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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 01, 2019 12:50 pm

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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 01, 2019 2:39 pm

On the outbound flight from PER NH has been loaded with 2.5 tonnes of avocados, 2.6 tonnes of fresh flowers and 1.5 tonnes of fresh meat

https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/travel ... 881309404z
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rtav
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 01, 2019 3:28 pm

No Water Cannon for ANA tonight, but a lovely send off by the ground crew - traditional Japanese send off waving!
 
Obzerva
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:25 pm

Just a quick one to note, with all the discussion around VA and their financial results, and the talk of routes being reviewed.

I noticed that VA is now allowing interline tickets on to domestic Air NZ flights to be sold. Good to see a bit of thawing in the relationship and pragmatic heads prevailing.
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:57 pm

I also did notice some VA FF had recently received email surveys about Alliances in general mentioning the likes of Oneworld, Star Alliance and SkyTeam.
Perhaps SQ and EY are reducing their influence (on who can and cannot partner with VA) greatly.

Saying that, VA joining any Alliance in general is STILL UNLIKELY in the medium to long term. They don't have the money lying around (There's also the extra expenses of upgrading their computer systems as mentioned by others in last month's thread) and the current group of shareholders have technically stated that are no longer investing further $$ in VA.
 
xiaotung
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 12:05 am

SCFlyer wrote:
I also did notice some VA FF had recently received email surveys about Alliances in general mentioning the likes of Oneworld, Star Alliance and SkyTeam.
Perhaps SQ and EY are reducing their influence (on who can and cannot partner with VA) greatly.

Saying that, VA joining any Alliance in general is STILL UNLIKELY in the medium to long term. They don't have the money lying around (There's also the extra expenses of upgrading their computer systems as mentioned by others in last month's thread) and the current group of shareholders have technically stated that are no longer investing further $$ in VA.


Which is why perhaps *A Connecting Partner Model which requires minimum investment and a workaround to avoid UA/NZ.
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 12:12 am

SCFlyer wrote:
I also did notice some VA FF had recently received email surveys about Alliances in general mentioning the likes of Oneworld, Star Alliance and SkyTeam.
Perhaps SQ and EY are reducing their influence (on who can and cannot partner with VA) greatly.

Saying that, VA joining any Alliance in general is STILL UNLIKELY in the medium to long term. They don't have the money lying around and the current group of shareholders have technically stated that are no longer investing further $$ in VA.

The global alliances are pretty irrelevant these days with few new entrants in the past 5 years. Most airlines are more interested in bilaterals with other airlines regardless of alliance membership such as NZ/CX, SQ/GA, EK/QF and KL/QF. Like lots of other airlines such as AS, B6, VS, EK, I doubt VA could see much advantage in it, particularly if the rumoured USD10M sign-on fee is true.

The current trio of alliances were born in the '90s with lots of promises such as common FF scheme, common aircraft orders and common service standards. None of this has happened with some airlines such as BA, UA and SQ offering lounge rights greater for their own customers than alliance members and most airlines giving greater status recognition for flying with themself rather than alliance partners.
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Chris2302
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 12:52 am

What future US destinations and increase in services do you think Qantas could be looking at given they order more 787s and use some PS aircraft.

PS:
Charlotte
New York

787:
Phoenix Sky-Harbour
SEA/YVR
DFW 787 MEL & SYD
Increase BNE-ORD & SFO to daily
SYD - SFO
SEA
YVR

Will MEL-SFO stay as it is go daily or go and help launch with the MEL-LAX 95/96 going daily DFW??
Last edited by Chris2302 on Mon Sep 02, 2019 12:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
DeltaB717
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 12:56 am

It would be remiss for the folks discussing the additional HND frequency that has been negotiated by Australia to simply assume that frequency will be awarded to QF and thus a quick win for the TYO B744 situation...
 
Qantas16
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 2:03 am

DeltaB717 wrote:
It would be remiss for the folks discussing the additional HND frequency that has been negotiated by Australia to simply assume that frequency will be awarded to QF and thus a quick win for the TYO B744 situation...


True, but the only other option would be VA. The likely route VA would operate would be SYD-HND (BNE also a possibility). Presuming the flights have to operate between 2300-0700, VA will likely have to run a similar schedule to QF/NH and thus requires 2 aircraft to operate the route daily. So they either use the 77W (would require removing a daily LAX frequency) or A332s which would likely mean the end of HKG services. VA also has no feed from HND. So I think it's fair to presume the frequency would go to QF.

In which case... I'm not convinced a 2nd daily SYD-HND would be the option.. presuming similar times to those mentioned earlier:

ZK-NBT wrote:
SYD 2045 HND 0515
HND 0700 SYD 1730

SYD 1330 HND 2200
HND 2345 SYD 1015

Not ideal need a flight 2-3 hrs earlier HND-SYD.


Both HND-SYD flights aren't at great times, with the 0700 one being too early and the 2345 one being a bit too late and arriving in SYD a few hours later in the morning than JL/NH. I'd think it more likely that MEL or BNE would be transferred over to HND and QF launch a SYD-NRT flight to complement a down gauged SYD-HND.
 
Qantas16
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 2:07 am

rtav wrote:
No Water Cannon for ANA tonight, but a lovely send off by the ground crew - traditional Japanese send off waving!


Does anybody know what ground handler they are using in PER? I believe they use Menzies in SYD.
 
getluv
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 2:13 am

DeltaB717 wrote:
It would be remiss for the folks discussing the additional HND frequency that has been negotiated by Australia to simply assume that frequency will be awarded to QF and thus a quick win for the TYO B744 situation...


Is there evidence to support the additional frequency allocation to HND for Australian designated airlines?

The frequency is likely to go to the first airline who applies for it. If VA were to appeal a QF application, it would have to demonstrate it would be commencing services. You can’t apply for it and put a placeholder on it.

If there was any objection from VA, it would be if QF were to add JL.
I'm that bad type.
 
Gemuser
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 2:32 am

Chris2302 wrote:
What future US destinations and increase in services do you think Qantas could be looking at given they order more 787s and use some PS aircraft.

PS:
Charlotte
New York

787:
Phoenix Sky-Harbour
SEA/YVR
DFW 787 MEL & SYD
Increase BNE-ORD & SFO to daily
SYD - SFO
SEA
YVR

Will MEL-SFO stay as it is go daily or go and help launch with the MEL-LAX 95/96 going daily DFW??

I relaise that you have targetted AA hubs BUT
- Charlotte, what does this give that DFW & ORD don't?
- New York is already announced with PS aircraft
- PHX I doubt there is sufficient traffic, LAS is more likely and even that is unlilely
- YVR definately, SEA unlikely
- MEL - DFW there is some contversy if the B789 can relialabley make it range wise. SYD - DFW maybe/maybe not
- Increase BNE-ORD & SFO to daily SFO almost certainly. INMHO BNE - ORD will go SYD - ORD when the PS aircraft arrive, could BNE keep ORD after that, who knows
- SYD - SFO goes B789 mid December [already in GDS]
- SEA/YVR see above

Gemuser
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 3:58 am

BITRE international numbers out for June

https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/o ... y_1906.pdf
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A350OZ
Posts: 174
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 4:04 am

Gemuser wrote:
Chris2302 wrote:
What future US destinations and increase in services do you think Qantas could be looking at given they order more 787s and use some PS aircraft.

PS:
Charlotte
New York

787:
Phoenix Sky-Harbour
SEA/YVR
DFW 787 MEL & SYD
Increase BNE-ORD & SFO to daily
SYD - SFO
SEA
YVR

Will MEL-SFO stay as it is go daily or go and help launch with the MEL-LAX 95/96 going daily DFW??

I relaise that you have targetted AA hubs BUT
- Charlotte, what does this give that DFW & ORD don't?
- New York is already announced with PS aircraft
- PHX I doubt there is sufficient traffic, LAS is more likely and even that is unlilely
- YVR definately, SEA unlikely
- MEL - DFW there is some contversy if the B789 can relialabley make it range wise. SYD - DFW maybe/maybe not
- Increase BNE-ORD & SFO to daily SFO almost certainly. INMHO BNE - ORD will go SYD - ORD when the PS aircraft arrive, could BNE keep ORD after that, who knows
- SYD - SFO goes B789 mid December [already in GDS]
- SEA/YVR see above

Gemuser


I largely agree with Gemuser. There will not be huge expansion beyond what is already announced/visible. there is more capacity across the Pacific today than there has ever been before, be it by QF or across all airlines. It is not in QF's interest to flood the market further and see margins erode.

Once Project Sunrise is in place and non-stop to JFK commences, I think it is fair to assume we could also expect ORD to transition to SYD, and maybe a MEL-DFW added. I do not see any new destinations, SEA the most likely one but even that is an outside chance.

Assuming AA also steps in with some flights to MEL and BNE, weekly frequencies I foresee:
LAX 21 (7 each from SYD, MEL, BNE)
SFO 14 (SYD 7, MEL 4, BNE 3) - maybe some addl frequencies from MEL and BNE over time
DFW 10-14 (SYD 7, MEL 3 to 7)
ORD 5 to 7 (SYD)
JFK 7 (SYD)
YVR 4 to 6 (SYD)

This would represent between 15 and 25% increase in frequency compared to today, which is a lot.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 5:11 am

Qantas16 wrote:
DeltaB717 wrote:
It would be remiss for the folks discussing the additional HND frequency that has been negotiated by Australia to simply assume that frequency will be awarded to QF and thus a quick win for the TYO B744 situation...


True, but the only other option would be VA. The likely route VA would operate would be SYD-HND (BNE also a possibility). Presuming the flights have to operate between 2300-0700, VA will likely have to run a similar schedule to QF/NH and thus requires 2 aircraft to operate the route daily. So they either use the 77W (would require removing a daily LAX frequency) or A332s which would likely mean the end of HKG services. VA also has no feed from HND. So I think it's fair to presume the frequency would go to QF.

In which case... I'm not convinced a 2nd daily SYD-HND would be the option.. presuming similar times to those mentioned earlier:

ZK-NBT wrote:
SYD 2045 HND 0515
HND 0700 SYD 1730

SYD 1330 HND 2200
HND 2345 SYD 1015

Not ideal need a flight 2-3 hrs earlier HND-SYD.


Both HND-SYD flights aren't at great times, with the 0700 one being too early and the 2345 one being a bit too late and arriving in SYD a few hours later in the morning than JL/NH. I'd think it more likely that MEL or BNE would be transferred over to HND and QF launch a SYD-NRT flight to complement a down gauged SYD-HND.


Assuming a second flight has to be in nighttime hours 2200-0700 the problem you have is still the same even using MEL or BNE, MEL/BNE-HND would arrive a 2200 and turn to SYD at 2345 and SYD arrival 0515 returning as a daylight to MEL/BNE and would need to use the same type, does MEL/BNE need a 789 or does an A333 have enough premium capacity for SYD-HND? Unless you park 2 frames from 0500-2200 for both SYD plus 1, not likely IMO.
 
QF742
Posts: 200
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 5:44 am

A350OZ wrote:
Gemuser wrote:
Chris2302 wrote:
What future US destinations and increase in services do you think Qantas could be looking at given they order more 787s and use some PS aircraft.

PS:
Charlotte
New York

787:
Phoenix Sky-Harbour
SEA/YVR
DFW 787 MEL & SYD
Increase BNE-ORD & SFO to daily
SYD - SFO
SEA
YVR

Will MEL-SFO stay as it is go daily or go and help launch with the MEL-LAX 95/96 going daily DFW??

I relaise that you have targetted AA hubs BUT
- Charlotte, what does this give that DFW & ORD don't?
- New York is already announced with PS aircraft
- PHX I doubt there is sufficient traffic, LAS is more likely and even that is unlilely
- YVR definately, SEA unlikely
- MEL - DFW there is some contversy if the B789 can relialabley make it range wise. SYD - DFW maybe/maybe not
- Increase BNE-ORD & SFO to daily SFO almost certainly. INMHO BNE - ORD will go SYD - ORD when the PS aircraft arrive, could BNE keep ORD after that, who knows
- SYD - SFO goes B789 mid December [already in GDS]
- SEA/YVR see above

Gemuser


I largely agree with Gemuser. There will not be huge expansion beyond what is already announced/visible. there is more capacity across the Pacific today than there has ever been before, be it by QF or across all airlines. It is not in QF's interest to flood the market further and see margins erode.

Once Project Sunrise is in place and non-stop to JFK commences, I think it is fair to assume we could also expect ORD to transition to SYD, and maybe a MEL-DFW added. I do not see any new destinations, SEA the most likely one but even that is an outside chance.

Assuming AA also steps in with some flights to MEL and BNE, weekly frequencies I foresee:
LAX 21 (7 each from SYD, MEL, BNE)
SFO 14 (SYD 7, MEL 4, BNE 3) - maybe some addl frequencies from MEL and BNE over time
DFW 10-14 (SYD 7, MEL 3 to 7)
ORD 5 to 7 (SYD)
JFK 7 (SYD)
YVR 4 to 6 (SYD)

This would represent between 15 and 25% increase in frequency compared to today, which is a lot.


I agree with what you have said above re frequencies. One thing to add is that although frequencies may increase over the coming years, capacity may not increase by as much as you speculate. QF will eventually replace the SYD/MEL-LAX and SYD-DFW flights with a smaller aircraft (possibly the sunrise aircraft configured for shorter segments). I assume these aircraft will have 100 or so seats less than the A380.
 
Captdasbomb
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 6:27 am

EK413 wrote:
A treat for those traveling on tomorrow's (02SEP) QF575 SYDPER, QF580 PERSYD B747 -OEE is operating in lieu of the regular A330.

EK413


What happened to the treat?
 
tullamarine
Posts: 2591
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 1999 1:14 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 6:34 am

Gemuser wrote:
Chris2302 wrote:
What future US destinations and increase in services do you think Qantas could be looking at given they order more 787s and use some PS aircraft.

PS:
Charlotte
New York

787:
Phoenix Sky-Harbour
SEA/YVR
DFW 787 MEL & SYD
Increase BNE-ORD & SFO to daily
SYD - SFO
SEA
YVR

Will MEL-SFO stay as it is go daily or go and help launch with the MEL-LAX 95/96 going daily DFW??

I relaise that you have targetted AA hubs BUT
- Charlotte, what does this give that DFW & ORD don't?
- New York is already announced with PS aircraft
- PHX I doubt there is sufficient traffic, LAS is more likely and even that is unlilely
- YVR definately, SEA unlikely
- MEL - DFW there is some contversy if the B789 can relialabley make it range wise. SYD - DFW maybe/maybe not
- Increase BNE-ORD & SFO to daily SFO almost certainly. INMHO BNE - ORD will go SYD - ORD when the PS aircraft arrive, could BNE keep ORD after that, who knows
- SYD - SFO goes B789 mid December [already in GDS]
- SEA/YVR see above

Gemuser

I largely agree with this. Just because it is an AA hub doesn't make it a destination that QF should directly service; between LAX, ORD and DFW QF has just about covered all of the US connections anyway. Realistically a destination needs a significant portion of O&D traffic; just connecting into a hub isn't enough but good O&D plus a hub is compelling.

I doubt SEA has sufficient O&D and the AS hub benefit is fairly questionable given it doesn't really add any destinations not already met by LAX. YVR has definite sufficient O&D and links into Westjet. CLT, PHX and MIA are all definite no's. MEL-DFW, if a 789 can do it, is a chance but I question the demand and wonder if it only works in SYD-DFW becomes a 789 also.

Trans-Pacific is nowhere near the gold-mine it once was for QF. Once it was only UA and QF; now the market has AA (admitttedly in a JV), VA, DL, NZ (offering one-stops into LAX, SFO and IAH) as well as an increased presence by UA. The market just isn't that elastic to absorb massive growth in a short space of time without crushing yields and the diving AUD will probably mean the attractiveness of the US as a tourist destination will decline over the next year or so.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
Ivarino
Posts: 12
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 6:37 am

Captdasbomb wrote:
EK413 wrote:
A treat for those traveling on tomorrow's (02SEP) QF575 SYDPER, QF580 PERSYD B747 -OEE is operating in lieu of the regular A330.

EK413


What happened to the treat?


Ended up being VH-OEH operating that flight I believe. Which is still a treat of B747 instead of a A330.
 
A350OZ
Posts: 174
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2017 9:20 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 6:38 am

QF742 wrote:
A350OZ wrote:
Gemuser wrote:
I relaise that you have targetted AA hubs BUT
- Charlotte, what does this give that DFW & ORD don't?
- New York is already announced with PS aircraft
- PHX I doubt there is sufficient traffic, LAS is more likely and even that is unlilely
- YVR definately, SEA unlikely
- MEL - DFW there is some contversy if the B789 can relialabley make it range wise. SYD - DFW maybe/maybe not
- Increase BNE-ORD & SFO to daily SFO almost certainly. INMHO BNE - ORD will go SYD - ORD when the PS aircraft arrive, could BNE keep ORD after that, who knows
- SYD - SFO goes B789 mid December [already in GDS]
- SEA/YVR see above

Gemuser


I largely agree with Gemuser. There will not be huge expansion beyond what is already announced/visible. there is more capacity across the Pacific today than there has ever been before, be it by QF or across all airlines. It is not in QF's interest to flood the market further and see margins erode.

Once Project Sunrise is in place and non-stop to JFK commences, I think it is fair to assume we could also expect ORD to transition to SYD, and maybe a MEL-DFW added. I do not see any new destinations, SEA the most likely one but even that is an outside chance.

Assuming AA also steps in with some flights to MEL and BNE, weekly frequencies I foresee:
LAX 21 (7 each from SYD, MEL, BNE)
SFO 14 (SYD 7, MEL 4, BNE 3) - maybe some addl frequencies from MEL and BNE over time
DFW 10-14 (SYD 7, MEL 3 to 7)
ORD 5 to 7 (SYD)
JFK 7 (SYD)
YVR 4 to 6 (SYD)

This would represent between 15 and 25% increase in frequency compared to today, which is a lot.


I agree with what you have said above re frequencies. One thing to add is that although frequencies may increase over the coming years, capacity may not increase by as much as you speculate. QF will eventually replace the SYD/MEL-LAX and SYD-DFW flights with a smaller aircraft (possibly the sunrise aircraft configured for shorter segments). I assume these aircraft will have 100 or so seats less than the A380.


Agreed also, but as we have seen with LHR, this may well be intentional and given QF's focus on the premium classes and high-yield traffic, it may be a good thing for the bottom line (frequencies up, premium cabin capacity constant or increases, Y capacity decreases).
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7537
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 6:38 am

Captdasbomb wrote:
EK413 wrote:
A treat for those traveling on tomorrow's (02SEP) QF575 SYDPER, QF580 PERSYD B747 -OEE is operating in lieu of the regular A330.

EK413


What happened to the treat?


It operated with a 744, OEH did it.
 
User avatar
chepos
Posts: 7273
Joined: Sat Dec 02, 2000 9:40 am

Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 6:39 am

tullamarine wrote:
Gemuser wrote:
Chris2302 wrote:
What future US destinations and increase in services do you think Qantas could be looking at given they order more 787s and use some PS aircraft.

PS:
Charlotte
New York

787:
Phoenix Sky-Harbour
SEA/YVR
DFW 787 MEL & SYD
Increase BNE-ORD & SFO to daily
SYD - SFO
SEA
YVR

Will MEL-SFO stay as it is go daily or go and help launch with the MEL-LAX 95/96 going daily DFW??

I relaise that you have targetted AA hubs BUT
- Charlotte, what does this give that DFW & ORD don't?
- New York is already announced with PS aircraft
- PHX I doubt there is sufficient traffic, LAS is more likely and even that is unlilely
- YVR definately, SEA unlikely
- MEL - DFW there is some contversy if the B789 can relialabley make it range wise. SYD - DFW maybe/maybe not
- Increase BNE-ORD & SFO to daily SFO almost certainly. INMHO BNE - ORD will go SYD - ORD when the PS aircraft arrive, could BNE keep ORD after that, who knows
- SYD - SFO goes B789 mid December [already in GDS]
- SEA/YVR see above

Gemuser

I largely agree with this. Just because it is an AA hub doesn't make it a destination that QF should directly service; between LAX, ORD and DFW QF has just about covered all of the US connections anyway. Realistically a destination needs a significant portion of O&D traffic; just connecting into a hub isn't enough but good O&D plus a hub is compelling.

I doubt SEA has sufficient O&D and the AS hub benefit is fairly questionable given it doesn't really add any destinations not already met by LAX. YVR has definite sufficient O&D and links into Westjet. CLT, PHX and MIA are all definite no's. MEL-DFW, if a 789 can do it, is a chance but I question the demand and wonder if it only works in SYD-DFW becomes a 789 also.

Trans-Pacific is nowhere near the gold-mine it once was for QF. Once it was only UA and QF; now the market has AA (admitttedly in a JV), VA, DL, NZ (offering one-stops into LAX, SFO and IAH) as well as an increased presence by UA. The market just isn't that elastic to absorb massive growth in a short space of time without crushing yields and the diving AUD will probably mean the attractiveness of the US as a tourist destination will decline over the next year or so.


Is there really that much O&D on say SYD-DFW? I would venture to say the main reason the flight exist is due to the wide array of connections in DFW. Without connections that flight would not exist.

Don’t get me wrong though, I agree that a CLT flight is completely redundant DFW serves the role perfectly.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Fly the Flag!!!!
 
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EK413
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 7:21 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
Captdasbomb wrote:
EK413 wrote:
A treat for those traveling on tomorrow's (02SEP) QF575 SYDPER, QF580 PERSYD B747 -OEE is operating in lieu of the regular A330.

EK413


What happened to the treat?


It operated with a 744, OEH did it.


Correct.

The B747 was the treat considering they’ll be retired next year. :(


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. We are tonight’s entertainment!
 
QF742
Posts: 200
Joined: Sat Aug 18, 2018 1:00 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 7:30 am

A350OZ wrote:
QF742 wrote:
A350OZ wrote:

I largely agree with Gemuser. There will not be huge expansion beyond what is already announced/visible. there is more capacity across the Pacific today than there has ever been before, be it by QF or across all airlines. It is not in QF's interest to flood the market further and see margins erode.

Once Project Sunrise is in place and non-stop to JFK commences, I think it is fair to assume we could also expect ORD to transition to SYD, and maybe a MEL-DFW added. I do not see any new destinations, SEA the most likely one but even that is an outside chance.

Assuming AA also steps in with some flights to MEL and BNE, weekly frequencies I foresee:
LAX 21 (7 each from SYD, MEL, BNE)
SFO 14 (SYD 7, MEL 4, BNE 3) - maybe some addl frequencies from MEL and BNE over time
DFW 10-14 (SYD 7, MEL 3 to 7)
ORD 5 to 7 (SYD)
JFK 7 (SYD)
YVR 4 to 6 (SYD)

This would represent between 15 and 25% increase in frequency compared to today, which is a lot.


I agree with what you have said above re frequencies. One thing to add is that although frequencies may increase over the coming years, capacity may not increase by as much as you speculate. QF will eventually replace the SYD/MEL-LAX and SYD-DFW flights with a smaller aircraft (possibly the sunrise aircraft configured for shorter segments). I assume these aircraft will have 100 or so seats less than the A380.


Agreed also, but as we have seen with LHR, this may well be intentional and given QF's focus on the premium classes and high-yield traffic, it may be a good thing for the bottom line (frequencies up, premium cabin capacity constant or increases, Y capacity decreases).


Correct. I think we will continue to see more point to point routes and an overall spread of capacity across multiple points, rather than just a single point as it was in the past (ie LAX).
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 7:54 am

LAX frequencies will reduce across the big 3 cities when more p2p routes open. But at the same time, I do wonder if the A380s will be refurb'd (again) in the medium/long term to remove F to make it a 3 class (J/W/Y) aircraft for longer routes that either have slot issues or to to merge some flights into one.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 8:04 am

SCFlyer wrote:
LAX frequencies will reduce across the big 3 cities when more p2p routes open. But at the same time, I do wonder if the A380s will be refurb'd (again) in the medium/long term to remove F to make it a 3 class (J/W/Y) aircraft for longer routes that either have slot issues or to to merge some flights into one.


The refurbishments that are currently underway will be the final refurbishment of the A380 fleet until they are retired (unless some completely unforeseen event occurs in the intervening time).
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 8:11 am

SCFlyer wrote:
LAX frequencies will reduce across the big 3 cities when more p2p routes open. But at the same time, I do wonder if the A380s will be refurb'd (again) in the medium/long term to remove F to make it a 3 class (J/W/Y) aircraft for longer routes that either have slot issues or to to merge some flights into one.


There won’t be a lot more to reduce ex LAX, BNE is 10 weekly and will go 13 weekly for DEC/JAN before ORD/SFO take that capacity from April, MEL is 9 weekly and it’s likely the 2 789s will either become slack in the fleet or transfer to SFO, however it’s widely expected AA will operate MEL-LAX in some form weather seasonal or year round. SYD gets extra flight in DEC/JAN which may still be required. But you will still see daily SYD/MEL/BNE-LAX on Qaf metal at the very least.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:06 am

Just read an article on Japanese site that Australia and Japan will both receive two pairs of slot respectively.

Japan side being NH/JL each and nothing revealed for Australia side yet. (Presumably it will be VA/QF each)

It really opens up all the possibility on cities other than Sydney flying to HND.

QF will most likely use new slots on SYD/HND as per AJ’s plan.

JL has one pair slot and will most definitely use it on their SYD route.

The biggest discussion will probably be on what route will NH/VA be commencing. (Arguably NH will go for MEL but not sure about VA)
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:52 am

a19901213 wrote:
Just read an article on Japanese site that Australia and Japan will both receive two pairs of slot respectively.

Japan side being NH/JL each and nothing revealed for Australia side yet. (Presumably it will be VA/QF each)

It really opens up all the possibility on cities other than Sydney flying to HND.

QF will most likely use new slots on SYD/HND as per AJ’s plan.

JL has one pair slot and will most definitely use it on their SYD route.

The biggest discussion will probably be on what route will NH/VA be commencing. (Arguably NH will go for MEL but not sure about VA)


Is there a deadline for when the slots need to be used by?

Do NH already do SYD-HND?
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 10:04 am

I wouldn't expect VA to use any HND slot (if given at all) considering their current situation financially.

In the (unlikely) case of VA entering Japan it would likely be in partnership with NH and at the same time replacing the HKG flights (as HNA no longer has any no clout (nor any money) in the VA boardroom).
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 10:12 am

SCFlyer wrote:
I wouldn't expect VA to use any HND slot (if given at all) considering their current situation financially.

In the (unlikely) case of VA entering Japan it would likely be in partnership with NH and at the same time replacing the HKG flights (as HNA no longer has any no clout (nor any money) in the VA boardroom).


Agree, HND would be a swap for HKG, would also help NH with their recently launched PER flight if there was at very least an interline between NH and VA on each other's domestic flights.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 10:19 am

smi0006 wrote:
a19901213 wrote:
Just read an article on Japanese site that Australia and Japan will both receive two pairs of slot respectively.

Japan side being NH/JL each and nothing revealed for Australia side yet. (Presumably it will be VA/QF each)

It really opens up all the possibility on cities other than Sydney flying to HND.

QF will most likely use new slots on SYD/HND as per AJ’s plan.

JL has one pair slot and will most definitely use it on their SYD route.

The biggest discussion will probably be on what route will NH/VA be commencing. (Arguably NH will go for MEL but not sure about VA)


Is there a deadline for when the slots need to be used by?

Do NH already do SYD-HND?

They already does, daily NH879/880 on 787-9.

I'm betting that they're actually launching a new Australian route with the HND slot - whether it's a transfer of PER or adding some other cities remains to be seen.

Keep in mind that this apparently is daytime slot not nighttime slot, so would help tremendously in terms of getting up the aircraft utilisation.

Michael
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 20197s

Mon Sep 02, 2019 10:56 am

I see QF applying for both slots and consolidating everything at HND, despite having GK operations at NRT. Once the Olympics are over and the 747s are gone, I see QF working on making CTS year round and KIX daily. While QF did announce a NRT lounge refresh, nothing has happened since.

I doubt VA will be in a situation to object as services would need to commence by the start of the NS20 season.

I don’t see NH and VA collaborating. VA has too much on their plate.
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:09 am

New slots will be started from 29 Mar 2020 which is not far away from now, I expect some announcements made by Australia authority&Qantas very soon.

QF will most certainly start a new daytime departure flight from both Syd/HND which allows them to fully utilise their fleets so they don’t need to sit their planes in HND for 15HRS.

However I do wonder what aircraft will they be using. Not sure if there are still some slacks in their 789 in order to deploy them on the routes.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:18 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
Planes4you wrote:
When will QF announce more 787 routes such as MEL-DFW and BNE-DFW


There should be 1 maybe 2 more routes to be announced next year for the last 2 I think unassigned 789s currently on order


You are technically correct, but the most accurate answer to the question asked (MEL/BNE-DFW) is that they will not be launched unless Qantas orders more 787s and/or the Sunrise aircraft arrive and shuffle some other routes around to the larger aircraft freeing up 787 capacity. The remaining 787 deliveries are replacing 747s one-for-one so there isn't any uncertainty about their future deployment.


Why I see AA doing these routes on 789 instead of QF.
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346fetish
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:33 am

BNE-ORD average of 12 PPDEW JUL18-JUN19
BNE-DFW average of 11 PPDEW JUL18-JUN19
Source: Star O&D

I get BNEORD will be stimulated and filled with lots of flow but still...such a small local market for a huge aircraft investment.
Last edited by 346fetish on Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:34 am

Obzerva wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
I wouldn't expect VA to use any HND slot (if given at all) considering their current situation financially.

In the (unlikely) case of VA entering Japan it would likely be in partnership with NH and at the same time replacing the HKG flights (as HNA no longer has any no clout (nor any money) in the VA boardroom).


Agree, HND would be a swap for HKG, would also help NH with their recently launched PER flight if there was at very least an interline between NH and VA on each other's domestic flights.


VA already have an interline with NH.

Back in my travel agent days I sold (VA)CBR-SYD(NH)-HND on several occasions.
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:40 am

a19901213 wrote:
New slots will be started from 29 Mar 2020 which is not far away from now, I expect some announcements made by Australia authority&Qantas very soon.

QF will most certainly start a new daytime departure flight from both Syd/HND which allows them to fully utilise their fleets so they don’t need to sit their planes in HND for 15HRS.

However I do wonder what aircraft will they be using. Not sure if there are still some slacks in their 789 in order to deploy them on the routes.


Why would QF not transfer both the BNE and MEL flights to HND if they could get 2 new slots? They could rotate the aircraft over HND to better utilise the fleet. They could also get the cost benefit of moving all ops to HND (leaving JQ at NRT).

I think it would be a mistake for VA to swap HKG for HND. They need to consolidate and cut loss making operations, not take on more risk by entering a new market which involves huge investment.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:53 am

QF742 wrote:
a19901213 wrote:
New slots will be started from 29 Mar 2020 which is not far away from now, I expect some announcements made by Australia authority&Qantas very soon.

QF will most certainly start a new daytime departure flight from both Syd/HND which allows them to fully utilise their fleets so they don’t need to sit their planes in HND for 15HRS.

However I do wonder what aircraft will they be using. Not sure if there are still some slacks in their 789 in order to deploy them on the routes.


Why would QF not transfer both the BNE and MEL flights to HND if they could get 2 new slots? They could rotate the aircraft over HND to better utilise the fleet. They could also get the cost benefit of moving all ops to HND (leaving JQ at NRT).

I think it would be a mistake for VA to swap HKG for HND. They need to consolidate and cut loss making operations, not take on more risk by entering a new market which involves huge investment.


My assumption is based on QF getting one slot only given VA will probably get one as well.

Also AJ himself stated that he wants another slot for SYD-HND.

I
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 12:29 pm

a19901213 wrote:
QF742 wrote:
a19901213 wrote:
New slots will be started from 29 Mar 2020 which is not far away from now, I expect some announcements made by Australia authority&Qantas very soon.

QF will most certainly start a new daytime departure flight from both Syd/HND which allows them to fully utilise their fleets so they don’t need to sit their planes in HND for 15HRS.

However I do wonder what aircraft will they be using. Not sure if there are still some slacks in their 789 in order to deploy them on the routes.


Why would QF not transfer both the BNE and MEL flights to HND if they could get 2 new slots? They could rotate the aircraft over HND to better utilise the fleet. They could also get the cost benefit of moving all ops to HND (leaving JQ at NRT).

I think it would be a mistake for VA to swap HKG for HND. They need to consolidate and cut loss making operations, not take on more risk by entering a new market which involves huge investment.


My assumption is based on QF getting one slot only given VA will probably get one as well.

Also AJ himself stated that he wants another slot for SYD-HND.

I


Where do you reckon VA would use theirs from MEL/BNE? Wonder where NH will send theirs? Tipping MEL, if they can get a a lot that aligns with HND, MEL is internationally slot constrained at certain peak periods.

A Segway and off topic I think for a carrier the size of VA that’s their weakness - they shouldn’t have tried to be a key carrier up and down the east coast. QF owned SYD, so why try compete. Why not own BNE or MEL? But that was 10years ago, no QF has both rather nicely wrapped up too.

In the AA rumours around AU announcements it was mentioned they wanted to wrap up with a Pacific/Asia announcement- hopefully AAs HND slots now mean we can hear more around their AU/NZ QF plans!
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 12:53 pm

346fetish wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

There should be 1 maybe 2 more routes to be announced next year for the last 2 I think unassigned 789s currently on order


You are technically correct, but the most accurate answer to the question asked (MEL/BNE-DFW) is that they will not be launched unless Qantas orders more 787s and/or the Sunrise aircraft arrive and shuffle some other routes around to the larger aircraft freeing up 787 capacity. The remaining 787 deliveries are replacing 747s one-for-one so there isn't any uncertainty about their future deployment.


Why I see AA doing these routes on 789 instead of QF.


It is extremely unlikely that AA could operate a 789 on DFW-MEL and make any money on it. Firstly their 789's are configured with 285 seats, have a smaller premium cabin and their longest route currently is LAX-SYD which is some 1300nm shorter than DFW-MEL. Even if QF operated the route they would need to block some seats at least for part of the year
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 1:00 pm

Qantas pilots say the airline is very ambitious to reach deal by end of the year. Talks only began last month and QF have not yet put forward an offer.

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/busine ... 52ms5.html
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 1:03 pm

EK413 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
Captdasbomb wrote:

What happened to the treat?


It operated with a 744, OEH did it.


Correct.

The B747 was the treat considering they’ll be retired next year. :(


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Missed a spotting opportunity. Was tracking OEE
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 1:04 pm

OK, so I have a few questions about HND:

1) Is this two additional pairs, or two total? My inclination is the latter, so only one additional pair, but time will tell.

2) Is there anything to suggest that the additional slots are for 07:00-22:00 or is that supposition?

3) Either way, it's pretty reasonable to assume that JAL will launch SYD-HND.

4) Assuming the additional slot pair is a daylight slot then 2x QF SYD-HND seems pretty likely given previous statements. There is no pressure to move MEL/BNE as they aren't competing against another carrier to HND. I categorically disagree though with whoever says there will be a daylight southbound. I would be prepared to put very good money on there been two overnight flights southbound, ~19:00 and ~22:00 departures. Northbound would be one overnight and one daylight. They have parked the aircraft all day in Tokyo for longer than I can remember, it was overnight in both directions to NRT as well. Clearly they aren't too concerned about the utilisation and the revenue premium of an overnight northbound must have been sufficient to not have the same daylight northbound as the other NRT flights.

5) VA aren't 'entitled' to a slot. The additional route authorities would be coordinated by the IASC, who would make them available to any Australian airline that applied for them. Frankly I can't see anyone but Qantas making an application. Australia would have no obligation to award them to different airlines beyond domestic competition law. The authorities are distributed in a much more opaque manner by the Japanese authorities for their carriers, but Australia's domestic regulations and processes apply to the Australian authorities.
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 1:37 pm

Was in the international departure lounge at PER last night and the main thing I noticed was an archway of blue balloons at the NH departure gate. And a single photographer. Ho hum.
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getluv
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 2:12 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
OK, so I have a few questions about HND:

1) Is this two additional pairs, or two total? My inclination is the latter, so only one additional pair, but time will tell.

2) Is there anything to suggest that the additional slots are for 07:00-22:00 or is that supposition?

3) Either way, it's pretty reasonable to assume that JAL will launch SYD-HND.

4) Assuming the additional slot pair is a daylight slot then 2x QF SYD-HND seems pretty likely given previous statements. There is no pressure to move MEL/BNE as they aren't competing against another carrier to HND. I categorically disagree though with whoever says there will be a daylight southbound. I would be prepared to put very good money on there been two overnight flights southbound, ~19:00 and ~22:00 departures. Northbound would be one overnight and one daylight. They have parked the aircraft all day in Tokyo for longer than I can remember, it was overnight in both directions to NRT as well. Clearly they aren't too concerned about the utilisation and the revenue premium of an overnight northbound must have been sufficient to not have the same daylight northbound as the other NRT flights.

5) VA aren't 'entitled' to a slot. The additional route authorities would be coordinated by the IASC, who would make them available to any Australian airline that applied for them. Frankly I can't see anyone but Qantas making an application. Australia would have no obligation to award them to different airlines beyond domestic competition law. The authorities are distributed in a much more opaque manner by the Japanese authorities for their carriers, but Australia's domestic regulations and processes apply to the Australian authorities.


1) Two additional pairs for AU airlines. See Forbes article. Link

2) From the conjecture I’ve read, Australia has been given a day time landing and a before 2200 departure. Unfortunately, I can’t find anything that completely validates this using a google search.

3) 100% agree. The NH slot will probably be used for PER. Given the poor load factors NH had for June to Sydney, we won’t see any growth from either Japanese airlines.

4) Based on #3, QF’s lack of aircraft, conservative mindset, I still think consolidating ops to HND is a good bet. QF will definitely want both slots as it blocks VA from having the slots for at least five years. Merging ops into one location, closing down the NRT lounge, using NRT for seasonal growth will be very tempting to QF, especially when prices to Tokyo are not as they were historically (sub $700 sale fares are becoming more common), and the potential to increase KIX and make CTS permanent.

5) Agree.
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 2:42 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:

4) Assuming the additional slot pair is a daylight slot then 2x QF SYD-HND seems pretty likely given previous statements. There is no pressure to move MEL/BNE as they aren't competing against another carrier to HND. I categorically disagree though with whoever says there will be a daylight southbound. I would be prepared to put very good money on there been two overnight flights southbound, ~19:00 and ~22:00 departures. Northbound would be one overnight and one daylight. They have parked the aircraft all day in Tokyo for longer than I can remember, it was overnight in both directions to NRT as well. Clearly they aren't too concerned about the utilisation and the revenue premium of an overnight northbound must have been sufficient to not have the same daylight northbound as the other NRT flights.



Agree with 2 SYD-HND, don't necessarily see a need for either BNE/MEL to move to HND. The other thing to consider is the QF flights to NRT also help feed GK flights, while that is probably not a big deal and there is JQ to feed them as well. The following tweet was posted a little while ago by a QF pilot who I follow, he seems to think 2 787 on SYD-HND since the dugong is out. I guess the other question is if the 787 goes to HND, there wont be any slack in the fleet for JNB which would mean A388 on it, maybe with frequency reduced down from the currently 6 weekly down to 4-5 instead

https://twitter.com/Keg767/status/11685 ... 74849?s=20
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 2:50 pm

Ground staff, pilots, cabin crew generally get the news when the general public find out. Also the assumption seems to have been made on the basis that there was only going to be one slot available, not two which does change things.

Anyway, according to the Department of Infrastructure, the HND slots won't come into effect until NW20 and they are daytime slots.

JAPAN
From Northern Winter 2020:
Two (2) frequencies per day for passenger services during daytime hours to/from Haneda Airport.

Link
Last edited by getluv on Mon Sep 02, 2019 2:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 2:56 pm

smi0006 wrote:

Where do you reckon VA would use theirs from MEL/BNE? Wonder where NH will send theirs? Tipping MEL, if they can get a a lot that aligns with HND, MEL is internationally slot constrained at certain peak periods.

A Segway and off topic I think for a carrier the size of VA that’s their weakness - they shouldn’t have tried to be a key carrier up and down the east coast. QF owned SYD, so why try compete. Why not own BNE or MEL? But that was 10years ago, no QF has both rather nicely wrapped up too.

In the AA rumours around AU announcements it was mentioned they wanted to wrap up with a Pacific/Asia announcement- hopefully AAs HND slots now mean we can hear more around their AU/NZ QF plans!


I cant see VA operating to Japan atm, Scurrah seems committed to HKG however recent developments may change that. I will go out on a limb here and say once the 737MAX10's arrive it will be the beginning of the end of the A332's at VA. With 275 seats on the A332's I struggle to see where VA can operate them in Asia and make money.
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