RB211trent
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Sun Sep 08, 2019 8:37 am

EK7777 wrote:
More context on EK not being a huge fan of the T900s:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-emir ... SKCN1N90EA

It says that the performance is not up to spec but it also says that EA was not even interested because they couldn’t even compete with the T900.
 
EK7777
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:29 am

An EK pilot on a PPRune said two 6.5 year old frames were being scrapped, and planespotters.net has marked EEH (MSN 119) and EEK (MSN 132) as stored.

Frames parked at DWC are occasionally used for crew training, however EEH and EEK have been there since 25th and 29th August respectively and have not moved since.

Both were in ULR config, delivered in summer of 2013.
 
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Polot
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:03 pm

RB211trent wrote:
EK7777 wrote:
More context on EK not being a huge fan of the T900s:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-emir ... SKCN1N90EA

It says that the performance is not up to spec but it also says that EA was not even interested because they couldn’t even compete with the T900.

The article doesn’t say that at all-it just says EA was not interested in restarting GP7200 production (since there were no more EA powered A380s in the backlog) just for EK’s order when the two companies that make up the EA JV have other priorities that they would rather focus on.
 
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Revelation
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:06 pm

EK7777 wrote:
An EK pilot on a PPRune said two 6.5 year old frames were being scrapped, and planespotters.net has marked EEH (MSN 119) and EEK (MSN 132) as stored.

Frames parked at DWC are occasionally used for crew training, however EEH and EEK have been there since 25th and 29th August respectively and have not moved since.

Both were in ULR config, delivered in summer of 2013.

The thread starter article said:

Two A380s have been withdrawn from service at Dubai World Central (DWC) airport and will be used as a spares source for the operational fleet, says Clark.

“We are in the process of [starting A380 retirements]. Two have been deactivated. They are under retirement because we’ve got a major overhaul coming up and it’s best to take the old aircraft out – they’re all written down – and take the gear off them rather than buy a $25 million main landing gear. I need two, possibly three, to meet that [overhaul] requirement.”

So, presumably the two airframes deactivated are EEH and EEK, presumably because they are due a major check.

Yet these don't fit the "old, written down" description STC used, if they are 2013 deliveries, but with six years service they would be ready for a major check.
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Wed Sep 11, 2019 3:20 pm

Revelation wrote:
Yet these don't fit the "old, written down" description STC used, if they are 2013 deliveries, but with six years service they would be ready for a major check.


Correct.

The only two A6-EDx (2008-2012 deliveries) that are inactive are A6-EDN (which isn't at DWC) and A6-EDG which just flew there a few days ago and is being used for crew training.
 
skipness1E
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Wed Sep 11, 2019 3:55 pm

A6-EEK is leased from Doric, thought it was the owned ones that were being parked?
 
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Wed Sep 11, 2019 4:53 pm

skipness1E wrote:
A6-EEK is leased from Doric, thought it was the owned ones that were being parked?

STC said a detailed retirment list/schedule has been prepared.

Too bad he hasn't shared it with us! :biggrin:

Seems these birds may be just temporary parts donors, unless there has been an agreement with the lessor to part them out.
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worldranger
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:07 pm

skipness1E wrote:
A6-EEK is leased from Doric, thought it was the owned ones that were being parked?


Not sure what type of lease these two have with Doric but there are two types of leases ‘Operating’ & ‘Financial’ (or Capital).

An operating lease is where the Lessor assumes ownership and ‘rents’ the aircraft through the term and thus assumes the depreciated asset at lease end.

A Financial or Capital lease is where the airline receives a ‘loan’ (lease purchase) from the Lessor to finance the aircraft and thus the airline takes ownership at end of lease.

Lots of complicated tax and offshore depreciation details with both.

The parted out aircraft are due to come off Financial leases.
 
Sokes
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:18 am

I assumed lot of capacity is o.k. for a plane provided CASM is cheap enough. It seems I'm wrong.
If a few year old planes are used for spare outs because a new landing gear is too expensive, why did airlines buy this plane from the beginning?
Was there such a shortage of long range planes until B777-300ER and B787 provided ample supply?
Is there excess capacity now?
Can a new B777-9X compete with an A380 for throw-away prices?
Or are the B787 fans right after all?
I find it very confusing if a few year old planes get retired.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
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SQ789
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:31 am

EK7777 wrote:
An EK pilot on a PPRune said two 6.5 year old frames were being scrapped, and planespotters.net has marked EEH (MSN 119) and EEK (MSN 132) as stored.

Frames parked at DWC are occasionally used for crew training, however EEH and EEK have been there since 25th and 29th August respectively and have not moved since.

Both were in ULR config, delivered in summer of 2013.

Those 2 A380's are too young to be retired.
If it's not Boeing, I'm not going!
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:12 am

SQ789 wrote:
EK7777 wrote:
An EK pilot on a PPRune said two 6.5 year old frames were being scrapped, and planespotters.net has marked EEH (MSN 119) and EEK (MSN 132) as stored.

Frames parked at DWC are occasionally used for crew training, however EEH and EEK have been there since 25th and 29th August respectively and have not moved since.

Both were in ULR config, delivered in summer of 2013.

Those 2 A380's are too young to be retired.


If they has too much cycles, then they are the scrapped.
 
skipness1E
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:15 am

They won’t have too many cycles at six years old..........
 
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Richard28
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:17 am

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
SQ789 wrote:
EK7777 wrote:
An EK pilot on a PPRune said two 6.5 year old frames were being scrapped, and planespotters.net has marked EEH (MSN 119) and EEK (MSN 132) as stored.

Frames parked at DWC are occasionally used for crew training, however EEH and EEK have been there since 25th and 29th August respectively and have not moved since.

Both were in ULR config, delivered in summer of 2013.

Those 2 A380's are too young to be retired.


If they has too much cycles, then they are the scrapped.


If they are both in ULR config then cycles on those frames should be lower.
 
morrisond
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:49 am

Sokes wrote:
I assumed lot of capacity is o.k. for a plane provided CASM is cheap enough. It seems I'm wrong.
If a few year old planes are used for spare outs because a new landing gear is too expensive, why did airlines buy this plane from the beginning?
Was there such a shortage of long range planes until B777-300ER and B787 provided ample supply?
Is there excess capacity now?
Can a new B777-9X compete with an A380 for throw-away prices?
Or are the B787 fans right after all?
I find it very confusing if a few year old planes get retired.


Unfortunately the A380 was a victim of underinvestment due to the consequence of only selling a few hundred vs 1,500+ as was initially projected in 2005. It makes all the parts and replacement parts a lot more expensive than originally envisioned.

They based there Go/No Decision on whether or not to do the program on Production of 120 frames per year. I think in only one year it hit 30 and they have averaged less than 20 per year since production began.

That radically changes the economics of the program and what price Airbus could have sold the frames for at a profit.

Combine that with a basic structure that was way too heavy (for it's current length) as it was designed to be stretched to a possible 85M and I believe 650T take-off weight.

Those facts combined with the 777W being better than expected put the knives into the program.

It could have been saved but that probably would have necessitated massive investment to stretch/lighten it/make it cheaper to build - but still they probably were never going to get over 50 frames per year.

Heck at this point it will be amazing if 777X can do 50 per year long term and I highly doubt 787 will stay at 168. There is not enough demand for production at those rates.

Long term I think you will see 777X at about 30-40, 787 80-100, A350 about the same 80-100 with the A330 at about 30-40 as well before dieing off within 7-8 years.

A321LR/XLR are fragmenting the market and when NMA comes along that will most likely further reduce demand for big expensive/less flexible wide bodies.
 
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:57 pm

Sokes wrote:
I assumed lot of capacity is o.k. for a plane provided CASM is cheap enough. It seems I'm wrong.
If a few year old planes are used for spare outs because a new landing gear is too expensive, why did airlines buy this plane from the beginning?
Was there such a shortage of long range planes until B777-300ER and B787 provided ample supply?
Is there excess capacity now?
Can a new B777-9X compete with an A380 for throw-away prices?
Or are the B787 fans right after all?
I find it very confusing if a few year old planes get retired.

A380 CASM is not cheap enough.

A380 CASM is about the same as 77W but with higher trip costs.

Earlier VLA like original 747 had lower CASM than contemporaries so at the equivalent load factor for suitable routes you made more money than your competitors

With A380 at equivalent load factor you make no more money than competitors yet still pay higher trip costs that burn you when you miss on load factor.

EK has always used a lease heavy business model so to them planes are 12 year throw away items.

Sure, you can get a cheap lease extension on A380 rather than take 779 but that means you still need to put it through an expensive heavy check, refresh if not replace the interior, and pay maintenance on an ageing aircraft.

All this to get a huge plane with 77W era economics that needs very high passenger volume to make money.

IMO a T7000 like NEO might have given EK some incentive to stay with the Whale, but Airbus and RR could not make the numbers work.

And now we see EK's business model is being undermined by hub bypass, competitors flying right sized aircraft, less people attracted to Dubai's glitz and glimmer due to smaller pay packets, etc.

It will be interesting to see if EK does become a 787 airline.
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:14 pm

Revelation wrote:
Sokes wrote:
I assumed lot of capacity is o.k. for a plane provided CASM is cheap enough. It seems I'm wrong.
If a few year old planes are used for spare outs because a new landing gear is too expensive, why did airlines buy this plane from the beginning?
Was there such a shortage of long range planes until B777-300ER and B787 provided ample supply?
Is there excess capacity now?
Can a new B777-9X compete with an A380 for throw-away prices?
Or are the B787 fans right after all?
I find it very confusing if a few year old planes get retired.

A380 CASM is not cheap enough.

A380 CASM is about the same as 77W but with higher trip costs.

Earlier VLA like original 747 had lower CASM than contemporaries so at the equivalent load factor for suitable routes you made more money than your competitors

With A380 at equivalent load factor you make no more money than competitors yet still pay higher trip costs that burn you when you miss on load factor.

EK has always used a lease heavy business model so to them planes are 12 year throw away items.

Sure, you can get a cheap lease extension on A380 rather than take 779 but that means you still need to put it through an expensive heavy check, refresh if not replace the interior, and pay maintenance on an ageing aircraft.

All this to get a huge plane with 77W era economics that needs very high passenger volume to make money.

IMO a T7000 like NEO might have given EK some incentive to stay with the Whale, but Airbus and RR could not make the numbers work.

And now we see EK's business model is being undermined by hub bypass, competitors flying right sized aircraft, less people attracted to Dubai's glitz and glimmer due to smaller pay packets, etc.

It will be interesting to see if EK does become a 787 airline.

I agree with almost everything in this post. The one nitpick isn't less people atteacted to Dubai's glitz, there isn't growth and low growth markets are less profitable. Same consequence, just an adjustment of how the pain comes to Dubai.

EK must adapt to hub bypass as that is growing. The A321xLR 788/789, A339, A359, and hopefully NMA all allow more bypass. For example, I don't see much flying from Spain to Asia other than the ME3 hubs. Or much MAN or DUB direct. Premium passengers pay more, in general, for direct flights.

Not to mention business jets continue to skim off the top of the market, for good reasons.

The business model has changed. EK is adapting. Late as Revaluation has previously noted too, but adapting. Plus there are new superconnecting hubs competing. So it comes down to cost. ADD and IST are just better located for some connections. DXB is better blocsted for other connections.

Personally, I'm waiting to see if HYD dropping fuel taxes allows for a better Indian connecting hub. I haven't seen the growth I hoped for. Oh well, quickly off topic. What matter is more competition driving down yield and that requires a new strategy.

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BAeRJ100
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:19 pm

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
If they has too much cycles, then they are the scrapped.


Either you think EK flogs their A380s on nothing but short sectors, or that the A380 has a very short cycle life, OR you simply aren't thinking before posting, because there's no way any any A380 in existence, let along a 6 year old frame, has reached its cycle limit.
B737/738/739/744ER/752/753/763/77L/77W/788/789
A223/320/321/332/333/346/359/388
MD82/MD88/717/F100/RJ85/RJ100/146-100/200/300
E175/190/CRJ700/900
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:40 pm

BAeRJ100 wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
If they has too much cycles, then they are the scrapped.


Either you think EK flogs their A380s on nothing but short sectors, or that the A380 has a very short cycle life, OR you simply aren't thinking before posting, because there's no way any any A380 in existence, let along a 6 year old frame, has reached its cycle limit.


I did say 'if'. Not a matter of fact.

Welcome any thesis' you have to support why the EK going to possibly scrap young a380s.
 
Sokes
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Fri Sep 13, 2019 3:58 am

morrisond wrote:
Combine that with a basic structure that was way too heavy (for it's current length) as it was designed to be stretched to a possible 85M and I believe 650T take-off weight.


Strong point.


morrisond wrote:
Heck at this point it will be amazing if 777X can do 50 per year long term and I highly doubt 787 will stay at 168. There is not enough demand for production at those rates.

Long term I think you will see 777X at about 30-40, 787 80-100, A350 about the same 80-100 with the A330 at about 30-40 as well before dieing off within 7-8 years.

A321LR/XLR are fragmenting the market and when NMA comes along that will most likely further reduce demand for big expensive/less flexible wide bodies.


I once flew Bombay-Kairo in a B737-800. I expect A321 Neos to replace A320s and B737-800s on the maximum possible ranges. I agree with the NMA.
That apart I believe transatlantic or Europe-Arabian Gulf... will always need passenger and cargo widebodies. Which of course doesn't contradict your fragmentation statement.

Your wide-body predictions sound reasonable.

Revelation wrote:
A380 CASM is not cheap enough.
A380 CASM is about the same as 77W but with higher trip costs.
...
All this to get a huge plane with 77W era economics that needs very high passenger volume to make money.


An A380 is not exactly cheap. Capital costs should be significant. But I don't have any idea how many % of CASM are capital costs.
Emirate uses A380s to fly to Europe as well as to the US. While the CASM to the US is probably o.k., I doubt CASM for Europe was o.k. even when the A380 was introduced.
But are A380s for Dubai really about CASM? Those who are willing to make holidays in a desert provided it's luxurious enough may simply want an A380.
Is the airline meant to make maximum profit or meant to help bring tourists?
For all other airlines I agree with all your points.


lightsaber wrote:
Personally, I'm waiting to see if HYD dropping fuel taxes allows for a better Indian connecting hub. I haven't seen the growth I hoped for. Oh well, quickly off topic. What matter is more competition driving down yield and that requires a new strategy.

Lightsaber


Surprising:
"Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) in India has not yet been brought under the goods and services tax (GST) regime. The central government currently charges an 11% excise duty on ATF and state-level taxes can go as high as 30%."
https://qz.com/india/1657169/can-nirmal ... air-india/
As I believe high fuel taxes fuels innovation, I disagree with you. I rather think the world should follow India's lead.

I always thought Delhi would make a fabulous hub for SE Asia to Europe. Though I'm not sure if the Himalayas are in the way to reach cities in SE China.
Why don't you start a separate topic about potential hubs in India?

SQ789 wrote:
Those 2 A380's are too young to be retired.


Which explains my confusion. I asked the wrong questions. I guess because I assumed Emirates will always have a policy of flying young planes.
I should have rather asked myself "How comes young A380s get retired when old B747-400s are still in service?".
It just doesn't add up.

Therefore my assumption:
If planes have few cycles they can be used very long, e.g. narrow-bodies in the US vs.Europe.
If the A380 is discontinued, but Emirates wants to offer A380 luxuries even in 25 years, it's best to store young planes that are due for a heavy check for a few years.
I'm not saying they like to do it. But if they can't fill the plane and with cheap money flooding the world it's a reasonable possibility.
As monetarism says: cheap money leads to stupid investments. With normal interest rates I doubt an airline would accept new deliveries while the same type is parked because of lack of demand.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Fri Sep 13, 2019 4:21 am

Sokes wrote:
Which explains my confusion. I asked the wrong questions. I guess because I assumed Emirates will always have a policy of flying young planes.
I should have rather asked myself "How comes young A380s get retired when old B747-400s are still in service?".
It just doesn't add up.


EK only has A380 and B777 in their fleet.
 
Sokes
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Fri Sep 13, 2019 4:35 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
Sokes wrote:
Which explains my confusion. I asked the wrong questions. I guess because I assumed Emirates will always have a policy of flying young planes.
I should have rather asked myself "How comes young A380s get retired when old B747-400s are still in service?".
It just doesn't add up.


EK only has A380 and B777 in their fleet.


And how does this contradict my statement?
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
FlyHappy
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Fri Sep 13, 2019 4:54 am

Sokes wrote:
I should have rather asked myself "How comes young A380s get retired when old B747-400s are still in service?".
It just doesn't add up.

sure it does.
parts and maintenance, even expertise of the 744 make for significantly lower cost of operation. simple quantities and longevity (family) see to that.

Sokes wrote:
If the A380 is discontinued, but Emirates wants to offer A380 luxuries even in 25 years, it's best to store young planes that are due for a heavy check for a few years.


No if - it is discontinued, by normal measures - no more sales will be made, the last delivery is scheduled (and could easily be sooner)
No one, most certainly not EK, will be flying the A380 in 25 years. It is too big today, and will be far too big and inefficient then, with no supporting mass as the 747 enjoyed. You're far more likely to find an A340 flying 25 years after production.
 
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Fri Sep 13, 2019 5:43 am

FlyHappy wrote:
No one, most certainly not EK, will be flying the A380 in 25 years. It is too big today, and will be far too big and inefficient then, with no supporting mass as the 747 enjoyed. You're far more likely to find an A340 flying 25 years after production.


So why does Emirates park young planes instead of old ones?
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
TC957
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Fri Sep 13, 2019 7:41 am

Sokes wrote:
FlyHappy wrote:
No one, most certainly not EK, will be flying the A380 in 25 years. It is too big today, and will be far too big and inefficient then, with no supporting mass as the 747 enjoyed. You're far more likely to find an A340 flying 25 years after production.


So why does Emirates park young planes instead of old ones?

I think you will find they rotate around the fleet which ones get parked up at DWC, maybe for waiting for hanger space and engineering teams to be available at DXB as major checks become due. I guess the incident to A6-EOP within a hanger has restricted available space further.
 
Sokes
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Fri Sep 13, 2019 8:42 am

TC957 wrote:
Sokes wrote:

So why does Emirates park young planes instead of old ones?

I think you will find they rotate around the fleet which ones get parked up at DWC, maybe for waiting for hanger space and engineering teams to be available at DXB as major checks become due. I guess the incident to A6-EOP within a hanger has restricted available space further.


Which means some of us got worked up about nothing.
Good answer. Thanks.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
69bug
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Fri Sep 13, 2019 9:50 am

If the parked up planes are nearing their major checks or major components need replacing (think landing-gears) it may be more economical to park them and rob parts off them. If they are required they can be put back into service fairly easily if the paperwork is kept in order.
This is especially true if your projection for the immediate to short-term future does not require so many planes or favour frequency over capacity in which a 777 may be better.

bug
 
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par13del
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Fri Sep 13, 2019 10:46 am

If EK owns any A380's those would be the first frames to be parked and used for spare parts, because they do not have to be returned to the lessors. Leased frames have to be made whole and refurbished by EK when the lease expires, so all those parts removed have to be replaced, any bet's on whether replacement parts are cheaper today versus 5 years time?
 
LTCM
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Fri Sep 13, 2019 11:00 am

par13del wrote:
If EK owns any A380's those would be the first frames to be parked and used for spare parts, because they do not have to be returned to the lessors. Leased frames have to be made whole and refurbished by EK when the lease expires, so all those parts removed have to be replaced, any bet's on whether replacement parts are cheaper today versus 5 years time?

Not always. The required condition of a plane returned to lessors depends entirely on what the two parties can agree to. If the leasing company wants to accept a cash payment instead of refurbishment then that's perfectly fine if EK agrees.
 
Strato2
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Fri Sep 13, 2019 11:09 am

morrisond wrote:
Unfortunately the A380 was a victim of underinvestment due to the consequence of only selling a few hundred vs 1,500+ as was initially projected in 2005. It makes all the parts and replacement parts a lot more expensive than originally envisioned.

They based there Go/No Decision on whether or not to do the program on Production of 120 frames per year. I think in only one year it hit 30 and they have averaged less than 20 per year since production began.


Your numbers are wrong by a country mile. Production 48/year. Sales target 750.
 
morrisond
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Fri Sep 13, 2019 11:12 am

par13del wrote:
If EK owns any A380's those would be the first frames to be parked and used for spare parts, because they do not have to be returned to the lessors. Leased frames have to be made whole and refurbished by EK when the lease expires, so all those parts removed have to be replaced, any bet's on whether replacement parts are cheaper today versus 5 years time?


Good point. I would to guess that by now with the number of A380's that are parked/will shortly be parked and used for parts - sales of new Parts by Airbus are about to dry up rather quickly.

It will probably be much more likely that when Operators choose to get rid of there frames they are sold for parts to the remaining operators vs taken on by new operators.

There will be tons of lower cost to maintain secondhand 777W's that will be coming onto the market in the next decade that can be bought (and stuffed full of seats) and used for seasonal HAJ like operations.
 
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par13del
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Fri Sep 13, 2019 11:19 am

Another question, based on the number of A380's that EK has, if they start scrapping for parts that ultimately make an a/c not flyable, do they have adequate boneyard space?
 
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Slash787
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Fri Sep 13, 2019 12:01 pm

Iran Air could have used these planes.
 
TC957
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Fri Sep 13, 2019 12:33 pm

par13del wrote:
Another question, based on the number of A380's that EK has, if they start scrapping for parts that ultimately make an a/c not flyable, do they have adequate boneyard space?

At DWC, certainly, at DXB - no. However not sure if EK want the image of their planes being parted out locally to be circulated around Dubai. Hence I suspect they'll be flown out to one of the European boneyards.
 
TC957
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Fri Sep 13, 2019 12:38 pm

Slash787 wrote:
Iran Air could have used these planes.

I'm sure they would but we all know why that can't happen. It does seem the shady back-door deals to get used airliners to Iran has been blocked for now, shame that this is. Mahan etc would love the ex-EY and VS A346's for example to add to the ones they got via the back door a few years ago.
 
Arion640
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Fri Sep 13, 2019 12:53 pm

I’m shocked if these frames will be scrapped. Probably to be put back together again at later date.

I think Emirates earlier birds were supposed to of been retired by now when in-fact they’re still flying.
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Fri Sep 13, 2019 12:59 pm

FlyHappy wrote:
Sokes wrote:
I should have rather asked myself "How comes young A380s get retired when old B747-400s are still in service?".
It just doesn't add up.

sure it does.
parts and maintenance, even expertise of the 744 make for significantly lower cost of operation. simple quantities and longevity (family) see to that.

Sokes wrote:
If the A380 is discontinued, but Emirates wants to offer A380 luxuries even in 25 years, it's best to store young planes that are due for a heavy check for a few years.


No if - it is discontinued, by normal measures - no more sales will be made, the last delivery is scheduled (and could easily be sooner)
No one, most certainly not EK, will be flying the A380 in 25 years. It is too big today, and will be far too big and inefficient then, with no supporting mass as the 747 enjoyed. You're far more likely to find an A340 flying 25 years after production.

Also we see the remaining 744 largely running on premium heavy relatively short trunk routes to help make up for their inferior economics, quite unlike the long range stuff they did when they were young. They are being replaced by twin engined aircraft of various sizes. The A380 will follow this same trajectory.

Sokes wrote:
FlyHappy wrote:
No one, most certainly not EK, will be flying the A380 in 25 years. It is too big today, and will be far too big and inefficient then, with no supporting mass as the 747 enjoyed. You're far more likely to find an A340 flying 25 years after production.


So why does Emirates park young planes instead of old ones?

Simple expense management. When short of money, park the ones that need expensive work in the near future.

Strato2 wrote:
morrisond wrote:
Unfortunately the A380 was a victim of underinvestment due to the consequence of only selling a few hundred vs 1,500+ as was initially projected in 2005. It makes all the parts and replacement parts a lot more expensive than originally envisioned.

They based there Go/No Decision on whether or not to do the program on Production of 120 frames per year. I think in only one year it hit 30 and they have averaged less than 20 per year since production began.


Your numbers are wrong by a country mile. Production 48/year. Sales target 750.

The 120/year was the ultimate goal i.e. factories were sized for that rate, yet not fully built out for that rate.

Slash787 wrote:
Iran Air could have used these planes.

Why, do they have centrifuges on them?
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TC957
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Fri Sep 13, 2019 2:55 pm

So, is it confirmed that EEH & EEK are the two unfortunate frames that will meet a premature end ?
 
EK7777
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Fri Sep 13, 2019 3:19 pm

TC957 wrote:
So, is it confirmed that EEH & EEK are the two unfortunate frames that will meet a premature end ?
I wouldn't say it's confirmed just yet, but most of the rumours are pointing to those two.

My initial suspicions about it being EEJ were proven wrong because it returned to commercial service, presumably after a major maintenance check since it was out of service for well over a month.
 
FlyHappy
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Fri Sep 13, 2019 9:03 pm

Slash787 wrote:
Iran Air could have used these planes.


and how would they reliably get spare parts for them?
what routes does Iran Air fly that make the A380 a compelling platform?
 
Sokes
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:30 am

FlyHappy wrote:
Slash787 wrote:
Iran Air could have used these planes.


and how would they reliably get spare parts for them?
what routes does Iran Air fly that make the A380 a compelling platform?


They could introduce business class heavy direct flights to the US.
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TC957
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:41 am

EK7777 wrote:
TC957 wrote:
So, is it confirmed that EEH & EEK are the two unfortunate frames that will meet a premature end ?
I wouldn't say it's confirmed just yet, but most of the rumours are pointing to those two.

My initial suspicions about it being EEJ were proven wrong because it returned to commercial service, presumably after a major maintenance check since it was out of service for well over a month.

Many thanks - keep us updated please.
Clearly STC is not an a-netter, he coldly said in that recent interview he " doesn't care " what happens to the 380's once they are finished with EK, whereas I have no doubt every retired frame will be religiously mourned over and tracked on here !
 
EK7777
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Sat Sep 14, 2019 12:39 pm

TC957 wrote:
EK7777 wrote:
TC957 wrote:
So, is it confirmed that EEH & EEK are the two unfortunate frames that will meet a premature end ?
I wouldn't say it's confirmed just yet, but most of the rumours are pointing to those two.

My initial suspicions about it being EEJ were proven wrong because it returned to commercial service, presumably after a major maintenance check since it was out of service for well over a month.

Many thanks - keep us updated please.
Clearly STC is not an a-netter, he coldly said in that recent interview he " doesn't care " what happens to the 380's once they are finished with EK, whereas I have no doubt every retired frame will be religiously mourned over and tracked on here !
I found this article that mentions EEH and EEK, but I suspect most aviation sites reporting this are just checking which two frames were in storage when the STC article was published.

https://airwaysmag.com/airlines/emirate ... etirement/
 
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lightsaber
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Sat Sep 14, 2019 2:28 pm

TC957 wrote:
EK7777 wrote:
TC957 wrote:
So, is it confirmed that EEH & EEK are the two unfortunate frames that will meet a premature end ?
I wouldn't say it's confirmed just yet, but most of the rumours are pointing to those two.

My initial suspicions about it being EEJ were proven wrong because it returned to commercial service, presumably after a major maintenance check since it was out of service for well over a month.

Many thanks - keep us updated please.
Clearly STC is not an a-netter, he coldly said in that recent interview he " doesn't care " what happens to the 380's once they are finished with EK, whereas I have no doubt every retired frame will be religiously mourned over and tracked on here !

STC must run a business to subsidize Dubai. He cannot care. He also knows that scrapped A380s will help reduce his part costs short term.

The A380 doesn't save fuel versus a 77W and uses more than the 787-10, A359/A35K/779 per equivalent passenger. A meet idea. But a limited competitive time frame.

Many airframes were retired early:. Comet, 747sp, A345/6, and the myriad of competition to Boeing/Lockheed/Douglas prior to Airbus. Even the 744s in passenger duty are seeing early retirement.

I'm a fan of the A380, but if you look at my posts, it was for the A389. I could detail how that failed to be or just accept production is ending. I expect no A380 flying after 2030 and probably earlier.

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SanDiegoLover
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Tue Sep 17, 2019 4:01 pm

Is there a price point where used A380s make sense for someone like DL, AA, BA, SG, LH, Scoot, etc... makes sense to snap up 20 or 30 of them and fly them? Say DL buys 25 of them to keep a fleet of 20 flying with 5 for parts. I believe last time I saw an A380 is “worth” almost $100 million. Say that price is $30 million to $50 million somewhere....would they ever make a compelling case? A new A350-1000 or 777X runs what $200 million to $235 million after discounts? That’s a huge acquisition cost delta. You gotten imagine at some point a solid business case reveals itself, no?

I would imagine you could keep 2 or 3 airframes busy just on shuttling US troops for the government if you wanted to.
 
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hOMSaR
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Tue Sep 17, 2019 4:27 pm

SanDiegoLover wrote:
Is there a price point where used A380s make sense for someone like DL, AA, BA, SG, LH, Scoot, etc... makes sense to snap up 20 or 30 of them and fly them? Say DL buys 25 of them to keep a fleet of 20 flying with 5 for parts. I believe last time I saw an A380 is “worth” almost $100 million. Say that price is $30 million to $50 million somewhere....would they ever make a compelling case? A new A350-1000 or 777X runs what $200 million to $235 million after discounts? That’s a huge acquisition cost delta. You gotten imagine at some point a solid business case reveals itself, no?

I would imagine you could keep 2 or 3 airframes busy just on shuttling US troops for the government if you wanted to.


The problem is that, apparently, the costs to refit the interior are quite high. That has stopped even existing owners from wanting to refurbish the existing fleet (see: Air France, Lufthansa ... someone I'm forgetting, maybe?), let alone acquiring second-hand frames (isn't that why BA has been reluctant to acquire any more).

The carriers you list would want to have interiors consistent with the rest of their fleet for brand image purposes, and that instantly makes the planes no longer cheap, considering that the CASM is already relatively high. So, essentially, the "price point" to make a used A380 worthwhile would have to be near 0 (and, apparently, even then, that is too much, given the early retirements from some existing carriers that already own the plane).

As for the airlines you list: DL - why would they even be on the list? What reason would they have, at all, for wanting an A380?
AA - same question.
BA - they used to claim they wanted an additional fleet of used A380s, but have been quiet about acting on recent retirements. Sounds like they've backed off.
SG (do you mean SQ?) - They've already retired a few A380s, plus they've never been one to get used widebodies, preferring to keep a relatively young fleet.
LH - They're already planning to retire at least half their existing fleet. Why would they buy used rather than just keep what they have?
Scoot - same question as DL/AA.
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lalib
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:13 pm

One of the reasons for the accelerated demise of the A380 is that it costs 30 million to refurbish it - Something is wrong with this statement!

We all agree and know that the A380 has increased operations costs since it has 4 engines compared to other WB's using 2.
Does it really cost US 30 million to refurbish a plane? I'm talking about Panels, Carpets, Seats and TV Entertainment.

A decade ago CX's ex CEO Tony Tyler said the cost of J or F seat is comparable to the price of a luxury car. Another ridiculous statement!
For arguments sake even if it costs US 15 million, divided that by 500 seats thats 30K per seat. There is no way that an economy seat on an A380 costs that much!

Airlines with all their infrastructure, technical expertise should own the companies that build the interiors.

Similar to the way that McDonalds owns the factories where the ovens, fryers even the cash registers are made.
 
TC957
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:34 pm

It's been well documented that the high refitting and refurbishing costs of an A380 is what has prevented BA from obtaining more.
 
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Finn350
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:55 pm

It is not just the seats, it is about reconfiguring plumbing, toilets, galleys and probably some cabling as each airline is using a configuration specific it.
 
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:37 pm

Finn350 wrote:
It is not just the seats, it is about reconfiguring plumbing, toilets, galleys and probably some cabling as each airline is using a configuration specific it.

Yep, back in the early days of the A380 production, Airbus spoke how each "head of class" configuration for each airline took a long time to develop because each was unique to each airline's configuration.

Note that SQ partnered with Airbus to do their interior rework.

I presume this is because Airbus itself holds the institutional knowledge on how to do this kind of work.
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QF744ER
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Re: ​Emirates begins A380 retirements to support in-service fleet

Wed Sep 18, 2019 2:51 pm

The supposedly being scrapped -EEH is currently airborne from DWC-DXB as EK2552.

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