http://blueir.investproductions.com/inv ... -150020269

Daily redeye service on the A321neo begins 4/2.

Great to finally see this loaded. Good use of the neo to expand the JFK network into other vibrant VFR markets. Those aren’t prime-time JFK slot times (much like the new GYE flights), so it looks like B6 is being resourceful.

The flight down doesnt use a JFK slot at all.

Must be the reason for odd times

Ishrion wrote:

Already rumored before, right? Nice to see it materialize.

Will be interesting to see if AA responds in some way...

AA's schedule is JFK-GEO 17:40-00:26 | GEO-JFK 01:31-06:44

JetBlue's is JFK-GEO 23:55-05:58 | GEO-JFK 07:20-13:09.

This never got it's own thread, it was announced during the "Europe" announcement & got lost in the excitement of the Europe news. A solid add for B6, it fit's their model well. Some solid comments & Info.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1416799&hilit=B6+Announcement+London&start=800

IMHO, a route announcement deserves it's own thread, as each market is a bit unique.

AA is just about to start JFK-GEO using a Boeing 737-800. It's going to be interesting seeing both battle out for the Guyanese market.

Delta did JFK-GEO for a few years starting in 2008, running into 2013. There can't be room for both B6 and AA on NYC-GEO.

https://news.delta.com/delta-air-lines- ... own-guyana

What airport is GEO?

Lovely: If experience proves out, AA will leave, just as it did with JFK-Barbados. Then prices will skyrocket.

Blerg wrote:

What airport is GEO?

https://lmgtfy.com/?q=geo+airport
Guyana

AEROFAN wrote:

Lovely: If experience proves out, AA will leave, just as it did with JFK-Barbados. Then prices will skyrocket.

AA will move it to PHL. No competition at PHL. AA doesnt handle competition very well.

Ishrion wrote:

Already rumored before, right? Nice to see it materialize.

Will be interesting to see if AA responds in some way...

AA's schedule is JFK-GEO 17:40-00:26 | GEO-JFK 01:31-06:44

JetBlue's is JFK-GEO 23:55-05:58 | GEO-JFK 07:20-13:09.

AA will respond by exiting in a year. B6 has chased AA out of every other JFK VFR route. And now, the economics of A321NEO is much better than 737-800.

Although, I do think there is room for multiple carriers. There is a larger ethnic Guyanese community is NYC than Jamaican and B6 operates 4 A321s to KIN in summer time. And there is not that many transit options to GEO. This is a really underserved market.

jumbojet wrote:

AEROFAN wrote:

Lovely: If experience proves out, AA will leave, just as it did with JFK-Barbados. Then prices will skyrocket.

AA will move it to PHL. No competition at PHL. AA doesnt handle competition very well.

Also no market from PHL so I doubt that will happen. Guyana is not exactly a tourist destination. This route is all about the O&D VFR traffic in NYC.

I wonder how much the Guyanese government paid AA and the conditions of the payment... Does it have to maintain the route for 1 year, 2 years...?

These flights are not for VFR. The Guyanese diaspora in NYC is small and don't forget - Caribbean Airlines has served JFK-GEO for years.

Guyana has seen huge growth in business travel - I've flown there myself 3x in the past 2 years, including the new AA MIA flight. It's becoming a significant business travel destination with the rise in oil, gas and infrastructure planning.

With the oil and gas business starting to boom at Georgetown, especially Exxon, which has major operations in Houston, may be UA will consider starting IAH-GEO route. They already have IAH-Port of Spain.

bridge29 wrote:

These flights are not for VFR. The Guyanese diaspora in NYC is small and don't forget - Caribbean Airlines has served JFK-GEO for years.

Guyana has seen huge growth in business travel - I've flown there myself 3x in the past 2 years, including the new AA MIA flight. It's becoming a significant business travel destination with the rise in oil, gas and infrastructure planning.

Completely untrue, https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/planning/do ... apter5.pdf
Check page 18.
Guyanese community is one of the largest expat community in NY area. If you look at it, they are all concentrated in NYC vs some of the other ones that are spread to outer counties. If you look at how many A321s B6 runs to DR and Jamaica in comparison or even Haiti, this is very under served market up until very recently. The fare level was so much higher to GEO than surrounding regions when BW had it to themselves. And there is very few transit options from NY compared to other VFR routes.

NYC is by far the largest Guyanese expat community in America. Of course, I expect there to be some leisure and business demand also, but this is primarily about VFR.

American will drop this route like a hot potato after 1 season.

AEROFAN wrote:

Lovely: If experience proves out, AA will leave, just as it did with JFK-Barbados. Then prices will skyrocket.

I wouldn’t be too confident in that. AA already serves GEO once daily from MIA, I don’t think B6 does at all yet (correct me if I’m wrong). AA announced JFK-GEO in response to B6 announcement and is beating B6 by 4.5 months on the start date. People collect frequent flyer mile, points and status, and AA might just have a head start that’s going to be tough to beat.

bridge29 wrote:

These flights are not for VFR. The Guyanese diaspora in NYC is small and don't forget - Caribbean Airlines has served JFK-GEO for years.

Guyana has seen huge growth in business travel - I've flown there myself 3x in the past 2 years, including the new AA MIA flight. It's becoming a significant business travel destination with the rise in oil, gas and infrastructure planning.

VFR market in NYC-GEO is anything but small. There may be some business travel on the route I'm sure but that's definitely not the driver here. It's definitely VFR. Leisure travel is insignificant to GEO. The MIA flight gets decent business traffic because it connects well to IAH.

hohd wrote:

With the oil and gas business starting to boom at Georgetown, especially Exxon, which has major operations in Houston, may be UA will consider starting IAH-GEO route. They already have IAH-Port of Spain.

I doubt it, at least in the short term. Trinidad's oil industry is significantly more developed and mature than Guyana's. There have been ties between Houston and Trinidad going back decades at this point. This has also led to people working in the oil industry in Trinidad migrating to Houston over the years. As such, not only is there business demand between IAH-POS in both directions, there is also a notable VFR market as well. Trinidad is also a notably wealthier country than Guyana and has more outbound traffic as a result. As GEO's oil industry develops, these ties may eventually grow strong enough to sustain flights but as of now, I don't think they are there yet. This has helped AA's MIA flight tremendously as they are likely first preference for the IAH-GEO business demand that does exist. Alternatives include connecting via PTY on CM, self connecting on BW either at JFK, MIA or POS or at MIA on PY. With those options, it's easy to see why AA would get the lion's share of that traffic.

I'd agree B6 has the advantage over AA due to the nature of the market. That said, the schedules of both flights are more complementary than competitive and the market is large, so I don't see why it has to be either/or here. Time will tell.

FSDan wrote:

I'd agree B6 has the advantage over AA due to the nature of the market. That said, the schedules of both flights are more complementary than competitive and the market is large, so I don't see why it has to be either/or here. Time will tell.

The issue is it's not just those two airlines on the route. BW has been operating GEO-JFK for years and is highly unlikely to drop it. So unless either AA or B6 bow out, there will be three carriers on the route. I'm not sure it's large enough for three as any time there has been that many carriers before, someone leaves, as DL previosuly has. I actually think B6's schedule is preferable to AA's which I figure is timed that way partly to ensure that it's on the ground around the same time as the MIA flight.

BW on this route should not be underestimated. Definitely the best in-flight product. The Guyanese like their hot meals and don't wish to pay for food!

Isn’t this also an intended route for the new Eastern/Dynamic?

Really? BW with best in flight product. This is what the new A321NEO looks like in the inside.
https://thepointsguy.com/news/jetblue-airbus-a321neo/
Hard to argue that isn't the best product around given that it has the most leg room, widest seat, lower noise level than 737-800, far and away the best IFE, new seat with adjustable headrest which will help with sleeping + a mint style pantry area where you can take as much snack/drinks as you want.

And it has 4 bathrooms for Y cabin passengers vs just 2 for both AA/BW.

As for hot meals, who in their right mind is looking to get a hot air plane food on a midnight flight?

I also think the near midnight departure out of JFK actually works. This allows some visiting family to have plenty of time after work to pack, shower and eat before flying out. The near morning arrival for AA doesn't really help most people, since after a trip home, you'd normally want to rest on the day back before going to work the next day.

EA CO AS wrote:

Isn’t this also an intended route for the new Eastern/Dynamic?

I think their application to start this year got rejected.

Although, I do recall one year at T7, I saw the previous incarnation of Eastern airline flying this route near midnight and it looked like the most packed flight imaginable and everyone had a luggage.

jmdc861 wrote:

BW on this route should not be underestimated. Definitely the best in-flight product. The Guyanese like their hot meals and don't wish to pay for food!

BW has also more than been able to hold its own against B6 in POS. It’s had less success on that front in KIN. It’ll be interesting to see how GEO fares. Either way, I don’t for a second see BW dropping GEO-JFK. I think it’s clearly a core route for them.

tphuang wrote:

Ishrion wrote:

AA will respond by exiting in a year. B6 has chased AA out of every other JFK VFR route. And now, the economics of A321NEO is much better than 737-800.

Although, I do think there is room for multiple carriers. There is a larger ethnic Guyanese community is NYC than Jamaican and B6 operates 4 A321s to KIN in summer time. And there is not that many transit options to GEO. This is a really underserved market.

The Jamaican market is bigger than the Guyanese in NYC. Jamaicans are the 4th largest immigrant group with Guyanese the 5th. In addition the Jamaican identity is more durable than the Guyanese, extending well into the 2nd, and maybe even the 3rd generation. KIN attracts lower fares than does GEO and has more outbound traffic, so there is also more impulse travel, plus whatever leisure travelers might fly there, even as MBJ clearly is where most of this concentrates..

I don't see this as a 3 carrier route. Given that BW is the largest carrier out of GEO (more than 50% market share) they will remain. AA will remain on the MIA GEO so might revert to a seasonal nonstop JFK GEO (Jun-Aug) and Xmas/NY. VFR travel is highly seasonal and GEO doesn't have the leisure travel during the NY-Easter low period to offset this as do other Caribbean markets like BGI or even POS with its extensive carnival season.

Brickell305 wrote:

jmdc861 wrote:

BW on this route should not be underestimated. Definitely the best in-flight product. The Guyanese like their hot meals and don't wish to pay for food!

BW has also more than been able to hold its own against B6 in POS. It’s had less success on that front in KIN. It’ll be interesting to see how GEO fares. Either way, I don’t for a second see BW dropping GEO-JFK. I think it’s clearly a core route for them.

I agree. If BW drops GEO the next event will be its closure as POS is now quite competitive. BWs market share into GEO is even higher than it is into POS.

This will however change BW as it has been subsidizing low fares into POS (due to intense competition by the North American carriers) with high fares on its GEO routes. Clearly this will change as B6 seems already to be introducing lower fares into the market.

BWs big problem is the MAX issue as they had hoped to have new planes. B6 will arrive with new planes and superior IFE.

Yes GEO at over 5 hours does mean that meals becomes more of an issue than KIN which is just over 3 hours. Does it outweigh IFE though?

tphuang wrote:

As for hot meals, who in their right mind is looking to get a hot air plane food on a midnight flight?

I also think the near midnight departure out of JFK actually works. This allows some visiting family to have plenty of time after work to pack, shower and eat before flying out. The near morning arrival for AA doesn't really help most people, since after a trip home, you'd normally want to rest on the day back before going to work the next day.

EA CO AS wrote:

Isn’t this also an intended route for the new Eastern/Dynamic?

I think their application to start this year got rejected.

Although, I do recall one year at T7, I saw the previous incarnation of Eastern airline flying this route near midnight and it looked like the most packed flight imaginable and everyone had a luggage.

That EA issue was resolved when GY agreed to have B6 instead, which they actually wanted, so EA's complaints were a waste.

Hot meals on the northbound, which is an afternoon departure. BW does sandwich service on the southbound, which some people might well appreciate. Its baggage fees are also lower (1st bag free).

BW also offers a daily red eye southbound and currently also an early morning 3x weekly. Just understand that GEO has early morning dense fog and so that flights not infrequently has to divert to POS. Not sure how the expanded airport changes this.

Btw AA has been having some service issues which (in typical AA style) have been handled poorly. Their JFK flight schedule is less optimal for Guyanese as many don't want to arrive in GEO in the witching hours of the overnight. BWs schedule is actually the most optimal for Guyanese. B6 departure times at 730A on the northbound means leaving home at 430A. Again many don't want that if they can avoid it.

B6 however will have a better inflight product and enjoys a good reputation in the VFR so I foresee this as a BW vs. B6 as we see at POS, though in this instance with B6 having the upper hand.

There is a larger ethnic Guyanese community is NYC than Jamaican and B6 operates 4 A321s to KIN in summer time. And there is not that many transit options to GEO. This is a really underserved market.[/quote]

Although a large Guyanese population in NYC, many are now second and third generation who don’t fly back to GEO as often. By comparison, there appears to be a regular healthy movement of Jamaicans between NYC/South Florida and Jamaica.

IMHO Jet Blue will do well on this market. Don’t see it going to double daily anytime soon (as long as AA is there), but they’re popular with the Guyanese community and will do well.

caribny wrote:

Hot meals on the northbound, which is an afternoon departure. BW does sandwich service on the southbound, which some people might well appreciate. Its baggage fees are also lower (1st bag free).

BW also offers a daily red eye southbound and currently also an early morning 3x weekly. Just understand that GEO has early morning dense fog and so that flights not infrequently has to divert to POS. Not sure how the expanded airport changes this.

Btw AA has been having some service issues which (in typical AA style) have been handled poorly. Their JFK flight schedule is less optimal for Guyanese as many don't want to arrive in GEO in the witching hours of the overnight. BWs schedule is actually the most optimal for Guyanese. B6 departure times at 730A on the northbound means leaving home at 430A. Again many don't want that if they can avoid it.

B6 however will have a better inflight product and enjoys a good reputation in the VFR so I foresee this as a BW vs. B6 as we see at POS, though in this instance with B6 having the upper hand.

given the gap in fares, the baggage fee will really be not a big deal. I don't pretend to know Guayanese culture but I would imagine most people would want to eat before they get to the airport or in the airport itself if they flight out of NYC is at midnight and then sleep on the plane. For north bound, it's early enough that I would think they are just missing breakfast, which can easily be replaced by the free snacks they have in the pantry section. That pantry section is going to be very popular on the longer range flights.

On the southbound flight, AA's schedule to me seems terrible. B6's departure out of JFK seems to be well timed (enough time to work until 7 pm, go home, eat, show and get packed), better timed than BW's departure, which is 90 minutes later. And both arrival times seem fine. A little tiring, but you can go home and rest with the family. AA's departure means you'd have to miss half a day of work and then get into GEO at a really inconvenient time. I guess even more ideal would be a 9 am departure, but doesn't look like B6 wants to use such a precious slot on VFR flight. On the northbound flight, AA's time remains quite awful. Basically you would miss an entire day of work and you don't leave home until everyone goes to sleep. BW's arrival into JFK is honestly a little late, but I guess they couldn't get better timed slots. That also makes going to work next day pretty unattractive. B6 departure time is a little early. Ideally I would think 2 hours later would be pretty perfect, since that would get you in at 3 to 4 pm and allow time to get home and have dinner. But I guess the idea of keeping their precious A321NEO on the ground any longer than necessary is not attractive.

caribny wrote:

The Jamaican market is bigger than the Guyanese in NYC. Jamaicans are the 4th largest immigrant group with Guyanese the 5th. In addition the Jamaican identity is more durable than the Guyanese, extending well into the 2nd, and maybe even the 3rd generation. KIN attracts lower fares than does GEO and has more outbound traffic, so there is also more impulse travel, plus whatever leisure travelers might fly there, even as MBJ clearly is where most of this concentrates..

I don't see this as a 3 carrier route. Given that BW is the largest carrier out of GEO (more than 50% market share) they will remain. AA will remain on the MIA GEO so might revert to a seasonal nonstop JFK GEO (Jun-Aug) and Xmas/NY. VFR travel is highly seasonal and GEO doesn't have the leisure travel during the NY-Easter low period to offset this as do other Caribbean markets like BGI or even POS with its extensive carnival season.

my bad, I noticed it after I commented. I still see GEO as quite underserved up until now. Jamaicans have the option of flying into MBJ also or wide range of connection options. Isn't B6 alone running 6x to KIN in summer from JFK/FLL + 6 to 8x to MBJ from JFK/FLL/MCO?

If AA makes this seasonal, B6 will simply add a flight in summer time. That won't work either.

As for market share, look at where B6 started off at with KIN/SDQ/STI and where they are now. Given its cost structure and product and reputation in NYC, that number will climb over time.

The question is what will happen to BW once its money cow no longer makes money. It will be a huge win for B6 to force BW to back off at KIN/POS.

bridge29 wrote:

These flights are not for VFR. The Guyanese diaspora in NYC is small and don't forget - Caribbean Airlines has served JFK-GEO for years.

Guyana has seen huge growth in business travel - I've flown there myself 3x in the past 2 years, including the new AA MIA flight. It's becoming a significant business travel destination with the rise in oil, gas and infrastructure planning.

Guyana VFR in NYC is large enough. Its the 5 largest immigrant group. Much of that business travel will probably be thru MIA now that AA services that route.

tphuang wrote:

Hard to argue that isn't the best product around given that it has the most leg room, widest seat, lower noise level than 737-800, far and away the best IFE, new seat with adjustable headrest which will help with sleeping + a mint style pantry area where you can take as much snack/drinks as you want.

And it has 4 bathrooms for Y cabin passengers vs just 2 for both AA/BW.

As for hot meals, who in their right mind is looking to get a hot air plane food on a midnight flight?

.

most leg room, wrong.

Widest seat, wrong again

noise level, who cares, we aren't comparing to an old mad dog, are we?

best IFE, wrong again,

Those are all your biased, personal opinions.

adjustable headrest is nothing new to the airline industry, lots of airlines have had them for a long time.

I can get as much snack and drink also with the airline I fly. Whether it comes from a snack basket or a flight attendant doesnt matter.

Wow, you really drinking the blue cool aid.

The one indisputable thing that B6 does just about better than everyone else is delay flights, just look up the stats on that one.

You have to have more than just decent new planes to run an airline. You need employee morale, decent living wage, better working conditions, more than just east coast hubs so more than half your operation doesnt go to pot when there is bad weather and a better run operation for on time departures.

I am sure the B6 A321LR is a very nice plane but the best of everything? Hardly think so.

jumbojet wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Hard to argue that isn't the best product around given that it has the most leg room, widest seat, lower noise level than 737-800, far and away the best IFE, new seat with adjustable headrest which will help with sleeping + a mint style pantry area where you can take as much snack/drinks as you want.

And it has 4 bathrooms for Y cabin passengers vs just 2 for both AA/BW.

As for hot meals, who in their right mind is looking to get a hot air plane food on a midnight flight?

.

most leg room, wrong.

Widest seat, wrong again

noise level, who cares, we aren't comparing to an old mad dog, are we?

best IFE, wrong again,

Those are all your biased, personal opinions.

adjustable headrest is nothing new to the airline industry, lots of airlines have had them for a long time.

I can get as much snack and drink also with the airline I fly. Whether it comes from a snack basket or a flight attendant doesnt matter.

Wow, you really drinking the blue cool aid.

The one indisputable thing that B6 does just about better than everyone else is delay flights, just look up the stats on that one.

You have to have more than just decent new planes to run an airline. You need employee morale, decent living wage, better working conditions, more than just east coast hubs so more than half your operation doesnt go to pot when there is bad weather and a better run operation for on time departures.

Comparing the three products on the route, B6 does have the best seat width. As far as pitch, their core pitch beats AA's economy and is equal to BW's Y. Their Y+ is better than BW's. Not subscribing to the blue kool aid, but competitively it is probably the best hard product.

alasizon wrote:

jumbojet wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Hard to argue that isn't the best product around given that it has the most leg room, widest seat, lower noise level than 737-800, far and away the best IFE, new seat with adjustable headrest which will help with sleeping + a mint style pantry area where you can take as much snack/drinks as you want.

And it has 4 bathrooms for Y cabin passengers vs just 2 for both AA/BW.

As for hot meals, who in their right mind is looking to get a hot air plane food on a midnight flight?

.

most leg room, wrong.

Widest seat, wrong again

noise level, who cares, we aren't comparing to an old mad dog, are we?

best IFE, wrong again,

Those are all your biased, personal opinions.

adjustable headrest is nothing new to the airline industry, lots of airlines have had them for a long time.

I can get as much snack and drink also with the airline I fly. Whether it comes from a snack basket or a flight attendant doesnt matter.

Wow, you really drinking the blue cool aid.

The one indisputable thing that B6 does just about better than everyone else is delay flights, just look up the stats on that one.

You have to have more than just decent new planes to run an airline. You need employee morale, decent living wage, better working conditions, more than just east coast hubs so more than half your operation doesnt go to pot when there is bad weather and a better run operation for on time departures.

Comparing the three products on the route, B6 does have the best seat width. As far as pitch, their core pitch beats AA's economy and is equal to BW's Y. Their Y+ is better than BW's. Not subscribing to the blue kool aid, but competitively it is probably the best hard product.

maybe on that particular route but look who your comparing against, AA. If you compare outside of this route, Tphaung is wrong.

Discuss the topic and not other users. Keep discussion civil. Read the forum rules if in doubt.

jumbojet wrote:

alasizon wrote:

jumbojet wrote:

most leg room, wrong.

Widest seat, wrong again

noise level, who cares, we aren't comparing to an old mad dog, are we?

best IFE, wrong again,

Those are all your biased, personal opinions.

adjustable headrest is nothing new to the airline industry, lots of airlines have had them for a long time.

I can get as much snack and drink also with the airline I fly. Whether it comes from a snack basket or a flight attendant doesnt matter.

Wow, you really drinking the blue cool aid.

The one indisputable thing that B6 does just about better than everyone else is delay flights, just look up the stats on that one.

You have to have more than just decent new planes to run an airline. You need employee morale, decent living wage, better working conditions, more than just east coast hubs so more than half your operation doesnt go to pot when there is bad weather and a better run operation for on time departures.

Comparing the three products on the route, B6 does have the best seat width. As far as pitch, their core pitch beats AA's economy and is equal to BW's Y. Their Y+ is better than BW's. Not subscribing to the blue kool aid, but competitively it is probably the best hard product.

maybe on that particular route but look who your comparing against, AA. If you compare outside of this route, Tphaung is wrong.

Even if you compare against DL (738 or 321) or UA (738/739), the B6 pitch is still better as is the seat width when competing against any 737 based product.

alasizon wrote:

jumbojet wrote:

alasizon wrote:

Comparing the three products on the route, B6 does have the best seat width. As far as pitch, their core pitch beats AA's economy and is equal to BW's Y. Their Y+ is better than BW's. Not subscribing to the blue kool aid, but competitively it is probably the best hard product.

maybe on that particular route but look who your comparing against, AA. If you compare outside of this route, Tphaung is wrong.

Even if you compare against DL (738 or 321) or UA (738/739), the B6 pitch is still better as is the seat width when competing against any 737 based product.

ok but it gets very tiring, every thread on this forum, nearly every topic eventually winds up with the same post; how the B6 A321LR, how far superior in every aspect it is to everything else out there...gets kinda long in the tooth. I get it, its a very nice plane but its not the best in every single category. Maybe the individual who claims it is should start by saying, in my opinion.... There are some features on airline 'X', 'Y' and 'Z' that might have better features than the B6 A321LR and V/V but come on, lets come down to earth here a little bit.

And, why do we find ourselves comparing to DL again? DL has a lot more planes in its fleet than just 738 and A321.

jumbojet wrote:

alasizon wrote:

jumbojet wrote:

maybe on that particular route but look who your comparing against, AA. If you compare outside of this route, Tphaung is wrong.

Even if you compare against DL (738 or 321) or UA (738/739), the B6 pitch is still better as is the seat width when competing against any 737 based product.

ok but it gets very tiring, every thread on this forum, nearly every topic eventually winds up with the same post; how the B6 A321LR, how far superior in every aspect it is to everything else out there...gets kinda long in the tooth. I get it, its a very nice plane but its not the best in every single category. Maybe the individual who claims it is should start by saying, in my opinion.... There are some features on airline 'X', 'Y' and 'Z' that might have better features than the B6 A321LR and V/V but come on, lets come down to earth here a little bit.

And, why do we find ourselves comparing to DL again? DL has a lot more planes in its fleet than just 738 and A321.

You will see that the post I created had nothing to do with DL. I don't know why you dragged them in here. It was about BW product vs B6 as a response to a previous post. I don't know why that would get you so upset.

Can we please get back to JFK-GEO?

tphuang wrote:

caribny wrote:

Hot meals on the northbound, which is an afternoon departure. BW does sandwich service on the southbound, which some people might well appreciate. Its baggage fees are also lower (1st bag free).

BW also offers a daily red eye southbound and currently also an early morning 3x weekly. Just understand that GEO has early morning dense fog and so that flights not infrequently has to divert to POS. Not sure how the expanded airport changes this.

Btw AA has been having some service issues which (in typical AA style) have been handled poorly. Their JFK flight schedule is less optimal for Guyanese as many don't want to arrive in GEO in the witching hours of the overnight. BWs schedule is actually the most optimal for Guyanese. B6 departure times at 730A on the northbound means leaving home at 430A. Again many don't want that if they can avoid it.

B6 however will have a better inflight product and enjoys a good reputation in the VFR so I foresee this as a BW vs. B6 as we see at POS, though in this instance with B6 having the upper hand.

given the gap in fares, the baggage fee will really be not a big deal. I don't pretend to know Guayanese culture but I would imagine most people would want to eat before they get to the airport or in the airport itself if they flight out of NYC is at midnight and then sleep on the plane. For north bound, it's early enough that I would think they are just missing breakfast, which can easily be replaced by the free snacks they have in the pantry section. That pantry section is going to be very popular on the longer range flights.

On the southbound flight, AA's schedule to me seems terrible. B6's departure out of JFK seems to be well timed (enough time to work until 7 pm, go home, eat, show and get packed), better timed than BW's departure, which is 90 minutes later. And both arrival times seem fine. A little tiring, but you can go home and rest with the family. AA's departure means you'd have to miss half a day of work and then get into GEO at a really inconvenient time. I guess even more ideal would be a 9 am departure, but doesn't look like B6 wants to use such a precious slot on VFR flight. On the northbound flight, AA's time remains quite awful. Basically you would miss an entire day of work and you don't leave home until everyone goes to sleep. BW's arrival into JFK is honestly a little late, but I guess they couldn't get better timed slots. That also makes going to work next day pretty unattractive. B6 departure time is a little early. Ideally I would think 2 hours later would be pretty perfect, since that would get you in at 3 to 4 pm and allow time to get home and have dinner. But I guess the idea of keeping their precious A321NEO on the ground any longer than necessary is not attractive.

caribny wrote:

The Jamaican market is bigger than the Guyanese in NYC. Jamaicans are the 4th largest immigrant group with Guyanese the 5th. In addition the Jamaican identity is more durable than the Guyanese, extending well into the 2nd, and maybe even the 3rd generation. KIN attracts lower fares than does GEO and has more outbound traffic, so there is also more impulse travel, plus whatever leisure travelers might fly there, even as MBJ clearly is where most of this concentrates..

I don't see this as a 3 carrier route. Given that BW is the largest carrier out of GEO (more than 50% market share) they will remain. AA will remain on the MIA GEO so might revert to a seasonal nonstop JFK GEO (Jun-Aug) and Xmas/NY. VFR travel is highly seasonal and GEO doesn't have the leisure travel during the NY-Easter low period to offset this as do other Caribbean markets like BGI or even POS with its extensive carnival season.

my bad, I noticed it after I commented. I still see GEO as quite underserved up until now. Jamaicans have the option of flying into MBJ also or wide range of connection options. Isn't B6 alone running 6x to KIN in summer from JFK/FLL + 6 to 8x to MBJ from JFK/FLL/MCO?

If AA makes this seasonal, B6 will simply add a flight in summer time. That won't work either.

As for market share, look at where B6 started off at with KIN/SDQ/STI and where they are now. Given its cost structure and product and reputation in NYC, that number will climb over time.

The question is what will happen to BW once its money cow no longer makes money. It will be a huge win for B6 to force BW to back off at KIN/POS.

BW may back off in KIN-FLL/JFK. Although, I don't see them doing that as they are already at minimal levels of service there and I suspect that as long as the Jamaican government has any stake at all in the airline, KIN will remain a hub and those two routes will remain with it. Regarding POS, they're not backing off there and have absolutely no reason to. They have the highest market share on POS-NYC and that's unlikely to change any time soon. On POS-So. Fla, they are the market share leaders on POS-FLL. B6 has had to cut back on that route and at present does not even offer daily flights during Carnival when seats to POS practically fill themselves. On POS-MIA, they've held their own against AA for years maintaining their daily flight even when AA flew widebodies on the route and now ups frequency to 3x daily during peak season. The day BW scales back significantly on POS-JFK/MIA is the day it's time to stick a fork in it because it will be done.

tphuang wrote:

As for hot meals, who in their right mind is looking to get a hot air plane food on a midnight flight?

You say that because you´re used to lame AA food. I can tell you, i do enjoy A LOT, AV's food on the MDE/JFK flights at midnight. That food lets me sleep tight at night.

airfrancejfk wrote:

There is a larger ethnic Guyanese community is NYC than Jamaican and B6 operates 4 A321s to KIN in summer time. And there is not that many transit options to GEO. This is a really underserved market.

Although a large Guyanese population in NYC, many are now second and third generation who don’t fly back to GEO as often. By comparison, there appears to be a regular healthy movement of Jamaicans between NYC/South Florida and Jamaica.

IMHO Jet Blue will do well on this market. Don’t see it going to double daily anytime soon (as long as AA is there), but they’re popular with the Guyanese community and will do well.[/quote]

A problem with census numbers for Caribbean immigrant groups is that there is no box marked "Caribbean" so these populations are greatly underestimated. The West Indian Labor Day event is the largest ethnic "parade" in NYC. The issue here is that immigration by Jamaicans into NYC is older than for Guyanese and so more Jamaicans will be excluded from the immigrant totals. Based on accents that I hear in NYC it does appear that the Jamaican population far exceeds that of other English Caribbean groups and in fact census data ranks Jamaicans as the 4th ahead of Guyanese which rank 5 in NYC.

You are very correct that the power BRAND Jamaican (Usain, reggae, tourism, etc.) means that the kids and grandkids of the immigrant generation maintain a much stronger connection than do Guyanese, so VFR travel extends well into those generations. The JFK GEO is underserved with only BW currently on this route. AA will start this December and B6 next April. At that point this route will be over served. Aside from Xmas/NY, Easter and Jun/Aug this is a 2 airline route.

B6 will definitely be the market leader, and in fact some already use them to POS and then switch to LIAT into Guyana. BW should come 2nd and I see AA being only seasonal, routing others over its MIA hub outside of this period.

I just want to point out that B6 manages to have 2 A321s on JFK-PAP despite Haitian and Guyanese community have similar population sizes in NYC. I'd imagine there'd be more demand to GEO than PAP due to higher income level, possibly some more leisure demand. And also, JFK-PAP already loses some traffic to connection options via Florida, which JFK-GEO doesn't have to be concerned about. I think the lower fares will simply stimulate more traffic and a lot more people will no longer need to go JFK-POS-GEO or JFK-MIA-GEO.

From that perspective, seems to me that BW's JFK-POS route will be hurt by more non-stop capacity on JFK-GEO. At the end, losing a profitable route like JFK-GEO is going to make it harder for BW to sustain other money losing routes.

tphuang wrote:

I just want to point out that B6 manages to have 2 A321s on JFK-PAP despite Haitian and Guyanese community have similar population sizes in NYC. I'd imagine there'd be more demand to GEO than PAP due to higher income level, possibly some more leisure demand. And also, JFK-PAP already loses some traffic to connection options via Florida, which JFK-GEO doesn't have to be concerned about. I think the lower fares will simply stimulate more traffic and a lot more people will no longer need to go JFK-POS-GEO or JFK-MIA-GEO.

From that perspective, seems to me that BW's JFK-POS route will be hurt by more non-stop capacity on JFK-GEO. At the end, losing a profitable route like JFK-GEO is going to make it harder for BW to sustain other money losing routes.

Leisure demand to GEO is insignificant. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were more to PAP as there are parts of Haiti, like Jacmel, that actually have some tourist appeal.

BW will do a lot of things but it will definitely not cut back significantly on its POS-NYC routes unless it’s about to go out of business. It’s a state owned airline whose entire raison d’être is to serve demand to/from Trinidad. POS-JFK is a core route. It’s going nowhere. I also don’t see them leaving JFK-GEO as that has also become a vital route for them.

If BW is willing to withstand the heat it faces on its KIN-USA routes, they’ll definitely stick around on the POS-USA routes til the very end.

tphuang wrote:

I just want to point out that B6 manages to have 2 A321s on JFK-PAP despite Haitian and Guyanese community have similar population sizes in NYC. I'd imagine there'd be more demand to GEO than PAP due to higher income level, possibly some more leisure demand. And also, JFK-PAP already loses some traffic to connection options via Florida, which JFK-GEO doesn't have to be concerned about. I think the lower fares will simply stimulate more traffic and a lot more people will no longer need to go JFK-POS-GEO or JFK-MIA-GEO.

From that perspective, seems to me that BW's JFK-POS route will be hurt by more non-stop capacity on JFK-GEO. At the end, losing a profitable route like JFK-GEO is going to make it harder for BW to sustain other money losing routes.

Not sure where income comes in as most travel out of JFK to the Caribbean originates from the USA. Haiti also has a much larger population so its lower per capita income is offset. B6 has the only nonstops from the NY to Haiti.

Not sure how much BW GEO bound travel goes thru POS these days now that CM offers service via PTY and AA via MIA. If anything the arrival of B6 will first impact CM as they provide added capacity for the more price sensitive. BW has about 60% market share on the JFK POS and that has stabilized. In fact B6 has cut back capacity on the FLL POS route.

You are correct that lower profitability might impact BWs route structure. This might more likely lead to an exit om the North America Jamaica routes though. BW is top dog over B6 into POS.

What you forget is that BW provides a Caribbean ambience that B6 can never replicate and its likely that a good share of POS bound passengers like that. Maybe more GEO passengers than you might think.

As to meal service. Not sure that Caribbean people go for the B6 snacks as an incentive, especially for breakfast. What they have on offer are the wider seats and the better IFE. Not sure what BW will have if/when the MAX issue is resolved. They had planned to introduce that aircraft by now had the problem not emerged. A meal is definitely am incentive on the northbound from GEO. When you add 1 hour to the airport, 2 hours plus at the airport and almost 6 hours to JFK a meal does help.

A few inaccuracies. Although the Guyanese in NYC are 2nd and 3rd gen, they do travel regularly to Guyana. They are American enough not to worry about hot meals, more so than the older gen, so the complaints will be from the older folks. Price is key to Guyanese VFR, then the next priority is luggage, so if BW works out better with 2 suitcases then BW will sell the seat. Tourism is growing in Guyana, so there will be business there. There is Exxon, Hess, Cnooc, Repsol, Total, SBM, Schlumberger, Halliburton, Eco Atlantic, Kuwait Oil and more here. Therefore business travel is up and not only from MIA. There were more offshore rig days in Guyana than Trinidad for the first half of 2019.

In addition, I do not believe B6 nor AA are counting on VFR alone in the long term. Guyanese residents may have more disposable income in the long term.

Most recent full year visitor arrivals number for Guyana here: https://www.guyanatourism.com/wp-conten ... t-2018.pdf

As can be seen, US arrivals are up 8.3% but that’s primarily due to gains made from Texas (up 54.8%) and Florida (up 24.5%). Effects of AA’s MIA flight I presume. Arrivals from New York were largely flat, increasing only 1.6%.

Also note that visitor arrivals here doesn’t mean leisure tourist. These are business, VFR, leisure, etc. numbers all combined. They even show arrivals from the US by country of birth and the overwhelming majority (71%) of arrivals from the US are people who were born in Guyana. I highly suspect a large chunk of the not born in Guyana contingent are American born people of Guyanese descent.

The US market is clearly still a very heavily VFR one.

Trans Guyana Airways just started an OGL-PBM Sundays and Mondays to connect with KLM’s PBM-AMS. Equipment is their Beechcraft 1900D. They are touting a 12 hour OGL-AMS.

Brickell305 wrote:

Most recent full year visitor arrivals number for Guyana here: https://www.guyanatourism.com/wp-conten ... t-2018.pdf

As can be seen, US arrivals are up 8.3% but that’s primarily due to gains made from Texas (up 54.8%) and Florida (up 24.5%). Effects of AA’s MIA flight I presume. Arrivals from New York were largely flat, increasing only 1.6%.

Also note that visitor arrivals here doesn’t mean leisure tourist. These are business, VFR, leisure, etc. numbers all combined. They even show arrivals from the US by country of birth and the overwhelming majority (71%) of arrivals from the US are people who were born in Guyana. I highly suspect a large chunk of the not born in Guyana contingent are American born people of Guyanese descent.

The US market is clearly still a very heavily VFR one.

I’ve seen a few Trans Guyana Airways and Roraima Airways OGL-POS/GEO-POS to coincide with UAs Houston-POS flight. Not sure if it’s a coincidence or they are shuttling oil workers.

GUYAIR707 wrote:

Brickell305 wrote:

Most recent full year visitor arrivals number for Guyana here: https://www.guyanatourism.com/wp-conten ... t-2018.pdf

As can be seen, US arrivals are up 8.3% but that’s primarily due to gains made from Texas (up 54.8%) and Florida (up 24.5%). Effects of AA’s MIA flight I presume. Arrivals from New York were largely flat, increasing only 1.6%.

Also note that visitor arrivals here doesn’t mean leisure tourist. These are business, VFR, leisure, etc. numbers all combined. They even show arrivals from the US by country of birth and the overwhelming majority (71%) of arrivals from the US are people who were born in Guyana. I highly suspect a large chunk of the not born in Guyana contingent are American born people of Guyanese descent.

The US market is clearly still a very heavily VFR one.

I’ve seen a few Trans Guyana Airways and Roraima Airways OGL-POS/GEO-POS to coincide with UAs Houston-POS flight. Not sure if it’s a coincidence or they are shuttling oil workers.

Haven't posted here in a while, however, just thought I'd validate your assumptions GUYAIR707. It's no coincidence. The TGY B1900D connects with the UA IAH-POS flight to shuttle Exxon and contractor employees straight to OGL. Originally, it was a 3x weekly OGL-POS service, however, it has now changed to an ad-hoc flight with AA's GEO presence now.

The new OGL-PBM flight is also heavily energy influenced. Most, if not all pax thus far are Indian oil professionals that have connected through AMS with KL. It's the quickest way to get these folks on to the rigs as operations ramp up exponentially.

BW424 wrote:

GUYAIR707 wrote:

Brickell305 wrote:

Most recent full year visitor arrivals number for Guyana here: https://www.guyanatourism.com/wp-conten ... t-2018.pdf

As can be seen, US arrivals are up 8.3% but that’s primarily due to gains made from Texas (up 54.8%) and Florida (up 24.5%). Effects of AA’s MIA flight I presume. Arrivals from New York were largely flat, increasing only 1.6%.

Also note that visitor arrivals here doesn’t mean leisure tourist. These are business, VFR, leisure, etc. numbers all combined. They even show arrivals from the US by country of birth and the overwhelming majority (71%) of arrivals from the US are people who were born in Guyana. I highly suspect a large chunk of the not born in Guyana contingent are American born people of Guyanese descent.

The US market is clearly still a very heavily VFR one.

I’ve seen a few Trans Guyana Airways and Roraima Airways OGL-POS/GEO-POS to coincide with UAs Houston-POS flight. Not sure if it’s a coincidence or they are shuttling oil workers.

Haven't posted here in a while, however, just thought I'd validate your assumptions GUYAIR707. It's no coincidence. The TGY B1900D connects with the UA IAH-POS flight to shuttle Exxon and contractor employees straight to OGL. Originally, it was a 3x weekly OGL-POS service, however, it has now changed to an ad-hoc flight with AA's GEO presence now.

The new OGL-PBM flight is also heavily energy influenced. Most, if not all pax thus far are Indian oil professionals that have connected through AMS with KL. It's the quickest way to get these folks on to the rigs as operations ramp up exponentially.

Great thanx, clears that up.