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unrave
Posts: 2682
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 3:38 pm

edealinfo wrote:
Air passenger traffic falls for 3rd straight month

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/air ... 55952.html

What a ridiculous headline, that too for a financial newspaper. Air traffic in India always falls in the Jul-Sep quarter.
17April2019: RIP Jet Airways
 
edealinfo
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Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 3:50 pm

unrave wrote:
edealinfo wrote:
Air passenger traffic falls for 3rd straight month

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/air ... 55952.html

What a ridiculous headline, that too for a financial newspaper. Air traffic in India always falls in the Jul-Sep quarter.



"Domestic scheduled carriers carried 11.79 million passengers last month, as compared to 11.35 million passengers during the same period of the previous year"

Aren't they comparing comparable periods? Livemint, I believe works with WSJ so I can't see them screwing up.
 
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unrave
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 3:55 pm

edealinfo wrote:
unrave wrote:
edealinfo wrote:
Air passenger traffic falls for 3rd straight month

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/air ... 55952.html

What a ridiculous headline, that too for a financial newspaper. Air traffic in India always falls in the Jul-Sep quarter.



"Domestic scheduled carriers carried 11.79 million passengers last month, as compared to 11.35 million passengers during the same period of the previous year"

Aren't they comparing comparable periods? Livemint, I believe works with WSJ so I can't see them screwing up.

Yes, and that means air traffic grew by nearly 4%, at odds with the doom and gloom headline. You never compare sequential data for cyclical industries.
Mint merely syndicates WSJ articles.
17April2019: RIP Jet Airways
 
edealinfo
Posts: 2765
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 4:05 pm

https://www.thehindu.com/business/Indus ... 452988.ece

Indigo to leave 15% (29 of the 186) seats on A320 Neo and 29% (49 of the 222) seats on A321 Neo unsold, on the Delhi to Turkey flight.

So, what are the implications of this assuming the above scenario is the operating norm for the route?

1) Will such flights be profitable?

2) Would it be better for Indigo to operate two A320neos as opposed to 1A320neo and 1 A321neo since the blocked seats on the route is only 15% for the A320 as opposed to 29% for the A321?

3) Are they fundamentally using an inappropriate aircraft for the route? In other words, would an A330, if available, been a much better choice for the route?

4) Would a singe A330neo or A330ceo be operationally and financially a better choice than the existing 1 A320neo and 1 A321neo combination?

5) Instead of having two flights from DEL-IST, should Indigo have used one of those for another appropriate city in India that has a shorter routing to IST such as ATQ-IST? Are there other such shorter routes?

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=IST-atq

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=IST-del

6) Should Indigo use a 1-stop routing to IST? How long would that flight be?
Last edited by edealinfo on Thu Sep 19, 2019 4:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
edealinfo
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 4:08 pm

unrave wrote:
edealinfo wrote:
unrave wrote:
What a ridiculous headline, that too for a financial newspaper. Air traffic in India always falls in the Jul-Sep quarter.



"Domestic scheduled carriers carried 11.79 million passengers last month, as compared to 11.35 million passengers during the same period of the previous year"

Aren't they comparing comparable periods? Livemint, I believe works with WSJ so I can't see them screwing up.

Yes, and that means air traffic grew by nearly 4%, at odds with the doom and gloom headline. You never compare sequential data for cyclical industries.
Mint merely syndicates WSJ articles.


I read it the other way...didn't notice, yes it it as increase over the corresponding period. Major screw up by the airline (and on my part of not catching it)

>>You never compare sequential data for cyclical industries.
Of course; agree
 
unnayan
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 4:56 pm

edealinfo wrote:
https://www.thehindu.com/business/Industry/days-after-leaving-behind-baggage-indigo-assures-passengers/article29452988.ece

Indigo to leave 15% (29 of the 186) seats on A320 Neo and 29% (49 of the 222) seats on A321 Neo unsold, on the Delhi to Turkey flight.

So, what are the implications of this assuming the above scenario is the operating norm for the route?

1) Will such flights be profitable?

2) Would it be better for Indigo to operate two A320neos as opposed to 1A320neo and 1 A321neo since the blocked seats on the route is only 15% for the A320 as opposed to 29% for the A321?

3) Are they fundamentally using an inappropriate aircraft for the route? In other words, would an A330, if available, been a much better choice for the route?

4) Would a singe A330neo or A330ceo be operationally and financially a better choice than the existing 1 A320neo and 1 A321neo combination?

5) Instead of having two flights from DEL-IST, should Indigo have used one of those for another appropriate city in India that has a shorter routing to IST such as ATQ-IST? Are there other such shorter routes?

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=IST-atq

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=IST-del

6) Should Indigo use a 1-stop routing to IST? How long would that flight be?


Wondering if it's time for ordering A321XLR?
 
edealinfo
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 5:14 pm

unnayan wrote:

Wondering if it's time for ordering A321XLR?


Could the 321XLR do DEL-IST on an all economy class flight, comfortably? And when will the 321XLR be available/on the market?

By does Indigo even have to use the XLR....wouldn't just the A321LR be adequate?
 
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lightsaber
Moderator
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 5:53 pm

edealinfo wrote:
https://www.thehindu.com/business/Industry/days-after-leaving-behind-baggage-indigo-assures-passengers/article29452988.ece

Indigo to leave 15% (29 of the 186) seats on A320 Neo and 29% (49 of the 222) seats on A321 Neo unsold, on the Delhi to Turkey flight.

So, what are the implications of this assuming the above scenario is the operating norm for the route?

1) Will such flights be profitable?

2) Would it be better for Indigo to operate two A320neos as opposed to 1A320neo and 1 A321neo since the blocked seats on the route is only 15% for the A320 as opposed to 29% for the A321?

3) Are they fundamentally using an inappropriate aircraft for the route? In other words, would an A330, if available, been a much better choice for the route?

4) Would a singe A330neo or A330ceo be operationally and financially a better choice than the existing 1 A320neo and 1 A321neo combination?

5) Instead of having two flights from DEL-IST, should Indigo have used one of those for another appropriate city in India that has a shorter routing to IST such as ATQ-IST? Are there other such shorter routes?

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=IST-atq

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=IST-del

6) Should Indigo use a 1-stop routing to IST? How long would that flight be?

Indigo has a high density configuration. So compared to a 162 seat configuration, each seat adds 18kg if seat, oxygen, and evacuation cards. Plus 105kg of person and bags and 2kg of catering (my guess, probably less).

For DEL-IST, it looks like the A320NEO needs an ACT. That is a cargo hold tank. Enough people were removed to add one full of fuel.

The A321 looks like they need two ACT (second one mostly empty).

It is very expensive to opperate tiny subfleets. A good way for a successful LCC to become struggling is buy widebodies too early. At this time the profit per flight on a widebody would be higher, but poor return on investment.

As to another city, DEL and BOM have higher yield. Filling more seats doesn't help if they pay less.

This is high wind season. It will be better in peak season (more seats filled). If it is break even now (it should be), it will print money later.

This is going to be a seasonal route. A route best served by the A321xLR. That plane has:
1. 3T higher MTOW
2. Less fuel tank weight (ACTs are inefficient, all small fuel tanks are).

The A321xLR should fly out with the full 222 seats.

Lightsaber
8 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
airboss787
Posts: 316
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 7:56 pm

edealinfo wrote:
https://www.thehindu.com/business/Industry/days-after-leaving-behind-baggage-indigo-assures-passengers/article29452988.ece

Indigo to leave 15% (29 of the 186) seats on A320 Neo and 29% (49 of the 222) seats on A321 Neo unsold, on the Delhi to Turkey flight.

So, what are the implications of this assuming the above scenario is the operating norm for the route?

1) Will such flights be profitable?

2) Would it be better for Indigo to operate two A320neos as opposed to 1A320neo and 1 A321neo since the blocked seats on the route is only 15% for the A320 as opposed to 29% for the A321?

3) Are they fundamentally using an inappropriate aircraft for the route? In other words, would an A330, if available, been a much better choice for the route?

4) Would a singe A330neo or A330ceo be operationally and financially a better choice than the existing 1 A320neo and 1 A321neo combination?

5) Instead of having two flights from DEL-IST, should Indigo have used one of those for another appropriate city in India that has a shorter routing to IST such as ATQ-IST? Are there other such shorter routes?

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=IST-atq

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=IST-del

6) Should Indigo use a 1-stop routing to IST? How long would that flight be?


I wonder why they have to block so many more seats on the 321 than the 320 when the 321s are supposed to have more range. The 321neo range is 7,400kms and DEL-IST is only 4,500kms. 30% less capacity sounds steep for a relatively short flight. Are they filling the planes so much? Sure, winds, but that bad? Shaving off more than 30% of range by winds? How come these issues are coming from the 321neo only and not the 320neo? Surprised IndiGo did not expect this if it is weather-related. It seems strange, definitely a prime route for the -LR or -XLR.
Star Alliance Gold
 
edealinfo
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 7:56 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Indigo has a high density configuration. So compared to a 162 seat configuration, each seat adds 18kg if seat, oxygen, and evacuation cards. Plus 105kg of person and bags and 2kg of catering (my guess, probably less).

For DEL-IST, it looks like the A320NEO needs an ACT. That is a cargo hold tank. Enough people were removed to add one full of fuel.

The A321 looks like they need two ACT (second one mostly empty).

It is very expensive to opperate tiny subfleets. A good way for a successful LCC to become struggling is buy widebodies too early. At this time the profit per flight on a widebody would be higher, but poor return on investment.

As to another city, DEL and BOM have higher yield. Filling more seats doesn't help if they pay less.

This is high wind season. It will be better in peak season (more seats filled). If it is break even now (it should be), it will print money later.

This is going to be a seasonal route. A route best served by the A321xLR. That plane has:
1. 3T higher MTOW
2. Less fuel tank weight (ACTs are inefficient, all small fuel tanks are).

The A321xLR should fly out with the full 222 seats.

Lightsaber


I appreciate the response which has a very clear and logical explanation!
 
edealinfo
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 7:58 pm

airboss787 wrote:
I wonder why they have to block so many more seats on the 321 than the 320 when the 321s are supposed to have more range. The 321neo range is 7,400kms and DEL-IST is only 4,500kms. 30% less capacity sounds steep for a relatively short flight. Are they filling the planes so much? Sure, winds, but that bad? Shaving off more than 30% of range by winds? How come these issues are coming from the 321neo only and not the 320neo? Surprised IndiGo did not expect this if it is weather-related. It seems strange, definitely a prime route for the -LR or -XLR.


This is a great question and I had something similar but couldn't frame it as such. Thanks for raising it.
 
edealinfo
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 8:06 pm

DGCA has suspended 74 pilots in 8 months, nearly half of them for failing alcohol test

https://theprint.in/india/dgca-has-susp ... st/293218/
 
FligtReporter
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 20, 2019 3:52 am

Vistara is very soon may announce Khajuraho My favourite holiday destination.

the last five star airline that flew to HJR was Kingfisher..Its great to see Vistara finally connecting these world heritage sites.

It would be great if they buy a few ATRs and fly them to Agra,Jaisalmer,Kullu etc to stop the daylight loot of Air India which charges more than the or equivalent amount of ticket price from Delhi to Bangkok on Del-kul sector
 
sabby
Posts: 474
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 20, 2019 5:36 am

airboss787 wrote:
I wonder why they have to block so many more seats on the 321 than the 320 when the 321s are supposed to have more range. The 321neo range is 7,400kms and DEL-IST is only 4,500kms. 30% less capacity sounds steep for a relatively short flight. Are they filling the planes so much? Sure, winds, but that bad? Shaving off more than 30% of range by winds? How come these issues are coming from the 321neo only and not the 320neo? Surprised IndiGo did not expect this if it is weather-related. It seems strange, definitely a prime route for the -LR or -XLR.


7400km range is with 3 ACTs. I'd guess without ACTs the range of A321neo would be somewhere around ~5500km still air. With reserve and headwinds, that may be too close for comfort. Also, FYI, planes do not directly fly the great circle route. They usually fly longer routes due to available alternate airports for emergency, congestion and geo-political reasons along with on non-optimal cruising altitude as well.
 
edealinfo
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 20, 2019 1:24 pm

FligtReporter wrote:
It would be great if they buy a few ATRs and fly them to Agra,Jaisalmer,Kullu etc to stop the daylight loot of Air India which charges more than the or equivalent amount of ticket price from Delhi to Bangkok on Del-kul sector


Why aren't Indigo and SpiceJet (which both have smaller planes) operating on these routes? While foreign tourists probably prefer a full service carrier, for shorter flights and small aircraft types, they probably wouldn't care if it is Indigo or Air India.

There is probably a 0% chance, at this point of their operations, that Vistara would operate a new small aircraft type as a) they don't have enough scale, b) they have 2 types of short haul aircraft (A320 and B737) when typically most airlines have 1, and c) in Feb 2019, they will be taking on a 3rd type of aircraft -- B787.
 
VTCIE
Posts: 417
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 20, 2019 1:31 pm

FligtReporter wrote:
Vistara is very soon may announce Khajuraho My favourite holiday destination.

the last five star airline that flew to HJR was Kingfisher..Its great to see Vistara finally connecting these world heritage sites.

It would be great if they buy a few ATRs and fly them to Agra,Jaisalmer,Kullu etc to stop the daylight loot of Air India which charges more than the or equivalent amount of ticket price from Delhi to Bangkok on Del-kul sector

To this day, Vistara does not serve a city as big as Jaipur. For that matter, it does not serve any South Indian destination other than BLR, HYD, MAA and COK. Heck, neither UK nor its sister company I5 served MAA before 2018—a MAAjor omission indeed.

Vistara might do well to launch JAI, PAT and IDR/BHO in northern India, and TRV, TRZ, VTZ and IXE in the south.
In grieving remembrance of the thousands of people who lost their lives on ET-AVJ, PK-LQP, XA-UHZ, S2-AGU, CP-2933, SU-GCC, EI-ETJ, D-AIPX, PK-AXC, 9M-MRD, VT-AXV and above all 9M-MRO, besides many more. Your deaths are not in vain. Safety first, always.
 
edealinfo
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Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 20, 2019 1:32 pm

sabby wrote:
airboss787 wrote:
I wonder why they have to block so many more seats on the 321 than the 320 when the 321s are supposed to have more range. The 321neo range is 7,400kms and DEL-IST is only 4,500kms. 30% less capacity sounds steep for a relatively short flight. Are they filling the planes so much? Sure, winds, but that bad? Shaving off more than 30% of range by winds? How come these issues are coming from the 321neo only and not the 320neo? Surprised IndiGo did not expect this if it is weather-related. It seems strange, definitely a prime route for the -LR or -XLR.


7400km range is with 3 ACTs. I'd guess without ACTs the range of A321neo would be somewhere around ~5500km still air. With reserve and headwinds, that may be too close for comfort. Also, FYI, planes do not directly fly the great circle route. They usually fly longer routes due to available alternate airports for emergency, congestion and geo-political reasons along with on non-optimal cruising altitude as well.


Just so I get this correct - the A321neo -- to get additional range needs additional compartmentalized fuel tanks called ACTs (the most of which are 3). This is an inefficient way to add range since 3 tanks have more structural weight than a single large tank that holds the same amount of fuel. Therefore, a better option is to go for the A321LR or the A321XLR that do not have such compartmentalized tanks. So, the question is whether Indigo erred in not getting the A321LR (a perfect fit for Delhi - IST????) when this aircraft is already on the market unlike the A321XLR which only be on the market in 2023 or 2024.
 
edealinfo
Posts: 2765
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 20, 2019 1:38 pm

VTCIE wrote:
FligtReporter wrote:
Vistara is very soon may announce Khajuraho My favourite holiday destination.

the last five star airline that flew to HJR was Kingfisher..Its great to see Vistara finally connecting these world heritage sites.

It would be great if they buy a few ATRs and fly them to Agra,Jaisalmer,Kullu etc to stop the daylight loot of Air India which charges more than the or equivalent amount of ticket price from Delhi to Bangkok on Del-kul sector

To this day, Vistara does not serve a city as big as Jaipur. For that matter, it does not serve any South Indian destination other than BLR, HYD, MAA and COK. Heck, neither UK nor its sister company I5 served MAA before 2018—a MAAjor omission indeed.

Vistara might do well to launch JAI, PAT and IDR/BHO in northern India, and TRV, TRZ, VTZ and IXE in the south.


Not having Jaipur in the network is puzzling. It is among the 10 largest cities in India. As far as I know, it is not even a Level 2 slot constrained airport so slots should be available for the asking. Could it be that Jaipur is just saturated with too many flights from all the other carriers such that Vistara adding a flight here or there would make its operations there nonviable?

Separately, of all the cities you mentioned, I think Vistara should go "all in" with MAA (Chennai). It is a Slot 3 restricted airport and has availability now only because Jet collapsed and all its slots were not taken up by other carriers. The slot-gap will close completely. My guess in that this will happen less than 12 to 18 months and then there will be zero available new slots at MAA for the next 10 years (or however long it takes for the authorities to plan, get gazillion approvals, clear likely court cases, design and finally build the new airport, access roads, etc). Those carriers that "take the fort" now, will have a competitive advantage. DEL and especially BOM slots are prized....and so will MAA . It would be shameful if a full service carrier such as Vistrara lets this opportunity slip. How could they be so blind to the obvious?
 
VTCIE
Posts: 417
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 20, 2019 1:45 pm

edealinfo wrote:
VTCIE wrote:
FligtReporter wrote:
Vistara is very soon may announce Khajuraho My favourite holiday destination.

the last five star airline that flew to HJR was Kingfisher..Its great to see Vistara finally connecting these world heritage sites.

It would be great if they buy a few ATRs and fly them to Agra,Jaisalmer,Kullu etc to stop the daylight loot of Air India which charges more than the or equivalent amount of ticket price from Delhi to Bangkok on Del-kul sector

To this day, Vistara does not serve a city as big as Jaipur. For that matter, it does not serve any South Indian destination other than BLR, HYD, MAA and COK. Heck, neither UK nor its sister company I5 served MAA before 2018—a MAAjor omission indeed.

Vistara might do well to launch JAI, PAT and IDR/BHO in northern India, and TRV, TRZ, VTZ and IXE in the south.

Not having Jaipur in the network is puzzling. It is among the 10 largest cities in India. As far as I know, it is not even a Level 2 slot constrained airport so slots should be available for the asking. Could it be that Jaipur is just saturated with too many flights from all the other carriers such that Vistara adding a flight here or there would make its operations there nonviable?

The eight biggest Indian cities (NOT from an aviation perspective) are (roughly in order) DEL, BOM, BLR, CCU, MAA, HYD, AMD and PNQ (MAA and HYD are interchangeable). Next comes COK, if I am not wrong. Then either JAI or LKO, maybe IXC. Of course, I am nitpicking on the exact order (whether or not JAI is in the top 10), but the fact remains that such a big city is missing from the Vistara network.

For that matter, it baffles me why Vistara serves IXR but not PAT. In a way Bihar is the ‘mother’ of Jharkhand, and Patna is bigger than Ranchi, so PAT is another omission in the Vistara network.

Interestingly JAI was the ICAO code of Jet Airways. Now that 9W is dead, Jaipur has lost its ‘namesake’ (in a sense) airline, so UK ought to fill the gap and start JAI.
In grieving remembrance of the thousands of people who lost their lives on ET-AVJ, PK-LQP, XA-UHZ, S2-AGU, CP-2933, SU-GCC, EI-ETJ, D-AIPX, PK-AXC, 9M-MRD, VT-AXV and above all 9M-MRO, besides many more. Your deaths are not in vain. Safety first, always.
 
edealinfo
Posts: 2765
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 20, 2019 1:49 pm

VTCIE wrote:
For that matter, it baffles me why Vistara serves IXR but not PAT. In a way Bihar is the ‘mother’ of Jharkhand, and Patna is bigger than Ranchi, so PAT is another omission in the Vistara network.


You have missed the earlier posts this week. PAT will soon be on Vistara's network (in Oct). DEL - PAT 2x daily. Not bad.
 
VTCIE
Posts: 417
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 20, 2019 2:01 pm

edealinfo wrote:
VTCIE wrote:
For that matter, it baffles me why Vistara serves IXR but not PAT. In a way Bihar is the ‘mother’ of Jharkhand, and Patna is bigger than Ranchi, so PAT is another omission in the Vistara network.

You have missed the earlier posts this week. PAT will soon be on Vistara's network (in Oct). DEL - PAT 2x daily. Not bad.

Good for PAT. Indeed, since I am only an occasional user of the A.net forums and the Indian Aviation thread (and particularly the threads on the 9W collapse, which are as hot as the burning sun), it is only natural that I missed this announcement.

Now it is high time someone (not necessarily Indian) started year-round flights from PAT to BKK, and perhaps DXB or SIN.
In grieving remembrance of the thousands of people who lost their lives on ET-AVJ, PK-LQP, XA-UHZ, S2-AGU, CP-2933, SU-GCC, EI-ETJ, D-AIPX, PK-AXC, 9M-MRD, VT-AXV and above all 9M-MRO, besides many more. Your deaths are not in vain. Safety first, always.
 
edealinfo
Posts: 2765
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 20, 2019 2:02 pm

VTCIE wrote:
edealinfo wrote:
VTCIE wrote:
To this day, Vistara does not serve a city as big as Jaipur. For that matter, it does not serve any South Indian destination other than BLR, HYD, MAA and COK. Heck, neither UK nor its sister company I5 served MAA before 2018—a MAAjor omission indeed.

Vistara might do well to launch JAI, PAT and IDR/BHO in northern India, and TRV, TRZ, VTZ and IXE in the south.

Not having Jaipur in the network is puzzling. It is among the 10 largest cities in India. As far as I know, it is not even a Level 2 slot constrained airport so slots should be available for the asking. Could it be that Jaipur is just saturated with too many flights from all the other carriers such that Vistara adding a flight here or there would make its operations there nonviable?

The eight biggest Indian cities (NOT from an aviation perspective) are (roughly in order) DEL, BOM, BLR, CCU, MAA, HYD, AMD and PNQ (MAA and HYD are interchangeable). Next comes COK, if I am not wrong. Then either JAI or LKO, maybe IXC. Of course, I am nitpicking on the exact order (whether or not JAI is in the top 10), but the fact remains that such a big city is missing from the Vistara network.

For that matter, it baffles me why Vistara serves IXR but not PAT. In a way Bihar is the ‘mother’ of Jharkhand, and Patna is bigger than Ranchi, so PAT is another omission in the Vistara network.

Interestingly JAI was the ICAO code of Jet Airways. Now that 9W is dead, Jaipur has lost its ‘namesake’ (in a sense) airline, so UK ought to fill the gap and start JAI.


Ok, here are my suggestions to grab MAA slots, assuming Vistara can't use BOM and DEL:

MAA - Goa (2X daily)
MAA - PNQ (3X daily?)
MAA - IXC (1x daily)
MAA - AMD (2x daily?)
MAA - IDR (1x daily)
MAA - CCU (1x daily......can be dicey since CCU is also a Level 3 slot restricted airport)

This would give them 20 slots or 10 slot pairs.
 
avier
Posts: 1252
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 20, 2019 2:11 pm

VTCIE wrote:
Vistara might do well to launch JAI, PAT and IDR/BHO in northern India, and TRV, TRZ, VTZ and IXE in the south.

All those places would make sense only when they have more slots at DEL & BOM. They can still get some at DEL, but not sure of BOM for any more.
 
edealinfo
Posts: 2765
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 20, 2019 2:17 pm

avier wrote:
VTCIE wrote:
Vistara might do well to launch JAI, PAT and IDR/BHO in northern India, and TRV, TRZ, VTZ and IXE in the south.

All those places would make sense only when they have more slots at DEL & BOM. They can still get some at DEL, but not sure of BOM for any more.


Why "only from DEL and BOM"? Wouldn't any other City support a 3rd mini-hub for Vistara? How can Vistara grow if it relies only on BOM and DEL where slots are very hard to come by. Wouldn't this be an ideal time for them to use MAA as their South Indian mini-hub given that BLR seems to be over-run by low cost carriers? Also, other than BOM, DEL and BLR, isn't MAA the next best fit for a full service carrier?
 
edealinfo
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 20, 2019 2:31 pm

avier wrote:
VTCIE wrote:
Vistara might do well to launch JAI, PAT and IDR/BHO in northern India, and TRV, TRZ, VTZ and IXE in the south.

All those places would make sense only when they have more slots at DEL & BOM. They can still get some at DEL, but not sure of BOM for any more.


Do you really think Vistara can support DEL - IXE when SpiceJet is already on this route? Are you sure there is any sort of premium demand on the DEL - IXE route?
 
sabby
Posts: 474
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 20, 2019 2:55 pm

edealinfo wrote:
sabby wrote:
airboss787 wrote:
I wonder why they have to block so many more seats on the 321 than the 320 when the 321s are supposed to have more range. The 321neo range is 7,400kms and DEL-IST is only 4,500kms. 30% less capacity sounds steep for a relatively short flight. Are they filling the planes so much? Sure, winds, but that bad? Shaving off more than 30% of range by winds? How come these issues are coming from the 321neo only and not the 320neo? Surprised IndiGo did not expect this if it is weather-related. It seems strange, definitely a prime route for the -LR or -XLR.


7400km range is with 3 ACTs. I'd guess without ACTs the range of A321neo would be somewhere around ~5500km still air. With reserve and headwinds, that may be too close for comfort. Also, FYI, planes do not directly fly the great circle route. They usually fly longer routes due to available alternate airports for emergency, congestion and geo-political reasons along with on non-optimal cruising altitude as well.


Just so I get this correct - the A321neo -- to get additional range needs additional compartmentalized fuel tanks called ACTs (the most of which are 3). This is an inefficient way to add range since 3 tanks have more structural weight than a single large tank that holds the same amount of fuel. Therefore, a better option is to go for the A321LR or the A321XLR that do not have such compartmentalized tanks. So, the question is whether Indigo erred in not getting the A321LR (a perfect fit for Delhi - IST????) when this aircraft is already on the market unlike the A321XLR which only be on the market in 2023 or 2024.


This is inefficient but cost-effective and with less risk if the route doesn't pan out. When Indigo or any other LCC are sure that they can make a lot of money in multiple routes so that they don't have to use the XLR in domestic or short haul routes to increase utilisation, they will buy XLRs. Btw, A321LR is nothing but the same A321neo with 3 ACT since some time. Just with increased cost and more certifications. Indigo's A321neo fleet can be easily turned to A321LR with ACTs but they have to compromise even more on payload. A321LR/XLR are more geared to the FSCs serving/opening long/thin route not profitable with wide body aircraft.
 
killswitch13
Posts: 89
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 10:52 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 20, 2019 3:34 pm

edealinfo wrote:
avier wrote:
VTCIE wrote:
Vistara might do well to launch JAI, PAT and IDR/BHO in northern India, and TRV, TRZ, VTZ and IXE in the south.

All those places would make sense only when they have more slots at DEL & BOM. They can still get some at DEL, but not sure of BOM for any more.


Do you really think Vistara can support DEL - IXE when SpiceJet is already on this route? Are you sure there is any sort of premium demand on the DEL - IXE route?



UK should start BOM-IXE. 9W if I'm not mistaken used to fly 4X daily. Currently you have AI and SG with 1x Daily and 6E with 2X daily.
 
avier
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 20, 2019 3:35 pm

edealinfo wrote:
Why "only from DEL and BOM"? Wouldn't any other City support a 3rd mini-hub for Vistara? How can Vistara grow if it relies only on BOM and DEL where slots are very hard to come by. Wouldn't this be an ideal time for them to use MAA as their South Indian mini-hub given that BLR seems to be over-run by low cost carriers? Also, other than BOM, DEL and BLR, isn't MAA the next best fit for a full service carrier?

Going by their recent pattern, they seem to want to focus on DEL/BOM the most. Opening multiple bases for this high cost airline will only sink it further into the red. Also to main quality and standardization when having multiple bases for a premium airline would be a nightmare especially on the catering aspect***. Or they should have more all Y planes to expand a pan India service to compete effectively with the other airlines.

***I often used to find AI's catering to be really good ex-BOM, and sucked on ex-BLR flights, when uplifted from those respective cities.
edealinfo wrote:
Do you really think Vistara can support DEL - IXE when SpiceJet is already on this route? Are you sure there is any sort of premium demand on the DEL - IXE route?

9W served DEL-IXE till almost their last full schedule. They also did serve upto around 4 daily on BOM-IXE. BOM for sure would have premium demand on the route. About DEL, it's more about having developing a hub to feed their future long haul services. Hence they serve many other tier 2 towns, where one can question if whether premium demand exists on those routes or not.
 
edealinfo
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 20, 2019 4:47 pm

sabby wrote:

This is inefficient but cost-effective and with less risk if the route doesn't pan out. When Indigo or any other LCC are sure that they can make a lot of money in multiple routes so that they don't have to use the XLR in domestic or short haul routes to increase utilisation, they will buy XLRs. Btw, A321LR is nothing but the same A321neo with 3 ACT since some time. Just with increased cost and more certifications. Indigo's A321neo fleet can be easily turned to A321LR with ACTs but they have to compromise even more on payload. A321LR/XLR are more geared to the FSCs serving/opening long/thin route not profitable with wide body aircraft.

Excellent info. Thanks!
Last edited by edealinfo on Fri Sep 20, 2019 4:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
edealinfo
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 20, 2019 4:49 pm

killswitch13 wrote:

UK should start BOM-IXE. 9W if I'm not mistaken used to fly 4X daily. Currently you have AI and SG with 1x Daily and 6E with 2X daily.


I don’t think anyone would dispute that route but the issue is that Vistara may not have a spare BOM slot for it.
 
vadodara
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 20, 2019 6:07 pm

Many have discussed about aviation growth. My simple submission that few markets seem to have been totally overlooked:

a) Maharashtra continues to be the highest GDP state of India; it is relatively underserved outside of BOM
b) Gujarat is India's most urban state with > 50% of population residing there, with employment in white collar jobs and business, not to mention a large diaspora that travels/visits more frequently
c) A significant chunk of population resides in C India (which include parts of MH) likes of Bhopal/Indore/Jaipur

Growth of Indian aviation seems to have followed a colonial mind-set with artificial throttles imposed on traditional economic centers.
 
edealinfo
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 20, 2019 7:57 pm

vadodara wrote:
Many have discussed about aviation growth. My simple submission that few markets seem to have been totally overlooked:

a) Maharashtra continues to be the highest GDP state of India; it is relatively underserved outside of BOM
b) Gujarat is India's most urban state with > 50% of population residing there, with employment in white collar jobs and business, not to mention a large diaspora that travels/visits more frequently
c) A significant chunk of population resides in C India (which include parts of MH) likes of Bhopal/Indore/Jaipur

Growth of Indian aviation seems to have followed a colonial mind-set with artificial throttles imposed on traditional economic centers.


Your message is a bit cryptic. To make things clear, could you indicate potential routes that could conceivably by feasible. Thanks
 
VTORD
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Fri Sep 20, 2019 8:58 pm

edealinfo wrote:

Your message is a bit cryptic. To make things clear, could you indicate potential routes that could conceivably by feasible. Thanks


vadodara wrote:
Many have discussed about aviation growth. My simple submission that few markets seem to have been totally overlooked:

a) Maharashtra continues to be the highest GDP state of India; it is relatively underserved outside of BOM
b) Gujarat is India's most urban state with > 50% of population residing there, with employment in white collar jobs and business, not to mention a large diaspora that travels/visits more frequently
c) A significant chunk of population resides in C India (which include parts of MH) likes of Bhopal/Indore/Jaipur


I think he is trying to make the case for"B India-to-B India" and "C India-to-C India" connectivity being overlooked in these states. e.g., BDQ/AMD-IDR. This sector has strong cultural traffic + a good chunk of trade commonality in terms of driving industries (e.g., Pharma). Personally I am skeptical if you can fill up a NB on a regular basis. An ATR might work. Refer also to VTCIE's point, UK for example haven't yet added COK, TRV and the likes. At it's peak 9W used to operate up to 4 x D BOM-BDQ and yet AI and UK have both stayed away (AI added second DEL) and 6E is the only carrier to BOM. I am not saying add it before the likes UDR, PAT, JAI, COK or even NAG but BDQ can fill up a premium cabin on an A320/B737 with it's industrial presence - ONGC, Mahindra Tractors, GM, Reliance Petroleum, Fertilizers, Gujarat Cycles, L&T, ABB to name a few.
 
avier
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sat Sep 21, 2019 11:25 am

VTORD wrote:
Refer also to VTCIE's point, UK for example haven't yet added COK, TRV and the likes.

Vistara does fly to COK. It was one of their earliest destinations they had added.
 
edealinfo
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Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sat Sep 21, 2019 1:27 pm

The "Enforcement Directorate" doesn't like the Ernest & Young (EY) audit of Jet conducted on behalf of SBI and therefore will order its own independent audit:

lhttps://www.livemint.com/companies/new ... 13707.html
 
edealinfo
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sat Sep 21, 2019 1:33 pm

Mumbai airport awaits takers for international slots of Jet Airways

https://indianexpress.com/article/citie ... s-6015050/

"FIVE MONTHS after Indian carrier Jet Airways stopped operations, Mumbai’s Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj International Airport (MIAL) has finished allotting all domestic slots of the cash-strapped airline to various Indian carriers, but is still awaiting takers for the airline’s international slots."

Separately, let me say this again. Within 12 to 18 months, all domestic slots of MAA airport will also be fully utilized so Vistara should go after them now that regret it later.

“A number of international slots are still vacant and the process of plugging those gaps will take close to six months,” the official said, adding that 60 per cent of Jet’s international slots have been filled up at MIAL. Across India, 175 of Jet’s 346 international slots at AAI airports are still to be allotted to other carriers.
 
vadodara
Posts: 1146
Joined: Mon Feb 20, 2017 7:45 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sat Sep 21, 2019 1:34 pm

VTORD wrote:
edealinfo wrote:

Your message is a bit cryptic. To make things clear, could you indicate potential routes that could conceivably by feasible. Thanks


I think he is trying to make the case for"B India-to-B India" and "C India-to-C India" connectivity being overlooked in these states. e.g., BDQ/AMD-IDR. This sector has strong cultural traffic + a good chunk of trade commonality in terms of driving industries (e.g., Pharma). Personally I am skeptical if you can fill up a NB on a regular basis. An ATR might work. Refer also to VTCIE's point, UK for example haven't yet added COK, TRV and the likes. At it's peak 9W used to operate up to 4 x D BOM-BDQ and yet AI and UK have both stayed away (AI added second DEL) and 6E is the only carrier to BOM. I am not saying add it before the likes UDR, PAT, JAI, COK or even NAG but BDQ can fill up a premium cabin on an A320/B737 with it's industrial presence - ONGC, Mahindra Tractors, GM, Reliance Petroleum, Fertilizers, Gujarat Cycles, L&T, ABB to name a few.


Yes, to extend what VTORD just mentioned:
a) any nonmetro routes that have sprung out of STV
b) just follow the growth pattern at Shirdi airport

To VTORD's point, I am not necessarily suggesting a 737 or a A32X would be the aircraft of choice. Could be a Dornier, ATR or even a E17X.

With the shortage of crew and aviation taxes what they are, a E17X might be optimum because it could offer potential of conducting a day-trip. Right now, a person trying to conduct business may end up spending 2 days travelling for a day's worth of work.
 
edealinfo
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Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sat Sep 21, 2019 1:35 pm

GoAir most punctual airline for 12 months in a row

I am surprised to note that Vistara came second last which ain't great for a full service airline that charges a premium over low cost airline fares..

https://indianexpress.com/article/busin ... o-6016390/
 
edealinfo
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sat Sep 21, 2019 1:53 pm

IndiGo to stop Kuwait flight from Kannur

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 471945.ece
 
edealinfo
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sat Sep 21, 2019 2:27 pm

The link below has a great article titled, "Demystifying the Air India Asset Holdings bond offering"

https://www.bangaloreaviation.com/2019/ ... ering.html

The article include this VERY IMPORTANT piece of information:
Interestingly the SPV (Special Purpose Vehicle) also holds claim to slots at airports, landing rights and operating rights.

Oh, WOW, WOW, WOW! This implication of this is that the buyer of Air India will not have automatic rights to the slots. Presumably, it will have to be leased from the SPV. [What is the Government thinking????? It should make Air India attractive to buyers not throw hurdles in the way!]
 
edealinfo
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 22, 2019 1:28 am

Once the 737max ban is lifted, all of SpiceJet’s grounded planes ( 8 or 11, I can’t remember) plus others that have already been built but waiting to be delivered by Boeing will suddenly be on the Indian market. how does SpiceJet hope to cope with the sudden influx? Obviously, they can’t work it in DEL and BOM because of the shortage of slots. OMG, maybe Ajay Singh will use it to grab all the remaining slots at Chennai. If so, he may be a brilliant strategist who will outfox the competition just as he did on Jet’s collapse!
 
CPS001
Posts: 274
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 22, 2019 1:46 am

^^ in fact, SpiceJet just announced a slew of new flights out of Chennai, including frequencies to RDP, JAI, PAT, CCU, BLR, VTZ, AMD and CJB.
 
edealinfo
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 22, 2019 2:15 am

CPS001 wrote:
^^ in fact, SpiceJet just announced a slew of new flights out of Chennai, including frequencies to RDP, JAI, PAT, CCU, BLR, VTZ, AMD and CJB.


OMG, OMG, OMG! I crown ajay singh the King! He gets it! Vistara you had your chance and you blew it, again!
 
VTORD
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 22, 2019 2:18 am

avier wrote:
Vistara does fly to COK. It was one of their earliest destinations they had added.

My bad, i should have checked the route map more carefully.
Thanks for clarifying!
 
edealinfo
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 22, 2019 2:27 am

I previously said that in 12 to 18 months all MAA slots will be exhausted. Now, I say 3 to 6 months.
 
User avatar
unrave
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 22, 2019 4:43 am

edealinfo wrote:
I previously said that in 12 to 18 months all MAA slots will be exhausted. Now, I say 3 to 6 months.

No
17April2019: RIP Jet Airways
 
edealinfo
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 22, 2019 11:53 am

unrave wrote:
edealinfo wrote:
I previously said that in 12 to 18 months all MAA slots will be exhausted. Now, I say 3 to 6 months.

No


Huh? please elaborate. From what I understand, there were only 40 slots available at MAA prior to the SpriceJet announcement (of flights out of Chennai, including frequencies to RDP, JAI, PAT, CCU, BLR, VTZ, AMD and CJB.)

I am unclear whether 40 slots or 40 slot pairs were available at MAA prior to Spicejet's announcement. SpiceJet has OBVIOUSLY identified that MAA slots are hot and are "all in" going after them; something other carriers have yet to wake up to! There ain't going to be a new airport at Chennai for the next 10 years (or 5 years) as would be the case for New Delhi and Bombay. So, those locking-in MAA slots now would have a great advantage. It boggles me that other carriers haven't moved just as fast as SpriceJet. I particularly blame Vistara.

The Tatas, who had access to Jet's books in October 2018, should have know that Jet's downfall was imminent and prepared well to close the gap. Instead, they took the posture that they would buy Jet's assets at bankruptcy when knowing fully-well that India's bankruptcy process is a long drawn out process. They hewed and hemmed and guess what, Spicejet quickly moved in, leased 40 of ex-Jet's aircraft, and grabbed the best slot. Round 1 goes to SpiceJet by a big margin. Vistara, by taking over 10 ex-Jet aircraft salvaged something but nevertheless, SpiceJet had a 4: 1 advantage.

Now move over to Round 2:
About a week ago, I did some research on Level 3 and Level 2 slot restricted airports and it became apparent to me that MAA (Chennai) offered a golden opportunity for slots. Despite being Slot 3 restricted, suddenly 40 slots are still up for grabs. On this forum, I proclaimed the opportunity and declared that airlines should go all-in for it before it is too late.

Who am I? Just an aviation fan but I think I take in so much information that I am able to spot golden nuggets, like I did on the MAA slots.

Now, who thinks like I do on the slots? Apparently, Ajay Singh of SpiceJet.....and boy, is he moving fast on those MAA slots. Where is Vistara - my favorite? This should have been theirs instead and for that I am pissed they didn't see the opportunity that Spicejet has seen so clearly! I would have loved for Vistara to have been the victor in Round 2, but guess what, they are nowhere. And, I am concerned that they might be late to the party for even scraps at Round 2.

It is such a shame! Vistara now has both A320 and B737 planes so they could have leased either of the two to fill in any gap to go after the MAA slots. Heck, if I am not mistaken, they should even be getting 2 brand new A320neos very soon. Will they deploy these 2 aircraft (or substitutes from within their fleet) to do exclusive MAA routes. I think they should!

Golden opportunities rarely present themselves in front of your door! Vistara missed the primary bus on Round 1; they need to at least get their butt moving on Round 2! Now!
 
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unrave
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 22, 2019 12:20 pm

edealinfo wrote:
Huh? please elaborate. From what I understand, there were only 40 slots available at MAA prior!

40 ex Jet Airways slots. Those are not the only slots at MAA. The airport has a lot more room to grow.
17April2019: RIP Jet Airways
 
edealinfo
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 22, 2019 12:46 pm

unrave wrote:
edealinfo wrote:
Huh? please elaborate. From what I understand, there were only 40 slots available at MAA prior!

40 ex Jet Airways slots. Those are not the only slots at MAA. The airport has a lot more room to grow.


If this is the case, why is it a "Level 3" designated slot restricted airport meaning that no additional slots are available? If there was room to grow, it would be Level 2 (like AMD), not Level 3 (like BOM).
 
edealinfo
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - September 2019

Sun Sep 22, 2019 2:05 pm

Hyderabad airport receives environmental clearance to double its annual operating capacity from 25 M to 50 M. The expansion would cost $1.2 billion.

https://www.aviationindia.net/2019/09/h ... e-its.html
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