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Devilfish
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Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:31 pm

moa999 wrote:
Confirmed as 78 by AAG

Here is Flightglobal's version.....

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... rs-460579/
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Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:01 pm

The plural of anecdote is anecdotes, not data.
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Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:43 pm

juliuswong wrote:
PT AirAsia Indonesia Extra which used to operate long haul flight out of DPS and CGK, is now doing Hajj charter flight for other airlines.

The airlines two A330s are chartered by Biman Bangladesh. The flight numbers they are using have BG/BBC prefixes.
 
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Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:38 pm

Q: How long before this order get's re adjusted again?

A: When's the next major airshow? :lol:
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Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Sat Aug 31, 2019 5:06 am

Separate companies (and stock market listings) and books but interrelated.

AAX.MK is trading near 5-yr lows and has a MCap of only US$170m according to Bloomberg.
Air Asia itself owns 14% and others entities associated with Tony another 17%

By comparison the main company Air Asia Berhad 5099.MK is a bit above 2016 lows and has a Mcap of about US$1.4bn
 
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Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Sat Aug 31, 2019 5:08 am

Did anyone honestly expect them to order 100 A330NEO's?

Air Asia X currently operates only 24 A330-300. 78 A330NEO requires massive yearly growth. Then they ordered 30 A321XLR's on top.

Even if growth is at 20% per year they will require the A330NEO deliveries to be spread out over 15 years. The current A330NEO backlog will be gone in only 5 years.

Obviously the A330NEO will not drop down to a production rate of 1 aircraft per month to sustain such orders. Airbus will convert these final orders to a different model.
 
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Re: Updated: Air Asia converting to 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr from previously announced 34 A330neo

Sat Aug 31, 2019 6:42 am

LOIs and MOUs are the perfect moveable feast in aviation forums. Can be used for boasting a manufacturer’s fortunes or dismissed as a pipe dream that will never materialise depending on one’s allegiances towards A or B.
 
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Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Sat Aug 31, 2019 8:36 am

So FACT is +12 A330NEO and +30 A321XLR in the order books. What a revelation...
 
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Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Sat Aug 31, 2019 9:35 am

Gosh. Where did all the posts go?

RJMAZ wrote:
Obviously the A330NEO will not drop down to a production rate of 1 aircraft per month to sustain such orders. Airbus will convert these final orders to a different model.


An A330NEO "Bear" presumably.

This 12 makes A330NEO orders for 2 months running, and 260 net orders by my calculation, with EK still to firm.
Once deliveries stabilise I think the type will see plenty more orders.
I suspect the A330NEO will be in production for a fair bit longer than its detractors think.

Rgds
 
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Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Sat Aug 31, 2019 1:52 pm

Considering how many LCCs operate 788s, I wonder why the a338 isn't as popular with them?
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Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Sat Aug 31, 2019 2:05 pm

RalXWB wrote:
So FACT is +12 A330NEO and +30 A321XLR in the order books. What a revelation...


Yes, 42 new firm orders, Airbus must be gutted!

The key result to me is that this looks maybe to have shut the door on the MoM at AA.
 
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Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Sat Aug 31, 2019 2:14 pm

RalXWB wrote:
So FACT is +12 A330NEO and +30 A321XLR in the order books.

Yes, and 24 A330neo "intentions" not in the order books, trading off 6 months of A330 production coming relatively soon for less than one month of A321 production coming relatively late.

It's the kind of "kick the can down the road" move you often see from airlines not making money ( ref: https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... 18-456014/ ).
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Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Sat Aug 31, 2019 2:33 pm

Revelation wrote:
RalXWB wrote:
So FACT is +12 A330NEO and +30 A321XLR in the order books.

Yes, and 24 A330neo "intentions" not in the order books, trading off 6 months of A330 production coming relatively soon for less than one month of A321 production coming relatively late.

It's the kind of "kick the can down the road" move you often see from airlines not making money ( ref: https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... 18-456014/ ).

Well, much better to adjust to changes in the market than be stubborn and get stuck with planes not needed, isn’t it?
“Kick the can down the road” would be more like go for the 34 A330neo as first intended and then defer the order indefinitely.

Considering how bad shape Malaysia Airlines is in, I wouldn’t be surprised if AirAsia is in a better situation in a few years in both short- and long haul markets.
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Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Sat Aug 31, 2019 2:44 pm

musman9853 wrote:
Considering how many LCCs operate 788s, I wonder why the a338 isn't as popular with them?
Only AAX and Cebu Pacific have been willing to put 3-3-3 into a 330.
At 2-4-2 versus a 3-3-3 787 is far more competitive.
 
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Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Sat Aug 31, 2019 3:04 pm

moa999 wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
Considering how many LCCs operate 788s, I wonder why the a338 isn't as popular with them?
Only AAX and Cebu Pacific have been willing to put 3-3-3 into a 330.
At 2-4-2 versus a 3-3-3 787 is far more competitive.


Air Transat?

788 were really cheap to have in the beginning, weren't they?
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Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Sat Aug 31, 2019 3:21 pm

astuteman wrote:
Gosh. Where did all the posts go?

This is a strange situation for the a.net community. A fanboys cannot really party since it’s „only“ an order for 12 A330‘s and the LoI for significantly more airframes didn’t materialize. The A-not-so-much-fanboys can’t party either since an order for 12 widebodies and 30 A321 isn’t that bad. This leaves kind of a vacuum in the discussion. :-/

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Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Sat Aug 31, 2019 3:41 pm

Revelation wrote:
RalXWB wrote:
So FACT is +12 A330NEO and +30 A321XLR in the order books.

Yes, and 24 A330neo "intentions" not in the order books, trading off 6 months of A330 production coming relatively soon for less than one month of A321 production coming relatively late.

It's the kind of "kick the can down the road" move you often see from airlines not making money ( ref: https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... 18-456014/ ).


Can one trade off "intentions that were not/never in the order books"?

Did any material sum of money exchange for that "not in the order books" deal?
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Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Sat Aug 31, 2019 3:46 pm

astuteman wrote:
Gosh. Where did all the posts go?

RJMAZ wrote:
Obviously the A330NEO will not drop down to a production rate of 1 aircraft per month to sustain such orders. Airbus will convert these final orders to a different model.

An A330NEO "Bear" presumably.

This 12 makes A330NEO orders for 2 months running, and 260 net orders by my calculation, with EK still to firm.
Once deliveries stabilise I think the type will see plenty more orders.
I suspect the A330NEO will be in production for a fair bit longer than its detractors think.

Airbus has it at 248 ( https://www.airbus.com/content/dam/corp ... ist-EN.pdf ) and Wiki has the same. Then, +40 for EK presuming they sign, inshallah.

Top customers:
66 Air Asia
60 Emirates
35 Delta
29 Air Lease Corp
28 Iran

So there's some risk in that 'net', I think it's fair to say.

Air Asia and EK need to perform to expectations, lessors need to close deals, Iran has to get itself off the sanctions list.

It should see its way through, but if the economy makes leasing difficult, Iran stays on the sanctions list, and one of the blue chip customers (DL, EK) finds it doesn't like the product as much as it thought, the picture can change.

They could really use another blue chip customer (LH Group?) and some strong reviews from customers, and maybe some traction on the military/cargo side.

Otherwise, Boeing does have those 787 slots to fill coming up in the not too distant future.

PW100 wrote:
Can one trade off "intentions that were not/never in the order books"?

Did any material sum of money exchange for that "not in the order books" deal?

Ironic post, given that one of our highly respected members just counted EK in the A330neo 'net orders' column.

I'll be waiting for you to direct similar outrage at astuteman.

I bet I'll be waiting a long time.
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Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Sat Aug 31, 2019 5:16 pm

Revelation wrote:
Airbus has it at 248

Then, +40 for EK presuming they sign, inshallah


And 248 plus 12 new firm orders comes to...? Astuteman’s total. :confused:

Given EK has started scheduling A330neo deliveries, I’d suggest November will see everything finalised with Airbus. :wink2:

Iran Air just requires patience. Trump won’t be president for ever.

Trying to characterise a new order for 42 frames as some kind of ‘bad thing’ is an interesting tactic. If, as was distinctly possible, Air Asia X had selected 787s for their fleet expansion, then firmed an order for 12 787s and 30 737-10s would that have been a bad thing for Boeing? :scratchchin:
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Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Sat Aug 31, 2019 8:34 pm

As it is part of the discussion: The delivery flight for the second A330-900 Neo to AirAsia X is ongoing. The jet has just reached the Bengal sea on the way to Indonesia.
https://www.flightradar24.com/TAX1901/21ea72d4

So only 74 A330-900 Neo to be delivered.
 
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Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Sat Aug 31, 2019 9:52 pm

Revelation wrote:
PW100 wrote:
Can one trade off "intentions that were not/never in the order books"?

Did any material sum of money exchange for that "not in the order books" deal?

Ironic post, given that one of our highly respected members just counted EK in the A330neo 'net orders' column.

I'll be waiting for you to direct similar outrage at astuteman.

I bet I'll be waiting a long time.


I don't see the need trump your own outrage. We'll see what wil happen.
Nice way to, ironically, avoid the question in the first place. Wonder if that will get any attention. Should I wait on that as long as you?
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Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:49 pm

Revelation wrote:
Ironic post, given that one of our highly respected members just counted EK in the A330neo 'net orders' column.


He did? :confused:

In your haste to play down this order, you seem to be misreading what others are posting and failing at maths.

Astuteman said (my emphasis):
astuteman wrote:
This 12 makes A330NEO orders for 2 months running, and 260 net orders by my calculation, with EK still to firm.


So no, he didn't include Emirates' pending order. :shakehead:
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Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Sat Aug 31, 2019 11:51 pm

scbriml wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Ironic post, given that one of our highly respected members just counted EK in the A330neo 'net orders' column.


He did? :confused:

In your haste to play down this order, you seem to be misreading what others are posting and failing at maths.

Astuteman said (my emphasis):
astuteman wrote:
This 12 makes A330NEO orders for 2 months running, and 260 net orders by my calculation, with EK still to firm.


So no, he didn't include Emirates' pending order. :shakehead:

You are correct, I was flipping between the Airbus page and Wiki and this thread and got myself confused, thus the bad math.

Regardless, I was not playing down this order: I was just stating the obvious, Airbus would be better off with selling 34 A330neo rather than 12 A330neo + 30 A321xlr. Team B would prefer the wide body orders as well, they can actually ship them!

And despite my personal wishes, Trump's loyal opposition does not seem to be capable of producing a candidate to knock him off his throne, so be prepared for Iran to be kept waiting at least four more years if not more beyond that.
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Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:17 am

T4thH wrote:
As it is part of the discussion: The delivery flight for the second A330-900 Neo to AirAsia X is ongoing. The jet has just reached the Bengal sea on the way to Indonesia.
https://www.flightradar24.com/TAX1901/21ea72d4

So only 74 A330-900 Neo to be delivered.

Thanks for the delivery update. A minor correction, still 78 A339neo (66 firm order previously signed and 12 new firm order) to be delivered. The first two for Thai AirAsia X, HS-XJA and HS-XJB, are not part of AirAsia Group's order for 78.

I can see some here are squabbling over the 34 order. It was never firmed up or proposed and out into voting for the shareholders' approval during AGM. Hence Airbus order sheet was showing 66 all while long. AirAsia signed the LoI to lock in preferential treatment in case they decided to change their order based on industry trend and market demand. All in all, pretty shrewd for them to do so. Business as usual, win win for both Airbus and AirAsia as Airbus will keep diminishing the business case for B797 or any MoM they will offer and AirAsia get preferential discount and delivery slot for A321XLR.
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Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:31 am

musman9853 wrote:
Considering how many LCCs operate 788s, I wonder why the a338 isn't as popular with them?

The 787-8 is much lighter than the A330-800 per square metre of cabin area.

787-8 is 119t at 232m2 = 1.95m2 per ton
A330-800 129t 237m2 = 1.84m2 per ton

7.5% is a massive difference! Airport fees are based on weight which is not good on shorter flights

The 787-8 also burns less fuel per at any given payload than the A330-800. The A330-800 as a very slight range advantage so unless the airline had a route in their network that needed that range it is a poor choice.

Now the A330-900 vs 787-9 is roughly half the percentage weight difference per cabin area. The 787 gain more weight over the shorter family member as it is more than a simple stretch. The A330-900 is still worse than the 787-9 in weight per area and fuel burn per payload but it is close enough that other factors can come into play.

If an airline already operated A330CEO's that now be enough. Also if the airline is willing to accept very poor comfort using 9ab in the A330-900 then the fuel burn per seat can actually reach parity with the 787-9. Combine 9ab with a good aircraft purchase price and an ultra low cost carrier will most likely order the A330-900 over the 787-9.
 
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Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Sun Sep 01, 2019 2:12 am

juliuswong wrote:
It was never firmed up or proposed and out into voting for the shareholders' approval during AGM. Hence Airbus order sheet was showing 66 all while long. AirAsia signed the LoI to lock in preferential treatment in case they decided to change their order based on industry trend and market demand. All in all, pretty shrewd for them to do so. Business as usual, win win for both Airbus and AirAsia as Airbus will keep diminishing the business case for B797 or any MoM they will offer and AirAsia get preferential discount and delivery slot for A321XLR.

Buying and selling aircraft is part of the normal business of an airline and there is no need for shareholders' approval for these transactions.

I never thought that AirAsia X group would go over to the Boeing camp because they are so heavily invested (together with Airasia Group) in Airbus technology. Furthermore, Airbus and CFM behave more like partners to them - so they are more than just suppliers. Airbus is putting quite a bit of non-aircraft related investment with Airasia Group as well as their Malaysian MRO facilites (Sepang Aircraft Engineering). Now doubt, South East Asia will be a big market for them as the Lion Group in Indonesia have big orders for Airbus aircraft too,

The A339/321XLR combo does indeed give AirAsia X Group a big advantage in keeping its CASK low and giving a lot of flexibility in scheduling and capacity management. Many of their routes are seasonal and it would be good if they can add or reduce capacity as an when required.
 
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Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Sun Sep 01, 2019 2:58 am

moa999 wrote:
Only AAX and Cebu Pacific have been willing to put 3-3-3 into a 330.

Lion Air have been configuring all its A330-300s and -900s with all-economy 3-3-3 seats. Some of the Philippine Airlines' A330 also have 3-3-3 seat configuration.
 
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Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Sun Sep 01, 2019 3:16 am

afterburner wrote:
moa999 wrote:
Only AAX and Cebu Pacific have been willing to put 3-3-3 into a 330.

Lion Air have been configuring all its A330-300s and -900s with all-economy 3-3-3 seats. Some of the Philippine Airlines' A330 also have 3-3-3 seat configuration.

Worth noting, Lion Air is the only airline that maximise the max capacity 440 allowed for A330ceo. Their A330neo has 436 seats (thank to afterburner for correction.)

Cebu Pacific currently has 436. AirAsia X 367.

Philippines Airlines no longer has any 404 high density layout and not all have 3-3-3 seating configuration. Only three versions exist now (309 seater 2-4-2, 363 domestic 3-3-3 and 363 international version 3-3-3)

But like what everyone mentioned earlier JT, 5J, D7 and PL all have 3-3-3 configuration, (except PL 309 version). I believe most charter airlines with A330 all posses same configuration.
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Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Sun Sep 01, 2019 4:16 am

juliuswong wrote:
Worth noting, Lion Air is the only airline that maximise the max capacity allowed for A330. They have 440 configuration in both A330ceo and A330neo.

According to Simple Flying, Lions' A330neos have "only" 436 passenger seats. However, according to FlightGlobal, Cebu Pacific will beat the number. The airline will have 460 seas in its neos.
 
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Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Sun Sep 01, 2019 4:32 am

French A330 launch customer Air Inter specified 3-3-3 around 30 years ago! Air Transat's are also 3-3-3, Air Caraibes, French Bee too. So it's not just an Asian thing.
 
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Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Sun Sep 01, 2019 6:08 am

afterburner wrote:
juliuswong wrote:
Worth noting, Lion Air is the only airline that maximise the max capacity allowed for A330. They have 440 configuration in both A330ceo and A330neo.

According to Simple Flying, Lions' A330neos have "only" 436 passenger seats. However, according to FlightGlobal, Cebu Pacific will beat the number. The airline will have 460 seas in its neos.

Thanks for correcting me. Amended my original post to avoid misunderstanding. Thanks for the info on 5J's A330neo. That's crazy, another 20 pax, I was curious how are they gonna do that.
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Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Sun Sep 01, 2019 6:50 am

scbriml wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Ironic post, given that one of our highly respected members just counted EK in the A330neo 'net orders' column.


He did? :confused:

In your haste to play down this order, you seem to be misreading what others are posting and failing at maths.

Astuteman said (my emphasis):
astuteman wrote:
This 12 makes A330NEO orders for 2 months running, and 260 net orders by my calculation, with EK still to firm.


So no, he didn't include Emirates' pending order. :shakehead:


Don't worry, my friend.
It seems to be "Get Astuteman" week this week, if you go and look at the MAX engines thread in tech-ops and see the outrageous lies being told about my posting behaviour on there.
I do wonder why … :)

Rgds
 
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Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:56 am

Revelation wrote:
You are correct, I was flipping between the Airbus page and Wiki and this thread and got myself confused, thus the bad math.


Fair enough. Even I've done that from time to time. :wink2:

Revelation wrote:
And despite my personal wishes, Trump's loyal opposition does not seem to be capable of producing a candidate to knock him off his throne, so be prepared for Iran to be kept waiting at least four more years if not more beyond that.


I didn't put a time limit on the patience! :lol:
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kelval
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Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:59 am

juliuswong wrote:
afterburner wrote:
moa999 wrote:
Only AAX and Cebu Pacific have been willing to put 3-3-3 into a 330.

Lion Air have been configuring all its A330-300s and -900s with all-economy 3-3-3 seats. Some of the Philippine Airlines' A330 also have 3-3-3 seat configuration.

Worth noting, Lion Air is the only airline that maximise the max capacity 440 allowed for A330ceo. Their A330neo has 436 seats (thank to afterburner for correction.)

Cebu Pacific currently has 436. AirAsia X 367.

Philippines Airlines no longer has any 404 high density layout and not all have 3-3-3 seating configuration. Only three versions exist now (309 seater 2-4-2, 363 domestic 3-3-3 and 363 international version 3-3-3)

But like what everyone mentioned earlier JT, 5J, D7 and PL all have 3-3-3 configuration, (except PL 309 version). I believe most charter airlines with A330 all posses same configuration.


In 3-3-3 config, you can also add:
- Air Caraïbes (TX), that have 4 A333 with 354 and 378 seats configs.
- XL airways (SE) that have 1 A333 with 408 and and 3 A332 with 361.

Both companies are very much french and you can't really say things like small sized passengers etc. They serve destinations as far as Reunion Island ( almost 11hrs per Flightradar 24).
I have family on Reunion Island, but I'm almost 6 feet... No way I'm doing this.
 
musman9853
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Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:07 am

RJMAZ wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
Considering how many LCCs operate 788s, I wonder why the a338 isn't as popular with them?

The 787-8 is much lighter than the A330-800 per square metre of cabin area.

787-8 is 119t at 232m2 = 1.95m2 per ton
A330-800 129t 237m2 = 1.84m2 per ton

7.5% is a massive difference! Airport fees are based on weight which is not good on shorter flights

The 787-8 also burns less fuel per at any given payload than the A330-800. The A330-800 as a very slight range advantage so unless the airline had a route in their network that needed that range it is a poor choice.

Now the A330-900 vs 787-9 is roughly half the percentage weight difference per cabin area. The 787 gain more weight over the shorter family member as it is more than a simple stretch. The A330-900 is still worse than the 787-9 in weight per area and fuel burn per payload but it is close enough that other factors can come into play.

If an airline already operated A330CEO's that now be enough. Also if the airline is willing to accept very poor comfort using 9ab in the A330-900 then the fuel burn per seat can actually reach parity with the 787-9. Combine 9ab with a good aircraft purchase price and an ultra low cost carrier will most likely order the A330-900 over the 787-9.


Makes sense thanks!
Welcome to the City Beautiful.
 
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keesje
Posts: 13179
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Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:18 pm

musman9853 wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
Considering how many LCCs operate 788s, I wonder why the a338 isn't as popular with them?

The 787-8 is much lighter than the A330-800 per square metre of cabin area.

787-8 is 119t at 232m2 = 1.95m2 per ton
A330-800 129t 237m2 = 1.84m2 per ton

7.5% is a massive difference! Airport fees are based on weight which is not good on shorter flights

The 787-8 also burns less fuel per at any given payload than the A330-800. The A330-800 as a very slight range advantage so unless the airline had a route in their network that needed that range it is a poor choice.

Now the A330-900 vs 787-9 is roughly half the percentage weight difference per cabin area. The 787 gain more weight over the shorter family member as it is more than a simple stretch. The A330-900 is still worse than the 787-9 in weight per area and fuel burn per payload but it is close enough that other factors can come into play.

If an airline already operated A330CEO's that now be enough. Also if the airline is willing to accept very poor comfort using 9ab in the A330-900 then the fuel burn per seat can actually reach parity with the 787-9. Combine 9ab with a good aircraft purchase price and an ultra low cost carrier will most likely order the A330-900 over the 787-9.


Makes sense thanks!


That would assume the A330-800 is 9-10t heavier than the A330-200.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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enilria
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Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Mon Sep 09, 2019 3:41 pm

juliuswong wrote:
AirAsia Group currently has six short haul subsidiaries and two long haul subsidiaries.
Short Haul
1. AirAsia Malaysia
2. Thai AirAsia
3. AirAsia India
4. AirAsia Japan
5. Philippines AirAsia
6. Indonesia AirAsia

Long Haul
1. AirAsia X Malaysia
2. Thai AirAsia X

PT AirAsia Indonesia Extra which used to operate long haul flight out of DPS and CGK, is now doing Hajj charter flight for other airlines. Upon completion of Hajj charter, both A330ceo would either return to parent company or retired. Previously AirAsia Group transferred five A320 to PT AirAsia Indonesia Extra to fulfill local regulator's requirement of minimum five aircraft in order to retain their AOC. This is no longer a requirement, hence those five A320 went back to Indonesia AirAsia, leaving behind two A330ceo. So technically PT AirAsia Indonesia Extra still exist to date, but as per last quarter presentation, it will be closed down by Q3, 2019.

Realistically, where would this number of A330 NEOs be going, in particular the USA? The 330 NEO can't make Thailand-mainland USA can it? There's been talk of Korea-Japan to mainland USA with Air Asia X. I assume that is still possible.
 
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flee
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Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Mon Sep 09, 2019 4:30 pm

enilria wrote:
Realistically, where would this number of A330 NEOs be going, in particular the USA? The 330 NEO can't make Thailand-mainland USA can it? There's been talk of Korea-Japan to mainland USA with Air Asia X. I assume that is still possible.

The A330 Neos will replace the A333s - these will progressively leave the fleet as the Neos are delivered. Delivery rate if the A339 is not that high and should take about 10 years to complete.

In the long term, all short haul Airasia units are also expected to have the long haul Airasia X sister airline to operate routes over 4 hours flying time.

Flights to the US are expected to stop in Japan - they have fifth freedom rights. Stopping in Japan also allows better fuel burn as they don't need to carry so much fuel on each leg of the flight.

I believe that Thai Airasia X will be exploring some Eastern European routes sometime next year.
 
h1fl1er
Posts: 121
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Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Mon Sep 09, 2019 4:49 pm

astuteman wrote:
Gosh. Where did all the posts go?

An A330NEO "Bear" presumably.

This 12 makes A330NEO orders for 2 months running, and 260 net orders by my calculation, with EK still to firm.
Once deliveries stabilise I think the type will see plenty more orders.
I suspect the A330NEO will be in production for a fair bit longer than its detractors think.

Rgds


I think you're right. It has outsold the 359 in the past 6 years. It's Airbus' currently best performing widebody.

Bc airlines care about margins and purchase price is a big part of that. The 339 remains cheap and capable enough to be a slightly inferior option to the 789 but significantly more available and subject to potentially better pricing (though airbus says they will no longer chase market). That the 339 is old technology is not so important to airlines. Cost cost cost.

Until/unless the 350 series sees a massive drop in price or massive increase in efficiency, it's not going to sell well against even the 339.
 
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enilria
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Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Mon Sep 09, 2019 5:14 pm

flee wrote:
enilria wrote:
Realistically, where would this number of A330 NEOs be going, in particular the USA? The 330 NEO can't make Thailand-mainland USA can it? There's been talk of Korea-Japan to mainland USA with Air Asia X. I assume that is still possible.

The A330 Neos will replace the A333s - these will progressively leave the fleet as the Neos are delivered. Delivery rate if the A339 is not that high and should take about 10 years to complete.

In the long term, all short haul Airasia units are also expected to have the long haul Airasia X sister airline to operate routes over 4 hours flying time.

Flights to the US are expected to stop in Japan - they have fifth freedom rights. Stopping in Japan also allows better fuel burn as they don't need to carry so much fuel on each leg of the flight.

I believe that Thai Airasia X will be exploring some Eastern European routes sometime next year.

What is the likelihood of them doing a NRT "hub" to the USA? My understanding is that they do not have 5th Freedom from NRT, just KIX and NGO. But with NRT now losing so much is that something that starts to make sense? Although there's also ZipAir out at NRT potentially.
 
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flee
Posts: 985
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 8:14 am

Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Mon Sep 09, 2019 5:18 pm

enilria wrote:
What is the likelihood of them doing a NRT "hub" to the USA? My understanding is that they do not have 5th Freedom from NRT, just KIX and NGO. But with NRT now losing so much is that something that starts to make sense? Although there's also ZipAir out at NRT potentially.

I don't think Airasia (Japan) has very good memories of operating out of NRT.

It is more likely that NGO is chosen as it is also the hub for Airasia Japan. NGO is also building a LCC terminal, so won't lose out to NRT.
 
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enilria
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Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Mon Sep 09, 2019 5:25 pm

flee wrote:
enilria wrote:
What is the likelihood of them doing a NRT "hub" to the USA? My understanding is that they do not have 5th Freedom from NRT, just KIX and NGO. But with NRT now losing so much is that something that starts to make sense? Although there's also ZipAir out at NRT potentially.

I don't think Airasia (Japan) has very good memories of operating out of NRT.

It is more likely that NGO is chosen as it is also the hub for Airasia Japan. NGO is also building a LCC terminal, so won't lose out to NRT.

I believe the bilateral specifically excludes Tokyo for 5th Freedom now, perhaps Air Asia was fine with that. I find it hard to believe that NGO to the USA could be comparable to NRT, although I get the connectivity argument. Obviously the USA isn't the only opportunity for them from NGO, but it is what I'm interested in. I think the USA-Japan market could be enormous if there was a ULCC situation in play. You think about how much more Japan has to offer than Iceland which has seen massive air fare price driven growth,
 
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flee
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Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Tue Sep 10, 2019 2:59 am

enilria wrote:
I believe the bilateral specifically excludes Tokyo for 5th Freedom now, perhaps Air Asia was fine with that. I find it hard to believe that NGO to the USA could be comparable to NRT, although I get the connectivity argument. Obviously the USA isn't the only opportunity for them from NGO, but it is what I'm interested in. I think the USA-Japan market could be enormous if there was a ULCC situation in play. You think about how much more Japan has to offer than Iceland which has seen massive air fare price driven growth,

Yes, operating flights beyond Tokyo is quite tough for Malaysian based airlines - so they will probably leave that to a future Airasia X Japan.

However, KIX and NGO looks promising for Airasia X (and maybe Thai Airasia X). Their KUL-KIX-HNL route started as a 4X weekly service but became daily very shortly after that. Once the A339 comes on board, they may wish to consider flying into one of the three cities in the US west coast. (LAX/LAS/SFO)

However, any service needs two way traffic - so pax originating from US will be just as important as pax originating from Japan. ULCC fares may stimulate the market initially but what would be interesting to see is whether it can be sustained.
 
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enilria
Posts: 9617
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Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Tue Sep 10, 2019 1:15 pm

flee wrote:
enilria wrote:
I believe the bilateral specifically excludes Tokyo for 5th Freedom now, perhaps Air Asia was fine with that. I find it hard to believe that NGO to the USA could be comparable to NRT, although I get the connectivity argument. Obviously the USA isn't the only opportunity for them from NGO, but it is what I'm interested in. I think the USA-Japan market could be enormous if there was a ULCC situation in play. You think about how much more Japan has to offer than Iceland which has seen massive air fare price driven growth,

Yes, operating flights beyond Tokyo is quite tough for Malaysian based airlines - so they will probably leave that to a future Airasia X Japan.

However, KIX and NGO looks promising for Airasia X (and maybe Thai Airasia X). Their KUL-KIX-HNL route started as a 4X weekly service but became daily very shortly after that. Once the A339 comes on board, they may wish to consider flying into one of the three cities in the US west coast. (LAX/LAS/SFO)

However, any service needs two way traffic - so pax originating from US will be just as important as pax originating from Japan. ULCC fares may stimulate the market initially but what would be interesting to see is whether it can be sustained.

Hawaii is a different animal in a lot of ways. I just think KIX/NGO to the mainland USA is a much harder sell than NRT. Americans really only know Tokyo as a leisure destination. It would require a lot of work to create demand to KIX and NGO. NRT is potentially the LGW of Japan with some ULCC service in place. KIX and NGO are basically in an even worse spot than MAN in terms of tourism demand. Anything *can* work, it's a matter of how much it will cost and who will pay for that.
 
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zkojq
Posts: 3879
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Re: Updated: Air Asia ordering 12 A330neo and 30 A321xlr instead of previously announced but not confirmed 34 A330neo's

Tue Sep 10, 2019 1:35 pm

Remember how a year ago everyone was talking about how Boeing had played a master stroke and was about to get AAX to cancel their entire A330neo order and replace it with 787-10s?

keesje wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
The 787-8 is much lighter than the A330-800 per square metre of cabin area.

787-8 is 119t at 232m2 = 1.95m2 per ton
A330-800 129t 237m2 = 1.84m2 per ton

7.5% is a massive difference! Airport fees are based on weight which is not good on shorter flights

The 787-8 also burns less fuel per at any given payload than the A330-800. The A330-800 as a very slight range advantage so unless the airline had a route in their network that needed that range it is a poor choice.

Now the A330-900 vs 787-9 is roughly half the percentage weight difference per cabin area. The 787 gain more weight over the shorter family member as it is more than a simple stretch. The A330-900 is still worse than the 787-9 in weight per area and fuel burn per payload but it is close enough that other factors can come into play.

If an airline already operated A330CEO's that now be enough. Also if the airline is willing to accept very poor comfort using 9ab in the A330-900 then the fuel burn per seat can actually reach parity with the 787-9. Combine 9ab with a good aircraft purchase price and an ultra low cost carrier will most likely order the A330-900 over the 787-9.


Makes sense thanks!


That would assume the A330-800 is 9-10t heavier than the A330-200.


I'm sceptical of the numbers. Scandinavian Airlines' new A330-300Es weigh 128t empty. That is with a relatively low density layout with lots of premium seating. I find it hard to believe that the shorter fuselage A330-800 weighs more. I know that the RR T7000 is heavier than the RR T700, but the difference can't be that great.
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