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smi0006
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 12, 2019 7:49 am

tullamarine wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Obzerva wrote:


Hoping to pick up some transfer traffic that might have previously gone via HKG maybe?


Now you mention that it would be an ideal time for CZ to exploit the ongoing problems at HKG. CX has already announced they will reduce capacity for NW19/20 and have already cut or reduced some European and US routes, I do wonder what Australian services will be impacted. I suspect the 3 weekly CX133/142 to PER is likely to be chopped, we are also suppose to be seeing the A359 upgraded to A35K at the end of next month but wouldn't be surprised if this doesn't go ahead, their loads recently haven't been all that good, its clear the ongoing tensions in HKG is having an impact, we have already seen QF downgrade A333's to A332's and VA has reduced HKG flying. Could we see BNE, MEL or SYD with capacity reductions over the coming months?

Obviously, CX is suffering most but you'd expect to see both QF and VA dial back their flights into HKG if demand is tumbling which it appears to be. It is possible that VA will reduce their MEL flights and funnel through SYD until things stabilise. QF may do similar; they have seasonally increased capacity to HKG using A380s or 744s particularly over Chinese New Year. They will probably wait another few months before deciding whether they will do it again next year.


Where are QF sending their 333s to instead?

This could be a nice face saving exercise for VA to end one of their HKG services. I actually think SYD, I’ve always said VA should have focused on BNE/MEL and left SYD too QF. Back when QF was SYD focused would have been ideal... now new mojo QF has remembered MEL/BNE and seen significant growth... but I digress!

VA could drop SYD-HKG, and try win a HND slot- MEL-HND, along with MEL-HKG/LAX is starting to build a better offering out of MEL
Last edited by smi0006 on Thu Sep 12, 2019 8:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 12, 2019 8:00 am

smi0006 wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
qf789 wrote:

Now you mention that it would be an ideal time for CZ to exploit the ongoing problems at HKG. CX has already announced they will reduce capacity for NW19/20 and have already cut or reduced some European and US routes, I do wonder what Australian services will be impacted. I suspect the 3 weekly CX133/142 to PER is likely to be chopped, we are also suppose to be seeing the A359 upgraded to A35K at the end of next month but wouldn't be surprised if this doesn't go ahead, their loads recently haven't been all that good, its clear the ongoing tensions in HKG is having an impact, we have already seen QF downgrade A333's to A332's and VA has reduced HKG flying. Could we see BNE, MEL or SYD with capacity reductions over the coming months?

Obviously, CX is suffering most but you'd expect to see both QF and VA dial back their flights into HKG if demand is tumbling which it appears to be. It is possible that VA will reduce their MEL flights and funnel through SYD until things stabilise. QF may do similar; they have seasonally increased capacity to HKG using A380s or 744s particularly over Chinese New Year. They will probably wait another few months before deciding whether they will do it again next year.


Where are QF sending their 333s to instead?

This could be a nice face saving exercise for VA to end one of their HKG services. I actually think SYD, I’ve always said VA should have focused on BNE/MEL and left SYD you QF. Back when QF was SYD focused would have been ideal... now new mojo QF has remembered MEL/BNE and seen significant growth... but I digress! VA could drop SYD-HKG, and try win a HND slot- MEL-HND, along with HKG/LAX is starting to build a better offering out of MEL

CGK seems to be getting quite a few A333s at the moment, not too sure why because QF rarely fills its A332s except for Friday nights.
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Captdasbomb
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 12, 2019 2:24 pm

rtav wrote:
Captdasbomb wrote:
rtav wrote:
Must be ETOPS constraints - has to fly within range of YBAS.

Doesn't A332 have a 4 hrs ETOPS? Would have thought YPKG would be a nearer alternate

It normally would have something like ETOPS 240 but because of engine issues or constraints it probably had it reduced to 90mins which is recommended by ICAO


So it it shouldn't need to divert that far inland cause Kalgoorlie & Adelaide are within 90 mins either side of Perth & Melbourne.
 
TG788
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 13, 2019 2:42 am

Yesterday SA's A343 left Perth a smidge before 3pm heading for JNB as SA9281, and the outbound flight has been delayed/cancelled in the last few days. Does anyone know what the problem was? Thanks :)
 
DeltaB717
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 13, 2019 3:17 am

Captdasbomb wrote:
rtav wrote:
Captdasbomb wrote:
Doesn't A332 have a 4 hrs ETOPS? Would have thought YPKG would be a nearer alternate

It normally would have something like ETOPS 240 but because of engine issues or constraints it probably had it reduced to 90mins which is recommended by ICAO


So it it shouldn't need to divert that far inland cause Kalgoorlie & Adelaide are within 90 mins either side of Perth & Melbourne.


It looks to me like they planned ADL, ASP & LEA as alternates. Dispatching using MEL will usually affect the EDTO clearance of the aircraft and require, as someone else said, a 90min limit. I don't think either VA or QF would select KGI as an alternate for the A330 simply because, to the best of my knowledge, it doesn't have the equipment to handle an A330.
 
F100Flyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 13, 2019 4:20 am

Today sees the first temporary downgauge of QR900 DOH-PER to 77W (although I can’t remember how long until - I think Christmas?), whilst Adelaide has been upgauged to 77W since 06/09. How long does the upgauge for ADL last?
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 13, 2019 5:12 am

TG788 wrote:
Yesterday SA's A343 left Perth a smidge before 3pm heading for JNB as SA9281, and the outbound flight has been delayed/cancelled in the last few days. Does anyone know what the problem was? Thanks :)


SXA went tech on Wednesday and hence the outbound flight that night got cancelled. Yesterday's arriving SA280 turned around and operated the cancelled flight the night before as SA9281, while the aircraft that went tech operated last night's SA281, albeit 3 and half hours late. I presume a part had to be flown in from JNB to put the aircraft back in service.
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 13, 2019 5:21 am

F100Flyer wrote:
Today sees the first temporary downgauge of QR900 DOH-PER to 77W (although I can’t remember how long until - I think Christmas?), whilst Adelaide has been upgauged to 77W since 06/09. How long does the upgauge for ADL last?


ADL returns to A359 on 2 October, I presume the upgrade is linked to ADL hosting the World Routes conference next week

PER will see the 77W until about the 13th of December. The 77W is just a temporary thing to cover maintenance on the A388 fleet, I hope it doesn't affect QR's momentum in PER as they have outperformed EK for the whole of NS19 so far. On the positive side it will be nice to see a 77W back in PER.
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TG788
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 13, 2019 6:16 am

qf789 wrote:
TG788 wrote:
Yesterday SA's A343 left Perth a smidge before 3pm heading for JNB as SA9281, and the outbound flight has been delayed/cancelled in the last few days. Does anyone know what the problem was? Thanks :)


SXA went tech on Wednesday and hence the outbound flight that night got cancelled. Yesterday's arriving SA280 turned around and operated the cancelled flight the night before as SA9281, while the aircraft that went tech operated last night's SA281, albeit 3 and half hours late. I presume a part had to be flown in from JNB to put the aircraft back in service.


Thank you!
 
TasFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 13, 2019 8:46 am

Next Tuesday, September 17, marks the one-year anniversary of VA's three-weekly HBA-PER service. Unfortunately, being only three-weekly, this service will not operate on its Birthday.

I'm still holding out for a Hail-Mary announcement of additional services for the peak Christmas/New Year season; perhaps Tuesday is the day?
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 13, 2019 10:58 am

VA's proposed AU-HKG-LHR JV with VS has been green-lighted by ACCC, As route is currently dominated by CX, it is not surprising it got waved through.
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kriskim
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 13, 2019 11:00 am

EK applies to end BNE-SIN-DXB service:

From The Straits Times:
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/ ... -reviewing

Unsure whether EK plans to introduce a direct service to replace the flight. The airline cites the service is causing “substantial losses”.
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tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 13, 2019 11:02 am

Silkair have decided to move its entire grounded MAX fleet from humid SIN to dry storage in ASP. This is a pretty clear indication that SQ don't expect the MAX fleet to be back in the air anytime soon.

CASA has approved the relocation but planes are not allowed to fly above 20000 feet and have to have the flaps partly deployed all the time so MCAS cannot activate. That seems a fairly inefficient trim so I don't know if the fleet can make it to ASP without a stop.
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tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 13, 2019 11:05 am

kriskim wrote:
EK applies to end BNE-SIN-DXB service:

From The Straits Times:
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/ ... -reviewing

Unsure whether EK plans to introduce a direct service to replace the flight. The airline cites the service is causing “substantial losses”.

I'm not surprised. The current timing into and out of BNE is terrible. I doubt EK will bother replacing it with a direct service and just leave its BNE service as a single daily A380.

I'm sort of surprised the EK SIN-MEL-SIN rotation survives. The 77W is on the ground in MEL for nearly 18 hours and QF doesn't give EK much traffic as EK405 departs within an hour of QF37.
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 13, 2019 11:44 am

tullamarine wrote:
kriskim wrote:
EK applies to end BNE-SIN-DXB service:

From The Straits Times:
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/ ... -reviewing

Unsure whether EK plans to introduce a direct service to replace the flight. The airline cites the service is causing “substantial losses”.

I'm not surprised. The current timing into and out of BNE is terrible. I doubt EK will bother replacing it with a direct service and just leave its BNE service as a single daily A380.


EK430/431 would presumably continue to operate so it would be 388 + 77W. I'd expect the second service to be re-timed to reflect EK408/409 as that feeds a much larger bank at DXB than EK430, although the later morning arrival of EK431 is great for Southern and Eastern Europe.
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 13, 2019 6:54 pm

tullamarine wrote:
VA's proposed AU-HKG-LHR JV with VS has been green-lighted by ACCC, As route is currently dominated by CX, it is not surprising it got waved through.


link to the story

https://australianaviation.com.au/2019/ ... rtnership/
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Velocity7
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 13, 2019 9:53 pm

qf789 wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
VA's proposed AU-HKG-LHR JV with VS has been green-lighted by ACCC, As route is currently dominated by CX, it is not surprising it got waved through.


link to the story

https://australianaviation.com.au/2019/ ... rtnership/


Somewhat surprised at SQ @ 11% share of the traffic. I would have thought they'd be higher than that given the volume of flights they have into AU and onward connections to UK via SIN and they are a long term entrenched player in the market here. Interesting.
 
aerohottie
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 13, 2019 10:14 pm

Velocity7 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
VA's proposed AU-HKG-LHR JV with VS has been green-lighted by ACCC, As route is currently dominated by CX, it is not surprising it got waved through.


link to the story

https://australianaviation.com.au/2019/ ... rtnership/


Somewhat surprised at SQ @ 11% share of the traffic. I would have thought they'd be higher than that given the volume of flights they have into AU and onward connections to UK via SIN and they are a long term entrenched player in the market here. Interesting.


I think the point to remember, or at least keep in context, is that although SQ operates quite a number of flights between AU and SIN, onward connections aren't concentrated to the UK, but are spread across connecting flights to other European, Middle-eastern, African and Asian ports.
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getluv
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sat Sep 14, 2019 4:20 pm

FJ isn’t happy with QF having their own SYD-NAN flights.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/compani ... 52rbk.html

Strong words from the FJ CEO: “Qantas’ sudden flip from ally to adversary has been very damaging for Fiji Airways. It is competing aggressively, actively directing passengers onto Qantas and Jetstar services.”

I would say FJ got complacent with their own expansion into Australia. If one flight is hurting them, then FJ have got problems.
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:42 pm

Interesting as QF holds 40 something percent of the shares in FJ too
 
eamondzhang
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 12:03 am

qf2220 wrote:
Interesting as QF holds 40 something percent of the shares in FJ too

49% actually, but I thought QF was actively looking to offload the share.

Michael
 
Thatcher
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 12:05 am

getluv wrote:
FJ isn’t happy with QF having their own SYD-NAN flights.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/compani ... 52rbk.html

Strong words from the FJ CEO: “Qantas’ sudden flip from ally to adversary has been very damaging for Fiji Airways. It is competing aggressively, actively directing passengers onto Qantas and Jetstar services.”

I would say FJ got complacent with their own expansion into Australia. If one flight is hurting them, then FJ have got problems.


FJ's placing the A350 to SYD and to LAX might seem a bit aggressive to QF too, going up against their TPAC services. FJ have long been a budget TPAC option, and now with a brilliant Y-friendly aircraft.
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SYDSpotter
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 1:22 am

eamondzhang wrote:
49% actually, but I thought QF was actively looking to offload the share.

Michael


46%

getluv wrote:
Qantas’ sudden flip from ally to adversary has been very damaging for Fiji Airways. It is competing aggressively, actively directing passengers onto Qantas and Jetstar services


Did he think QF would direct passengers to FJ once they started their own services :? :? :?
QF's investment in FJ is quite small in $$ terms, so QF are better off making money through their own services rather than indirectly through their investment in FJ where the benefits won't necessarily flow through (just ask EY :duck: )
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moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 1:38 am

And I'd think QF would pull more pax from VA versus FJ.
Seasonal route to make money for QF when lesser business domestic demand.
 
eamondzhang
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 1:45 am

SYDSpotter wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:
49% actually, but I thought QF was actively looking to offload the share.

Michael


46%


Thanks, for some reason I was still thinking the old percentage - IIRC it was 49% long time ago.

Michael
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:12 am

This is a bit of a storm in a tea-cup. Qantas still send the majority of Fiji bound passengers booked on a QF code on FJ metal rather than their own.

Entering NAN was low hanging fruit as O&D fares are comparably very high. It is not unusual to see NAN fares higher than most destinations in Asia despite being 3-5 hours closer. I've also seen FJ charge more for SYD-NAN than SYD-NAN-SFO on the same dates.

I think FJ are just unhappy for any additional competition that adds capacity on Australia-Fiji routes. Fares will come down slightly, especially over the summer peak when QF add more capacity, but really this is just a function of the market and they would be naive to think that they could sustain the fares they have been attracting over the past couple of years without attracting more competition.

The conundrum for FJ is their high yields on Australian and Pacific Island flights all but subsidise their long haul network.
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:23 am

Thatcher wrote:
FJ have long been a budget TPAC option, and now with a brilliant Y-friendly aircraft.


IMHO they are already a very compelling TPAC option.

Go back 10-15 years when QF and UA had a duopoly, with fares to match, FJ were the backpacker express to the USA, with cheap fares but clapped out old 747s that really were stuck in the early 1990s.

These days the excess non-stop capacity has brought down direct fares considerably, so there is less motivation to go through NAN (or AKL for that matter) but FJ offer a very, very good product in Economy. Their A330s are comfortable aircraft and their service is very good with friendly crew and decent food. I flew them SYD-NAN-BNE last year, incidentally booked as a QF code, and was very impressed. I had relatively low expectations but after my experience would definitely consider them to the USA if the price was right.

As an aside the Fiji Airways lounge in NAN is very good, significantly better than the Qantas Intertaional Business lounges in Sydney and Melbourne, and that would make for a pleasant layover for Qantas Gold and above frequeng flyers.
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DavidByrne
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:45 am

Thatcher wrote:
FJ's placing the A350 to SYD and to LAX might seem a bit aggressive to QF too, going up against their TPAC services. FJ have long been a budget TPAC option, and now with a brilliant Y-friendly aircraft.

I hardly think that upgrading from an A330 to an A350 on a route QF doesn't serve with its own metal could be regarded as "aggressive". IIRC QF codeshare on NAN-LAX, so theoretically should be pleased to be able to offer a better product on the route. Or is this no longer the case?
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ZK-NBT
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:48 am

DavidByrne wrote:
Thatcher wrote:
FJ's placing the A350 to SYD and to LAX might seem a bit aggressive to QF too, going up against their TPAC services. FJ have long been a budget TPAC option, and now with a brilliant Y-friendly aircraft.

I hardly think that upgrading from an A330 to an A350 on a route QF doesn't serve with its own metal could be regarded as "aggressive". IIRC QF codeshare on NAN-LAX, so theoretically should be pleased to be able to offer a better product on the route. Or is this no longer the case?


I thought FJ had used all of its allocated seats in the bilateral? Am I mistaken or was this amended?
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:51 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
Thatcher wrote:
FJ have long been a budget TPAC option, and now with a brilliant Y-friendly aircraft.


IMHO they are already a very compelling TPAC option.

Go back 10-15 years when QF and UA had a duopoly, with fares to match, FJ were the backpacker express to the USA, with cheap fares but clapped out old 747s that really were stuck in the early 1990s.

These days the excess non-stop capacity has brought down direct fares considerably, so there is less motivation to go through NAN (or AKL for that matter) but FJ offer a very, very good product in Economy. Their A330s are comfortable aircraft and their service is very good with friendly crew and decent food. I flew them SYD-NAN-BNE last year, incidentally booked as a QF code, and was very impressed. I had relatively low expectations but after my experience would definitely consider them to the USA if the price was right.

As an aside the Fiji Airways lounge in NAN is very good, significantly better than the Qantas Intertaional Business lounges in Sydney and Melbourne, and that would make for a pleasant layover for Qantas Gold and above frequeng flyers.


FJ had the old ex-SQ/AN 744s in the 2000s and before that the "old workhorse" ex-QF 742s that had a more colourful livery.

The configs on the old ex-QF 742s and the ex SQ/AN 744s were very Y heavy, suggesting FJ were pretty much aiming for the low yielding crowd back in the day.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 3:00 am

SYDSpotter wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:
49% actually, but I thought QF was actively looking to offload the share.

Michael


46%

getluv wrote:
Qantas’ sudden flip from ally to adversary has been very damaging for Fiji Airways. It is competing aggressively, actively directing passengers onto Qantas and Jetstar services


Did he think QF would direct passengers to FJ once they started their own services :? :? :?
QF's investment in FJ is quite small in $$ terms, so QF are better off making money through their own services rather than indirectly through their investment in FJ where the benefits won't necessarily flow through (just ask EY :duck: )


Ive always wondered why strategic discussions haven't lead to FJ becoming a Jetstar brand. Im sure they've happened but not sure why they havent gone in that direction. Strategic views of the Fijiian government (the other shareholder) id suspect to be the main reason of course.
 
smi0006
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 3:04 am

getluv wrote:
FJ isn’t happy with QF having their own SYD-NAN flights.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/compani ... 52rbk.html

Strong words from the FJ CEO: “Qantas’ sudden flip from ally to adversary has been very damaging for Fiji Airways. It is competing aggressively, actively directing passengers onto Qantas and Jetstar services.”

I would say FJ got complacent with their own expansion into Australia. If one flight is hurting them, then FJ have got problems.


Such a strange relationship- is there any other carrier who would publicly admonish their owner like FJ does? Clearly they don’t want money from QF for further investment... Im sure FJ get a bit of feed from QF domestically also.

As I recall QF tried to unload their share, but couldn’t find any buyers and it got a bit ugly. Doesn’t sound like things have thawed at all. Sounds like FJ want rid of QF as an owner and profits to go back to the Fijian government. I assume QF don’t have a seat on the board, and little actually control?

I’d say QF flights to NAN like HNL and DPS are key to allowing people to burn off millions of points per year. Something hard to do on FJ
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 3:11 am

DavidByrne wrote:
Thatcher wrote:
FJ's placing the A350 to SYD and to LAX might seem a bit aggressive to QF too, going up against their TPAC services. FJ have long been a budget TPAC option, and now with a brilliant Y-friendly aircraft.

I hardly think that upgrading from an A330 to an A350 on a route QF doesn't serve with its own metal could be regarded as "aggressive". IIRC QF codeshare on NAN-LAX, so theoretically should be pleased to be able to offer a better product on the route. Or is this no longer the case?


QF do codeshare on NAN-LAX but the option via NAN is only available on fares S and higher. Very little QF traffic to the US flows that way.

In comparison FJ, on their own code, offer some very compelling one-stop fares which potentially draw down yields for all operators. Adding more capacity via NAN is not going to help with Aus-US yields which are already at all time lows.
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lessredtape
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 4:05 am

recently Nauru Airlines has got into a bit of a mess. Old retired CEO has been brought back this week & has already sacked 2 senior staff.

My question is, with their Australian AOC & Australian registered aircraft, why hasn't some venture capitalists or ? gone to Nauru govt & said, we'll buy airline off you, guarantee a minimum number of services to Nauru & wherever they fly to now, upgrade their fleet to say newer 737s & start doing FIFO or routes where yields are good.

Their old 733 fleet is apparently very "tired".
 
lessredtape
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 4:09 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
Thatcher wrote:
FJ have long been a budget TPAC option, and now with a brilliant Y-friendly aircraft.


IMHO they are already a very compelling TPAC option.

Go back 10-15 years when QF and UA had a duopoly, with fares to match, FJ were the backpacker express to the USA, with cheap fares but clapped out old 747s that really were stuck in the early 1990s.

These days the excess non-stop capacity has brought down direct fares considerably, so there is less motivation to go through NAN (or AKL for that matter) but FJ offer a very, very good product in Economy. Their A330s are comfortable aircraft and their service is very good with friendly crew and decent food. I flew them SYD-NAN-BNE last year, incidentally booked as a QF code, and was very impressed. I had relatively low expectations but after my experience would definitely consider them to the USA if the price was right.

As an aside the Fiji Airways lounge in NAN is very good, significantly better than the Qantas Intertaional Business lounges in Sydney and Melbourne, and that would make for a pleasant layover for Qantas Gold and above frequeng flyers.
FJ apparently got the 2 Ansett 744s owned by SQ for a song. Who wanted 744s after SEP11. They must have said to SQ, we'd love to lease them, but have no money.
 
travelhound
Posts: 1865
Joined: Fri May 23, 2008 9:13 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 4:13 am

If I remember correctly, QF objected to the name change to Fiji Air. gain, if I remember correctly as a consequence they relinquished their seat on the board.

If QF are a passive investor, Fiji Air should not have any issues with QF competing with them.
 
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SCFlyer
Posts: 289
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:35 am

According to today's news.com.au media, VA is looking/investigating at buying back the 35% of Affinity's stake in VFF.
No idea where the money is coming from (IF it occurs) as the current (complicated) shareholders are NOT expected to help out.

Source: https://www.news.com.au/world/breaking- ... 506335ec65
 
tullamarine
Posts: 2140
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 1999 1:14 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:03 am

SCFlyer wrote:
According to today's news.com.au media, VA is looking/investigating at buying back the 35% of Affinity's stake in VFF.
No idea where the money is coming from (IF it occurs) as the current (complicated) shareholders are NOT expected to help out.

Source: https://www.news.com.au/world/breaking- ... 506335ec65

I doubt the acquisition would be funded from shareholder capital. Despite a lot of doom and gloom VA has been cleaning up its debt facilities and already has funds on hand to pay out the USD debentures falling due later this year. They have an undrawn AUD facility they could call upon to fund this acquisition particularly as the MAX acquisitions have been deferred for 3 years. 100% ownership of Velocity would also mean that VA could given a charge over Velocity as security for any loan.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
747m8te
Posts: 429
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2008 10:14 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 8:34 am

tullamarine wrote:
kriskim wrote:
EK applies to end BNE-SIN-DXB service:

From The Straits Times:
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/ ... -reviewing

Unsure whether EK plans to introduce a direct service to replace the flight. The airline cites the service is causing “substantial losses”.

I'm not surprised. The current timing into and out of BNE is terrible. I doubt EK will bother replacing it with a direct service and just leave its BNE service as a single daily A380.

I'm sort of surprised the EK SIN-MEL-SIN rotation survives. The 77W is on the ground in MEL for nearly 18 hours and QF doesn't give EK much traffic as EK405 departs within an hour of QF37.


EK are currently 3x daily to Brisbane...2x BNE-DXB (EK435 with an A380 & EK431 with the 77W) plus the 1x BNE-SIN-DXB (EK433 with the 77W). If they operate the don't replace the BNE-SIN-DXB with a third direct flight, then maybe they will upgauge EK431 and just make BNE double daily with the A380.
Flown on:
DHC8Q200,DHC8Q300,DHC8Q400, EMB145,E170,E175,E190, A319,A320,A321,A332,A333,A343,A380, MD80, B712,B733,B734,B737,B738,B743,B744,B744ER,B762,B763,B77W
 
getluv
Posts: 515
Joined: Thu Jun 11, 2015 12:11 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 9:09 am

qf2220 wrote:
SYDSpotter wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:
49% actually, but I thought QF was actively looking to offload the share.

Michael


46%

getluv wrote:
Qantas’ sudden flip from ally to adversary has been very damaging for Fiji Airways. It is competing aggressively, actively directing passengers onto Qantas and Jetstar services


Did he think QF would direct passengers to FJ once they started their own services :? :? :?
QF's investment in FJ is quite small in $$ terms, so QF are better off making money through their own services rather than indirectly through their investment in FJ where the benefits won't necessarily flow through (just ask EY :duck: )


Ive always wondered why strategic discussions haven't lead to FJ becoming a Jetstar brand. Im sure they've happened but not sure why they havent gone in that direction. Strategic views of the Fijiian government (the other shareholder) id suspect to be the main reason of course.


Fiji is by all means a premium leisure destination hence why JQ has a relatively small presence in Fiji. I know super wealthy people loving returning to Fiji but for the average person there is more value for money to be found elsewhere.

I honestly think the QF move to start SYD-NAN was more about preventing VA from taking the slots up from the bilateral agreement. It was probably one of the few destinations where VA was performing well. However, QF's focus on leisure destinations in recent years seems to working well and they would have a good idea how much revenue they were losing to FJ through their codeshare agreement.

tullamarine wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
According to today's news.com.au media, VA is looking/investigating at buying back the 35% of Affinity's stake in VFF.
No idea where the money is coming from (IF it occurs) as the current (complicated) shareholders are NOT expected to help out.

Source: https://www.news.com.au/world/breaking- ... 506335ec65

I doubt the acquisition would be funded from shareholder capital. Despite a lot of doom and gloom VA has been cleaning up its debt facilities and already has funds on hand to pay out the USD debentures falling due later this year. They have an undrawn AUD facility they could call upon to fund this acquisition particularly as the MAX acquisitions have been deferred for 3 years. 100% ownership of Velocity would also mean that VA could given a charge over Velocity as security for any loan.


When you take out the shares issued to HNA/Nashan, VA are still losing cash year on year. Tiger and VAI profit margins are negative, and while VA Domestic is positive they're barely covering the losses of VAI and TT. Even though they're about to pay off a large chunk of debt, their debt is still growing and it's going to be a tough year a head for them given the low AUD and the average outlook in the domestic market.

In saying that buying back the 35% makes a lot of sense as its part of the business that has better prospects. Still it's a bitter pill and showcases how bad JB was for VA. I mean, paying $700M for something you sold $335M a few years before doesn't look good.
I'm that bad type.
 
timtam
Posts: 247
Joined: Tue Nov 19, 2013 2:02 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 11:59 am

Maybe Fiji Airlines is not paying dividends to its shareholders including Qantas.

It paid its first dividend in 7 years to shareholders in 2015 which was less than 10% of its profit. Can not see any mention of it paying dividends after that date.

The airline might be run with a focus on the benefits for Fiji and therefore would rather keep its cash under its control and within Fiji.
 
tullamarine
Posts: 2140
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 1999 1:14 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 11:13 pm

With the attacks in Saudi Arabia aircraft fuel has spiked 20% over the weekend; this will test the fuel cost models adopted by airlines around the world.

QF and VA have had differing hedging strategies in recent years with VA being more aggressive but in its latest results VA announced that it had hedged 90% of its FY20 fuel requirements indicating a much more conservative approach than 3 or 4 years ago. QF have typically been pretty good with its hedging strategies though, as far as I can tell, didn't disclose what percentage of its current year fuel costs were already hedged.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
tullamarine
Posts: 2140
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 1999 1:14 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 11:16 pm

VA has confirmed it is buying back its shares in Velocity from Affinity subject to FIRB approval. Price is $700M with settlement before the end the year.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
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CraigAnderson
Posts: 296
Joined: Fri Jan 05, 2018 12:28 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 16, 2019 1:03 am

Weekend media rumour by AFR proved to be on the money with Virgin Australia buying back Affinity's 35 per cent stake in Velocity Frequent Flyer for $700m. Now Scurrah just needs to find the money. I think JB has burned out all favours from VA's shareholder airlines, if Scurrah goes to pass the plate around this time it'll come back empty.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/virg ... uent-flyer
 
tullamarine
Posts: 2140
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 1999 1:14 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 16, 2019 1:24 am

CraigAnderson wrote:
Weekend media rumour by AFR proved to be on the money with Virgin Australia buying back Affinity's 35 per cent stake in Velocity Frequent Flyer for $700m. Now Scurrah just needs to find the money. I think JB has burned out all favours from VA's shareholder airlines, if Scurrah goes to pass the plate around this time it'll come back empty.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/virg ... uent-flyer

I assume the funding to buyback the Velocity shares is already in place. It is unlikely the VAH board would contract for the purchase otherwise. VA has sufficient undrawn AUD debt facilities to cover the purchase so it is unlikely it will be funded via capital.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
moa999
Posts: 551
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:37 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 16, 2019 2:03 am

Will see. Announcement says subject to funding and FIRB.

I'd assumed FIRB meant an application by a foreign shareholder to increase their stake (and they've probably agreed to at least partially sub-underwrite any raising)

If it was from cash and debt funding, I'd have thought they would have just said that.
 
Boof
Posts: 160
Joined: Wed Apr 16, 2008 12:16 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 16, 2019 3:37 am

moa999 wrote:
Will see. Announcement says subject to funding and FIRB.

I'd assumed FIRB meant an application by a foreign shareholder to increase their stake (and they've probably agreed to at least partially sub-underwrite any raising)

If it was from cash and debt funding, I'd have thought they would have just said that.

80% of VA is owned by foreign investors. I’m sure the FIRB would want a say in that 80% spending $700 million regardless of where it comes from.
Bring back Virgin Blue!
 
NTLDaz
Posts: 360
Joined: Sun Aug 21, 2011 7:56 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 16, 2019 4:07 am

Boof wrote:
moa999 wrote:
Will see. Announcement says subject to funding and FIRB.

I'd assumed FIRB meant an application by a foreign shareholder to increase their stake (and they've probably agreed to at least partially sub-underwrite any raising)

If it was from cash and debt funding, I'd have thought they would have just said that.

80% of VA is owned by foreign investors. I’m sure the FIRB would want a say in that 80% spending $700 million regardless of where it comes from.


Exactly right. VA is a foreign entity so needs FIRB approval.
 
zkncj
Posts: 3262
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 16, 2019 5:14 am

lessredtape wrote:
recently Nauru Airlines has got into a bit of a mess. Old retired CEO has been brought back this week & has already sacked 2 senior staff.

My question is, with their Australian AOC & Australian registered aircraft, why hasn't some venture capitalists or ? gone to Nauru govt & said, we'll buy airline off you, guarantee a minimum number of services to Nauru & wherever they fly to now, upgrade their fleet to say newer 737s & start doing FIFO or routes where yields are good.

Their old 733 fleet is apparently very "tired".


Ironically they have some good of the newest 733s out there they took an couple of 737-319s from NZ which were 1999 builds (NZ took the last couple of 733s).

In contrast Qantas oldest 738 was delivered in January 2002, so for the scale/tier of Air Nauru an 1999 aircraft isn’t that bad.
 
zkncj
Posts: 3262
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 16, 2019 5:14 am

lessredtape wrote:
recently Nauru Airlines has got into a bit of a mess. Old retired CEO has been brought back this week & has already sacked 2 senior staff.

My question is, with their Australian AOC & Australian registered aircraft, why hasn't some venture capitalists or ? gone to Nauru govt & said, we'll buy airline off you, guarantee a minimum number of services to Nauru & wherever they fly to now, upgrade their fleet to say newer 737s & start doing FIFO or routes where yields are good.

Their old 733 fleet is apparently very "tired".


Ironically they have some good of the newest 733s out there they took an couple of 737-319s from NZ which were 1999 builds (NZ took the last couple of 733s).

In contrast Qantas oldest 738 was delivered in January 2002, so for the scale/tier of Air Nauru an 1999 aircraft isn’t that bad.
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