KlimaBXsst
Posts: 372
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2019 4:14 pm

Re: Is consolidation over in the US ?

Tue Sep 03, 2019 4:17 pm

Is consolidation over in the US?

Conventional type mergers are probably going to be few and far between.
But as mentioned, the industry is dynamic.

For example the proposed MOXY management startup team could consolidate and acquire Compass Airlines to get their MOXY operation going.

In so doing, guaranteeing some operational jobs with those airliners already flying for AA and such to reassure investors with numbers, as they build their newly branded MOXY operation with an experienced staff they can train and assimilate the MOXY way.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
KlimaBXsst
Posts: 372
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2019 4:14 pm

Re: Is consolidation over in the US ?

Tue Sep 03, 2019 4:24 pm

In regards to a number 6 acquisition by AS... as has been the ongoing speculation here...
I really do not feel B6 would be the first “mainline” on their target for the consolidation wet dream many seem to have on here.

But heck what does one really know or not know.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
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spinotter
Posts: 603
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Re: Is consolidation over in the US ?

Tue Sep 03, 2019 5:45 pm

KlimaBXsst wrote:
In regards to a number 6 acquisition by AS... as has been the ongoing speculation here...
I really do not feel B6 would be the first “mainline” on their target for the consolidation wet dream many seem to have on here.

But heck what does one really know or not know.


But if not B6, who else would AS target? SY? Frontier or Spirit? Not Allegiant, IMHO? Who else?
 
dca1
Posts: 3
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Re: Is consolidation over in the US ?

Tue Sep 03, 2019 6:55 pm

spinotter wrote:
KlimaBXsst wrote:
In regards to a number 6 acquisition by AS... as has been the ongoing speculation here...
I really do not feel B6 would be the first “mainline” on their target for the consolidation wet dream many seem to have on here.

But heck what does one really know or not know.


But if not B6, who else would AS target? SY? Frontier or Spirit? Not Allegiant, IMHO? Who else?



Possibly HA?
 
KlimaBXsst
Posts: 372
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2019 4:14 pm

Re: Is consolidation over in the US ?

Tue Sep 03, 2019 7:42 pm

Oh, did I say “mainline?” Oh well mainline - regional there seems to be a lot of confusion there. Always figured to be a mainline airline you must have a regional non-mainline entity that mainline employees did not work at.

There seems to be a lot of confusion on that subject and not to digress or go off topic I just think there will be consolidation because the airline industry is a dynamic industry, but do not necessarily believe the big 6 JetBlue, Alaska, or Hawaiian would be involved in any of them.

These just may change in order of rank of the big 7 periodically.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
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NameOmitted
Posts: 681
Joined: Sun Oct 23, 2016 7:59 pm

Re: Is consolidation over in the US ?

Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:16 pm

Has there been a case where one major has sold its regional flying contract to another?

Say airline A hit its scope maximum in region 1, but wanted more lift in region 2, so sells its contract with the regional partner 1 to airline B?
 
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spinotter
Posts: 603
Joined: Wed May 27, 2015 1:37 am

Re: Is consolidation over in the US ?

Tue Sep 03, 2019 11:13 pm

KlimaBXsst wrote:
Oh, did I say “mainline?” Oh well mainline - regional there seems to be a lot of confusion there. Always figured to be a mainline airline you must have a regional non-mainline entity that mainline employees did not work at.

There seems to be a lot of confusion on that subject and not to digress or go off topic I just think there will be consolidation because the airline industry is a dynamic industry, but do not necessarily believe the big 6 JetBlue, Alaska, or Hawaiian would be involved in any of them.

These just may change in order of rank of the big 7 periodically.


Big seven - US7 - who is that?

AA
DL
UA
WN
B6
AS
HA

Am I right? No ULCC?
 
hiflyeras
Posts: 2050
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 6:48 pm

Re: Is consolidation over in the US ?

Tue Sep 03, 2019 11:38 pm

Wrong order...and HA is way down the list.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_l ... th_America

AA
DL
WN
UA
AS
B6
NK
F9
G4
HA
 
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lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 18146
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Re: Is consolidation over in the US ?

Wed Sep 04, 2019 12:28 am

Facinating premise.

The next stage is cross boarder mergers (Indigo partners) than true mergers.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
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lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 18146
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Is consolidation over in the US ?

Wed Sep 04, 2019 12:29 am

hiflyeras wrote:
Wrong order...and HA is way down the list.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_l ... th_America

AA
DL
WN
UA
AS
B6
NK
F9
G4
HA

Why not order by profit? :duck:
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
flyby519
Posts: 1431
Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2007 3:31 am

Re: Is consolidation over in the US ?

Wed Sep 04, 2019 1:13 am

lightsaber wrote:
Facinating premise.

The next stage is cross boarder mergers (Indigo partners) than true mergers.

Lightsaber


Would a cross border merger not be a true merger? I suppose something like AF-KLM isn't a true merger, and dont really see the need for that in the next wave of consolidation. How long til someone buys a Brazilian airline for instance (100% foreign ownership and cabotage allowed) and just brands it as their own instead of keeping separate brands/certificates/employees?
 
NWADTWE16
Posts: 674
Joined: Fri Jun 29, 2012 5:12 am

Re: Is consolidation over in the US ?

Wed Sep 04, 2019 2:12 am

are you all mental? mergers have mostly been sold as to benefit customers but just to eliminate competition this past few years. There is no way United is buying B6 or would be allowed to buy B6. Why in hell would you want them to anyway. UNited is barely making progress on their own service wise, and if this happened they would not run dual hubs at EWR & JFK.
Same with Frontier and Spirit, they do compliment each other, but they are needed to counter that lower tier, and keep it competitive. Southwest should be banned from buying anyone every again after what they did to AirTran.
If SunCountry becomes successful LCC which is appears they are headed that way, perhaps I could see an F9/SY merger, but again, we need competition at all levels, and those 3 plus G4 keep the market there good for all.

The only merger, and I wish this wouldn't happen, but the only merger that makes sense is B6+AS and hell throw HA in there as well. That would create a beast to reach the Majors level, or close. However who would lead, B6 mgmt. is like scared cats, AS mgmt., I don't even know what to say. Maybe the strange thing there would be a new JetBlue International under Hawaiians CEO?
I haven't been everywhere, but it's on my list!
 
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smithbs
Posts: 316
Joined: Wed May 17, 2017 6:09 pm

Re: Is consolidation over in the US ?

Wed Sep 04, 2019 6:30 pm

smithbs wrote:
strfyr51 wrote:
Tailwinds wrote:
AA-AS is one I could see passing DOJ if American were firing on all cylinders, but they're not. Perhaps AS as an acquiring carrier, if AA continues to have major problems? The combined carrier would be the largest in LAX, and second largest by a large margin in SFO and SJC. AA isn't even top 5 in SEA, that should avoid anti-trust issues there.

AS take over AA? YGBSM! Really? They can't even merge US and AA!! What kind of "Cluster" would it BE to have AS run AA ?? Come on!!


Mergers can be strange things. Even though I'd have to run to the bathroom and vomit if AS and AA hooked up, I could see it happening if:
a). AA was out of cash
b). AS had cash and was drunk
Mergers have been done where either the junior or senior partner was broke and looking for someone vulnerable and holding cash, but it depends on circumstances and who can be talked into what. Case in point: MDD and Boeing. So unfortunately, it could work where AA has run out of cash and says to AS "hey, buy us" when they really mean "give us your cash" and the AS board was deep enough into a fifth of scotch to think they'd be calling the shots once the check clears.

History has great examples of the end-game of so many airlines. So many ways to die - Ansett style, Pan Am style, NW style...

Unfortunately for a.net, it doesn't really depend on fleet commonality.


I finally remembered the merger scenario that was in the back of my mind regarding the AA-AS scenario: US Airways and America West.
 
strfyr51
Posts: 3937
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: Is consolidation over in the US ?

Thu Sep 05, 2019 6:58 pm

flyby519 wrote:
BMWdrvr75 wrote:
I’m just wondering why everyone thinks Southwest is out of the realm of possibility for merging/purchasing JetBlue there’s been a lot of speculation of a Southwest and Hawaiian marriage at Southwest in recent months. With Max debacle and Southwest not growing for the last year, Canceling upgrade classes, canceling the flight attendant new hire classes, and having 84 Max’s parked in Victorville maybe the company is not completely married to a 737 anymore and is looking for a little bit diversity... This would open JFK slots maybe look at doing some trans Atlantic flying as well....Just a question please do not beat me up....


It would be a gigantic change in strategy and business model for WN. Multi-class a/c, transcons, redeye flying, 190s/220s, etc. I think it would be a bad fit in terms of business models, but do think you have some good points about WN's reliance on the 737. Simplification has been a cost saving benefit for them for decades, but putting all your eggs in 1 basket isn't always a great choice. I'm not sure if it is enough of a loss to make the jump into 2 fleet types. Network-wise it would be nice for WN to have better penetration in the NE.

I agree, It might be a MAJOR culture change at WN to merge as I think though that they've gone about as far s they can go with No night flying now that they're flying to Hawaii. To make money there they'll have to make connections to and from the mainland to get people where they're going, On their Time and no overnight flying is going to do it.
 
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lydh
Posts: 69
Joined: Thu Aug 04, 2016 6:49 pm

Re: Is consolidation over in the US ?

Fri Sep 06, 2019 12:32 am

Blerg wrote:
What's this obsession with mergers and consolidation? It's as if some people on here won't be happy until the US is left with a single carrier.


In general, I would say most posters here seem to stan whatever perspective or outcome would benefit the carriers or shareholders, rather than passengers. It's truly puzzling, since I don't believe that anyone posting on A.net is an airline CEO or board member.
 
silentbob
Posts: 1578
Joined: Tue Aug 15, 2006 1:26 pm

Re: Is consolidation over in the US ?

Fri Sep 06, 2019 12:48 am

My two cents:
No consolidation involving the big 4; AA, DL, UA, WN as they are all on relatively equal footing. You may see an asset acquisition, but there's no real consolidation option worth the cost unless it eliminates competition and that won't be permitted.

Very real likelihood of consolidation in the low fare carrier segment. I can't predict if it will be a merger of equals or an acquisition, it depends on the next recession. Since WN has grown into a full network carrier (with prices to match more often than not) I think there is room for someone like NK to grow their national presence. The question is if they will do it organically or via some type of consolidation.

Regionally, I'd call it attrition more than anything else. Aircraft will be shuffled around but I don't think you'll see many certificates change hands. It will be interesting to see how much the majors will encourage/allow, as they don't want to end up in a situation like Delta/Comair or AA/Eagle again where a single regional has too much leverage.
 
KlimaBXsst
Posts: 372
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2019 4:14 pm

Re: Is consolidation over in the US ?

Thu Sep 19, 2019 3:36 pm

KlimaBXsst wrote:
Is consolidation over in the US?

Conventional type mergers are probably going to be few and far between.
But as mentioned, the industry is dynamic.

For example the proposed MOXY management startup team could consolidate and acquire Compass Airlines to get their MOXY operation going.

In so doing, guaranteeing some operational jobs with those airliners already flying for AA and such to reassure investors with numbers, as they build their newly branded MOXY operation with an experienced staff they can train and assimilate the MOXY way.


The benefits of an experienced staff should be reiterated when beginning a startup. Of course there will be those bad apple employees that will slip through the cracks that will have to be dealt with straight away.

Sometimes employees become set in their bad ways from their previous carrier, and brand change resistance becomes their cause to exist and create some temporary havoc until they are fired or assimilated.

So YES merger and acquisitions will continue as new start ups take on existing certificates in some instances.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
vadodara
Posts: 969
Joined: Mon Feb 20, 2017 7:45 pm

Re: Is consolidation over in the US ?

Fri Sep 20, 2019 3:25 pm

B6 already is fairly penetrated over the E Coast, almost maps the old Eastern. Their push to acquire W Coast did not pan out and so may be out of options.

AS may be able to pick some E Coast slots by some opportunistic merger/take-over. Their (and Virgins) DAL push did not quite pan since a few LGA/DCA slots did not offer any unique advantage. Perhaps one of the regionals may make more sense here.

Neither of Spirit or Frontier seem to be well managed to make any predictions other than they may fail at some point.

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