qf789 wrote:

jupiter2 wrote:

VA haven't shown any interest in operating to Japan until these slots have come up, there hasn't been anything stopping them from flying to other Japanese airports in the past, so it could be seen as an attempt to cherry pick a route when there are viable alternatives already available for them to try. Having said that Japan can be a tough market and getting a slot at HND is certainly no guarantee of a successful route, even if with the backing of the strongest Japanese carrier.

Are you sure about that? VA has been working on this for longer than you may want to believe, it is just that it was not public knowledge at the time

So I take it from your comment that you think that VA would have been prepared to start a NRT service if HND slots hadn't come up ?

jupiter2 wrote:

qf789 wrote:

jupiter2 wrote:

VA haven't shown any interest in operating to Japan until these slots have come up, there hasn't been anything stopping them from flying to other Japanese airports in the past, so it could be seen as an attempt to cherry pick a route when there are viable alternatives already available for them to try. Having said that Japan can be a tough market and getting a slot at HND is certainly no guarantee of a successful route, even if with the backing of the strongest Japanese carrier.

Are you sure about that? VA has been working on this for longer than you may want to believe, it is just that it was not public knowledge at the time

So I take it from your comment that you think that VA would have been prepared to start a NRT service if HND slots hadn't come up ?

I find that hard to believe. NH had been long seeking partnership with VA with no response from VA. The VA/NH codeshare and FFP cooperation would have been bedded down before NH started PER-NRT, you would have thought.

VA is not in expansion mode. They have no widebody aircraft on order. They have 6 A330s and 5 77Ws. In order for VA to have been working on any long haul expansion they would have to pull the aircraft off (an) existing route(s). They have been bleeding for years and are not in a strong position to compete.

qf2220 wrote:

SYDSpotter wrote:

From Paul Scurrah's limited time as CEO of Virgin, his initial decisions would suggest otherwise.

Opportunistic, yes, but international HND slots don't come around very often, so why wouldn't you apply for a slot.

Scurrah is not an airline person (though he is a transport person by career). Does he fully understand the intricacies? Or is he acting on advice from his reports on this HND application? Is this a reasoned opportunistic play by an organisation seizing an opportunity? Or is it another vanity project that the underlings are cooking up and Scurrah doesn't know the detail to shut down?

Personally I think its closer to the former than the latter, though someone told me once (in one of my 'ah-ha' moments in life) that a company isn't just one person but is many and whilst Scurrahs name is on this, some of the same people that were part of Team Borghetti are in VA and they may still be being reckless too.

Scurrah has being a great job so far. He is well liked by everyone at VA. Having talked to lots of people within VA the 2 common themes are JB trashed the airline and secondly change is required. Change is currently taking place which includes reviewing the current network of which some changes have been made already and looking at new routes both domestic and international. Again I will reiterate Tokyo was being considered and being worked on prior to the HND slots being awarded, for a considerable period of time as well

qf789 wrote:

qf2220 wrote:

SYDSpotter wrote:

From Paul Scurrah's limited time as CEO of Virgin, his initial decisions would suggest otherwise.

Opportunistic, yes, but international HND slots don't come around very often, so why wouldn't you apply for a slot.

Scurrah is not an airline person (though he is a transport person by career). Does he fully understand the intricacies? Or is he acting on advice from his reports on this HND application? Is this a reasoned opportunistic play by an organisation seizing an opportunity? Or is it another vanity project that the underlings are cooking up and Scurrah doesn't know the detail to shut down?

Personally I think its closer to the former than the latter, though someone told me once (in one of my 'ah-ha' moments in life) that a company isn't just one person but is many and whilst Scurrahs name is on this, some of the same people that were part of Team Borghetti are in VA and they may still be being reckless too.

Scurrah has being a great job so far. He is well liked by everyone at VA. Having talked to lots of people within VA the 2 common themes are JB trashed the airline and secondly change is required. Change is currently taking place which includes reviewing the current network of which some changes have been made already and looking at new routes both domestic and international. Again I will reiterate Tokyo was being considered and being worked on prior to the HND slots being awarded, for a considerable period of time as well

Great news. Without breaking any confidentiality, can you expand at all on the possible new domestic routes — is it new ports, re-opening of previously served routes, or new routes between existing ports? What sort of timeframe is it before these commence and when does the new COO, who will be responsible for the network review, begin?

SeaEagle8 wrote:

VA is not in expansion mode. They have no widebody aircraft on order. They have 6 A330s and 5 77Ws. In order for VA to have been working on any long haul expansion they would have to pull the aircraft off (an) existing route(s).

Absolutely. They are not in expansion mode, they are in what some have termed a "right-sizing" mode and I believe that is the bets description, it applies mainly to the airline as a business, as a company, but it also applies to the network in terms of finding the 'right' routes. LAX are clearly a good fit, HKG I'm not so sure about. It would be up in the air as to what if any domestic routes would be cut.

What’s all this talk about Scurrah not being an aviation person? He has held roles at Ansett and Qantas in his career.

Here’s also a recent interview he did where he talks about his vision for the airline: https://wayfarer.travel/wayfarer-tv-exc ... ht-future/

Looks like both QF94 and QF36 have quite significant delays atm, leaving no A380 in MEL early enough to operate QF93 on time. Departure has been pushed back by an hour already to 10am, but with the first A380 now underway and only scheduled to land after 9:00am, I do not see this happening either.

Does QF have any spares at SYD to ferry across tomorrow morning?

xiaotung wrote:

jupiter2 wrote:

qf789 wrote:

Are you sure about that? VA has been working on this for longer than you may want to believe, it is just that it was not public knowledge at the time

So I take it from your comment that you think that VA would have been prepared to start a NRT service if HND slots hadn't come up ?

I find that hard to believe. NH had been long seeking partnership with VA with no response from VA. The VA/NH codeshare and FFP cooperation would have been bedded down before NH started PER-NRT, you would have thought.

SQ drawing back further involvement from VA would've helped greatly as well (on top of JB's departure). VA were allegedly under direct instruction from SQ and/or EY on who they "partner" and "not partner" with. The partnerships the equity mob couldn't "touch" were the pre-equity arrangements with DL and VX which was arranged before the likes of NZ, SQ, etc got involved.

Financial issues of their own (EY) and/or the VA boardroom drama had both parties gradually draw back hands-on involvement in VA following the 'capacity war' and NZ's exit.

IIRC, AC did complain about having to deal with SQ to get a partnership between AC and VA going.

A350OZ wrote:

Looks like both QF94 and QF36 have quite significant delays atm, leaving no A380 in MEL early enough to operate QF93 on time. Departure has been pushed back by an hour already to 10am, but with the first A380 now underway and only scheduled to land after 9:00am, I do not see this happening either.

Does QF have any spares at SYD to ferry across tomorrow morning?

QF35 seems to have AOGed in MEL and the flight has been cancelled along with QF36 so OQF is available if it's serviceable by tomorrow.

qf789 wrote:

Are you sure about that? VA has been working on this for longer than you may want to believe, it is just that it was not public knowledge at the time

I would assume this. Most airlines would be planning for routes that may or may not start due to the paperwork and planning that is required to support the business case and regulatory process. However, I do wonder how serious VA was if HND slots had not become available.

qf789 wrote:

SCFlyer wrote:

If VA's application for BNE-HND is to be approved, I wonder which routes/services on the A330 will be cut/downgauged to accomodate this? One of the SYD/MEL-HKG flights or an aircraft off the SYD/MEL-PER Transcon roster?

I suspect it will be a bit of both. Given the current situation with HKG both MEL and SYD will see a reduction in services.

Under the use it or lose it rule, VA can only reduce HKG so much.

qf789 wrote:

Sydscott wrote:

redroo wrote:

I can see why Virgin applied for HND but it does strike me as another case of flinging Planes around and hoping they will stick.

I don’t envy schurrahs (spelling?) job, however launching new international routes would be at the bottom of my list of things to do. If anything I would seriously be looking at closing the whole international operation down (or sticking to Bali).

Back to my armchair

VA would have seen a once off opportunity to grab a slot. The more interesting thing is that this effectively ties up the entirety of the A330 fleet on international flying ergo VA has less capacity in the Domestic market. So it'll be interesting to see that play out on Virgins marketshare and yield domestically because especially on the transcons out of PER its a huge advantage having widebodies.

Virgin has also stated its intention to enter into a reciprocal codeshare agreement with ANA on its services to and from Japan. I'd have thought that would also require IASC approval before it is implemented so even if Virgin was granted a Haneda slot I would question whether this is a viable route for them without the codeshare.

Typically if VA takes a A332 off PER, the existing flight is downgraded plus where required an additional service is added.

Going to be controversial here... if virgin want to continue with long haul, the take all the A330s off Perth and use them to provide a consistent daily network from the eastern states. We sand gropers like the widebodies but we will suck it up.

And being really controversial, double down on Melbourne - Australia’s second city. The 6 a330s and 5 777 could provide a decent network from Melbourne. Daily flights across Asia and daily to LAX and SFO. Be Melbournes airline and leave Qantas to Sydney. Sorry Brisbane.

SYDSpotter wrote:

So I guess Virgin hired the wrong person then?

Given starting or terminating routes is a key part of running an airline, we should doubt every move VA makes because their CEO does not have an aviation background...

Of course JB had been in aviation all his life and look what he achieved.

No no not saying that Scurrah is the wrong person (my post says nothing of the sort) and definitely take your point on JB. But as a person who has come into an industry without coming up through that industry (a different one, not aviation), I have relied on the advice of people who have been in it, and who have been in the company before I arrived and in those situations you are relying on people who were part of the previous decision making regime. Now ultimately the end decision is his which might be a different decision to what JB makes, so his judgement comes into it, but all I'm wondering re HND is if it is a reasoned decision, or is he relying on advice (that JB might also have) from people who haven't been able to string together a profitable international network over the last 10 years or so, and if the latter, will he have the ability to detect this? Because by one reading you could say the HND application is a knee-jerk, opportunistic operation governed by the ethos that 'we want to be mini-QF', but on anther reading it can be a sound investment. I don't know which, and I'm really curious to know how it is working in the VA decision chamber.

Singapore 777 wrote:

A350OZ wrote:

Looks like both QF94 and QF36 have quite significant delays atm, leaving no A380 in MEL early enough to operate QF93 on time. Departure has been pushed back by an hour already to 10am, but with the first A380 now underway and only scheduled to land after 9:00am, I do not see this happening either.

Does QF have any spares at SYD to ferry across tomorrow morning?

QF35 seems to have AOGed in MEL and the flight has been cancelled along with QF36 so OQF is available if it's serviceable by tomorrow.

Thanks Singapore777, it is indeed OQF sitting at the gate now awaiting departure as QF93. Interesting how they knew yesterday afternoon already that they couldn't fix it for a 9am departure but had to push that back by an hour. I got the message about the delay from QF around 3pm, and don't get me wrong I really appreciate how proactive they are with this. Was able to sleep an extra hour this morning

redroo wrote:

Going to be controversial here... if virgin want to continue with long haul, the take all the A330s off Perth and use them to provide a consistent daily network from the eastern states. We sand gropers like the widebodies but we will suck it up.

And being really controversial, double down on Melbourne - Australia’s second city. The 6 a330s and 5 777 could provide a decent network from Melbourne. Daily flights across Asia and daily to LAX and SFO. Be Melbournes airline and leave Qantas to Sydney. Sorry Brisbane.

While MEL based and long-time VA Platinum myself, as much as I'd like to see this I think that ship has sailed. While QF clearly has a strong focus on SYD, they have built up MEL again nicely. If VA would try it then QF would counter, and both would be worse-off long term. They should have done this around 2012, when QF intl out of MEL was really weak. Now it's too late.

I agree with taking the 330s off domestic and building more intl services though, out of all three ports - MEL, SYD and BNE. Japan with NH partnership, keep HKG, maybe start ICN together with KE. But that's my armchair advice only.

A350OZ wrote:

redroo wrote:

Going to be controversial here... if virgin want to continue with long haul, the take all the A330s off Perth and use them to provide a consistent daily network from the eastern states. We sand gropers like the widebodies but we will suck it up.

And being really controversial, double down on Melbourne - Australia’s second city. The 6 a330s and 5 777 could provide a decent network from Melbourne. Daily flights across Asia and daily to LAX and SFO. Be Melbournes airline and leave Qantas to Sydney. Sorry Brisbane.

While MEL based and long-time VA Platinum myself, as much as I'd like to see this I think that ship has sailed. While QF clearly has a strong focus on SYD, they have built up MEL again nicely. If VA would try it then QF would counter, and both would be worse-off long term. They should have done this around 2012, when QF intl out of MEL was really weak. Now it's too late.

I agree with taking the 330s off domestic and building more intl services though, out of all three ports - MEL, SYD and BNE. Japan with NH partnership, keep HKG, maybe start ICN together with KE. But that's my armchair advice only.

I’d agree also that that ship has probably sailed too.

Add it to the long list of poor decisions by Godfrey and Borghetti.

A350OZ wrote:

redroo wrote:

Going to be controversial here... if virgin want to continue with long haul, the take all the A330s off Perth and use them to provide a consistent daily network from the eastern states. We sand gropers like the widebodies but we will suck it up.

And being really controversial, double down on Melbourne - Australia’s second city. The 6 a330s and 5 777 could provide a decent network from Melbourne. Daily flights across Asia and daily to LAX and SFO. Be Melbournes airline and leave Qantas to Sydney. Sorry Brisbane.

While MEL based and long-time VA Platinum myself, as much as I'd like to see this I think that ship has sailed. While QF clearly has a strong focus on SYD, they have built up MEL again nicely. If VA would try it then QF would counter, and both would be worse-off long term. They should have done this around 2012, when QF intl out of MEL was really weak. Now it's too late.

I agree with taking the 330s off domestic and building more intl services though, out of all three ports - MEL, SYD and BNE. Japan with NH partnership, keep HKG, maybe start ICN together with KE. But that's my armchair advice only.

I’d agree also that that ship has probably sailed too.

Add it to the long list of poor decisions by Godfrey and Borghetti.

redroo wrote:

qf789 wrote:

Sydscott wrote:

VA would have seen a once off opportunity to grab a slot. The more interesting thing is that this effectively ties up the entirety of the A330 fleet on international flying ergo VA has less capacity in the Domestic market. So it'll be interesting to see that play out on Virgins marketshare and yield domestically because especially on the transcons out of PER its a huge advantage having widebodies.

Virgin has also stated its intention to enter into a reciprocal codeshare agreement with ANA on its services to and from Japan. I'd have thought that would also require IASC approval before it is implemented so even if Virgin was granted a Haneda slot I would question whether this is a viable route for them without the codeshare.

Typically if VA takes a A332 off PER, the existing flight is downgraded plus where required an additional service is added.

Going to be controversial here... if virgin want to continue with long haul, the take all the A330s off Perth and use them to provide a consistent daily network from the eastern states. We sand gropers like the widebodies but we will suck it up.

And being really controversial, double down on Melbourne - Australia’s second city. The 6 a330s and 5 777 could provide a decent network from Melbourne. Daily flights across Asia and daily to LAX and SFO. Be Melbournes airline and leave Qantas to Sydney. Sorry Brisbane.

I get your point but the problem is SYD gets more inbound traffic than MEL. Risky move to cutoff that revenue potential.

LAX was singled out by Scurrah himself as one of the few (if not only) international destination making revenue for VA (in conjunction with the JV with DL), so pulling out of SYD-LAX (even with UA reducing flights on the same route in the off-season) would be very risky.

A350OZ wrote:

redroo wrote:

Going to be controversial here... if virgin want to continue with long haul, the take all the A330s off Perth and use them to provide a consistent daily network from the eastern states. We sand gropers like the widebodies but we will suck it up.

And being really controversial, double down on Melbourne - Australia’s second city. The 6 a330s and 5 777 could provide a decent network from Melbourne. Daily flights across Asia and daily to LAX and SFO. Be Melbournes airline and leave Qantas to Sydney. Sorry Brisbane.

While MEL based and long-time VA Platinum myself, as much as I'd like to see this I think that ship has sailed. While QF clearly has a strong focus on SYD, they have built up MEL again nicely. If VA would try it then QF would counter, and both would be worse-off long term. They should have done this around 2012, when QF intl out of MEL was really weak. Now it's too late.

I agree with taking the 330s off domestic and building more intl services though, out of all three ports - MEL, SYD and BNE. Japan with NH partnership, keep HKG, maybe start ICN together with KE. But that's my armchair advice only.

I am just not convinced that pulling 332s off domestic will make more money flying international. Domestic is profitable for VA while international is not. Why would they move their assets to make a loss?

Scurrah and VA should focus on putting aircraft where the best yield can be achieved. Although from a competition perspective it’s great for them to apply for HND, I don’t think it will be great for their bottom line. Hopefully I can be proven wrong though!

A decision still has to be made by the IASC. HND slots don't come up very often. It is perceived as the superior airport due to its location to central Tokyo compared to Narita. Perhaps VA was looking at NRT as the next intl destination and when the HND slots came up they maybe didn't see a choice. A now or never case. If awarded, BNE-HND will take time to build up to profitable levels. VA will still see red for awhile on their intl ops I am sure.

Surprised no images or press release from QF around the first 380 refit - flies home from LHR today doesn’t it? Keen to see the images of the F refurb and lounge area.

smi0006 wrote:

Surprised no images or press release from QF around the first 380 refit - flies home from LHR today doesn’t it? Keen to see the images of the F refurb and lounge area.

It should be departing overnight as QF2. Still on the ground in Dresden it seems.

Interesting, a new international pier for SYD?

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... ional-pier

smi0006 wrote:

Surprised no images or press release from QF around the first 380 refit - flies home from LHR today doesn’t it? Keen to see the images of the F refurb and lounge area.

Possibly because -OQK is still in DRS, and at time of my post (12pm Sept 30th MEL time/3am Sept 30th LHR time) -OQL/QF1 is the next aircraft going to DRS for refit, will be landing in LHR in about 4hrs..I'm guessing that after the ferry flights/swaps LHR/DRS/LHR have occurred and -OQK is in LHR ready for QF2, then the 'photo ops' and press releases will begin. The seat map is now showing on qantas.com

A350OZ wrote:

redroo wrote:

Going to be controversial here... if virgin want to continue with long haul, the take all the A330s off Perth and use them to provide a consistent daily network from the eastern states. We sand gropers like the widebodies but we will suck it up.

And being really controversial, double down on Melbourne - Australia’s second city. The 6 a330s and 5 777 could provide a decent network from Melbourne. Daily flights across Asia and daily to LAX and SFO. Be Melbournes airline and leave Qantas to Sydney. Sorry Brisbane.

While MEL based and long-time VA Platinum myself, as much as I'd like to see this I think that ship has sailed. While QF clearly has a strong focus on SYD, they have built up MEL again nicely. If VA would try it then QF would counter, and both would be worse-off long term. They should have done this around 2012, when QF intl out of MEL was really weak. Now it's too late.

I agree with taking the 330s off domestic and building more intl services though, out of all three ports - MEL, SYD and BNE. Japan with NH partnership, keep HKG, maybe start ICN together with KE. But that's my armchair advice only.

Also, I don't see where VA would fly in Asia. Most destinations are low yielding and the "better ones" would have stiff competition. I mean look at SIN for example, VA's bottom line would be a dumpster fire if they ever tried. Tokyo is a good start because if that doesn't work you can bet nothing else will. They need partners, clearly this virtual network just doesn't work as FF's get treated as second class passengers. Up until recently the lounge situation was very confusing also...

I reckon VA is in a catch 22 right now, its too little too late to grow out of this situation, they either have too many or not enough widebodies and shrinking too much would be shooting themselves in the foot. They need a huge cash injection to actually do something because at this rate they'll end up like Jet Airways, haemorrhaging cash until they die. A LATAM kind of deal from DL would go a long way I think (provided it simplifies ownership).

Also flying VA is nice, but there are very minor things that keep on annoying me. I find the app to be terrible, uncompatible with tablets and unintuitive. Status that is pretty much useless overseas... the wifi is nice though.

Truth is they are fine if you're going up and down the East Coast or to Perth. Other than that they're more of a hassle than anything.

CraigAnderson wrote:

Interesting, a new international pier for SYD?

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... ional-pier

Makes sense and much needed increase of bays. The freight terminals are taking up prime realestate and really could be relocated elsewhere, perhaps where the blue emu care parks are?

Also as the article points out makes sense why QF have paused their SYD lounge program.

Does anyone know why Perth airport's self reported domestic passenger numbers are so much greater than the BITRE reported numbers?
For example in July the BITRE reports monthly activity at 744000
https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/o ... y_2019.pdf

But Perth airports own website reports activity as 934000.
https://www.perthairport.com.au/Home/co ... statistics

Thats a huge diff - 25%. Seems very strange?

mh124 wrote:

Does anyone know why Perth airport's self reported domestic passenger numbers are so much greater than the BITRE reported numbers?
For example in July the BITRE reports monthly activity at 744000
https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/o ... y_2019.pdf

But Perth airports own website reports activity as 934000.
https://www.perthairport.com.au/Home/co ... statistics

Thats a huge diff - 25%. Seems very strange?

The PER numbers most likely include charter flights where as the BITRE doesn't, hence the difference

getluv wrote:

Bluebird191 wrote:

getluv wrote:

I also don’t understand using BNE. I’m sure the QLD government and BNE airport are paying a pretty penny. However, they don’t use A330s on BNE-PER so it’ll be interesting how they rotate aircraft. If they pull it off MEL/SYD-HKG, well the HKG situation couldn’t come at a worse time. I doubt many airlines will want to buy/lease the slots from VA at the moment.

VA have been using the A332 on the BNE-PER-BNE runs for quite a few months lately, only a few days each week, mainly Fridays, Saturdays and Saturdays. It’s quit unmistakeable seeing fly over home in Ipswich, particularly on a Saturday as I live under the transcon flight path into BNE.

I stand corrected. Reviewing services in October and November, there’s only going to be one weekly rotation through BNE on Sunday and two during January. They’re going to have to rotate aircraft more frequently into BNE if they want to start HND.

Actually VA BNE-PER will see 2 A332 services this week then drop down to weekly for the rest of the month, November will see 2 weekly return with the Friday VA469/474 service and Saturday VA467 and returning on Sunday as VA470

qf789 wrote:

Actually VA BNE-PER will see 2 A332 services this week then drop down to weekly for the rest of the month, November will see 2 weekly return with the Friday VA469/474 service and Saturday VA467 and returning on Sunday as VA470

Surely this lack of consistency must hurt VA, if I was a business traveller for example I would want more surety that I could be in an A330 compared to a B737. I know that Qantas is no saint either when it comes to swaps but with its larger A330 fleet Qantas is in a better position to give business traveller a degree of certainly in their schedule.

CraigAnderson wrote:

qf789 wrote:

Actually VA BNE-PER will see 2 A332 services this week then drop down to weekly for the rest of the month, November will see 2 weekly return with the Friday VA469/474 service and Saturday VA467 and returning on Sunday as VA470

Surely this lack of consistency must hurt VA, if I was a business traveller for example I would want more surety that I could be in an A330 compared to a B737. I know that Qantas is no saint either when it comes to swaps but with its larger A330 fleet Qantas is in a better position to give business traveller a degree of certainly in their schedule.

There is a reason why BNE-PER is operated by mainly 737's by both QF and VA. The J market is not that big compared to SYD and MEL. On top of that the 737 can offer more frequency, where as operating the A332 from both carriers will see frequency reduced

TasFlyer wrote:

qf789 wrote:

qf2220 wrote:

Scurrah is not an airline person (though he is a transport person by career). Does he fully understand the intricacies? Or is he acting on advice from his reports on this HND application? Is this a reasoned opportunistic play by an organisation seizing an opportunity? Or is it another vanity project that the underlings are cooking up and Scurrah doesn't know the detail to shut down?

Personally I think its closer to the former than the latter, though someone told me once (in one of my 'ah-ha' moments in life) that a company isn't just one person but is many and whilst Scurrahs name is on this, some of the same people that were part of Team Borghetti are in VA and they may still be being reckless too.

Scurrah has being a great job so far. He is well liked by everyone at VA. Having talked to lots of people within VA the 2 common themes are JB trashed the airline and secondly change is required. Change is currently taking place which includes reviewing the current network of which some changes have been made already and looking at new routes both domestic and international. Again I will reiterate Tokyo was being considered and being worked on prior to the HND slots being awarded, for a considerable period of time as well

Great news. Without breaking any confidentiality, can you expand at all on the possible new domestic routes — is it new ports, re-opening of previously served routes, or new routes between existing ports? What sort of timeframe is it before these commence and when does the new COO, who will be responsible for the network review, begin?

All of the above, one thing that has been identified is due to 737MAX deferrals a lack of available aircraft to start new routes so they may not happen for a while. As for the network review we will consider to see tweaks to schedules to meet demand, I don't think we will see a slash and burn approach as some expect. I would also expect that once the 737MAX10's arrive they will replace A332;s and 738's on transcon, with all A332's moving to International. Personally I believe the small fleet of A332's and 77W's is not effective and should be replaced by one type. The extra range of the 737MAX as well will also provide opportunities for new routes not possible with the current 737NG's

One thing is clear, VA does not have many cards to play with. Currently there is no replacement or expansion plan of long haul aircraft. Very few options to turn the international operations around. Assuming they do get awarded one of the slots, taking 17% of their A330 fleet to start a new route means their bottom line will take a significant hit in the short term for start up costs while a new route develops. I cannot see VA international returning to profitability for years. When was the last time their international operations showed any profit anyway?

SeaEagle8 wrote:

One thing is clear, VA does not have many cards to play with. Currently there is no replacement or expansion plan of long haul aircraft. Very few options to turn the international operations around. Assuming they do get awarded one of the slots, taking 17% of their A330 fleet to start a new route means their bottom line will take a significant hit in the short term for start up costs while a new route develops. I cannot see VA international returning to profitability for years. When was the last time their international operations showed any profit anyway?

JB said before they could get widebody aircraft tomorrow if they wanted to. I assume he was talking about leasing aircraft from HNA like how they leased two A350's to SA. If they could make money from Day 1 on the HND route in conjunction with NH, that might be an option.

Please continue discussion in Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

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