategy at JFK is targeting the unserved markets like GEO.

Also. it seems that AA's Caribbean BOS routes seem to be performing well, BOS-PLS is well sold out on many Saturdays 3-4 months in advance.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 627
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: What's with AA's new interest from the northeast to the Caribbean?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 6:08 pm

First off, I don’t think this is anything new. These flights have been happening for a while. AA ran several seasonal Caribbean routes from both JFK and BOS for years.

Re AA @ JFK, GEO is not an unserved market. There’s an incumbent carrier on the route.
 
Ishrion
Posts: 1044
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: What's with AA's new interest from the northeast to the Caribbean?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 6:33 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
First off, I don’t think this is anything new. These flights have been happening for a while. AA ran several seasonal Caribbean routes from both JFK and BOS for years.

Re AA @ JFK, GEO is not an unserved market. There’s an incumbent carrier on the route.


BOS-GCM/NAS are new additions for AA that haven't been served since 2010 when U.S. Airways last flew them.

This shows that AA will continue to play at BOS, despite cutting numerous destinations(CDG, LHR, etc.) in recent years.

And I suppose I should rephrase "unserved" to underserved.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 627
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: What's with AA's new interest from the northeast to the Caribbean?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 6:47 pm

Ishrion wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
First off, I don’t think this is anything new. These flights have been happening for a while. AA ran several seasonal Caribbean routes from both JFK and BOS for years.

Re AA @ JFK, GEO is not an unserved market. There’s an incumbent carrier on the route.


BOS-GCM/NAS are new additions for AA that haven't been served since 2010 when U.S. Airways last flew them.

This shows that AA will continue to play at BOS, despite cutting numerous destinations(CDG, LHR, etc.) in recent years.

And I suppose I should rephrase "unserved" to underserved.

I’m not saying that the routes aren’t “new”. I’m saying the concept of flying seasonal Caribbean routes from BOS and JFK isn’t.
 
HP69
Posts: 165
Joined: Sat Jun 29, 2019 3:04 pm

Re: What's with AA's new interest from the northeast to the Caribbean?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 7:09 pm

I guess these routes just make money for them.
 
maverick4002
Posts: 105
Joined: Sun Jul 12, 2015 2:14 pm

Re: What's with AA's new interest from the northeast to the Caribbean?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 8:21 pm

Ishrion wrote:
"Rich people over the winter".

Other than that, Vasu Raja said AA's strategy at JFK is targeting the unserved markets like GEO.

Also. it seems that AA's Caribbean BOS routes seem to be performing well, BOS-PLS is well sold out on many Saturdays 3-4 months in advance.



Doesn't GEO have direct flights with BW?
 
caribny
Posts: 132
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: What's with AA's new interest from the northeast to the Caribbean?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 8:39 pm

maverick4002 wrote:


Doesn't GEO have direct flights with BW?


There are some people who think that a route is un(der) served if a US carrier isnt on the route. JFK GEO is a VFR route so BW has as much access to these people as does AA. When/if B6 enters the route we will see how long AA sticks around. AA does seem to do VFR out of JFK to the Caribbean these days.
 
Antarius
Posts: 1652
Joined: Thu Apr 13, 2017 1:27 pm

Re: What's with AA's new interest from the northeast to the Caribbean?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 8:48 pm

caribny wrote:
maverick4002 wrote:


Doesn't GEO have direct flights with BW?


There are some people who think that a route is un(der) served if a US carrier isnt on the route. JFK GEO is a VFR route so BW has as much access to these people as does AA. When/if B6 enters the route we will see how long AA sticks around. AA does seem to do VFR out of JFK to the Caribbean these days.


From a US point of sale, Northeast to GEO is, in a lot of ways unserved. Save for the route via MIA on AA, most of the routes are multi stop with unrealistic travel times.

So yes, not unserved, but a segment is for sure.
2019: SIN HKG NRT DFW IAH HOU CLT LGA JFK SFO SJC EWR SNA EYW MIA BOG LAX ORD DTW OAK PVG BOS DCA IAD ATL LAS BIS CUN PHX OAK SYD CVG PHL MAD ORY CDG SLC SJU BQN MHT YYZ STS BIS DOH BLR MAA KTM
 
Brickell305
Posts: 627
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: What's with AA's new interest from the northeast to the Caribbean?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 10:39 pm

Antarius wrote:
caribny wrote:
maverick4002 wrote:


Doesn't GEO have direct flights with BW?


There are some people who think that a route is un(der) served if a US carrier isnt on the route. JFK GEO is a VFR route so BW has as much access to these people as does AA. When/if B6 enters the route we will see how long AA sticks around. AA does seem to do VFR out of JFK to the Caribbean these days.


From a US point of sale, Northeast to GEO is, in a lot of ways unserved. Save for the route via MIA on AA, most of the routes are multi stop with unrealistic travel times.

So yes, not unserved, but a segment is for sure.

Outside of NYC, there is extremely little market from the Northeast US to GEO. By serving JFK, BW serves the overwhelming bulk of that market.
 
Antarius
Posts: 1652
Joined: Thu Apr 13, 2017 1:27 pm

Re: What's with AA's new interest from the northeast to the Caribbean?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 11:19 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
Antarius wrote:
caribny wrote:

There are some people who think that a route is un(der) served if a US carrier isnt on the route. JFK GEO is a VFR route so BW has as much access to these people as does AA. When/if B6 enters the route we will see how long AA sticks around. AA does seem to do VFR out of JFK to the Caribbean these days.


From a US point of sale, Northeast to GEO is, in a lot of ways unserved. Save for the route via MIA on AA, most of the routes are multi stop with unrealistic travel times.

So yes, not unserved, but a segment is for sure.

Outside of NYC, there is extremely little market from the Northeast US to GEO. By serving JFK, BW serves the overwhelming bulk of that market.


But AA launched the route, which means either they thing they can displace BW, or there is more market to be served.

Outside of NYC, there is likely minimal VFR traffic. But oil and gas production is looking to ramp up, and with that a slew of associated traffic. Maybe this is their goal, plus poaching some of the US POS who are AA/OW loyal.
2019: SIN HKG NRT DFW IAH HOU CLT LGA JFK SFO SJC EWR SNA EYW MIA BOG LAX ORD DTW OAK PVG BOS DCA IAD ATL LAS BIS CUN PHX OAK SYD CVG PHL MAD ORY CDG SLC SJU BQN MHT YYZ STS BIS DOH BLR MAA KTM
 
Brickell305
Posts: 627
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: What's with AA's new interest from the northeast to the Caribbean?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 2:37 am

Antarius wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
Antarius wrote:

From a US point of sale, Northeast to GEO is, in a lot of ways unserved. Save for the route via MIA on AA, most of the routes are multi stop with unrealistic travel times.

So yes, not unserved, but a segment is for sure.

Outside of NYC, there is extremely little market from the Northeast US to GEO. By serving JFK, BW serves the overwhelming bulk of that market.


But AA launched the route, which means either they thing they can displace BW, or there is more market to be served.

Outside of NYC, there is likely minimal VFR traffic. But oil and gas production is looking to ramp up, and with that a slew of associated traffic. Maybe this is their goal, plus poaching some of the US POS who are AA/OW loyal.

I think they believe they can poach BW’s traffic on JFK. The new oil related travel can be covered through MIA as a lot of that originates in Houston but there’s still not enough traffic to warrant IAH-GEO nonstop on UA.
 
caribny
Posts: 132
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: What's with AA's new interest from the northeast to the Caribbean?

Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:15 pm

Antarius wrote:

From a US point of sale, Northeast to GEO is, in a lot of ways unserved. Save for the route via MIA on AA, most of the routes are multi stop with unrealistic travel times.

So yes, not unserved, but a segment is for sure.


To GEO the only routes that make sense are JFK and MIA/FLL. BW is on both and AA and PY are also out of MIA, so I don't know how GEO is unserved. Yes maybe BW can do with some competition on the JFK but to suggest that the route is unserved is not accurate. There is insufficient consistent demand and there will never be demand for BOS GEO. No carrier provides service even to the leisure destinations like UVF out of the DC area so that isn't viable either

BW runs 10x NONSTOP from JFK. I don't know what multi stop routes that GEO needs nonstop service to in the northeast. Its not as if AA is a fabulous product, because it isn't. I use it all the time. Its merely adequate and can be quite cruel when problems develop as I bet those who are trying to get out of BGI today have discovered.
 
caribny
Posts: 132
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: What's with AA's new interest from the northeast to the Caribbean?

Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:39 pm

Antarius wrote:
[

But AA launched the route, which means either they thing they can displace BW, or there is more market to be served.

Outside of NYC, there is likely minimal VFR traffic. But oil and gas production is looking to ramp up, and with that a slew of associated traffic. Maybe this is their goal, plus poaching some of the US POS who are AA/OW loyal.


The JFK GEO route is a 2 airline one. Whenever there is only one carrier fares fly thru the roof so either AA or B6 (not sure both) are needed, in addition to BW. Not because the route is "unserved". But because VFR travel is very sticky and while it is price sensitive it isn't price elastic in the way that leisure travel is. So if a carrier wishes to utilize a high fare strategy, and the market tolerates it by paying the fares (definitely true for the JFK GEO), they can get away with it. B6 uses comes in at a lower price point, at least until they become established on a route.

I doubt that many Guyanese are AA loyal, aside from those traveling to/from MIA, and especially those transferring thru that airport. AA's power in the Caribbean is due to its very strong MIA fortress hub. SoFL rivals the NY area in the O&D VFR travel generated and then AA offers connectivity to points with decent VFR, but insufficient to justify nonstop service. Points like ATL and the DC area. AA lacks these advantages in the NY market. The Caribbean VFR are much wedded to B6 as they not only use them on trips to the Caribbean, but also to FL. Caribbean VFR travel is very strong between NY/NJ and FL.

People hoped that AA entering the GEO space would have reduced airfares, but this has not happened. So I don't see that AA is meeting an unmet need.

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