Combine that with a basic structure that was way too heavy (for it's current length) as it was designed to be stretched to a possible 85M and I believe 650T take-off weight.
Heck at this point it will be amazing if 777X can do 50 per year long term and I highly doubt 787 will stay at 168. There is not enough demand for production at those rates.
Long term I think you will see 777X at about 30-40, 787 80-100, A350 about the same 80-100 with the A330 at about 30-40 as well before dieing off within 7-8 years.
A321LR/XLR are fragmenting the market and when NMA comes along that will most likely further reduce demand for big expensive/less flexible wide bodies.
I once flew Bombay-Kairo in a B737-800. I expect A321 Neos to replace A320s and B737-800s on the maximum possible ranges. I agree with the NMA.
That apart I believe transatlantic or Europe-Arabian Gulf... will always need passenger and cargo widebodies. Which of course doesn't contradict your fragmentation statement.
Your wide-body predictions sound reasonable.
A380 CASM is not cheap enough.
A380 CASM is about the same as 77W but with higher trip costs.
All this to get a huge plane with 77W era economics that needs very high passenger volume to make money.
An A380 is not exactly cheap. Capital costs should be significant. But I don't have any idea how many % of CASM are capital costs.
Emirate uses A380s to fly to Europe as well as to the US. While the CASM to the US is probably o.k., I doubt CASM for Europe was o.k. even when the A380 was introduced.
But are A380s for Dubai really about CASM? Those who are willing to make holidays in a desert provided it's luxurious enough may simply want an A380.
Is the airline meant to make maximum profit or meant to help bring tourists?
For all other airlines I agree with all your points.
Personally, I'm waiting to see if HYD dropping fuel taxes allows for a better Indian connecting hub. I haven't seen the growth I hoped for. Oh well, quickly off topic. What matter is more competition driving down yield and that requires a new strategy.
"Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) in India has not yet been brought under the goods and services tax (GST) regime. The central government currently charges an 11% excise duty on ATF and state-level taxes can go as high as 30%."https://qz.com/india/1657169/can-nirmal ... air-india/
As I believe high fuel taxes fuels innovation, I disagree with you. I rather think the world should follow India's lead.
I always thought Delhi would make a fabulous hub for SE Asia to Europe. Though I'm not sure if the Himalayas are in the way to reach cities in SE China.
Why don't you start a separate topic about potential hubs in India?
Those 2 A380's are too young to be retired.
Which explains my confusion. I asked the wrong questions. I guess because I assumed Emirates will always have a policy of flying young planes.
I should have rather asked myself "How comes young A380s get retired when old B747-400s are still in service?".
It just doesn't add up.
Therefore my assumption:
If planes have few cycles they can be used very long, e.g. narrow-bodies in the US vs.Europe.
If the A380 is discontinued, but Emirates wants to offer A380 luxuries even in 25 years, it's best to store young planes that are due for a heavy check for a few years.
I'm not saying they like to do it. But if they can't fill the plane and with cheap money flooding the world it's a reasonable possibility.
As monetarism says: cheap money leads to stupid investments. With normal interest rates I doubt an airline would accept new deliveries while the same type is parked because of lack of demand.