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MIflyer12
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Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Fri Sep 06, 2019 5:48 pm

Well-reasoned, knope2001.

There aren't too many non-DL hub airports that get 3x out of CVG, and they're all much bigger markets than MKE: ORD, PHL, CLT, DFW, DCA, and BWI if my quick look at Monday's schedule is complete. Not even DEN/PHX/LAS/IAH.
 
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CarlosSi
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Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Sat Sep 07, 2019 11:45 pm

I’d pay delivery to have some of their cookie dough shipped here to try them!
 
727LOVER
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Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Mon Sep 16, 2019 8:16 pm

Here is another pic



A friend of mine was telling me that I may be one of the few people to get a pic of this airline. He thinks it won't get off the ground. That was BEFORE the oil attack in Saudia Arabia. Today, crude closed up around 12%. ME's business plan might now have to adjust for this increase in fuel prices. Would ME be paying for this or Elite? How does THAT work?
"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
SyracuseAvGeek
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Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Mon Sep 16, 2019 8:22 pm

727LOVER wrote:
Here is another pic



A friend of mine was telling me that I may be one of the few people to get a pic of this airline. He thinks it won't get off the ground. That was BEFORE the oil attack in Saudia Arabia. Today, crude closed up around 12%. ME's business plan might now have to adjust for this increase in fuel prices. Would ME be paying for this or Elite? How does THAT work?


This person got a picture of it as well, but it was on the day it was unveiled in Grand Rapids:
https://www.instagram.com/p/B1v8XQCBpG_ ... xuj3eky01s
https://www.instagram.com/p/B1uMgl0B09P ... m0wk0pv74l
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F9Animal
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Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:14 pm

So, they are still in the process of getting their own AOC. Perhaps we might see Midwest get it's own metal eventually. And Elite stands to benefit from this in the long run as say, a feeder to Midwest? I am really hopeful this works. I have confidence in their CEO. He has a pretty darned good resume!
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KOMAtose
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Midwest Express aiming for January launch

Fri Nov 15, 2019 7:58 pm

https://biztimes.com/midwest-express-hopes-to-launch-service-in-january/

It's been a quiet few months for Midwest Express, but it sounds like they're getting closer to takeoff. Hope they do well (Though I don't know a whole lot about Elite).
 
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sunking737
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Re: Midwest Express aiming for January launch

Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:50 am

I was just thinking about how quiet they have been.
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mke717spotter
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Re: Midwest Express aiming for January launch

Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:20 am

KOMAtose wrote:
It's been a quiet few months for Midwest Express, but it sounds like they're getting closer to takeoff.

Yes, it has been quiet, especially considering their previous plan was to have flights operating by the end of this year. I was starting to think maybe things had petered out. The article mentions that the reservation system will be up by Christmas and then flights will start in January. Is it just me or is that a really small amount of time inbetween those two?
Last edited by mke717spotter on Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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joeljack
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Re: Midwest Express aiming for January launch

Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:36 am

mke717spotter wrote:
KOMAtose wrote:
It's been a quiet few months for Midwest Express, but it sounds like they're getting closer to takeoff.

Yes, it has been quiet, especially considering their previous plan was to have flights operating by the end of this year. I was starting to think maybe things had petered out. The article mentions that the reservation system will be up by Christmas and then flights will start in January. Is it just me or is that a really small amount of time inbetween those two?


Yes, I 100% agree. People in the midwest are planners, less spontaneous than larger cities and I would guess with larger booking lead times. Plus, January and February are notoriously slow for air travel in the upper midwest. I would say start selling ticket by Christmas for a March 1st start unless you want to bleed money for January and February.
 
727LOVER
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Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:20 am

Well...I've got some news.

So the pic I posted in #153...well I saw the plane the other day.

The cheatline is gone. The ME on the tail is gone. It just says MIDWEST E PRESS
...and yes, I am missing a letter, because it wasn't there.

I only saw the left side though.
"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
avtcle
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Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:22 am

The officials behind Midwest Express are seasoned airline executives... I doubt they’d plan for a January launch unless they were confident or knew that it would be profitable. I’m sure they’ve already been lobbying with businesses in Milwaukee who have pledged to take their flights.
 
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B727skyguy
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Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Sat Nov 16, 2019 5:20 am

I wonder what their IATA airline code and ticketing/accounting code will be. YX/453 is now assigned to Republic Airline.
 
KCaviator
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Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:37 pm

727LOVER wrote:
Well...I've got some news.

So the pic I posted in #153...well I saw the plane the other day.

The cheatline is gone. The ME on the tail is gone. It just says MIDWEST E PRESS
...and yes, I am missing a letter, because it wasn't there.

I only saw the left side though.


Sounds promising.
 
MO11
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Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Sat Nov 16, 2019 10:33 pm

B727skyguy wrote:
I wonder what their IATA airline code and ticketing/accounting code will be. YX/453 is now assigned to Republic Airline.



Since it's a virtual airline, why wouldn't it be 7Q/087?
 
RJNUT
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Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Sat Nov 16, 2019 10:52 pm

so is Elite out of the picture or were they just poorly applied decals on the ship?
 
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adamblang
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Re: Midwest Express aiming for January launch

Sat Nov 16, 2019 11:25 pm

mke717spotter wrote:
The article mentions that the reservation system will be up by Christmas and then flights will start in January. Is it just me or is that a really small amount of time inbetween those two?

If their goal is to be a business airline, it's probably fine. Most business travel is booked within two weeks of departure. Leisure travel books a lot further in advance.
 
KOMAtose
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Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Sun Nov 17, 2019 12:17 am

RJNUT wrote:
so is Elite out of the picture or were they just poorly applied decals on the ship?


Elite is still part of the plan afaik though I recall that Midex is also wanting to have a different interior config for their flights, so it's possible the decals will get reapplied when they do that.
 
MO11
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Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Sun Nov 17, 2019 1:46 am

KOMAtose wrote:
RJNUT wrote:
so is Elite out of the picture or were they just poorly applied decals on the ship?


Elite is still part of the plan afaik though I recall that Midex is also wanting to have a different interior config for their flights, so it's possible the decals will get reapplied when they do that.



There are 3 or 4 CRJs that are owned by a leasing company that have found their way to LEW. I think the Midwest Express airplanes will not come from the current Elite fleet.
 
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knope2001
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Re: Midwest Express aiming for January launch

Sun Nov 17, 2019 2:31 pm

adamblang wrote:
mke717spotter wrote:
The article mentions that the reservation system will be up by Christmas and then flights will start in January. Is it just me or is that a really small amount of time inbetween those two?

If their goal is to be a business airline, it's probably fine. Most business travel is booked within two weeks of departure. Leisure travel books a lot further in advance.


Yeah, once they hit mid January business travel is pretty much back. January is still tough, though. In the dead of winter bad weather can essentially wipe days right off the calendar, canceling business travel that often doesn't get rebooked. And whatever slice of the (small) leisure market in these city pairs they might seek for supplemental revenue shrinks greatly in the first quarter.

What worries me a notch more than demand is the operational side. Winter is tough for everybody, and service disruptions can really point out the differences between the big guys and new/tiny Midwest. United won't have a 90 minute deicing delay in Cincinnati because the guy covering second shift has never heard of them, Delta doesn't lose half their fleet if GRR snows in with unexpected lake-effect enhancement. Certainly any time of year a tiny airline has a disadvantage versus the big guys during irregular ops. But winter is the worst, and it will be tough to create a good impression on new customers if you launch in the dead of winter if you hold pax onboard for an hour after landing because the jetway is frozen and nobody working that day knows what to do.

There may well be reasons to get going ASAP -- keeping promises to investors, getting some revenue in to cover fixed costs that happen every day no matter if they are flying or not, etc. But from an operational standpoint -- and maybe a demand standpoint as well -- something in March might not be the worst thing.
 
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sunking737
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Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Sun Nov 17, 2019 4:54 pm

Would doing college charters for a few months give them as cash flow boost?? Money up front vs selling one seat at a time??
"Don't believe it unless its parked on the ramp, or printed in the schedule...SUBJECT TO CHANGE"

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DLX737200
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Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:12 am

sunking737 wrote:
Would doing college charters for a few months give them as cash flow boost?? Money up front vs selling one seat at a time??


Since they're a virtual airline to begin with, they can't do "college charters for a few months." Elite could (and does) but not Midwest. Midwest doesn't own any airplanes or have their own operating certificate yet.
 
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sunking737
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Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Mon Nov 18, 2019 12:26 pm

DLX737200 Thank you for the correction. I forgot they are basically a paper airline. No fleet, etc
"Don't believe it unless its parked on the ramp, or printed in the schedule...SUBJECT TO CHANGE"

I'm a SUNDUCK......Worked for RC & SY @ MSP
 
commpilot
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Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Mon Nov 18, 2019 3:18 pm

mke717spotter wrote:
Some more tidbits:

https://biztimes.com/first-destinations ... lines/?amp

The Midwest Express flights will be offered on 50-seat Bombardier CRJ 200 aircraft, including the plane on display at the press conference on Wednesday.

“The nice thing about the airplane, for the kind of routes we’re starting on, it’s exactly what we want,” Aretakis said. “We were seeking out a partner airline that operated this airplane type.”

When asked how the in-flight seating experience on the new Midwest Express will compare to the original, Aretakis said, “We have leather seats on this airplane, they have extended legroom.” However, “the big seats (that Midwest Express used to have) frankly, they’re a good idea, but they’re not a today idea.”

Passengers on the new Midwest Express will not be charged fees for bags or additional services, Aretakis said.

“One of our hallmarks will be no fees,” he said. “The way the airline business used to be, you buy your ticket and you get all of the components as a part of that. We’ll have complimentary snacks, and we’ll have cookies.”



Extended Legroom??? How can he get away with that lie. No row in a CRJ-200 in full 50 seat configuration has or can have extended Legroom.
 
RJNUT
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Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Mon Nov 18, 2019 3:59 pm

I just don't have an overall good feeling about all this, but do hope it works out. You gotta pull seats to make any legroom enhancements
 
727LOVER
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Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Tue Nov 19, 2019 6:25 pm

727LOVER wrote:
Well...I've got some news.

So the pic I posted in #153...well I saw the plane the other day.

The cheatline is gone. The ME on the tail is gone. It just says MIDWEST E PRESS
...and yes, I am missing a letter, because it wasn't there.

I only saw the left side though.


Here she is last week:

Image

Compared to September:

"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
SyracuseAvGeek
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Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Tue Nov 19, 2019 7:07 pm

727LOVER wrote:
727LOVER wrote:
Well...I've got some news.

So the pic I posted in #153...well I saw the plane the other day.

The cheatline is gone. The ME on the tail is gone. It just says MIDWEST E PRESS
...and yes, I am missing a letter, because it wasn't there.

I only saw the left side though.


Here she is last week:

Image

Compared to September:




That just looks awful, someone could’ve made that on Microsoft paint.

In regards to the ‘X’ missing, the only thing I could think of it maybe they had to open the overwing door, the ‘X’ was partially over that, then decided to get rid of it completely rather than have only half of a letter.
"I haven't been everywhere yet, but it's on my list."
 
KOMAtose
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Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Tue Nov 19, 2019 7:29 pm

https://thepointsguy.com/news/midwest-express-returns/

According to the points guy article, there's will be a flight schedule coming out in about 4 weeks. I assume they'll be in the North Terminal at Eppley, probably in Air Canada's old gate.
 
F27500
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Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Tue Nov 19, 2019 11:19 pm

I give this silliness 5 months tops if it even gets off the ground.
 
F27500
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Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Tue Nov 19, 2019 11:22 pm

commpilot wrote:
mke717spotter wrote:
Some more tidbits:

https://biztimes.com/first-destinations ... lines/?amp

The Midwest Express flights will be offered on 50-seat Bombardier CRJ 200 aircraft, including the plane on display at the press conference on Wednesday.

“The nice thing about the airplane, for the kind of routes we’re starting on, it’s exactly what we want,” Aretakis said. “We were seeking out a partner airline that operated this airplane type.”

When asked how the in-flight seating experience on the new Midwest Express will compare to the original, Aretakis said, “We have leather seats on this airplane, they have extended legroom.” However, “the big seats (that Midwest Express used to have) frankly, they’re a good idea, but they’re not a today idea.”

Passengers on the new Midwest Express will not be charged fees for bags or additional services, Aretakis said.

“One of our hallmarks will be no fees,” he said. “The way the airline business used to be, you buy your ticket and you get all of the components as a part of that. We’ll have complimentary snacks, and we’ll have cookies.”



Extended Legroom??? How can he get away with that lie. No row in a CRJ-200 in full 50 seat configuration has or can have extended Legroom.


The idiotic routes they've chosen are not gonna be plane-fillers anyway ... they could probably take 25 seats out and still have enough,
 
Gulfstream500
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Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Tue Nov 19, 2019 11:40 pm

727LOVER wrote:
727LOVER wrote:
Well...I've got some news.

So the pic I posted in #153...well I saw the plane the other day.

The cheatline is gone. The ME on the tail is gone. It just says MIDWEST E PRESS
...and yes, I am missing a letter, because it wasn't there.

I only saw the left side though.


Here she is last week:

Image

Compared to September:



Wow, did not know that they were going to rename the airline Midwest Epress that quickly after a relaunch. :D
So... when will the Northwest DC-9s be retired?
 
commpilot
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Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Wed Nov 20, 2019 12:05 am

F27500 wrote:
commpilot wrote:
mke717spotter wrote:



Extended Legroom??? How can he get away with that lie. No row in a CRJ-200 in full 50 seat configuration has or can have extended Legroom.


Dupe.


Yep...it's all a Ponzi scheme.
 
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knope2001
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Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Wed Nov 20, 2019 3:45 am

Note that the talk logo and cheatline were also removed. It's one thing to have part of a livery gone when a part is swapped out but the logo and cheatline must have been deliberately removed. That suggests this aircraft is not ultimately going to be designated for Midwest Express service, and that aligns with what MO11 reported about 3-4 CRJ's being leased for Midwest Express ops. Why apply decals to this aircraft if it wasn't bound for Midwest Express? Perhaps it was intended for Midwest Express but they've subsequently obtained other aircraft. Or maybe it was to create buzz in the roadshow.

F27500 wrote:
The idiotic routes they've chosen are not gonna be plane-fillers anyway ... they could probably take 25 seats out and still have enough,


In all seriousness, if you think these are idiotic routes then you don't seem to understand their business plan. It's about getting the high-fare business passenger willing to pay more for business-timed nonstop flights which save significant time, cut down on hotel nights, avoid the time and risk of ORD/DTW/MSP connections. That's the business model.

I'm as curious as anyone about the extra leg room comment. There's not a lot of space to play with on a CRJ. If they really intend to reduce capacity to add legroom they might have to remove two rows as exit row positioning is fairly fixed. If they get the sorts of fares they intend they won't need anywhere close to 42 seats sold, but the problem is business demand has peaks and valleys during the week. So if you can sell 50 seats on Monday morning you may need to in an effort to offset Tuesday night when you can only sell 16 seats. Plus

commpilot wrote:
Yep...it's all a Ponzi scheme.


Care to elaborate on that claim?
 
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sunking737
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Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Wed Nov 20, 2019 3:55 am

MO11 wrote:
KOMAtose wrote:
RJNUT wrote:
so is Elite out of the picture or were they just poorly applied decals on the ship?


Elite is still part of the plan afaik though I recall that Midex is also wanting to have a different interior config for their flights, so it's possible the decals will get reapplied when they do that.



There are 3 or 4 CRJs that are owned by a leasing company that have found their way to LEW. I think the Midwest Express airplanes will not come from the current Elite fleet.


Has anyone seen these planes?? Are they painted?? Any information would be helpful
"Don't believe it unless its parked on the ramp, or printed in the schedule...SUBJECT TO CHANGE"

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Blerg
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Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Wed Nov 20, 2019 5:36 am

Wasn't there an airline in the east (I think they had a base in Pittsburgh) that tried the same? Small planes with business friendly timetable. They merged with another airline that did charters and I think eventually they went bankrupt.

Isn't this kind of the same thing they are trying to do? I thought Pittsburgh would be more lucrative than Milwaukee.
 
RJNUT
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Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Wed Nov 20, 2019 5:45 am

Blerg wrote:
Wasn't there an airline in the east (I think they had a base in Pittsburgh) that tried the same? Small planes with business friendly timetable. They merged with another airline that did charters and I think eventually they went bankrupt.

Isn't this kind of the same thing they are trying to do? I thought Pittsburgh would be more lucrative than Milwaukee.

That was Onejet but they used 9 passenger jets versus 50 passenger. I think Milwaukee has better prospects as they basically have two barriers to drive markets. Lake Michigan and Chicagoland
 
KOMAtose
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Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Wed Nov 20, 2019 5:47 am

Blerg wrote:
Wasn't there an airline in the east (I think they had a base in Pittsburgh) that tried the same? Small planes with business friendly timetable. They merged with another airline that did charters and I think eventually they went bankrupt.

Isn't this kind of the same thing they are trying to do? I thought Pittsburgh would be more lucrative than Milwaukee.


Milwaukee is where the OG Midex was based out of and was its main hub. It makes sense for it to be there.
 
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knope2001
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Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Wed Nov 20, 2019 4:06 pm

RJNUT wrote:
Blerg wrote:
Wasn't there an airline in the east (I think they had a base in Pittsburgh) that tried the same? Small planes with business friendly timetable. They merged with another airline that did charters and I think eventually they went bankrupt.

Isn't this kind of the same thing they are trying to do? I thought Pittsburgh would be more lucrative than Milwaukee.

That was Onejet but they used 9 passenger jets versus 50 passenger. I think Milwaukee has better prospects as they basically have two barriers to drive markets. Lake Michigan and Chicagoland


Yup, I believe you’re thinking of OneJet. That was a very unfortunate venture – some things raised eyebrows at the time but as more came to light it became apparent it was an operation run without much in the way of business ethics, business sense, professionalism or accountability.
--Operated five-seat business jets, then later 8-seat business jets, without any proof on concept that those aircraft could break even at airline-level fares.
--Appears to have not remitted federal taxes collected from day one while managing to keep flying for three years.
--Was behind on pretty much every account, in some cases (apparently) having never made a payment.
--Operated what were essentially joyride trips to Florida each weekend with the 30-seat ERJ which (added in their final months) for friends, family and investors.
--Made no meaningful attempt at basic revenue management in the first 2.5 years of operation. They sold seats well in most markets but did very little toward obtaining higher revenue from popular flights or molding traffic toward lower-demand flights.
--Ceased operations with a shrug, essentially saying “we’re out of money but it was fun while it lasted.”

The one thing OneJet was good at was convincing airline veterans to support their business plan and to get investors to pony up. And they were successful again and again. They originated at Indianapolis and their first two routes were actually Milwaukee-involved: IND-MKE and then MKE-PIT. IND-PIT came shortly thereafter when they got a second aircraft, followed by IND-MEM. After a year they left the Indy operation to chase better funding in Pittsburgh. Toward the end of their lifespan they had announced MKE as the next focus city and (if I recall correctly) pulled in something around $1m in seed money investment from the Milwaukee area. They were always great at selling a vision, and they originally launched with a remarkable list of highly-seasoned set of airline industry advisors – the YouTube video is probably still out there. But one by one it appears they disengaged when they saw the emperor had no clothes. That included former Midwest head Timothy Hoeksema who was an investor in the MKE expansion but, within a handful of months from the public announcement severed ties with OneJet.

The one thing Midwest Express has in common with OneJet is the focus on bringing business-timed nonstop flights in unserved markets with enough demand to support high fares. From there they pretty much diverge.

Obviously the differences between OneJet and Midwest Express do not ensure the new ME will succeed. And if they follow similar business practices as OneJet did they will decidedly fail. However the failure of OneJet leads attempts like Midwest Express to face greater skepticism.
 
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knope2001
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Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Wed Nov 20, 2019 6:11 pm

Here's that OneJet video from when they launched in 2015.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VmQgwA_OqeU

We've got an incredible niche, we're packed with experienced people in key advisory roles. And we're not remitting a cent of the taxes and fees we collect to any governmental agency!

Wait...what?

I don't mean to drive this into (another) OneJet thread but unfortunately they cast a big shadow on any subsequent attempt at serving this segment such as Midwest Express. So they have to be addressed.

The market OneJet targeted absolutely exists in scores of unserved substantial city pairs across the US. And if they are properly targeted and served many of them will give their traffic to that carrier. The question is how many of them will yield enough revenue to support the aircraft available to serve their demand. The big airlines have no incentive to serve this niche for a few key reasons I've mentioned elsewhere:

--They are steadily reducing their 50-seat RJ business and are limited on their larger RJ fleets
--New random point-to-point flying doesn't add much to the network of big airlines overall, and it takes resources away from uses which do add to the network
--What high-fare connecting business travel still does exist in these city pairs is like rather profitable flow through existing big airline hubs, so adding P2P local nonstops would siphon that revenue away from the hubs.

The task for Midwest Express and anybody else trying a similar approach is to find these city pairs and gain enough of the market (away from competitors and the highways) to make a buck.
 
jplatts
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Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Wed Nov 20, 2019 7:31 pm

knope2001 wrote:
The market OneJet targeted absolutely exists in scores of unserved substantial city pairs across the US. And if they are properly targeted and served many of them will give their traffic to that carrier. The question is how many of them will yield enough revenue to support the aircraft available to serve their demand. The big airlines have no incentive to serve this niche for a few key reasons I've mentioned elsewhere:

--They are steadily reducing their 50-seat RJ business and are limited on their larger RJ fleets
--New random point-to-point flying doesn't add much to the network of big airlines overall, and it takes resources away from uses which do add to the network
--What high-fare connecting business travel still does exist in these city pairs is like rather profitable flow through existing big airline hubs, so adding P2P local nonstops would siphon that revenue away from the hubs.

The task for Midwest Express and anybody else trying a similar approach is to find these city pairs and gain enough of the market (away from competitors and the highways) to make a buck.


There are actually still some p2p nonstop routes by US3 carriers that are not to/from hubs on either end, including the following:
AA
BOS-CUN/GCM/MDT/EYW/MBJ/NAS/PLS/PUJ/ROC/SYR
PIT-RDU

DL
CVG-AUS/BWI/CLT/ORD/DFW/DEN/FLL/RSW/BDL/IAH/MCI/LAS/EWR/MCO/PHL/RDU/STL/SFO/TPA/YYZ/DCA (CVG was a former DL hub and still is a focus city for DL)
CLE-BDL
HNL-NGO/KIX/TYO
LAS-LGB/PDX/SNA/SAN/SJC (LGB and SNA are in the same market as DL's LAX hub)
MIA-CMH/HAV/IND/DCA
MCO-CUN/CLE/CMH/GRR/BDL/IND/MEM/MKE/BNA/PIT/STL/DCA
RDU-AUS/BWI/CUN/ORD/CLE/CMH/FLL/RSW/BDL/IND/JAX/LAS/MIA/BNA/MSY/EWR/MCO/PHL/PIT/TPA/DCA (RDU is a focus city for DL)
PDX-TYO

UA
CLE-CUN/CHS/FLL/RSW/LGA/MCO/TPA/DCA (CLE was a former hub for CO and UA, LGA is in the same market as UA's EWR hub, DCA is in the same market as UA's IAD hub)
 
jplatts
Posts: 3601
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Wed Nov 20, 2019 7:55 pm

knope2001 wrote:
The task for Midwest Express and anybody else trying a similar approach is to find these city pairs and gain enough of the market (away from competitors and the highways) to make a buck.


DL adding MKE-RDU nonstop service is a possibility with DL already serving RDU nonstop from ORD, CLE, CMH, and IND in the Midwest.

UA adding MKE-SFO nonstop service is a possibility since (a) the lack of year-round nonstop service to SFO is a huge hole in the MKE market, (b) SFO is a major hub for UA, and (c) there is probably enough O&D to easily fill an A319 or 737-700 on MKE-SFO as the Q1 2019 PDEW on MKE-SFO was 119 passengers per day.

AA adding MKE-MIA nonstop service is a possibility with (a) the Q1 2019 PDEW on MKE-MIA/FLL exceeding the capacity available on the WN MKE-FLL nonstops, (b) MIA/FLL being one of the top markets that AA doesn't currently serve nonstop from MKE, and (c) AA already serving MIA nonstop from ORD, CVG, CLE, CMH, DTW, GRR, IND, MCI, MSP, OMA, and STL in the Midwest.

Here are the Q1 PDEW's of some top routes not currently served nonstop from MKE:
MKE-AUS - 63
MKE-SAT - 62
MKE-PDX - 55
MKE-RDU - 46 (MKE-RDU nonstop service could be added by DL)
MKE-JAX - 45
MKE-TUS - 37
MKE-PBI - 35
MKE-SMF - 34
MKE-PNS - 29
MKE-BDL - 23

Of the top routes not currently served nonstop from MKE, Midwest Express could add nonstop service to AUS, RDU, and SAT out of MKE in addition to the already announced MKE-CVG/GRR/OMA nonstop routes.
 
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knope2001
Posts: 3024
Joined: Wed Jun 01, 2005 5:54 am

Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Thu Nov 21, 2019 5:05 am

jplatts wrote:
Here are the Q1 PDEW's of some top routes not currently served nonstop from MKE:
MKE-AUS - 63
MKE-SAT - 62
MKE-PDX - 55
MKE-RDU - 46 (MKE-RDU nonstop service could be added by DL)
MKE-JAX - 45
MKE-TUS - 37
MKE-PBI - 35
MKE-SMF - 34
MKE-PNS - 29
MKE-BDL - 23

Of the top routes not currently served nonstop from MKE, Midwest Express could add nonstop service to AUS, RDU, and SAT out of MKE in addition to the already announced MKE-CVG/GRR/OMA nonstop routes.


The thing with those quarterly stats is that they are backward looking, not predictive. They are not meaningless but air travel demand between two points is pretty elastic, not a fixed quantity. Demand chases capacity -- added service tends to spur added demand in various ways (though not always profitable demand) while reduced capacity stunts traffic. And that sort of elasticity is especially true when highways are primary competition and/or there's a big nearby airport to which traffic can bleed when capacity is limited or absent.

Here are some examples specific to Milwaukee to illustrate the point . These numbers are all both ways combined.

Milwaukee-Houston (IAH/HOU) saw increased capacity as Southwest added MKE-HOU and United upgaged service in response. Traffic jumped 87%
Average daily Milwaukee-Houston traffic, full year
2016 176/day
2018 329/day, up 87% in two years

Over the same period Milwaukee-San Francisco saw daily nonstop flights reduced to summer peak season only. Traffic plunged 36%
Average daily Milwaukee-San Francisco traffic, full year
2016 367/day
2018 236/day, down 36% in two years

Where did those Houston passengers come from, and where did the San Francisco passengers go? A great deal of the answer is Chicago bleed. A great deal of Milwaukee-Houston's natural traffic used Chicago when all MKE-IAH/HOU was a pair of 50-seat RJ's, and now that Southwest and United added more flights and larger aircraft a lot of that traffic is staying with MKE. The opposite is being seen to SFO -- when there's no nonstop flight a lot of demand bleeds to Chicago. There's also some bleed on the other end -- the nonstop MKE-SFO serves some people who might rather use OAK or SJC, and in the two years since MKE-SFO went seasonal both MKE-OAK and MKE-SJC saw major jumps, but the total MKE-SF Bay traffic is still off 20%. Quite a bit of Milwaukee's demand to the SF Bay Area is spilling to O'Hare.

Neither Houston or Bay Area are near enough for the highway to be a good option to flying. But a Milwaukee market where highways are competition is MKE-BNA. Until two years back MKE-BNA had been unserved for several years. Check out what adding nonstop service did:
Average daily Milwaukee-Nashville traffic full year
2016 83/day
2018 350/day, up 320% in two years

Traffic more than quadrupled in response to getting nonstop flights. Some of that was traffic lost to Chicago, plenty else was lost to the highway. There was undoubtedly also some demand generation spurred by convenient service and lower fares.

Low fare stimulation helps grow a market, of course. But the nonstop flights make a big difference as well. Check out Milwaukee-Salt Lake City, a market which went from no nonstops to a daily nonstop where fares did not go down.
Average daily Milwaukee-Salt Lake traffic full year
2016 85/day
2018 136/day, up 61% in two years
Average full year fare in 2016 was $250.13. For the four most recent quarters (2018 Q2/3/4 & 2019 Q1) was $250.03. Fares did not plunge but the presence of a nonstop flight grew the market by 61% between 2016 and 2018.

What these numbers show is that the stats from the past can't necessarily predict the future because demand is elastic. And specific to Milwaukee there's a lot of bleed to O'Hare when there's no MKE nonstop, and for shorter routes the highway also presents stiff competition. Certainly Milwaukee is not the only airport in the world with bleed to a larger neighbor -- regional airports fight this battle constantly. But Milwaukee is an unusually large market to have this level of bleed.

So what does this mean for Midwest Express? It illustrates how the DoT stats aren't especially predictive to what demand their city pairs will produce with nonstop service. Certainly there are some specifics to Nashville we won't see repeated to Columbus, for example -- BNA is a bigger tourism draw and fares droppped. But MKE-CVG traffic doesn't need to quadruple like MKE-BNA did to fill seats.

Mostly missing from this discussion is the fare side of the picture -- revenue is a function of traffic and the fare paid, of course. So even if a market like MKE-AUS has in recent quarters shown enough traffic to support 50-seat RJs if the fares are too low they could still lose money with full aircraft. 50-seat RJ's are not cheap aircraft to operate per seat-mile and traffic counts alone are only half the picture.

If these first three routes do okay i'd expect CMH and PIT to be next, possibly Indy.
 
n7371f
Posts: 1820
Joined: Fri Jul 04, 2008 3:54 pm

Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Thu Nov 21, 2019 5:30 am

Knope2001 knows what he/she writes about. Wish we could get more straightforwardness like those posts...And makes a valid point that there is a market out of MKE for these initial routes by ME2.

Problem is, to this point the launch appears from this locale cheap and haphazard like so many before it - which all ended shortly thereafter in death.

Having lived in MKE for years, the ME brand meant something. ME would've died years before had it not been based out of MKE. But that loyalty is long gone. And unless Greg and his team can lock down corporate contracts for some semi-fly-by-night operation with second hand junk CRJ-200's operated by a third party, this ain't gonna last long.
 
Bluegrass60
Posts: 444
Joined: Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:15 am

Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Thu Nov 21, 2019 9:39 am

Also note that MKE-BNA traffic would also include a chunk of traffic that connects at BNA to other WN destinations as BNA is large focus operation for WN. WN would not operate that route without the connections available
 
User avatar
knope2001
Posts: 3024
Joined: Wed Jun 01, 2005 5:54 am

Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Thu Nov 21, 2019 7:22 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
Also note that MKE-BNA traffic would also include a chunk of traffic that connects at BNA to other WN destinations as BNA is large focus operation for WN. WN would not operate that route without the connections available


Actually no -- the numbers I posted were strictly O+D. The total number of people on those WN nonstop flights is substantially more than the 350/day -- connections over the BNA hub are on top the 350/day locals. Local traffic exploded with the introduction of nonstop flights in this city pair.
 
jplatts
Posts: 3601
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Thu Nov 21, 2019 8:01 pm

knope2001 wrote:
Mostly missing from this discussion is the fare side of the picture -- revenue is a function of traffic and the fare paid, of course. So even if a market like MKE-AUS has in recent quarters shown enough traffic to support 50-seat RJs if the fares are too low they could still lose money with full aircraft. 50-seat RJ's are not cheap aircraft to operate per seat-mile and traffic counts alone are only half the picture.


WN might be able to make MKE-AUS nonstop service work on at least a summer seasonal basis since (a) the PDEW on MKE-AUS was 105 passengers per day in Q4 2018, (b) WN already has significant market share in both the MKE and AUS markets, and (c) WN already has a significant FF base in both the MKE and AUS markets.

I agree with your point that Midwest Express might lose money on MKE-AUS nonstop service if the fares are too low. The same might be true for WN adding MKE-AUS using 143-seat Boeing 737-700 planes, but WN has much stronger brand recognition and brand loyalty in the AUS market than Midwest Express does.

There are also likely some passengers in AUS who would continue to connect to MKE on WN, AA, UA, or DL instead of taking the Midwest Express nonstop flights if Midwest Express adds MKE-AUS nonstop service, whereas WN would be able to capture more of the passengers in the AUS market who would otherwise connect to MKE on WN or US3 carriers if it adds AUS-MKE nonstop service.
 
User avatar
klm617
Posts: 4997
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Thu Nov 21, 2019 8:37 pm

knope2001 wrote:
jplatts wrote:
Here are the Q1 PDEW's of some top routes not currently served nonstop from MKE:
MKE-AUS - 63
MKE-SAT - 62
MKE-PDX - 55
MKE-RDU - 46 (MKE-RDU nonstop service could be added by DL)
MKE-JAX - 45
MKE-TUS - 37
MKE-PBI - 35
MKE-SMF - 34
MKE-PNS - 29
MKE-BDL - 23

Of the top routes not currently served nonstop from MKE, Midwest Express could add nonstop service to AUS, RDU, and SAT out of MKE in addition to the already announced MKE-CVG/GRR/OMA nonstop routes.


The thing with those quarterly stats is that they are backward looking, not predictive. They are not meaningless but air travel demand between two points is pretty elastic, not a fixed quantity. Demand chases capacity -- added service tends to spur added demand in various ways (though not always profitable demand) while reduced capacity stunts traffic. And that sort of elasticity is especially true when highways are primary competition and/or there's a big nearby airport to which traffic can bleed when capacity is limited or absent.

Here are some examples specific to Milwaukee to illustrate the point . These numbers are all both ways combined.

Milwaukee-Houston (IAH/HOU) saw increased capacity as Southwest added MKE-HOU and United upgaged service in response. Traffic jumped 87%
Average daily Milwaukee-Houston traffic, full year
2016 176/day
2018 329/day, up 87% in two years

Over the same period Milwaukee-San Francisco saw daily nonstop flights reduced to summer peak season only. Traffic plunged 36%
Average daily Milwaukee-San Francisco traffic, full year
2016 367/day
2018 236/day, down 36% in two years

Where did those Houston passengers come from, and where did the San Francisco passengers go? A great deal of the answer is Chicago bleed. A great deal of Milwaukee-Houston's natural traffic used Chicago when all MKE-IAH/HOU was a pair of 50-seat RJ's, and now that Southwest and United added more flights and larger aircraft a lot of that traffic is staying with MKE. The opposite is being seen to SFO -- when there's no nonstop flight a lot of demand bleeds to Chicago. There's also some bleed on the other end -- the nonstop MKE-SFO serves some people who might rather use OAK or SJC, and in the two years since MKE-SFO went seasonal both MKE-OAK and MKE-SJC saw major jumps, but the total MKE-SF Bay traffic is still off 20%. Quite a bit of Milwaukee's demand to the SF Bay Area is spilling to O'Hare.

Neither Houston or Bay Area are near enough for the highway to be a good option to flying. But a Milwaukee market where highways are competition is MKE-BNA. Until two years back MKE-BNA had been unserved for several years. Check out what adding nonstop service did:
Average daily Milwaukee-Nashville traffic full year
2016 83/day
2018 350/day, up 320% in two years

Traffic more than quadrupled in response to getting nonstop flights. Some of that was traffic lost to Chicago, plenty else was lost to the highway. There was undoubtedly also some demand generation spurred by convenient service and lower fares.

Low fare stimulation helps grow a market, of course. But the nonstop flights make a big difference as well. Check out Milwaukee-Salt Lake City, a market which went from no nonstops to a daily nonstop where fares did not go down.
Average daily Milwaukee-Salt Lake traffic full year
2016 85/day
2018 136/day, up 61% in two years
Average full year fare in 2016 was $250.13. For the four most recent quarters (2018 Q2/3/4 & 2019 Q1) was $250.03. Fares did not plunge but the presence of a nonstop flight grew the market by 61% between 2016 and 2018.

What these numbers show is that the stats from the past can't necessarily predict the future because demand is elastic. And specific to Milwaukee there's a lot of bleed to O'Hare when there's no MKE nonstop, and for shorter routes the highway also presents stiff competition. Certainly Milwaukee is not the only airport in the world with bleed to a larger neighbor -- regional airports fight this battle constantly. But Milwaukee is an unusually large market to have this level of bleed.

So what does this mean for Midwest Express? It illustrates how the DoT stats aren't especially predictive to what demand their city pairs will produce with nonstop service. Certainly there are some specifics to Nashville we won't see repeated to Columbus, for example -- BNA is a bigger tourism draw and fares droppped. But MKE-CVG traffic doesn't need to quadruple like MKE-BNA did to fill seats.

Mostly missing from this discussion is the fare side of the picture -- revenue is a function of traffic and the fare paid, of course. So even if a market like MKE-AUS has in recent quarters shown enough traffic to support 50-seat RJs if the fares are too low they could still lose money with full aircraft. 50-seat RJ's are not cheap aircraft to operate per seat-mile and traffic counts alone are only half the picture.

If these first three routes do okay i'd expect CMH and PIT to be next, possibly Indy.



Great post and a concept that few on a.net get. A route stimulates growth.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
Bluegrass60
Posts: 444
Joined: Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:15 am

Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Thu Nov 21, 2019 8:54 pm

knope2001 wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:
Also note that MKE-BNA traffic would also include a chunk of traffic that connects at BNA to other WN destinations as BNA is large focus operation for WN. WN would not operate that route without the connections available


Actually no -- the numbers I posted were strictly O+D. The total number of people on those WN nonstop flights is substantially more than the 350/day -- connections over the BNA hub are on top the 350/day locals. Local traffic exploded with the introduction of nonstop flights in this city pair.


Current Schedule shows 1 or 2 NS. Was not aware PDEW broke out connecting pax...
 
User avatar
knope2001
Posts: 3024
Joined: Wed Jun 01, 2005 5:54 am

Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Fri Nov 22, 2019 12:26 am

klm617 wrote:
Great post and a concept that few on a.net get. A route stimulates growth.


Yup – it does for several reasons:

1. Travelers leave the highway – obviously distances play a factor but I’m certain (for example) a nonstop Florida flight at a regional airport pulls some people off of 2-day driving trips to see Mickey.

2. Ease of travel spurs demand. You can send more people to a sales presentation if there’s no overnight hotel. It’s easier for grandma to see the new grandkid. The go/no go decision on a funeral is easier if it’s a clean in and out. Client visits are in person more often instead of hoping a phone call do. It’s easier to put your kid on a plane to spend a week with their cousins. It’s a more attractive weekend getaway destination if your favorite band or show tour hits that town. You can be more responsive if you’re trying to save a customer who is being courted by a competitor.

3. Nonstop flights pull passengers away from alternate airports. For example traffic demand on MKE-CVG will grow in part by pulling existing travelers off of city pairs like these:
--ORD-CVG will lose passengers who today drive to O’Hare for a nonstop but would prefer to use MKE.
--ATW-CVG (a connection city pair) will lose passengers for whom ATW is the closes airport but once there is a MKE nonstop they will fly it instead.
--MKE-LEX (a connection city pair) will lose passengers for whom LEX is the closest airport but once there is a CVG nonstop they will fly it instead.

4. New competition often lowers fares, and lower prices stimulate demand. It costs an airline less to fly someone nonstop than via a longer two-hop connecting route and so sometimes the lower fares a new nonstop flight brings are in correlation with lower costs, other times they hurt profitability

5. Sometimes if the route is doing poorly fares are slashed for non-competitive reasons – simply to gain some revenue from seats otherwise flying empty. Airlines have (largely) gotten rather good at filling seats which is why it’s not terribly uncommon to see a route getting cut which has filled seats well,

Of course #4 and especially #5 can be unprofitable, making that kind of traffic level – and the growth which spurred it – hard to sustain. But all five of these are responsible for the “demand chases capacity” aspect of growth. And they work in reverse, explaining how cutting service suppresses demand.

Bluegrass60 wrote:
Current Schedule shows 1 or 2 NS. Was not aware PDEW broke out connecting pax...


Yeah, the two primary stat sources people cite are a bit different:

The T-100’s are about flight segments, seats available and passengers filling those seats. It does not matter where any of those people started their journey or are ultimately destined for. It’s about the hop.

The DoT quarterly stats are about people’s actual journey, where they originated and where they finished. Doesn’t matter how they got there – nonstop, through or connecting. Also called “O+D” stats.

The T100’s are the source when people say things like these:
--ABQ-SEA had 83.4% load factor for April.
--Skywest operated 116 trips in July between ORD and MSN but they had 143 scheduled so they had a ton of cancelations.

The DoT stats are the source when people say things like these:
--There were 340 people who flew between Portland and Baltimore 4th quarter of 2014
--There were 170 PDEW who flew between Portland and Baltimore 4th quarter of 2014….340 is both ways combined so to get passengers per day *each way* (PDEW) you have to divide by two
--Average fare on Columbus-Charlotte in Q3 2017 was 196.60 and American was the market share leader with 80.1% of the market and an average fare of $203.19.


So as long as people are being careful/accurate with their statements, when they say something like PDEW they are talking about where passengers started and ended their trip, not the specific flight people took. Among the 350/day average (which as I noted is both ways combined – if I was to call it PDEW 175 would be correct) on MKE-BNA in 2018 we can guess the huge majority flew on those two nonstop flights. But certainly some flew a connection on a different airline or even flew a Southwest connecting flight when the nonstops were sold out (or sold out of cheap seats) or they were willing to connect to get their Skymiles, for example.
 
KOMAtose
Posts: 13
Joined: Fri Nov 15, 2019 7:52 pm

Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Fri Nov 22, 2019 3:46 pm

So, any guesses on what gate(s) MidEx will be occupying at MKE, OMA, GRR and CVG? I know Air Canada left a vacancy at OMA.

Also, were there any other partners MidEx could've gone with besides Elite?

At least they're getting the social media part put together, I consider that a step in the right direction. https://twitter.com/FlyMIDEX
 
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AirportRival
Posts: 404
Joined: Mon Oct 06, 2014 6:24 pm

Re: Midwest Express Route Announcements-August 28th

Fri Nov 22, 2019 6:10 pm

I heard they will get A6 at CVG

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