It seems like all the significant mergers
are done and I don’t see more on the horizon


A few maybes ?


Hawaiian / Alaska

Alaska / Jet Blue

Frontier / Spirit


And the big one would be United acquiring Jet Blue, this would at one stroke get UA
back into JFK, management has stated several times they would like to be back in that market and what a mistake it was to leave


A merged Jet Blue would also significantly beef up UA’s presence in the southeast US,
the only ‘weak area’ in their unparalleled
route system


Of course the trade offs are, as always
probably too high


With an acquisition of B6 United would completely monopolize the NY market
across EWR, LGA and JFK and regulators
would not allow it to proceed without significant divestitures at all three


And beefing up routes in Florida and the
SE would spark a fierce battle with AA
from their fortress hub in Miami


So I just don’t see that happening

Not by a long shot. Of the major airlines, JetBlue is next on the chopping block. Don’t know who would take them over though, could be United, Alaska, Frontier, or Spirit.

Also many of the regionals I don’t think will be around in the future. Expect mergers/consolidation/shutdowns of Air Wisconsin, Mesa, CommutAir, and TSH Holding airlines (Compass, GoJet, and Trans States).

Mergers are done at the top. As mentioned, there’s going to be some market forces that force some consolidation on the regional side of the industry. These will be mergers of opportunity. The stronger regionals don’t need any of these struggling carriers for their own survival, however in a fire sale they will find some assets worth purchasing.

Max Q wrote:

It seems like all the significant mergers
are done and I don’t see more on the horizon


A few maybes ?


Hawaiian / Alaska

Alaska / Jet Blue

Frontier / Spirit


And the big one would be United acquiring Jet Blue, this would at one stroke get UA
back into JFK, management has stated several times they would like to be back in that market and what a mistake it was to leave


A merged Jet Blue would also significantly beef up UA’s presence in the southeast US,
the only ‘weak area’ in their unparalleled
route system


Of course the trade offs are, as always
probably too high


With an acquisition of B6 United would completely monopolize the NY market
across EWR, LGA and JFK and regulators
would not allow it to proceed without significant divestitures at all three


And beefing up routes in Florida and the
SE would spark a fierce battle with AA
from their fortress hub in Miami


So I just don’t see that happening

I think UA would be wise to steer clear of B6, I think NK would be a much better acquisition for UA. It gets them the opportunity to build upon NK's large operations in FLL and MCO. It also gives UA some opportunities for focus cities. While it doesn't get them back into Kennedy airport, it does gives them more LGA slots and valuable gates at airports like LAX. Also NK's workforce is smaller and younger than B6.


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Consolidation is not close to over. Actually, I'm expecting a ton of it in the next recession.

My bets:

Sun country: Bought by Southwest (or maybe Alaska if they don't buy B6), fleet is quite compatable.
Allegiant: Bought by Spirit (Not Frontier, why would they buy a fleet of aircraft that they are disposing, the A319).
JetBlue/Alaska/Hawaiian: I think they'll merge in a similar way as UA and CO. A B6, AS, and HA merger would make the fifth largest US airline, almost as big as United mainline by fleet size. Although, I believe that only two of the three will merge.


SY is definitively next to go...

bigb wrote:

The next round of consolidations are going to be at the regional level. There are a abundance of regional carriers whose contracts are coming up for renewal. As those contracts come up, they will either, be renewed, or not be renewed which will lead to said regional losing its flying. As a regional lose it flying, it will be force to shrink, shutdown, or merge with someone, or figure out a way to gain replacement flying. See Compass and GoJet for this example.

This. The big winner will be SkyWest unless the economy wrecks Alaska Airlines, they are doing about 15% of Alaska’s flying and that could hurt, but still leave them the biggest player. In alternate, they could absorb Horizon if Alaska is hurting and needs some cash which would wind up being a bonus. SkyWest and Republic will be the last man standing so to speak. SkyWest gobbling up the UA/DL regionals and Republic the AA regionals.

As for the Majors...JetBlue seems like a target, but I’m not so sure. There could be issues with DL or AA due to JFK, which could make UA the only potential suitor. Maybe JetBlue gobbles up Frontier as a shield. I agree with others that Southwest would gobble up Sun Country, even if just for the assets. Maybe Spirit and Allegiant mash up. I can also see AS and HA enter into a strategic alliance to insulate themselves a bit. Some of the smaller airlines will just vanish.

I could see JetBlue go for spirit or even spirit go for JetBlue. That would be interesting.

What's this obsession with mergers and consolidation? It's as if some people on here won't be happy until the US is left with a single carrier.

Blerg wrote:

What's this obsession with mergers and consolidation? It's as if some people on here won't be happy until the US is left with a single carrier.

Consolidation is inevitable and cuts out waste. There will always be competition, but there is such a thing as too much competition which wastes resources.

Blerg wrote:

What's this obsession with mergers and consolidation? It's as if some people on here won't be happy until the US is left with a single carrier.

I didn't read this as a wish list, more of a prediction.

DL717 wrote:

Blerg wrote:

What's this obsession with mergers and consolidation? It's as if some people on here won't be happy until the US is left with a single carrier.

Consolidation is inevitable and cuts out waste. There will always be competition, but there is such a thing as too much competition which wastes resources.

That's what people kept on saying about social media yet here we are today. Be careful what you wish for. Competition forces businesses to remain competitive and customer friendly so let's hope we get more airlines, not less.

Blerg wrote:

What's this obsession with mergers and consolidation? It's as if some people on here won't be happy until the US is left with a single carrier.

Given the cost of capital ownership and the incremental cost of providing additional seats on a flight, airlines are unnerving close to being a natural monopoly. It's too easy to set up a scenario that sees the firm being forced to operate at a loss.

The only thing that keeps an airline from being so is how quickly the assets can be moved around. An airplane is not a hydroelectric dam that cannot be transferred to find somewhere to make money.

This means, however, that there is no safe place to make money for an airline in a pure market. In theory, within days any airline can see composition anywhere within its route system.

Take the example of Mark Air. They went toe-to-toe with Alaska in Alaska, and lost. They folded operations in the state, and suddenly all airlines needed to adjust to the reality of a fleet of 737s based out of Denver.

In such chaos, there will always be losers with assets up for acquisition.

The only merger at the major level I see happening in the next few years is Frontier/Spirit. With a huge fleet and the lowest costs in the industry, they could setup small bases anywhere they want and undercut the majors on almost every route and make money.

I don't see Sun Country being acquired anytime soon by another carrier. They are just starting their ULCC plan and have a lot more work to do in terms of becoming an attractive buyout candidate. Their strongest business is probably their sports charters right now.

Hawaiian/Alaska and Alaska/Jetblue I see no chance of happening.

Blerg wrote:

What's this obsession with mergers and consolidation? It's as if some people on here won't be happy until the US is left with a single carrier.

Because they are good for business, shareholders, and employees.

So bring them on.

As a related question, how closely could two smaller carriers tie themselves together with a joint venture before it becomes collusion?

CobaltScar wrote:

Blerg wrote:

What's this obsession with mergers and consolidation? It's as if some people on here won't be happy until the US is left with a single carrier.

Because they are good for business, shareholders, and employees.

So bring them on.

Yes, very excellent for employees who, you know, get laid off because of work overlap.

And even better for all those wanting to get into aviation and having less/no job opportunities to choose from because there's no one to work for.

Yes, bring them on.

CobaltScar wrote:

Blerg wrote:

What's this obsession with mergers and consolidation? It's as if some people on here won't be happy until the US is left with a single carrier.

Because they are good for business, shareholders, and employees.

So bring them on.

Consolidation is only good for shareholders who can get larger bonuses thanks to higher fares.

SY and B6 are definitely next on the chopping block. Quite frankly - how nobody has bought SY to this point given the shortage of MAXs is rather amazing

The next round of consolidations are going to be at the regional level.

Agreed.

To the idea of a United - Jet Blue merger, I doubt that that would happen. Apart from the obvious antitrust issues, the two airlines are very far apart from each other in terms of culture. Look how the United - Continental merger went, with Continental work groups still doing little things to show their anti-merger feelings years later (I was on a United flight a year and a half ago and the cabin and flight crews still referred to themselves as a Continental Los Angeles based flight crew, and there are other examples). Its died down, but its still there in the background as one brand new FA told me while deadheading, though admittedly dying down a great deal since the days. Can United absorb another very different culture quickly and efficiently? Perhaps, but I doubt it.

United flying Mint? Not gonna happen. Ever fly UAL domestic first class? I am in November LAX-CLE on a 739. Different business models and cultures there, too. Now, toss in the antitrust issues and its not gonna happen, nor should it. If United wants back int JFK then they need to work their way back there on their own, earning it and the increased revenue that will come from it.

NameOmitted wrote:

Blerg wrote:

What's this obsession with mergers and consolidation? It's as if some people on here won't be happy until the US is left with a single carrier.

Given the cost of capital ownership and the incremental cost of providing additional seats on a flight, airlines are unnerving close to being a natural monopoly. It's too easy to set up a scenario that sees the firm being forced to operate at a loss.

The only thing that keeps an airline from being so is how quickly the assets can be moved around. An airplane is not a hydroelectric dam that cannot be transferred to find somewhere to make money.

This means, however, that there is no safe place to make money for an airline in a pure market. In theory, within days any airline can see composition anywhere within its route system.

Take the example of Mark Air. They went toe-to-toe with Alaska in Alaska, and lost. They folded operations in the state, and suddenly all airlines needed to adjust to the reality of a fleet of 737s based out of Denver.

In such chaos, there will always be losers with assets up for acquisition.

For the first time since deregulation airlines are actually making money. That’s far from chaos. On the contrary, it represents order.

Justice will never allow AA, DL or UA to aquire anything but a regional feeder they already use to feed their hubs. Of course AA, DL or LUV would love to aquire AS, never will happen, west coast fares would skyrocket !

AS and JB and/or Hawaiian maybe, Frontier/Spirit probably, SY for the aircraft only, Allegiant good question. Next recession will tell.

We need competition in this industry, look at LUV, no longer low cost, generally the same or higher than the big 3

Blerg wrote:

CobaltScar wrote:

Blerg wrote:

What's this obsession with mergers and consolidation? It's as if some people on here won't be happy until the US is left with a single carrier.

Because they are good for business, shareholders, and employees.

So bring them on.

Consolidation is only good for shareholders who can get larger bonuses thanks to higher fares.

Wrong. It provides stability to not only the companies, but also the employees.

FF630 wrote:

Justice will never allow AA, DL or UA to aquire anything but a regional feeder they already use to feed their hubs. Of course AA, DL or LUV would love to aquire AS, never will happen, west coast fares would skyrocket !

AS and JB and/or Hawaiian maybe, Frontier/Spirit probably, SY for the aircraft only, Allegiant good question. Next recession will tell.

We need competition in this industry, look at LUV, no longer low cost, generally the same or higher than the big 3

WN is still low cost. The fly much longer routes and that has a cost. Their short haul is still ridiculously cheap.

Blerg wrote:

What's this obsession with mergers and consolidation? It's as if some people on here won't be happy until the US is left with a single carrier.

It tends to happen. I have to say that this last set of mega-mergers didn't work out as horribly as I had imagined. NW (I think my distaste for that carrier is well-known) is gone and replaced by a far superior airline. UA is finally pulling its act together. AA...well...they have some...um...opportunities for improvement.

Then there was the AS/VS merger, which made no sense other than that AS had to buy VS or they'd be overrun by B6. That resulted in the loss of a really great carrier (VS) and AS has made no attempt to maintain that brand or what attracted people to it.

The space is constrained now. People keep talking about HA merging with someone, but HA seems hell-bent on being independent. Merging with AS makes little sense because it will simply make a national carrier with little to no presence in the most populous part of the nation (the East). NK could merge with F9, but that would eliminate LCC competition.

If anything, I could see WN buying AS but AS also seems hell-bent on being independent.

I agree that it's the regionals who will merge next, and because few passengers buy tickets directly from regionals or even know which regional they're flying, it won't be noticed.

Blerg wrote:

What's this obsession with mergers and consolidation? It's as if some people on here won't be happy until the US is left with a single carrier.

Oh, but think of all the Heritage jets!

I can’t see B6 and UA merging, and FLL is to far South to serve as a hun for the southeast ala ATL for DL or CLT for AA.


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When the US abolished the Sherman Act, the US ceased to be a free market economy. That is not an opinion, it's a definition of economics : the US3 oligopoly is influencing fares, the central condition of market economy, "atomicity of actors", is no more. Big players are influencing prices.

Case in point : I was just looking at direct international flights to the US for the next months. Without going into my O/D, someone please explain to me why does ITA Matrix / Googleflights list me the same fares for AA, DL or UA, not to mention that connections differ greatly ( DFW, ATL, IAD, JFK ). Unless Google throws in some lambda correction, if that is not price collusion, I don't know what is.

Just to say that in a sound economic environment, the mergers should not only be over, but the US3 should be investigated & demerged. Same applies to LH & LATAM, their respective market shares control their local market, which is against the law.

I predict, on absolutely 0 basis, that Moxy Air will be merged into somebody in the next decade.

DWC wrote:

When the US abolished the Sherman Act, the US ceased to be a free market economy. That is not an opinion, it's a definition of economics : the US3 oligopoly is influencing fares, the central condition of market economy, "atomicity of actors", is no more. Big players are influencing prices.

Case in point : I was just looking at direct international flights to the US for the next months. Without going into my O/D, someone please explain to me why does ITA Matrix / Googleflights list me the same fares for AA, DL or UA, not to mention that connections differ greatly ( DFW, ATL, IAD, JFK ). Unless Google throws in some lambda correction, if that is not price collusion, I don't know what is.

Just to say that in a sound economic environment, the mergers should not only be over, but the US3 should be investigated & demerged. Same applies to LH & LATAM, their respective market shares control their local market, which is against the law.

ummm..

https://www.ftc.gov/tips-advice/competi ... trust-laws

There is no way DOJ will approve a major 3 acquisition of a smaller carrier (besides maybe SY, by someone other than DL) unless the economy totally crashes and the said smaller carrier is on the verge of liquidation. Think about the initial push back against AA/US, and then the continued fight with state’s AG. There can also be an activist judge situation that would really take a deep look at a merger of this size and have something to say (ie CVS/Aetna)

I think that a merger in between F9/NK would be complimentary except it will really kill all competition in the ULCC space when it comes to major airports. G4 has a totally different model than F9/NK, think the travel agency model, opening their own resorts, etc. Their focus is trying to serve underserved airports and moving them to sun destinations. NK/F9 tried to scrap the bottom of the barrel of major routes across the country.

The only way G4 will merge is if they’re the one acquiring the other airline, and taking a look at their model and reimagining their airline.

DWC wrote:

When the US abolished the Sherman Act, the US ceased to be a free market economy. That is not an opinion, it's a definition of economics : the US3 oligopoly is influencing fares, the central condition of market economy, "atomicity of actors", is no more. Big players are influencing prices.

Case in point : I was just looking at direct international flights to the US for the next months. Without going into my O/D, someone please explain to me why does ITA Matrix / Googleflights list me the same fares for AA, DL or UA, not to mention that connections differ greatly ( DFW, ATL, IAD, JFK ). Unless Google throws in some lambda correction, if that is not price collusion, I don't know what is.

Just to say that in a sound economic environment, the mergers should not only be over, but the US3 should be investigated & demerged. Same applies to LH & LATAM, their respective market shares control their local market, which is against the law.

That isn't a case in point at all. All that it means is that one airline is setting a price and others are matching it. Then airline 2 may drop the price, which leads to the others following. With instant price availability online, every airline knows what every other airline is selling their tickets for.

Big players always have influenced prices. if best buy puts a TV on sale, others tend to match or beat it. None of this amounts to collusion. Collusion requires the parties to knowingly and willingly price set. Correlation != Causation.

DL717 wrote:

DWC wrote:

When the US abolished the Sherman Act, the US ceased to be a free market economy. That is not an opinion, it's a definition of economics : the US3 oligopoly is influencing fares, the central condition of market economy, "atomicity of actors", is no more. Big players are influencing prices.

Case in point : I was just looking at direct international flights to the US for the next months. Without going into my O/D, someone please explain to me why does ITA Matrix / Googleflights list me the same fares for AA, DL or UA, not to mention that connections differ greatly ( DFW, ATL, IAD, JFK ). Unless Google throws in some lambda correction, if that is not price collusion, I don't know what is.

Just to say that in a sound economic environment, the mergers should not only be over, but the US3 should be investigated & demerged. Same applies to LH & LATAM, their respective market shares control their local market, which is against the law.

ummm..

https://www.ftc.gov/tips-advice/competi ... trust-laws

And your point is, ummm ?
The Sheman Act & other sound regulatory acts have been amended or unenforced to the effect of becoming pointless, which was Alan Greenspan's wish in his book "Anti-trust". You can see for yourself how the reduction of actors on commercial aviation, consumer goods & elsewhere have actually dimished the offer ( GM sold the same car under different names & lipstick to the pigs ) while also reducing consumer's choices. Admittedly fares are broadly lower than they were 20 years ago, but Transcon flights in Y nowadays cost as much as getting to Europe or Asia ( that's because there is indeed more competition & more airlines ), actually fares in Europe are way lower than in the US, twice or more in FSCs. Crossing the continent on LCCs between 29 -69 euros one way are common.

DL717 wrote:

Blerg wrote:

CobaltScar wrote:

Because they are good for business, shareholders, and employees.

So bring them on.

Consolidation is only good for shareholders who can get larger bonuses thanks to higher fares.

Wrong. It provides stability to not only the companies, but also the employees.

There's a right balance of M&A that is good for both companies and consumers. Too little and you have a loss making industry with no stability. Too much, and the customers get screwed by a monopoly.

So, halfway between both comments.

Gulfstream500 wrote:

Consolidation is not close to over. Actually, I'm expecting a ton of it in the next recession.

My bets:

Sun country: Bought by Southwest (or maybe Alaska if they don't buy B6), fleet is quite compatable.
Allegiant: Bought by Spirit (Not Frontier, why would they buy a fleet of aircraft that they are disposing, the A319).
JetBlue/Alaska/Hawaiian: I think they'll merge in a similar way as UA and CO. A B6, AS, and HA merger would make the fifth largest US airline, almost as big as United mainline by fleet size. Although, I believe that only two of the three will merge.

I agree with your analysis the most.

If there is a recession, IMO JetBlue and Alaska will suffer a lot (when compared with, let's say, Southwest). They lack geographical diversification and are focused in "millennial" regions that are economically overheated (California/West Coast for Alaska and Northeast/Florida for JetBlue). If there is another tech-bubble crash (just take a look at the latest IPOs and valuations of some tech companies) or real estate crash (same), places like the Bay Area will suffer a lot when all that fake wealth vanishes.

SCQ83 wrote:

Gulfstream500 wrote:

Consolidation is not close to over. Actually, I'm expecting a ton of it in the next recession.

My bets:

Sun country: Bought by Southwest (or maybe Alaska if they don't buy B6), fleet is quite compatable.
Allegiant: Bought by Spirit (Not Frontier, why would they buy a fleet of aircraft that they are disposing, the A319).
JetBlue/Alaska/Hawaiian: I think they'll merge in a similar way as UA and CO. A B6, AS, and HA merger would make the fifth largest US airline, almost as big as United mainline by fleet size. Although, I believe that only two of the three will merge.

I agree with your analysis the most.

If there is a recession, IMO JetBlue and Alaska will suffer a lot (when compared with, let's say, Southwest). They lack geographical diversification and are focused in "millennial" regions that are economically overheated (California/West Coast for Alaska and Northeast/Florida for JetBlue). If there is another tech-bubble crash (just take a look at the latest IPOs and valuations of some tech companies) or real estate crash (same), places like the Bay Area will suffer a lot when all that fake wealth vanishes.

California, sure, but I do not think I have ever seen anyone link Florida with millenials.

DocLightning wrote:

Blerg wrote:

What's this obsession with mergers and consolidation? It's as if some people on here won't be happy until the US is left with a single carrier.

It tends to happen. I have to say that this last set of mega-mergers didn't work out as horribly as I had imagined. NW (I think my distaste for that carrier is well-known) is gone and replaced by a far superior airline. UA is finally pulling its act together. AA...well...they have some...um...opportunities for improvement.

Then there was the AS/VS merger, which made no sense other than that AS had to buy VS or they'd be overrun by B6. That resulted in the loss of a really great carrier (VS) and AS has made no attempt to maintain that brand or what attracted people to it.

The space is constrained now. People keep talking about HA merging with someone, but HA seems hell-bent on being independent. Merging with AS makes little sense because it will simply make a national carrier with little to no presence in the most populous part of the nation (the East). NK could merge with F9, but that would eliminate LCC competition.

If anything, I could see WN buying AS but AS also seems hell-bent on being independent.

I agree that it's the regionals who will merge next, and because few passengers buy tickets directly from regionals or even know which regional they're flying, it won't be noticed.

I think AS buying VS really was strategic, it denied B6 what it really needed. They needed room for growth outside of the Northeast where its brand would work. LAX and SFO could have worked like JFK and BOS.

Now they are stuck.


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Antarius wrote:

California, sure, but I do not think I have ever seen anyone link Florida with millenials.

I agree Florida does not fit well in the mix with SFO, BOS, NYC or LAX. However a potential recession will be bad for FL in terms of real estate and tourism (less discretionary spending for holiday). If the tech/real estate bubble goes burst and has an impact in a place like BOS, I can see how fewer people will fly from there to FLL or MCO.

An interesting merger combination would be Southwest making another run at Frontier. A feature of this combination would be WN picking up a modern fleet of A32X aircraft, which would put pressure on Boeing to compensate them generously for the MAX fiasco, while ending their dependence on just one aircraft type. It would also eliminate one of the two large ULCC's as a competitor.

However, there would be pushback from the Denver market, where a combined WN & F9, along with UA would turn DEN into a duopoly-dominated major market. A merger would also involve the touchy process of combining senority lists. This process took quite a while for WN to sort out when they purchased FL. Another issue is that WN would have to pick up a large chunk of F9 capital debt incurred due to their ambitious re-fleeting program. Finally, the corporate cultures of the airlines are totally different when it comes to fares & in-flight service. To get Wall Street's buy-in, would a combined WN/F9 be expected to be more like WN, or more like F9?

I sure hope consolidation is over in the USA. In my opinion, the USA is already over consolidated which doesn't benefit anyone. Some of these mergers should never have been allowed.

DWC wrote:

When the US abolished the Sherman Act, the US ceased to be a free market economy. That is not an opinion, it's a definition of economics : the US3 oligopoly is influencing fares, the central condition of market economy, "atomicity of actors", is no more. Big players are influencing prices.

And yet I find UA selling DFW / ORD RT tickets for $98. Puttng things into perspective, I was buying $200 Saturday night stay RT tickets on that route in 1979.

Back to the topic : I expect some further consolidation after the next recession severely weakens a few of the players.

I am a gate agent currently but was considering becoming a flight attendant for JetBlue.

What are your opinions of the likelihood of them being involved in a m&a transaction. And if likely, with whom would it be most probable and how far out? Thanks in advance!

The airline industry:

Launch
Grow
Consolidate
Die

Repeat

AA-AS is one I could see passing DOJ if American were firing on all cylinders, but they're not. Perhaps AS as an acquiring carrier, if AA continues to have major problems? The combined carrier would be the largest in LAX, and second largest by a large margin in SFO and SJC. AA isn't even top 5 in SEA, that should avoid anti-trust issues there.

[quote="Max Q"]It seems like all the significant mergers
are done and I don’t see more on the horizon


A few maybes ?


Hawaiian / Alaska

Alaska / Jet Blue

Frontier / Spirit


And the big one would be United acquiring Jet Blue, this would at one stroke get UA
back into JFK, management has stated several times they would like to be back in that market and what a mistake it was to leave


A merged Jet Blue would also significantly beef up UA’s presence in the southeast US,
the only ‘weak area’ in their unparalleled
route system


Of course the trade offs are, as always
probably too high


With an acquisition of B6 United would completely monopolize the NY market
across EWR, LGA and JFK and regulators
would not allow it to proceed without significant divestitures at all three


And beefing up routes in Florida and the
SE would spark a fierce battle with AA
from their fortress hub in Miami


So I just don’t see that happening[
there would be NO appetite in the US to allow a United takeover of Jet Blue!! It would have to be a homegrown takeover of maybe a Jet Blue and Alaska, Or? jet Blue and a Frontier, But I'd bet GOOD Money Not United, American, or Delta.

American and Alaska. Seattle wouldn't be a problem since AA is so little in SEA.

Tailwinds wrote:

AA-AS is one I could see passing DOJ if American were firing on all cylinders, but they're not. Perhaps AS as an acquiring carrier, if AA continues to have major problems? The combined carrier would be the largest in LAX, and second largest by a large margin in SFO and SJC. AA isn't even top 5 in SEA, that should avoid anti-trust issues there.

AS take over AA? YGBSM! Really? They can't even merge US and AA!! What kind of "Cluster" would it BE to have AS run AA ?? Come on!!

STT757 wrote:

Max Q wrote:

It seems like all the significant mergers
are done and I don’t see more on the horizon


A few maybes ?


Hawaiian / Alaska

Alaska / Jet Blue

Frontier / Spirit


And the big one would be United acquiring Jet Blue, this would at one stroke get UA
back into JFK, management has stated several times they would like to be back in that market and what a mistake it was to leave


A merged Jet Blue would also significantly beef up UA’s presence in the southeast US,
the only ‘weak area’ in their unparalleled
route system


Of course the trade offs are, as always
probably too high


With an acquisition of B6 United would completely monopolize the NY market
across EWR, LGA and JFK and regulators
would not allow it to proceed without significant divestitures at all three


And beefing up routes in Florida and the
SE would spark a fierce battle with AA
from their fortress hub in Miami


So I just don’t see that happening

I think UA would be wise to steer clear of B6, I think NK would be a much better acquisition for UA. It gets them the opportunity to build upon NK's large operations in FLL and MCO. It also gives UA some opportunities for focus cities. While it doesn't get them back into Kennedy airport, it does gives them more LGA slots and valuable gates at airports like LAX. Also NK's workforce is smaller and younger than B6.


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Nobody would approve that merger if they had to unless B6 was already going down the Tubes! Aircraft wise? It really would be a good merger. I worked with Maintenance Controllers at United who came from Jet Blue. They were Sharp and well schooled. Their only lack was having to learn the
"United way" which United learned from USAir and Northwest who had Airbus airplanes before United.. Where we did a Lot of initial Troubleshooting with the Ground mechanics and ordered parts and Materials when needed. They had ground Techs to pass it off to. (which wasn't a bad Idea really)

Antarius wrote:

SCQ83 wrote:

Gulfstream500 wrote:

Consolidation is not close to over. Actually, I'm expecting a ton of it in the next recession.

My bets:

Sun country: Bought by Southwest (or maybe Alaska if they don't buy B6), fleet is quite compatable.
Allegiant: Bought by Spirit (Not Frontier, why would they buy a fleet of aircraft that they are disposing, the A319).
JetBlue/Alaska/Hawaiian: I think they'll merge in a similar way as UA and CO. A B6, AS, and HA merger would make the fifth largest US airline, almost as big as United mainline by fleet size. Although, I believe that only two of the three will merge.

I agree with your analysis the most.

If there is a recession, IMO JetBlue and Alaska will suffer a lot (when compared with, let's say, Southwest). They lack geographical diversification and are focused in "millennial" regions that are economically overheated (California/West Coast for Alaska and Northeast/Florida for JetBlue). If there is another tech-bubble crash (just take a look at the latest IPOs and valuations of some tech companies) or real estate crash (same), places like the Bay Area will suffer a lot when all that fake wealth vanishes.

California, sure, but I do not think I have ever seen anyone link Florida with millenials.

2017 data says:
Florida has the highest % of people aged 65+.
DC (or CO/AK/ND/CA if excluding DC; the 4 are tied) highest % aged 26-34 (aka Gen Y/Millennial)
https://www.kff.org/other/state-indicat ... on-by-age/

DL717 wrote:

For the first time since deregulation airlines are actually making money. That’s far from chaos. On the contrary, it represents order.

Aye, but it's taken 40 years to get to this relative stability, and honestly, we're only here because the DOJ won't let the big 4 merge any further.

DL717 wrote:

bigb wrote:

The next round of consolidations are going to be at the regional level. There are a abundance of regional carriers whose contracts are coming up for renewal. As those contracts come up, they will either, be renewed, or not be renewed which will lead to said regional losing its flying. As a regional lose it flying, it will be force to shrink, shutdown, or merge with someone, or figure out a way to gain replacement flying. See Compass and GoJet for this example.

This. The big winner will be SkyWest unless the economy wrecks Alaska Airlines, they are doing about 15% of Alaska’s flying and that could hurt, but still leave them the biggest player. In alternate, they could absorb Horizon if Alaska is hurting and needs some cash which would wind up being a bonus. SkyWest and Republic will be the last man standing so to speak. SkyWest gobbling up the UA/DL regionals and Republic the AA regionals.

First off, the notion that the wholly owneds would disappear is crazy. Their flying is done 100% at cost and the internal synergies that have occurred already with those carriers are highly unlikely to ever be able to be achieved with an outside party.

Yes AX, G7 and CP are likely to go the way of the dodo and YV's flying will likely be absorbed by someone else (I believe it will be OO for AA, YX for UA) but with their own frames. That'll still leave you with OO, YX, OH, PT, MQ, EV, QX & 9E moving forward which is a pretty good setup that will still keep the market competitive but allow the carriers to better stand on their own.