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soectre99
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Wed Sep 25, 2019 11:18 pm

WA govt set to announce a 3 x weekly China Eastern trial PVG-PER During January and February 2020. Wonder if it will actually eventuate this time.
 
redroo
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Wed Sep 25, 2019 11:28 pm

I can see why Virgin applied for HND but it does strike me as another case of flinging Planes around and hoping they will stick.

I don’t envy schurrahs (spelling?) job, however launching new international routes would be at the bottom of my list of things to do. If anything I would seriously be looking at closing the whole international operation down (or sticking to Bali).

Back to my armchair :-)
 
Sydscott
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Wed Sep 25, 2019 11:39 pm

redroo wrote:
I can see why Virgin applied for HND but it does strike me as another case of flinging Planes around and hoping they will stick.

I don’t envy schurrahs (spelling?) job, however launching new international routes would be at the bottom of my list of things to do. If anything I would seriously be looking at closing the whole international operation down (or sticking to Bali).

Back to my armchair :-)


VA would have seen a once off opportunity to grab a slot. The more interesting thing is that this effectively ties up the entirety of the A330 fleet on international flying ergo VA has less capacity in the Domestic market. So it'll be interesting to see that play out on Virgins marketshare and yield domestically because especially on the transcons out of PER its a huge advantage having widebodies.

Virgin has also stated its intention to enter into a reciprocal codeshare agreement with ANA on its services to and from Japan. I'd have thought that would also require IASC approval before it is implemented so even if Virgin was granted a Haneda slot I would question whether this is a viable route for them without the codeshare.
 
Pcoder
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Wed Sep 25, 2019 11:56 pm

I think with codeshares, the airlines involved can just signal intent and if any airlines have issues with it, they can issue a challenge. It's unlikely that they'll be a challenge on the VA-NH codeshare as they only have a small proportion of the Japan - Australia market and any challenge will likely be rejected.

If they are starting a joint venture, they would have to get Approval. If NH does expand its Australian services with VA, we might see QF and JL add a codeshare or two as they have been a bit limited in adding one due to the market share.
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Wed Sep 25, 2019 11:57 pm

Sydscott wrote:
The more interesting thing is that this effectively ties up the entirety of the A330 fleet on international flying ergo VA has less capacity in the Domestic market. So it'll be interesting to see that play out on Virgins marketshare and yield domestically because especially on the transcons out of PER its a huge advantage having widebodies.


They started it and so they can finish it - if they don't have WB on PER, QF won't see the need to also have WB on PER and will probably drop their A330s and redeploy them into Asia too.

Or VA just cedes that to QF and focuses on making profit with the traffic that doesn't want WB....
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 26, 2019 12:10 am

redroo wrote:
I can see why Virgin applied for HND but it does strike me as another case of flinging Planes around and hoping they will stick.

I don’t envy schurrahs (spelling?) job, however launching new international routes would be at the bottom of my list of things to do. If anything I would seriously be looking at closing the whole international operation down (or sticking to Bali).

Back to my armchair :-)


Bali is also questionable for VA.

Scurrah has singled out the LAX 77W operation (in conjunction with DL) as one of the few (if not only) international destinations actually making revenue for VA's international operations. While also at the same admitting that HKG has to be looked at (despite the recent VS JV approval).

Another option for VA's Bali operations is codesharing on GA and reducing Int'l operations to only LAX and AKL in conjunction with DL. Although drastic cutbacks/closing of VA Int'l is now moot with the proposed ANA partnership and recent strong support for the DL, VS partnerships.

https://amp.news.com.au/travel/travel-a ... GpXYZYgAXc
 
waoz1
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 26, 2019 12:13 am

soectre99 wrote:
WA govt set to announce a 3 x weekly China Eastern trial PVG-PER During January and February 2020. Wonder if it will actually eventuate this time.


Seeing its in the paper and the tourism minister is flogging it I think it would be. As we know politicians dont like egg on their faces if they can avoid it.
Not sure what a few weeks trail is going to achieve tho.
 
smi0006
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 26, 2019 12:16 am

qf2220 wrote:
Sydscott wrote:
The more interesting thing is that this effectively ties up the entirety of the A330 fleet on international flying ergo VA has less capacity in the Domestic market. So it'll be interesting to see that play out on Virgins marketshare and yield domestically because especially on the transcons out of PER its a huge advantage having widebodies.


They started it and so they can finish it - if they don't have WB on PER, QF won't see the need to also have WB on PER and will probably drop their A330s and redeploy them into Asia too.

Or VA just cedes that to QF and focuses on making profit with the traffic that doesn't want WB....


I’m not sure they started it - QF had 767s and 330s on Perth for years, VA just brought an international product to the market. I can’t see QF reconfig anything back to a domestic seat, and I feel they have already wound back elements of the inflight service a tad. I think VA needs to do the same for cost cutting.
M
 
smi0006
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 26, 2019 12:16 am

qf2220 wrote:
Sydscott wrote:
The more interesting thing is that this effectively ties up the entirety of the A330 fleet on international flying ergo VA has less capacity in the Domestic market. So it'll be interesting to see that play out on Virgins marketshare and yield domestically because especially on the transcons out of PER its a huge advantage having widebodies.


They started it and so they can finish it - if they don't have WB on PER, QF won't see the need to also have WB on PER and will probably drop their A330s and redeploy them into Asia too.

Or VA just cedes that to QF and focuses on making profit with the traffic that doesn't want WB....


I’m not sure they started it - QF had 767s and 330s on Perth for years, VA just brought an international product to the market. I can’t see QF reconfig anything back to a domestic seat, and I feel they have already wound back elements of the inflight service a tad. I think VA needs to do the same for cost cutting.
M
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 26, 2019 12:47 am

smi0006 wrote:
qf2220 wrote:
Sydscott wrote:
The more interesting thing is that this effectively ties up the entirety of the A330 fleet on international flying ergo VA has less capacity in the Domestic market. So it'll be interesting to see that play out on Virgins marketshare and yield domestically because especially on the transcons out of PER its a huge advantage having widebodies.


They started it and so they can finish it - if they don't have WB on PER, QF won't see the need to also have WB on PER and will probably drop their A330s and redeploy them into Asia too.

Or VA just cedes that to QF and focuses on making profit with the traffic that doesn't want WB....


I’m not sure they started it - QF had 767s and 330s on Perth for years, VA just brought an international product to the market. I can’t see QF reconfig anything back to a domestic seat, and I feel they have already wound back elements of the inflight service a tad. I think VA needs to do the same for cost cutting.
M


You are correct on the 767s, but VA stepped up and started with the international business class offering on a domestic route (sorry i wasn't explicit above). I don't see a problem if they drop this, and my point is that QF probably would follow suit as their provision of this level of service was only in response to VA..
 
a19901213
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 26, 2019 2:29 am

I believe regardless of what decision IASC make NH will still go for MEL.

ANA has always been trying to exploit destinations that are heavily invested by Japanese corporate especially big 3 Shosha (Trading houses) and banks.

Shosha invested heavily in BHP, iron ore mines, agricultural industries and infrastructure etc. Business demand is strong between PER/MEL and Tokyo.

There’s really no point making HND double daily for the sole purpose of fleet flexibility.
 
Sydscott
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 26, 2019 3:00 am

qf2220 wrote:
smi0006 wrote:
qf2220 wrote:

They started it and so they can finish it - if they don't have WB on PER, QF won't see the need to also have WB on PER and will probably drop their A330s and redeploy them into Asia too.

Or VA just cedes that to QF and focuses on making profit with the traffic that doesn't want WB....


I’m not sure they started it - QF had 767s and 330s on Perth for years, VA just brought an international product to the market. I can’t see QF reconfig anything back to a domestic seat, and I feel they have already wound back elements of the inflight service a tad. I think VA needs to do the same for cost cutting.
M


You are correct on the 767s, but VA stepped up and started with the international business class offering on a domestic route (sorry i wasn't explicit above). I don't see a problem if they drop this, and my point is that QF probably would follow suit as their provision of this level of service was only in response to VA..


I don't think QF will follow suit on this for a few reasons:

1) The flatbeds and widebodies give QF a premium advantage that Virgin won't have in the Domestic market. That helps to drive yield for QF but it'll be interesting to see what happens to Virgins;
2) QF have already re-deployed a number of A332's out of the Domestic market and continue to regularly sub A330 variants between International and Domestic. Having them all configured the same way with consistent service helps with that;
3) The cost of doing different meals and service style for domestic and international business, at the volume QF does it, is likely more efficient and cheaper if they are all the same rather than different.

So I think for QF it's likely cheaper and easier for them, and likely better for their bottom line, to continue with business as normal.

For Virgin though this presents challenges. There are a 3 statements in particular in their IASC submission which I find interesting:

5.17 It is also worth noting that the slots for our Melbourne-Hong Kong services were secured on 9 February 2017 and our first flight was operated under five months later on 5 July 2017. While Hong Kong and Japan are different markets, our experience in Hong Kong will be leveraged to ensure we commence services to Haneda on 29 March 2020."

6.2.3 Allocation in favour of Virgin Australia would give us the opportunity to expand our international network through access to a highly desirable destination and large, fast growing market, while assisting us to return our international network to a position of financial sustainability.

6.2.17 Virgin Australia’s entry to the Hong Kong route in July 2017 drove a sharp decrease in average airfares and is evidence of the benefits that flow to consumers when we bring increased competition to a destination. We will be naturally incentivised to offer competitive fares on our new services to Haneda, as part of attracting passengers to travel with us as an alternative to the Qantas Group and stimulating travel between the two countries.

Lets examine those for a moment:

1) Yes HKG flights were started quickly but Virgins International division is not profitable and hasn't been for quite some time. So notwithstanding a quick startup of HKG and the cost involved Virgin is yet to recover any of those by way of positive cashflow from International;
2) "Assisting us to return out international network to a position of financial sustainabiltiy" implies that Virgins international network was at some point financially sustainable. I can't find where that point was, (and I mean that in a serious sense via searching of media releases and the like), and I don't see how a single daily sevice on a long haul route would somehow shift the dial on financial sustainabiltiy given the rest of the network. This feels like a BS statement.
3) It's very true that airfares reduced to Hong Kong once Virgin entered. It's also true to say that Virgin, according to its own IASC submission on the Hong Kong case, has the lowest loadfactor of the majors flying while also incurring significant startup losses which, again by their own abmission, have yet to be recouped via a profitable international division. So again, and this ties back to the 2 points above, how does this do anything to support "financial sustainability" at HND for VA?

Now it's likely that Virgin will get one of the slot pairs because that's just how the allocation system works. But alot of these statements they are making would seem to contradict other public statements made and other submission they've made to the IASC.
 
DeltaB717
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 26, 2019 3:04 am

a19901213 wrote:
I believe regardless of what decision IASC make NH will still go for MEL.

ANA has always been trying to exploit destinations that are heavily invested by Japanese corporate especially big 3 Shosha (Trading houses) and banks.

Shosha invested heavily in BHP, iron ore mines, agricultural industries and infrastructure etc. Business demand is strong between PER/MEL and Tokyo.

There’s really no point making HND double daily for the sole purpose of fleet flexibility.


I think you're right - NH has twin hubs in TYO so, if they wanted double daily on SYD, could run the 2nd frequency using the same airframe/seating configuration but to NRT instead of HND. The additional HND frequency would be more valuable at MEL, especially if VA is successful and they can hold QF to MEL-NRT.

As to why VA hasn't indicated in their application what NH intends to do with their HND allocation - it's not VA's information to tell, ultimately, and to the extent that VA needs to divulge that information for the IASC's purposes it would do so in a confidential version of / addendum to its application or, more likely, in the codeshare agreement. NH would not want that information public at the moment because (a) it may depend on VA's application to the IASC and (b) in any case, it would not want to signal its intentions to JL or QF at this point.
 
SYDSpotter
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 26, 2019 9:26 am

Sydscott wrote:
2) "Assisting us to return out international network to a position of financial sustainabiltiy" implies that Virgins international network was at some point financially sustainable. I can't find where that point was, (and I mean that in a serious sense via searching of media releases and the like).


This would've been back in the pre-USA service days, where they were serving NZ/Pacific (circa 2007) - so a long time ago !
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81819
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 26, 2019 12:30 pm

From where i sit the decision for Virgin and the HND slot should revolve around the ability of VA to sustain the route over the longer term. I'd suggest this is an opportunistic play from VA to capitalise on the 2020 Olympic games where demand will peak for a very short period of time.

If we consider the Hong Kong - Australia market is sigificantly bigger than the HND-Australia market, from history l can't see how VA could sustain this route over the longer term. Where they have a partner airline with a relatively diverse and established customer base in Hong Kong, they will have limited support from partner businesses in Japan.
 
qf002
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 26, 2019 12:41 pm

QF will end up with both slots, it's just a matter of whether that happens now or if they have to wait for VA to go bust to get the second one.
 
redroo
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 26, 2019 9:39 pm

travelhound wrote:
From where i sit the decision for Virgin and the HND slot should revolve around the ability of VA to sustain the route over the longer term. I'd suggest this is an opportunistic play from VA to capitalise on the 2020 Olympic games where demand will peak for a very short period of time.

If we consider the Hong Kong - Australia market is sigificantly bigger than the HND-Australia market, from history l can't see how VA could sustain this route over the longer term. Where they have a partner airline with a relatively diverse and established customer base in Hong Kong, they will have limited support from partner businesses in Japan.



Agree. And to qf002 point below the slots will likely return to QF some day. I wish Virgin well but I can’t see them sustaining the route in the long term. The aircraft will get flung on the route. It will make a loss. They will jump at the next new route in a few years time and move the aircraft there. It’s almost (but not quite) Norwegian-esque in behaviour.
 
Qantas16
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 26, 2019 10:04 pm

With LATAM due to leave OneWorld following DL's stake... what impact will we see this have on QF and the SCL route?

Whilst they are not the closest partners, they do seem to work together relatively closely on the SCL routes and would provide QF substantial feed out of SCL. However, at the same time, QF would provide LA significant feed in Australia to so might be in their best interest to keep a partnership going post-OW.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 26, 2019 11:08 pm

Qantas16 wrote:
With LATAM due to leave OneWorld following DL's stake... what impact will we see this have on QF and the SCL route?

Whilst they are not the closest partners, they do seem to work together relatively closely on the SCL routes and would provide QF substantial feed out of SCL. However, at the same time, QF would provide LA significant feed in Australia to so might be in their best interest to keep a partnership going post-OW.


I think it is in the best interests of both sides to maintain the status quo. There really isn't anyone to replace the other, and whether or not LA-QF codeshare should be of minimal interest to DL
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
Sydscott
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 26, 2019 11:36 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
Qantas16 wrote:
With LATAM due to leave OneWorld following DL's stake... what impact will we see this have on QF and the SCL route?

Whilst they are not the closest partners, they do seem to work together relatively closely on the SCL routes and would provide QF substantial feed out of SCL. However, at the same time, QF would provide LA significant feed in Australia to so might be in their best interest to keep a partnership going post-OW.


I think it is in the best interests of both sides to maintain the status quo. There really isn't anyone to replace the other, and whether or not LA-QF codeshare should be of minimal interest to DL


Agree. It's in neither of their interests to touch the QF-LA alliance and codeshares because there isn't anyone here that LA can replace that with.
 
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SeaEagle8
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 26, 2019 11:43 pm

redroo wrote:
travelhound wrote:
From where i sit the decision for Virgin and the HND slot should revolve around the ability of VA to sustain the route over the longer term. I'd suggest this is an opportunistic play from VA to capitalise on the 2020 Olympic games where demand will peak for a very short period of time.

If we consider the Hong Kong - Australia market is sigificantly bigger than the HND-Australia market, from history l can't see how VA could sustain this route over the longer term. Where they have a partner airline with a relatively diverse and established customer base in Hong Kong, they will have limited support from partner businesses in Japan.



Agree. And to qf002 point below the slots will likely return to QF some day. I wish Virgin well but I can’t see them sustaining the route in the long term. The aircraft will get flung on the route. It will make a loss. They will jump at the next new route in a few years time and move the aircraft there. It’s almost (but not quite) Norwegian-esque in behaviour.


VA will depend more heavily on transfer traffic which will put even more yield pressure on a start up route. We will have to wait and see the eventual decision but no question VA doesn’t have many cards to play with considering their limited fleet.
VA will also be competing with QF at BNE and JQ at OOL as well.
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 27, 2019 12:43 am

Qantas16 wrote:
With LATAM due to leave OneWorld following DL's stake... what impact will we see this have on QF and the SCL route?

Whilst they are not the closest partners, they do seem to work together relatively closely on the SCL routes and would provide QF substantial feed out of SCL. However, at the same time, QF would provide LA significant feed in Australia to so might be in their best interest to keep a partnership going post-OW.


Yeah i see no change for QF/LA at this stage - unless VA with DL's support wants to go a little out there and propose SCL..... Which if some of the VA Japan posts are to be beloved is their MO (though i don't think they're as crazy as others).

Id be interested to see the one world developments. If say AR joined, then QF and AR might come together through that, and i can see a slim possibility of QF back to EZE but this time with AR support given the alliance commonality. As I posted in the other thread, QF to SCL and EZE (once sufficient 789s come along) would be quite a nice South American network from Australia.
 
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 27, 2019 1:48 am

For what it's worth, which may not be much when you consider it's coming from a PR person:

Approached by Executive Traveller for comment, a Qantas spokesperson confirmed that “there are no changes to our codeshare with LATAM as a result of recent announcements.”
“Qantas and LATAM have agreed that the bilateral agreement we have works well for customers and we will look for opportunities to enhance it in future.”


https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... in-skyteam
 
smi0006
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 27, 2019 1:49 am

qf2220 wrote:
Qantas16 wrote:
With LATAM due to leave OneWorld following DL's stake... what impact will we see this have on QF and the SCL route?

Whilst they are not the closest partners, they do seem to work together relatively closely on the SCL routes and would provide QF substantial feed out of SCL. However, at the same time, QF would provide LA significant feed in Australia to so might be in their best interest to keep a partnership going post-OW.


Yeah i see no change for QF/LA at this stage - unless VA with DL's support wants to go a little out there and propose SCL..... Which if some of the VA Japan posts are to be beloved is their MO (though i don't think they're as crazy as others).

Id be interested to see the one world developments. If say AR joined, then QF and AR might come together through that, and i can see a slim possibility of QF back to EZE but this time with AR support given the alliance commonality. As I posted in the other thread, QF to SCL and EZE (once sufficient 789s come along) would be quite a nice South American network from Australia.


I can’t see QFs relationship with LA now being any different to their relationship with CZ and MU (who DL also owns a piece of) could change if DL was to purchase a share in VA... which to be honest given their portfolio if timing were right I could maybe now see happening. See how DL manages to swallow and settle LA.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 27, 2019 4:52 am

There's a Tiger A320 parked on the Fairbairn ramp at CBR. While I can't see the rego it would appear to VH-VNH which operated TT815 BNE-CBR yesterday (Thursday) but TT816 was cancelled and the aircraft hasn't left CBR since. Fair to assume that the aircraft has gone tech? Oddly enough, there doesn't appear to be any maintenance activity around the aircraft at all.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
VHZNE
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 27, 2019 7:07 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
There's a Tiger A320 parked on the Fairbairn ramp at CBR. While I can't see the rego it would appear to VH-VNH which operated TT815 BNE-CBR yesterday (Thursday) but TT816 was cancelled and the aircraft hasn't left CBR since. Fair to assume that the aircraft has gone tech? Oddly enough, there doesn't appear to be any maintenance activity around the aircraft at all.


Could be possible its waiting on parts maybe?
 
SYDSpotter
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 27, 2019 8:38 am

travelhound wrote:
From where i sit the decision for Virgin and the HND slot should revolve around the ability of VA to sustain the route over the longer term. I'd suggest this is an opportunistic play from VA to capitalise on the 2020 Olympic games where demand will peak for a very short period of time.

If we consider the Hong Kong - Australia market is sigificantly bigger than the HND-Australia market, from history l can't see how VA could sustain this route over the longer term. Where they have a partner airline with a relatively diverse and established customer base in Hong Kong, they will have limited support from partner businesses in Japan.


From Paul Scurrah's limited time as CEO of Virgin, his initial decisions would suggest otherwise. As much as Virgin has been a basketcase in recent years, I very much doubt VA is going to dive headfirst into a market for an event which lasts 2 weeks... If JB was still at the helm, then I wouldn't be surprised. But Scurrah has shelved a number of JB's "vanity projects".

Opportunistic, yes, but international HND slots don't come around very often, so why wouldn't you apply for a slot.

As to comparisons with HKG, sure HKG is a much bigger market, but it's also served by multiple daily services flown by CX and QF out of SYD/MEL, so its not surprising that VA have struggled to match the frequency offered by CX and QF.

With HND/NRT, there is currently no single airline (JL, NH, JQ, QF) who offer multiple daily frequencies into NRT/HND from one single Australian city, so a single daily VA service is not at a disadvantage (with regards to multiple frequencies) compared with HKG.
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81819
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 27, 2019 9:11 am

I don't disagree with your argument. It is very plausible.

On the other hand I suspect VA's application is about coming to the party, but leaving early. They need to present some sort of application to demonstrate their commitment to international flying.

As for the new CEO, I suspect his short term commitment will revolve around restructuring the domestic route network. In aĺl honesty the international unit is a very first small airline that has little relevance to the domestic airline.
 
FL420FT
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 27, 2019 9:31 am

qf002 wrote:
QF will end up with both slots, it's just a matter of whether that happens now or if they have to wait for VA to go bust to get the second one.


If the scenario of VA pulls out in a couple of years, will this slot automatically default to QF or will QF have to apply for it through IASC ?
 
a320fan
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 27, 2019 9:55 am

Seems there was a terrible day of operations at MEL, with most flights departing with delays of nearly an hour or even more right from early in the 7AM departure wave. Steady rain showers set in for much of the afternoon, but the delays seem to have started long before that hit. Delays seemed equally spread across all airlines, with even most international departures suffering.

Image
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D7A330
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 27, 2019 10:47 am

VHZNE wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
There's a Tiger A320 parked on the Fairbairn ramp at CBR. While I can't see the rego it would appear to VH-VNH which operated TT815 BNE-CBR yesterday (Thursday) but TT816 was cancelled and the aircraft hasn't left CBR since. Fair to assume that the aircraft has gone tech? Oddly enough, there doesn't appear to be any maintenance activity around the aircraft at all.


Could be possible its waiting on parts maybe?


I heard from a source that the aircraft suffered damage due to a bird strike.
 
log0008
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 27, 2019 10:56 am

a320fan wrote:
Seems there was a terrible day of operations at MEL, with most flights departing with delays of nearly an hour or even more right from early in the 7AM departure wave. Steady rain showers set in for much of the afternoon, but the delays seem to have started long before that hit. Delays seemed equally spread across all airlines, with even most international departures suffering.

Image


Strong northerly winds mean only RWY 34 was active. Was significant holding during the morning rush.
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sat Sep 28, 2019 1:15 am

SYDSpotter wrote:
From Paul Scurrah's limited time as CEO of Virgin, his initial decisions would suggest otherwise.

Opportunistic, yes, but international HND slots don't come around very often, so why wouldn't you apply for a slot.


Scurrah is not an airline person (though he is a transport person by career). Does he fully understand the intricacies? Or is he acting on advice from his reports on this HND application? Is this a reasoned opportunistic play by an organisation seizing an opportunity? Or is it another vanity project that the underlings are cooking up and Scurrah doesn't know the detail to shut down?

Personally I think its closer to the former than the latter, though someone told me once (in one of my 'ah-ha' moments in life) that a company isn't just one person but is many and whilst Scurrahs name is on this, some of the same people that were part of Team Borghetti are in VA and they may still be being reckless too.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sat Sep 28, 2019 10:54 am

qf2220 wrote:
Scurrah is not an airline person (though he is a transport person by career). Does he fully understand the intricacies? Or is he acting on advice from his reports on this HND application? Is this a reasoned opportunistic play by an organisation seizing an opportunity? Or is it another vanity project that the underlings are cooking up and Scurrah doesn't know the detail to shut down?
.


So I guess Virgin hired the wrong person then? :?

Given starting or terminating routes is a key part of running an airline, we should doubt every move VA makes because their CEO does not have an aviation background... :roll:

Of course JB had been in aviation all his life and look what he achieved.
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sat Sep 28, 2019 1:52 pm

I think Scurrah is doing great considering the s**tshow he’s been handed. Having a non-AV person at the helm is possibly what VA needs at the moment. However, I think he’s trying to do too much too quickly.

Why announce a network review and put your hand up for HND slots half way through. In my opinion, VAI should have waited and requested that the IASC cap the length of time for both slots to 1-2 years so it could reassess its situation. While VAI might be small, it can do a lot of a damage to VA’s cash and bottom line. Burning another $5-30M in profits over the foreseeable future for a route that they could have easily de-risked and signed a JV with ANA would have been a much better outcome.

Flights to Japan aren’t expensive and as lucrative as they once were. This is where incumbents will have an advantage.

I also don’t understand using BNE. I’m sure the QLD government and BNE airport are paying a pretty penny. However, they don’t use A330s on BNE-PER so it’ll be interesting how they rotate aircraft. If they pull it off MEL/SYD-HKG, well the HKG situation couldn’t come at a worse time. I doubt many airlines will want to buy/lease the slots from VA at the moment.
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sat Sep 28, 2019 2:18 pm

The vast majority of the company (both employees and indeed the board) remains the same

But I suspect Scurragh has seem pretty clear targets from the board - at a guess no more equity and improved profitability.

And the CEO can drive a top-down strategy.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sat Sep 28, 2019 5:38 pm

The EK MEL call center closes in Oct... About 80 staff affected.
http://www.asu.asn.au/news/categories/o ... tober-2019
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sat Sep 28, 2019 9:04 pm

getluv wrote:
I also don’t understand using BNE. I’m sure the QLD government and BNE airport are paying a pretty penny. However, they don’t use A330s on BNE-PER so it’ll be interesting how they rotate aircraft. If they pull it off MEL/SYD-HKG, well the HKG situation couldn’t come at a worse time. I doubt many airlines will want to buy/lease the slots from VA at the moment.


VA have been using the A332 on the BNE-PER-BNE runs for quite a few months lately, only a few days each week, mainly Fridays, Saturdays and Saturdays. It’s quit unmistakeable seeing fly over home in Ipswich, particularly on a Saturday as I live under the transcon flight path into BNE.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sat Sep 28, 2019 10:30 pm

And only just a couple of years ago most PER-East coast flights were all A330s. Now BNE-PER sees about one per day on QF and a couple per week only on VA. SYD/MEL-PER maybe about half the flights on VA and a majority of QF still on A330s.
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 29, 2019 12:28 am

Bluebird191 wrote:
getluv wrote:
I also don’t understand using BNE. I’m sure the QLD government and BNE airport are paying a pretty penny. However, they don’t use A330s on BNE-PER so it’ll be interesting how they rotate aircraft. If they pull it off MEL/SYD-HKG, well the HKG situation couldn’t come at a worse time. I doubt many airlines will want to buy/lease the slots from VA at the moment.


VA have been using the A332 on the BNE-PER-BNE runs for quite a few months lately, only a few days each week, mainly Fridays, Saturdays and Saturdays. It’s quit unmistakeable seeing fly over home in Ipswich, particularly on a Saturday as I live under the transcon flight path into BNE.


I stand corrected. Reviewing services in October and November, there’s only going to be one weekly rotation through BNE on Sunday and two during January. They’re going to have to rotate aircraft more frequently into BNE if they want to start HND.
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 29, 2019 1:04 am

getluv wrote:
Bluebird191 wrote:
getluv wrote:
I also don’t understand using BNE. I’m sure the QLD government and BNE airport are paying a pretty penny. However, they don’t use A330s on BNE-PER so it’ll be interesting how they rotate aircraft. If they pull it off MEL/SYD-HKG, well the HKG situation couldn’t come at a worse time. I doubt many airlines will want to buy/lease the slots from VA at the moment.


VA have been using the A332 on the BNE-PER-BNE runs for quite a few months lately, only a few days each week, mainly Fridays, Saturdays and Saturdays. It’s quit unmistakeable seeing fly over home in Ipswich, particularly on a Saturday as I live under the transcon flight path into BNE.


I stand corrected. Reviewing services in October and November, there’s only going to be one weekly rotation through BNE on Sunday and two during January. They’re going to have to rotate aircraft more frequently into BNE if they want to start HND.


In terms of VA upgauging some BNE-PER services to 332, Blue Swan reports PER domestic pax were up over ten percent in August; however, it is important to understand that this growth was driven by mining routes to KGI, ZNE, KTA etc. and the new HBA service, which had infinite growth off a zero base by definition — the growth on routes to the East Coast metropolises, including BNE, has actually been negative.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 29, 2019 1:10 am

Blue Swan reports tourist visitation to Tasmania from Western Australia increased by 12 percent following the introduction of VA's PER-HBA service.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 29, 2019 2:30 am

soectre99 wrote:
WA govt set to announce a 3 x weekly China Eastern trial PVG-PER During January and February 2020. Wonder if it will actually eventuate this time.


This has indeed been confirmed.. MU265/266 PVG-PER to be operated by an A332.

https://www.perthairport.com.au/Home/co ... ghai-trial
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 29, 2019 2:59 am

getluv wrote:
They’re going to have to rotate aircraft more frequently into BNE if they want to start HND.


Not really, so long as they can get well timed slots (the great unknown here) then BNE-HND can be served with one frame. So long as that frame doesn't go tech they will only need to rotate it once per week (or even less) like how QF are currently serving SYD-HKG and previously rotated a 747 into BNE over LAX once per week, meaning each aircraft did BNE-LAX-JFK for two weeks at time.

The slot conference for IATA Summer 2020 season is the first week of November, which is why IASC want the process finalised by 31 October. Until then it's very much up in the air what slot times the new services which actually receive. Delta and United have already started selling their new services starting in March 2020 but the schedule they are currently selling is nothing more than their wishlist for Santa.
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 29, 2019 8:26 am

TasFlyer wrote:
budgetflyer wrote:
TasFlyer wrote:

One would think HBA could be in line for increased frequencies given it has yet again performed the best of the top 10 airports on the latest BITRE figures for July, which are available at: https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoing/domestic_airline_activity-monthly_publications.aspx

This data shows the same story from past months: the domestic market is stagnant overall, with some markets growing while others decline. The moving average domestic total graph on page three is quite stark.

One further comment about SYD-MCY, which has been one of the strongest performing routes of late: current schedules show JQ dropping a service just prior to the Christmas/New Year peak — is a subsidy due to expire then?


Perhaps - VA have certainly helped contribute to the growth of HBA pax numbers with extra BNE and SYD services as well as the launch of HBA-PER flights. Speaking of this route, does anyone have any idea how it is performing? I certainly hope to see it survive VA's network rationalisation.


HBA-PER appears to be performing well. The usual three services per week have been increased to five for this week, and then four per week for the remainder of NS19. Interestingly, these increases were made after Scurrah announced domestic cutbacks earlier this year, which is a positive sign. Contrast this though with the lack so far of any increase on this route over Christmas/New Year — it seems very inconsistent given HBA-MEL, HBA-SYD, and HBA-BNE have received the usual increases; yet HBA-PER, which increased up to six per week last Christmas/New Year, remains at three services per week. Hopefully they won't just milk it over peak season and then drop it; there's a lot of new hotel rooms opening up in HBA during 2020, which has traditionally been the limiting factor for growth.


Loads on PER-HBA have been quite consistent throughout the first 12 months and they are what I consider a reasonable level. It is also good to see additional frequencies being added through school holidays
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 29, 2019 8:39 am

SCFlyer wrote:
If VA's application for BNE-HND is to be approved, I wonder which routes/services on the A330 will be cut/downgauged to accomodate this? One of the SYD/MEL-HKG flights or an aircraft off the SYD/MEL-PER Transcon roster?


I suspect it will be a bit of both. Given the current situation with HKG both MEL and SYD will see a reduction in services. As for transcon services, for most of the year there have only be 3 A332's flying a day between PER and MEL/SYD. Over the past 6 months the A332 has been used more on SYD and less on MEL. Apart from busy peak periods, VA has used the fourth A332 for maintenance and installing WIFI, only XFD is without WIFI which I would expect would be done later in October/November.
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 29, 2019 8:51 am

jupiter2 wrote:

VA haven't shown any interest in operating to Japan until these slots have come up, there hasn't been anything stopping them from flying to other Japanese airports in the past, so it could be seen as an attempt to cherry pick a route when there are viable alternatives already available for them to try. Having said that Japan can be a tough market and getting a slot at HND is certainly no guarantee of a successful route, even if with the backing of the strongest Japanese carrier.


Are you sure about that? VA has been working on this for longer than you may want to believe, it is just that it was not public knowledge at the time
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 29, 2019 8:57 am

Great to finally see MU in PER - albeit for a short period. Hope the trial proves successful and we get year round services.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 29, 2019 9:06 am

A350OZ wrote:
I don’t see NH moving NRT-PER to HND. Makes no sense as they are uncontested and that will likely stay that way for a while.

Also, I think their new HND slot will be MEL, not a second SYD. Two reasons: 1) offer the only MEL-HND service (assuming QF does SYD 2daily), rather than the fifth service from SYD (with one already operated by NH), and 2) when looking at VA and NH combined, they would then offer services to SYD, MEL, BNE and PER.

One reason for SYD though would be aircraft utilisation. That NH bird sits there all day at the moment.


I agree that PER will stay with NRT. When I first heard about VA's application which was about a week before BNE-HND was confirmed as the route being interested in I thought it would be MEL-HND however I can see why BNE was chosen. Part of the case VA has made includes a passenger flying NH being able to start at one city and leave from another one using VA's domestic network, something that is already done by QF with the EK or MU or any other partners. NH will likely start MEL-HND with a 184 seat 788 which would not be to difficult to fill. PER-NRT has done quite well for the first month so a HND-MEL flight should do well even with the competition from JL and QF.
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 29, 2019 9:24 am

Sydscott wrote:
redroo wrote:
I can see why Virgin applied for HND but it does strike me as another case of flinging Planes around and hoping they will stick.

I don’t envy schurrahs (spelling?) job, however launching new international routes would be at the bottom of my list of things to do. If anything I would seriously be looking at closing the whole international operation down (or sticking to Bali).

Back to my armchair :-)


VA would have seen a once off opportunity to grab a slot. The more interesting thing is that this effectively ties up the entirety of the A330 fleet on international flying ergo VA has less capacity in the Domestic market. So it'll be interesting to see that play out on Virgins marketshare and yield domestically because especially on the transcons out of PER its a huge advantage having widebodies.

Virgin has also stated its intention to enter into a reciprocal codeshare agreement with ANA on its services to and from Japan. I'd have thought that would also require IASC approval before it is implemented so even if Virgin was granted a Haneda slot I would question whether this is a viable route for them without the codeshare.


Typically if VA takes a A332 off PER, the existing flight is downgraded plus where required an additional service is added.
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