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QF742
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 6:43 am

getluv wrote:
DeltaB717 wrote:
It would be very close to a no-brainer for them, actually. The Minister's IASC Policy Statement requires the IASC to consider, in addition to whether a carrier is reasonably capable of operating the proposed service, whether allocating capacity in a particular way is in the public interest. Particularly following their own decision on QF/CX, the IASC would be very hard pressed to find that awarding all available HND capacity on the Australian side to a single carrier is in the public interest - noting, of course, that QF is partnered with JQ and JL in operating the vast majority of Australia - Japan services. I expect NH would also be looking at its legal options to appeal such a decision.


QF and JL are not really partners are they. Apart from a route here or there, there's virtually no relationship besides their shareholding in GK. Yes, they are in oneworld together but and some codeshare routes that is about it.

VA and NH's relationship to date is like VA presence in Japan, non-existent. Any co-operation with NH through a JV would take months to work through and get approval for not just in Australia but also Japan. Any JV-like corporation with NH would also give QF/JL impetus to also apply for their own. I am sure NH prefers JL being the weaker player.

The IASC would have egg on the face if they allocated VA a slot and they were unable to commence services by 29 March. Given VA would need to establish a Japan POS, marketing presence and operations all within months, this would be difficult. Even if they could, airfares are going to fall, which is great for consumers but is this what VA needs right now? Another route where they are going to lose another $5-10M a year.

While VA entering will be good for consumers, I don't see this being viable and strong business decision and will likely put SQ even more offside. They themselves carry a lot of connecting passengers via SIN.

Anyway, we will not have long to find out what VA does. The standard review/appeal process has been waived and will probably have a result in a few weeks as opposed the review period with QF/CX which took 5 months to resolve.


Very well articulated. There are number of pieces to this puzzle!

What I might add is that surely VA/NH would have been aware of the upcoming HND slot allocations a long time ago and it is possible they are well progressed in negotiation on any proposed JV or similar. This is hypothetical of course. If that were the case, is it possible they could move quickly on getting ACCC approval to cooperate? I’m not particularly confident of the chances that the Japanese and Australian regulators will have a JV approved in time to start 29 March 2020.
 
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eta unknown
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 6:45 am

Does the Australia/Japan air services agreement permit code sharing?
 
Pcoder
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:28 am

eta unknown wrote:
Does the Australia/Japan air services agreement permit code sharing?


I know that JL does codeshares on the JQ flights to Japan. As JL/QF do have close to 90% of the Japan /Australia market, it would always be a bit difficult to add a direct codeshare on these routes bar the Jetstar one as they are likely to be rejected if there is a lack of competition (ie Cathay and Qantas at Hong Kong)
 
a19901213
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:39 am

https://www.iasc.gov.au/applications/fi ... _Japan.pdf

Just read through the application and I found it funny how Qantas is so determined to stop VA from being allocated the slot.

TBH majority would probably prefer QF being rewarded those slots, especially Melbourne resident.
 
log0008
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:52 am

a19901213 wrote:
https://www.iasc.gov.au/applications/files/20190916_PUBLIC_VERSION_QF_Application_Japan.pdf

Just read through the application and I found it funny how Qantas is so determined to stop VA from being allocated the slot.

TBH majority would probably prefer QF being rewarded those slots, especially Melbourne resident.


No QF HND at MEL would almost guarantee NH coming along so from a competition point QF not flying to HND from MEL could have its advantages. Of course NH may fly to MEL regardless
 
SYDSpotter
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 9:44 am

getluv wrote:

Has the value of VFF more than doubled during that time? I think not. It goes to show JB did not extract enough value out of Affinity when it initially sold the 35%.


The valuation of VFF would be based on an earnings multiple. I don't have EBIT figures for VFF going back to 2014, but the revenue for VFF in 2014 was $201m vs $411m in 2019. So yes, perfectly reasonable that the value of VFF has doubled since 2014.

JB didn't just pluck a figure out of nowhere when selling the 35% stake in 2014.
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getluv
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:26 am

SYDSpotter wrote:
getluv wrote:

Has the value of VFF more than doubled during that time? I think not. It goes to show JB did not extract enough value out of Affinity when it initially sold the 35%.


The valuation of VFF would be based on an earnings multiple. I don't have EBIT figures for VFF going back to 2014, but the revenue for VFF in 2014 was $201m vs $411m in 2019. So yes, perfectly reasonable that the value of VFF has doubled since 2014.

JB didn't just pluck a figure out of nowhere when selling the 35% stake in 2014.


That $700M is Affinity’s valuation of VFF as they were the ones that wanted out. Given that VA sold a percentage of Velocity to a bit of fanfare I do not believe they shopped around to get maximum value.

There a number of ways to value a subsidiary. It’s no secret VA were desperate for capital in 2014.
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travelhound
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:51 am

As the cost of capital at present is very low (some are reporting US$ under 2% pa.) there was probably a good opportunity to acquire the 35% share at a relatively low financing cost. With the transaction having a financing multiple close to sixteen the purchase price suggests the Velocity business has a lot of potential for growth or synergies / profit opportunity by bringing the business back in house.

Initially, I was surprised by the purchase price. If we go back to 2014 when affinity brought its share, the VA business and in particular the premium products were in growth mode. I thought the original price included a price premium to reflect the substantial growth potential.

In 2019 I don't see the same growth potential. If we take the new CEO's comments with regards to "right sizing" into consideration VA may actually become a smaller business than what it is right now.

I'd suggest Affinity and VA both had put options in the original sales contract. One of those options could have revolved around VA having veto rights to a sale to a third party. The problem with these type of veto rights is that they come with a price attached. As such, pitentially $700 million latter VA now has full ownership.
 
cam747
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:15 pm

SYDSpotter wrote:
getluv wrote:

Has the value of VFF more than doubled during that time? I think not. It goes to show JB did not extract enough value out of Affinity when it initially sold the 35%.


The valuation of VFF would be based on an earnings multiple. I don't have EBIT figures for VFF going back to 2014, but the revenue for VFF in 2014 was $201m vs $411m in 2019. So yes, perfectly reasonable that the value of VFF has doubled since 2014.

JB didn't just pluck a figure out of nowhere when selling the 35% stake in 2014.

:checkmark: :checkmark:

getluv wrote:
Given that VA sold a percentage of Velocity to a bit of fanfare I do not believe they shopped around to get maximum value.


That's quite a claim against the board of a listed company. What were the other options you believe they had in front of them on the boardroom table in 2014, that they passed over for an inferior offer from Affinity?
 
FL420FT
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:39 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
If VA did apply for a slot and was successful, which way does QF go? I'm inclined to think 2x SYD-HND and keep MEL-NRT. JAL will almost certainly move SYD-NRT to HND with their slot and keep MEL-NRT, so there is no real competitive advantage to MEL-HND. I guess the unknown is what VA and/or NH apply for.


Well It looks like that VA are going to apply for the HND slot ...

https://australianaviation.com.au/2019/ ... neda-slot/
 
ADL77W
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:30 pm

Looks like ADL had a pretty great August:

Passengers: 734,052, +4.3% year-on-year;
Domestic: 580,826, +2.6%;
International: 99,567, +14.2%;
Regional: 53,659, +6.9%

https://blueswandaily.com/adelaide-airp ... -aug-2019/
 
getluv
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 17, 2019 3:20 pm

cam747 wrote:
That's quite a claim against the board of a listed company. What were the other options you believe they had in front of them on the boardroom table in 2014, that they passed over for an inferior offer from Affinity?


The claim is in the price they sold the 35% for and the events that took place. Velocity announced Affinity had bought 35% for $336M when they released their 2013/14 annual results which were dire following the “capacity war”. VA were desperate for cash and therefore rushed the sale process. Usually a company would flag a notice to the stock exchange of its intention to sell all/part of a major asset. There was none of that.

Profitability in Velocity grew initially but has not reached peak following the interchange fee changes that affected loyalty programs in Australia in 2017.

Keep in mind 35% of VFF’s profits has gone to Affinity over this time. Therefore I would argue this whole exercise has cost VA over $300M for very little benefit. In saying that, strategically it is VA’s better move. I just hope they can keep costs down like a private equity firm can.
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Wed Sep 18, 2019 1:24 am

From AusBT/ET, "Virgin Atlantic eyes Sydney, Auckland, Singapore in bold (and possibly bonkers) expansion plan" !

https://www.executivetraveller.com/virg ... nsion-plan
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Wed Sep 18, 2019 2:14 am

Notably no PER.
 
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Wed Sep 18, 2019 2:58 am

qf002 wrote:
Notably no PER.


Maybe that's just too 'boring' for Virgin Atlantic because Qantas already does it, the airline might just want to come across as super-ambitious, although I agree with AusBT/ET that it's a bit daft too. Didn't I read somewhere recently that Virgin Atlantic says it could fly LHR-PER but it wouldn't be profitable?
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Wed Sep 18, 2019 3:02 am

Answering my own post, it was in the application for the closer VA/VS partnership to the ACCC.

While Virgin Atlantic has aircraft technically equipped to undertake a non-stop route from Perth to London Heathrow, demand, yields and payloads are such that it would not be possible to make these services commercially viable.


https://www.accc.gov.au/system/files/pu ... ERSION.pdf
 
N91
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Wed Sep 18, 2019 3:12 am

If the numbers on Sunrise work, and QF picks the delayed 777X, perhaps VS can beat them to the punch with the A35K-ULR on LHR-SYD.
 
a7ala
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Wed Sep 18, 2019 4:09 am

CraigAnderson wrote:
From AusBT/ET, "Virgin Atlantic eyes Sydney, Auckland, Singapore in bold (and possibly bonkers) expansion plan" !

https://www.executivetraveller.com/virg ... nsion-plan


Its just VS picking dots on a map without looking at it seriously. Even Air NZ arent talking up AKL-LHR non-stops and a 1-stop doesnt add anything to the other multiple 1-stop options currently available.
 
smi0006
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Wed Sep 18, 2019 4:30 am

N91 wrote:
If the numbers on Sunrise work, and QF picks the delayed 777X, perhaps VS can beat them to the punch with the A35K-ULR on LHR-SYD.


None of this is related to aircraft - it’s related to how Heathrow routes are allocated with a new runway. Sunrise will be well established before LHR gets a new runway.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Wed Sep 18, 2019 4:58 am

CraigAnderson wrote:
From AusBT/ET, "Virgin Atlantic eyes Sydney, Auckland, Singapore in bold (and possibly bonkers) expansion plan" !

https://www.executivetraveller.com/virg ... nsion-plan


A lot of former routes there: SYD, TYO, NBO, CPT, ORD etc have all been flown in the past and discontinued. VS' history of profitability is just as checkered as VA's and they only stabilised when they focussed primarily on TATL routes in connection with DL plus a few choice high yield destinations. IMHO this is a lot of hit air from VS and most of these route won't see the light of day.

I do think the timing is interesting. The current PM was opposed to the expansion of LHR while Mayor of London, and while he hasn't stated a recent position on the issue he is probably less enthusiastic than Cameron/May. I think this is a PR attempt to build support for LHR expansion by claiming consumer benefits against the BA 'monopoly'. Regardless of whether they launch all of these route or not, VS stand to gain more than BA from an expanded LHR.

The dirty secret is that IAG is no longer wholly supportive of LHR expansion as they still haven't fully optimised their network from the additional slots they acquired from BD. as they have more slots than they have worked out what to do with the status quo suits them as it limits competition. With a PM less supportive of expansion I wouldn't be at all surprised if IAG was quietly lobbying in the background to slow the process down.
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tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Wed Sep 18, 2019 5:54 am

a7ala wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
From AusBT/ET, "Virgin Atlantic eyes Sydney, Auckland, Singapore in bold (and possibly bonkers) expansion plan" !

https://www.executivetraveller.com/virg ... nsion-plan


Its just VS picking dots on a map without looking at it seriously. Even Air NZ arent talking up AKL-LHR non-stops and a 1-stop doesnt add anything to the other multiple 1-stop options currently available.

Remember this is largely an ambit claim in relation to slot allocations if the third runway is built. VS is pushing a claim that of the new UK slots created, it deserves more than its current percentage as BA currently has a higher percentage than it should and dominates the airport. It is a political argument made more complex as the original allocations were made when BA was a government owned flag-carrier.
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Wed Sep 18, 2019 10:01 am

getluv wrote:
That $700M is Affinity’s valuation of VFF as they were the ones that wanted out. Given that VA sold a percentage of Velocity to a bit of fanfare I do not believe they shopped around to get maximum value.
There a number of ways to value a subsidiary. It’s no secret VA were desperate for capital in 2014.


getluv wrote:
Velocity announced Affinity had bought 35% for $336M when they released their 2013/14 annual results which were dire following the “capacity war”. VA were desperate for cash and therefore rushed the sale process.


Ok, so SQ/EY/NZ and Virgin Group (UK) all had seats on the board in 2014. So rather then tip in money themselves to shore up VA, they decided to "rush the sales process" and as you claim, sold VFF at a value which wasn't representative of the VFF's true market value??

If that was the case, then I guess SQ/EY/NZ/Virgin shot themselves in the foot. But NZ, SQ and Virgin Group are pretty well run companies (I'll hold judgement on EY), so I struggle to see why they would fail so miserably in doing their due diligence. With someone like Goh Choon Phong (CEO of SQ at the time) and Chris Luxon (NZ CEO) on the board who are both pretty shrewd operators, I am doubtful that they would've rushed the sales process, get a poor sale value at the detriment of their underlying investment in VA.
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getluv
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Wed Sep 18, 2019 11:23 am

SYDSpotter wrote:
getluv wrote:
That $700M is Affinity’s valuation of VFF as they were the ones that wanted out. Given that VA sold a percentage of Velocity to a bit of fanfare I do not believe they shopped around to get maximum value.
There a number of ways to value a subsidiary. It’s no secret VA were desperate for capital in 2014.


getluv wrote:
Velocity announced Affinity had bought 35% for $336M when they released their 2013/14 annual results which were dire following the “capacity war”. VA were desperate for cash and therefore rushed the sale process.


Ok, so SQ/EY/NZ and Virgin Group (UK) all had seats on the board in 2014. So rather then tip in money themselves to shore up VA, they decided to "rush the sales process" and as you claim, sold VFF at a value which wasn't representative of the VFF's true market value??

If that was the case, then I guess SQ/EY/NZ/Virgin shot themselves in the foot. But NZ, SQ and Virgin Group are pretty well run companies (I'll hold judgement on EY), so I struggle to see why they would fail so miserably in doing their due diligence. With someone like Goh Choon Phong (CEO of SQ at the time) and Chris Luxon (NZ CEO) on the board who are both pretty shrewd operators, I am doubtful that they would've rushed the sales process, get a poor sale value at the detriment of their underlying investment in VA.


The Board would have acted on the advice given to them by management.

You know what happened next? Luxon left and VA had to put a hand out to another investor because none of their shareholders were prepared to give management another cent.
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cam747
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Wed Sep 18, 2019 9:01 pm

getluv wrote:
The Board would have acted on the advice given to them by management.

You know what happened next? Luxon left and VA had to put a hand out to another investor because none of their shareholders were prepared to give management another cent.


So when you say "next" that was actually three years later. There was a lot of water under the bridge between the Affinity sale and Luxon leaving VA (including Luxon trying to roll JB without the support of the board, and Luxon pushing for VA to cancel profitable international routes to funnel Australians through AKL for the benefit of his own airline).
 
getluv
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Wed Sep 18, 2019 9:14 pm

cam747 wrote:
getluv wrote:
The Board would have acted on the advice given to them by management.

You know what happened next? Luxon left and VA had to put a hand out to another investor because none of their shareholders were prepared to give management another cent.


So when you say "next" that was actually three years later. There was a lot of water under the bridge between the Affinity sale and Luxon leaving VA (including Luxon trying to roll JB without the support of the board, and Luxon pushing for VA to cancel profitable international routes to funnel Australians through AKL for the benefit of his own airline).

Err. Try 16 months after the sale went through.

Your reasoning about Luxon leaving the board is mere conjecture. Luxon has never confirmed this and likely never will. Resigning immediately meant he had no faith left in VA’s management.
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Wed Sep 18, 2019 9:36 pm

cam747 wrote:
(including Luxon trying to roll JB without the support of the board, and Luxon pushing for VA to cancel profitable international routes to funnel Australians through AKL for the benefit of his own airline).


That is conjecture. This whole Luxon-Borghetti thing seems to have taken on a life of its own. There is very, very little information out there about what was said and by whom, and that which has been leaked is (IMHO) far from a reliable account as it would have been leaked to serve someone's agenda, not in the interests of openess and transparency!
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allrite
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Wed Sep 18, 2019 11:31 pm

Alan Joyce says Jetstar doesn't fly to Canberra due to high airport fees.

"We've got into a diplomatic incident, the High Commissioner of Kenya wrote us a complaint saying how dare we diminish the good name of his country by comparing it to Canberra Airport,"


Airport replies that if Tiger can make it work then Jetstar should: https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/ ... -canberra/
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tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 12:36 am

allrite wrote:
Alan Joyce says Jetstar doesn't fly to Canberra due to high airport fees.

"We've got into a diplomatic incident, the High Commissioner of Kenya wrote us a complaint saying how dare we diminish the good name of his country by comparing it to Canberra Airport,"


Airport replies that if Tiger can make it work then Jetstar should: https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/ ... -canberra/


I can't help thinking Qantas may be a bit disingenuous about its comments on CBR. Sure, airport fees are high, but it is also an incredibly high yielding airport for Qantas with lots of corporate travel. It probably isn't too keen on diluting these yields by offering a cheaper alternative. Airports are monopolies and we have a domestic duopoly, I don't think any of them really wants too much competition.
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 1:55 am

Totally agree. QF knows that CBR offers high yields, it has no reason to roll out JQ.
 
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allrite
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 1:59 am

tullamarine wrote:
I can't help thinking Qantas may be a bit disingenuous about its comments on CBR. Sure, airport fees are high, but it is also an incredibly high yielding airport for Qantas with lots of corporate travel. It probably isn't too keen on diluting these yields by offering a cheaper alternative. Airports are monopolies and we have a domestic duopoly, I don't think any of them really wants too much competition.


The lack of leisure routes out of Canberra is interesting, with the VA flights to OOL being the only ones.

Was there some discussion about the place of ATRs in VA? What would they do with places like CBR without ATRs? QF mostly gets by with the 717s and Dash 8's on the SYD-CBR routes.
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ben175
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 2:01 am

CraigAnderson wrote:
Totally agree. QF knows that CBR offers high yields, it has no reason to roll out JQ.


I doubt a daily MEL-CBR and SYD-CBR service to target the tourism/student/lower income earning community would have that much of an impact on QF's yields.
 
Pcoder
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 2:16 am

I do agree with Tullamarine on the point about the Qantas yields at CBR.

Although I also strongly that as the Airports are natural monopolies that they should be more tightly regulated.

I'd like to see a system of price caps from everything from passenger departure fees to car parking. I'd also rate the airports on their provided amenities, so airports that provide a high level of service would be able to charge more than underperforming ones.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 2:54 am

Flew out of Nandi airport on Monday night back to Melbourne on Fiji Airways, saw a Lion Air group (Marlindo Air) 738 over at the Hanger, I think FJ are going to lease the 738 to replace the Max 8's (2 of them parked out side the Hanger there) until the Max's get the go ahead to fly.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 3:34 am

Flyingsottsman wrote:
Flew out of Nandi airport on Monday night back to Melbourne on Fiji Airways, saw a Lion Air group (Marlindo Air) 738 over at the Hanger, I think FJ are going to lease the 738 to replace the Max 8's (2 of them parked out side the Hanger there) until the Max's get the go ahead to fly.

Yep the Malindo bird is exactly a lease for FJ according to Australian Aviation: https://australianaviation.com.au/2019/ ... unded-max/

9M-LNV being the bird: https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/9m-lnv

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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 3:37 am

ben175 wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
Totally agree. QF knows that CBR offers high yields, it has no reason to roll out JQ.


I doubt a daily MEL-CBR and SYD-CBR service to target the tourism/student/lower income earning community would have that much of an impact on QF's yields.


SYD-CBR would never happen on an LCC - the leisure market goes by road (private car or coach service). Air travel only serves the corporate market and connections. However, MEL and BNE are large enough markets that there is sufficient leisure tradfic to support limited service. Tiger has slowly but surely increased frequency on both routes since re-entering CBR.
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 3:44 am

tullamarine wrote:
allrite wrote:
Alan Joyce says Jetstar doesn't fly to Canberra due to high airport fees.

"We've got into a diplomatic incident, the High Commissioner of Kenya wrote us a complaint saying how dare we diminish the good name of his country by comparing it to Canberra Airport,"


Airport replies that if Tiger can make it work then Jetstar should: https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/ ... -canberra/


I can't help thinking Qantas may be a bit disingenuous about its comments on CBR. Sure, airport fees are high, but it is also an incredibly high yielding airport for Qantas with lots of corporate travel. It probably isn't too keen on diluting these yields by offering a cheaper alternative. Airports are monopolies and we have a domestic duopoly, I don't think any of them really wants too much competition.


The ironic thing is that the biggest looser IMHO is Canberra Airpott. Very, very little corporate traffic will flow onto JQ/TT, so they won't really dilute QF's yields. At the moment though a lot of Canberrans traveling for leisure drive to SYD and fly from there. This is more common for international traffic than domestic, but I definitely know of people traveling from SYD domestically as well. Also some Melbourne traffic still goes by road. To this extent, more LCC flights to CBR could be entirely stimulatory by reducing traffic leakage. This means more passengers, and thus more revenue, for CAG.
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 7:45 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
The ironic thing is that the biggest looser IMHO is Canberra Airpott. Very, very little corporate traffic will flow onto JQ/TT, so they won't really dilute QF's yields. At the moment though a lot of Canberrans traveling for leisure drive to SYD and fly from there. This is more common for international traffic than domestic, but I definitely know of people traveling from SYD domestically as well. Also some Melbourne traffic still goes by road. To this extent, more LCC flights to CBR could be entirely stimulatory by reducing traffic leakage. This means more passengers, and thus more revenue, for CAG.


RG what do you think about international JQ out of CBR? Perhaps something like an A320 or the like to DPS to join the bali crowd. Lots of regional pax would travel to CBR over SYD/MEL if it was an option, perhaps from Wagga, the Southern Highlands and perhaps up towards Parkes even?
 
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CraigAnderson
Posts: 528
Joined: Fri Jan 05, 2018 12:28 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 8:35 am

Amazing, and rather worrying too!

A Vietnam Airlines flight was within one minute of landing at Melbourne Airport on Thursday morning when air traffic controllers were shocked to discover the Boeing 787 Dreamliner’s landing gear was still up.
Air safety officials have launched an investigation into the incident, regarded as extremely serious because the plane came so close to the ground without landing gear having been put down.


https://www.theage.com.au/business/cons ... 52t3j.html
 
myki
Posts: 187
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2018 6:43 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 9:54 am

qf2220 wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
The ironic thing is that the biggest looser IMHO is Canberra Airpott. Very, very little corporate traffic will flow onto JQ/TT, so they won't really dilute QF's yields. At the moment though a lot of Canberrans traveling for leisure drive to SYD and fly from there. This is more common for international traffic than domestic, but I definitely know of people traveling from SYD domestically as well. Also some Melbourne traffic still goes by road. To this extent, more LCC flights to CBR could be entirely stimulatory by reducing traffic leakage. This means more passengers, and thus more revenue, for CAG.


RG what do you think about international JQ out of CBR? Perhaps something like an A320 or the like to DPS to join the bali crowd. Lots of regional pax would travel to CBR over SYD/MEL if it was an option, perhaps from Wagga, the Southern Highlands and perhaps up towards Parkes even?

Test the waters, either charter or normal service such as June/July school holidays. Twice a week should do it maybe.

They would already have some kind of idea of who is travelling on SYD DPS and where they are from. Might be a good start ... says me the arnchair CEO ...
 
Sparker
Posts: 32
Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2018 11:54 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 10:15 am

myki wrote:
qf2220 wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
The ironic thing is that the biggest looser IMHO is Canberra Airpott. Very, very little corporate traffic will flow onto JQ/TT, so they won't really dilute QF's yields. At the moment though a lot of Canberrans traveling for leisure drive to SYD and fly from there. This is more common for international traffic than domestic, but I definitely know of people traveling from SYD domestically as well. Also some Melbourne traffic still goes by road. To this extent, more LCC flights to CBR could be entirely stimulatory by reducing traffic leakage. This means more passengers, and thus more revenue, for CAG.


RG what do you think about international JQ out of CBR? Perhaps something like an A320 or the like to DPS to join the bali crowd. Lots of regional pax would travel to CBR over SYD/MEL if it was an option, perhaps from Wagga, the Southern Highlands and perhaps up towards Parkes even?

Test the waters, either charter or normal service such as June/July school holidays. Twice a week should do it maybe.

They would already have some kind of idea of who is travelling on SYD DPS and where they are from. Might be a good start ... says me the arnchair CEO ...


As an equally armchair CEO, I suspect they'd actually do better with a QF flight CBR-DPS. Canberra has a high average income, given the larger-than-average proportion of professional workers, and a lot of FF members from government and business travel. But equally, they could test the waters with JQ and upgrade later if it works out.

I'd be expecting some CBR international routes on QF orJQ once the A321LR and XLRs arrive.
 
N91
Posts: 17
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 2:55 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 10:25 am

CraigAnderson wrote:
Amazing, and rather worrying too!

A Vietnam Airlines flight was within one minute of landing at Melbourne Airport on Thursday morning when air traffic controllers were shocked to discover the Boeing 787 Dreamliner’s landing gear was still up.
Air safety officials have launched an investigation into the incident, regarded as extremely serious because the plane came so close to the ground without landing gear having been put down.


https://www.theage.com.au/business/cons ... 52t3j.html


The article made it sound like there was no warning in the cockpit but the plane only descended to 675feet. “Too low gear” warning triggers once the aircraft gets below 500ft no? So even if atc didn’t notice they would have got a warning and gone around.

But still shouldn’t d have got to that point.
 
Pcoder
Posts: 165
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 11:19 am

i'm surprised the swing gates at CBR aren't used for one of it benefits; one domestic flight comes in, gate then switches to an international flight and jets off. Probably bit of management of the airlines and the airport being a bit too hostile to work together.
 
getluv
Posts: 594
Joined: Thu Jun 11, 2015 12:11 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 2:29 pm

Canberra is such a tough market. It’s a transient city for a lot of people who live there. It’s also has inverse demand. Meaning the city is dead during school holidays, and honestly can be dead on weekends.

It would actually make sense to promote Canberra as a destination in its own right in order to attract both full service and LC carriers to the Territory. The surrounding regions around Canberra are amazing.

Relying on people who live in Canberra does not work. Most people who live in Canberra are from Sydney and go back quite frequently.

The ACT Government and CBR do themselves no favours. There’s no campaigns. No promotion. There’s nothing out there to change the stigma that Canberra is boring. The people who live in the Canberra bubble think Braddon is like a mini Fitzroy. It’s not. I do acknowledge Canberra is way better than it use to be and can be very vibrant.

In saying that, the Government and the Airport don’t work with VA or QF in promoting the territory, nor work with NSW government to promote the surrounding regions. It’s a joke. I lived in Canberra for three years, I struggle to see why I would go back.

Pulling QR and SQ clearly hasn’t helped (it also annoys VA and QF) and has been a waste of money. According to BITRE, collectively they don’t even pull a 737 load of pax. I understand for QR it’s a convenience issue to get around a bilateral. Still, I wonder if the money could have been better spent.
I'm that bad type.
 
VHZNE
Posts: 88
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 20, 2019 4:24 am

OEI now wears Wallabies decals presumably for the rugby in Japan.
 
tullamarine
Posts: 2442
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 1999 1:14 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 20, 2019 5:05 am

getluv wrote:
Canberra is such a tough market. It’s a transient city for a lot of people who live there. It’s also has inverse demand. Meaning the city is dead during school holidays, and honestly can be dead on weekends.

It would actually make sense to promote Canberra as a destination in its own right in order to attract both full service and LC carriers to the Territory. The surrounding regions around Canberra are amazing.

Relying on people who live in Canberra does not work. Most people who live in Canberra are from Sydney and go back quite frequently.

The ACT Government and CBR do themselves no favours. There’s no campaigns. No promotion. There’s nothing out there to change the stigma that Canberra is boring. The people who live in the Canberra bubble think Braddon is like a mini Fitzroy. It’s not. I do acknowledge Canberra is way better than it use to be and can be very vibrant.

In saying that, the Government and the Airport don’t work with VA or QF in promoting the territory, nor work with NSW government to promote the surrounding regions. It’s a joke. I lived in Canberra for three years, I struggle to see why I would go back.

Pulling QR and SQ clearly hasn’t helped (it also annoys VA and QF) and has been a waste of money. According to BITRE, collectively they don’t even pull a 737 load of pax. I understand for QR it’s a convenience issue to get around a bilateral. Still, I wonder if the money could have been better spent.

I think we have seen from QR and SQ that there is little or no demand for direct international services to CBR. They only do it to crib another flight through SYD. Realistically few people come to AU just to visit Canberra. Even NZ doesn't bother and they would most likely have government traffic between WLG and CBR.

CBR is an awkward distance from SYD. It is too close for foreign airlines to bother with but too far to be used as a second Sydney airport. Its catchment area is limited as anyone past Goulburn would always be attracted to the frequencies offered by SYD and likewise anyone south of Holbrook would be similarly attracted to MEL.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
anstar
Posts: 3254
Joined: Sun Nov 23, 2003 3:49 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 20, 2019 5:08 am

CraigAnderson wrote:
From AusBT/ET, "Virgin Atlantic eyes Sydney, Auckland, Singapore in bold (and possibly bonkers) expansion plan" !

https://www.executivetraveller.com/virg ... nsion-plan


VS need to get profitable before they start expanding this way again.
 
moa999
Posts: 909
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:37 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 20, 2019 5:14 am

Just posturing for Heathrow Runway 3 rights...
Typical Branson era strategy.. announce then pullback. Like the A380s
 
budgetflyer
Posts: 35
Joined: Fri May 10, 2019 8:28 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 20, 2019 5:37 am

Sparker wrote:
myki wrote:
qf2220 wrote:

RG what do you think about international JQ out of CBR? Perhaps something like an A320 or the like to DPS to join the bali crowd. Lots of regional pax would travel to CBR over SYD/MEL if it was an option, perhaps from Wagga, the Southern Highlands and perhaps up towards Parkes even?

Test the waters, either charter or normal service such as June/July school holidays. Twice a week should do it maybe.

They would already have some kind of idea of who is travelling on SYD DPS and where they are from. Might be a good start ... says me the arnchair CEO ...


As an equally armchair CEO, I suspect they'd actually do better with a QF flight CBR-DPS. Canberra has a high average income, given the larger-than-average proportion of professional workers, and a lot of FF members from government and business travel. But equally, they could test the waters with JQ and upgrade later if it works out.

I'd be expecting some CBR international routes on QF orJQ once the A321LR and XLRs arrive.


Always thought that this would have been a natural fit for Pacific Blue (admittedly going back a little while here). Seem to recall that from around 2008 or so they began to launch many then-innovative routes (such as ADL-DPS/NAN, SYD-HLZ, PER-HKT etc), and with their big push into Bali around that time, CBR-DPS would have been a good market to try and develop.

Not sure how Virgin's DPS services stack up in light of their route review (I know VA's short-haul intl network is loss-making), but perhaps VA could run a red-eye a couple of times a week, using an aircraft that would otherwise be parked up overnight. VA recently launched DRW-DPS flights using an aircraft that was unused for a few hours in DPS a few days a week, so it would not be without precedent.

On a related note, could there be any potential for new routes / increased frequencies on existing routes as part of VA's upcoming network shakeup?
 
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CraigAnderson
Posts: 528
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 20, 2019 5:55 am

tullamarine wrote:
getluv wrote:
Even NZ doesn't bother and they would most likely have government traffic between WLG and CBR.


Well said and I find this is the most telling. You'd think the two capitals would be pretty profitable but if NZ hasn't bothered, and it has a great 'Seats To Suit' package, then there isn't much in the market to begin with.
 
smi0006
Posts: 2540
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2008 7:45 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 20, 2019 6:19 am

CraigAnderson wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
getluv wrote:
Even NZ doesn't bother and they would most likely have government traffic between WLG and CBR.


Well said and I find this is the most telling. You'd think the two capitals would be pretty profitable but if NZ hasn't bothered, and it has a great 'Seats To Suit' package, then there isn't much in the market to begin with.


I’ll be honest, and hate to be that guy - but can’t share details. However pricing is very much key, and events between CBR and NZ in the past that mean between two the relationship is very very sour.

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