THS214
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Mon Sep 02, 2019 6:00 pm

lightsaber wrote:
THS214 wrote:
then I agree with you. If DWC would have been built in time as planned, things would be different. Major part of competitors were able to expand because Emirates was not. You expect move to smaller aircraft. If DWC would be what it was supposed, Emirates would be flying also smaller planes, maybe even narrow bodies (excluding Flydubai).
.

Yes, competition took advantage of EK/FZ being unable to expand. Businesses with good growth potential and a constrained competitor will expand fast.

I expect a move to smaller aircraft as connecting yield is poor. We have another thread going on ET doubling connections to China. That is just one more example of diluting yield.

Direct flights always have more yield. While tourism has ceased the crazy growth, it is at a good baseline. EK must shrink to generate profits that sustain the city state.

Lightsaber


Agree with you. While EK is still profitable, they need to shrink with smaller planes to survive. Their fleet planning also shows that. I see some A380s replaced by 777X and some 77Ws by A350/330NEOs. Not only smaller planes but also lower fuel burn, maintenance etc compared to payload. What is not discussed is their order for 777-8. A can't see a role for those planes. They are built for ultra long flights and those flights are really expensive to operate. So if the yield is not there why bother? A350(ULR) can do those flights where it makes sense. Those ultra long flights are an Achilles heel for ME3.

Also Flydubai. They have not space to expand with all their ordered planes. Maybe they have a plan outside DXB/DWC. With DXB/DWC as planned, good idea. Now a terrible situation with MAX problems and over-order. Maybe EK is planning to shrink plane size so much that FZ order makes sense? I have no clue just thinking out loud.
 
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Mon Sep 02, 2019 6:28 pm

I wasn't clear in my last post. Reducing capacity about 10% would barely effect O&D. The only tourism that will be lost is any cut routes, which I expect to be few.

All the bypass, by inspection, will be reducing yield. QF is intentionally trying to put premium passengers outside the EK/QF Joint ventures, which is wise. The Chinese airlines won't ever play fair. The EU3 must redo their India/Southeast Asia strategy. Everything points to a mid-term need to retreat.

Revelation wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
A bubble is a recession due to a sudden contraction in one or more industries due to over-expansion. Right now Dubai/EK/DXB has a minor bubble. Denial is just going to make it a major one.

Traffic will need to be reduced 10% to allow for growth. C'est la vie.

Your post made me think of what the Bloomberg article ( https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... on-dirhams ) said:

While all airline earnings are affected by the price of crude, the Persian Gulf giant is particularly sensitive to fluctuations. Too high, and rising fuel costs become difficult to manage, too low and demand for travel falls in the region’s oil-based economies. The carrier said last week that the sweet spot is between $50 to $60 a barrel, compared with the current level of about $70.

“Our performance was not as strong as we would have liked,” Emirates Chairman Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum said in the release. “Higher oil prices and the strengthened U.S. dollar eroded our earnings, even as competition intensified in our key markets.”

So, while Dubai is not a great oil producing nation, its airline is "particularly sensitive" to fluctuations in the price of crude, along with increasing strength of the US dollar. The airline itself is telling us of the sweet spot in the price of crude oil that maximizes its profits.

A lot of things seem to be working against EK these days, but at least they are still profitable, and still have the opportunity to right-size the airline along the lines of the five and ten year projections mentioned in the STC quotes given earlier.

Excellent data.

Please note that I am not doom an gloom on Dubai/EK/,DXB. They either embrace a minor recession or doom themselves.

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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Mon Sep 02, 2019 6:30 pm

THS214 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
THS214 wrote:
then I agree with you. If DWC would have been built in time as planned, things would be different. Major part of competitors were able to expand because Emirates was not. You expect move to smaller aircraft. If DWC would be what it was supposed, Emirates would be flying also smaller planes, maybe even narrow bodies (excluding Flydubai).
.

Yes, competition took advantage of EK/FZ being unable to expand. Businesses with good growth potential and a constrained competitor will expand fast.

I expect a move to smaller aircraft as connecting yield is poor. We have another thread going on ET doubling connections to China. That is just one more example of diluting yield.

Direct flights always have more yield. While tourism has ceased the crazy growth, it is at a good baseline. EK must shrink to generate profits that sustain the city state.

Lightsaber


Agree with you. While EK is still profitable, they need to shrink with smaller planes to survive. Their fleet planning also shows that. I see some A380s replaced by 777X and some 77Ws by A350/330NEOs. Not only smaller planes but also lower fuel burn, maintenance etc compared to payload. What is not discussed is their order for 777-8. A can't see a role for those planes. They are built for ultra long flights and those flights are really expensive to operate. So if the yield is not there why bother? A350(ULR) can do those flights where it makes sense. Those ultra long flights are an Achilles heel for ME3.

Also Flydubai. They have not space to expand with all their ordered planes. Maybe they have a plan outside DXB/DWC. With DXB/DWC as planned, good idea. Now a terrible situation with MAX problems and over-order. Maybe EK is planning to shrink plane size so much that FZ order makes sense? I have no clue just thinking out loud.

There isn't room at DXB for FlyDubai fully. They will have to postpone deliveries.

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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Mon Sep 02, 2019 6:35 pm

Does anyone have any statistics on the number of passengers per year since DWC airport opened?
 
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Mon Sep 02, 2019 6:53 pm

sergegva wrote:
Does anyone have any statistics on the number of passengers per year since DWC airport opened?

1H2019 up quite a but to 1.2 million pax, due to runway closure at DXB. That is normally the annual total,

https://www.internationalairportreview. ... -per-cent/

DXB fluctuates by more than DWC carries.

Splitting cargo within truck range is almost working.

Split hubs always hurt yield in passengers and cargo.

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marcogr12
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Mon Sep 02, 2019 7:17 pm

EK/FZ need smaller short-haul planes (and WB planes) that can deliver higher LF at more economic fuel burn..QR and EY already have A320s in the 130-150 category..The A220-300 would be an excellent such plane to expand profitably its network..Air Baltic flies the plane on a 7h flight RIX-AUH in a 145-seat config..Yes, i know EK has got FZ for that role but FZ is a hybrid airline..It started supposedly as an LCC but its prices are anything but ..And now it offers a biz-class at crazy prices while its economy product is more LCC on fully economy flex prices..Meanwhile other real LCCs keep expanding in Dubailand (either DXB or DWC) and with the Neos and 321XLR there's gonna be more competition on the EK/FZ front..Meanwhile the gap between the 738s and EKs 777-300 is enormous..They need sth on the 220-300 category which hopefully the 787s /A339neos will offer them..When are they supposed to start receiving them?
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Mon Sep 02, 2019 7:46 pm

lightsaber wrote:
sergegva wrote:
Does anyone have any statistics on the number of passengers per year since DWC airport opened?

1H2019 up quite a but to 1.2 million pax, due to runway closure at DXB. That is normally the annual total,

https://www.internationalairportreview. ... -per-cent/

DXB fluctuates by more than DWC carries.

Splitting cargo within truck range is almost working.

Split hubs always hurt yield in passengers and cargo.

Lightsaber


Thanks. They are still VERY far from the current maximum "modest" capacity of 26.5 million! According to this page, pax number even decreased in 2018 compared to 2017.
 
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Mon Sep 02, 2019 10:08 pm

marcogr12 wrote:
EK/FZ need smaller short-haul planes (and WB planes) that can deliver higher LF at more economic fuel burn..QR and EY already have A320s in the 130-150 category..The A220-300 would be an excellent such plane to expand profitably its network..Air Baltic flies the plane on a 7h flight RIX-AUH in a 145-seat config..Yes, i know EK has got FZ for that role but FZ is a hybrid airline..It started supposedly as an LCC but its prices are anything but ..And now it offers a biz-class at crazy prices while its economy product is more LCC on fully economy flex prices..Meanwhile other real LCCs keep expanding in Dubailand (either DXB or DWC) and with the Neos and 321XLR there's gonna be more competition on the EK/FZ front..Meanwhile the gap between the 738s and EKs 777-300 is enormous..They need sth on the 220-300 category which hopefully the 787s /A339neos will offer them..When are they supposed to start receiving them?


The first A330NEO is set to arrive by late 2020
 
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Mon Sep 02, 2019 10:40 pm

sergegva wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
sergegva wrote:
Does anyone have any statistics on the number of passengers per year since DWC airport opened?

1H2019 up quite a but to 1.2 million pax, due to runway closure at DXB. That is normally the annual total,

https://www.internationalairportreview. ... -per-cent/

DXB fluctuates by more than DWC carries.

Splitting cargo within truck range is almost working.

Split hubs always hurt yield in passengers and cargo.

Lightsaber


Thanks. They are still VERY far from the current maximum "modest" capacity of 26.5 million! According to this page, pax number even decreased in 2018 compared to 2017.

Yes. Normally about a million passengers per year for 2027/2018. When num Are so low. A single 738 flight has 137,970 seats (assumes high density) there and back. So a capacity that could be met by a handful of 737s (or other narrowbody aircraft) stationed at DWC is... noise.

DWC is overbuilt. Because it is an O&D airport and DXB needs higher fares, wake me up hen Dubai's total O&D grows by 50 million pax/year. I currently estimate the total O&D passenger traffic at Dubai is 25 to 30 million passengers per year.

So 1st part of this bubble is DWC just isn't needed for a decade or two. If Dubai could have built it out and those meddling kids at IST and ADD hadn't intervened and Qatar had just accepted its fate and rolled over during the embargo, we could have a different discussion.

This is why I think DXB reducing connecting traffic by 8+ million pax per year is not a big deal. It might not be enough. But only by focusing on yield will EK/FZ thrive.

Sadly, the more I go through this thread, the more I realize that DWC is basically doomed to the sub 2 million pax year market for a while.

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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:36 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Sadly, the more I go through this thread, the more I realize that DWC is basically doomed to the sub 2 million pax year market for a while.

My opinion too.
When I joined, I wanted a superconnector avatar, thought of calling myself IST, but then I didn't like neither the Atatürk airport nor the fact that the last pristine forest of the Bophorous had been felled for their new mighty morphin power IST.
Come to think of it, there is no particular airport I like. Perhaps PHX for its skytrain ;)
 
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Tue Sep 03, 2019 12:46 am

DWC wrote:
hz747300 wrote:
I'm sorry, but US$631m on US$29.8b is not 'very profitable'. ~US$30b is impressive, but it's not translating into substantial profits. It's ok, few airlines do make great profits.

The problem with narrow thinking & corporate finance is that one misses the big picture, very unsophisticated.
The EK group, other than have sprung out of nothing in 33 years is a success story in itself. I don't have the figures, but 631m is way more than most airlines make. Dnata in itself is grabbing market share in Europe (Zurich amongst others)

As to the big picture : profit is only one aspect, and not much when you factor in it is after tens of thousands of salaries & investments made locally, all of which contribute to local purchasing power. You must bear in mind that billions of that turnover are actually added value to the economy. Add all the other billions PAX leave in Dubai in hotels, shoppings, banks, services, tourism.

EK & Dubai are a success story by various metrics. EK is a prime example of a successful SOE into a market economy. If you knew about economic regressions, you'd see how EK is robustly correlated to Dubai's growth in the past 33 years. EK is a fascinating example of how a microenomics model ( a corporation ) actually feeds & develops the overall macroeconomic model of a country. There are other examples in the past, more complex, like the Chaebols in SKorea. The point is you cannot look at the EK group as you would the EU3, US3 or CN3, LA, TK or QR even, the EK group are part of a much greater master plan. EK is about macroeconomy, not about shareholders, though ultimately EK have made the Emirati very rich, and not just them.

Yet I am far less impressed by the labour conditions of all the exploited Asians in Dubai. The West does not care as it does pretty much the same, delocalizing production or services to countries like China, India, Bangladesh, not to mention the tens of millions living below poverty line, specially in the US. Last, there are more intelligent ways to develop a society, Dubai's is very basic, essentially commercial & dull, talking of walking past one's life. But then you need to know about anthropology, sociology, psychology, all of which are beyond the grasp of the general public & of many decision makers, alas.


Not sure how UAE labour exploitation is a US problem, in fact, as it relates to airlines I would suggest it's quite the opposite. Either way, 2% is not very profitable--even in an industry not well known for its profits. I get that as a group it has its hands in many pots, but I think the 2% net profit of a money no object company is very similar mindset to how you design an airport bigger than the island of Bermuda then quietly withdraw the project midway through it. The problems are related in mindset. It's a shame, I was looking forward to the DWC transfer, the concept looked amazing. It would still work in part if they built a high speed rail between the two airports to allow transfers. It'd be really cool, it if it could be a 'secure airport to airport transfer' ie, post security on both sides.
Keep on truckin'...
 
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Tue Sep 03, 2019 2:12 am

Always boggles my mind that the sheikhs of Abu Dhabi and Dubai can't cooperate on this. It's clear that a merged EK and EY, based at a DWC, connected to Dubai and Abu Dhabi by high speed rail, is in the long term interest of both. With AUH and DXB either reserved for regional carriers entirely or downsized and redeveloped in part.

If they can't get around to this, EK and EY will slowly drip away traffic to TK and the European, Indian and Chinese carriers.
 
moa999
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Tue Sep 03, 2019 2:48 am

Why would EY do it?

They've got a midfield extension that opens spoon and plenty of land for further expansion and runways at AUH.
 
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Tue Sep 03, 2019 11:25 am

DWC wrote:
Anyway, back to your question, the Emirati will keep spending because they have nothing else to keep creating "value" from, it's that "bicycle theory" for shallow development : "keep cycling or fall".

I think the interesting / ironic thing is that people will look back at EK over the last decade or so (they only got their first A380 in July 2008!) and conclude they didn't pedal fast enough.

DWC was originally planned to be finished next year ( ref: https://www.airport-technology.com/projects/al-maktoum/ ) now it's stalled till past 2030 and as you say represents a huge sunk cost.

DWC may very well end up like Mirabel, originally planned to be Montreal's main airport, but instead ending up as a nice place for some cargo and charter ops and a few aviation centered businesses, victim of changes in the aviation landscape.
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Tue Sep 03, 2019 2:25 pm

TObound wrote:
Always boggles my mind that the sheikhs of Abu Dhabi and Dubai can't cooperate on this. It's clear that a merged EK and EY, based at a DWC, connected to Dubai and Abu Dhabi by high speed rail, is in the long term interest of both. With AUH and DXB either reserved for regional carriers entirely or downsized and redeveloped in part. If they can't get around to this, EK and EY will slowly drip away traffic to TK and the European, Indian and Chinese carriers.

The Sheiks are no fools & know what they are doing.
It's not because their strategies do not fit that of avgeeks' that they are wrong.
Yes, they make mistakes, some big like the major blunders in other countries but, all in all, the UAE is an economic miracle to be added to Asia's 4 Tigers. Other than these 5, I can't think of no other lightning development elsewhere in the world, aside of China of course, so that's 6.

Also, you must not take the UAE as a homogeneous country. It is a federation of sheikdoms, just look at how the EU countries pull the cover to their national interests & you'll see the UAE is no different. Fact is Abu Dhabi does not need Dubai, it can stand alone. So can Dubai if there are no glitches. So to each their own.

As to the ME3's future, they have an ideal geographic position, but they have unduly stolen traffic relative to their O/D. While legal, it is politically & economically unstable ; the moment the CN3, TK, plus the Asian & European majors catch up with the ME3 with more efficient WBs & on board service, they will grow market share over Eurasian traffic. Because traffic is doubling every 15 years, the ME3 will probably keep their current pax numbers, perhaps even grow a bit, but will loose market share. Seems to me the Gulf is still the best route for the Kangaroo route, at least for low yield pax. SQ & QF will keep skimming the premium market, how much will depend in part both on Project sunrise & on how the CN3 develop the "canton route" & the "Shanghai route". I for one would rather have a long layover at these cities than in boring artificial Dubai, which I mean can be fun, but much less than truly folkloric cultural cities.

One should also be aware that were it not for the US sanctions that stunted Iran's economy just as the US embargoed Cuba, Iran has the population & the touristic appeal to become THE natural superconnector in the region. That is not happening soon & Iran has as of now a connecting profile smaller than Bahrain's. But India has all the potential to develop if they get their things right, not happening soon either. It is mind boggling that EK have virtually become India's de facto international airline, while the likes of Jet Airways bite the dust. The Tata Group had every reason to enter the airline business again, this time pairing with SQ to ensure good management.

So this leaves us with Turkey, which has a similar natural role to play like Iran. Well, guess what, they know it & are building it. What is more, they are even better placed than the ME3 to connect to Europe & Africa, no backtracking, plus all of the CIS where the population is concentrated : 80% of Russians live west of the Urals, Moscow is actually directly north of Ankara. If the Ural's line were prolonged south, then Turkey could be considered part of Europe. IST is a close copycat of what DWC intended to be, both of which slighted at the size of ATL minimum. DWC's future looks bleak. IST on the other hand are playing their cards well. It's a pity that Turkey for that decided to ruin precious natural space in that narrow peninsula. Any place between Izmir, Ankara or the Marmara Sea would have done the same, except for the very unconvenient fact it would be far from touristic Istanbul, but for a superconnector & for transfer passengers, that makes no difference.
 
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Tue Sep 03, 2019 3:01 pm

Asian Tiger have real growths and not growths financed by oil and gas.
 
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Tue Sep 03, 2019 3:39 pm

seahawk wrote:
Asian Tiger have real growths and not growths financed by oil and gas.

Did you read the whole thread ?
Dubai's current growth is not financed by oil or gas, I repeat, is NOT financed by carbs.
Do not confuse Dubai with Abu Dhabi or Qatar.

Now, if you meant that EK has to finance kerozene & the gas they leave behind, well, yeah...
They pay for it. No taxes do help. But then all airlines could fly to DWC & buy fuel : not sure it comes in cheaper...
So I feel confident I can lump Dubai ( and most emirates but Abu Dhabi ) with the Asian Tigers ;)
 
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Tue Sep 03, 2019 4:13 pm

DWC wrote:
TObound wrote:
Always boggles my mind that the sheikhs of Abu Dhabi and Dubai can't cooperate on this. It's clear that a merged EK and EY, based at a DWC, connected to Dubai and Abu Dhabi by high speed rail, is in the long term interest of both. With AUH and DXB either reserved for regional carriers entirely or downsized and redeveloped in part. If they can't get around to this, EK and EY will slowly drip away traffic to TK and the European, Indian and Chinese carriers.

The Sheiks are no fools & know what they are doing.
It's not because their strategies do not fit that of avgeeks' that they are wrong.
Yes, they make mistakes, some big like the major blunders in other countries but, all in all, the UAE is an economic miracle to be added to Asia's 4 Tigers. Other than these 5, I can't think of no other lightning development elsewhere in the world, aside of China of course, so that's 6.

Also, you must not take the UAE as a homogeneous country. It is a federation of sheikdoms, just look at how the EU countries pull the cover to their national interests & you'll see the UAE is no different. Fact is Abu Dhabi does not need Dubai, it can stand alone. So can Dubai if there are no glitches. So to each their own.

As to the ME3's future, they have an ideal geographic position, but they have unduly stolen traffic relative to their O/D. While legal, it is politically & economically unstable ; the moment the CN3, TK, plus the Asian & European majors catch up with the ME3 with more efficient WBs & on board service, they will grow market share over Eurasian traffic. Because traffic is doubling every 15 years, the ME3 will probably keep their current pax numbers, perhaps even grow a bit, but will loose market share. Seems to me the Gulf is still the best route for the Kangaroo route, at least for low yield pax. SQ & QF will keep skimming the premium market, how much will depend in part both on Project sunrise & on how the CN3 develop the "canton route" & the "Shanghai route". I for one would rather have a long layover at these cities than in boring artificial Dubai, which I mean can be fun, but much less than truly folkloric cultural cities.

One should also be aware that were it not for the US sanctions that stunted Iran's economy just as the US embargoed Cuba, Iran has the population & the touristic appeal to become THE natural superconnector in the region. That is not happening soon & Iran has as of now a connecting profile smaller than Bahrain's. But India has all the potential to develop if they get their things right, not happening soon either. It is mind boggling that EK have virtually become India's de facto international airline, while the likes of Jet Airways bite the dust. The Tata Group had every reason to enter the airline business again, this time pairing with SQ to ensure good management.

So this leaves us with Turkey, which has a similar natural role to play like Iran. Well, guess what, they know it & are building it. What is more, they are even better placed than the ME3 to connect to Europe & Africa, no backtracking, plus all of the CIS where the population is concentrated : 80% of Russians live west of the Urals, Moscow is actually directly north of Ankara. If the Ural's line were prolonged south, then Turkey could be considered part of Europe. IST is a close copycat of what DWC intended to be, both of which slighted at the size of ATL minimum. DWC's future looks bleak. IST on the other hand are playing their cards well. It's a pity that Turkey for that decided to ruin precious natural space in that narrow peninsula. Any place between Izmir, Ankara or the Marmara Sea would have done the same, except for the very unconvenient fact it would be far from touristic Istanbul, but for a superconnector & for transfer passengers, that makes no difference.


Spent most of my pre-teen childhood there. Still have family there. Well aware of the issues they have.

Let's be clear. Dubai only exists because India is a mess. Even as the Gulf's pre-eminent city, it'd be much smaller if Indian cities like Mumbai or Pakistani cities like Karachi were more functional. Despite more of the West trading directly with India, we're a long ways off from Mumbai going toe-to-toe as a trade hub. So for a while their status as an Alpha+ city is safe.

When it comes to the topic at hand, I absolutely believe the sheikhs are letting their egos get ahead of them here. I also think they are vastly underestimating how much the West (at minimum) is motivated to get off oil and to address the concerns of climate change. And how far along the tech to disrupt oil and gas is. This article over the weekend gives an idea of the threat they face:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikescott/ ... -numbered/

So while DXB itself may not be dependent on oil, the regional economy absolutely is. And not planning for a longterm downturn in oil would be very irresponsible.

So in light of slower growth, and possibly even some shrinking traffic, it actually makes no sense to have two separate airlines and two separate airports. DWC connected to Abu Dhabi, Dubai and eventually most of the UAE by high speed rail makes a ton of sense. A combined EK/EY could cut capacity to boost yield. Heck, I could see FZ being folded back in. DWC itself could be built with pre-clearance built in for the EU/Schengen and US. And an airport larger than DXB would allow them to better balance capacity and frequencies. Concentrating aviation at single airport city, would then let them dramatically shrink or even close AUD and DXB, freeing up land for development which could in turn pay for a lot of DWC's development. But of course, all of this requires the ruling families of Abu Dhabi and Dubai to be on the same page and to understand that cooperation is worth more than competition.
 
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Tue Sep 03, 2019 4:30 pm

DWC wrote:
As to the ME3's future, they have an ideal geographic position, but they have unduly stolen traffic relative to their O/D. While legal, it is politically & economically unstable ; the moment the CN3, TK, plus the Asian & European majors catch up with the ME3 with more efficient WBs & on board service, they will grow market share over Eurasian traffic.

I feel you should have called out one more thing, namely:

TObound wrote:
Let's be clear. Dubai only exists because India is a mess. Even as the Gulf's pre-eminent city, it'd be much smaller if Indian cities like Mumbai or Pakistani cities like Karachi were more functional. Despite more of the West trading directly with India, we're a long ways off from Mumbai going toe-to-toe as a trade hub. So for a while their status as an Alpha+ city is safe.

:checkmark:

Unfortunately IN and/or PK show no signs of getting their aviation sector squared away any time soon.

It'd be interesting to see academic presentations on how much this costs those countries and benefits Dubai.
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Tue Sep 03, 2019 5:33 pm

Revelation wrote:
DWC wrote:
As to the ME3's future, they have an ideal geographic position, but they have unduly stolen traffic relative to their O/D. While legal, it is politically & economically unstable ; the moment the CN3, TK, plus the Asian & European majors catch up with the ME3 with more efficient WBs & on board service, they will grow market share over Eurasian traffic.

I feel you should have called out one more thing, namely:

TObound wrote:
Let's be clear. Dubai only exists because India is a mess. Even as the Gulf's pre-eminent city, it'd be much smaller if Indian cities like Mumbai or Pakistani cities like Karachi were more functional. Despite more of the West trading directly with India, we're a long ways off from Mumbai going toe-to-toe as a trade hub. So for a while their status as an Alpha+ city is safe.

:checkmark:

Unfortunately IN and/or PK show no signs of getting their aviation sector squared away any time soon.

It'd be interesting to see academic presentations on how much this costs those countries and benefits Dubai.

India and Pakistan definitely forfeited so much travel to DXB.

Imagine a world without the 30% fuel tax and nicer facilities at BOM or DEL. QF would have partnered with an Indian airline instead of EK. Yes, I assume more EU connections, but that would have been very likely.

We could play scenario after scenario where the incompetence of India and Pakistan drove traffic to the ME3.

If Navi Mumbai had been built earlier with a rapid plan to 4+ runways, no fuel tax, excellent terminals, and world class ground transportation, we could talk about rightful traffic.

But most of the region forfeited. EK was nothing and became something by becoming a low cost, unprotected, wayport. Some is because Dubai realized female customers were influencing what airline acquired FF miles and made their airport and city more female friendly: women can rent cars, go unescorted, go to the beach, rent a hotel, go shopping, and go to the beach.

Some us realizing road warriors drink like fish and accommodating.

Some is easy international to international connections, better than India International to domestic.

There is no credit for not seeding international flights with great connections which includes international to international.

The GoI and Pakistan need to stop fighting their cousins off perceived slights and just do business like Dubai.

That said, there is more competition and connection yield has dropped due to more direct flights and other emerging hubs (IST, ADD).

Airlines plan direct flights to maximize profit. So one can assume at near the highest total yield. EK did well, but now DOH, AUH, IST, and ADD hurt the profits.

When Indigo or SpiceJet buy aircraft for direct flights to the EU, everything will fall apart for EK. Now only if the tax,es, regulatory framework, and infrastructure allowed India to be the EU to Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore hub. Also from SE Asia/Osceana to Africa.If that is done, China to Africa will (partially) follow.

Forfeiting a great business case is just silly. But India is unusually capable of ignoring job opportunities in aviation.

Lightsaber
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zeke
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Tue Sep 03, 2019 6:07 pm

lightsaber wrote:
India and Pakistan definitely forfeited so much travel to DXB.


Your post is devoid of a simple fact in that a large number expats from the subcontinent work in the UAE. Working in the UAE as an expat is seen as a status symbol for them. Many people from the subcontinent stop over in the UAE to meet up with “successful” family members, and for the shopping opportunities it presents without the 30% tax found in the subcontinent.
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seahawk
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Tue Sep 03, 2019 6:23 pm

DWC wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Asian Tiger have real growths and not growths financed by oil and gas.

Did you read the whole thread ?
Dubai's current growth is not financed by oil or gas, I repeat, is NOT financed by carbs.
Do not confuse Dubai with Abu Dhabi or Qatar.

Now, if you meant that EK has to finance kerozene & the gas they leave behind, well, yeah...
They pay for it. No taxes do help. But then all airlines could fly to DWC & buy fuel : not sure it comes in cheaper...
So I feel confident I can lump Dubai ( and most emirates but Abu Dhabi ) with the Asian Tigers ;)


I kind of agree and disagree, as without the money from oil and gas neither they would not have the infrastructure nor the spending power that fuels the current growth. Add the reliance on cheap imported labour for many tasks and it is imho not comparable to the Asian Tigers.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Tue Sep 03, 2019 6:56 pm

zeke wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
India and Pakistan definitely forfeited so much travel to DXB.


Your post is devoid of a simple fact in that a large number expats from the subcontinent work in the UAE. Working in the UAE as an expat is seen as a status symbol for them. Many people from the subcontinent stop over in the UAE to meet up with “successful” family members, and for the shopping opportunities it presents without the 30% tax found in the subcontinent.

Yes, there is that set of facts.

But I believe India (BOM or DEL) should have been a natural International to International. In particular Osceana and SE Asia to EU and Africa.

But we get to alternative universe discussions. I believe Dubai is putting the breaks on for expansion anyways. Not just DWC, but the property developers too.

There will be jobs and tourism. I believe India missed one hell of an opportunity as Dubai's growth shows.

Either way, I see Dubai having to pull back to survive a
mild recession. If India grows their EU presence, slowing Dubai's recovery.

Thanks,
Neil
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TObound
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Tue Sep 03, 2019 8:46 pm

Let's be clear. When I talk about India and Pakistan being a mess. It's not just about aviation. Dubai has created a large industrial complex that provides a level of sustainment for EK. Replicating that in Mumbai or Karachi, would require those cities to actually develop into something approaching functional cities. As long as Dubai remains the hub for Westerners doing business in South Asia, EK will do decently enough. Dubai is the place Arab, Indian and Pakistani businessmen go to talk to Europeans. A situation not unlike Singapore as the hub for business in Southeast Asia. And a situation that's not likely to change soon, but could get diminished over time, as direct travel becomes easier and Europeans get more comfortable doing business in India itself.

EK and EY have to prepare for the day where more Indians and Europeans bypass DXB and AUD. And in that kind of a situation, I don't see how two airports 120 km apart with competing carriers helps them. Worse, QR is also willing to blow cash trying to stay in the game. They need DWC as the mega-airport that will allow them to merge EK, EY and FZ. And they really, really need high speed rail that connects Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah and Ajman at a minimum. That's the sensible strategy for the coastal region that has 90% of the UAE's population. It would give them the catchment to take on QR at DOH and somewhat TK at IST. QR, in particular, would have a tough time competing with a single carrier that had a catchment of ~8 million. That's 3x what DOH has in its vicinity. And about half of what IST has.
 
TObound
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:10 pm

lightsaber wrote:
zeke wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
India and Pakistan definitely forfeited so much travel to DXB.


Your post is devoid of a simple fact in that a large number expats from the subcontinent work in the UAE. Working in the UAE as an expat is seen as a status symbol for them. Many people from the subcontinent stop over in the UAE to meet up with “successful” family members, and for the shopping opportunities it presents without the 30% tax found in the subcontinent.

Yes, there is that set of facts.

But I believe India (BOM or DEL) should have been a natural International to International. In particular Osceana and SE Asia to EU and Africa.



Not going to happen. Who is going to want to stop off in the "third world" on their stopover. I can't think of any major hub that's in such a country.

What India should be striving for though is retaining more of their traffic and pushing more direct service. There's no reason why any Indian should be flying through DXB, AUD or DOH to Europe or North America. Especially when you look at the list of European destinations that EK, EY and QR serve. Virtually all of the European destinations the Gulf 3 serve could be served by an Indian or European carrier direct to BOM or DEL. Virtually all of the North American destinations the Gulf 3 could be operated through DEL with only 1 hr of flight time more max. And all of them have enough traffic to sustain direct service. Heck, arguably BOM-Africa services could have enough traffic to bypass DXB. Especially to destinations in Eastern or Southern Africa, where old colonial and some diasporic connections remain.

I actually see some of this coming to pass in fits and starts from Indian carriers, which is partly why I argue that DWC is needed and the rulers in Dubai and Abu Dhabi need to come to terms with this sooner than later.
 
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Tue Sep 03, 2019 10:30 pm

TObound wrote:
Not going to happen. Who is going to want to stop off in the "third world" on their stopover. I can't think of any major hub that's in such a country.

Heard of BKK, HAN ?
That is the kind of simple minds comment that should be flagged, specially when any transfer in first world USA is more traumatic than anything I have seen in the third world, full of roaming armed robocops, life-threatening X-rays machines, big brother questionnings recorded on cameras with finger prints taken, crammed int'l terminals, hectic queues, stressed & rude ground personnel, delays, misconnections, luggage forced open KGB-style by US customs who leave a nice note that they did so ( I have a few, wonder why, never arrested ). Plus as there is no airside connection, you have to waste time & effort to pick up your own luggage, go through customs, have it inspected, sometimes opened, before rechecking it, when third world hubs do it seamlessly for you, free of charge, even in basic economy. I won't continue detailing my rant on barbaric US airlines, save to say I wouldn't even give some of the food they serve to my dog.

On a sidenote, as a kid, we often flew PA through Karachi, Iraqi Airways to connect through Baghdad - interesting before it was destroyed, or AI to connect in Dehli, TG through BKK, some flew MAS to connect in KL. CX, KL or SQ served then cities still under the "third world label". Any of these 3rd world cities you mention are way more interesting than the ME3's dull hubs, with DOH a distant third. I'll add that Dehli & Bombai are exquisitely rich with their share of fun & less funny surprises ;)

Last, I otherwise totally agree with you India & Pakistan are a mess, aviation wise & beyond.
They could easily resolve that, I mean it's expensive but they have the means & the people to it. I watched all the Dubai Ultimate Airport series in NatGeo, 3 seasons 10 episodes each, if there ever was a brain drain from India/Pak, that surely is one.
 
musman9853
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Wed Sep 04, 2019 12:45 am

edealinfo wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
See what can be done to expand Dubailand. The region would benefit from a Disneyland, but Disney would have to be incentivised like never seen before. Due to the demand for alcohol, some would be in Dubai. Due to the need for money, most would be in Abu Dhabi. Disney world demand premium land, so hotels near the water and probably canals... That is the only quick jolt I can think of to stop the downward spiral.

Lightsaber


Funny you mention this because I have always wondered why there isn't a "Disney Dubai" with the world's largest Disney Princess Castle -- to be the central attraction. Dubai should offer, say, 500 acres of land with $1 M a year lease rental for the next 99 years.................... and most importantly, 100% Disney ownership even if it means changing the local laws, or a decree/edict.

Also because of the oppressive heat and the needs for the park to operate year-round, maybe the entire park should be contained within the world largest (air conditioned) castle. Think of it -- park goers will enjoy the whole day in the cool castle with rides etc within the castle itself. Dubai will also have the bragging rights of a relative monster-sized castle to contain all the attractions. Heck, maybe with creative design they could build hotels/hotel rooms within the giant castle so one would never have to leave the Disney property during their stay.

I am not joking. The above is actually my idea. Feel free to support or criticize the idea of a ginormous "all in one" castle.


Dubai isn't that much hotter than Orlando.
Welcome to the City Beautiful.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Wed Sep 04, 2019 1:08 am

TObound wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
zeke wrote:

Your post is devoid of a simple fact in that a large number expats from the subcontinent work in the UAE. Working in the UAE as an expat is seen as a status symbol for them. Many people from the subcontinent stop over in the UAE to meet up with “successful” family members, and for the shopping opportunities it presents without the 30% tax found in the subcontinent.

Yes, there is that set of facts.

But I believe India (BOM or DEL) should have been a natural International to International. In particular Osceana and SE Asia to EU and Africa.



Not going to happen. Who is going to want to stop off in the "third world" on their stopover. I can't think of any major hub that's in such a country.

What India should be striving for though is retaining more of their traffic and pushing more direct service. There's no reason why any Indian should be flying through DXB, AUD or DOH to Europe or North America. Especially when you look at the list of European destinations that EK, EY and QR serve. Virtually all of the European destinations the Gulf 3 serve could be served by an Indian or European carrier direct to BOM or DEL. Virtually all of the North American destinations the Gulf 3 could be operated through DEL with only 1 hr of flight time more max. And all of them have enough traffic to sustain direct service. Heck, arguably BOM-Africa services could have enough traffic to bypass DXB. Especially to destinations in Eastern or Southern Africa, where old colonial and some diasporic connections remain.

I actually see some of this coming to pass in fits and starts from Indian carriers, which is partly why I argue that DWC is needed and the rulers in Dubai and Abu Dhabi need to come to terms with this sooner than later.

I remember reading similar posts regarding Dubai. EK/DXB made their transfer experience good enough to grow by word of mouth and sports advertising.

For direct service, they will struggle to acheive profitability without a way to boost revenue as connections do. Take LHR-BLR. That flight would never would work without connections.

Take a moment to read about connections for the ME3:
https://www.anna.aero/2016/03/23/connec ... -analysed/

Only down at #6, BOM, does an Indian city first appear. Now imagine Navi Mumbai fed by SYD, MEL, PER, BKK, CGK, and a dozen more airports. Think of all the destinations that cannot happen without 40% to 70% connecting traffic to make the flight break even:. DUB, MAN, EDI, GLA, DUS, a Berlin airport, anywhere in Spain or another French airport than CDG.

To seed direct service, they need a competitive offering. EK has a network of 27 European cities. There isn't enough demand outside of the too 7 EU cities without international to International connections.

India needs a mega hub. With the steep fuel taxes, only the highest yield US routes work direct. Otherwise, connect through the ME3 or EU3 hubs is the economically only viable options.

EK works by feeding 10-20 people from 20 different cities to fill a 777 with high profit O&D and low profit (or passenger at a loss to prevent a flight at a loss). A higher O&D city would thrive.

Ethiopian is using international to International connections to outgrown the competition. That would be ideal for an Indian airline.

Flights could be done. That is easy with the A358LR, 789, or 778. What is hard is profits. Seed the profits and capture markets India is ideally located for.

Or let the ME3/EU3 run the hubs. They have no problem collecting fees on transfer passengers.

Now I argued earlier connecting yield is dropping. So any competing Indian hub will lose money on connections for years. But if it enables direct flights, that enabled the direct flights you desire. As demand grows, copy EK and use large aircraft with lower cost per passenger to turn those connections profitable.

Even better, copy Dubai, allow a hotel building spree and boost tourism.

The more I think about this, the more morose I become on DWC's potential. Someone, oh.. like IST, will adopt the strategy. And ADD.

India will only slowly grow direct flights without international to International connections. Why not tap into easy business to BKK, HKT, DPS as well as larger business centers such as CGK, MEL, PER, SIN, and SYD to launch those EU flights? With the higher O&D of India, we could see global connectivity within a decade.

Or I can spend another decade describing why without connections Indian traffic must hub to a large fraction. Or how the fuel taxes push many to hub.

Lightsaber
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TObound
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Wed Sep 04, 2019 2:25 am

DWC wrote:
TObound wrote:
Not going to happen. Who is going to want to stop off in the "third world" on their stopover. I can't think of any major hub that's in such a country.

Heard of BKK, HAN ?
That is the kind of simple minds comment that should be flagged, specially when any transfer in first world USA is more traumatic than anything I have seen in the third world, full of roaming armed robocops, life-threatening X-rays machines, big brother questionnings recorded on cameras with finger prints taken, crammed int'l terminals, hectic queues, stressed & rude ground personnel, delays, misconnections, luggage forced open KGB-style by US customs who leave a nice note that they did so ( I have a few, wonder why, never arrested ). Plus as there is no airside connection, you have to waste time & effort to pick up your own luggage, go through customs, have it inspected, sometimes opened, before rechecking it, when third world hubs do it seamlessly for you, free of charge, even in basic economy. I won't continue detailing my rant on barbaric US airlines, save to say I wouldn't even give some of the food they serve to my dog.

On a sidenote, as a kid, we often flew PA through Karachi, Iraqi Airways to connect through Baghdad - interesting before it was destroyed, or AI to connect in Dehli, TG through BKK, some flew MAS to connect in KL. CX, KL or SQ served then cities still under the "third world label". Any of these 3rd world cities you mention are way more interesting than the ME3's dull hubs, with DOH a distant third. I'll add that Dehli & Bombai are exquisitely rich with their share of fun & less funny surprises ;)

Last, I otherwise totally agree with you India & Pakistan are a mess, aviation wise & beyond.
They could easily resolve that, I mean it's expensive but they have the means & the people to it. I watched all the Dubai Ultimate Airport series in NatGeo, 3 seasons 10 episodes each, if there ever was a brain drain from India/Pak, that surely is one.


BKK and HAN aren't large connecting hubs. And both are in countries with higher on HDI than India, with Thailand having a GDP per capita that is 3x that of India. Calling Thailand "third world" is a stretch. Do people connect at those airports? Sure. But the bulk of corrections in that part of the world is at SIN or HKG. Which gets back to my point average Joe passenger is going to be challenging to convince to changeover at BOM or DEL. Especially when the alternatives are DXB, AUD, DOH or SIN or IST.
 
TObound
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Wed Sep 04, 2019 2:44 am

lightsaber wrote:
TObound wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Yes, there is that set of facts.

But I believe India (BOM or DEL) should have been a natural International to International. In particular Osceana and SE Asia to EU and Africa.



Not going to happen. Who is going to want to stop off in the "third world" on their stopover. I can't think of any major hub that's in such a country.

What India should be striving for though is retaining more of their traffic and pushing more direct service. There's no reason why any Indian should be flying through DXB, AUD or DOH to Europe or North America. Especially when you look at the list of European destinations that EK, EY and QR serve. Virtually all of the European destinations the Gulf 3 serve could be served by an Indian or European carrier direct to BOM or DEL. Virtually all of the North American destinations the Gulf 3 could be operated through DEL with only 1 hr of flight time more max. And all of them have enough traffic to sustain direct service. Heck, arguably BOM-Africa services could have enough traffic to bypass DXB. Especially to destinations in Eastern or Southern Africa, where old colonial and some diasporic connections remain.

I actually see some of this coming to pass in fits and starts from Indian carriers, which is partly why I argue that DWC is needed and the rulers in Dubai and Abu Dhabi need to come to terms with this sooner than later.

I remember reading similar posts regarding Dubai. EK/DXB made their transfer experience good enough to grow by word of mouth and sports advertising.

For direct service, they will struggle to acheive profitability without a way to boost revenue as connections do. Take LHR-BLR. That flight would never would work without connections.

Take a moment to read about connections for the ME3:
https://www.anna.aero/2016/03/23/connec ... -analysed/

Only down at #6, BOM, does an Indian city first appear. Now imagine Navi Mumbai fed by SYD, MEL, PER, BKK, CGK, and a dozen more airports. Think of all the destinations that cannot happen without 40% to 70% connecting traffic to make the flight break even:. DUB, MAN, EDI, GLA, DUS, a Berlin airport, anywhere in Spain or another French airport than CDG.

To seed direct service, they need a competitive offering. EK has a network of 27 European cities. There isn't enough demand outside of the too 7 EU cities without international to International connections.

India needs a mega hub. With the steep fuel taxes, only the highest yield US routes work direct. Otherwise, connect through the ME3 or EU3 hubs is the economically only viable options.

EK works by feeding 10-20 people from 20 different cities to fill a 777 with high profit O&D and low profit (or passenger at a loss to prevent a flight at a loss). A higher O&D city would thrive.

Ethiopian is using international to International connections to outgrown the competition. That would be ideal for an Indian airline.

Flights could be done. That is easy with the A358LR, 789, or 778. What is hard is profits. Seed the profits and capture markets India is ideally located for.

Or let the ME3/EU3 run the hubs. They have no problem collecting fees on transfer passengers.

Now I argued earlier connecting yield is dropping. So any competing Indian hub will lose money on connections for years. But if it enables direct flights, that enabled the direct flights you desire. As demand grows, copy EK and use large aircraft with lower cost per passenger to turn those connections profitable.

Even better, copy Dubai, allow a hotel building spree and boost tourism.

The more I think about this, the more morose I become on DWC's potential. Someone, oh.. like IST, will adopt the strategy. And ADD.

India will only slowly grow direct flights without international to International connections. Why not tap into easy business to BKK, HKT, DPS as well as larger business centers such as CGK, MEL, PER, SIN, and SYD to launch those EU flights? With the higher O&D of India, we could see global connectivity within a decade.

Or I can spend another decade describing why without connections Indian traffic must hub to a large fraction. Or how the fuel taxes push many to hub.

Lightsaber


Like I said, I spent a good chunk of my childhood in the UAE. I've flown EK in the late 80s and the 90s, before most of the West knew who they were. Sure people can say that nobody thought it was a good idea to connect in Dubai then, but choices were extremely limited back then. Pre-Gulf War there was a bit of competition (Kuwait and Iraq come to mind). Post Gulf War, Dubai took off as a hub and EK was the only solid carrier in the Gulf that didn't require you to transfer in an Islamic puritan paradise.

This is not the case today. AUD, DXB, DOH, IST. That's just the ME4. But flying to the sub-continent, I know people who've transited in HEL and CAI, in addition to the usual suspects of LHR, CDG, AMS, FRA and MUC. In Asia, there's SIN and HKG and the northeastern hubs to compete with. It would be foolish for Indian carriers to pursue this market when they could have profits on a platter with o/d traffic.

Which gets me to my on-topic point. Direct services to the sub-continent is going to take a chunk out of EK, EY and QR. This is why it makes no sense to me that EK and EY will continue to compete.
 
cpd
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Wed Sep 04, 2019 6:30 am

Aquila3 wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
PatrickZ80 wrote:
To make World Central a low-cost airport, they'd have to think differently. The originally planned World Central looked as fancy as could be, which isn't good for a low-cost airport. All that money being wasted on fancy terminals could be better spent on lower airfares. Sure they can build a cheap terminal without airbridges and use that for the LCCs. It doesn't have to look fancy, it just has to do it's job.


No airbridge? In Dubai? Are you sure? The temperatures in the summer are murderous. No airbridge means sending passengers over 45 degree ramps and leaving cabin doors open.

EK does this everyday.
Or better everynight.
Just try to get the flight to/from Lahore. Even arriving in the morning it is not that bad. What is bad is the hour you spend on that bus, advancing palm by palm in traffic jam that is DXB


Our 777 was parked at a remote stand at DXB needing a long scenic bus trip around Dubai airport. It was a first class bus at least.

I don’t mind the stopovers in DXB, they are trouble free.
 
blockski
Posts: 546
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Wed Sep 04, 2019 1:45 pm

musman9853 wrote:
edealinfo wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
See what can be done to expand Dubailand. The region would benefit from a Disneyland, but Disney would have to be incentivised like never seen before. Due to the demand for alcohol, some would be in Dubai. Due to the need for money, most would be in Abu Dhabi. Disney world demand premium land, so hotels near the water and probably canals... That is the only quick jolt I can think of to stop the downward spiral.

Lightsaber


Funny you mention this because I have always wondered why there isn't a "Disney Dubai" with the world's largest Disney Princess Castle -- to be the central attraction. Dubai should offer, say, 500 acres of land with $1 M a year lease rental for the next 99 years.................... and most importantly, 100% Disney ownership even if it means changing the local laws, or a decree/edict.

Also because of the oppressive heat and the needs for the park to operate year-round, maybe the entire park should be contained within the world largest (air conditioned) castle. Think of it -- park goers will enjoy the whole day in the cool castle with rides etc within the castle itself. Dubai will also have the bragging rights of a relative monster-sized castle to contain all the attractions. Heck, maybe with creative design they could build hotels/hotel rooms within the giant castle so one would never have to leave the Disney property during their stay.

I am not joking. The above is actually my idea. Feel free to support or criticize the idea of a ginormous "all in one" castle.


Dubai isn't that much hotter than Orlando.


What? It absolutely is.

In June through September, the average high temp in Dubai is above 100 degrees F. In June through August, the average high temp is hotter than Orlando's record high temp. During the summer, the average highs and lows in Orlando are about 10 degrees F cooler than Dubai. That's a huge difference, particularly for human activity outside.
 
Mi26
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Wed Sep 04, 2019 1:57 pm

Just wondered if Midfield Terminal at Abu Dhabi could accept some "overflow" from DWB. The way ETIHAD is slowing down, perhaps Midfield Terminal, Abu Dhabi might welcome increased utilization.
 
musman9853
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Wed Sep 04, 2019 3:26 pm

blockski wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
edealinfo wrote:

Funny you mention this because I have always wondered why there isn't a "Disney Dubai" with the world's largest Disney Princess Castle -- to be the central attraction. Dubai should offer, say, 500 acres of land with $1 M a year lease rental for the next 99 years.................... and most importantly, 100% Disney ownership even if it means changing the local laws, or a decree/edict.

Also because of the oppressive heat and the needs for the park to operate year-round, maybe the entire park should be contained within the world largest (air conditioned) castle. Think of it -- park goers will enjoy the whole day in the cool castle with rides etc within the castle itself. Dubai will also have the bragging rights of a relative monster-sized castle to contain all the attractions. Heck, maybe with creative design they could build hotels/hotel rooms within the giant castle so one would never have to leave the Disney property during their stay.

I am not joking. The above is actually my idea. Feel free to support or criticize the idea of a ginormous "all in one" castle.


Dubai isn't that much hotter than Orlando.


What? It absolutely is.

In June through September, the average high temp in Dubai is above 100 degrees F. In June through August, the average high temp is hotter than Orlando's record high temp. During the summer, the average highs and lows in Orlando are about 10 degrees F cooler than Dubai. That's a huge difference, particularly for human activity outside.


pure temperature isnt the only factor. Dubai averages around 50% humidity. Orlando is around 90% humidity. that makes up quite a few degrees in difference. Dubai is hotter, yes. But not significantly so. I was in Dubai a few weeks ago. Felt right about the same heat as here in orlando.
Welcome to the City Beautiful.
 
blockski
Posts: 546
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Wed Sep 04, 2019 3:49 pm

musman9853 wrote:
blockski wrote:
musman9853 wrote:

Dubai isn't that much hotter than Orlando.


What? It absolutely is.

In June through September, the average high temp in Dubai is above 100 degrees F. In June through August, the average high temp is hotter than Orlando's record high temp. During the summer, the average highs and lows in Orlando are about 10 degrees F cooler than Dubai. That's a huge difference, particularly for human activity outside.


pure temperature isnt the only factor. Dubai averages around 50% humidity. Orlando is around 90% humidity. that makes up quite a few degrees in difference. Dubai is hotter, yes. But not significantly so. I was in Dubai a few weeks ago. Felt right about the same heat as here in orlando.


Relative Humidity is a garbage stat. For a sense of how humid it feels, use the dewpoint. And the average dewpoints in Dubai from June through September are between 70 and 73 degrees F, which is very humid, and essentially the same as Orlando.

Dubai's humidity is due to the coastal location. Contrast that to, say, Riyadh, where the average July high is 111 degrees F, but the dewpoint is only 36.
 
luckyone
Posts: 2814
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Wed Sep 04, 2019 5:25 pm

DWC wrote:
One should also be aware that were it not for the US sanctions that stunted Iran's economy just as the US embargoed Cuba, Iran has the population & the touristic appeal to become THE natural superconnector in the region. That is not happening soon & Iran has as of now a connecting profile smaller than Bahrain's.

No doubt US sanctions have played a role. But there was also a war with Iraq through most of the 1980s that would've prevented such a development. Also, it's worth noting that the Iranian government for many years post-Revolution had no interest in such a thing, either.
 
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Spiderguy252
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:17 pm

TObound wrote:
Not going to happen. Who is going to want to stop off in the "third world" on their stopover. I can't think of any major hub that's in such a country.


I take it that you haven't heard of Ethiopian Airlines and Addis Ababa then.
Vahroone
 
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william
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:25 pm

As stated in a post, why not just expand the present airport? It would be loosing face move a little bit, but might be cheaper than finishing out DWC.
 
TObound
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Wed Sep 04, 2019 8:08 pm

Spiderguy252 wrote:
TObound wrote:
Not going to happen. Who is going to want to stop off in the "third world" on their stopover. I can't think of any major hub that's in such a country.


I take it that you haven't heard of Ethiopian Airlines and Addis Ababa then.


I have. And you think ET @ ADD is a superconnector?

Again. This is not a list of every airport and airline where connections happen. We're talking specifically about what DXB and EK and AUD and EY do. As I said in my posts earlier, there's plenty of airports and airlines which people use to connect. But there's only a few where non-domestic connecting traffic is a major part of their business model.
 
DWC
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Thu Sep 05, 2019 2:31 am

TObound wrote:
That's just the ME4. But flying to the sub-continent, I know people who've transited in HEL and CAI, in addition to the usual suspects of LHR, CDG, AMS, FRA and MUC. In Asia, there's SIN and HKG and the northeastern hubs to compete with. It would be foolish for Indian carriers to pursue this market when they could have profits on a platter with o/d traffic.

Yes, India should get their economics right & stop the EK nonsense, they are a far bigger country to impose their game. And if so, they could employ all the people who fly to work to the UAE, which could naturally resort to more Irakis, Philippinos.
That said, I really stress not to lump TK with the ME3, not only because it's hub is in Europe ( and deep within if you consider how far east european Russia goes ), but specifically because they follow another model based more on NBs, serve umpteen more destinations than any of the ME3 (though the EK/FZ combo is a respectable competitor), have huge O/D traffic. Last, to avoid clichés or hurt national feelings, no Turk likes to be lumped with the Arabs, they do not speak Arabic for starters & write a language that originated north of China with latin letters & some german umlauts.

TObound wrote:
BKK and HAN aren't large connecting hubs. And both are in countries with higher on HDI than India, with Thailand having a GDP per capita that is 3x that of India. Calling Thailand "third world" is a stretch. Do people connect at those airports? Sure. But the bulk of corrections in that part of the world is at SIN or HKG. Which gets back to my point average Joe passenger is going to be challenging to convince to changeover at BOM or DEL. Especially when the alternatives are DXB, AUD, DOH or SIN or IST.

Yes, they are not superconnectors by ME3 standards, but they are large connecting hubs in an efficient & agreable way, which is my point. Other than having a few times more O/D traffic, pax connect through TG & other FSC like EK, Eva Air ( they have pick up rights ), but also through self-positionning via LCCs like Thai AirAsia, Thai AirAsiaX, NokAir, NokScoot, Bangkok Airways. Someone could have the exact figures. HAN is going the same way, Vietnam airways & local LCCS are developping connectivity within SEAsia but also from Europe to North Asia & Oz.

Thailand is considered a "developping nation", a more PC label than "third world" by the World Bank, in fact there are no "second world countries" which was reserved to centrally planned economies now gone. Most people only stay in BKK's touristic areas & have no idea of how extended & third world BKK actually is, just walk along the klongs or walk between major arteries & you are deep in traditionnal Asia. BKK alone has over 400 registered slums. I lived there, so I know first hand. Thailand is still by & large an agricultural country. Of the 70 million Thais, 8,2 live in BKK, a mere 120.000 live in either country's second & third largest city, Chieng Mai & Patthaya.
Most people are not curious, but a stop-over in IST, DEL or BOM is more gratifying than either ME3 hubs, thriving, good food, temples, gardens, and very cheap, i.e. pointing to all the backpapers & cash-strapped tourists who fly the likes of EK.
To me, DXB, AUH, DOH are not alternatives. SIN perhaps, but unless one is flying to or from Oz, it is too far south for connecting within most of Asia. Likewise, Djakarta is more fun & way cheaper.
Last edited by DWC on Thu Sep 05, 2019 2:53 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
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Spiderguy252
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Thu Sep 05, 2019 2:46 am

TObound wrote:
I have. And you think ET @ ADD is a superconnector?


With 80+ destinations served across all continents bar Australia with dozens and dozens of narrow and widebody aircraft, yes.
Vahroone
 
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b727fan
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Thu Sep 05, 2019 1:32 pm

william wrote:
As stated in a post, why not just expand the present airport? It would be loosing face move a little bit, but might be cheaper than finishing out DWC.


Think of DXB like EWR. It has pretty much maxed out the extension/expansion perimeters and is surrounded by a very developed and $$ infrastructure.

The real power in UAE is in Abu Dhabi (the Capital Emirate where the Zayed family are the ruling Sheikhs). After the 2008-9 bubble burst and real estate crash, Abu Dhabi bailed Dubai out by paying off over half of their debts (anyone who resided there or knows the place well knows exactly what I am talking about). Basically what came after the crash was that A.D. started to expand its assertive power, infrastructure and played major catch up in development of real estate including expanding their own brand and airport. But the thorn on their side is that Dubai has the "marketable name" and since almost a decade has been advertising big on the Expo 2020. Long story short, A.D. pulls the strings when it comes to any new mega development and growth, not just in Dubai but all other 5 Emirates (7 total make up the UAE)
In 2011 I happened to be a very lucky guest at a high profile gathering in Emirates Golf Club where one of the top commercial execs was attending. This person is a local, not an expat, and as I mentioned, I was a very lucky guest and heard him say that Abu Dhabi pretty much owns us (as in Dubai) and they call the shots on everything moving forward including possibility of Etihad (Abu Dhabi in reality) taking over EK but keep the name. This was almost 10 years back!
I see a very grim future for Dubai especially as soon as the artificially inflated Expo 2020 boom goes bust. The Emirate is indirectly taxing the hell out of its population by charging them fees left and right per new regulations and residency requirements. Anything from raising tolls to increasing the fees of legal documents / renewals required to stay. On the surface, Dubai certainly is a glitzy shining city where rich and famous live large and frequently visit, but underneath it all, its foundations are crumbling as the growth hasn't been organic and absolutely not sustainable.
 
moa999
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Thu Sep 05, 2019 1:47 pm

There is a reason that Burj Dubai became Burj Khalifa.
I agree Dubai has issues, and its oil money is running out.

But I don't see the sense for EY to move from AUH which is about to complete it's midfield terminal and has plenty of room for expansion.
 
patrickjp93
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Thu Sep 05, 2019 2:01 pm

DWC wrote:
Well, there is a thread on EK rescheduling its Boeing WB orders, 777X & 787s, and another with their new A350 & A330neo, all of which change the scopes EK had a few years back and what plans Dubai envisionned for DWC, to say nothing of EY's scaling down.

This also influences EK's prospects to keep the A380 longer : while their strategy is based still on the A380 (and 777s), the commercial environment is evolving towards smaller WBs, so in the next decade they may not need all that whopping hundred plus whale jets.


Mind you, the A380s departing the skies with airports as slot-restricted as they are is going to shove existing passengers on fights with 540-600 seats into planes with only 250-425 depending on the frame, so frames like the 777X are still a necessity for Emirates. Even that being said though, with the future of the 777-8 on thin ice and the A350 looking more and more like the best long-term strategic plane for medium-high capacity long-haul flight, it's tough to say if even the 777-9 is the right size aircraft. The theorized -10 was probably what Boeing needed to aim for, because there are plenty of 747s still flying passenger loads today, and that's 300 or so drop-in replacements on top of additional market opportunities.
 
xwb777
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Thu Sep 05, 2019 2:21 pm

DXB could potentially have a capacity of 115 million passengers.

According to a Dubai Airports spokesperson:
"Dubai Airports is currently reviewing its long term master plan to ensure infrastructure development takes full advantage of emerging technologies, responds to consumer trends and preferences and optimizes investment to grow its already significant contributions to Dubai’s economy."

Link: arabianbusiness.com/transport/427289-emirates-airline-to-remain-at-dxb-for-next-decade-amid-dwc-review-says-tim-clark
 
TObound
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Thu Sep 05, 2019 2:26 pm

Spiderguy252 wrote:
TObound wrote:
I have. And you think ET @ ADD is a superconnector?


With 80+ destinations served across all continents bar Australia with dozens and dozens of narrow and widebody aircraft, yes.


If the number of destinations and continents served is the definition than all of the major American carriers or discount carriers like Norwegian are superconnectors. Yet I doubt anybody would classify them as such.

I would argue that the percentage of revenue that is derived from international to international connections is what defines superconnectors. And on that front, there's only a handful.
 
TObound
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Thu Sep 05, 2019 2:42 pm

DWC wrote:
TObound wrote:
That's just the ME4. But flying to the sub-continent, I know people who've transited in HEL and CAI, in addition to the usual suspects of LHR, CDG, AMS, FRA and MUC. In Asia, there's SIN and HKG and the northeastern hubs to compete with. It would be foolish for Indian carriers to pursue this market when they could have profits on a platter with o/d traffic.

That said, I really stress not to lump TK with the ME3, not only because it's hub is in Europe ( and deep within if you consider how far east european Russia goes ), but specifically because they follow another model based more on NBs, serve umpteen more destinations than any of the ME3 (though the EK/FZ combo is a respectable competitor), have huge O/D traffic. Last, to avoid clichés or hurt national feelings, no Turk likes to be lumped with the Arabs, they do not speak Arabic for starters & write a language that originated north of China with latin letters & some german umlauts.


Well aware of Turkish sensitivities. Doesn't mean that they can't be lumped together when talking about aviation. All competing in the same market. Although, I'd agree that Turkish has far higher o/d which makes them less dependent on connecting traffic than the ME3.

DWC wrote:
TObound wrote:
BKK and HAN aren't large connecting hubs. And both are in countries with higher on HDI than India, with Thailand having a GDP per capita that is 3x that of India. Calling Thailand "third world" is a stretch. Do people connect at those airports? Sure. But the bulk of corrections in that part of the world is at SIN or HKG. Which gets back to my point average Joe passenger is going to be challenging to convince to changeover at BOM or DEL. Especially when the alternatives are DXB, AUD, DOH or SIN or IST.

Yes, they are not superconnectors by ME3 standards, but they are large connecting hubs in an efficient & agreable way, which is my point. Other than having a few times more O/D traffic, pax connect through TG & other FSC like EK, Eva Air ( they have pick up rights ), but also through self-positionning via LCCs like Thai AirAsia, Thai AirAsiaX, NokAir, NokScoot, Bangkok Airways. Someone could have the exact figures. HAN is going the same way, Vietnam airways & local LCCS are developping connectivity within SEAsia but also from Europe to North Asia & Oz.

Thailand is considered a "developping nation", a more PC label than "third world" by the World Bank, in fact there are no "second world countries" which was reserved to centrally planned economies now gone. Most people only stay in BKK's touristic areas & have no idea of how extended & third world BKK actually is, just walk along the klongs or walk between major arteries & you are deep in traditionnal Asia. BKK alone has over 400 registered slums. I lived there, so I know first hand. Thailand is still by & large an agricultural country. Of the 70 million Thais, 8,2 live in BKK, a mere 120.000 live in either country's second & third largest city, Chieng Mai & Patthaya.


I get that development is not even in Thailand. But Thailand is not close to India poor.....so to speak. And with substantially more development their demand for aviation services is different. Also, I find it hard to accept that BKK and Thai's focus is connections and not the massive inbound tourist demand.

DWC wrote:
Most people are not curious, but a stop-over in IST, DEL or BOM is more gratifying than either ME3 hubs, thriving, good food, temples, gardens, and very cheap, i.e. pointing to all the backpapers & cash-strapped tourists who fly the likes of EK.
To me, DXB, AUH, DOH are not alternatives. SIN perhaps, but unless one is flying to or from Oz, it is too far south for connecting within most of Asia. Likewise, Djakarta is more fun & way cheaper.


Have visited all of those. And have family in several of those places. I wouldn't consider DEL or BOM easy stopover vacations by any count. Unless of you're of Indian descent, the place would seem insanely chaotic compared to IST, DXB, AUH or DOH. Just think of getting around in all those cities or food safety. Then tell me it doesn't require a fairly adventurous spirit to choose DEL or BOM over the rest for a short stay.
 
TObound
Posts: 311
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Thu Sep 05, 2019 2:44 pm

xwb777 wrote:
DXB could potentially have a capacity of 115 million passengers.

According to a Dubai Airports spokesperson:
"Dubai Airports is currently reviewing its long term master plan to ensure infrastructure development takes full advantage of emerging technologies, responds to consumer trends and preferences and optimizes investment to grow its already significant contributions to Dubai’s economy."

Link: arabianbusiness.com/transport/427289-emirates-airline-to-remain-at-dxb-for-next-decade-amid-dwc-review-says-tim-clark


That would be a madhouse to navigate.
 
DWC
Topic Author
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Thu Sep 05, 2019 3:38 pm

patrickjp93 wrote:
DWC wrote:
Well, there is a thread on EK rescheduling its Boeing WB orders, 777X & 787s, and another with their new A350 & A330neo, all of which change the scopes EK had a few years back and what plans Dubai envisionned for DWC, to say nothing of EY's scaling down.

This also influences EK's prospects to keep the A380 longer : while their strategy is based still on the A380 (and 777s), the commercial environment is evolving towards smaller WBs, so in the next decade they may not need all that whopping hundred plus whale jets.

Mind you, the A380s departing the skies with airports as slot-restricted as they are is going to shove existing passengers on fights with 540-600 seats into planes with only 250-425 depending on the frame, so frames like the 777X are still a necessity for Emirates. Even that being said though, with the future of the 777-8 on thin ice and the A350 looking more and more like the best long-term strategic plane for medium-high capacity long-haul flight, it's tough to say if even the 777-9 is the right size aircraft. The theorized -10 was probably what Boeing needed to aim for, because there are plenty of 747s still flying passenger loads today, and that's 300 or so drop-in replacements on top of additional market opportunities.

I am aware of that, but read those threads before replying on an impulse.
Many members there show how EK are actually downscaling their projections, threatening to defer or cancel orders for their 77Xs & 787s.
Changing their last order of A380s to A350s & A330s also means they have WBs aplenty in a context of slowing growth traffic, so I don't see EK getting their initial 150 77Xs & what was it, 40 787-10 ? At the same time, along your lines, seems EK are now considering keeping some 90 A380s for another 15 years or so - unheard off with EK, after a peak of 115 ( see yesterday's thread on STC )

The very halting of DWC's next expansion phase really suggests EK can do with their current constrained DXB.

Last, on a sidenote, the latest improvements of the A350, not just for project Sunrise, may actually reopen the road to an A350-1100, officially shelved not so long ago. But with the surprise stopping of the A380, Airbus needs something bigger not only to steal some market from the 77X, but also to cap Boeing's premium on it. It is estimated that without a suitable competitor, albeit imperfect, Boeing are charging 30-40 million extra per frame, after the launch price campaigns that is. But even with say 100 frames only, that's enough to pay for the necessary investement by Airbus for a new version to maintain or even dent into the VLA market the 77X now has all to itself. Aeronautics is not just about bottomlines, it is also a "strategic" industrial sector, i.e. other important considerations come into play. With traffic increasing globally, I am confident Airbus will up their game on the VLA. I don't know when nor how, but doing it on the A350 is the least expensive solution.
In fact, Boeing were absolutely right when they said Airbus had a major problem with their WB line-up : the demise of both the A358 & A380, plus the sluggish sales of the A338, all point to that. The A35K should have been the base version from starters. The A380 was to slow to come into the market, lost competitiveness with their multiple delays & problems, engine manufacturers didn't tell them they were working on new techs ( so said Leahy ), all while the industrial environment changed drammatically with new efficient WB twins. Before leaving, Brégier said the A380 was introduced 10 years too early. Perhaps, but not for EK. There also is a scenario where its cruising manufacturing era was actually some 10 years too late.
 
patrickjp93
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Re: Dubai World Central (DWC) expansion officially halted

Thu Sep 05, 2019 4:26 pm

DWC wrote:
I am aware of that, but read those threads before replying on an impulse.

No need to be a dickhead.
Many members there show how EK are actually downscaling their projections, threatening to defer or cancel orders for their 77Xs & 787s.
Changing their last order of A380s to A350s & A330s also means they have WBs aplenty in a context of slowing growth traffic, so I don't see EK getting their initial 150 77Xs & what was it, 40 787-10 ? At the same time, along your lines, seems EK are now considering keeping some 90 A380s for another 15 years or so - unheard off with EK, after a peak of 115 ( see yesterday's thread on STC )

I can't speak to the full calculus of Emirates' strategy, but Tim Clark is known to take a page out of a lot of old books: make a scene in public to negotiate better deals in private, such as him taking aim at Airbus, Boeing, GE, and RR all at once over their plane and engine fiascos as of late. Also, that's going from running just 2 aircraft types to 6. I'm sure Emirates will find a way to either scrap the A330 NEOs or the 787s, just a matter of which. Otherwise their maintenance and hangar costs all over the globe will balloon insanely.

The A350s will replace the old 777-300ERs because they're the same capacity. The 777-9 takes over the underperforming A380 routes, and routes where the 777-300ER wasn't quite enough, the 777-9 is a good up-gauge. I easily see them needing all 150 -9s in the end, unless Boeing or Airbus launch a brand new VLA sometime in the next year or two.

EK won't keep the A380s that long, no way. There may be SOME routes for which it makes sense, but not 30+ of them. London, Paris, Frankfurt, New York, Atlanta, Sydney, Auckland+Brisbane, Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur, Singapore, and Tokyo to Dubai are the only ones that maintain load factors that'll keep the A380 profitable as fuel prices keep rising. The A380 will die under its own weight by 2030, no question. Aviation fuel would have to fall back to $60-$50/barrel to keep her flying.

The very halting of DWC's next expansion phase really suggests EK can do with their current constrained DXB.

While passenger counts will fall 10% year on year by 2030 thanks to direct flights and falling tourism demand in the region, replacing 1 A380 flight with 2 B787/B777/A330/A350 flights will require more landing slots than DXB currently has, in addition to reconfiguring some of the standing A380 gates to fit 2 smaller craft each, or 2 gates to fit 3 craft. For reasons other than pure load factor, DXB can't really handle that on its own going by landing slot availability. If you replaced every flying A380 with 2 smaller planes, you'd be over slot capacity at DXB by 26%. Maybe another runway could fix this, but you'd make DXB busier than LHR in terms of how many planes would land per day.

Last, on a sidenote, the latest improvements of the A350, not just for project Sunrise, may actually reopen the road to an A350-1100, officially shelved not so long ago. But with the surprise stopping of the A380, Airbus needs something bigger not only to steal some market from the 77X, but also to cap Boeing's premium on it. It is estimated that without a suitable competitor, albeit imperfect, Boeing are charging 30-40 million extra per frame, after the launch price campaigns that is. But even with say 100 frames only, that's enough to pay for the necessary investement by Airbus for a new version to maintain or even dent into the VLA market the 77X now has all to itself. Aeronautics is not just about bottomlines, it is also a "strategic" industrial sector, i.e. other important considerations come into play. With traffic increasing globally, I am confident Airbus will up their game on the VLA. I don't know when nor how, but doing it on the A350 is the least expensive solution. In fact, Boeing were right, Airbus has a problems with their WB line-up, the demise of the A358, A380 and sluggish A338 sales point to that. The A35K should have been the base version from starters.

The A350-1100 will come only with the NEO. It's too late to pitch it in the CEO lineup. By the time it's drawn up, specced, and certified, the Trent Ultrafan would be entering its ground certification. The A350-900 was the correct base model in my opinion. In fact, the most optimal Sunrise config is a modified A350-900 ULR. Put the larger -1000 wings on it, use a ~90,000lb. of thrust Trent XWB, and extend the central fuel tank just a bit to get your range back up to 17,500-18,000km. That gets you 270 pax with decent cargo without the extra airframe weight of the -1000.

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