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cam747
Posts: 51
Joined: Thu Sep 15, 2011 12:25 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 16, 2019 8:56 am

getluv wrote:
Still it's a bitter pill and showcases how bad JB was for VA. I mean, paying $700M for something you sold $335M a few years before doesn't look good.


It's rarely that simple. 35% of VFF is still 35%, Velocity is just double the value it was in 2014. I don't know the intricacies of the deal with Affinity, but no doubt they provided capital that couldn't be secured elsewhere at the time. Maybe Affinity also provided Virgin other support to help grow Velocity and double its value in five years.
 
SYDSpotter
Posts: 788
Joined: Tue Oct 30, 2012 9:10 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 16, 2019 9:16 am

tullamarine wrote:
I assume the funding to buyback the Velocity shares is already in place. It is unlikely the VAH board would contract for the purchase otherwise. VA has sufficient undrawn AUD debt facilities to cover the purchase so it is unlikely it will be funded via capital.


They only have a net $296.2m in undrawn facilities as at 30 June 2019 (per Annual results presentation).

The commentary in the AFR quotes the ratings agencies as saying they would prefer the acquisition to be equity funded, but noted that VA had the "balance sheet capacity" to fund the acquisition via debt.
319_320_321_332_333_388 / 734_737_738_743_744_762_763_772_773_77W_788_789
 
brucetiki
Posts: 183
Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:36 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 16, 2019 9:53 am

QR to bring the A350-1000 to PER and ADL?

https://simpleflying.com/qatar-a350-100 ... RnhmtriW2Y
 
QF742
Posts: 153
Joined: Sat Aug 18, 2018 1:00 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 16, 2019 9:55 am

With the approval (or near approval) of the VA/VS JV through HKG, this does seem to cement for me that VA will not be going after the HND slot.

I think with Scurrah now trying to stem loss making routes, starting a new international service would be high risk and not on the agenda. Presumably VA will try to focus HKG and see if they can lift profit through the new JV.

If this is the case, QF will be more than happy to take on both slots and I wouldn’t be surprised if, at the very least, QF applied for both.
 
FL420FT
Posts: 28
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:30 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:03 am

QF742 wrote:
With the approval (or near approval) of the VA/VS JV through HKG, this does seem to cement for me that VA will not be going after the HND slot.

I think with Scurrah now trying to stem loss making routes, starting a new international service would be high risk and not on the agenda. Presumably VA will try to focus HKG and see if they can lift profit through the new JV.

If this is the case, QF will be more than happy to take on both slots and I wouldn’t be surprised if, at the very least, QF applied for both.


I can confirm, from internally (nothing public sorry), that QF are chasing both HND slots for Australian based airlines.
 
qf002
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:06 am

QF742 wrote:
If this is the case, QF will be more than happy to take on both slots and I wouldn’t be surprised if, at the very least, QF applied for both.


These were always QF's slots. They are incredibly effective lobbyists and get exactly what they want 99% of the time, the rest of the process is just a show of rubber stamping.
 
Pcoder
Posts: 132
Joined: Mon Nov 23, 2015 10:44 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:05 am

In regards to the HND slots, there is always a chance Virgin might go for one. Several execs from ANA in the recent past have floated the possibility of a tie up with Virgin and if they were finally able to agree to something, it might work out for Virgin to get one of the slots.

An ANA-Virgin partnership would work much better for Virgin as ANA is the largest airline in Japan then compared to the Hong Kong Airlines partnership.
 
QF742
Posts: 153
Joined: Sat Aug 18, 2018 1:00 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:19 am

Pcoder wrote:
In regards to the HND slots, there is always a chance Virgin might go for one. Several execs from ANA in the recent past have floated the possibility of a tie up with Virgin and if they were finally able to agree to something, it might work out for Virgin to get one of the slots.

An ANA-Virgin partnership would work much better for Virgin as ANA is the largest airline in Japan then compared to the Hong Kong Airlines partnership.


But with VA a bit more tied up with VS now through HKG I think the likelihood of them opening up HND is slim. They are also not in great financial shape and entering a new international market is costly, risky and, at this stage, probably undesirable to its shareholders.
 
QF742
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:24 am

FL420FT wrote:
QF742 wrote:
With the approval (or near approval) of the VA/VS JV through HKG, this does seem to cement for me that VA will not be going after the HND slot.

I think with Scurrah now trying to stem loss making routes, starting a new international service would be high risk and not on the agenda. Presumably VA will try to focus HKG and see if they can lift profit through the new JV.

If this is the case, QF will be more than happy to take on both slots and I wouldn’t be surprised if, at the very least, QF applied for both.


I can confirm, from internally (nothing public sorry), that QF are chasing both HND slots for Australian based airlines.


Thanks for the intel. Not surprised to hear that they will be aiming for both. I think they stand a good chance. Even if VA did apply, QF is in a much better position to show that they are committed to providing service to HND.

I’m personally hoping for MEL-HND and I imagine the other one will go to make SYD 2x daily.

Separately - with JL and NH both receiving one slot to Australia, where do you think they will go? Presumably JL will go to SYD to better compete with QF/NH. But what about NH? Convert the new PER service to HND or open BNE or MEL?
 
getluv
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 16, 2019 12:17 pm

FJ’s issue with QF going daily was on the agenda between the Fijian and Australian PMs.

https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/fi ... 916-p52rt8

Not a lot of support for FJ on new sites and socials.
I'm that bad type.
 
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CraigAnderson
Posts: 298
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 16, 2019 7:22 pm

Alan Joyce rated as Australia’s highest-paid CEO, trousering $23.88 million in ‘realised pay’ for the 2018 financial year.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/compani ... 52rta.html
 
xiaotung
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 16, 2019 9:28 pm

QF742 wrote:
With the approval (or near approval) of the VA/VS JV through HKG, this does seem to cement for me that VA will not be going after the HND slot.

I think with Scurrah now trying to stem loss making routes, starting a new international service would be high risk and not on the agenda. Presumably VA will try to focus HKG and see if they can lift profit through the new JV.

If this is the case, QF will be more than happy to take on both slots and I wouldn’t be surprised if, at the very least, QF applied for both.


Even if VA decided to pull out of HKG, the JV should still remain in place as it also covers LAX as a transit point, right?

I think it's a little far fetched that the survival of the HKG routes is dependent on the connection of the one daily VS flight.

I also think giving up on the new HND slots and the NH team up is such a waste. NH is in a much better shape than JL. QF would not work with NH due to their oneworld affiliation which creates a perfect opportunity for VA to work with NH. If all things being equal, QF would pick NH over JL any day.
 
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:04 pm

Emirates says it will keep MEL-SIN flights despite its proposal to axe BNE-SIN flights

https://www.executivetraveller.com/emir ... re-flights

Don't quite believe that myself, as I recall Emirates denying plans to axe most of the AU-NZ A380 routes and then turning around and doing so.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:33 pm

CraigAnderson wrote:
Emirates says it will keep MEL-SIN flights despite its proposal to axe BNE-SIN flights

https://www.executivetraveller.com/emir ... re-flights

Don't quite believe that myself, as I recall Emirates denying plans to axe most of the AU-NZ A380 routes and then turning around and doing so.


The Tasman legs lasted 5 years from when the JV with QF started, that was something I understand had to happen to maintain capacity, are the SIN legs similar? there was some talk of QF adding more BNE-SIN when it went A330 from 744, maybe WF will add more flights? You would think MEL-SIN on EK will go a well? Replaced by more QF?
 
DeltaB717
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:14 am

I'm sure VA sees HKG and TYO/Japan as two separate markets and two separate sets of circumstances. HKG is as much, if not more, about connections onward to Europe (specifically LHR) as it is O&D. Australia-Japan is a very significant O&D market (in both directions) and doesn't really lend itself well to Europe connections given the much greater distance. Currently, apart from NH services to SYD and PER, that entire market is sewn up by QF and its partners. VA and NH working together could do very well in that space.

qf002 wrote:
QF742 wrote:
If this is the case, QF will be more than happy to take on both slots and I wouldn’t be surprised if, at the very least, QF applied for both.


These were always QF's slots. They are incredibly effective lobbyists and get exactly what they want 99% of the time, the rest of the process is just a show of rubber stamping.


That's simply not true. VA has been involved in the negotiation of the new Australia-HND capacity and I understand has a specific plan in mind. I'd be very, very surprised if they don't make a submission and, if they do, it's far more than a rubber-stamping exercise for QF to be awarded both frequencies. QF certainly don't have this run and won at this stage, unless VA choose not to make a submission.
 
QF742
Posts: 153
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:19 am

DeltaB717 wrote:
I'm sure VA sees HKG and TYO/Japan as two separate markets and two separate sets of circumstances. HKG is as much, if not more, about connections onward to Europe (specifically LHR) as it is O&D. Australia-Japan is a very significant O&D market (in both directions) and doesn't really lend itself well to Europe connections given the much greater distance. Currently, apart from NH services to SYD and PER, that entire market is sewn up by QF and its partners. VA and NH working together could do very well in that space.

qf002 wrote:
QF742 wrote:
If this is the case, QF will be more than happy to take on both slots and I wouldn’t be surprised if, at the very least, QF applied for both.


These were always QF's slots. They are incredibly effective lobbyists and get exactly what they want 99% of the time, the rest of the process is just a show of rubber stamping.


That's simply not true. VA has been involved in the negotiation of the new Australia-HND capacity and I understand has a specific plan in mind. I'd be very, very surprised if they don't make a submission and, if they do, it's far more than a rubber-stamping exercise for QF to be awarded both frequencies. QF certainly don't have this run and won at this stage, unless VA choose not to make a submission.


They are definitely 2 separate markets, but I’m not sure how they would serve both markets from a logistics perspective. VA have a small 332 fleet which are all tied up at the moment. They could take them off PER or reduce HKG, but not sure how much sense that would make financially.
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:26 am

QF742 wrote:
DeltaB717 wrote:
I'm sure VA sees HKG and TYO/Japan as two separate markets and two separate sets of circumstances. HKG is as much, if not more, about connections onward to Europe (specifically LHR) as it is O&D. Australia-Japan is a very significant O&D market (in both directions) and doesn't really lend itself well to Europe connections given the much greater distance. Currently, apart from NH services to SYD and PER, that entire market is sewn up by QF and its partners. VA and NH working together could do very well in that space.

qf002 wrote:

These were always QF's slots. They are incredibly effective lobbyists and get exactly what they want 99% of the time, the rest of the process is just a show of rubber stamping.


That's simply not true. VA has been involved in the negotiation of the new Australia-HND capacity and I understand has a specific plan in mind. I'd be very, very surprised if they don't make a submission and, if they do, it's far more than a rubber-stamping exercise for QF to be awarded both frequencies. QF certainly don't have this run and won at this stage, unless VA choose not to make a submission.


They are definitely 2 separate markets, but I’m not sure how they would serve both markets from a logistics perspective. VA have a small 332 fleet which are all tied up at the moment. They could take them off PER or reduce HKG, but not sure how much sense that would make financially.


Can't see VA starting HND unless if a formal tie up (even if it's just a codeshare agreement) with NH is applied. However, there's been no sources (insider or public) suggesting that VA is going to apply for any of the HND slots.

Per earlier posts, NH taking an equity stake is also unlikely. Look at the "so called saviour" SQ articles for example, they've rebutted those rumours year by year and more recently have clearly stated honesty in their last few financial reports that VA is a "clear money loser" for the SQ group as a whole.
Considering that HNA is struggling to get a serious interested buyer for their VA stake, The VA boardroom shareholder make up is likely to remain the status quo for the foreseeable future.
 
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:28 am

Qantas is going for SYD-HND (A330 or B789) and MEL-HND (A330), to start March 2020, with MEL-HND replacing MEL-NRT
https://www.executivetraveller.com/qant ... kyo-haneda
 
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SCFlyer
Posts: 290
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:32 am

CraigAnderson wrote:
Qantas is going for SYD-HND (A330 or B789) and MEL-HND (A330), to start March 2020, with MEL-HND replacing MEL-NRT
https://www.executivetraveller.com/qant ... kyo-haneda


I wonder where the MEL-NRT plane is going to be re-allocated? *let the speculation begin*

Considering EK is set to axe BNE-SIN, could QF use the spare A330 on a 2nd BNE-SIN (one of the flights retimed to connect properly to QF1/QF2) Currently there's an almost 6 hour connection between QF51 and QF1 heading westbound ex-BNE).
 
Fuling
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:36 am

SCFlyer wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
Qantas is going for SYD-HND (A330 or B789) and MEL-HND (A330), to start March 2020, with MEL-HND replacing MEL-NRT
https://www.executivetraveller.com/qant ... kyo-haneda


I wonder where the MEL-NRT plane is going to be re-allocated? *let the speculation begin*


MEL-HND
 
ben175
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:39 am

SCFlyer wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
Qantas is going for SYD-HND (A330 or B789) and MEL-HND (A330), to start March 2020, with MEL-HND replacing MEL-NRT
https://www.executivetraveller.com/qant ... kyo-haneda


I wonder where the MEL-NRT plane is going to be re-allocated? *let the speculation begin*

Considering EK is set to axe BNE-SIN, could QF use the spare A330 on a 2nd BNE-SIN (one of the flights retimed to connect properly to QF1/QF2) Currently there's an almost 6 hour connection between QF51 and QF1 heading westbound ex-BNE).


Easy answer - the A330 used on MEL-NRT will be used on HND.

Predictable move by QF, I am way more excited to see what happens on the other end. Will NH launch a new HND-Aus service or move PER there?
 
IndianicWorld
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:42 am

SCFlyer wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
Qantas is going for SYD-HND (A330 or B789) and MEL-HND (A330), to start March 2020, with MEL-HND replacing MEL-NRT
https://www.executivetraveller.com/qant ... kyo-haneda


I wonder where the MEL-NRT plane is going to be re-allocated? *let the speculation begin*

Considering EK is set to axe BNE-SIN, could QF use the spare A330 on a 2nd BNE-SIN (one of the flights retimed to connect properly to QF1/QF2) Currently there's an almost 6 hour connection between QF51 and QF1 heading westbound ex-BNE).


What’s to be reallocated? The flight is only moving from NRT to HND.
 
QF742
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:46 am

CraigAnderson wrote:
Qantas is going for SYD-HND (A330 or B789) and MEL-HND (A330), to start March 2020, with MEL-HND replacing MEL-NRT
https://www.executivetraveller.com/qant ... kyo-haneda


I wonder what will happen to the QF lounge at NRT if QF get both slots? They will only have 1 QF flight per day from BNE.
 
moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:47 am

Depends on how long the lease is.. it's certainly pretty old/tired looking last time I went through (not as bad as Auckland though)
 
smi0006
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:02 am

ben175 wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
Qantas is going for SYD-HND (A330 or B789) and MEL-HND (A330), to start March 2020, with MEL-HND replacing MEL-NRT
https://www.executivetraveller.com/qant ... kyo-haneda


I wonder where the MEL-NRT plane is going to be re-allocated? *let the speculation begin*

Considering EK is set to axe BNE-SIN, could QF use the spare A330 on a 2nd BNE-SIN (one of the flights retimed to connect properly to QF1/QF2) Currently there's an almost 6 hour connection between QF51 and QF1 heading westbound ex-BNE).


Easy answer - the A330 used on MEL-NRT will be used on HND.

Predictable move by QF, I am way more excited to see what happens on the other end. Will NH launch a new HND-Aus service or move PER there?


SYD-HND seems a waste of a 789 to me, I still feel it will be a 330. Perhaps taken off the Tasman? I’d imagine HND would be higher yielding.

MEL-HND is nice, but agreed not exciting. Hoping NH launch BNE/MEL -HND. I just don’t see PER market being established enough, and with no competition what’s the point?
 
smi0006
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Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2008 7:45 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:09 am

QF742 wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
Qantas is going for SYD-HND (A330 or B789) and MEL-HND (A330), to start March 2020, with MEL-HND replacing MEL-NRT
https://www.executivetraveller.com/qant ... kyo-haneda


I wonder what will happen to the QF lounge at NRT if QF get both slots? They will only have 1 QF flight per day from BNE.


I think this could be the reason the refurb was out on hold. I’d imagine SYD and AKL lounges may also be relocated with terminal expansion so investment there has also been halted.

I believe QF have a number of client carriers that use their lounge in NRT, they probably make money off them as a stand alone so even for one QF flight if it earns revenue why not keep it open!
 
moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:09 am

Question more is where is the 330/789 coming from for the additional SYD-HND, and how many 744ERs will be staying into 2021 as a result.
 
QF742
Posts: 153
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:17 am

smi0006 wrote:
ben175 wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:

I wonder where the MEL-NRT plane is going to be re-allocated? *let the speculation begin*

Considering EK is set to axe BNE-SIN, could QF use the spare A330 on a 2nd BNE-SIN (one of the flights retimed to connect properly to QF1/QF2) Currently there's an almost 6 hour connection between QF51 and QF1 heading westbound ex-BNE).


Easy answer - the A330 used on MEL-NRT will be used on HND.

Predictable move by QF, I am way more excited to see what happens on the other end. Will NH launch a new HND-Aus service or move PER there?


SYD-HND seems a waste of a 789 to me, I still feel it will be a 330. Perhaps taken off the Tasman? I’d imagine HND would be higher yielding.

MEL-HND is nice, but agreed not exciting. Hoping NH launch BNE/MEL -HND. I just don’t see PER market being established enough, and with no competition what’s the point?


I assume 789s have been factored in to take advantage of fleet down time between long haul missions.
 
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:21 am

moa999 wrote:
Depends on how long the lease is.. it's certainly pretty old/tired looking last time I went through (not as bad as Auckland though)


Yes, I think the door is shutting on QF NRT lounge, the decision to 'refresh' it was always questionable. Now doing anything to it, even keeping it, is basically unjustifiable, and I'm sure if QF can negotiate an early exit from the NRT lease they will do so!
 
Qf648
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:58 am

It’s always been a pokey horrible lounge at NRT.

Could one of the 388’s be in the pipeline, always though it needed more capacity than a 238 seat 789

So the 333 is probably right sized for this route
 
Captdasbomb
Posts: 72
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2019 2:08 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 2:08 am

smi0006 wrote:
ben175 wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:

I wonder where the MEL-NRT plane is going to be re-allocated? *let the speculation begin*

Considering EK is set to axe BNE-SIN, could QF use the spare A330 on a 2nd BNE-SIN (one of the flights retimed to connect properly to QF1/QF2) Currently there's an almost 6 hour connection between QF51 and QF1 heading westbound ex-BNE).


Easy answer - the A330 used on MEL-NRT will be used on HND.

Predictable move by QF, I am way more excited to see what happens on the other end. Will NH launch a new HND-Aus service or move PER there?


SYD-HND seems a waste of a 789 to me, I still feel it will be a 330. Perhaps taken off the Tasman? I’d imagine HND would be higher yielding.

MEL-HND is nice, but agreed not exciting. Hoping NH launch BNE/MEL -HND. I just don’t see PER market being established enough, and with no competition what’s the point?


Perth will stay as long as the State Government continues to prop it
 
Captdasbomb
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 2:13 am

Any know why QF96/ ZNH circled back to LA a few days ago?
 
VapourTrails
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 2:18 am

Qantas and Virgin Australia CEO are both speaking at the National Press Club this week, Wednesday 18 September, about monopoly and airports. Source: https://www.npc.org.au/speakers/alan-jo ... l-scurrah/
A.net member: 2001-2004, 2014-
 
openskies88
Posts: 25
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 3:41 am

Virgin Australia is applying soon to the IASC for a Haneda slot, with a media release to be distributed shortly.

Currently in discussions with a potential Japanese airline to partner on the route (any wonder who that could be?) Australian departure airport will be made clear in the IASC application.

Fingers crossed the application gets approved.
 
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 3:50 am

LOL, now Virgin Australia wants a HND slot. Tell 'em they're dreaming.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/virg ... kyo-haneda
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 3:50 am

If VA did apply for a slot and was successful, which way does QF go? I'm inclined to think 2x SYD-HND and keep MEL-NRT. JAL will almost certainly move SYD-NRT to HND with their slot and keep MEL-NRT, so there is no real competitive advantage to MEL-HND. I guess the unknown is what VA and/or NH apply for.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
QF742
Posts: 153
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 4:01 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
If VA did apply for a slot and was successful, which way does QF go? I'm inclined to think 2x SYD-HND and keep MEL-NRT. JAL will almost certainly move SYD-NRT to HND with their slot and keep MEL-NRT, so there is no real competitive advantage to MEL-HND. I guess the unknown is what VA and/or NH apply for.


If VA/NH did a deal, they could potentially use the NH slot for MEL and the VA slot for BNE (or vice versa). This would mean a combined VA/NH would operate from HND to SYD/BNE/MEL and NRT to PER. It could be quite a compelling proposal.
 
tullamarine
Posts: 2142
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 4:07 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
If VA did apply for a slot and was successful, which way does QF go? I'm inclined to think 2x SYD-HND and keep MEL-NRT. JAL will almost certainly move SYD-NRT to HND with their slot and keep MEL-NRT, so there is no real competitive advantage to MEL-HND. I guess the unknown is what VA and/or NH apply for.

Assuming NH and VA enter into a JV partnership whereby they fully coordinate and which would probably get ACCC tick-off fairly easily, I'd assume one doing HND-BNE and one doing HND-SYD. PER is probably too new to use up a valuable slot whereas BNE and SYD both enable domestic oncarriage in AU.

It is interesting to see VA saying they are going to bid for HND slots. Many assumed Scurrah was going to abandon int'l flying or, at least, limit it to LAX, DPS and NAN; obviously this is not the case. The VS JV seems to secure HKG whilst a potential NH JV is opening up a new market.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
budgetflyer
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Joined: Fri May 10, 2019 8:28 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 4:09 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
If VA did apply for a slot and was successful, which way does QF go? I'm inclined to think 2x SYD-HND and keep MEL-NRT. JAL will almost certainly move SYD-NRT to HND with their slot and keep MEL-NRT, so there is no real competitive advantage to MEL-HND. I guess the unknown is what VA and/or NH apply for.


Perhaps BNE-HND, especially if such a service was to be operated in conjunction with NH. VA's less-premium A330 configuration would suit this market, and VA would be able to offer more connections ex-BNE compared to a MEL or SYD flight, especially on QLD and trans-Tasman routes. The shorter flight time would also reduce flight costs and allow VA to operate a daily flight using just one frame. Unlike Hong Kong, I think that VA actually stands a chance of making a profit on any potential Japan services.

A potential schedule which would allow for domestic connections on both ends might be something like:
BNE-HND 1000-1820
HND-BNE 1950-0550
 
qf002
Posts: 3577
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2011 11:14 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 4:16 am

tullamarine wrote:
Assuming NH and VA enter into a JV partnership whereby they fully coordinate and which would probably get ACCC tick-off fairly easily, I'd assume one doing HND-BNE and one doing HND-SYD. PER is probably too new to use up a valuable slot whereas BNE and SYD both enable domestic oncarriage in AU.


NH already flies SYD-HND.
 
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 4:19 am

Puts IASC in a bit of a pickle, it now has to make what is effectively a judgement call on Virgin Australia's business via its ability to sustain this route. If IASC hands both slots to Qantas it will cop a shellacking from Virgin Australia for being pro-QF and anti-competition, but the media will be quick to paint this as the IASC having no confidence in Virgin.
 
DeltaB717
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 4:32 am

SCFlyer wrote:
However, there's been no sources (insider or public) suggesting that VA is going to apply for any of the HND slots.


Well, I mean, I suggested it and, as you might've gathered from my previous post, my information would be considered 'insider'.

QF742 wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
If VA did apply for a slot and was successful, which way does QF go? I'm inclined to think 2x SYD-HND and keep MEL-NRT. JAL will almost certainly move SYD-NRT to HND with their slot and keep MEL-NRT, so there is no real competitive advantage to MEL-HND. I guess the unknown is what VA and/or NH apply for.


If VA/NH did a deal, they could potentially use the NH slot for MEL and the VA slot for BNE (or vice versa). This would mean a combined VA/NH would operate from HND to SYD/BNE/MEL and NRT to PER. It could be quite a compelling proposal.


What you're suggesting fits with what I've heard as far as BNE and MEL. I'll not say too much more but, assuming VA secures one of the frequencies, an announcement concerning at least one of those airports should not come as a surprise. The other will depend on the business case for that airport vs SYD.

CraigAnderson wrote:
Puts IASC in a bit of a pickle, it now has to make what is effectively a judgement call on Virgin Australia's business via its ability to sustain this route. If IASC hands both slots to Qantas it will cop a shellacking from Virgin Australia for being pro-QF and anti-competition, but the media will be quick to paint this as the IASC having no confidence in Virgin.


It would be very close to a no-brainer for them, actually. The Minister's IASC Policy Statement requires the IASC to consider, in addition to whether a carrier is reasonably capable of operating the proposed service, whether allocating capacity in a particular way is in the public interest. Particularly following their own decision on QF/CX, the IASC would be very hard pressed to find that awarding all available HND capacity on the Australian side to a single carrier is in the public interest - noting, of course, that QF is partnered with JQ and JL in operating the vast majority of Australia - Japan services. I expect NH would also be looking at its legal options to appeal such a decision.
 
Sydscott
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 5:03 am

DeltaB717 wrote:

It would be very close to a no-brainer for them, actually. The Minister's IASC Policy Statement requires the IASC to consider, in addition to whether a carrier is reasonably capable of operating the proposed service, whether allocating capacity in a particular way is in the public interest. Particularly following their own decision on QF/CX, the IASC would be very hard pressed to find that awarding all available HND capacity on the Australian side to a single carrier is in the public interest - noting, of course, that QF is partnered with JQ and JL in operating the vast majority of Australia - Japan services. I expect NH would also be looking at its legal options to appeal such a decision.


The key question being is Virgin "reasonably capable of operating the proposed service" because unless it is there is no public benefit or interest in giving them such an important slot. As other posters also point out in order to Virgin to do this they would also need to withdraw capacity from somewhere being either HKG or domestic services. If they do it from HKG it kind of makes a mockery of all of their objections to the QF/CX codeshare deal but if they withdraw it from domestic services then they become substantially less competitive with QF's transcontinental services with 737's picking up where A330's used to be. Either way there is a public detriment to any Virgin action unless they are planning on increasing their fleet numbers.

The other important consideration is whether or not Virgin will be in a position to fully operate the services by 29 March 2020 as well because if they're not going to daily from day 1 then that also means the public is at detriment.

I look forward to seeing how all of these will be addressed by Virgin in their application because the IASC will definitely need this information from them to give an allocation.

RyanairGuru wrote:
If VA did apply for a slot and was successful, which way does QF go? I'm inclined to think 2x SYD-HND and keep MEL-NRT. JAL will almost certainly move SYD-NRT to HND with their slot and keep MEL-NRT, so there is no real competitive advantage to MEL-HND. I guess the unknown is what VA and/or NH apply for.


If QF only gets one slot pair what I would do for QF/JL out of Tokyo is:

- SYD-HND - 1 daily (QF existing service)
- SYD-HND - 1 daily (JL to replace SYD-NRT)
- SYD-NRT - 1 daily (JQ new service)
- MEL-HND - 1 daily (QF to replace MEL-NRT)
- MEL-NRT - 1 daily (JL existing service)
- BNE-NRT - 1 daily (QF existing service)
- OOL-NRT - 1 daily (JQ existing service)
- CNS-NRT - 1 daily (JQ existing service)

Obviously QF/JQ have SYD-KIX, CNS-KIX and SYD-CTS seasonal service on top of this but this gives the combined group:

8 daily Tokyo services all up;
3 daily services from Sydney with 2 Premium services to HND and a budget service going into NRT to connect to Jetstar Japan;
2 daily services from Melbourne.
3 daily services out of Queensland all going to NRT.

QF would also need the 789 on SYD-HND given the A330 doesn't have Premium Economy and they would need that in order to replace the 747's. Overall that's a pretty formidable lineup of services.
Last edited by Sydscott on Tue Sep 17, 2019 5:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
moa999
Posts: 555
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 5:05 am

Maybe.

Equally one could argue allocating a constrained route to an entity that is 90%+ foreign owned and appears to operate as a single group (notwithstanding the grandfathered Virgin Aus Intl structure) isn't in Australia's interests.

The Qantas submission also seems to make the case that any other Australian airline may struggle to get other approvals from the Japanese (pointing out it took 3 months to get A380 approval), like they were expecting an application by VA.
Last edited by moa999 on Tue Sep 17, 2019 5:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
smi0006
Posts: 2319
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2008 7:45 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 5:10 am

Other curious question is which I believe is being overstated - JL and QF don’t even codeshare yet alone any form of JV. There is no schedule or fair cooperation. If a hypothetical NH/VA JV or codeshare would occur could this then remove concerns around a lack of completion for QF/JL and cause even more headaches for a weaker VA?

NH/VA Not to mention would need a quick turn around. I hope we see VA MEL-HND and NH BNE-HND, with NH already covering PER and SYD- JPN
Last edited by smi0006 on Tue Sep 17, 2019 5:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Obzerva
Posts: 412
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 5:20 am

I wonder if there’s any HNA group A330s that could be leased out short term to VA to start a HND flight to maintain its current schedules to PER and HKG
 
tullamarine
Posts: 2142
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 1999 1:14 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 6:05 am

Obzerva wrote:
I wonder if there’s any HNA group A330s that could be leased out short term to VA to start a HND flight to maintain its current schedules to PER and HKG

Leasing A330s is not a problem; there are plenty available in the market. Both HNA and EY have available planes but there are others elsewhere; the secret is making sure they are in good condition unlike the original 2 A332s leased which had had a tough life with EK.
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smi0006
Posts: 2319
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2008 7:45 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 6:17 am

tullamarine wrote:
Obzerva wrote:
I wonder if there’s any HNA group A330s that could be leased out short term to VA to start a HND flight to maintain its current schedules to PER and HKG

Leasing A330s is not a problem; there are plenty available in the market. Both HNA and EY have available planes but there are others elsewhere; the secret is making sure they are in good condition unlike the original 2 A332s leased which had had a tough life with EK.


And as QF found out a short time ago... having them properly trained crew to fly them.
 
getluv
Posts: 520
Joined: Thu Jun 11, 2015 12:11 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 6:26 am

DeltaB717 wrote:
It would be very close to a no-brainer for them, actually. The Minister's IASC Policy Statement requires the IASC to consider, in addition to whether a carrier is reasonably capable of operating the proposed service, whether allocating capacity in a particular way is in the public interest. Particularly following their own decision on QF/CX, the IASC would be very hard pressed to find that awarding all available HND capacity on the Australian side to a single carrier is in the public interest - noting, of course, that QF is partnered with JQ and JL in operating the vast majority of Australia - Japan services. I expect NH would also be looking at its legal options to appeal such a decision.


QF and JL are not really partners are they. Apart from a route here or there, there's virtually no relationship besides their shareholding in GK. Yes, they are in oneworld together and some codeshare routes that is about it.

VA and NH's relationship to date is like VA presence in Japan, non-existent. Any co-operation with NH through a JV would take months to work through and get approval for not just in Australia but also Japan. Any JV-like corporation with NH would also give QF/JL impetus to also apply for their own. I am sure NH prefers JL being the weaker player.

The IASC would have egg on the face if they allocated VA a slot and they were unable to commence services by 29 March. Given VA would need to establish a Japan POS, marketing presence and operations all within months, this would be difficult. Even if they could, airfares are going to fall, which is great for consumers but is this what VA needs right now? Another route where they are going to lose another $5-10M a year.

While VA entering will be good for consumers, I don't see this being viable and strong business decision and will likely put SQ even more offside. They themselves carry a lot of connecting passengers via SIN.

Anyway, we will not have long to find out what VA does. The standard review/appeal process has been waived and will probably have a result in a few weeks as opposed the review period with QF/CX which took 5 months to resolve.
Last edited by getluv on Tue Sep 17, 2019 6:46 am, edited 7 times in total.
I'm that bad type.
 
getluv
Posts: 520
Joined: Thu Jun 11, 2015 12:11 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 6:28 am

cam747 wrote:
getluv wrote:
Still it's a bitter pill and showcases how bad JB was for VA. I mean, paying $700M for something you sold $335M a few years before doesn't look good.


It's rarely that simple. 35% of VFF is still 35%, Velocity is just double the value it was in 2014. I don't know the intricacies of the deal with Affinity, but no doubt they provided capital that couldn't be secured elsewhere at the time. Maybe Affinity also provided Virgin other support to help grow Velocity and double its value in five years.


Has the value of VFF more than doubled during that time? I think not. It goes to show JB did not extract enough value out of Affinity when it initially sold the 35%.
I'm that bad type.
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