HP69
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 12:13 am

Ishrion wrote:
HP69 wrote:
IPFreely wrote:

You're right. But this is the same OP who has brought us these other gems:







All three of those statements are factual. I do have insider info stating the above. Additionally, the two statements about Delta in NYC are supported by facts.


https://www.flightconnections.com/route ... irlines-ua
United: ~ 27 Destinations in Europe (Including PMO/NCE)
https://www.flightconnections.com/route-map-delta-dl
Delta: ~ 26 Destinations in Europe, 27 Cities including the upcoming LGW.

In my opinion, they both have very solid and rounded-out networks across Europe. However, you'd need to factor in the AF/KL/VS and LH Group Joint Ventures.

If DL could easily make nonstops from JFK to the Asian cities listed, why haven't they? DL can't even make SEA-HKG work, and was immediately replaced by CX.

The "insider info"... is this serious?...


The don’t have the fleet to operate the JFK-Asia flights listed above. Only their A359s and 77L would be able to make it
 
Ishrion
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 12:17 am

HP69 wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
HP69 wrote:

All three of those statements are factual. I do have insider info stating the above. Additionally, the two statements about Delta in NYC are supported by facts.


https://www.flightconnections.com/route ... irlines-ua
United: ~ 27 Destinations in Europe (Including PMO/NCE)
https://www.flightconnections.com/route-map-delta-dl
Delta: ~ 26 Destinations in Europe, 27 Cities including the upcoming LGW.

In my opinion, they both have very solid and rounded-out networks across Europe. However, you'd need to factor in the AF/KL/VS and LH Group Joint Ventures.

If DL could easily make nonstops from JFK to the Asian cities listed, why haven't they? DL can't even make SEA-HKG work, and was immediately replaced by CX.

The "insider info"... is this serious?...


The don’t have the fleet to operate the JFK-Asia flights listed above. Only their A359s and 77L would be able to make it


Therefore, and factually, that means they cannot "easily" make them work.

And... Delta has 12 more A359s on order...
 
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BA744PHX
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 12:27 am

HP69 wrote:
PHX is AA’s least profitable hub not located in a key intl market (MIA, NYC, and LAX). Also, it is heavily overlapping with DFW and LAX. So taking these factors into consideration, what is the future of AA at PHX?


AA has/will add 12 routes from PHX this year, including 2 international LHR, CUU, MSN, RDU, RAP, MSY, CID, ICT, FAR, CVG, FLL, COS.... so take that as you will.....
UA Gold 2019, DL Silver 2019
Upcoming flights
UA EWR-PHX/LHR/CLT/NRT/ORD/YYZ
NH NRT-BKK-NRT
TG BKK-HKT-BKK
 
HP69
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 12:28 am

BA744PHX wrote:
HP69 wrote:
PHX is AA’s least profitable hub not located in a key intl market (MIA, NYC, and LAX). Also, it is heavily overlapping with DFW and LAX. So taking these factors into consideration, what is the future of AA at PHX?


AA has/will add 12 routes from PHX this year, including 2 international LHR, CUU, MSN, RDU, RAP, MSY, CID, ICT, FAR, CVG, FLL, COS.... so take that as you will.....


But they still don’t fly PHX-BNA.
 
Ishrion
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 12:43 am

HP69 wrote:
BA744PHX wrote:
HP69 wrote:
PHX is AA’s least profitable hub not located in a key intl market (MIA, NYC, and LAX). Also, it is heavily overlapping with DFW and LAX. So taking these factors into consideration, what is the future of AA at PHX?


AA has/will add 12 routes from PHX this year, including 2 international LHR, CUU, MSN, RDU, RAP, MSY, CID, ICT, FAR, CVG, FLL, COS.... so take that as you will.....


But they still don’t fly PHX-BNA.


And I sincerely wouldn't be surprised if they add it soon/next. Don't forget AA's dealing with the MAX groundings, limiting their growth. I'm surprised they were able to expand into these additional cities.
 
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BA744PHX
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 12:44 am

HP69 wrote:
BA744PHX wrote:
HP69 wrote:
PHX is AA’s least profitable hub not located in a key intl market (MIA, NYC, and LAX). Also, it is heavily overlapping with DFW and LAX. So taking these factors into consideration, what is the future of AA at PHX?


AA has/will add 12 routes from PHX this year, including 2 international LHR, CUU, MSN, RDU, RAP, MSY, CID, ICT, FAR, CVG, FLL, COS.... so take that as you will.....


But they still don’t fly PHX-BNA.


So because they dont fly PHX-BNA, they shouldn't be a hub???
UA Gold 2019, DL Silver 2019
Upcoming flights
UA EWR-PHX/LHR/CLT/NRT/ORD/YYZ
NH NRT-BKK-NRT
TG BKK-HKT-BKK
 
bfitzflyer
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 12:53 am

raptorbandito wrote:
I suspect people who keep bringing this up have no idea that the Phoenix metro area has almost as many people as the Boston metro and is the same size as the San Francisco metro area. Its always compared to cities like Cleveland and Memphis which are literally half the size of Phoenix

SF is #5 and BOS is #6. PHX is just over half the size of SF metro area
 
Raventech
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 12:59 am

FSDan wrote:
bob75013 wrote:
DLASFlyer wrote:
Phoenix is the fastest growing large metro in the nation.



DFW is gaining 150k a year. Does Phoenix beat that?


I'm guessing Phoenix counts as the fastest growing large metro area by percentage growth. The Metroplex may be adding more people per year, but I believe growth rates are often measured as a percentage of the total population.


I think part of where this comes from is that for several years Maricopa county has been the county with the largest growth in the nation. Typically the couple years they weren't, they were a close second to Houston county in TX. Where this likely gets conflated is Maricopa county covers somewhere around 80-95% of the PHX metro so when people hear Maricopa county they think PHX Metro. Contextual fun fact, counties in AZ are HUGE. Maricopa county is larger or equal to 5 states by land area, so comparing county growth isn't the best metric. 2nd fun fact, Maricopa isn't even the largest county in AZ (by land area), that's Coconino and it is larger than Maryland (again by area).

Also interesting note I came across researching this trivia is per the US Census, DFW is the largest growing metro (130K growth) with PHX being second (96K) to them in the country. Per the press release, it cites the DFWs growth is mainly from natural growth versus PHX has been from domestic migration (personal conjecture: a good chunk of it is Californians that deciding to GTFO, which is also why there is a lot of tech companies now setting up shop in Goodyear, Chandler, and Mesa)

Sources:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U ... es_by_area
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-r ... metro.html
 
Sydscott
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:34 am

Raventech wrote:
FSDan wrote:
bob75013 wrote:


DFW is gaining 150k a year. Does Phoenix beat that?


I'm guessing Phoenix counts as the fastest growing large metro area by percentage growth. The Metroplex may be adding more people per year, but I believe growth rates are often measured as a percentage of the total population.


I think part of where this comes from is that for several years Maricopa county has been the county with the largest growth in the nation. Typically the couple years they weren't, they were a close second to Houston county in TX. Where this likely gets conflated is Maricopa county covers somewhere around 80-95% of the PHX metro so when people hear Maricopa county they think PHX Metro. Contextual fun fact, counties in AZ are HUGE. Maricopa county is larger or equal to 5 states by land area, so comparing county growth isn't the best metric. 2nd fun fact, Maricopa isn't even the largest county in AZ (by land area), that's Coconino and it is larger than Maryland (again by area).

Also interesting note I came across researching this trivia is per the US Census, DFW is the largest growing metro (130K growth) with PHX being second (96K) to them in the country. Per the press release, it cites the DFWs growth is mainly from natural growth versus PHX has been from domestic migration (personal conjecture: a good chunk of it is Californians that deciding to GTFO, which is also why there is a lot of tech companies now setting up shop in Goodyear, Chandler, and Mesa)

Sources:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U ... es_by_area
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-r ... metro.html


And there is AA with growing hubs in both cities. Go figure!
 
Raventech
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:38 am

bfitzflyer wrote:
raptorbandito wrote:
I suspect people who keep bringing this up have no idea that the Phoenix metro area has almost as many people as the Boston metro and is the same size as the San Francisco metro area. Its always compared to cities like Cleveland and Memphis which are literally half the size of Phoenix

SF is #5 and BOS is #6. PHX is just over half the size of SF metro area [citation needed]


Citation please. Per the US Government, PHX Metro is larger at 4,857,962 versus SFO metro at 4,729,484. To be fair they put SJC in its own metro which I think is realistically part of the SFO area but even then its only at 6,728,591. Hardly doubles the population.

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tab ... l?src=bkmk
 
grbauc
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:42 am

HP69 wrote:
PHX is AA’s least profitable hub not located in a key intl market (MIA, NYC, and LAX). Also, it is heavily overlapping with DFW and LAX. So taking these factors into consideration, what is the future of AA at PHX?



to the OP do you live out west? Do you understand the roll of LAX vs PHX and in relation to California and what use DFW is?

LAX NO room and not a Good connection hub. DFW is to far east for most of the westcoast. PHX good and growing economy and AA only tru Westcoast connection hub. DFW is a midwest Mega connection hub.
Leave PHX alone its growing at a healthy clip. Any vacating by AA at PHX will be snapped up by DL and or WN. DL aready has SLC, SEA, LAX and p2p options in the westcoast but Id bet my saving that PHX would be filled by DL before you could spell Phoenix.
 
grbauc
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:48 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
UpNAWAy wrote:
Vctony wrote:
PHX also isn’t the least profitable hub. I forgot which thread it was but I believe numbers were posted showing MIA and LAX as less profitable (potentially JFK as well).


I believe PHX is actually 3rd on a margin basis after DFW and CLT. The single most profitable flight (again on a margin basis) in the entire system is from PHX. Not to mention with PHX growth showing no signs of slowing. Also structurally PHX airport has more potential for growth than almost any other big city airport. In 20 years I bet PHX will surpass MIA and ORD in flights and passengers.


Would you care to cite the source of insight on AA hub margins? On the source of individual flight margins?

I'll take the under on PHX surpassing ORD in passengers counts in 20 years, thanks.



I could See PHX for AA topping ORD in 20years.
 
Gulfstream500
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:53 am

PhilMcCrackin wrote:
jmc1975 wrote:
What will Northwest be replacing their DC9s with?


757s when Boeing restarts the line.



The 727MAX
Thinking of a good signature is hard...
 
Antarius
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 2:00 am

HP69 wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
HP69 wrote:

All three of those statements are factual. I do have insider info stating the above. Additionally, the two statements about Delta in NYC are supported by facts.


You couldn’t possibly have insider information that DL would start those pacific routes.


I meant insider info on the A390.


No offense, but you're either full of it or extremely foolish. Money on the former.

Regardless, Airbus isn't going to chase fools gold after failing spectacularly on the a380 and watching the recent lukewarm response to the 777X.
2019: SIN HKG NRT DFW IAH HOU CLT LGA JFK SFO SJC EWR SNA EYW MIA BOG LAX ORD DTW OAK PVG BOS DCA IAD ATL LAS BIS CUN PHX OAK SYD CVG PHL MAD ORY CDG SLC SJU BQN MHT YYZ STS BIS DOH BLR KTM MFM MEX MSY BWI DEN
 
grbauc
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 2:02 am

bfitzflyer wrote:
raptorbandito wrote:
I suspect people who keep bringing this up have no idea that the Phoenix metro area has almost as many people as the Boston metro and is the same size as the San Francisco metro area. Its always compared to cities like Cleveland and Memphis which are literally half the size of Phoenix

SF is #5 and BOS is #6. PHX is just over half the size of SF metro area



And I don't think it will ever be close to SFO. PHX like many Western US cities has too much room to grow and are spread out unlike NewYork or San fran...
 
Antarius
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 2:06 am

MO11 wrote:
HP69 wrote:
PHX is AA’s least profitable hub not located in a key intl market (MIA, NYC, and LAX). Also, it is heavily overlapping with DFW and LAX. So taking these factors into consideration, what is the future of AA at PHX?


This quote came from a FlightGlobal article late last year, in response to a blogger who predicted dehubbing:

Vasu Raja, vice-president of network and schedule planning at American, told Snyder earlier October that Phoenix was no longer the east-west connecting hub for the airline as it was at US Airways, but a "mountains to the world" hub.


It isn't the E-W hub it was for US (as US had nothing else), but it is still a sizeable E-W hub. In a lot of ways, it plays a similar role to CLT. Both act as large connection gateways, allowing DFW and LAX to be used more profitably for O&D, while also being profitable themselves. If anything, I expect PHX to grow.
2019: SIN HKG NRT DFW IAH HOU CLT LGA JFK SFO SJC EWR SNA EYW MIA BOG LAX ORD DTW OAK PVG BOS DCA IAD ATL LAS BIS CUN PHX OAK SYD CVG PHL MAD ORY CDG SLC SJU BQN MHT YYZ STS BIS DOH BLR KTM MFM MEX MSY BWI DEN
 
kavok
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 2:09 am

grbauc wrote:
HP69 wrote:
PHX is AA’s least profitable hub not located in a key intl market (MIA, NYC, and LAX). Also, it is heavily overlapping with DFW and LAX. So taking these factors into consideration, what is the future of AA at PHX?



to the OP do you live out west? Do you understand the roll of LAX vs PHX and in relation to California and what use DFW is?

LAX NO room and not a Good connection hub. DFW is to far east for most of the westcoast. PHX good and growing economy and AA only tru Westcoast connection hub. DFW is a midwest Mega connection hub.
Leave PHX alone its growing at a healthy clip. Any vacating by AA at PHX will be snapped up by DL and or WN. DL aready has SLC, SEA, LAX and p2p options in the westcoast but Id bet my saving that PHX would be filled by DL before you could spell Phoenix.


Completely agree about DL moving in, if AA ever de-hubed PHX. PHX would fit in very well with DL's west coast plan, albeit at the expense of SLC. DL in PHX could also go a long way toward filling in the southwest hole in DL's network. AA off course knows this, and obviously doesn't want to give away any more market share to DL.

To be honest, from a geographic standpoint only, I have always thought it made more sense for DL and AA to basically swap their SLC and PHX hubs. It would never happen of course, given how much each airline is invested in their respective market's infrastructure, plue the fact that PHX is a much larger market than SLC (hence not a fair trade), and also mainly due to the loyalty developed over the years by the local business community to each respective frequent flyer program. But again, that wouldn't stop DL from moving into PHX should AA ever willingly leave on their own.

Look what happened in BOS... when AA moved out, DL moved in. Same would go for PHX
 
bfitzflyer
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 2:14 am

Raventech wrote:
bfitzflyer wrote:
raptorbandito wrote:
I suspect people who keep bringing this up have no idea that the Phoenix metro area has almost as many people as the Boston metro and is the same size as the San Francisco metro area. Its always compared to cities like Cleveland and Memphis which are literally half the size of Phoenix

SF is #5 and BOS is #6. PHX is just over half the size of SF metro area [citation needed]


Citation please. Per the US Government, PHX Metro is larger at 4,857,962 versus SFO metro at 4,729,484. To be fair they put SJC in its own metro which I think is realistically part of the SFO area but even then its only at 6,728,591. Hardly doubles the population.

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tab ... l?src=bkmk


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistic ... ted_States)

9.6 million vs. 4.9 million
 
AZLiam
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 2:28 am

Antarius wrote:
MO11 wrote:
HP69 wrote:
PHX is AA’s least profitable hub not located in a key intl market (MIA, NYC, and LAX). Also, it is heavily overlapping with DFW and LAX. So taking these factors into consideration, what is the future of AA at PHX?


This quote came from a FlightGlobal article late last year, in response to a blogger who predicted dehubbing:

Vasu Raja, vice-president of network and schedule planning at American, told Snyder earlier October that Phoenix was no longer the east-west connecting hub for the airline as it was at US Airways, but a "mountains to the world" hub.


It isn't the E-W hub it was for US (as US had nothing else), but it is still a sizeable E-W hub. In a lot of ways, it plays a similar role to CLT. Both act as large connection gateways, allowing DFW and LAX to be used more profitably for O&D, while also being profitable themselves. If anything, I expect PHX to grow.


It certainly will have the room to grow. Sky Harbor buildout plans: https://www.phoenix.gov/cityclerksite/City%20Council%20Meeting%20Files/6-11-19%20Policy%20Agenda.pdf - diagram pg. 7
 
raptorbandito
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:43 am

bfitzflyer wrote:
Raventech wrote:
bfitzflyer wrote:
SF is #5 and BOS is #6. PHX is just over half the size of SF metro area [citation needed]


Citation please. Per the US Government, PHX Metro is larger at 4,857,962 versus SFO metro at 4,729,484. To be fair they put SJC in its own metro which I think is realistically part of the SFO area but even then its only at 6,728,591. Hardly doubles the population.

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tab ... l?src=bkmk


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistic ... ted_States)

9.6 million vs. 4.9 million

I guess I am sorry I used census data, I just pulled up MSA data. The point is that PHX is a top 15 metro area that is bigger than DEN, SEA, MSP, and SLC airports that no one questions having a hub at.
 
grbauc
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:51 am

kavok wrote:
grbauc wrote:
HP69 wrote:
PHX is AA’s least profitable hub not located in a key intl market (MIA, NYC, and LAX). Also, it is heavily overlapping with DFW and LAX. So taking these factors into consideration, what is the future of AA at PHX?



to the OP do you live out west? Do you understand the roll of LAX vs PHX and in relation to California and what use DFW is?

LAX NO room and not a Good connection hub. DFW is to far east for most of the westcoast. PHX good and growing economy and AA only tru Westcoast connection hub. DFW is a midwest Mega connection hub.
Leave PHX alone its growing at a healthy clip. Any vacating by AA at PHX will be snapped up by DL and or WN. DL aready has SLC, SEA, LAX and p2p options in the westcoast but Id bet my saving that PHX would be filled by DL before you could spell Phoenix.


Completely agree about DL moving in, if AA ever de-hubed PHX. PHX would fit in very well with DL's west coast plan, albeit at the expense of SLC. DL in PHX could also go a long way toward filling in the southwest hole in DL's network. AA off course knows this, and obviously doesn't want to give away any more market share to DL.

To be honest, from a geographic standpoint only, I have always thought it made more sense for DL and AA to basically swap their SLC and PHX hubs. It would never happen of course, given how much each airline is invested in their respective market's infrastructure, plue the fact that PHX is a much larger market than SLC (hence not a fair trade), and also mainly due to the loyalty developed over the years by the local business community to each respective frequent flyer program. But again, that wouldn't stop DL from moving into PHX should AA ever willingly leave on their own.

Look what happened in BOS... when AA moved out, DL moved in. Same would go for PHX

BOS > Yep even though DL had A large JFK and LGA operation.. AA more then UA needs to take some lessons from DL imop.
 
MrPeanut
Posts: 31
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:36 pm

Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 4:22 am

AZLiam wrote:
Antarius wrote:
MO11 wrote:

This quote came from a FlightGlobal article late last year, in response to a blogger who predicted dehubbing:

Vasu Raja, vice-president of network and schedule planning at American, told Snyder earlier October that Phoenix was no longer the east-west connecting hub for the airline as it was at US Airways, but a "mountains to the world" hub.


It isn't the E-W hub it was for US (as US had nothing else), but it is still a sizeable E-W hub. In a lot of ways, it plays a similar role to CLT. Both act as large connection gateways, allowing DFW and LAX to be used more profitably for O&D, while also being profitable themselves. If anything, I expect PHX to grow.


It certainly will have the room to grow. Sky Harbor buildout plans: https://www.phoenix.gov/cityclerksite/City%20Council%20Meeting%20Files/6-11-19%20Policy%20Agenda.pdf - diagram pg. 7


Don't hold your breath on that buildout plan. The combination of no additional runways and City of Tempe overflight rules pretty much means that plan will be almost impossible to achieve.
 
Raventech
Posts: 203
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 4:34 am

bfitzflyer wrote:
Raventech wrote:
bfitzflyer wrote:
SF is #5 and BOS is #6. PHX is just over half the size of SF metro area [citation needed]


Citation please. Per the US Government, PHX Metro is larger at 4,857,962 versus SFO metro at 4,729,484. To be fair they put SJC in its own metro which I think is realistically part of the SFO area but even then its only at 6,728,591. Hardly doubles the population.

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tab ... l?src=bkmk


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistic ... ted_States)

9.6 million vs. 4.9 million


Cool, thanks for the source, point is valid in that context.

My criticism of this method would be that the lines in the context of sense feel arbitrary for this discussion. Not saying there wasn't valid reasons they lumped them together for their purpose but its weird that Payson is considered part of the PHX area and not Prescott though they are equal drive from PHX. Its like if I claimed Phoenix is 5 times bigger than SFO because Maricopa county is 5 times bigger than San Fransisco county. It's true in this context but doesn't paint the whole picture.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Francisco
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maricopa_County,_Arizona

Because I am apparently that bored I took the statistical area population and the airports that reside within it and got a number that controls for aircraft gauge and population. The number is seats filled per person annually. (basically how many seats per year for each resident).

DEN: 8.7 seats per resident per year
ATL: 7.7
LAX: 5.8
SLC: 4.7
SFO: 4.3
PHX: 2.4
SMF: 2.3

So really PHX is right sized for its population since it has the same amount of service as an airport that has no hub (only a WN focus city). Since it is a hub for both AA and WN there is an argument that they are actually under-served but again this is just another statistic so take it with a grain of salt. Actually it does illustrate though that if AA did pull out that there will be a vacuum left to be filled by another airline.

Sources
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_t ... ted_States
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistic ... ted_States)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoenix%E ... ay_Airport
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_Beach_Airport
 
PhilMcCrackin
Posts: 139
Joined: Mon Jun 24, 2019 11:54 pm

Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 4:48 am

Payson certainly isn't in the PHX metro area by any stretch of the imagination. Neither is Prescott.
 
Raventech
Posts: 203
Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2012 10:25 pm

Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 4:54 am

PhilMcCrackin wrote:
Payson certainly isn't in the PHX metro area by any stretch of the imagination. Neither is Prescott.


Hence the questioning how much of the 9.7 mil actually is outside of SFO metro in reality
 
WkndWanderer
Posts: 270
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:29 am

raptorbandito wrote:
bfitzflyer wrote:
Raventech wrote:

Citation please. Per the US Government, PHX Metro is larger at 4,857,962 versus SFO metro at 4,729,484. To be fair they put SJC in its own metro which I think is realistically part of the SFO area but even then its only at 6,728,591. Hardly doubles the population.

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tab ... l?src=bkmk


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistic ... ted_States)

9.6 million vs. 4.9 million

I guess I am sorry I used census data, I just pulled up MSA data. The point is that PHX is a top 15 metro area that is bigger than DEN, SEA, MSP, and SLC airports that no one questions having a hub at.


One is using actual Metropolitan areas, and the other is using combined areas where they lump adjacent MSA’s together for statistical purposes because they have some overlapping commuting patterns or ties. The SF CSA stretches to the Sacramento line, and lumps in Stockton, Modesto, and Santa Rosa, which is why there is such a big difference between that number and the actual SF MSA. There are at least 7 commercial airports in it or directly adjacent to it.
 
TYWoolman
Posts: 105
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 12:31 pm

Let's face it, we all love rehashing and talking. Posts could just be ignored, but rather there is a lot of chiming in about a topic already talked about. Gotta love us airline fans and human nature to put 2 cents in at any cost!
 
EvanWSFO
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 12:51 pm

HP69 wrote:
BA744PHX wrote:
HP69 wrote:
PHX is AA’s least profitable hub not located in a key intl market (MIA, NYC, and LAX). Also, it is heavily overlapping with DFW and LAX. So taking these factors into consideration, what is the future of AA at PHX?


AA has/will add 12 routes from PHX this year, including 2 international LHR, CUU, MSN, RDU, RAP, MSY, CID, ICT, FAR, CVG, FLL, COS.... so take that as you will.....


But they still don’t fly PHX-BNA.


As a resident of Nashville, it would be nice if AA added a nonstop to PHX, However, it's not a massive O&D market and AA has eight flights a day to DFW for passengers to make connections on. At most they might add a single or maybe two flights n/s, so still less cnx appeal than DFW.
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BreezyIAH
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:00 pm

No one realizes PHX metro is a million plus
 
Vctony
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:21 pm

BreezyIAH wrote:
No one realizes PHX metro is a million plus


PHX metro is 4 million plus.
 
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chunhimlai
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:31 pm

Any chance for Phoenix to close PHX and expand AZA for the primary airport
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:41 pm

BreezyIAH wrote:
No one realizes PHX metro is a million plus


That’s pretty ridiculous. Only the really uneducated would think it’s less than that.
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Raventech
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 2:00 pm

chunhimlai wrote:
Any chance for Phoenix to close PHX and expand AZA for the primary airport


Nope
 
PhilMcCrackin
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:29 pm

chunhimlai wrote:
Any chance for Phoenix to close PHX and expand AZA for the primary airport


Nope. Sky Harbor is continually being improved with a new Terminal 3 and running the sky train out to the rental car facility. It's a fantastic facility.

AZA is located in the far southeastern corner of the region, which isn't convenient for much of the population.
 
BreezyIAH
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:44 pm

My bad LAXdude1023
 
travaz
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 4:16 pm

PHX rates as one of the most profitable routes out of DFW:
The highest-grossing routes out of DFW tend to have lots of business travelers, multiple flights a day and cover longer distances.
Origin Destination Total revenue
DFW Los Angeles $361,870,999
DFW Chicago O'Hare $358,378,010
DFW Sydney, Australia $304,897,303
DFW Atlanta $304,805,844
DFW London Heathrow $300,933,065
DFW New York LaGuardia $283,352,934
DFW San Francisco $261,422,688
DFW Charlotte $258,874,086
DFW Phoenix $249,706,937
DFW Philadelphia $247,711,298

http://www.dallasnews.com/business/airl ... xas-top-10
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 4:48 pm

RemoFlyer wrote:
I was off by a few here and there:

CLT 14.3%
DCA 13.6%
DFW 12.7%
ORD 11.4%
PHL 11.4%
PHX 9.6%
MIA 6.7%
JFK 3.1%
LGA -0.8%
LAX -0.9%

Reference is here https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/comm ... ry-anymore

That puts everything into perspective. Profit above 12% means grow wisely (don't saturate, but defend the market).
Profit 8% to 12%, stabilize the market by redirecting resources.
MIA, JFK, LGA, and LAX need Vice President attention to fix. For MIA, JFK, and LAX it is working alliances, connections, and route gauge/frequency. I'm not sure what to do for LGA.

Looks like ORD and PHL could grow nicely after gauge adjustment.

Lightsaber
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HP69
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:07 pm

Wow I didn’t expect this topic to get almost 100 replies!
 
MO11
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:10 pm

It always turns into a discussion/disagreement over how big the Phoenix metro area is.
 
HP69
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:12 pm

MO11 wrote:
It always turns into a discussion/disagreement over how big the Phoenix metro area is.


It certainly seems that way.
 
FTMCPIUS
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:28 pm

DLASFlyer wrote:
Phoenix is the fastest growing large metro in the nation.

AA knows the Phoenix area is pretty much maxed out for much further growth due to limited Colorado River supply.
 
HoyaMike
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:46 pm

FTMCPIUS wrote:
DLASFlyer wrote:
Phoenix is the fastest growing large metro in the nation.

AA knows the Phoenix area is pretty much maxed out for much further growth due to limited Colorado River supply.


This is a very uneducated take, as Phoenix gets very little of its water from the Colorado River, the bulk of Central Arizona Project (Colo River water) goes to Tucson.

Phoenix gets the bulk of its water from the Salt River Project, a series of 7 large lakes on the Salt and Verde Rivers, all of which are at 100% capacity.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salt_River_Project

And seeing as Doug Parker is from Phoenix, I’m pretty sure he is well aware there will be zero lack of water to slow growth of Phoenix
 
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BN727227Ultra
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:51 pm

I'm surprised that One World can send a 744 and 772 to LHR daily. What's the PHX O&D %age? How much comes from greater LA?
 
Miamiairport
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:59 pm

BN727227Ultra wrote:
I'm surprised that One World can send a 744 and 772 to LHR daily. What's the PHX O&D %age? How much comes from greater LA?


Some of that traffic is connecting at LHR to other destinations, so it's not all O&D. Given the lack of European flights from PHX it's not like there's tons of direct flights to European destinations.
 
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SierraPacific
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:08 pm

FTMCPIUS wrote:
DLASFlyer wrote:
Phoenix is the fastest growing large metro in the nation.

AA knows the Phoenix area is pretty much maxed out for much further growth due to limited Colorado River supply.


Tell that to Las Vegas, The Coachella Valley, and Los Angeles. These areas all feed off of the same water supply as Phoenix and have no plans to stop growing.

Arizona leads the way when it comes to water conservation with an entire sustainability college at Arizona State. Arizona actually gives water away to California and Nevada.

It is frustrating that people believe that Arizona is the problem when it comes to water when the Phoenix metro is probably one of the most advanced cities for water conservation out there

Back to the original topic, AA will match demand and with the huge population boom occurring in the valley it looks like a bright future for air service
 
AEROFAN
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:19 pm

cathay747 wrote:
With some fairness to the OP, they only joined a month ago so they haven't been around to see all the threads, or posts in threads, about PHX being dehubbed, etc.

This topic has been beaten to death. The PHX hub isn't going anywhere. As noted above, AA just started a daily year-round nonstop to/from LHR a few months ago as well as adding several other new routes (a few haven't started quite yet). PHX fills a specific niche in the AA network. And there's no more overlap with LAX/DFW than they have with their other closely-located hubs of NYC/PHL/DCA/CLT. Additionally, LAX couldn't possible absorb what PHX does as AA simply doesn't have the capacity available at LAX.

That about sums it up.


And here you are contributing to its beating anew. Wouldn't it be more efficient and less tiresome to just post the link to one of the past thrashings?
 
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BN727227Ultra
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:36 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
BN727227Ultra wrote:
I'm surprised that One World can send a 744 and 772 to LHR daily. What's the PHX O&D %age? How much comes from greater LA?


Some of that traffic is connecting at LHR to other destinations, so it's not all O&D. Given the lack of European flights from PHX it's not like there's tons of direct flights to European destinations.


Good point, thanks. Wonder how long it'll take for LH and AF/KL to arrive.
 
PhilMcCrackin
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:48 pm

BN727227Ultra wrote:
Miamiairport wrote:
BN727227Ultra wrote:
I'm surprised that One World can send a 744 and 772 to LHR daily. What's the PHX O&D %age? How much comes from greater LA?


Some of that traffic is connecting at LHR to other destinations, so it's not all O&D. Given the lack of European flights from PHX it's not like there's tons of direct flights to European destinations.


Good point, thanks. Wonder how long it'll take for LH and AF/KL to arrive.


LH is already here having announced a Eurowings seasonal flight to FRA for next summer. Condor has already been operating a seasonal PHX-FRA less than daily for a couple of years now. I'm skeptical there's room for both, but we'll see what happens next summer.
 
alasizon
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:56 pm

paulsaz wrote:
PHX-HMO (Hermosillo, Sonora) is supposedly the highest margin route--I think that is for PHX only, not system wide.


Nope, that is system wide by margin. At the time of that announcement, PHX held 3 of the top five (GDL was #5 and I don't recall what was #3).

One thing that people need to take a look at with PHX is that it is also on the plus side ratio of Mainline to Regional flying, hubs that struggled in the past were predominately regional heavy, not mainline heavy. For AA only JFK & MIA have higher ratios which is driven primarily by INTL widebody flying and the fact they aren't domestic connectors.
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Vctony
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Re: Future of AA hub at PHX

Wed Aug 28, 2019 3:08 am

alasizon wrote:
paulsaz wrote:
PHX-HMO (Hermosillo, Sonora) is supposedly the highest margin route--I think that is for PHX only, not system wide.


Nope, that is system wide by margin. At the time of that announcement, PHX held 3 of the top five (GDL was #5 and I don't recall what was #3).

One thing that people need to take a look at with PHX is that it is also on the plus side ratio of Mainline to Regional flying, hubs that struggled in the past were predominately regional heavy, not mainline heavy. For AA only JFK & MIA have higher ratios which is driven primarily by INTL widebody flying and the fact they aren't domestic connectors.


AA has cut or is cutting both the pilot and FA bases in PHX by approximately 1/3 over the pre merger levels. Doesn't this bode poorly for the mainline / regional ratio staying the way it is?

A few years ago it was rumored that either CP or MQ were going to start flying E175s from PHX to places like OAK, SJC, ONT, BUR, SNA and replace some mainline flying. That never happened and instead it appears a lot of routes like AUS, SAT, IAH, and even FAT got up gauged to mainline (although at a loss of frequency).

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