FlyingElvii
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HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:23 am

Hurricane forecast models are still all over the place for this one, and the clock is counting down.
First Domestic Cancellation packages are expected late Saturday into Sunday Morning.

This could affect everything from South Florida to the Northeast in the coming days. Or not.

Mike’s Weather Page
https://www.spaghettimodels.com/
Last edited by FlyingElvii on Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Longhornmaniac
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:25 am

All I know is it's making my commute to MIA tomorrow a lot easier! The last AUS-MIA flight tomorrow went from 16 to 56 seats open in less than 24 hours!
Cheers,
Cameron
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:27 am

Longhornmaniac wrote:
All I know is it's making my commute to MIA tomorrow a lot easier! The last AUS-MIA flight tomorrow went from 16 to 56 seats open in less than 24 hours!


So YOU are the only Miami-based crew that didn’t try to call off tonight?
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:33 am

What about airlines flying their planes to safer ground? B6 the last time ferried planes to SWF.
 
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Super80Fan
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:50 am

Longhornmaniac wrote:
All I know is it's making my commute to MIA tomorrow a lot easier! The last AUS-MIA flight tomorrow went from 16 to 56 seats open in less than 24 hours!


Yeah it's probably hell trying to find a seat out of Florida but going to is wide open.
RIP McDonnell Douglas
RIP US Airways
 
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Super80Fan
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:51 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
What about airlines flying their planes to safer ground? B6 the last time ferried planes to SWF.


I don't know about airlines but Embry Riddle is flying their fleet out tomorrow.
RIP McDonnell Douglas
RIP US Airways
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:12 am

Super80Fan wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
What about airlines flying their planes to safer ground? B6 the last time ferried planes to SWF.


I don't know about airlines but Embry Riddle is flying their fleet out tomorrow.

To Auburn?
 
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Super80Fan
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:22 am

FlyingElvii wrote:
Super80Fan wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
What about airlines flying their planes to safer ground? B6 the last time ferried planes to SWF.


I don't know about airlines but Embry Riddle is flying their fleet out tomorrow.

To Auburn?


Yes!
RIP McDonnell Douglas
RIP US Airways
 
RL757PVD
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:53 am

I was supposed to fly MIA PHL Tuesday afternoon but switched to the first flight out Sunday morning... it’s slowing down so hopefully Sunday is still good. I live 3 ft above sea level (though unit is higher) beachside so I’ll need to get out of dodge.
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:41 am

The northern islands of the Bahamas could see major air service shutdowns sometime on Saturday into Sunday as the storm approaches them. Almost all airports in Florida and airline operators are likely following the weather reports and kicking in evacuation and shutdown plans as almost all could be shut down from this hurricane, especially on Sunday into Monday.
 
n92r03
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:44 am

I read something yesterday that DL added 900+ seats to/from Florida over the next few days. The article did not get into specifics, but I wonder if they added flights or up gauged certain routes.
 
JFKCMILAXFLL
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:28 am

n92r03 wrote:
I read something yesterday that DL added 900+ seats to/from Florida over the next few days. The article did not get into specifics, but I wonder if they added flights or up gauged certain routes.


I don't know about MIA or PBI, but with runway 10L/28R at FLL down for maintenance/repairs until October, I doubt if DL would add any flights (in fact, they may have reduced flying on routes with multiple frequencies such as ATL/LGA/JFk etc., so I would think upgauging). Maybe 763/772/A-330 instead of 752s (and maybe move the 752s to flights currently using 737s). And the one FLL-RDU flight, which was once a Connection CR7 (or CR9) and then became a 717, maybe up to an A-320 or 737. I actually live under one of the approaches to FLL when they are in easterly flow, so the spotting the next couple of days could prove interesting (and may take my mind off what is to come early Tuesday morning (latest forecast says that's when Dorian will make landfall, of course, always subject to change))
 
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N776AU
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:31 am

n92r03 wrote:
I read something yesterday that DL added 900+ seats to/from Florida over the next few days. The article did not get into specifics, but I wonder if they added flights or up gauged certain routes.

Based on flight numbers, it looks like each of the Miami-area airports are getting an additional MD-88/90 flight or two today, although when I try to dummy book, I don't see those flights listed. I know when Irma was coming, they brought in the 747 to do some heavy lifting. Wonder if South Florida will get some widebodies or other cool stuff.
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jayunited
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:47 am

United is planning on adding additional seats and extra sections this weekend but still with the uncertainty of where Dorian will hit they don't know exactly where the extra capacity is needed. Looking at the weather data this hurricane could hit anywhere on the eastern coast of Florida. They are even looking at MCO because right now NASA is moving sensitive equipment from Cape Canaveral (just in case Dorian drifts north), even Jacksonville is preparing. So I would say by Sunday for sure once the forecast is nail down where Dorian is expected will come ashore there will be a lot of upguages and extra sections to get people who want to leave out of harms way.

However right now in my opinion most tourist should be leaving Florida today or tomorrow at the latest, while the residence of Florida continue to prepare and they could then evacuate on Sunday and Monday morning if they decided not to ride out the storm.
 
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SuseJ772
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:58 am

FlyingElvii wrote:
Hurricane forecast models are still all over the place for this one, and the clock is counting down.
First Domestic Cancellation packages are expected late Saturday into Sunday Morning.

This could affect everything from South Florida to the Northeast in the coming days. Or not.

Mike’s Weather Page
https://www.spaghettimodels.com/


I thought I looked at Delta yesterday (brother is suppose to becoming to TPA from LGA) and they already had a cancellation allowance.

Ps Mike’s weather page is the best. My company is the largest provider of Disaster Relief meals in the country for FEMA and I use that site intensely. Unfortunately my airliners.net usage and spafhettimodels.com is inversely related :)
Currently at PIE, requesting FWA >> >>
 
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flymco753
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 12:08 pm

As of now, all flights between now and the time of landfall between MCO & FLL to DTW are oversold. Flights have been removed from booking and/or are labeled sold out. Flights from Florida to most northern cities might also be seeing this trend.
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Danny
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 12:31 pm

First cancellation seems to be Air Force One flight to Poland.
 
Gulfstream500
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 12:56 pm

Well, B6 is currently offering fee waivers in the following places:

- Nassau, Bahamas (NAS)
- Fort Lauderdale, FL (FLL)
- Fort Myers, FL (RSW)
- Jacksonville, FL (JAX)
- Orlando, FL (MCO)
- Palm Beach, FL (PBI)
- Sarasota, FL (SRQ)
- Tampa, FL (TPA)

Currently, Dorian is expected to make landfall (as a cat. four) near Palm Beach FL, however about a quarter of the spaghetti models show a possible impact in SC and NC.
Thinking of a good signature is hard...
 
maps4ltd
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:00 pm

Sounds like a great time for Disney!
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mcogator
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:13 pm

Danny wrote:
First cancellation seems to be Air Force One flight to Poland.

Mar-a-lago needs protection. With the current track it will take a direct hit as a Cat4 storm.
“Traveling – it leaves you speechless, then turns you into a storyteller.” – Ibn Battuta
 
n92r03
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:20 pm

I found the article, DL adds 930 seats between ATL and Florida. Good for them, no mention of equipment or other info for us avgeeks.

https://news.delta.com/update-delta-add ... s-landfall
 
mcogator
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:14 pm

n92r03 wrote:
I found the article, DL adds 930 seats between ATL and Florida. Good for them, no mention of equipment or other info for us avgeeks.

https://news.delta.com/update-delta-add ... s-landfall

I just tried a dummy booking for MCO-ATL tomorrow and Sunday. All flights are on the usual mix of narrow bodies. Saturday is completely sold out in Y, and one flight has F available. Sunday has 2 flights in Y and 3 in F still available.
“Traveling – it leaves you speechless, then turns you into a storyteller.” – Ibn Battuta
 
Gulfstream500
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:16 pm

mcogator wrote:
n92r03 wrote:
I found the article, DL adds 930 seats between ATL and Florida. Good for them, no mention of equipment or other info for us avgeeks.

https://news.delta.com/update-delta-add ... s-landfall

I just tried a dummy booking for MCO-ATL tomorrow and Sunday. All flights are on the usual mix of narrow bodies. Saturday is completely sold out in Y, and one flight has F available. Sunday has 2 flights in Y and 3 in F still available.


I wonder if B6 will allow people to book seats on ferry flights...
Thinking of a good signature is hard...
 
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DL717
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:18 pm

I'm getting popcorn ready for the people who stay behind and their stories if they survive.

Seriously. Get the heck out people.
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mcogator
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:25 pm

Gulfstream500 wrote:
mcogator wrote:
n92r03 wrote:
I found the article, DL adds 930 seats between ATL and Florida. Good for them, no mention of equipment or other info for us avgeeks.

https://news.delta.com/update-delta-add ... s-landfall

I just tried a dummy booking for MCO-ATL tomorrow and Sunday. All flights are on the usual mix of narrow bodies. Saturday is completely sold out in Y, and one flight has F available. Sunday has 2 flights in Y and 3 in F still available.


I wonder if B6 will allow people to book seats on ferry flights...

Not sure, but looked on Kayak and MCO-LAX for Saturday/Wednesday was under $300 rt on B6.
“Traveling – it leaves you speechless, then turns you into a storyteller.” – Ibn Battuta
 
jcwr56
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:03 pm

mcogator wrote:
Danny wrote:
First cancellation seems to be Air Force One flight to Poland.

Mar-a-lago needs protection. With the current track it will take a direct hit as a Cat4 storm.



Or a great opportunity to test the nuke theory he suggested.

I’m aware Spirit was looking to ship planes up to ORD but nothing official yet. Frontier will have 4-5 I believe.
 
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readytotaxi
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:35 pm

If it hits the Orlando area then "Splash Mountain" will be a walk in the park.
you don't get a second chance to make a first impression!
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FlyingElvii
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 6:19 pm

Gulfstream500 wrote:
mcogator wrote:
n92r03 wrote:
I found the article, DL adds 930 seats between ATL and Florida. Good for them, no mention of equipment or other info for us avgeeks.

https://news.delta.com/update-delta-add ... s-landfall

I just tried a dummy booking for MCO-ATL tomorrow and Sunday. All flights are on the usual mix of narrow bodies. Saturday is completely sold out in Y, and one flight has F available. Sunday has 2 flights in Y and 3 in F still available.


I wonder if B6 will allow people to book seats on ferry flights...

In my experience, outbound ferries are usually reserved for staff and families that want to get out.
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 6:28 pm

jcwr56 wrote:
mcogator wrote:
Danny wrote:
First cancellation seems to be Air Force One flight to Poland.

Mar-a-lago needs protection. With the current track it will take a direct hit as a Cat4 storm.



Or a great opportunity to test the nuke theory he suggested.

I’m aware Spirit was looking to ship planes up to ORD but nothing official yet. Frontier will have 4-5 I believe.


Has Spirit opened the EOC in Detroit yet?

Side Note: As a theory, the idea of nuking Hurricanes has been around since Flora, in the Mid-50’s. It was seriously researched in the aftermath of Hurricane Camille, and Jimmy Carter again floated the idea in the late 70’s.
 
HeeseokKoo
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:27 pm

Looks like B6 offers free cancellation whereas all other airlines offer free change only. Free cancellation is a much better option when people paid extra $$ for the labor day weekend.

Edit: AS, too.
 
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usxguy
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 8:53 pm

maps4ltd wrote:
Sounds like a great time for Disney!


What's interesting is how few times in history they have actually closed.

I think they stayed open for Jeanne, Francis, and Irma.
xx
 
flyiguy
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:01 pm

GOAA has announced MCO will be closing at 0200 on Monday morning.

FLY
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RobertS975
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:08 pm

usxguy wrote:
maps4ltd wrote:
Sounds like a great time for Disney!


What's interesting is how few times in history they have actually closed.

I think they stayed open for Jeanne, Francis, and Irma.



Disney definitely closed for Irma. Please check your facts.
 
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usdcaguy
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:18 pm

flyiguy wrote:
GOAA has announced MCO will be closing at 0200 on Monday morning.

FLY


You know analysts at Disney will be crunching numbers to size all the lost revenue from people leaving early.
 
N649DL
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:38 pm

n92r03 wrote:
I read something yesterday that DL added 900+ seats to/from Florida over the next few days. The article did not get into specifics, but I wonder if they added flights or up gauged certain routes.


DL has been known to do this before hurricanes occur. My family and I got on the last upgraded flight (with 7700 or 9900 flight number code) on NAS-ATL with only a handful of passengers onboard an ex-NW 757 in 2011 before Hurricane Irene hit. The plane was so lightly loaded the F/A's moved my Sister, Mom, and myself up to First Class. Seeing the storm clouds roll in while we were climbing was incredible to look at.
 
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flymco753
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:41 pm

Disney closed early for Matthew.
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mcogator
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:42 pm

Only 17/51 euro models have it making landfall in Florida now. The previous update was 31/51. I hope the trend continues.
“Traveling – it leaves you speechless, then turns you into a storyteller.” – Ibn Battuta
 
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SDUMIA
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:03 pm

Flying from GIG to MIA tonight on AA. My ticket originally was for Sept 2nd but I decided to head back home for my hurricane party. Was able to change my ticket quickly and no fee charged.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:10 pm

mcogator wrote:
Only 17/51 euro models have it making landfall in Florida now. The previous update was 31/51. I hope the trend continues.


Where do you want it to landfall? That’s not what the NHC is predicting—landfall between Vero and Palm Beach.

GF
 
tcfc424
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:04 pm

Galaxy, I believe what they meant was that a good number of the so-called "spaghetti models" had shifted their predictions over the last run, indicating that the storm could stay out to sea, with the possibility of it not making a landfall on the mainland US. The NHC uses all of those models to formulate their official forecast, which has edged notably eastward, mainly hugging the east coast of Florida.
 
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T18
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:08 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
mcogator wrote:
Only 17/51 euro models have it making landfall in Florida now. The previous update was 31/51. I hope the trend continues.


Where do you want it to landfall?

GF


I think we would all prefer the unlikely case that it does not make a landfall at all and turns out to sea generating plenty of rain and rough surf but little more. A few models are suggesting that, as well as that being with in the NHC forecast cone as well. However what I'm seeing make me think this thing will make multiple landfalls from Vero Beach to Brunswick riding the coast wobbling off and on shore, but that's just my best guess from my very limited meteorology education, the 5pm model and NHC forecast update.
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mcogator
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:16 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
mcogator wrote:
Only 17/51 euro models have it making landfall in Florida now. The previous update was 31/51. I hope the trend continues.


Where do you want it to landfall? That’s not what the NHC is predicting—landfall between Vero and Palm Beach.

GF

I don't want it to make a landfall, but for obvious reasons if it does make landfall, not anywhere near central Florida.
“Traveling – it leaves you speechless, then turns you into a storyteller.” – Ibn Battuta
 
Longhornmaniac
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:21 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
Longhornmaniac wrote:
All I know is it's making my commute to MIA tomorrow a lot easier! The last AUS-MIA flight tomorrow went from 16 to 56 seats open in less than 24 hours!


So YOU are the only Miami-based crew that didn’t try to call off tonight?


Hahaha! Not MIA-based! This was an easy money trip for me, so I had to do it! Just happened to begin with a DH to MIA.
Cheers,
Cameron
 
DeltaRules
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:59 pm

DAB closes to commercial operations following the final departure Sunday.
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MCOflyer
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Sat Aug 31, 2019 12:02 am

I live in central Florida and am opting to stay with my family. Whats G4 doing with their fleet??
Never be afraid to stand up for who you are.
 
Boston757
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Sat Aug 31, 2019 12:03 am

So, it’s being insinuated that that approximately 4,000 Miami based flight Attendants for AA are calling in Sick. Oh, please. Miami based flight crews work more hours than most AA basses.
 
F9LASDEN
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Sat Aug 31, 2019 12:05 am

MCO tentatively plans to cease operations at 2am EDT on Monday, September 2.

https://orlandoairports.net/press/2019/ ... ne-dorian/
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Gulfstream500
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Sat Aug 31, 2019 12:49 am

mcogator wrote:
Only 17/51 euro models have it making landfall in Florida now. The previous update was 31/51. I hope the trend continues.


Where was this found? Where are the other landfall predictions?
Thinking of a good signature is hard...
 
mcogator
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Sat Aug 31, 2019 12:57 am

Gulfstream500 wrote:
mcogator wrote:
Only 17/51 euro models have it making landfall in Florida now. The previous update was 31/51. I hope the trend continues.


Where was this found? Where are the other landfall predictions?

Here is a link with the map. Varies from SC to no landfall.

https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/1 ... 95840?s=19
“Traveling – it leaves you speechless, then turns you into a storyteller.” – Ibn Battuta
 
Cadet985
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Re: HURRICANE DORIAN Cancellations, Deviations, and Aftereffects Thread

Sat Aug 31, 2019 1:23 am

I realize this is an aviation forum, but if we’re talking cancellations and closures, I passed through the train station in Trenton, NJ this afternoon, and trains to Florida were only running as far south as Jacksonville. They may have to curtail the trains even more.

Marc

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Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos