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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 05, 2019 1:20 am

waoz1 wrote:
ben175 wrote:
waoz1 wrote:
ANA inaugural Perth service starts today

NH881 departs TYO around 11am local time


Great day for WA!


En route now - JA814A


Im in Japan right now. Perhaps it is a selection bias on my part but i seem to be seeing a lot of ANA ads for WA right now. Ads including videos too.
 
EBT
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 05, 2019 2:10 am

qf2220 wrote:
smi0006 wrote:
I am surprised however we haven’t seen more 789 ordered, perhaps Boeing is linking a rehash of the 789 prices with a sunrise order?


In my view its because QF is managing its debt ratings and won't go and throw a bunch of debt commitment on balance sheet that tanks that rating. They'll drip feed it on as old debt matures and is extinguished.

QF is far more prudent and professional in managing its balance sheet and prioritises that over the ego driven mega-order announcements of the Dixon et al era. Im surprised we havent raised this here but Peter Gregg, the CFO at the time of all these mega announcements has just gone down for bribery (or some sort of related crime) and is going to serve home detention for a while. Which possibly says something about how things were done at the time.


Agree with what you said, and I'll add that they are trying to manage their capex expectations for their shareholders. By doing their 787 orders in dribs and drabs, they are signalling that they aren't committing to large chunks of capital expenditure, even though their credit rating is investment-grade and their balance sheet, at least on current metrics, could handle it. It's interesting that most of the 787s have been paid for using cash rather than debt, while they continue to buy out the 737NGs and A320ceos coming off-lease as that helps back up their rating.

Shareholders would rather see more buybacks and dividends in the short-term rather than a huge runway (pardon the pun) of capital expenditure on new aircraft, although at some point that will come when they have to replace the 737NGs and get fully stuck into the A320neo delivery stream.

There is no doubt that QF will eventually end up with a large fleet of 787s as they got the pricing that they wanted and a large amount of flexibility from Boeing. At some point in the next decade the A330s will likely be replaced by either denser -9s or maybe -10s, but they will use the A330neo to drive a hard bargain from Chicago/Seattle.
 
moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 05, 2019 2:28 am

There is definitely some cap management going on.. but eventually everything needs to be replaced. And the narrowbody fleet in particular (last new 737 2014) is ageing, let alone the regional fleet.

In calendar 2020 you've got the last 3 QF 787s on order, plus the start of Jetstars 18 321LRs (not XLRs that's from FY2024) - with all 18 delivered over 24 months (prob A$2+bn at US$115m list less typical discounts for the 321s)

Then you've got Sunrise and the 36 321XLRs from 2024.

On the 787s - I'm in two minds.
QF has been clear it doesn't work for domestic - and I'd expect a decent sized 797 order to replace early 737s and the older 332s.

So it's really the 333s that are a possible 787 replacement. If QF goes Boeing for Sunrise then possibly more 787s.

If it goes Airbus then maybe not.
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 05, 2019 3:40 am

CraigAnderson wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Story on how Qantas is finally profitable again to LHR after making losses on the route for nearly 10 years

https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton ... fc7d4a289d


It's really unbelievable to think that Qantas flew double-daily to LHR (ex-SYD and MEL) for almost a decade and did so at a loss.


I saw a route prof report way back then and it was awash with red, and double digit millions red on those routes too - overall they were a mess.
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 05, 2019 3:48 am

FL420FT wrote:
Announced today internally to the Ops staff within the Qantas Campus ...

The QF 747's are staying now until the 2021 ..

I have no internal memo's or news articals to post as it was verbally communicated to the above staff, however I do trust my source.

Maybe as a result of the two extra HND slots made available to Australian based aisles announced a few days ago ?


Which ones? The 6 -ERs and what are left?
 
moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 05, 2019 4:46 am

qf2220 wrote:
FL420FT wrote:
Announced today internally to the Ops staff within the Qantas Campus ...

The QF 747's are staying now until the 2021 ..

I have no internal memo's or news articals to post as it was verbally communicated to the above staff, however I do trust my source.

Maybe as a result of the two extra HND slots made available to Australian based aisles announced a few days ago ?


Which ones? The 6 -ERs and what are left?
VH-OJU already scheduled for it's last flight this year (13 Oct). Then only the 6ERs left.

Any info on whether the announcement suggested all 6 were staying, or just some?

And if only staying another 12 months would suggest another top-up 789 order for 2021 delivery or a few Jetstar 788s coming over as they get 321LRs.
 
redroo
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 05, 2019 7:13 am

qf2220 wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Story on how Qantas is finally profitable again to LHR after making losses on the route for nearly 10 years

https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton ... fc7d4a289d


It's really unbelievable to think that Qantas flew double-daily to LHR (ex-SYD and MEL) for almost a decade and did so at a loss.


I saw a route prof report way back then and it was awash with red, and double digit millions red on those routes too - overall they were a mess.



Overall flying to London made a loss and was cancelled out by the flying to USA. Been that way for a long time, but it was seen as important to the brand and network to have London service.
 
smi0006
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 05, 2019 7:34 am

QF742 wrote:
I thought part of the reason to retire the 744s early was to avoid expensive maintenance requirements? How have they overcome this or are they just going to suck up the cost for the overall benefit?

I think it’s probably a smart idea to have slack in the fleet given A380 refurbishments currently underway.


My understanding is a significant retro fit is required to the fuel tanks, and this is an FAA directive on inertia systems for the fuel tanks. I would hazard a guess this was factory fitted to the 744ER and doesn’t need a retro fit thus why they are staying longer. I’m not a techno guy so will try google and find something.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 05, 2019 9:55 am

Scurrah: The option to sign up for a global alliance such as Star Alliance or SkyTeam remains on the table for the airline’s “future international network strategy”, but is far from a cure-all for the troubled airline (VA).

Although 'open' to the idea, it seems Scurrah shares most of the same views as his predecessor when it comes to the topic of major Airline alliances.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/virg ... or-skyteam
 
BAeRJ100
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 05, 2019 11:15 am

smi0006 wrote:
My understanding is a significant retro fit is required to the fuel tanks, and this is an FAA directive on inertia systems for the fuel tanks. I would hazard a guess this was factory fitted to the 744ER and doesn’t need a retro fit thus why they are staying longer. I’m not a techno guy so will try google and find something.


My understanding was that the FAA directive only applied to aircraft on the US register. The deadline for the system being installed, the reason behind UA and DL retiring their fleets, already passed nearly 2 years ago (almost a year ago for any airline granted an extension).
B737/738/739/744ER/752/753/763/77L/77W/788/789
A223/320/321/332/333/346/359/388
MD82/MD88/717/F100/RJ85/RJ100/146-100/200/300
E175/190/CRJ700/900
 
xiaotung
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 05, 2019 11:15 am

SCFlyer wrote:
Scurrah: The option to sign up for a global alliance such as Star Alliance or SkyTeam remains on the table for the airline’s “future international network strategy”, but is far from a cure-all for the troubled airline (VA).

Although 'open' to the idea, it seems Scurrah shares most of the same views as his predecessor when it comes to the topic of major Airline alliances.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/virg ... or-skyteam


His biggest problem is having both SQ and DL as their biggest partners. It's as if his predecessor deliberately picked one in each alliance so that they couldn't join either. One of a series of bad decisions from the beginning.
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 05, 2019 11:28 am

xiaotung wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
Scurrah: The option to sign up for a global alliance such as Star Alliance or SkyTeam remains on the table for the airline’s “future international network strategy”, but is far from a cure-all for the troubled airline (VA).

Although 'open' to the idea, it seems Scurrah shares most of the same views as his predecessor when it comes to the topic of major Airline alliances.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/virg ... or-skyteam


His biggest problem is having both SQ and DL as their biggest partners. It's as if his predecessor deliberately picked one in each alliance so that they couldn't join either. One of a series of bad decisions from the beginning.


The Delta JV was initiated under the predecessor's predecessor (aka BG). It was given final approval by 2011, a year into the predecessor's run. The SQ JV came a few months later, and SQ later bought the equity stake in 2012.

https://www.singaporeair.com/en_UK/in/m ... t2012-1801

https://www.virginaustralia.com/eu/en/a ... a-history/
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 05, 2019 11:58 pm

Does anyone know when (if) Thai Air Asia X will start sending the A330neo to BNE?
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waoz1
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 06, 2019 12:12 am

Perth airport about to perform upgrades on the dreaded stair gates at T1 as well as introducing a new partner Aspire departure lounge.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 06, 2019 12:54 am

SYD marks its 1 billionth passenger

https://australianaviation.com.au/2019/ ... nary-year/
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 06, 2019 12:55 am

Goodbye wrote:
Does anyone know when (if) Thai Air Asia X will start sending the A330neo to BNE?


Probably once they take delivery of more of them, the second one has just been delivered
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qf744fan
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 06, 2019 3:15 am

QF772 appears to be returning to PER immediately after take off. Keen to get an update as I don't often get flights over my office!

https://planefinder.net/flight/QFA772
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 06, 2019 3:22 am

ATSB has handed down the final report on a JQ incident where an aircraft landed with a deactivated thrust reverser due to a pin not being removed during overnight maintenance

https://australianaviation.com.au/2019/ ... -incident/
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 06, 2019 4:07 am

Qantas16 wrote:
rtav wrote:
No Water Cannon for ANA tonight, but a lovely send off by the ground crew - traditional Japanese send off waving!


Does anybody know what ground handler they are using in PER? I believe they use Menzies in SYD.


Dnata is doing the ground handling in PER for NH
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Thai77w
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 06, 2019 5:51 am

qf789 wrote:
Goodbye wrote:
Does anyone know when (if) Thai Air Asia X will start sending the A330neo to BNE?


Probably once they take delivery of more of them, the second one has just been delivered


They are only taking two for the time being.

BNE will see them soon. They planned to operate them into NRT, NGO and BNE initially.
Aircraft types I've been on: PA31,Q300,AT75,AT76,717,733,738,739ER,763,772,77E,773,77W,788,789,744,319,320,332,333,346,359,380
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 06, 2019 6:26 am

qf744fan wrote:
QF772 appears to be returning to PER immediately after take off. Keen to get an update as I don't often get flights over my office!

https://planefinder.net/flight/QFA772

The Australian reports the flight was hit by a large bird, probably an eagle: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/busine ... 22ce4a99b8

Michael
 
qf744fan
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 06, 2019 7:12 am

eamondzhang wrote:
qf744fan wrote:
QF772 appears to be returning to PER immediately after take off. Keen to get an update as I don't often get flights over my office!

https://planefinder.net/flight/QFA772

The Australian reports the flight was hit by a large bird, probably an eagle: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/busine ... 22ce4a99b8

Michael


Behind a paywall, but no worries. The headline solves the mystery. Will keep an eye out for more. Cheers muchly!
 
TasFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 06, 2019 7:56 am

TasFlyer wrote:
jjs1491 wrote:
VA reportedly "reviewing all routes" and likely to cut frequencies and limited performing routes. This decision is most likely a result of the airline's recent AUD$349.1 million loss.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-29/ ... s/11459666


Not the best article given the supposition that VA will drop ADL-HBA — a route they don't even fly! The only airline flying this route, JQ, is actually increasing services year-round by one flight per week, on Mondays, commencing NW19-20.

In fact, on the day VA announced their loss, additional frequencies were added over December and January on HBA-MEL, HBA-SYD, HBA-BNE, and LST-BNE. This is of a level similar to previous years, with the exception of no additional HBA-PER nor LST-MEL services yet. Furthermore, TT added flights on HBA-MEL over December and January too. Remember, this is in addition to more QF 717s and upgauges to 737s on HBA-SYD over NW19-20, as well as year-round JQ extras on HBA-SYD (three per week) and HBA-ADL (one per week) commencing NW19-20, so the Tasmanian market appears to be maintaining its growth despite the average downturn nationally.


Another free Virgin route review article

Mr Scurrah remained tight-lipped on which paths would face the chopping block, but he believed some routes would be pulled entirely from Virgin’s flight network.


Every route is under review, however one of the things I am keen to do is wait until John MacLeod, our new chief commercial officer, is here to validate some of the reviews under his experience.


When does John MacLeod arrive?
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 06, 2019 9:41 am

From the same article, I'll take that they'll be keeping their owned 77W for the LAX flights as long as they're keep continuing to get decent loads and that yields are "doing well" (per the CEO).

As for HKG, I see that Scurrah quoted the recent protests in HK as a 'reasonable' excuse to pull back (if not pull out entirely).
Short Haul International is very likely to be cut back considerably, especially the 'non-subsidised' Pacific routes facing poor loads.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 06, 2019 10:58 am

Thai77w wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Goodbye wrote:
Does anyone know when (if) Thai Air Asia X will start sending the A330neo to BNE?


Probably once they take delivery of more of them, the second one has just been delivered


They are only taking two for the time being.

BNE will see them soon. They planned to operate them into NRT, NGO and BNE initially.


Ah that's good. Flying with them in November and hoping to get on at least one A330neo either on the way over or on the way back.
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 06, 2019 10:26 pm

Yesterday saw the return of scheduled air service between Auckland and Norfolk Island, operated by Air Chathams on a Convair 580. Flights will operate once a week on Fridays.

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
ben175
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sat Sep 07, 2019 1:41 am

Does anyone know why QF has ceased its seasonal PER-AKL flying?
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sat Sep 07, 2019 2:04 am

ben175 wrote:
Does anyone know why QF has ceased its seasonal PER-AKL flying?


Aircraft availability or PER airport issues? The plan was to use an A330 AKL-PER-JNB or something last year but I think the planned JNB flight was postponed due PER airport and QF on going spat.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sat Sep 07, 2019 2:36 am

ben175 wrote:
Does anyone know why QF has ceased its seasonal PER-AKL flying?


Due to the going spat with PER which saw them want both the AKL and JNB flights to operate out of T1, QF reallocated the aircraft to extra services out of SYD instead.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sat Sep 07, 2019 2:42 am

JBusworth wrote:
ben175 wrote:
Does anyone know why QF has ceased its seasonal PER-AKL flying?


Due to the going spat with PER which saw them want both the AKL and JNB flights to operate out of T1, QF reallocated the aircraft to extra services out of SYD instead.


That is simply not true. Yes Perth Airport wanted JNB from T1 however AKL was part of the original agreement which included existing services (i.e. SIN and AKL) move from T1 to T3
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smi0006
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sat Sep 07, 2019 3:57 am

qf789 wrote:
JBusworth wrote:
ben175 wrote:
Does anyone know why QF has ceased its seasonal PER-AKL flying?


Due to the going spat with PER which saw them want both the AKL and JNB flights to operate out of T1, QF reallocated the aircraft to extra services out of SYD instead.


That is simply not true. Yes Perth Airport wanted JNB from T1 however AKL was part of the original agreement which included existing services (i.e. SIN and AKL) move from T1 to T3


What was Perth airports logic for JNB to have to operate out of T1? Seems an illogical application of the ASA.

Is there enough gates for T3 to handle - JNB/LHR and potentially long term CDG to have a bank style operation?

BNE-PER-JNB would make sense due to decent through traffic on VA/SA on this route. With SYD-PER-CDG, all all three east coast ports pax could clear immigration in SYD/MEL/BNE staying airside in PER. I’d imagine AKL would supply some decent feed for these routes also.

Hopefully QF and PAPL thaw their relationship, and plan longer term for decent interchangeable gates in the new terminal. PAPL have come a long way to working with their airline partners... but still need some work to do.
 
Captdasbomb
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sat Sep 07, 2019 7:17 am

smi0006 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
JBusworth wrote:

Due to the going spat with PER which saw them want both the AKL and JNB flights to operate out of T1, QF reallocated the aircraft to extra services out of SYD instead.


That is simply not true. Yes Perth Airport wanted JNB from T1 however AKL was part of the original agreement which included existing services (i.e. SIN and AKL) move from T1 to T3


What was Perth airports logic for JNB to have to operate out of T1? Seems an illogical application of the ASA.

Is there enough gates for T3 to handle - JNB/LHR and potentially long term CDG to have a bank style operation?

BNE-PER-JNB would make sense due to decent through traffic on VA/SA on this route. With SYD-PER-CDG, all all three east coast ports pax could clear immigration in SYD/MEL/BNE staying airside in PER. I’d imagine AKL would supply some decent feed for these routes also.

Hopefully QF and PAPL thaw their relationship, and plan longer term for decent interchangeable gates in the new terminal. PAPL have come a long way to working with their airline partners... but still need some work to do.


There’s enough gates at T3 international but from my understanding Qantas tried to get sneak in the JNB at the same times as QF9/10 so as not pay for the cost of Immigration & border control which subsidized by the State Government. I believe the Paris & German flights also qualify under the QF9/10 agreement if launched before the 2025 closure of the T3/T4
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sat Sep 07, 2019 2:54 pm

redroo wrote:
qf2220 wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:

It's really unbelievable to think that Qantas flew double-daily to LHR (ex-SYD and MEL) for almost a decade and did so at a loss.


I saw a route prof report way back then and it was awash with red, and double digit millions red on those routes too - overall they were a mess.



Overall flying to London made a loss and was cancelled out by the flying to USA. Been that way for a long time, but it was seen as important to the brand and network to have London service.


Made sense whilst QF and UA had a duopoly and could charge decent fares. but with VA/DL and a renewed NZ in the field, these profits shrank, and LHR needed to start paying its way.

Also the era of the ego that supported this sort of profitability management was no longer appropriate for the company.
 
Sydscott
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 09, 2019 12:17 am

IASC has opened a proceeding to allocate the Haneda slots.

https://www.iasc.gov.au/applications/index.aspx#JPN

No submissions received yet but the IASC wants to finalise the award of slots by October 31st so I'd say we'll see an application in the next couple of weeks from QF.
 
Boof
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 09, 2019 12:29 am

Good article today about VA and Scurrah’s challenges to rebuild. AFR is paywall but for some reason I was able to view it all so hopefully it’s unlocked for all:
https://www.afr.com/companies/transport ... t-20190903
Bring back Virgin Blue!
 
brucetiki
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 09, 2019 4:39 am

Another day of wild weather in Sydney, with the usual impacts at SYD
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 09, 2019 4:49 am

Boof wrote:
Good article today about VA and Scurrah’s challenges to rebuild. AFR is paywall but for some reason I was able to view it all so hopefully it’s unlocked for all:
https://www.afr.com/companies/transport ... t-20190903

I'm really fascinated watching how Scurrah plans to turn Virgin around. Can he replicate what Joyce has done at Qantas? or what Norris/Fyfe did at NZ?
What?
 
log0008
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 09, 2019 10:01 am

China Southern Melbourne A380 officially loaded

China Southern Airlines in last week’s schedule update filed aircraft changes for Guangzhou – Melbourne route, which sees the addition of Airbus A380 service. From Guangzhou, the A380 will operate on 1 of 3 daily flights, from 10JAN20 to 13FEB20.

CZ343 CAN0905 – 2130MEL 330 D
CZ643 CAN1815 – 0650+1MEL 330 D
CZ321 CAN2110 – 0940+1MEL 380 D

CZ644 MEL0840 – 1520CAN 330 D
CZ344 MEL1140 – 1800CAN 380 D
CZ322 MEL2330 – 0600+1CAN 330 D

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38...rvice-in-1q20/
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 09, 2019 10:51 am

aerohottie wrote:
Boof wrote:
Good article today about VA and Scurrah’s challenges to rebuild. AFR is paywall but for some reason I was able to view it all so hopefully it’s unlocked for all:
https://www.afr.com/companies/transport ... t-20190903

I'm really fascinated watching how Scurrah plans to turn Virgin around. Can he replicate what Joyce has done at Qantas? or what Norris/Fyfe did at NZ?


Me too. Surely simplification has to be what it is about. I can't read the article tho because of paywall...

Is it possible to run more than one brand on a single AOC?
 
patrickjp93
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 09, 2019 11:31 am

EBT wrote:
qf2220 wrote:
In my view its because QF is managing its debt ratings and won't go and throw a bunch of debt commitment on balance sheet that tanks that rating. They'll drip feed it on as old debt matures and is extinguished.

QF is far more prudent and professional in managing its balance sheet and prioritises that over the ego driven mega-order announcements of the Dixon et al era. Im surprised we havent raised this here but Peter Gregg, the CFO at the time of all these mega announcements has just gone down for bribery (or some sort of related crime) and is going to serve home detention for a while. Which possibly says something about how things were done at the time.


Agree with what you said, and I'll add that they are trying to manage their capex expectations for their shareholders. By doing their 787 orders in dribs and drabs, they are signalling that they aren't committing to large chunks of capital expenditure, even though their credit rating is investment-grade and their balance sheet, at least on current metrics, could handle it. It's interesting that most of the 787s have been paid for using cash rather than debt, while they continue to buy out the 737NGs and A320ceos coming off-lease as that helps back up their rating.

There is no doubt that QF will eventually end up with a large fleet of 787s as they got the pricing that they wanted and a large amount of flexibility from Boeing. At some point in the next decade the A330s will likely be replaced by either denser -9s or maybe -10s, but they will use the A330neo to drive a hard bargain from Chicago/Seattle.

I don't think the A330 NEO will be able to drive much negotiation. The 787 just IS the much more efficient plane to fly. That said, I think Qantas is also waiting for a 787 re-engine program before ordering a swathe of them. It's convenient for them if they can run the whole fleet on the same seating configuration efficiently. I.E., be able to run 250+ seats to Perth rather than just 211, and apply that config everywhere for easy swaps.

The 787 flights to LAX from Brisbane, Sydney, and Melbourne are all flying 100% full or shy maybe 1 premium seat pretty consistently. Time to squeeze in some more cattle ;)
 
patrickjp93
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 09, 2019 11:38 am

aerohottie wrote:
Boof wrote:
Good article today about VA and Scurrah’s challenges to rebuild. AFR is paywall but for some reason I was able to view it all so hopefully it’s unlocked for all:
https://www.afr.com/companies/transport ... t-20190903

I'm really fascinated watching how Scurrah plans to turn Virgin around. Can he replicate what Joyce has done at Qantas? or what Norris/Fyfe did at NZ?

Well, Joyce has been a bit more cutthroat on locking Virgin out of some markets and defending the London-Perth gateway monopoly. Virgin has neither the capital to go into a pressurized price war on the flights to the U.S. nor the real offerings through Singapore and Dubai to Europe.

Honestly I think VA will end up folding. The shareholders are too interested in buybacks rather than growth, and VA still has no new wide body order to supplant their 777-300ERs. By now they needed some 787s or A350s to replace those low-density 777s to start turning profit. Too little, too late.
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 10, 2019 2:18 am

patrickjp93 wrote:
aerohottie wrote:
Boof wrote:
Good article today about VA and Scurrah’s challenges to rebuild. AFR is paywall but for some reason I was able to view it all so hopefully it’s unlocked for all:
https://www.afr.com/companies/transport ... t-20190903

I'm really fascinated watching how Scurrah plans to turn Virgin around. Can he replicate what Joyce has done at Qantas? or what Norris/Fyfe did at NZ?

Well, Joyce has been a bit more cutthroat on locking Virgin out of some markets and defending the London-Perth gateway monopoly. Virgin has neither the capital to go into a pressurized price war on the flights to the U.S. nor the real offerings through Singapore and Dubai to Europe.

Honestly I think VA will end up folding. The shareholders are too interested in buybacks rather than growth, and VA still has no new wide body order to supplant their 777-300ERs. By now they needed some 787s or A350s to replace those low-density 777s to start turning profit. Too little, too late.

VA has never expressed any interest in flying to Europe with its own metal. Just like all European carriers except BA see no value in flying to AU with their metal, the business case for VA doing it makes no sense. Asian and Middle East carrier have a natural advantage through their well located hubs that AU or EU carriers cannot overcome. Of course, VA is also unlikely to ever be able to access LHR slots even if they wanted to. There will be no new allocation of LHR slots until the third runway actually happens and that could be years away. QF got given their slots decades ago when QF was the national flag carrier and well before the ridiculous prices we see now were a thing.

I don't see why VA would be looking for a new widebody order. Scurrah has yet to announce how much of a long-haul international presence he sees VA having going forward; it is possible that it will be LAX only, In addition the existing fleet is not old. The 77Ws are only 10 years old (basically the same age as QF's A380s) with low cycles so probably have another 10 years life in them. In addition, there is no secondhand market for 77Ws currently so selling is not an option for any airline at the moment. VA A332s average 6 years old which is about half the average age of QF's A330 fleet. They are also leased for another 5 years. The need to look for replacements for either type, if eventually required, is not urgent.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
patrickjp93
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 10, 2019 2:39 am

tullamarine wrote:
VA has never expressed any interest in flying to Europe with its own metal. Just like all European carriers except BA see no value in flying to AU with their metal, the business case for VA doing it makes no sense.

Other than "our local market is drying up THANKS to QF's own international offerings and single ticket bookings, so we'll either need the aggressively cheaper domestic product or we'll have to step up into the big leagues"...
Asian and Middle East carrier have a natural advantage through their well located hubs that AU or EU carriers cannot overcome.
You're joking. We have threads dedicated to the downturn and downfall of the ME3 discussing why this is materially NOT the case thanks to the 787, A350, and A330 NEO. Direct flight bypass is already hurting Emirates' business in AU and NZ, and it'll only get worse once the Trent 1000 issues get solved.

Of course, VA is also unlikely to ever be able to access LHR slots even if they wanted to. There will be no new allocation of LHR slots until the third runway actually happens and that could be years away. QF got given their slots decades ago when QF was the national flag carrier and well before the ridiculous prices we see now were a thing.

Irrelevant. All but 1 of the major London airports can handle the 787/A350/A330. IF VA ever wanted to target London, they'd be fine. They can get 5th Freedom through Singapore worst case. But their main prize is the Chinese market, which Qantas has skillfully been locking them out of.

I don't see why VA would be looking for a new widebody order. Scurrah has yet to announce how much of a long-haul international presence he sees VA having going forward; it is possible that it will be LAX only, In addition the existing fleet is not old. The 77Ws are only 10 years old (basically the same age as QF's A380s) with low cycles so probably have another 10 years life in them. In addition, there is no secondhand market for 77Ws currently so selling is not an option for any airline at the moment. VA A332s average 6 years old which is about half the average age of QF's A330 fleet. They are also leased for another 5 years. The need to look for replacements for either type, if eventually required, is not urgent.

You're joking. A) The 77Ws are only 70% full on 9-abreast guzzlers. B) They have expressed enormous interests in the AU-China market, for which they need much better offerings at lower prices than they currently have. C) VA is bleeding money thanks to high fuel prices on their inefficient planes.

They haven't turned a profit in years and aren't showing any ability to adapt or change to their market. If Scurrah is unconcerned, he needs to be fired.
 
moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 10, 2019 2:44 am

patrickjp93 wrote:
Well, Joyce has been a bit more cutthroat on locking Virgin out of some markets and defending the London-Perth gateway monopoly.

Honestly I think VA will end up folding. The shareholders are too interested in buybacks rather than growth.


Not in Qantas's interest to let Virgin fold as you'd undoubtedly get someone better funded pop up.

For now they can just keep the pressure on ensuring VA continues to struggle to have sufficient capital, knowing there is unlikely to be new funding from the shareholders.
 
patrickjp93
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 10, 2019 2:51 am

moa999 wrote:

Not in Qantas's interest to let Virgin fold as you'd undoubtedly get someone better funded pop up.

For now they can just keep the pressure on ensuring VA continues to struggle to have sufficient capital, knowing there is unlikely to be new funding from the shareholders.


Hard to see that happening unless it's a Chinese investor, which the Liberals will never allow. If VA fell to pieces I think Tony Fernandez would have the best shot at giving Qantas competition in the domestic market, but then he'd have to set up an Aussie subsidiary of Air Asia. The A320s from Tiger would be usable enough, and the A330s from VA would fit into their own fleet. Only issue there is the Aussies have no other flag carrier than Qantas for flying to the U.S.. That's not to say Air Canada and Delta won't happily pick up the spare traffic, but YVR is not ideal unless you're headed for NYC or vacationing in Canada itself.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 10, 2019 4:35 am

patrickjp93 wrote:

The 787 flights to LAX from Brisbane, Sydney, and Melbourne are all flying 100% full or shy maybe 1 premium seat pretty consistently. Time to squeeze in some more cattle ;)


patrickjp93 wrote:
You're joking. A) The 77Ws are only 70% full on 9-abreast guzzlers.


Since you are posting your opinions as fact again either provide sources to your comments or they will be removed
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 10, 2019 4:36 am

Qantas flight operating SYD-CBR forced to return to SYD after a fight on board over a mobile phone

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australi ... spartanntp
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 10, 2019 4:44 am

Virgin to open new look lounge in ADL next year

https://www.executivetraveller.com/virg ... de-airport
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tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 10, 2019 4:48 am

VA has never expressed any interest in flying to Europe with its own metal. Just like all European carriers except BA see no value in flying to AU with their metal, the business case for VA doing it makes no sense.

Other than "our local market is drying up THANKS to QF's own international offerings and single ticket bookings, so we'll either need the aggressively cheaper domestic product or we'll have to step up into the big leagues"...

Even QF doesn't fly into Europe except LHR using its own metal. That is the whole reason behind the EK alliance as well as codeshares through SIN with airlines like KL. It is very hard to make money, the crewing costs are excessive and you will never get the range of destinations that a good hubbing arrangement in Asia or the Middle East offers. There is no money to be made heading to Europe anyway; fares between Europe and Australia have basically flatlined for 20 years which means, in real terms, they have dropped dramatically.

Asian and Middle East carrier have a natural advantage through their well located hubs that AU or EU carriers cannot overcome.
You're joking. We have threads dedicated to the downturn and downfall of the ME3 discussing why this is materially NOT the case thanks to the 787, A350, and A330 NEO. Direct flight bypass is already hurting Emirates' business in AU and NZ, and it'll only get worse once the Trent 1000 issues get solved.

None of the planes you cite can currently offer direct services from the Australian east cost to western Europe. QF are still trying to make the maths work on Sunrise and that will rely on a premium heavy concept with lots of existing Y pax moving over to other airlines or one-stop services. Most travel from Australia to Europe is on ME and Asian airlines. The only direct flight bypass you talk of is one flight per day from PER to LHR which two years after introduction no other airline has sought to bother trying to compete with.
Irrelevant. All but 1 of the major London airports can handle the 787/A350/A330. IF VA ever wanted to target London, they'd be fine. They can get 5th Freedom through Singapore worst case. But their main prize is the Chinese market, which Qantas has skillfully been locking them out of.

If you want to go to London, you need rights to LHR. Sure LGW can take you but ask airlines like GA and CI how hard it is to make London work when you haven't got a ticket to the main dance.

What possible benefit would VA create for itself by flying to London through SIN? There are multiple services per day already plying the route, over half of which VA already codeshares on.

QF has not locked VA out of the China market; the issue is the Chinese airlines have a much lower cost base and a much better selling network in China. It is very hard to beat them particularly as the routes are dominated with Chinese coming to AU, the numbers of Australians travelling the other way is much less.

You're joking. A) The 77Ws are only 70% full on 9-abreast guzzlers. B) They have expressed enormous interests in the AU-China market, for which they need much better offerings at lower prices than they currently have. C) VA is bleeding money thanks to high fuel prices on their inefficient planes.

I don't know that I'd call a 77W a gas guzzler; it uses more fuel/seat than a 789 maybe but the cost of ownership between a 10 year old 777 and a new 789 probably favours the former.

Have they expressed enormous interest in China? They've talked about it but I think for the reasons I mentioned above they don't believe they can get their costs under the Chinese carriers.

Once again, the A332 and 77W are a long way from inefficient planes. 787s and A350s use less fuel but that is only one part of the cost of ownership. It is the same reason why QF hasn't replaced all of their A330s with 787s; the A330s are currently the better business proposition. Aircraft are not iPhones; you don't replace them just because a newer shinier model has come onto the market.

You mention fuel which has spiked but it is still a long way under where it was a few years ago. The lack of a secondhand market for existing widebodies and difficulty in making the sums work on newer planes is why lots of airlines are holding onto their existing widebody fleets and why sales of the 77X, A35K and 78J have been so sluggish. A further spike in fuel prices may change the equation but such a spike would probably be accompanied by an economic downturn with the corresponding drop in demand again mucking up the maths.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
openskies88
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:10 am

patrickjp93 wrote:
You're joking. A) The 77Ws are only 70% full on 9-abreast guzzlers.


Yes, let's just ignore the BITRE data and come up with our own statistics. :roll:

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