Planes4you
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:28 pm

BuildingMyBento wrote:
I could see another Western Europe route, as well as a Subsidy Express (aka China) route. Maybe China Eastern will extend their Pittsburgh route to AUS...

(how I weep for more flights from Japanese carriers)


That was a one off flight for China Eastern…
 
Planes4you
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:31 pm

grbauc wrote:
Planes4you wrote:
grbauc wrote:
Yea I think DL will eventually or AA should Focus city it.


Why would AA make AUS a focus city when DFW is 3 hours away



I think DL will hub it and I think AA Should put a Focus city AUS. Well DFW power house is and will be maxed out again soon. Even if AA has a focus city at DFW it can add Nice OD routes out of AUS to maximize and capture some of the other guys connection traffic. To Keep DL out of TEXAS or the region the best they can.

When airlines were more regional when we had 8 national carries, airlines dominated there regions more and I see DL working on that again with there many P2P routes and plethora of focus cites/Mini hubs.



Did you seriously just say DFW is a focus city for AA…
 
Planes4you
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:36 pm

HP69 wrote:
Planes4you wrote:
grbauc wrote:
Yea I think DL will eventually or AA should Focus city it.


Why would AA make AUS a focus city when DFW is 3 hours away


For the same reason DL made BNA a focus city even with ATL up the road.


AA and DL has two completely different strategies
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:37 pm

theasianguy wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:

http://www.austintexas.gov/page/top-ten ... stin-texas

The ~6.5% Asian population only apply to the CITY of Austin (i.e. within city limit), while LAXdude1023's number applied to the metro area (which is more accurate when it comes to catchment of an airport anyway).
-
Within the city Anglo-American indeed no longer form the majority. Asians (including Indian) are indeed the fastest growing group in Austin.

On the flip side, while percentage-wise Austin area has similar amount of Asian to Greater Houston and DFW Metroplex (Around 5-6% total), the total number is just not there. For example, there are ~72k ethnic Chinese ALONE in Greater Houston (Numbers are from ~2013, so I only expect that to go up even more by now), which is already 75% of all of Greater Austin's Asian population. Using the 12.2% Chinese within City of Austin out of all Asians, you're talking about ~13k ethnic Chinese in Austin area, or, 1/6 (at best) of Greater Houston.


Just to clarify, I dont know that Id say the Asian percentage between Austin, DFW, and (especially) Houston are that similar.

Here is from 2017:

Percentage of Asian population:
Greater Houston: 7.7% - 545,052
DFW: 6.5% - 507,544
Metro Austin: 108,636 - 5.4

Asian Growth from 2013-2017
DFW: 114,863
Greater Houston: 101,896
Metro Austin: 22,166

To clarify the above growth, DFW's Asian growth is impressive but its predominantly centered around one country: India. Almost 75k of that 114k came from there. Houston's is much more spread out between East and South Asia.

You asked about Chinese population. Its below:
Greater Houston: 96,116
DFW: 64,171
Austin: 22,360

Heres how many Asian Immigrants came to each metro area in 2017:
Greater Houston: 14,287
DFW: 14,108
Austin Metro Area: 3,042

Heres the top three countries where those people came from:

Greater Houston:
Vietnam: 2,905
India: 2,238
China: 1,673
Pakistan: 1,189
Philippines: 1,061

DFW:
India: 3,056
Vietnam: 1,674
Afghanistan: 988
Nepal: 968
Pakistan: 808

Austin:
India: 516
Vietnam: 273
China: 266
Korea: 173
Philippines: 147


LAXdude1023, many thanks for posting this fascinating demographic data. Would you mind sharing where you are getting these numbers from?


Of course! It’s from the American Community Survey and the INS immigration handbook.
"I dance and laugh among the rotten"
 
Galwayman
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:47 pm

malev2012 wrote:
leftcoast8 wrote:
malev2012 wrote:
A lot of the DUB traffic flows via LHR, why would IAG want to add another TATL flight when they already carry most of the traffic?


Wouldn't that be a backtrack? Kind of like how Australia-India pax have to backtrack via DXB


Yea its a whopping 280 mile backtrack! BA isn't going to let EI operate a rival flight to peel away pax from LHR flight. Out of the list AMS/CDG is the most likely because Oneworld and Star already have TATL where SkyTeam doesn't so they have the most to gain from a new destination.



BA has no veto on other airline routes within IAG .

The low yield London traffic can funnel via DUB (instead of JFK or PHil) and the low yield Dublin traffic can funnel via London ...it’s not an issue
 
BNAMealer
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:52 pm

acavpics wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
acavpics wrote:

Did you forget that Austin is one of the fastest growing metros in the entire country? Let alone Texas.
Roughly 50 people move into the city each day. With that kind of population growth, there's obviously gonna be more demand for international service.


Sure, but without a hub, AUS will have to rely on O&D alone to fill the planes. Do you honestly think it will have enough for places such as DXB? No.

AUS is growing, but let’s get real here....


Hans't DL stated that they planned to make AUS a focus city/secondary hub in the near future? I'd definitely expect them to do it, given that DL is the only US3 carrier w/o a Texas hub.


DL stated in a presentation back in June that AUS, along with BNA/RDU/SJC/CVG are its focus cities of the future. I'd argue AUS is the most intriguing for the reason you stated. However, what exactly they plan to do no one knows. Frankly, with the SkyClub now open and with WN handcuffed by the MAX issues, this would be the time to make a move, but we've heard absolutely nothing so far......

I don't think DL is planning anything major in AUS to be honest.
 
N649DL
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:56 pm

kimimm19 wrote:
Yeah I think Podonktown, USA is eyeing big international routes as well...


AUS is definitely not that. I'm a new arrival living here from LAX and AUS is more down to earth and cultured than expected. DEN for all that INT'L service it gets is more "podunktown" than AUS in many respects as a city itself. I lived there for work in 2016-2017 and couldn't believe how redneck it felt under the hood.

Many of these cities are out of reach for it though. DL flying AUS-CDG or AMS might be a nice alternative considering it's a focus city for AUS now and a gorgeous new SkyClub.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:06 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
Just to clarify, I dont know that Id say the Asian percentage between Austin, DFW, and (especially) Houston are that similar.

Here is from 2017:

Percentage of Asian population:
Greater Houston: 7.7% - 545,052
DFW: 6.5% - 507,544
Metro Austin: 108,636 - 5.4

Asian Growth from 2013-2017
DFW: 114,863
Greater Houston: 101,896
Metro Austin: 22,166

To clarify the above growth, DFW's Asian growth is impressive but its predominantly centered around one country: India. Almost 75k of that 114k came from there. Houston's is much more spread out between East and South Asia.

You asked about Chinese population. Its below:
Greater Houston: 96,116
DFW: 64,171
Austin: 22,360

Heres how many Asian Immigrants came to each metro area in 2017:
Greater Houston: 14,287
DFW: 14,108
Austin Metro Area: 3,042

Heres the top three countries where those people came from:

Greater Houston:
Vietnam: 2,905
India: 2,238
China: 1,673
Pakistan: 1,189
Philippines: 1,061

DFW:
India: 3,056
Vietnam: 1,674
Afghanistan: 988
Nepal: 968
Pakistan: 808

Austin:
India: 516
Vietnam: 273
China: 266
Korea: 173
Philippines: 147


Thanks for providing the numbers. So essentially there are almost the same number of Chinese (Does that include Taiwan?) in Greater Houston than Asians (including Indians) in Greater Austin :white: .

P.S. I'm assuming you just add up the numbers from Harris, Fort Bend, Montgomery, Brazoria, Chambers, Waller, Galveston, etc. (Did I miss any?) for Greater Houston on Census Factfinder? Although most of them are in SW Houston and SW Suburbs like Sugar Land anyway with a few in Clear Lake Area or Katy or Woodlands :).
Free Hong Kong! Free China!
 
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acavpics
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:19 pm

BNAMealer wrote:
I don't think DL is planning anything major in AUS to be honest.


I do agree that AUS will never come close to the size of hubs like ATL, DTW, JFK etc. But I'd expect DL to at least add some more international destinations (Especially to Skyteam hubs) and also strengthen their domestic network. (Hubs like SEA, BOS, SLC, MSP could use some more frequency from AUS)
 
Longhornmaniac
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Fri Aug 30, 2019 12:52 am

BNAMealer wrote:
acavpics wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:

Sure, but without a hub, AUS will have to rely on O&D alone to fill the planes. Do you honestly think it will have enough for places such as DXB? No.

AUS is growing, but let’s get real here....


Hans't DL stated that they planned to make AUS a focus city/secondary hub in the near future? I'd definitely expect them to do it, given that DL is the only US3 carrier w/o a Texas hub.


DL stated in a presentation back in June that AUS, along with BNA/RDU/SJC/CVG are its focus cities of the future. I'd argue AUS is the most intriguing for the reason you stated. However, what exactly they plan to do no one knows. Frankly, with the SkyClub now open and with WN handcuffed by the MAX issues, this would be the time to make a move, but we've heard absolutely nothing so far......

I don't think DL is planning anything major in AUS to be honest.


Could be, although many people speculated this would coincide with the opening of the east concourse extension which, due to some last minute delays, is still not fully operational. The net gain is only a couple of CUTE gates at the moment, with the full concourse expected to be up and running in October.

Time will tell, I suppose.
Cheers,
Cameron
 
Planes4you
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:14 am

leftcoast8 wrote:
AMS/CDG have strong connections to BLR, and with Delta turning Austin into a focus city, it would dovetail well with the DL/KL/AF joint venture.

DUB and PVG are also promising due to the strong tech industry in Ireland, and Shanghai's proximity to Hangzhou (home of Alibaba; many HG tech millionaires have second homes in Shanghai)

Could AUS support a US3 flight to India? e.g. AUS-JFK-DEL on Delta. (I can't see even JFK-BLR happening for many years, but Delhi has a lot of connecting traffic to BLR and HYD.) How about an Emirates flight, maybe 4 weekly? Or is AUS too close to DFW/IAH for AUS-DXB to be profitable?



I doubt AUS will get service to India/Middle East
 
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tlecam
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:02 am

Interesting that so many are DL JV or partner hubs...
BOS-LGA-JFK | A:319/20/21, 332/3, 346 || B:717, 735, 737, 738, 739, 752, 753, 762, 763, 764, 787, 772, 744 || MD80, MD90
 
leftcoast8
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:14 am

Planes4you wrote:
I doubt AUS will get service to India/Middle East


Thinking about it, you're probably right. Even JFK/EWR-India is a bit of a trainwreck, the idea of DFW/IAH (which are already well served by EK and QR) getting direct flights to India let alone AUS is ludicrous. I don't know why I wrote such stupidity.
 
grbauc
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:31 am

steeler83 wrote:
grbauc wrote:
Planes4you wrote:

Why would AA make AUS a focus city when DFW is 3 hours away



I think DL will hub it and I think AA Should put a Focus city AUS. Well DFW power house is and will be maxed out again soon. Even if AA has a focus city at DFW it can add Nice OD routes out of AUS to maximize and capture some of the other guys connection traffic. To Keep DL out of TEXAS or the region the best they can.

When airlines were more regional when we had 8 national carries, airlines dominated there regions more and I see DL working on that again with there many P2P routes and plethora of focus cites/Mini hubs.

Sorry to burst your bubble, but I don't think AA has any interest in adding any focus cities... They've pretty much decided that focus cities don't fit their model like it does with othe airlines. They feel it's better to route pax through their existing hub network instead of adding focus cities in smaller but significant markets like AUS.

For the heck of it, I looked at what AA currently flies on AUS-DFW. Did a dummy booking for mid September, and they run 10 daily departures, a pretty even mix of 737 and A321 equipment. Sure, there's probably massive O&D there, but I'm also willing to bet that there is a ton of connecting traffic routed through the 700-some flights at DFW.



I wonder if people read the words one writes. I clearly let it be known this is what I think they should do not what I think there going to do and or are thinking of doing. LOL No bubble to burst here...

We know there is a good amount of passengers out of AUS, how best to capitalize on them is the question. Yes I agree AA sees routing passengers through its hubs has there current and foreseeable plan. I'm an AA fan and a DL admirer, the industry has been following DL for awhile and in many categories they are tops and for good reason there following DL. With DP at the helm I don't see much change until the market dictates it. The DL lead wasn't always the one to being copied AA won't always Have DP leading it, things will change so we'll see.
Last edited by grbauc on Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:45 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
grbauc
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:37 am

Planes4you wrote:
grbauc wrote:
Planes4you wrote:

Why would AA make AUS a focus city when DFW is 3 hours away



I think DL will hub it and I think AA Should put a Focus city AUS. Well DFW power house is and will be maxed out again soon. Even if AA has a focus city at DFW it can add Nice OD routes out of AUS to maximize and capture some of the other guys connection traffic. To Keep DL out of TEXAS or the region the best they can.

When airlines were more regional when we had 8 national carries, airlines dominated there regions more and I see DL working on that again with there many P2P routes and plethora of focus cites/Mini hubs.



Did you seriously just say DFW is a focus city for AA…
 
grbauc
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:38 am

Planes4you wrote:
HP69 wrote:
Planes4you wrote:

Why would AA make AUS a focus city when DFW is 3 hours away


For the same reason DL made BNA a focus city even with ATL up the road.


AA and DL has two completely different strategies



Yes we Know that and clearly described there differences. I personally believe AA should Mimic DL a bit More on that strat. : )
 
SurlyBonds
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:26 am

Midwestindy wrote:
Enough with the Boston comparisons, BOS is one the largest and most important economic centers in the world. AUS is not comparable at all


As a data point, the Globalization and World Cities Research Network seems to rank Boston as a beta+ city, the same as Cairo, Hamburg, Dusseldorf, Dallas, Bangalore, and Atlanta, to name a few. (So probably a fewer notches lower than your graph.) It ranks Austin as a gamma city, along with Phoenix, Bristol, Charlotte, St. Petersburg (Russia), Islamabad, San Diego, San Jose, and St. Louis.So not as a high Boston, but not a slouch, either.
 
aaexecplat
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:38 am

It is kind of amusing reading the opinions of so many non-Austinites here. Unless you live here, you can't imagine the amount of wealth that is being minted here at present. And it isn't just tech wealth either.

In terms of actual growth, the ATX population grew by 159 and 151 people each day in 2016 and 2017. Not the 50 someone else mentioned earlier in the thread.

But, IMO, the biggest reasons Austin will receive more intl service in the coming years is that it is a market with a massive and very premium-heavy business traveler community. There is a higher concentration of EXPs per passenger enplaned at AUS than anywhere else in AA's system. And fares in all classes are usually very high. And Austinites are a travel-hungry bunch who also have deep pockets. When I travel for pleasure, I usually drive to IAH because fares there are substantially lower.

You can poopoo Austin all you want, but there is no denying that it has transformed itself from a slacker outstation to a growing metropolis where careers are made.

As a resident of AUS, all this growth is now showing symptoms that are not good. Horrendous traffic, the worst cost of living anywhere in TX, and general affordability issues including steep property tax increases thanks to real estate speculation and foreign investment.

Will Austin get all those route? I don't think so. But I would not be surprised by AMS, CDG or NRT in the slightest. China and Ireland seem unlikely IMO.

Sent from my SM-T810 using Tapatalk
 
sonicruiser
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Fri Aug 30, 2019 6:58 am

aaexecplat wrote:
Will Austin get all those route? I don't think so. But I would not be surprised by AMS, CDG or NRT in the slightest. China and Ireland seem unlikely IMO


I mean tbh, that's not really saying much. I fly out of TPA frequently and Tampa is considerably smaller than AUS but even TPA already AMS and CDG with DUB right around the corner. Yeah NRT-TPA isn't happening anytime soon but that has more to do with range issues of transpacific flying to the southeast in general. Meanwhile MCO about an hour east of Tampa has a nonstop to DXB and bucketloads of other TATL flights, all the while NH/JL have been seriously floated interest in starting NRT-MCO if it weren't for the lack of an aircraft that could make the flight. Austin's population is roughly twice Tampa and Orlando combined but has substantially less flights than either.

The problem with Austin really has nothing to do with the city itself. It has more to do with Texas. AA and UA have a vested interest in keeping AUS as small as possible because it is an important captive market for them. They can effectively do this with little to no effort by dumping massive amounts of capacity to IAH and DFW. The proximity of not 1 but 2 superhubs within 40min of AUS by air really kills its ability to stand alone regardless of how good Austin's star power when you're competing with Houston and Dallas. Austin is a very fast growing city, and anywhere outside of Texas, it could easily stand alone as its own hub attracting that kind of international traffic but unfortunately it's not. Living in the shadow of giants is tough. Ask any airport within in the shadow of ATL (Georgia), ORD (Illinois), DEN (Colorado), or LAX (SoCal besides SAN) how hard it is to compete with the big boys and you can start to understand AUS's predicament by being sandwiched between two of those in the Texas triangle.

Don't get me wrong, I have no doubt that AUS will get the likes of NRT, PVG, etc. at the rate it's growing. But it will take a lot longer than if IAH and DFW weren't right next door, when you consider cities on a similar trajectory to Austin like Seattle have had their Int'l air service essentially quadruple overnight relative to AUS. In Seattle's case, part of that has to do with the benefit of geographic isolation unlike Austin, but also that DL has made a somewhat significant, if not misguided effort to build up SEA in a way that they're not doing at AUS, at least not yet. For AUS to start seeing some seeing some dividends, they have to follow the SEA model and figure out how to get DL to build up something beyond just another focus city on their inflight magazine. AUS would well aware that any kind of major build up there from a carrier like DL is going to be watched very carefully from managers with raised eyebrows in DFW and IAH and that any sudden or aggressive changes could trigger a vicious counter response from AA and UA. One could argue that DL trying to compete in Texas is almost as difficult as trying to build a hub in ORD given how short the distance is between AA and UA's fortress hubs and AUS and the amount of capacity they could dump together to force DL out much like in ORD. For DL to succeed in AUS, they'll have to make some drastic changes and abandon the tepid approach they're taking now which would inevitably mean facing AA and UA head on instead of pretending to ignore them. For now, I doubt they can pull that off considering how they're getting their ass handed to them by B6 in BOS and AS in SEA. If DL wants to get in on the action in Texas, AA and UA aren't going to let it capture AUS, one of their most valuable captive markets, lying down so you can definitely expect a fight when that day comes.

In a way, the IAH/DFW/AUS dynamic is kind of like a bigger variant of the SF Bay Area. You have SFO/OAK/SJC with SFO and to some extent OAK as hubs that dominate the area and then SJC as the "other" airport that lies in the shadow of the first two and is used by a very specific group of people that are going to that part of the Bay. AUS and SJC both share this weird dynamic of the business tech crowd that possibly to the detriment of those airports is so niche that instead of eating away at the more diversified share of the bigger airports, caters exclusively to this unique biz tech crowd that puts it on a shaky foundation of thin ice which is especially prominent with SJC and to some degree AUS when anything in the tech economy takes a hit, highlighting the risks of putting all your eggs in one basket. This is the basic reason why airports like TPA have more service than AUS despite being significantly smaller, as essentially what it comes down to is how diversified the economy is. A general rule of thumb is that a smaller, more steady, and diversified economy is more sustainable in the long-term than a larger but more unpredictable one where longevity is the most important thing for airlines when starting routes. Austin blows the doors off Tampa in the startup/entrepreneur scene which everybody touts, but that crowd is not reliable enough for an airline looking to start a route, so that argument actually works against AUS and in favor of TPA which focuses more on promoting a reliable corporate presence to airlines in addition to the already consistent flow of tourism. Consistency is the key here. Unicorns like those found in Silicon Valley are notorious for nosediving and that has exposed some of the potential problems under the SJC model with cutbacks resulting directly from the performance of the tech industry and little else to fall back on. AUS should understand that dynamic carefully and take caution to avoid replicating it. I should add one other thing that unlike AUS in Texas, TPA and MCO despite being so close don't compete for connections nor does either airport have a hub carrier which is the complete opposite of the Texas situation where IAH and DFW are an issue for AUS precisely because they have strong hub carriers with numerous connections to AUS. MIA connections don't dominate any airport in FL anywhere near as much as the Texas duopoly does in AUS.

Austin will grow as will its airport given the exploding population and number of Fortune 500 companies opening up shop in the city but that also means that it will have to learn to hold its own against Dallas and Houston before it can really takeoff. Watch this space.
 
Pi7472000
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:50 am

N649DL wrote:
kimimm19 wrote:
Yeah I think Podonktown, USA is eyeing big international routes as well...


AUS is definitely not that. I'm a new arrival living here from LAX and AUS is more down to earth and cultured than expected. DEN for all that INT'L service it gets is more "podunktown" than AUS in many respects as a city itself. I lived there for work in 2016-2017 and couldn't believe how redneck it felt under the hood.

Many of these cities are out of reach for it though. DL flying AUS-CDG or AMS might be a nice alternative considering it's a focus city for AUS now and a gorgeous new SkyClub.


I would disagree! I am from LA and have lived in AUS and DEN as well. AUS felt like a small town and much more of a “podunktown” and redneck than Denver or LA. The weather in Austin was awful compared both to LA and DEN as well. I would pick DEN over AUS for culture and quality of life any day, although I prefer LA over both of them. AUS May see limited service internationally in the future, but with IAH and DFW so close I would not expect much.
 
axiom
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:26 am

sonicruiser wrote:
aaexecplat wrote:
Will Austin get all those route? I don't think so. But I would not be surprised by AMS, CDG or NRT in the slightest. China and Ireland seem unlikely IMO


I mean tbh, that's not really saying much. I fly out of TPA frequently and Tampa is considerably smaller than AUS but even TPA already AMS and CDG with DUB right around the corner. Yeah NRT-TPA isn't happening anytime soon but that has more to do with range issues of transpacific flying to the southeast in general. Meanwhile MCO about an hour east of Tampa has a nonstop to DXB and bucketloads of other TATL flights, all the while NH/JL have been seriously floated interest in starting NRT-MCO if it weren't for the lack of an aircraft that could make the flight. Austin's population is roughly twice Tampa and Orlando combined but has substantially less flights than either.

The problem with Austin really has nothing to do with the city itself. It has more to do with Texas. AA and UA have a vested interest in keeping AUS as small as possible because it is an important captive market for them. They can effectively do this with little to no effort by dumping massive amounts of capacity to IAH and DFW. The proximity of not 1 but 2 superhubs within 40min of AUS by air really kills its ability to stand alone regardless of how good Austin's star power when you're competing with Houston and Dallas. Austin is a very fast growing city, and anywhere outside of Texas, it could easily stand alone as its own hub attracting that kind of international traffic but unfortunately it's not. Living in the shadow of giants is tough. Ask any airport within in the shadow of ATL (Georgia), ORD (Illinois), DEN (Colorado), or LAX (SoCal besides SAN) how hard it is to compete with the big boys and you can start to understand AUS's predicament by being sandwiched between two of those in the Texas triangle.

Don't get me wrong, I have no doubt that AUS will get the likes of NRT, PVG, etc. at the rate it's growing. But it will take a lot longer than if IAH and DFW weren't right next door, when you consider cities on a similar trajectory to Austin like Seattle have had their Int'l air service essentially quadruple overnight relative to AUS. In Seattle's case, part of that has to do with the benefit of geographic isolation unlike Austin, but also that DL has made a somewhat significant, if not misguided effort to build up SEA in a way that they're not doing at AUS, at least not yet. For AUS to start seeing some seeing some dividends, they have to follow the SEA model and figure out how to get DL to build up something beyond just another focus city on their inflight magazine. AUS would well aware that any kind of major build up there from a carrier like DL is going to be watched very carefully from managers with raised eyebrows in DFW and IAH and that any sudden or aggressive changes could trigger a vicious counter response from AA and UA. One could argue that DL trying to compete in Texas is almost as difficult as trying to build a hub in ORD given how short the distance is between AA and UA's fortress hubs and AUS and the amount of capacity they could dump together to force DL out much like in ORD. For DL to succeed in AUS, they'll have to make some drastic changes and abandon the tepid approach they're taking now which would inevitably mean facing AA and UA head on instead of pretending to ignore them. For now, I doubt they can pull that off considering how they're getting their ass handed to them by B6 in BOS and AS in SEA. If DL wants to get in on the action in Texas, AA and UA aren't going to let it capture AUS, one of their most valuable captive markets, lying down so you can definitely expect a fight when that day comes.

In a way, the IAH/DFW/AUS dynamic is kind of like a bigger variant of the SF Bay Area. You have SFO/OAK/SJC with SFO and to some extent OAK as hubs that dominate the area and then SJC as the "other" airport that lies in the shadow of the first two and is used by a very specific group of people that are going to that part of the Bay. AUS and SJC both share this weird dynamic of the business tech crowd that possibly to the detriment of those airports is so niche that instead of eating away at the more diversified share of the bigger airports, caters exclusively to this unique biz tech crowd that puts it on a shaky foundation of thin ice which is especially prominent with SJC and to some degree AUS when anything in the tech economy takes a hit, highlighting the risks of putting all your eggs in one basket. This is the basic reason why airports like TPA have more service than AUS despite being significantly smaller, as essentially what it comes down to is how diversified the economy is. A general rule of thumb is that a smaller, more steady, and diversified economy is more sustainable in the long-term than a larger but more unpredictable one where longevity is the most important thing for airlines when starting routes. Austin blows the doors off Tampa in the startup/entrepreneur scene which everybody touts, but that crowd is not reliable enough for an airline looking to start a route, so that argument actually works against AUS and in favor of TPA which focuses more on promoting a reliable corporate presence to airlines in addition to the already consistent flow of tourism. Consistency is the key here. Unicorns like those found in Silicon Valley are notorious for nosediving and that has exposed some of the potential problems under the SJC model with cutbacks resulting directly from the performance of the tech industry and little else to fall back on. AUS should understand that dynamic carefully and take caution to avoid replicating it. I should add one other thing that unlike AUS in Texas, TPA and MCO despite being so close don't compete for connections nor does either airport have a hub carrier which is the complete opposite of the Texas situation where IAH and DFW are an issue for AUS precisely because they have strong hub carriers with numerous connections to AUS. MIA connections don't dominate any airport in FL anywhere near as much as the Texas duopoly does in AUS.

Austin will grow as will its airport given the exploding population and number of Fortune 500 companies opening up shop in the city but that also means that it will have to learn to hold its own against Dallas and Houston before it can really takeoff. Watch this space.


TPA is more than 50% more populous than AUS. As others have pointed out, population statistics are not the most useful way of gauging air service demand. Moreover, you need to use a metro population figure - if not a regional catchment figure - to talk about the relationship between air service demand and market size, not city population. :)
 
Ziyulu
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Fri Aug 30, 2019 12:45 pm

You never know. With China's one route, one carrier policy, a Chinese carrier might do AUS. For example, HU from PEK to AUS.
 
JAMBOJET
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Fri Aug 30, 2019 12:55 pm

aaexecplat wrote:
It is kind of amusing reading the opinions of so many non-Austinites here. Unless you live here, you can't imagine the amount of wealth that is being minted here at present. And it isn't just tech wealth either.


Will Austin get all those route? I don't think so. But I would not be surprised by AMS, CDG or NRT in the slightest. China and Ireland seem unlikely IMO.

Sent from my SM-T810 using Tapatalk


Obviously speculation on my part, but Dublin doesn't seem all that unlikely to me. AA has a huge strength in AUS and EI is joining their TATL JV. After Brexit (whatever that ends up being), if Ireland were to join the Schengen Area, Dublin could become an easy way to take passengers into secondary EU Markets and EI has some XLRs on the way last I read.
Who knows if it'll ever happen, but DUB seems like it could supplement the LHR flight decently well post-brexit.
 
2travel2know2
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:05 pm

Busyboy2 wrote:
2travel2know2 wrote:
Aiming very high those Texans.
And the regional international destinations when?
AUS neither interested in AV from SAL nor CM from PTY before they chose SAT?


People from Austin aren't Texans. I could say more but I'd probably get banned off this site.

I don't want to go too off topic but Austin is somewhat to Texas what Portland is to Oregon, Berkeley to SF/California, Sedona to Arizona, Asheville to North Carolina and the State of Vermont to U.S.A.
Back to topic:
But Austin still is Texas and - if it includes some SAT O/D - it has its draw to attract some international service.
I'm not on CM's payroll.
 
SCQ83
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:11 pm

JAMBOJET wrote:
Obviously speculation on my part, but Dublin doesn't seem all that unlikely to me. AA has a huge strength in AUS and EI is joining their TATL JV. After Brexit (whatever that ends up being), if Ireland were to join the Schengen Area, Dublin could become an easy way to take passengers into secondary EU Markets and EI has some XLRs on the way last I read.
Who knows if it'll ever happen, but DUB seems like it could supplement the LHR flight decently well post-brexit.


I don't see what changes Schengen or non Schengen. If you fly Schengen-DUB-US you are in a sterile area (you do not "enter" Ireland). Not different than flying Schengen-FRA-US.
 
JAMBOJET
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:20 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
JAMBOJET wrote:
Obviously speculation on my part, but Dublin doesn't seem all that unlikely to me. AA has a huge strength in AUS and EI is joining their TATL JV. After Brexit (whatever that ends up being), if Ireland were to join the Schengen Area, Dublin could become an easy way to take passengers into secondary EU Markets and EI has some XLRs on the way last I read.
Who knows if it'll ever happen, but DUB seems like it could supplement the LHR flight decently well post-brexit.


I don't see what changes Schengen or non Schengen. If you fly Schengen-DUB-US you are in a sterile area (you do not "enter" Ireland). Not different than flying Schengen-FRA-US.

Good point. There probably isn’t a big difference, if any
 
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:35 pm

Longhornmaniac wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
SCQ83 wrote:
IMO the comparison with Boston is quite accurate. AUS is a much smaller market (which some posters don't seem to understand this is not what we are arguing about :)) but there are certain similarities (tourism, universities, tech economy). Boston has also JFK/EWR about 4 hours-drive. I bet only 10 years ago it was the excuse not to have BOS-Asia services... after all NYC was a short drive/train/plane down the road. Like Austin today with IAH/DFW.

As for the comparison with the 1990s, international traffic overall was much lower. Not even starting with China.


I'm not sure how saying Boston and Austin have similarities proves anything, by that same token Boston and Madison, WI have similarities. Those similarities mean nothing unless they are comparable in scale.

Btw, driving from Boston to JFK/EWR?!?!?


I agree with your first statements. Comparing Boston, even 20 years ago, to Austin now is a lousy one.

But understand that to Texans, driving to DFW from Austin is as ridiculous as driving from Boston to New York. It's the same distance within a couple of miles. So when people suggest Austinites are apt to drive from Austin to DFW to fly somewhere, it's the same as asking if a Bostonian would drive to New York, or, in terms you'd understand, Indianapolis to O'Hare.

There are probably some select few that do it, but for the vast majority it's seen as a pretty ridiculous notion.


Yep. We are not gonna do that. I'd even fly to DAL and ride the train to DFW than drive on I-35.
 
bravotango75
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:43 pm

2travel2know2 wrote:
Busyboy2 wrote:
2travel2know2 wrote:
Aiming very high those Texans.
And the regional international destinations when?
AUS neither interested in AV from SAL nor CM from PTY before they chose SAT?


People from Austin aren't Texans. I could say more but I'd probably get banned off this site.

I don't want to go too off topic but Austin is somewhat to Texas what Portland is to Oregon, Berkeley to SF/California, Sedona to Arizona, Asheville to North Carolina and the State of Vermont to U.S.A.
Back to topic:
But Austin still is Texas and - if it includes some SAT O/D - it has its draw to attract some international service.

Sad, isn’t it. So sad that states lose their identity and what made the unique when ‘outsiders’ move and change the culture.
 
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:45 pm

WN732 wrote:
Longhornmaniac wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

I'm not sure how saying Boston and Austin have similarities proves anything, by that same token Boston and Madison, WI have similarities. Those similarities mean nothing unless they are comparable in scale.

Btw, driving from Boston to JFK/EWR?!?!?


I agree with your first statements. Comparing Boston, even 20 years ago, to Austin now is a lousy one.

But understand that to Texans, driving to DFW from Austin is as ridiculous as driving from Boston to New York. It's the same distance within a couple of miles. So when people suggest Austinites are apt to drive from Austin to DFW to fly somewhere, it's the same as asking if a Bostonian would drive to New York, or, in terms you'd understand, Indianapolis to O'Hare.

There are probably some select few that do it, but for the vast majority it's seen as a pretty ridiculous notion.


Yep. We are not gonna do that. I'd even fly to DAL and ride the train to DFW than drive on I-35.


Speaking from experience, I'm willing to wager that the drive from Boston to Newark or JFK, is significantly worse than AUS to DFW. And, I'm almost 100% positive that a significantly larger percentage of people drive AUS to DFW to catch a flight than BOS to NYC to catch a flight.

Btw, the drive from IND to ORD isn't bad, although not ideal.
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Planes4you
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:01 pm

leftcoast8 wrote:
Planes4you wrote:
I doubt AUS will get service to India/Middle East


Thinking about it, you're probably right. Even JFK/EWR-India is a bit of a trainwreck, the idea of DFW/IAH (which are already well served by EK and QR) getting direct flights to India let alone AUS is ludicrous. I don't know why I wrote such stupidity.


Except DFW and iah can maintain a flight to India considering how many there are living in Texas (DFW has the most)
 
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:43 pm

bravotango75 wrote:
2travel2know2 wrote:
Busyboy2 wrote:

People from Austin aren't Texans. I could say more but I'd probably get banned off this site.

I don't want to go too off topic but Austin is somewhat to Texas what Portland is to Oregon, Berkeley to SF/California, Sedona to Arizona, Asheville to North Carolina and the State of Vermont to U.S.A.
Back to topic:
But Austin still is Texas and - if it includes some SAT O/D - it has its draw to attract some international service.

Sad, isn’t it. So sad that states lose their identity and what made the unique when ‘outsiders’ move and change the culture.


You really don't know a thing about Austin, do you? Austin has been this way for decades, long before any emigration en masse. It's precisely why it has appealed to so many people from elsewhere; that it's not like the rest of Texas.
Cheers,
Cameron
 
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:50 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
WN732 wrote:
Longhornmaniac wrote:

I agree with your first statements. Comparing Boston, even 20 years ago, to Austin now is a lousy one.

But understand that to Texans, driving to DFW from Austin is as ridiculous as driving from Boston to New York. It's the same distance within a couple of miles. So when people suggest Austinites are apt to drive from Austin to DFW to fly somewhere, it's the same as asking if a Bostonian would drive to New York, or, in terms you'd understand, Indianapolis to O'Hare.

There are probably some select few that do it, but for the vast majority it's seen as a pretty ridiculous notion.


Yep. We are not gonna do that. I'd even fly to DAL and ride the train to DFW than drive on I-35.


Speaking from experience, I'm willing to wager that the drive from Boston to Newark or JFK, is significantly worse than AUS to DFW. And, I'm almost 100% positive that a significantly larger percentage of people drive AUS to DFW to catch a flight than BOS to NYC to catch a flight.

Btw, the drive from IND to ORD isn't bad, although not ideal.


While the NYC-Boston drive probably does take about 30 minutes longer on average, with the perpetual construction on I-35 drive times between Austin and the Metroplex are a real crapshoot, and enough to deter most people who might consider it. I've been at a dead stop on I-35 at 10 PM on more than 1 occasion.

You might be right that a larger percentage do it, but I'm almost 100% positive that in an absolute sense it's not a meaningful number in an absolute sense. IAH is probably a little bit larger as a percentage and a total number just because it's a little closer.

I might be biased because the only time I've driven ORD to IND was in January right as an ice storm hit. It was a nightmare! :lol: Even in the best of times, it's not something I'd want to do if I had to then go somewhere else. If I was just going to Chicago, then sure, I'd drive it, but the thought of getting back from a trip and then having to drive 3+ hours from ORD to Indy, or DFW to AUS just isn't pleasant.
Cheers,
Cameron
 
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chepos
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AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:31 pm

Since they came up with a shooting for the stars kind of list, surprised they did not mention HKG or GRU. Airports can dream I guess.


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Last edited by chepos on Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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TYWoolman
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:31 pm

Maybe Delta's strategy is slow and steady. Allowing the low-cost carriers to grow along side it in Austin will keep a buffer to any American and United capacity-dumping. This way Delta can differentiate itself as the sole global carrier there. Furthermore, any attempt to thwart Austin from having long-term viable hub operations by any carrier from the likes of American DFW and United HOU would be shameful being that AUS is in the capital of the state. Won't look good politically.
 
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:43 pm

Longhornmaniac wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
WN732 wrote:

Yep. We are not gonna do that. I'd even fly to DAL and ride the train to DFW than drive on I-35.


Speaking from experience, I'm willing to wager that the drive from Boston to Newark or JFK, is significantly worse than AUS to DFW. And, I'm almost 100% positive that a significantly larger percentage of people drive AUS to DFW to catch a flight than BOS to NYC to catch a flight.

Btw, the drive from IND to ORD isn't bad, although not ideal.


While the NYC-Boston drive probably does take about 30 minutes longer on average, with the perpetual construction on I-35 drive times between Austin and the Metroplex are a real crapshoot, and enough to deter most people who might consider it. I've been at a dead stop on I-35 at 10 PM on more than 1 occasion.

You might be right that a larger percentage do it, but I'm almost 100% positive that in an absolute sense it's not a meaningful number in an absolute sense. IAH is probably a little bit larger as a percentage and a total number just because it's a little closer.

I might be biased because the only time I've driven ORD to IND was in January right as an ice storm hit. It was a nightmare! :lol: Even in the best of times, it's not something I'd want to do if I had to then go somewhere else. If I was just going to Chicago, then sure, I'd drive it, but the thought of getting back from a trip and then having to drive 3+ hours from ORD to Indy, or DFW to AUS just isn't pleasant.


I have driven AUS-DFW only once. In March 2015, I drove with wife and kids to DFW to catch flights to KOA on UA because UA had run a ~$400 sale over spring break from DFW. The drive up and back was so bad including traffic jams, construction debris that I swore to myself I would never do it again even for dirst cheap fares.

I have since driven it from DFW-AUS a few months ago when AA stranded me at DFW late at night, and it was a horror show, as well. And unlike BOS-EWR, there is no train service...
Last edited by aaexecplat on Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
aaexecplat
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:43 pm

Longhornmaniac wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
WN732 wrote:

Yep. We are not gonna do that. I'd even fly to DAL and ride the train to DFW than drive on I-35.


Speaking from experience, I'm willing to wager that the drive from Boston to Newark or JFK, is significantly worse than AUS to DFW. And, I'm almost 100% positive that a significantly larger percentage of people drive AUS to DFW to catch a flight than BOS to NYC to catch a flight.

Btw, the drive from IND to ORD isn't bad, although not ideal.


While the NYC-Boston drive probably does take about 30 minutes longer on average, with the perpetual construction on I-35 drive times between Austin and the Metroplex are a real crapshoot, and enough to deter most people who might consider it. I've been at a dead stop on I-35 at 10 PM on more than 1 occasion.

You might be right that a larger percentage do it, but I'm almost 100% positive that in an absolute sense it's not a meaningful number in an absolute sense. IAH is probably a little bit larger as a percentage and a total number just because it's a little closer.

I might be biased because the only time I've driven ORD to IND was in January right as an ice storm hit. It was a nightmare! :lol: Even in the best of times, it's not something I'd want to do if I had to then go somewhere else. If I was just going to Chicago, then sure, I'd drive it, but the thought of getting back from a trip and then having to drive 3+ hours from ORD to Indy, or DFW to AUS just isn't pleasant.


I have driven AUS-DFW only once. In March 2015, I drove with wife and kids to DFW to catch flights to KOA on UA because UA had run a ~$400 sale over spring break from DFW. The drive up and back was so bad including traffic jams, construction debris that I swore to myself I would never do it again even for dirst cheap fares.

I have since driven it from DFW-AUS a few months ago when AA stranded me at DFW late at night, and it was a horror show, as well. And unlike BOS-EWR, there is no train service...
 
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spinotter
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:44 pm

bravotango75 wrote:
2travel2know2 wrote:
Busyboy2 wrote:

People from Austin aren't Texans. I could say more but I'd probably get banned off this site.

I don't want to go too off topic but Austin is somewhat to Texas what Portland is to Oregon, Berkeley to SF/California, Sedona to Arizona, Asheville to North Carolina and the State of Vermont to U.S.A.
Back to topic:
But Austin still is Texas and - if it includes some SAT O/D - it has its draw to attract some international service.

Sad, isn’t it. So sad that states lose their identity and what made the unique when ‘outsiders’ move and change the culture.


I'm sorry, but the identity of Texas before high-tech Austin and massive immigration is not something anyone would shed a single tear over.
 
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BN727227Ultra
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:47 pm

I had to do a few DFW-Killeen trips from 2015-2017. IH-35 was under construction the whole time. The parts that were open were fantastic, but that's faint praise because there were so few open parts. One problem is that there's no bypass around Waco worthy of the name. One trip, it took 2 hours to transit the city because of a jacknifed truck in downtown, with a fuel spill.
 
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:49 pm

chepos wrote:
Since they came up with a shooting for the stars kind of list, surprised they did not mention HKG or GRU. Airports can dream I guess.


It could be politics as usual, virtue-signalling by another name. Press release touting an initiative knowing that no one will bite.
 
bravotango75
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:38 pm

spinotter wrote:
bravotango75 wrote:
2travel2know2 wrote:
I don't want to go too off topic but Austin is somewhat to Texas what Portland is to Oregon, Berkeley to SF/California, Sedona to Arizona, Asheville to North Carolina and the State of Vermont to U.S.A.
Back to topic:
But Austin still is Texas and - if it includes some SAT O/D - it has its draw to attract some international service.

Sad, isn’t it. So sad that states lose their identity and what made the unique when ‘outsiders’ move and change the culture.


I'm sorry, but the identity of Texas before high-tech Austin and massive immigration is not something anyone would shed a single tear over.

Must not be a ‘native’.
 
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william
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:50 pm

WN732 wrote:
Longhornmaniac wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

I'm not sure how saying Boston and Austin have similarities proves anything, by that same token Boston and Madison, WI have similarities. Those similarities mean nothing unless they are comparable in scale.

Btw, driving from Boston to JFK/EWR?!?!?


I agree with your first statements. Comparing Boston, even 20 years ago, to Austin now is a lousy one.

But understand that to Texans, driving to DFW from Austin is as ridiculous as driving from Boston to New York. It's the same distance within a couple of miles. So when people suggest Austinites are apt to drive from Austin to DFW to fly somewhere, it's the same as asking if a Bostonian would drive to New York, or, in terms you'd understand, Indianapolis to O'Hare.

There are probably some select few that do it, but for the vast majority it's seen as a pretty ridiculous notion.


Yep. We are not gonna do that. I'd even fly to DAL and ride the train to DFW than drive on I-35.


Why? Construction on I-35 is for the most part done (except the mess around Waco) and the speed limit is 90.........errrrrrrrrrr.............75mph.
 
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william
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:55 pm

spinotter wrote:
bravotango75 wrote:
2travel2know2 wrote:
I don't want to go too off topic but Austin is somewhat to Texas what Portland is to Oregon, Berkeley to SF/California, Sedona to Arizona, Asheville to North Carolina and the State of Vermont to U.S.A.
Back to topic:
But Austin still is Texas and - if it includes some SAT O/D - it has its draw to attract some international service.

Sad, isn’t it. So sad that states lose their identity and what made the unique when ‘outsiders’ move and change the culture.


I'm sorry, but the identity of Texas before high-tech Austin and massive immigration is not something anyone would shed a single tear over.


As an African American living in Texas most of my life, please inform me what I have been missing?

We use to have a phrase,"Texas Friendly", with all of the new growth, its not so "Friendly" especially on the freeways.
Last edited by william on Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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william
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:56 pm

BN727227Ultra wrote:
I had to do a few DFW-Killeen trips from 2015-2017. IH-35 was under construction the whole time. The parts that were open were fantastic, but that's faint praise because there were so few open parts. One problem is that there's no bypass around Waco worthy of the name. One trip, it took 2 hours to transit the city because of a jacknifed truck in downtown, with a fuel spill.


Alot of Sun City residents near Georgetown fly out of GRK instead of going to AUS.
 
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BN727227Ultra
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:59 pm

william wrote:
BN727227Ultra wrote:
I had to do a few DFW-Killeen trips from 2015-2017. IH-35 was under construction the whole time. The parts that were open were fantastic, but that's faint praise because there were so few open parts. One problem is that there's no bypass around Waco worthy of the name. One trip, it took 2 hours to transit the city because of a jacknifed truck in downtown, with a fuel spill.


Alot of Sun City residents near Georgetown fly out of GRK instead of going to AUS.


Can't blame them. GRK is a nice pocket-size field.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:01 pm

Longhornmaniac wrote:
bravotango75 wrote:
2travel2know2 wrote:
I don't want to go too off topic but Austin is somewhat to Texas what Portland is to Oregon, Berkeley to SF/California, Sedona to Arizona, Asheville to North Carolina and the State of Vermont to U.S.A.
Back to topic:
But Austin still is Texas and - if it includes some SAT O/D - it has its draw to attract some international service.

Sad, isn’t it. So sad that states lose their identity and what made the unique when ‘outsiders’ move and change the culture.


You really don't know a thing about Austin, do you? Austin has been this way for decades, long before any emigration en masse. It's precisely why it has appealed to so many people from elsewhere; that it's not like the rest of Texas.


I'll add on - if anything, things are probably more diluted nowaday in Austin. Terms like "People's Republic of Austin" or "Keep Austin Weird" isn't even as true nowaday as all those outside people moved in.

bravotango75 wrote:
Must not be a ‘native’.


Agree - plus there's not really any "Texas" identity anyway (Ok, other than "Everything is bigger in Texas"). Some podunk town in East Texas certainly doesn't represent a place in RGV or the true "prairie" (aka where the whole Texas cowboy image came from) up in the panhandle.

Longhornmaniac wrote:
I might be biased because the only time I've driven ORD to IND was in January right as an ice storm hit. It was a nightmare! Even in the best of times, it's not something I'd want to do if I had to then go somewhere else. If I was just going to Chicago, then sure, I'd drive it, but the thought of getting back from a trip and then having to drive 3+ hours from ORD to Indy, or DFW to AUS just isn't pleasant.


As I live in Indiana now and was an Austinite, all I'll say is it's just not comparable. Between IND and ORD there's not really much outside of flat farmlands, with the only notable larger city being Lafayette/West Lafayette (Which I-65 "loop" around) until you get to outskirt of Chicagoland (i.e. Merrillville/Crown Point/Gary). Meanwhile, there's Waco and Temple/Killeen on I-35 between Austin and the Metroplex, with I-35 literally go through the middle of those two metropolitan area/city.

Driving between IND and ORD feels more like driving between the Metroplex and Houston on I-45 anyway (Ok, that's actually a even more boring drive).
Free Hong Kong! Free China!
 
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spinotter
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:13 pm

bravotango75 wrote:
spinotter wrote:
bravotango75 wrote:
Sad, isn’t it. So sad that states lose their identity and what made the unique when ‘outsiders’ move and change the culture.


I'm sorry, but the identity of Texas before high-tech Austin and massive immigration is not something anyone would shed a single tear over.

Must not be a ‘native’.


One wonders what a native would be. An armadillo perhaps?
 
dfdubflyer
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:14 pm

spinotter wrote:
bravotango75 wrote:
2travel2know2 wrote:
I don't want to go too off topic but Austin is somewhat to Texas what Portland is to Oregon, Berkeley to SF/California, Sedona to Arizona, Asheville to North Carolina and the State of Vermont to U.S.A.
Back to topic:
But Austin still is Texas and - if it includes some SAT O/D - it has its draw to attract some international service.

Sad, isn’t it. So sad that states lose their identity and what made the unique when ‘outsiders’ move and change the culture.


I'm sorry, but the identity of Texas before high-tech Austin and massive immigration is not something anyone would shed a single tear over.


Lol... we invented the microchip (in Dallas btw), but sure all rednecks. You’re a troll.
 
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william
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:24 pm

There were alot skepticism here on Anet when London nonstops started from AUS and they seem to be successful. Now we have Lufthansa starting FRA service because there was a market for it. Many here really do not understand the economic dynomo called Austin.

I get it, some may be tired of hearing how "wonderful" Austin is (personally I miss the "weird" and fun Austin from the 90s with Funky Mueller Airport) but if a domestic or International carrier is looking at International expansion, AUS is near the top of their lists.
 
TYWoolman
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:55 pm

sonicruiser wrote:
aaexecplat wrote:
Will Austin get all those route? I don't think so. But I would not be surprised by AMS, CDG or NRT in the slightest. China and Ireland seem unlikely IMO


I mean tbh, that's not really saying much. I fly out of TPA frequently and Tampa is considerably smaller than AUS but even TPA already AMS and CDG with DUB right around the corner. Yeah NRT-TPA isn't happening anytime soon but that has more to do with range issues of transpacific flying to the southeast in general. Meanwhile MCO about an hour east of Tampa has a nonstop to DXB and bucketloads of other TATL flights, all the while NH/JL have been seriously floated interest in starting NRT-MCO if it weren't for the lack of an aircraft that could make the flight. Austin's population is roughly twice Tampa and Orlando combined but has substantially less flights than either.

The problem with Austin really has nothing to do with the city itself. It has more to do with Texas. AA and UA have a vested interest in keeping AUS as small as possible because it is an important captive market for them. They can effectively do this with little to no effort by dumping massive amounts of capacity to IAH and DFW. The proximity of not 1 but 2 superhubs within 40min of AUS by air really kills its ability to stand alone regardless of how good Austin's star power when you're competing with Houston and Dallas. Austin is a very fast growing city, and anywhere outside of Texas, it could easily stand alone as its own hub attracting that kind of international traffic but unfortunately it's not. Living in the shadow of giants is tough. Ask any airport within in the shadow of ATL (Georgia), ORD (Illinois), DEN (Colorado), or LAX (SoCal besides SAN) how hard it is to compete with the big boys and you can start to understand AUS's predicament by being sandwiched between two of those in the Texas triangle.

Don't get me wrong, I have no doubt that AUS will get the likes of NRT, PVG, etc. at the rate it's growing. But it will take a lot longer than if IAH and DFW weren't right next door, when you consider cities on a similar trajectory to Austin like Seattle have had their Int'l air service essentially quadruple overnight relative to AUS. In Seattle's case, part of that has to do with the benefit of geographic isolation unlike Austin, but also that DL has made a somewhat significant, if not misguided effort to build up SEA in a way that they're not doing at AUS, at least not yet. For AUS to start seeing some seeing some dividends, they have to follow the SEA model and figure out how to get DL to build up something beyond just another focus city on their inflight magazine. AUS would well aware that any kind of major build up there from a carrier like DL is going to be watched very carefully from managers with raised eyebrows in DFW and IAH and that any sudden or aggressive changes could trigger a vicious counter response from AA and UA. One could argue that DL trying to compete in Texas is almost as difficult as trying to build a hub in ORD given how short the distance is between AA and UA's fortress hubs and AUS and the amount of capacity they could dump together to force DL out much like in ORD. For DL to succeed in AUS, they'll have to make some drastic changes and abandon the tepid approach they're taking now which would inevitably mean facing AA and UA head on instead of pretending to ignore them. For now, I doubt they can pull that off considering how they're getting their ass handed to them by B6 in BOS and AS in SEA. If DL wants to get in on the action in Texas, AA and UA aren't going to let it capture AUS, one of their most valuable captive markets, lying down so you can definitely expect a fight when that day comes.

In a way, the IAH/DFW/AUS dynamic is kind of like a bigger variant of the SF Bay Area. You have SFO/OAK/SJC with SFO and to some extent OAK as hubs that dominate the area and then SJC as the "other" airport that lies in the shadow of the first two and is used by a very specific group of people that are going to that part of the Bay. AUS and SJC both share this weird dynamic of the business tech crowd that possibly to the detriment of those airports is so niche that instead of eating away at the more diversified share of the bigger airports, caters exclusively to this unique biz tech crowd that puts it on a shaky foundation of thin ice which is especially prominent with SJC and to some degree AUS when anything in the tech economy takes a hit, highlighting the risks of putting all your eggs in one basket. This is the basic reason why airports like TPA have more service than AUS despite being significantly smaller, as essentially what it comes down to is how diversified the economy is. A general rule of thumb is that a smaller, more steady, and diversified economy is more sustainable in the long-term than a larger but more unpredictable one where longevity is the most important thing for airlines when starting routes. Austin blows the doors off Tampa in the startup/entrepreneur scene which everybody touts, but that crowd is not reliable enough for an airline looking to start a route, so that argument actually works against AUS and in favor of TPA which focuses more on promoting a reliable corporate presence to airlines in addition to the already consistent flow of tourism. Consistency is the key here. Unicorns like those found in Silicon Valley are notorious for nosediving and that has exposed some of the potential problems under the SJC model with cutbacks resulting directly from the performance of the tech industry and little else to fall back on. AUS should understand that dynamic carefully and take caution to avoid replicating it. I should add one other thing that unlike AUS in Texas, TPA and MCO despite being so close don't compete for connections nor does either airport have a hub carrier which is the complete opposite of the Texas situation where IAH and DFW are an issue for AUS precisely because they have strong hub carriers with numerous connections to AUS. MIA connections don't dominate any airport in FL anywhere near as much as the Texas duopoly does in AUS.

Austin will grow as will its airport given the exploding population and number of Fortune 500 companies opening up shop in the city but that also means that it will have to learn to hold its own against Dallas and Houston before it can really takeoff. Watch this space.


Nice thought-out comments!
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 5868
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Re: AUS eyes nonstop flights to 7 interc’l destinations: AMS, BJS, DUB, CDG, ICN, PVG, TYO

Fri Aug 30, 2019 8:06 pm

spinotter wrote:
bravotango75 wrote:
2travel2know2 wrote:
I don't want to go too off topic but Austin is somewhat to Texas what Portland is to Oregon, Berkeley to SF/California, Sedona to Arizona, Asheville to North Carolina and the State of Vermont to U.S.A.
Back to topic:
But Austin still is Texas and - if it includes some SAT O/D - it has its draw to attract some international service.

Sad, isn’t it. So sad that states lose their identity and what made the unique when ‘outsiders’ move and change the culture.


I'm sorry, but the identity of Texas before high-tech Austin and massive immigration is not something anyone would shed a single tear over.


What do you think our culture was?
"I dance and laugh among the rotten"

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