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PacoMartin
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How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 5:07 am

This are the mainland airports served by Hawaiian Airlines at present. Obviously BOS and JFK must be serviced by A330s.

But Hawaiian has a fleet of A321 neos, while Southwest has only B737s. So far Southwest has only started flying from the three nearest airports (SMF, SJC, OAK) since it doesn't have any MAX jets.

Miles from HNL
5095 BOS Boston [General Edward Lawrence Logan Intl] MA
4983 JFK New York [John F Kennedy Intl] NY
.
2917 PHX Phoenix [Phoenix Sky Harbor Intl] AZ
2762 LAS Las Vegas [McCarran Intl] NV
2677 SEA Seattle [Seattle-Tacoma Intl] WA
2614 SAN San Diego [Intl] CA
2603 PDX Portland [Intl] OR
2569 LGB Long Beach [Long Beach Airport (Daugherty Field)] CA
2556 LAX Los Angeles [Intl] CA
2462 SMF Sacramento [Intl] CA
2417 SJC San José [Norman Y. Mineta San José Intl] CA
2409 OAK Oakland [Metropolitan Oakland Intl] CA

Hawaiian could react to competition by expanding to cities further than Phoenix that Southwest can't reach with the MAX

Miles from HNL
2994 SLC
3233 ABQ
3364 DEN
3795 DAL

But that will put them in competition with Delta or United. In an ironic twist if the A321neos can comfortably fly to DAL airport, Hawaiian could confront Southwest at their home base.
 
PhilMcCrackin
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 5:20 am

I'm pretty sure HA has stated the NEOs are mostly for opening routes from existing mainland cities to the secondary islands, not to go on a opening new mainland cities spree.
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 6:16 am

PhilMcCrackin wrote:
I'm pretty sure HA has stated the NEOs are mostly for opening routes from existing mainland cities to the secondary islands, not to go on a opening new mainland cities spree.


That absolutely was their stated goal when they ordered the A321neo in the 2012-2013 time frame. It was also what they were doing earlier this year.

What I am asking is will they change that goal now that they have serious competition?
 
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chepos
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 6:31 am

PacoMartin wrote:
This are the mainland airports served by Hawaiian Airlines at present. Obviously BOS and JFK must be serviced by A330s.

But Hawaiian has a fleet of A321 neos, while Southwest has only B737s. So far Southwest has only started flying from the three nearest airports (SMF, SJC, OAK) since it doesn't have any MAX jets.

Miles from HNL
5095 BOS Boston [General Edward Lawrence Logan Intl] MA
4983 JFK New York [John F Kennedy Intl] NY
.
2917 PHX Phoenix [Phoenix Sky Harbor Intl] AZ
2762 LAS Las Vegas [McCarran Intl] NV
2677 SEA Seattle [Seattle-Tacoma Intl] WA
2614 SAN San Diego [Intl] CA
2603 PDX Portland [Intl] OR
2569 LGB Long Beach [Long Beach Airport (Daugherty Field)] CA
2556 LAX Los Angeles [Intl] CA
2462 SMF Sacramento [Intl] CA
2417 SJC San José [Norman Y. Mineta San José Intl] CA
2409 OAK Oakland [Metropolitan Oakland Intl] CA

Hawaiian could react to competition by expanding to cities further than Phoenix that Southwest can't reach with the MAX

Miles from HNL
2994 SLC
3233 ABQ
3364 DEN
3795 DAL

But that will put them in competition with Delta or United. In an ironic twist if the A321neos can comfortably fly to DAL airport, Hawaiian could confront Southwest at their home base.


HA already competes with DL and UA on a couple of routes.


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SierraPacific
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 6:58 am

I've always personally believed that WN's entry to the market was going to kill Alaska's Hawaii business rather than Hawaiian. Hawaiian has the Hawaiian state government's full support, brand loyalty, and a way larger network from the islands than Southwest could ever muster while Alaska is in a strange place with direct competition on almost all of their routes along with flying the same equipment and a similar in-flight experience as WN.

The only real threat WN poses to HA is the interisland market but even then WN will never match HA in that arena.
 
Max Q
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 7:18 am

I hope you’re right, Hawaiian is a great airline and the aviation world gets a lot more boring and bland the further inroads Southwest makes into it
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.


Guns and the love of them by a loud minority are a malignant and deadly cancer inflicted on American society
 
Busyboy2
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 7:22 am

SierraPacific wrote:
I've always personally believed that WN's entry to the market was going to kill Alaska's Hawaii business rather than Hawaiian. Hawaiian has the Hawaiian state government's full support, brand loyalty, and a way larger network from the islands than Southwest could ever muster while Alaska is in a strange place with direct competition on almost all of their routes along with flying the same equipment and a similar in-flight experience as WN.

The only real threat WN poses to HA is the interisland market but even then WN will never match HA in that arena.


Really? No. You don't ACTUALLY believe that do you? Southwest has nearly 10 times the annual revenue as Hawaiian ($2.8B vs. $22B) and 10 times the number of employees. HA has 58 airplanes. Southwest has 730 or so. And Southwest will add about 100 max8's by next summer. SWA could put so much capacity on inter island you wouldn't believe it. And according to the locals, their is no brand loyalty. The only thing that matters is the cost. Full stop.
 
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SierraPacific
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 7:33 am

Busyboy2 wrote:
SierraPacific wrote:
I've always personally believed that WN's entry to the market was going to kill Alaska's Hawaii business rather than Hawaiian. Hawaiian has the Hawaiian state government's full support, brand loyalty, and a way larger network from the islands than Southwest could ever muster while Alaska is in a strange place with direct competition on almost all of their routes along with flying the same equipment and a similar in-flight experience as WN.

The only real threat WN poses to HA is the interisland market but even then WN will never match HA in that arena.


Really? No. You don't ACTUALLY believe that do you? Southwest has nearly 10 times the annual revenue as Hawaiian ($2.8B vs. $22B) and 10 times the number of employees. HA has 58 airplanes. Southwest has 730 or so. And Southwest will add about 100 max8's by next summer. SWA could put so much capacity on inter island you wouldn't believe it. And according to the locals, their is no brand loyalty. The only thing that matters is the cost. Full stop.


You are missing a key part of this. Hawaiian is one of the main employers in the state of Hawaii (Actually 2nd largest). The Hawaiian state government is not going to let some Haole airline from Dallas destroy a company that employees 7k people on the islands. It doesn't matter what Southwest has, they will never be able to take over the Hawaiian market because the moment that HA calls the state government saying they have to cut jobs Southwest will be promptly dealt with.

Hawaiian consumers love choice but when the second largest employer in the state starts feeling the heat from a mainland company, they will fall in line and protect their own. Hawaii is its own world and is unlike anything WN has ever seen.
 
BlatantEcho
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 7:44 am

^^^

What exactly could the state government do to regulate what airlines were successful or not?
Are you suggesting they could give preferential treatment to one airline and discriminate against another US airline?
 
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SierraPacific
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 8:05 am

BlatantEcho wrote:
^^^

What exactly could the state government do to regulate what airlines were successful or not?
Are you suggesting they could give preferential treatment to one airline and discriminate against another US airline?


Doesn't the state allocate gates and or build extensions onto terminals? If Southwest was going to try and ramp-up to beat Hawaiian, they would need a ton of gates at each Hawaiian airport which is the domain of the state DOT controlled by the Hawaiian state legislature. If Southwest doesn't get more gates then they could never take on Hawaiian and compete with the level of frequency that is required in the market. Hawaiian is a Hawaiian airline while Southwest is a mainland airline, it seems very strange from an outsiders point of view but Hawaii will never lose the flagship carrier that they have had since 1929 and is one of the main economic drivers to the Hawaiian economy that is not service or tourism-based.

The inter-island operation that Hawaiian runs is actually pretty amazing with over 25 flights a day between just Honolulu and Maui so that would take an insane amount of metal to even come close to along with a Pilot and F/A base for Southwest.
 
VolvoBus
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 8:15 am

Why do we have quarterly threads on 'What will HA replace their B717's with ?'?

Obviously,the answer is the B737MAX !
 
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enilria
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:34 am

PacoMartin wrote:
This are the mainland airports served by Hawaiian Airlines at present. Obviously BOS and JFK must be serviced by A330s.

But Hawaiian has a fleet of A321 neos, while Southwest has only B737s. So far Southwest has only started flying from the three nearest airports (SMF, SJC, OAK) since it doesn't have any MAX jets.

Miles from HNL
5095 BOS Boston [General Edward Lawrence Logan Intl] MA
4983 JFK New York [John F Kennedy Intl] NY
.
2917 PHX Phoenix [Phoenix Sky Harbor Intl] AZ
2762 LAS Las Vegas [McCarran Intl] NV
2677 SEA Seattle [Seattle-Tacoma Intl] WA
2614 SAN San Diego [Intl] CA
2603 PDX Portland [Intl] OR
2569 LGB Long Beach [Long Beach Airport (Daugherty Field)] CA
2556 LAX Los Angeles [Intl] CA
2462 SMF Sacramento [Intl] CA
2417 SJC San José [Norman Y. Mineta San José Intl] CA
2409 OAK Oakland [Metropolitan Oakland Intl] CA

Hawaiian could react to competition by expanding to cities further than Phoenix that Southwest can't reach with the MAX

Miles from HNL
2994 SLC
3233 ABQ
3364 DEN
3795 DAL

But that will put them in competition with Delta or United. In an ironic twist if the A321neos can comfortably fly to DAL airport, Hawaiian could confront Southwest at their home base.

They won’t fly to DAL.

They said they will begin hubbing OGG and there is talk of non-Hawaiian routes.
 
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eta unknown
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 12:19 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
What I am asking is will they change that goal now that they have serious competition?


A newbie entrant isn't serious competition.. HA has been competing with AA UA DL (and formerly NW CO) for years along with several mainland charter flights. And as correctly explained in many posts above, the local govt. will protect HA if things get out of hand- things don't necessarily work differently in Hawaii, but the response may seem more open/brazen than in other markets.
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 12:34 pm

Perhaps it would help if we looked at hard examples for the three cities where Southwest began service (closest ones to HNL)
2462 mi SMF Sacramento [Intl] CA
2417 mi SJC San José [Norman Y. Mineta San José Intl] CA
2409 mi OAK Oakland [Metropolitan Oakland Intl] CA

In February 2019 Hawaiian had
A330 service from HNL daily to Sacramento (SMF) and weekly to San Jose (SJC)
A321 service from HNL daily to Oakland (OAK) and daily to San Jose (SJC) except once a week when A330 used
A321 service from OGG daily to Oakland (OAK) and daily to San Jose (SJC)
A321 service from LIH daily to Oakland (OAK)

Now it may be that Hawaiian Airlines has already framed their response to the expected Southwest competition. In April they began service to Boston. Perhaps all HA intends to do is to downscale the A330 flights to Sacramento and replace them with A321 flights (reduction by 89 seats) and use the A330s in flying to Boston.

Hawaiian also has 7 additional daily A330 flights to California (3 HNL-LAX, 1 HNL-SFO, 1 HNL-SAN) and (1 OGG-LAX and 1 OGG-SFO). As Southwest moves into these cities perhaps Hawaiian will downsize these routes to smaller A321 jets and explore more East Coast, Texas or Chicago cities as options with the A330s.

SierraPacific wrote:
I've always personally believed that WN's entry to the market was going to kill Alaska's Hawaii business rather than Hawaiian.


Perhaps you are correct. Perhaps there will be no reduction in service by HA, not even replacing A330s with A321s.

eta unknown wrote:
And as correctly explained in many posts above, the local govt. will protect HA if things get out of hand- things don't necessarily work differently in Hawaii, but the response may seem more open/brazen than in other markets.


I wasn't suggesting that HA was in jeopardy of shutting down operations, only that they may try to use the longer ranges of the A321 and A330s to seek out some new markets beyond the range of Southwest's MAX-8s.
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 1:52 pm

SierraPacific wrote:
The Hawaiian state government is not going to let some Haole airline from Dallas destroy a company that employees 7k people on the islands. It doesn't matter what Southwest has, they will never be able to take over the Hawaiian market because the moment that HA calls the state government saying they have to cut jobs Southwest will be promptly dealt with.


You sound like an old movie. "This island's not big enough for the two of us, you see!"

Hawaiian Airlines has 24 fairly new A330s (averaging 6.3 years) and they will acquire at least 10 Dreamliners which will open up Europe. Southwest is not going to endanger the airlines international business.

Southwest can only compete with the routes flown by the 18 A321s and the 20B717s. Plus the real losers might be Alaska Air and Sun Country Airlines and the legacy carriers.

If the market from Western CONUS to Hawaii gets saturated, Hawaiian Airlines may bring it's A330s to DFW, IAH, ORD, IAD, EWR, ATL and compete with the legacy carriers.
 
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spinotter
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 4:34 pm

SierraPacific wrote:
Busyboy2 wrote:
SierraPacific wrote:
I've always personally believed that WN's entry to the market was going to kill Alaska's Hawaii business rather than Hawaiian. Hawaiian has the Hawaiian state government's full support, brand loyalty, and a way larger network from the islands than Southwest could ever muster while Alaska is in a strange place with direct competition on almost all of their routes along with flying the same equipment and a similar in-flight experience as WN.

The only real threat WN poses to HA is the interisland market but even then WN will never match HA in that arena.


Really? No. You don't ACTUALLY believe that do you? Southwest has nearly 10 times the annual revenue as Hawaiian ($2.8B vs. $22B) and 10 times the number of employees. HA has 58 airplanes. Southwest has 730 or so. And Southwest will add about 100 max8's by next summer. SWA could put so much capacity on inter island you wouldn't believe it. And according to the locals, their is no brand loyalty. The only thing that matters is the cost. Full stop.


You are missing a key part of this. Hawaiian is one of the main employers in the state of Hawaii (Actually 2nd largest). The Hawaiian state government is not going to let some Haole airline from Dallas destroy a company that employees 7k people on the islands. It doesn't matter what Southwest has, they will never be able to take over the Hawaiian market because the moment that HA calls the state government saying they have to cut jobs Southwest will be promptly dealt with.

Hawaiian consumers love choice but when the second largest employer in the state starts feeling the heat from a mainland company, they will fall in line and protect their own. Hawaii is its own world and is unlike anything WN has ever seen.


And how exactly will Southwest be promptly dealt with, in accordance with the law?
 
maps4ltd
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 4:50 pm

Hawaiian still has the lucrative Japan markets, the South Pacific, unrivaled frequency, connections and interlining with others, bag fees on interisland (albeit reduced by simply signing up for the loyalty program, which is nice), meals/chargers/screens on most mainland runs , business and first class, 717s that can do supershort interisland turns and fly 12x segments a day, and even sometimes a fare premium. HA will be fine; maybe a bit humbled by interisland competition, but fine. If anyone should be worried here, it's AS.
Delta Gold Medallion and Southwest A-List
 
WN732
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 5:13 pm

SierraPacific wrote:
BlatantEcho wrote:
^^^

What exactly could the state government do to regulate what airlines were successful or not?
Are you suggesting they could give preferential treatment to one airline and discriminate against another US airline?


Doesn't the state allocate gates and or build extensions onto terminals? If Southwest was going to try and ramp-up to beat Hawaiian, they would need a ton of gates at each Hawaiian airport which is the domain of the state DOT controlled by the Hawaiian state legislature. If Southwest doesn't get more gates then they could never take on Hawaiian and compete with the level of frequency that is required in the market. Hawaiian is a Hawaiian airline while Southwest is a mainland airline, it seems very strange from an outsiders point of view but Hawaii will never lose the flagship carrier that they have had since 1929 and is one of the main economic drivers to the Hawaiian economy that is not service or tourism-based.

The inter-island operation that Hawaiian runs is actually pretty amazing with over 25 flights a day between just Honolulu and Maui so that would take an insane amount of metal to even come close to along with a Pilot and F/A base for Southwest.


They operate 4 gates out of HNL. They can do up to 48 flights per day alone out of the airport if they really tried. Remember that the 737-800's they fly also equate to about 1.5 717's from HA. They wouldn't need to run 25 flights to match the same seats going back and forth. Are they trying to match Hawaiian's capacity? Not really, but a nice slice of the pie would be great for them. And to answer your post above, there's nothing the Hawaiian government can do to hinder the growth of Southwest. If it was such a big deal for them they would have stopped Go! and bailed out Aloha before they went under. Southwest doesn't answer to the Hawaiian government and there's really nothing they can do, and why would they try to hinder more tourists coming by stopping an airline with massive feed?
 
77H
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 5:28 pm

SierraPacific wrote:
BlatantEcho wrote:
^^^

What exactly could the state government do to regulate what airlines were successful or not?
Are you suggesting they could give preferential treatment to one airline and discriminate against another US airline?


Doesn't the state allocate gates and or build extensions onto terminals? If Southwest was going to try and ramp-up to beat Hawaiian, they would need a ton of gates at each Hawaiian airport which is the domain of the state DOT controlled by the Hawaiian state legislature. If Southwest doesn't get more gates then they could never take on Hawaiian and compete with the level of frequency that is required in the market. Hawaiian is a Hawaiian airline while Southwest is a mainland airline, it seems very strange from an outsiders point of view but Hawaii will never lose the flagship carrier that they have had since 1929 and is one of the main economic drivers to the Hawaiian economy that is not service or tourism-based.

The inter-island operation that Hawaiian runs is actually pretty amazing with over 25 flights a day between just Honolulu and Maui so that would take an insane amount of metal to even come close to along with a Pilot and F/A base for Southwest.


Agree with this 100%. Anyone who thinks otherwise has had little exposure to the local government. I’ve seen 3 articles in the last week detailing the impact that HA has on the economy, employment and way of life.

And when it comes to employment, it needs to be considered that we’re talking about a decent number of white collar jobs with salaries to match in a state with an extremely high cost of living. WN would never be able to provide that.

Ticket prices at WN have already increased from what I’ve seen anecdotally while looking for flights to OGG and KOA. I’ve also noticed that outside of WN’s schedule, HA can still command prices to the tune of $125-$200 for a one-way. Seen this with my own eyes in the last week.

77H
 
77H
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 5:34 pm

WN732 wrote:
SierraPacific wrote:
BlatantEcho wrote:
^^^

What exactly could the state government do to regulate what airlines were successful or not?
Are you suggesting they could give preferential treatment to one airline and discriminate against another US airline?


Doesn't the state allocate gates and or build extensions onto terminals? If Southwest was going to try and ramp-up to beat Hawaiian, they would need a ton of gates at each Hawaiian airport which is the domain of the state DOT controlled by the Hawaiian state legislature. If Southwest doesn't get more gates then they could never take on Hawaiian and compete with the level of frequency that is required in the market. Hawaiian is a Hawaiian airline while Southwest is a mainland airline, it seems very strange from an outsiders point of view but Hawaii will never lose the flagship carrier that they have had since 1929 and is one of the main economic drivers to the Hawaiian economy that is not service or tourism-based.

The inter-island operation that Hawaiian runs is actually pretty amazing with over 25 flights a day between just Honolulu and Maui so that would take an insane amount of metal to even come close to along with a Pilot and F/A base for Southwest.


They operate 4 gates out of HNL. They can do up to 48 flights per day alone out of the airport if they really tried. Remember that the 737-800's they fly also equate to about 1.5 717's from HA. They wouldn't need to run 25 flights to match the same seats going back and forth. Are they trying to match Hawaiian's capacity? Not really, but a nice slice of the pie would be great for them. And to answer your post above, there's nothing the Hawaiian government can do to hinder the growth of Southwest. If it was such a big deal for them they would have stopped Go! and bailed out Aloha before they went under. Southwest doesn't answer to the Hawaiian government and there's really nothing they can do, and why would they try to hinder more tourists coming by stopping an airline with massive feed?


Except you’re forgetting the HI Government did look into bailing out AQ but ran out of time. Second, there are active calls to limit tourism throughout the state. The Hawaii Tourism Authority, the semi-governmental agency charged with marketing Hawaii as a tourist destination has, by and large changed their strategy from growth to sustainability.


77H
 
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SierraPacific
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 6:19 pm

spinotter wrote:
SierraPacific wrote:
Busyboy2 wrote:

Really? No. You don't ACTUALLY believe that do you? Southwest has nearly 10 times the annual revenue as Hawaiian ($2.8B vs. $22B) and 10 times the number of employees. HA has 58 airplanes. Southwest has 730 or so. And Southwest will add about 100 max8's by next summer. SWA could put so much capacity on inter island you wouldn't believe it. And according to the locals, their is no brand loyalty. The only thing that matters is the cost. Full stop.


You are missing a key part of this. Hawaiian is one of the main employers in the state of Hawaii (Actually 2nd largest). The Hawaiian state government is not going to let some Haole airline from Dallas destroy a company that employees 7k people on the islands. It doesn't matter what Southwest has, they will never be able to take over the Hawaiian market because the moment that HA calls the state government saying they have to cut jobs Southwest will be promptly dealt with.

Hawaiian consumers love choice but when the second largest employer in the state starts feeling the heat from a mainland company, they will fall in line and protect their own. Hawaii is its own world and is unlike anything WN has ever seen.


And how exactly will Southwest be promptly dealt with, in accordance with the law?


They will not be allowed to grow via no new terminals or gates and will remain in their niche of 5-7 flights a day while Hawaiian flies 20-30 flights a day interisland. I don't doubt that Southwest can make money in Hawaii but it will never come at the expense of Hawaiian but rather another mainland carrier.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 6:22 pm

Once the MAX is ungrounded WN will finish out it's Hawaii build up.
I think you will see a few more additions like HNL/OGG/KOA/LIH-SAN. Also HNL/OGG-ONT. Talk of weekend only HNL-LGB.
Possible a HNL/OGG/KOA-PDX
Finally dude lack of gate issues WN will add a hand full of Hawaii Redeye to HNL/OGG/KOA-LAX/LAS/PHX/DEN.
Inter island don't see more than 5 Daily flights between HNL-OGG/LIH/KOA/ITO.

Hawaiian size and gate capacity will be able to fend off WN for many many years. WN will never be another Aloha on inter island.

That's my take.
Flyguy
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
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spinotter
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 6:24 pm

SierraPacific wrote:
spinotter wrote:
SierraPacific wrote:

You are missing a key part of this. Hawaiian is one of the main employers in the state of Hawaii (Actually 2nd largest). The Hawaiian state government is not going to let some Haole airline from Dallas destroy a company that employees 7k people on the islands. It doesn't matter what Southwest has, they will never be able to take over the Hawaiian market because the moment that HA calls the state government saying they have to cut jobs Southwest will be promptly dealt with.

Hawaiian consumers love choice but when the second largest employer in the state starts feeling the heat from a mainland company, they will fall in line and protect their own. Hawaii is its own world and is unlike anything WN has ever seen.


And how exactly will Southwest be promptly dealt with, in accordance with the law?


They will not be allowed to grow via no new terminals or gates and will remain in their niche of 5-7 flights a day while Hawaiian flies 20-30 flights a day interisland. I don't doubt that Southwest can make money in Hawaii but it will never come at the expense of Hawaiian but rather another mainland carrier.


Interesting strategy. Can WN use your speculations as grounds for a lawsuit aganst Hawaiian Airports Unlimited?
 
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Veigar
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 6:31 pm

This sounds like a form of the "Southwest Effect" all over again..
 
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 7:35 pm

spinotter wrote:
SierraPacific wrote:
spinotter wrote:

And how exactly will Southwest be promptly dealt with, in accordance with the law?


They will not be allowed to grow via no new terminals or gates and will remain in their niche of 5-7 flights a day while Hawaiian flies 20-30 flights a day interisland. I don't doubt that Southwest can make money in Hawaii but it will never come at the expense of Hawaiian but rather another mainland carrier.


Interesting strategy. Can WN use your speculations as grounds for a lawsuit aganst Hawaiian Airports Unlimited?

An airport does NOT need to add gates or add to a terminal as another carrier wants in. There is NO guarantee that the carrier will stay or another carrier would use the space. It would not be the smart thing to do unless there was a guarantee that the new carrier would be staying by committing to the pay for the new gates with money in hand. There are airports already that have vacant space due to airlines leaving. HNL does not need this. :old:
Procrastination Is The Theft Of Time.......
 
tphuang
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 7:42 pm

We will soon see the fare data coming out for Q2 when they started HI flights, but I think HA has already seen its margins shrink. And that's from just 4 routes added out of west coast part of Q2. Wait until MAX is over and WN starts flying SAN/LAX/LAS/PHX-HI. It's going to be a huge problem for HA. There is a reason all this stories about HA impact on HI economy coming out. HA management knows they are in real trouble. Just wait until we have a economy crash and leisure travel goes down. Of course AS gets hurt by this too, but this is a much smaller fraction of AS's capacity.
 
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 7:56 pm

PacoMartin wrote:

Southwest can only compete with the routes flown by the 18 A321s and the 20B717s. Plus the real losers might be Alaska Air and Sun Country Airlines and the legacy carriers.

If those are HA’s bread and butter routes WN can still do serious damage (hypothetical-I do not know where HA makes a majority of their profit from but I suspect a vast majority of HA’s North American revenue are flights to the west coast). Also many of those 24 A330s are flying routes within range of the 737MAX- they are not all being used at their max range capability all the time.

HA can try and use the A330’s range for points further east, but there is a reason why thus far they have avoided eastern legacy carrier fortress hubs- the legacy carrier has the advantage due to their local network and loyalty.
 
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 8:04 pm

WN732 wrote:
SierraPacific wrote:
BlatantEcho wrote:
^^^

What exactly could the state government do to regulate what airlines were successful or not?
Are you suggesting they could give preferential treatment to one airline and discriminate against another US airline?


Doesn't the state allocate gates and or build extensions onto terminals? If Southwest was going to try and ramp-up to beat Hawaiian, they would need a ton of gates at each Hawaiian airport which is the domain of the state DOT controlled by the Hawaiian state legislature. If Southwest doesn't get more gates then they could never take on Hawaiian and compete with the level of frequency that is required in the market. Hawaiian is a Hawaiian airline while Southwest is a mainland airline, it seems very strange from an outsiders point of view but Hawaii will never lose the flagship carrier that they have had since 1929 and is one of the main economic drivers to the Hawaiian economy that is not service or tourism-based.

The inter-island operation that Hawaiian runs is actually pretty amazing with over 25 flights a day between just Honolulu and Maui so that would take an insane amount of metal to even come close to along with a Pilot and F/A base for Southwest.


They operate 4 gates out of HNL. They can do up to 48 flights per day alone out of the airport if they really tried.


12 flights per gate per day is just not possible at HNL with the current configuration. Other options have been explored but the airport is very much “this is how we operate, take it or leave it.”
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
F9Animal
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 8:07 pm

I love Hawaiian. But, with Alaska and Southwest in their turf, I am sure they will see some impact on loads. Who would have ever thought we would see Alaska and Southwest fly to Hawaii? It's shocking to say the least.

What Hawaiian has is alot of loyalty. But, loyalty sometimes isn't as big as cost savings. Having flown on a 737 to Hawaii, it was miserable. I would have loved to have been on an A330 instead.

I really hope Hawaiian is able to keep up with the new competition!
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jplatts
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 8:12 pm

WN has some connecting feed from contiguous U.S. destinations not served by HA on its California to Hawaii nonstop flights. WN also has brand loyalty in the contiguous U.S. (both in the California markets that have nonstop service to Hawaii on WN and in other markets that have 1-stop connecting service to Hawaii in both directions on WN) to support California to Hawaii nonstop service.
 
Gulfstream500
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 8:13 pm

VolvoBus wrote:
Why do we have quarterly threads on 'What will HA replace their B717's with ?'?

Obviously,the answer is the B737MAX !


Too big! Arguably, they should be buying the CRJ1000, E2, or the A220 (most likely the A220).

But the main question... Hawaiian will have to beef up their network or surrender some of their market share to WN (you know, like WOW and Icelandair). With this battle, one (or both) of them will lose.

If WN loses: They'll give up the majority of their current market share for interisland flights. But, they'll keep their West Coast to Hawaii flights, possibly with a flight to LAS.

If HA loses: They'll still have the majority of their market share in Hawaii. But, they'll likely give up a decent portion of their market share in the interisland market share, allowing WN to start a small focus city at OGG or HNL.

If they both lose: Both airlines will give unsustainably low fares, and they'll both give up a sizable amount of their market shares until fares go back to normal.
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PacoMartin
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 8:30 pm

I went to the Hawaiian Airlines website and checked on both weekday and weekend flights from Sacramento to Honolulu. There still is a flight every day, but now the equipment was always an A321 instead of an A330 like it was last year.

So it looks like they pulled the A330s off of Sacramento and are now using them to fly to Boston. So that may be their strategy in the upcoming years. But downgrading from an A330 to an A321 only removes 89 seats. If Southwest keeps adding flights, then I think you may be right about Alaska Air and Sun Country pulling out of the California to Hawaii market.
 
Silver1SWA
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 8:33 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
I went to the Hawaiian Airlines website and checked on both weekday and weekend flights from Sacramento to Honolulu. There still is a flight every day, but now the equipment was always an A321 instead of an A330 like it was last year.

So it looks like they pulled the A330s off of Sacramento and are now using them to fly to Boston. So that may be their strategy in the upcoming years. But downgrading from an A330 to an A321 only removes 89 seats. If Southwest keeps adding flights, then I think you may be right about Alaska Air and Sun Country pulling out of the California to Hawaii market.


SAN switches to A321 next year as well.
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 8:41 pm

One key question is when the MAXes return. The greater range and efficiency matters. Now the A321s have a little more range, but not much. WN has a natural advantage at LAS and PHX.

AS has the advantage at SEA and PDX. Everywhere else is a cat fight.

SierraPacific wrote:

You are missing a key part of this. Hawaiian is one of the main employers in the state of Hawaii (Actually 2nd largest). The Hawaiian state government is not going to let some Haole airline from Dallas destroy a company that employees 7k people on the islands. It doesn't matter what Southwest has, they will never be able to take over the Hawaiian market because the moment that HA calls the state government saying they have to cut jobs Southwest will be promptly dealt with.

Hawaiian consumers love choice but when the second largest employer in the state starts feeling the heat from a mainland company, they will fall in line and protect their own. Hawaii is its own world and is unlike anything WN has ever seen.

Is Hawaii immune to the Sherman and Clayton acts?
https://www.britannica.com/topic/inters ... States-law

The whole purpose of the FTC is to prevent what you just described.

Some influence pedaling is to be expected. But if HA uses government intervention to exclude HA (versus say HA 'winning' HA state government business), Hawaii will discover it isn't its own world, it is a state under US law. So let us now look at HA's options.

First, HA is well liked. As long as they maintain cost control, they will do well.

HA has first mover advantage.

HA cut costs with competition with AS.

HA's TPAC hub is a challenge with bypass.

Competition is good. I like both airlines. I will fly either.

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KlimaBXsst
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:29 pm

DEN or HOU nonstop announcements coming any time soon by HA?
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
Aptivaboy
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 10:13 pm

And how exactly will Southwest be promptly dealt with, in accordance with the law?


Bingo, great point. As loyal as Hawaii residents are to HA, they have their limits. And no, as a previous poster said you can't just deny an incoming airline slots and gates at publicly owned and operated airports. Southwest employees pay taxes too, after all. There are procedures that must be followed to allow as equitable a distribution as possible. A state can't simply shut a certain carrier out legally just like that.

My prediction is that HA will continue to take A321s, perhaps ordering or converting outstanding deliveries to the newer longer ranged models, thus allowing them to reach into the CONUS further than Southwest can with the MAX. This will open up newer markets, especially to the outer islands. I also wouldn't be surprised to see them investigate seasonal routes out of secondary airports like ONT, especially over routes that they've flown before in their history. If they could reach as far east as Denver, say, and better connect passengers with the likes of JetBlue, that would really open up a plethora of routes. A limiting factor is the size of Hawaiian airports, especially at the outer islands. OGG is receiving a makeover and a longer runway, so if this trend continues at Lihue, Hilo and Kona, for example, then we could certainly more growth in response to Southwest's competition.
 
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RWA380
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 10:46 pm

Aptivaboy wrote:
And how exactly will Southwest be promptly dealt with, in accordance with the law?


Bingo, great point. As loyal as Hawaii residents are to HA, they have their limits. And no, as a previous poster said you can't just deny an incoming airline slots and gates at publicly owned and operated airports. Southwest employees pay taxes too, after all. There are procedures that must be followed to allow as equitable a distribution as possible. A state can't simply shut a certain carrier out legally just like that.

My prediction is that HA will continue to take A321s, perhaps ordering or converting outstanding deliveries to the newer longer ranged models, thus allowing them to reach into the CONUS further than Southwest can with the MAX. This will open up newer markets, especially to the outer islands. I also wouldn't be surprised to see them investigate seasonal routes out of secondary airports like ONT, especially over routes that they've flown before in their history. If they could reach as far east as Denver, say, and better connect passengers with the likes of JetBlue, that would really open up a plethora of routes. A limiting factor is the size of Hawaiian airports, especially at the outer islands. OGG is receiving a makeover and a longer runway, so if this trend continues at Lihue, Hilo and Kona, for example, then we could certainly more growth in response to Southwest's competition.


UA was kept from expanding into the Inter Island market by the late Sen Inouye. He was able to demonstrate that if UA placed a sub-fleet of 73S aircraft in HNL & ran an Inter Island operation, it would put AQ out of business. This would substantially exceed the state funds allocated with programs like food stamps, welfare for families & would put the state into a recession. United would not guarantee jobs for AQ employees either, only promising to hire locals after any UA employees from elsewhere were given the option to transfer in to any Island station first.

If WN takes on HA flight for flight, there will be two carriers that adjust to their own newly sized operation to meet the demands of the market & nothing more. No one carrier will take the place of the other & with WN limited in gate space at HNL, it's already restrained since HNL is still their Hawaiian hub for mainland traffic.

Bottom line is, The State WILL step in with the government if HA were on the edge of failing because of WN to keep the economy stable there, as others have shared HA is the second largest employer in the state & certainly the US government can't have the economy free falling where there are so many US Government employees & their families living. So while poorly stated, the intent is correct Hawaii will fight for the stability of their economy.

I agree HA would benefit from the longest range A-321neo, Geographically speaking they can take advantage of that range to the mainland & other Pacific Island groups, ie ... RAR. APW, PPG, PPT as examples. I still doubt DEN would be viable with a meaningful payload. Right now HA connects to B6 in several cities, LAX, LGB, LAS being a few meaningful connecting points. But HA connects to B6's BOS & JFK flights, places HA already flies. The only other destinations are FLL & a few other dots on the map. It's not a big potion of traffic for HA I'd bet.

If HA doesn't go back to ONT, WN will start it down the road, sooner than later as well.
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SkyHawaii
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:12 pm


Too big! Arguably, they should be buying the CRJ1000, E2, or the A220 (most likely the A220).

But the main question... Hawaiian will have to beef up their network or surrender some of their market share to WN (you know, like WOW and Icelandair). With this battle, one (or both) of them will lose.

If WN loses: They'll give up the majority of their current market share for interisland flights. But, they'll keep their West Coast to Hawaii flights, possibly with a flight to LAS.

If HA loses: They'll still have the majority of their market share in Hawaii. But, they'll likely give up a decent portion of their market share in the interisland market share, allowing WN to start a small focus city at OGG or HNL.

If they both lose: Both airlines will give unsustainably low fares, and they'll both give up a sizable amount of their market shares until fares go back to normal.


Why does everyone think it's a win-lose or lose-lose option in Hawaii? It's not like all the other airlines in the US went under every time WN entered their home turf. Hawaiian and Aloha survived side-by-side for decades (yes, there were a lot of struggles) and Aloha finally went under because of go! undercutting them. Now that go! and Island Air are gone, there should be plenty of room for WN and HA since WN is only doing low-frequency flights, while HA is operating high-frequencies and also operates a more robust network with the long-haul (A330) and turboprop operations (ATR-42) which WN doesn't do.
 
tphuang
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:20 pm

the options are not just stay alive or go under. HA isn't going under. They will be merged with someone else when they start losing money and stock prices sink really low. And whoever buys them will have to maintain employment in HI.
 
strfyr51
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:40 pm

Busyboy2 wrote:
SierraPacific wrote:
I've always personally believeN's entry to the market was going to kill Alaska's Hawaii business rather than Hawaiian. Hawaiian has the Hawaiian state government's full support, brand loyalty, and a way larger network from the islds than Southwest could ever muster while Alaska is in a strange place with direct competition on almost all of their routes along with flying the same equipment and a similar in-flight experience as WN.

The only real threat WN poses to HA is the interisland market but even then WN will never match HA in that arena.


Really? No. You don't ACTUALLY believe that do you? Southwest has nearly 10 times the annual revenue as Hawaiian ($2.8B vs. $22B) and 10 times the number of employees. HA has 58 airplanes. Southwest has 730 or so. And Southwest will add about 100 max8's by next summer. SWA could put so much capacity on inter island you wouldn't believe it. And according to the locals, their is no brand loyalty. The only thing that matters is the cost. Full stop.

the problem is? Even with WN's MAX airplanes? Hawaiian will have more range and diversity At Home or AWAY. WN could probably fly more people from the west coast but even there they're flying from the WEST coast with everybody and their Brother.
 
Aptivaboy
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:44 pm

UA was kept from expanding into the Inter Island market by the late Sen Inouye. He was able to demonstrate that if UA placed a sub-fleet of 73S aircraft in HNL & ran an Inter Island operation, it would put AQ out of business. This would substantially exceed the state funds allocated with programs like food stamps, welfare for families & would put the state into a recession. United would not guarantee jobs for AQ employees either, only promising to hire locals after any UA employees from elsewhere were given the option to transfer in to any Island station first.


You actually just made my point. Based upon what you said, there had to be a legal basis for Inouye to get involved as he did. He couldn't just wave his hand and make United go away by fiat. He had to bring this up in committee, through the regulatory process, in hearings, etc. Based upon your own words, Inouye had to show some substantial harm to the state which would outweigh the benefits of another airline entering the market on a public policy basis. We don't live in a monarchy here in the Colonies. There are legal processes for everything.
 
strfyr51
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:45 pm

also? Add that Southwest STILL doesn't do any Might flying so even if you want to connect from Hawaii to the interior mainland ? WN is NOT going to get you there.
So you're going to have to wait overnight? OR Connect to another carrier to take you home!
 
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SierraPacific
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:55 pm

Aptivaboy wrote:
UA was kept from expanding into the Inter Island market by the late Sen Inouye. He was able to demonstrate that if UA placed a sub-fleet of 73S aircraft in HNL & ran an Inter Island operation, it would put AQ out of business. This would substantially exceed the state funds allocated with programs like food stamps, welfare for families & would put the state into a recession. United would not guarantee jobs for AQ employees either, only promising to hire locals after any UA employees from elsewhere were given the option to transfer in to any Island station first.


You actually just made my point. Based upon what you said, there had to be a legal basis for Inouye to get involved as he did. He couldn't just wave his hand and make United go away by fiat. He had to bring this up in committee, through the regulatory process, in hearings, etc. Based upon your own words, Inouye had to show some substantial harm to the state which would outweigh the benefits of another airline entering the market on a public policy basis. We don't live in a monarchy here in the Colonies. There are legal processes for everything.


AQ was a smaller carrier than HA today when that happened, so really his point still stands that there is a precedent for the state government to prevent expansion by WN. WN could never provide the amount of high paying white-collar jobs that HA provides to the state so the state will rightly step in like in previous decades to protect one of the largest companies in the state currently.

Hawaiian and Southwest are both great carriers and can easily exist in the same market but WN will never be allowed to be able to flood the interisland market to the point that HA would hit dire financial straits IMO.
Last edited by SierraPacific on Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
georgiabill
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:58 pm

I think AS has more to worry about Hawaii operations than HA does with WN flying from the west coast
 
strfyr51
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:59 pm

000That WN is flying interisland in Hawaii is not even a New Idea. United Proposed to do it and Sen, Dan Inouye asked them Not to.
United flies to everyplace you can get to In Hawaii and Beyond Hawaii as well. WN is just flying "Tag End" flights to rotate their airplanes Back to the mainland to make it LOOK like they're providing REAL Hawaiian Service..
 
Chasensfo
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Tue Sep 03, 2019 12:00 am

PhilMcCrackin wrote:
I'm pretty sure HA has stated the NEOs are mostly for opening routes from existing mainland cities to the secondary islands, not to go on a opening new mainland cities spree.

Indeed, but while I'd be surprised to see the airline go on an adding cities spree, I do expect to see BUR and/or SNA, and possibly RNO, added in the future unless Southwest beats Hawaiian to the punch. Basically, the old Aloha stations that are no longer served.
 
paulsaz
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Tue Sep 03, 2019 12:11 am

Just checked google flights HNL-OGG is $49 same day for most days, $39 and $59 for the others. I really don't know, but was that the fare HA was getting before WN started inter-island flights?
 
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lightsaber
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Tue Sep 03, 2019 12:42 am

Someone noted AS has more to worry about than HA. I agree.

Three of my five favorite airlines in a brutal competition. I do not know how to vote.



strfyr51 wrote:
000That WN is flying interisland in Hawaii is not even a New Idea. United Proposed to do it and Sen, Dan Inouye asked them Not to.
United flies to everyplace you can get to In Hawaii and Beyond Hawaii as well. WN is just flying "Tag End" flights to rotate their airplanes Back to the mainland to make it LOOK like they're providing REAL Hawaiian Service..

Triangle flights are not a new concept. If say INT-OGG-HNL-ONT works, why not? If another flight completes the alternative loop, it works. Now somewhere in there WN pay Hawaii hotels/taxes.

If the service is insufficient, customers will vote with their dollars. If WN is losing money, they will retreat. If overall it is a profitable expansion, WN will become established.

Lightsaber
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BN727227Ultra
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Tue Sep 03, 2019 1:01 am

Hourly DAL-HOU, using 717s.
 
tphuang
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Re: How will Hawaiian react to competition from Southwest?

Tue Sep 03, 2019 1:11 am

lightsaber wrote:
Someone noted AS has more to worry about than HA. I agree.

Three of my five favorite airlines in a brutal competition. I do not know how to vote.



strfyr51 wrote:
000That WN is flying interisland in Hawaii is not even a New Idea. United Proposed to do it and Sen, Dan Inouye asked them Not to.
United flies to everyplace you can get to In Hawaii and Beyond Hawaii as well. WN is just flying "Tag End" flights to rotate their airplanes Back to the mainland to make it LOOK like they're providing REAL Hawaiian Service..

Triangle flights are not a new concept. If say INT-OGG-HNL-ONT works, why not? If another flight completes the alternative loop, it works. Now somewhere in there WN pay Hawaii hotels/taxes.

If the service is insufficient, customers will vote with their dollars. If WN is losing money, they will retreat. If overall it is a profitable expansion, WN will become established.

Lightsaber


I don't think WN will retreat. They've cut EWR, give up on P2P at BOS, cut many transcon to fund HI during this HI move. This is a strategic move on the level of their DEN and current BNA buildup. The reason is this was their only major disadvantage to AS aside from PNW out of California and they've identified AS's west coast presence as an existential threat to their west coast dominance. WN has the money to draw this out and cause HA to go in the red by late 2020. AS can always cut OAK/SMF-HI if things get bad and rest of their network will be fine.

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