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New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 01, 2019 5:36 am

Welcome to New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019. Please continue to add your comments below

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NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 01, 2019 6:21 am

NZ516 wrote:
Bali has become a solid all year round destination. My work mates go there every year and never get tired of it. They end up going out on EK when the NZ flight is not operating.


I'm jumping to an assumption here that a bunch of "work mates" is a group of younger males? in which case Bali is perfect given the direct flight takes you somewhere cheap, tropical, beaches, culture, party lifestyle or a combination of these...

Even off-peak the weather, rain wise isn't too bad and the number of rain days per month is still only around 14-16 and only 90mm of rain. The issue is, why go there during our best months and go during their worst, even if the worst isn't that bad.

https://www.holiday-weather.com/bali/averages/

NTLDaz wrote:
I get what you're saying about Bali fatigue but it doesn't seem to affect the popularity for Australians so I doubt Kiwis would be much different.


Isn't Bali a staple holiday destination for any Aussie much like Fiji and the Gold Coast is to Kiwis.
 
PA515
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 01, 2019 6:39 am

Photo of ZK-NZR (L/N 919) in 'Position 3' on the final assembly line with VH-ZNI (L/N 921) behind it in 'Position 2'. No Wifi radome on ZK-NZR and they appear to get fitted in 'Position 2' when factory fitted.

http://www.paineairport.com/images/kpae17696fr.png

PA515
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:51 am

OGG is interesting. HNL gets to daily in July August and was 9pw for the July holidays in 2018 so maybe a daily HNL and 2-3 weekly OGG initially in July August?

How about AIT? They were talking of expanding the runway and customs to take International flights, AKL is realistically most likely I think as a seasonal NS destination 1-2 weekly A320s to start, stunning place AIT is, the less people the better.

I agree Bali is somewhere Aussies love because partly distance, it’s about 6hrs from the East coast not to much further than 4-5 hrs to Fiji. Fiji is popular with Aussies as well but there are so many of them compared to Kiwis.
 
torin
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:14 am

First Shanghai Airlines 787 came through Auckland today, operating on behalf of parent company China Eastern. Only for the next couple of months so far - anyone know if it might stay after the summer increase?

https://www.instagram.com/p/B13F72KBhYe/?igshid=1dz11ts3me60x
 
SpoonNZ
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:44 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
How about AIT? They were talking of expanding the runway and customs to take International flights, AKL is realistically most likely I think as a seasonal NS destination 1-2 weekly A320s to start, stunning place AIT is, the less people the better.


According to http://www.ck/aituthot.htm there’s about 260 rooms available on the island, so can accomodate maybe 600 people. Surely flying a 200 seat plane into such a small place a couple of times per week would be challenging?
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:31 am

SpoonNZ wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
How about AIT? They were talking of expanding the runway and customs to take International flights, AKL is realistically most likely I think as a seasonal NS destination 1-2 weekly A320s to start, stunning place AIT is, the less people the better.


According to http://www.ck/aituthot.htm there’s about 260 rooms available on the island, so can accomodate maybe 600 people. Surely flying a 200 seat plane into such a small place a couple of times per week would be challenging?


Probably, this was something talked about by the Cook Islands Government, it was 2-3 years ago. 1-2 weekly could be good but like I say it’s a stunning place the less people the better IMO, I’d say that about a lot of places.
 
NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 01, 2019 12:05 pm

NZ6 wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
Bali has become a solid all year round destination. My work mates go there every year and never get tired of it. They end up going out on EK when the NZ flight is not operating.


I'm jumping to an assumption here that a bunch of "work mates" is a group of younger males? in which case Bali is perfect given the direct flight takes you somewhere cheap, tropical, beaches, culture, party lifestyle or a combination of these...

Even off-peak the weather, rain wise isn't too bad and the number of rain days per month is still only around 14-16 and only 90mm of rain. The issue is, why go there during our best months and go during their worst, even if the worst isn't that bad.

https://www.holiday-weather.com/bali/averages/

NTLDaz wrote:
I get what you're saying about Bali fatigue but it doesn't seem to affect the popularity for Australians so I doubt Kiwis would be much different.


Isn't Bali a staple holiday destination for any Aussie much like Fiji and the Gold Coast is to Kiwis.


Correct regarding work mates being mainly male. But some take their families too with the kids on the school holidays in December for a week. The main attraction for them is Bali is so cheap. You can take a family of 4 to a restaurant with really nice food and only pay $20. You can visit other islands very easily on the ferry. The weather isn't that of a issue 28c every day and one hour of rain every day so nothing to hard to put up with. Being cheaper than Hawaii and Fiji will be a major factor behind Bali continuing popularity.
 
Qantas16
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:35 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
OGG is interesting. HNL gets to daily in July August and was 9pw for the July holidays in 2018 so maybe a daily HNL and 2-3 weekly OGG initially in July August?

How about AIT? They were talking of expanding the runway and customs to take International flights, AKL is realistically most likely I think as a seasonal NS destination 1-2 weekly A320s to start, stunning place AIT is, the less people the better.

I agree Bali is somewhere Aussies love because partly distance, it’s about 6hrs from the East coast not to much further than 4-5 hrs to Fiji. Fiji is popular with Aussies as well but there are so many of them compared to Kiwis.



OGG's runway is only 2,132m - over 300m shorter than OOLs. Whilst it's likely technically possible for a 789 to fly AKL-OGG-AKL, it's not realistic with a full load both ways year round - and NZ aren't going to run it as a triangle route!
 
NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:12 pm

How about Phuket for a new getaway destination accommodation and food is cheap. I think that the Hawaiian market would be well served with HNL alone. It's not really big enough to serve two airports there from NZ?
 
NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 12:00 am

Looking up the schedules for AKL to EZE. The last 777 service is Sun 2 Feb and first 787 service is Mon 3 Feb and frequency drops from 5 pw to 4 pw from then on. Might be to do with not enough spare 787 capacity to remain 5 pw. I see it reverts back to 777 in april 3 pw.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 12:25 am

NZ516 wrote:
Looking up the schedules for AKL to EZE. The last 777 service is Sun 2 Feb and first 787 service is Mon 3 Feb and frequency drops from 5 pw to 4 pw from then on. Might be to do with not enough spare 787 capacity to remain 5 pw. I see it reverts back to 777 in april 3 pw.


Schedules Wont be updated yet beyond March. This won’t happen fully until probably JAN but I expect 789s to continue all being well with them. Demand probably slightly less in FEB.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 12:27 am

Qantas16 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
OGG is interesting. HNL gets to daily in July August and was 9pw for the July holidays in 2018 so maybe a daily HNL and 2-3 weekly OGG initially in July August?

How about AIT? They were talking of expanding the runway and customs to take International flights, AKL is realistically most likely I think as a seasonal NS destination 1-2 weekly A320s to start, stunning place AIT is, the less people the better.

I agree Bali is somewhere Aussies love because partly distance, it’s about 6hrs from the East coast not to much further than 4-5 hrs to Fiji. Fiji is popular with Aussies as well but there are so many of them compared to Kiwis.



OGG's runway is only 2,132m - over 300m shorter than OOLs. Whilst it's likely technically possible for a 789 to fly AKL-OGG-AKL, it's not realistic with a full load both ways year round - and NZ aren't going to run it as a triangle route!


I didn’t realise the runway was that short, AA, run OGG-DFW with a 772 don’t they? That wouldn’t be much shorter than OGG-AKL. I don’t think they would consider it year round if at all and yes it wouldn’t be a triangle route that’s for sure.
 
Qantas16
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 1:45 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
Qantas16 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
OGG is interesting. HNL gets to daily in July August and was 9pw for the July holidays in 2018 so maybe a daily HNL and 2-3 weekly OGG initially in July August?

How about AIT? They were talking of expanding the runway and customs to take International flights, AKL is realistically most likely I think as a seasonal NS destination 1-2 weekly A320s to start, stunning place AIT is, the less people the better.

I agree Bali is somewhere Aussies love because partly distance, it’s about 6hrs from the East coast not to much further than 4-5 hrs to Fiji. Fiji is popular with Aussies as well but there are so many of them compared to Kiwis.



OGG's runway is only 2,132m - over 300m shorter than OOLs. Whilst it's likely technically possible for a 789 to fly AKL-OGG-AKL, it's not realistic with a full load both ways year round - and NZ aren't going to run it as a triangle route!


I didn’t realise the runway was that short, AA, run OGG-DFW with a 772 don’t they? That wouldn’t be much shorter than OGG-AKL. I don’t think they would consider it year round if at all and yes it wouldn’t be a triangle route that’s for sure.


They do, though OGG-DFW is still ~700nm shorter than OGG-AKL. I don't think the route would be seriously considered even if the runway was much longer but with the runway length I think it rules it out as any possibility
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 3:51 am

Qantas16 wrote:
OGG's runway is only 2,132m - over 300m shorter than OOLs. Whilst it's likely technically possible for a 789 to fly AKL-OGG-AKL, it's not realistic with a full load both ways year round - and NZ aren't going to run it as a triangle route!


WLG's runway is shorter again yet we're talking about WLG-SIN flights which is longer than AKL-OGG???

What it will come down to is, how many seats can the airline fill at what price and will people buy it. If the math works out on that, there's no reason it can't technically happen.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 3:54 am

NZ516 wrote:
How about Phuket for a new getaway destination accommodation and food is cheap. I think that the Hawaiian market would be well served with HNL alone. It's not really big enough to serve two airports there from NZ?


It's been brought up a few times. HKT's best season is Dec-Feb and their low season can be pretty miserable. It's almost the complete opposite of what the Kiwk outbound leisure market demands (as a whole.)

But never say never..... :D
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 3:55 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
Qantas16 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
OGG is interesting. HNL gets to daily in July August and was 9pw for the July holidays in 2018 so maybe a daily HNL and 2-3 weekly OGG initially in July August?

How about AIT? They were talking of expanding the runway and customs to take International flights, AKL is realistically most likely I think as a seasonal NS destination 1-2 weekly A320s to start, stunning place AIT is, the less people the better.

I agree Bali is somewhere Aussies love because partly distance, it’s about 6hrs from the East coast not to much further than 4-5 hrs to Fiji. Fiji is popular with Aussies as well but there are so many of them compared to Kiwis.



OGG's runway is only 2,132m - over 300m shorter than OOLs. Whilst it's likely technically possible for a 789 to fly AKL-OGG-AKL, it's not realistic with a full load both ways year round - and NZ aren't going to run it as a triangle route!


I didn’t realise the runway was that short, AA, run OGG-DFW with a 772 don’t they? That wouldn’t be much shorter than OGG-AKL. I don’t think they would consider it year round if at all and yes it wouldn’t be a triangle route that’s for sure.


UA also run a 777 to ORD, about 300km shorter than AKL.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 5:23 am

NZ6 wrote:
Qantas16 wrote:
OGG's runway is only 2,132m - over 300m shorter than OOLs. Whilst it's likely technically possible for a 789 to fly AKL-OGG-AKL, it's not realistic with a full load both ways year round - and NZ aren't going to run it as a triangle route!


WLG's runway is shorter again yet we're talking about WLG-SIN flights which is longer than AKL-OGG???

What it will come down to is, how many seats can the airline fill at what price and will people buy it. If the math works out on that, there's no reason it can't technically happen.


I’d have to admit I’m not overly convinced on OGG, runway length doesn’t come into my thinking, it’s in the Hawaiian islands so surely an easy connection, I guess non stops can grow demand significantly, like HKT NZ6 I’d say never say never.
 
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DUDtoDFW
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 5:28 am

NZ6 wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
How about Phuket for a new getaway destination accommodation and food is cheap. I think that the Hawaiian market would be well served with HNL alone. It's not really big enough to serve two airports there from NZ?


It's been brought up a few times. HKT's best season is Dec-Feb and their low season can be pretty miserable. It's almost the complete opposite of what the Kiwk outbound leisure market demands (as a whole.)

But never say never..... :D


Weird I was just thinking about possible outbound holiday destinations a few days ago, along the lines of Bali, then catch up on a-net to see the idea of OGG raised just as I was thinking it was a good possibility! Yes the runway is short (I assume the AA/UA 777s benefit from flying eastbound) and no CBP facilities yet. So what about KOA once/twice weekly instead? It has an 11,000 foot runway and I believe they have had non-stops from Japan in the past.

A big benefit of Hawaiian destinations in my view is that NZ could top up flights with Australia-origin passengers, whereas flights to HKT or SGN, for example, would be big backtracks from SYD/MEL/BNE, and so must rely on NZ point of sale alone. From say MEL to OGG/KOA, NZ would be a strong contender, 1 stop like the other options, same airline and same terminal transfer, and just about as fast as routing via HNL.

On the same reasoning, and another one that's come up several times in the past, I reckon a 1-2 weekly LAS flight could work. Maybe a bit far for a Code 1 789 but in winter there's probably a 772 you could send there instead. Very very hot in Northern Summer but the casinos are always nicely air conditioned! Return flight would possibly need to leave later than the rest of NZ-bound flights, close to midnight when temperatures fall. But surely the airline can rustle up 300 NZers and Australians a week, wanting to check out Vegas and happy to shell out a small premium to avoid the terminal transfer at LAX.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 5:45 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
Qantas16 wrote:
OGG's runway is only 2,132m - over 300m shorter than OOLs. Whilst it's likely technically possible for a 789 to fly AKL-OGG-AKL, it's not realistic with a full load both ways year round - and NZ aren't going to run it as a triangle route!


WLG's runway is shorter again yet we're talking about WLG-SIN flights which is longer than AKL-OGG???

What it will come down to is, how many seats can the airline fill at what price and will people buy it. If the math works out on that, there's no reason it can't technically happen.


I’d have to admit I’m not overly convinced on OGG, runway length doesn’t come into my thinking, it’s in the Hawaiian islands so surely an easy connection, I guess non stops can grow demand significantly, like HKT NZ6 I’d say never say never.


It was some time ago now but there was a business case put forward for a second Hawaiian route (seasonal). A bit earlier but it also wasn't so long ago where HNL peaked out at something like 3x a week and as low as once a week for a bit by memory.

Is it HA's competition, NZ's moving HNL into the 'Pacific' for marketing or the seats to suit pricing model or a combination everything that's made Hawaii more popular.?
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 5:55 am

DUDtoDFW wrote:
Weird I was just thinking about possible outbound holiday destinations a few days ago, along the lines of Bali, then catch up on a-net to see the idea of OGG raised just as I was thinking it was a good possibility! Yes the runway is short (I assume the AA/UA 777s benefit from flying eastbound) and no CBP facilities yet. So what about KOA once/twice weekly instead? It has an 11,000 foot runway and I believe they have had non-stops from Japan in the past.

A big benefit of Hawaiian destinations in my view is that NZ could top up flights with Australia-origin passengers, whereas flights to HKT or SGN, for example, would be big backtracks from SYD/MEL/BNE, and so must rely on NZ point of sale alone. From say MEL to OGG/KOA, NZ would be a strong contender, 1 stop like the other options, same airline and same terminal transfer, and just about as fast as routing via HNL.

On the same reasoning, and another one that's come up several times in the past, I reckon a 1-2 weekly LAS flight could work. Maybe a bit far for a Code 1 789 but in winter there's probably a 772 you could send there instead. Very very hot in Northern Summer but the casinos are always nicely air conditioned! Return flight would possibly need to leave later than the rest of NZ-bound flights, close to midnight when temperatures fall. But surely the airline can rustle up 300 NZers and Australians a week, wanting to check out Vegas and happy to shell out a small premium to avoid the terminal transfer at LAX.


Don't forget one of the major drawbacks of HNL is the crowds, slightly lower at other places but also inconvenient with the transfer.

LAS could work but the major barrier is the target market. It sits somewhere between the young student (can't drink and gamble) and the older traveller who's already been there done that on other trips. It leaves the young professional with no children or the boys/girls getaway trips. That market has some many options, DPS, Fiji etc

By memory, GrabaSeat ran a charter up there a while ago, 744 days. If I recall correctly, it was a hard sell. well definitely a hard sell vs the Fiji 'one-offs'.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 6:01 am

NZ6 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ6 wrote:

WLG's runway is shorter again yet we're talking about WLG-SIN flights which is longer than AKL-OGG???

What it will come down to is, how many seats can the airline fill at what price and will people buy it. If the math works out on that, there's no reason it can't technically happen.


I’d have to admit I’m not overly convinced on OGG, runway length doesn’t come into my thinking, it’s in the Hawaiian islands so surely an easy connection, I guess non stops can grow demand significantly, like HKT NZ6 I’d say never say never.


It was some time ago now but there was a business case put forward for a second Hawaiian route (seasonal). A bit earlier but it also wasn't so long ago where HNL peaked out at something like 3x a week and as low as once a week for a bit by memory.

Is it HA's competition, NZ's moving HNL into the 'Pacific' for marketing or the seats to suit pricing model or a combination everything that's made Hawaii more popular.?


Interesting. HNL was 2 weekly for some time.

Marketing, dollar, S2S I think probably all plays a part in HNL doing much better these days.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 6:02 am

NZ6 wrote:
DUDtoDFW wrote:
Weird I was just thinking about possible outbound holiday destinations a few days ago, along the lines of Bali, then catch up on a-net to see the idea of OGG raised just as I was thinking it was a good possibility! Yes the runway is short (I assume the AA/UA 777s benefit from flying eastbound) and no CBP facilities yet. So what about KOA once/twice weekly instead? It has an 11,000 foot runway and I believe they have had non-stops from Japan in the past.

A big benefit of Hawaiian destinations in my view is that NZ could top up flights with Australia-origin passengers, whereas flights to HKT or SGN, for example, would be big backtracks from SYD/MEL/BNE, and so must rely on NZ point of sale alone. From say MEL to OGG/KOA, NZ would be a strong contender, 1 stop like the other options, same airline and same terminal transfer, and just about as fast as routing via HNL.

On the same reasoning, and another one that's come up several times in the past, I reckon a 1-2 weekly LAS flight could work. Maybe a bit far for a Code 1 789 but in winter there's probably a 772 you could send there instead. Very very hot in Northern Summer but the casinos are always nicely air conditioned! Return flight would possibly need to leave later than the rest of NZ-bound flights, close to midnight when temperatures fall. But surely the airline can rustle up 300 NZers and Australians a week, wanting to check out Vegas and happy to shell out a small premium to avoid the terminal transfer at LAX.


Don't forget one of the major drawbacks of HNL is the crowds, slightly lower at other places but also inconvenient with the transfer.

LAS could work but the major barrier is the target market. It sits somewhere between the young student (can't drink and gamble) and the older traveller who's already been there done that on other trips. It leaves the young professional with no children or the boys/girls getaway trips. That market has some many options, DPS, Fiji etc

By memory, GrabaSeat ran a charter up there a while ago, 744 days. If I recall correctly, it was a hard sell. well definitely a hard sell vs the Fiji 'one-offs'.



Interesting observations, NZ ran 744s for flight centre from both AKL and BNE one year. Maybe a no go then? Or would they try it in NS 2-3 weekly?
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 6:29 am

NZ516 wrote:
Looking up the schedules for AKL to EZE ... frequency drops from 5 pw to 4 pw from then on. Might be to do with not enough spare 787 capacity to remain 5 pw.

Maybe. But Argentina has just defaulted (again), so it could be worsening economics?

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 6:35 am

DUDtoDFW wrote:
But surely the airline can rustle up 300 NZers and Australians a week, wanting to check out Vegas and happy to shell out a small premium to avoid the terminal transfer at LAX.

People are talking about HKT as the next holiday destination (if there is going to be one), but I agree LAS shouldn't be ruled out - very interesting idea. LAS itself has a metro population of 2.3 million, so might even produce some demand the other way.

Cheers,

C.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 7:40 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
Interesting observations, NZ ran 744s for flight centre from both AKL and BNE one year. Maybe a no go then? Or would they try it in NS 2-3 weekly?


The flight centre ones are genuine charters for staff going to their globals awards. It's not open to the public in any way.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 7:44 am

planemanofnz wrote:
DUDtoDFW wrote:
But surely the airline can rustle up 300 NZers and Australians a week, wanting to check out Vegas and happy to shell out a small premium to avoid the terminal transfer at LAX.

People are talking about HKT as the next holiday destination (if there is going to be one), but I agree LAS shouldn't be ruled out - very interesting idea. LAS itself has a metro population of 2.3 million, so might even produce some demand the other way.

Cheers,

C.


Whereas the population of East Coast USA is something like 120+million.... LAS for an inbound market would be incredibly small. More inbound connections via SFO and LAX

These leisure routes are outbound whereas growth in the American inbound is coming from destinations deeper in the USA aka IAH and now ORD and most likely NYC.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 8:17 am

NZ6 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
Interesting observations, NZ ran 744s for flight centre from both AKL and BNE one year. Maybe a no go then? Or would they try it in NS 2-3 weekly?


The flight centre ones are genuine charters for staff going to their globals awards. It's not open to the public in any way.


Sorry I misread, you said grab a seat.
 
NZ516
Posts: 49
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 12:28 pm

Although the 787/777 fleet is nearly fully utilized now so not much spare room to add any more long haul services to a new port or even an existing one.
However the A320 fleet has grown this year a lot, so have a lot more availability to do new flying.
The combined fleet is now 34 (25 ceos and 9 neos) up from 30 a year ago and new deliveries are coming in faster than older ones retiring. So there is a fair bit of scope for narrow body expansion like what was suggested before. For example going to AIT or returning to Hobart. They could look at RAR to CHC again I think VA has ended their seasonal service now or make the NAN to WLG & CHC flights year round . Plus AKL to CNS back to all year. They could go back to Port Vila or are they still waiting on the runway work to be done. According to the Air NZ destination wikipedia page this route is still "on hold" apparently. Lots of possibilities hopefully a new route will come next year.
 
DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 1:26 pm

NZ516 wrote:
Plus AKL to CNS back to all year.

There was talk in the FNQ press a few months back that a deal had already been done between the CNS Airport authorities/local Council and NZ which would see NZ revert to year-round on CNS with a subsidy or guarantee. Had been waiting for something to be announced, but so far . . . nothing. Beginning to think it was just journalistic froth.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
NYKiwi
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 1:37 pm

EZE is interesting with upcoming elections in October and looking like Maccri may loose, though I hope not. Maybe NZ are changing capacity a bit based on fwd bookings......UA just announced they are dropping there EWR to EZE due to economics although BA seems like a great place...saw the NZ flight when I left few months back and i found it interesting NZ only quote fares in USD which is very wise maybe all.carriers do ex ARG due to the Pesos deval etc...hopefully NZ can stick in there and continue to make this suceed.

BTW just flew back to NYC via ORD flight was pretty full so hope this is a good sign...i know doesnt talkmto yields....was only 14.15 up to ORD so I wonder if small tweak the 787 has the legs for EWR? I know westbount is hour or so longer and winter winds stronger but still had me thinking about dmall config change could get the range needed
 
DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 1:44 pm

NYKiwi wrote:
BTW just flew back to NYC via ORD flight was pretty full so hope this is a good sign...i know doesnt talkmto yields....was only 14.15 up to ORD so I wonder if small tweak the 787 has the legs for EWR? I know westbount is hour or so longer and winter winds stronger but still had me thinking about dmall config change could get the range needed

The use of the 789 powered by GE engines and with a MTOW tweak was all but stated when NZ ordered the 787-10 a couple of months ago. Absolute radio silence since then from both NZ and Boeing. Bottom line is that if NZ wants to serve EWR then it has to actually place an order for such an aircraft. My guess is that the delay is on Boeing’s side in that they aren’t yet ready to formally offer the MTOW bump.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1422
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 1:46 pm

DavidByrne wrote:
NYKiwi wrote:
BTW just flew back to NYC via ORD flight was pretty full so hope this is a good sign...i know doesnt talkmto yields....was only 14.15 up to ORD so I wonder if small tweak the 787 has the legs for EWR? I know westbount is hour or so longer and winter winds stronger but still had me thinking about dmall config change could get the range needed

The use of the 789 powered by GE engines and with a MTOW tweak for EWR was all but stated when NZ ordered the 787-10 a couple of months ago. Absolute radio silence since then from both NZ and Boeing. Bottom line is that if NZ wants to serve EWR then it has to actually place an order for such an aircraft. My guess is that the delay is on Boeing’s side in that they aren’t yet ready to formally offer the MTOW bump.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
PA515
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Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:17 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 3:00 pm

Air NZ A321-271NX ZK-NNG (msn 8908) D-AVXN had a taxi test on Sat 31 Aug.

Photo by XFWSPOT https://www.flickr.com/photos/143531276 ... dateposted

First flight probably Tue 03 Sep.

PA515
 
NYKiwi
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 3:17 pm

Yes read the order and watching the radio silence also just curious if the existing birds could make it or NZ not willing to not fill some seats westbound is all im not technical so dont know the difference in GE v RR engines......maybe it needs the MTOW bump for all to be considered or also waiting for ORD to stabize too before opening a new station
 
zkncj
Posts: 3241
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 6:10 pm

NZ516 wrote:
Although the 787/777 fleet is nearly fully utilized now so not much spare room to add any more long haul services to a new port or even an existing one.
However the A320 fleet has grown this year a lot, so have a lot more availability to do new flying.
The combined fleet is now 34 (25 ceos and 9 neos) up from 30 a year ago and new deliveries are coming in faster than older ones retiring. So there is a fair bit of scope for narrow body expansion like what was suggested before. For example going to AIT or returning to Hobart. They could look at RAR to CHC again I think VA has ended their seasonal service now or make the NAN to WLG & CHC flights year round . Plus AKL to CNS back to all year. They could go back to Port Vila or are they still waiting on the runway work to be done. According to the Air NZ destination wikipedia page this route is still "on hold" apparently. Lots of possibilities hopefully a new route will come next year.



Only around half of those a320s are able to leave the country, the domestic fleet is limited to New Zealand.


The reason why the A320CEO’s are leaving the fleet slower than the NEO’s are arriving. Was that 3x A320CEO from International are temporary having there leases extended, to join the domestic fleet. Until the Domestic a321NEO fleet start arriving late next year and into 2021. They are being held onto to help with domestic growth in the short term.
 
NZ516
Posts: 49
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 8:46 pm

Yes I knew we had 13 international 320s originally and 5 have left. Also 13 international neos on order, we are up four frames presently. So a bit of room available for some expansion.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 03, 2019 12:16 am

NYKiwi wrote:
Yes read the order and watching the radio silence also just curious if the existing birds could make it or NZ not willing to not fill some seats westbound is all im not technical so dont know the difference in GE v RR engines......maybe it needs the MTOW bump for all to be considered or also waiting for ORD to stabize too before opening a new station


I would say they could use the existing 275 seater to NYC if they were willing to fly 30-40 seats emtpy westbound. However a MTOW will definitely help and I agree probably waiting for ORD to stabilise, the timeframe mentioned is always the 2022/23 period. I would say GE birds will be ordered and probably a code 3 configuration with around 250 seats. I think they may wait until the new product rolls out that the 78Js will get, so 2022/23 makes sense to me.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 03, 2019 4:07 am

DavidByrne wrote:
The use of the 789 powered by GE engines and with a MTOW tweak was all but stated when NZ ordered the 787-10 a couple of months ago. Absolute radio silence since then from both NZ and Boeing. Bottom line is that if NZ wants to serve EWR then it has to actually place an order for such an aircraft. My guess is that the delay is on Boeing’s side in that they aren’t yet ready to formally offer the MTOW bump.


NZ has 12 options for 787's so the GE powered -9's will come from that pool at some point.

Were you expecting NZ to announce those options only a few months after the -10 order? If so, wouldn't they have just added it to the firm order at the time?

Given NZ hasn't actually announced NYC and given it'll go well above the heads of most of us, I'm not expecting NZ to ever announce in much detail how they'll achieve NYC from a technical standpoint. Boeing will, but to be honest. I think their attention is directed toward the 737 and 777 programs at the moment.

From what I've been told, 2nd or 3rd hand info, a code 3 config on GE powered -9's isn't actually that hard to do.
 
DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 03, 2019 5:59 am

NZ6 wrote:
Were you expecting NZ to announce those options only a few months after the -10 order? If so, wouldn't they have just added it to the firm order at the time?

There’s been an assumption of a MTOW bump for the 789, and I have assumed that NZ would not formally order a “Code 3” 789 until that was formally announced. That said, the MTOW bump is A-Net speculation and may have no basis in fact!

However, with the uncertainty in the financial markets with trade wars and Brexit, I think that all previous bets are off and if I was NZ I’d be looking very carefully at getting ORD working really well and daily before adding more capacity to EWR. Financial issues in Argentina and the erratic nationalism of Bolsanaro in Brazil would also be making me very nervous. It wouldn’t surprise me to see a period of consolidation and even cuts in the near future (hope I’m proven wrong here).
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
zkncj
Posts: 3241
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 03, 2019 6:39 am

NZ516 wrote:
Yes I knew we had 13 international 320s originally and 5 have left. Also 13 international neos on order, we are up four frames presently. So a bit of room available for some expansion.


Isn’t it an total of 20 A320/321NEO (owned/leased)

Of which 13x a320/321NEO’s are planned as direct replacements for Tasman/Pacific fleet.

The 7x a321NEO for Domestic to enable growth over the next few years, are to replace the following:
- 3x temporary A320CEO (ex Tasman/Pacific fleet)
- 4x leased domestic A320CEO’s (OAB,JQ,JR,JS)
These are the oldest in the domestic fleet, and don’t have Sharkelts (2011 builds).
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6942
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 03, 2019 7:46 am

NZ6 wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
The use of the 789 powered by GE engines and with a MTOW tweak was all but stated when NZ ordered the 787-10 a couple of months ago. Absolute radio silence since then from both NZ and Boeing. Bottom line is that if NZ wants to serve EWR then it has to actually place an order for such an aircraft. My guess is that the delay is on Boeing’s side in that they aren’t yet ready to formally offer the MTOW bump.


NZ has 12 options for 787's so the GE powered -9's will come from that pool at some point.

Were you expecting NZ to announce those options only a few months after the -10 order? If so, wouldn't they have just added it to the firm order at the time?

Given NZ hasn't actually announced NYC and given it'll go well above the heads of most of us, I'm not expecting NZ to ever announce in much detail how they'll achieve NYC from a technical standpoint. Boeing will, but to be honest. I think their attention is directed toward the 737 and 777 programs at the moment.

From what I've been told, 2nd or 3rd hand info, a code 3 config on GE powered -9's isn't actually that hard to do.



An additional configuration wouldn’t be hard to do at all so long as it’s a commercially viable configuration that will make money surely?
 
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Zkpilot
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 03, 2019 8:08 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
NYKiwi wrote:
Yes read the order and watching the radio silence also just curious if the existing birds could make it or NZ not willing to not fill some seats westbound is all im not technical so dont know the difference in GE v RR engines......maybe it needs the MTOW bump for all to be considered or also waiting for ORD to stabize too before opening a new station


I would say they could use the existing 275 seater to NYC if they were willing to fly 30-40 seats emtpy westbound. However a MTOW will definitely help and I agree probably waiting for ORD to stabilise, the timeframe mentioned is always the 2022/23 period. I would say GE birds will be ordered and probably a code 3 configuration with around 250 seats. I think they may wait until the new product rolls out that the 78Js will get, so 2022/23 makes sense to me.

In the interim NZ is reconfiguring all 777 and 787 with less economy seating and replacing the removed seats with an economy plus of sorts (should be the same seats just with more legroom). So on the whole that should remove at least 9 economy seats from the 787 and 10 from the 777 fleets. That will save at least 1 ton from each aircraft (seat weight+pax weight+baggage+catering) could be closer to 2 tons which will add about 300km range to each aircraft. Not a game changer but could certainly help.
59 types. 41 countries. 24 airlines.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 03, 2019 8:15 am

Zkpilot wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
NYKiwi wrote:
Yes read the order and watching the radio silence also just curious if the existing birds could make it or NZ not willing to not fill some seats westbound is all im not technical so dont know the difference in GE v RR engines......maybe it needs the MTOW bump for all to be considered or also waiting for ORD to stabize too before opening a new station


I would say they could use the existing 275 seater to NYC if they were willing to fly 30-40 seats emtpy westbound. However a MTOW will definitely help and I agree probably waiting for ORD to stabilise, the timeframe mentioned is always the 2022/23 period. I would say GE birds will be ordered and probably a code 3 configuration with around 250 seats. I think they may wait until the new product rolls out that the 78Js will get, so 2022/23 makes sense to me.

In the interim NZ is reconfiguring all 777 and 787 with less economy seating and replacing the removed seats with an economy plus of sorts (should be the same seats just with more legroom). So on the whole that should remove at least 9 economy seats from the 787 and 10 from the 777 fleets. That will save at least 1 ton from each aircraft (seat weight+pax weight+baggage+catering) could be closer to 2 tons which will add about 300km range to each aircraft. Not a game changer but could certainly help.


I’d forgotten about that. When does the first aircraft for this and the soft refit enter the shop? 777 or 787 first? Or random?
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:08 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
[

I’d forgotten about that. When does the first aircraft for this and the soft refit enter the shop? 777 or 787 first? Or random?


You'd think they would have plenty of time to start working on the 789s durring there extend ground stays, but then they probably are wanting to get the soft-refits down by cheaper overseas labour.
 
NZ516
Posts: 49
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 03, 2019 11:49 am

zkncj wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
Yes I knew we had 13 international 320s originally and 5 have left. Also 13 international neos on order, we are up four frames presently. So a bit of room available for some expansion.


Isn’t it an total of 20 A320/321NEO (owned/leased)

Of which 13x a320/321NEO’s are planned as direct replacements for Tasman/Pacific fleet.

The 7x a321NEO for Domestic to enable growth over the next few years, are to replace the following:
- 3x temporary A320CEO (ex Tasman/Pacific fleet)
- 4x leased domestic A320CEO’s (OAB,JQ,JR,JS)
These are the oldest in the domestic fleet, and don’t have Sharkelts (2011 builds).


This is the exact plan as far as I know. They have postponed some delivery dates for a few Neos.
To reduce capital expenditure in the next few years. They could possibly slow down the domestic 321neo order as well as some of the oldest domestic 320s are still quite young coming up to 9 years old. So could keep them in the fleet a bit longer eg another 5 more years.
 
NZ516
Posts: 49
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 03, 2019 12:10 pm

With Chris Luxon tenure coming to an end later this month. I thought it could be good to reflect on all the expansion by Air NZ in his time as CEO.
Going back over the years there has been so much added to the network. Would the company have grown by approx 40% over the period. A fair bit I would say. Here is a list of what routes have been added recently
2019 AKL to IVC, AKL to ICN, CHC to SIN
2018 AKL to ORD, AKL to TPE, WLG to BNE, ZQN to BNE
2017.AKL to HND
2016 AKL to KIX, AKL to SGN
2015 AKL to SIN, AKL to EZE, AKL to IAH
2014 AKL to DPS
An amazing amount of new destinations. What a big year was 2015 for the company 3 long haul year round destinations added. It's possibly the biggest expansion in the history of the airline in such a short space of time. Well done to NZ.
 
PA515
Posts: 1529
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:17 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 03, 2019 3:13 pm

NZ516 wrote:
zkncj wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
Yes I knew we had 13 international 320s originally and 5 have left. Also 13 international neos on order, we are up four frames presently. So a bit of room available for some expansion.


Isn’t it an total of 20 A320/321NEO (owned/leased)

Of which 13x a320/321NEO’s are planned as direct replacements for Tasman/Pacific fleet.

The 7x a321NEO for Domestic to enable growth over the next few years, are to replace the following:
- 3x temporary A320CEO (ex Tasman/Pacific fleet)
- 4x leased domestic A320CEO’s (OAB,JQ,JR,JS)
These are the oldest in the domestic fleet, and don’t have Sharkelts (2011 builds).


This is the exact plan as far as I know. They have postponed some delivery dates for a few Neos.
To reduce capital expenditure in the next few years. They could possibly slow down the domestic 321neo order as well as some of the oldest domestic 320s are still quite young coming up to 9 years old. So could keep them in the fleet a bit longer eg another 5 more years.


It would also be useful to have the flexibility of a single A321neo fleet for international and domestic use. There's been a more mixed use of the international A320ceos recently and the possibility of A321XLRs from 2023 could make some existing A321neos available for domestic use.

The two 'domestic' A321neos due in FY2024 (i.e. 2nd half of 2023) could be converted to A321XLRs, and the two international A320neos and two 'domestic' A321neos due in FY2022 could be deferred and converted to A321XLRs. Don't think they will further defer the three 'domestic' A321neos due in FY2021 (i.e. 2nd half of 2020).

Still a few unknowns like tourism numbers, the international economy, fuel prices and VA's services.

PA515
 
PA515
Posts: 1529
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:17 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 03, 2019 4:47 pm

Zkpilot wrote:
In the interim NZ is reconfiguring all 777 and 787 with less economy seating and replacing the removed seats with an economy plus of sorts (should be the same seats just with more legroom). So on the whole that should remove at least 9 economy seats from the 787 and 10 from the 777 fleets. That will save at least 1 ton from each aircraft (seat weight+pax weight+baggage+catering) could be closer to 2 tons which will add about 300km range to each aircraft. Not a game changer but could certainly help.


ZK-NBT wrote:
I’d forgotten about that. When does the first aircraft for this and the soft refit enter the shop? 777 or 787 first? Or random?


No Press Release on the Air NZ website, but this was in the 14 May 2019 NZ Herald
The airline hopes to roll out the new seat from early next year ........

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/new ... d=12230900

zkncj wrote:
You'd think they would have plenty of time to start working on the 789s durring there extend ground stays, but then they probably are wanting to get the soft-refits down by cheaper overseas labour.


SIN seems to be the preferred option. Also, the EVA 77W kept from the end of Oct 2019 until the end of Apr 2020, to cover 789 RR Trent TEN maintenance Feb to Apr 2020, means an aircraft can be worked on during the peak season. There is some Wifi to be done and also the Business Premier refurbishment.

PA515
 
zkncj
Posts: 3241
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2019

Tue Sep 03, 2019 5:44 pm

NZ516 wrote:
zkncj wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
Yes I knew we had 13 international 320s originally and 5 have left. Also 13 international neos on order, we are up four frames presently. So a bit of room available for some expansion.


Isn’t it an total of 20 A320/321NEO (owned/leased)

Of which 13x a320/321NEO’s are planned as direct replacements for Tasman/Pacific fleet.

The 7x a321NEO for Domestic to enable growth over the next few years, are to replace the following:
- 3x temporary A320CEO (ex Tasman/Pacific fleet)
- 4x leased domestic A320CEO’s (OAB,JQ,JR,JS)
These are the oldest in the domestic fleet, and don’t have Sharkelts (2011 builds).


This is the exact plan as far as I know. They have postponed some delivery dates for a few Neos.
To reduce capital expenditure in the next few years. They could possibly slow down the domestic 321neo order as well as some of the oldest domestic 320s are still quite young coming up to 9 years old. So could keep them in the fleet a bit longer eg another 5 more years.


The 4x domestic A320CEO’s that are planned to be replaced are all leased, which there lease term is coming towards the end. They are being replaced by lease a321NEOs so no required capital out lay on that change of it. It’s an simple swap of leased a320s for leased a321s.

They would be getting pretty high cycles now too, so the lease company would most likely want them back while they still have some value in them.

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