getluv wrote:DeltaB717 wrote:It would be very close to a no-brainer for them, actually. The Minister's IASC Policy Statement requires the IASC to consider, in addition to whether a carrier is reasonably capable of operating the proposed service, whether allocating capacity in a particular way is in the public interest. Particularly following their own decision on QF/CX, the IASC would be very hard pressed to find that awarding all available HND capacity on the Australian side to a single carrier is in the public interest - noting, of course, that QF is partnered with JQ and JL in operating the vast majority of Australia - Japan services. I expect NH would also be looking at its legal options to appeal such a decision.
QF and JL are not really partners are they. Apart from a route here or there, there's virtually no relationship besides their shareholding in GK. Yes, they are in oneworld together but and some codeshare routes that is about it.
VA and NH's relationship to date is like VA presence in Japan, non-existent. Any co-operation with NH through a JV would take months to work through and get approval for not just in Australia but also Japan. Any JV-like corporation with NH would also give QF/JL impetus to also apply for their own. I am sure NH prefers JL being the weaker player.
The IASC would have egg on the face if they allocated VA a slot and they were unable to commence services by 29 March. Given VA would need to establish a Japan POS, marketing presence and operations all within months, this would be difficult. Even if they could, airfares are going to fall, which is great for consumers but is this what VA needs right now? Another route where they are going to lose another $5-10M a year.
While VA entering will be good for consumers, I don't see this being viable and strong business decision and will likely put SQ even more offside. They themselves carry a lot of connecting passengers via SIN.
Anyway, we will not have long to find out what VA does. The standard review/appeal process has been waived and will probably have a result in a few weeks as opposed the review period with QF/CX which took 5 months to resolve.
Very well articulated. There are number of pieces to this puzzle!
What I might add is that surely VA/NH would have been aware of the upcoming HND slot allocations a long time ago and it is possible they are well progressed in negotiation on any proposed JV or similar. This is hypothetical of course. If that were the case, is it possible they could move quickly on getting ACCC approval to cooperate? I’m not particularly confident of the chances that the Japanese and Australian regulators will have a JV approved in time to start 29 March 2020.