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LAXintl
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Cathay Pacific to cut capacity

Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:01 pm

Unfortunately looks like the fallout from events in Hong Kong are taking increasing toll on CX.


Cathay Pacific Airways said on Wednesday it would cut capacity for the upcoming winter season after reporting an overall 11.3% fall in passenger numbers for August as anti-government protests in Hong Kong hit demand. The airline said inbound traffic to Hong Kong in August had fallen by 38% compared with the previous year, and it did not anticipate September would be any less difficult. The load factor fell by 7.2 percentage points to 79.9% in August, Cathay said. The amount of cargo carried fell by 14% amid a weaker global market and disruptions at Hong Kong airport.

“Given the current significant decline in forward bookings for the remainder of the year, we will make some tactical measures such as capacity realignments,” Cathay Chief Customer and Commercial Officer Ronald Lam said in a statement. “Specifically, we are reducing our capacity growth such that it will be slightly down year-on-year for the 2019 winter season (from end October 2019 to end March 2020) versus our original growth plan of more than 6% for the period.”

Cathay said on Wednesday demand for premium class travel had fallen more significantly than for leisure travel, with demand from mainland China and Northeast Asia particularly severely hit.


Cathay Pacific to cut capacity as demand for Hong Kong travel falls
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cath ... SKCN1VW0ZB

=

6%+ capacity cut is a pretty major move for an airline.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
airzona11
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Re: Cathay Pacific to cut capacity

Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:06 pm

O&D, certainly from tourism taking a hit. Plus as a connecting hub, passengers have other options. Agreed this is substantial.
 
BlatantEcho
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Joined: Wed Sep 27, 2000 10:11 am

Re: Cathay Pacific to cut capacity

Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:16 pm

^^^
Interesting. Have two trips to Hong Kong coming up for tourism/fun.

Haven’t had a single concern or thought once about not going. It’s interesting what scares people these days - or, perhaps, let’s them justify their own fears.
Love the city and the food, can’t wait to go back.
 
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mercure1
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Re: Cathay Pacific to cut capacity

Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:18 pm

Besides those cancelling visits to HKG, I bet many(especially business clients) are avoiding booking CX entirely as transiting HKG airport is a gamble.
mercure f-wtcc
 
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UPlog
Posts: 386
Joined: Sat Jan 27, 2018 5:45 am

Re: Cathay Pacific to cut capacity

Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:26 pm

BlatantEcho wrote:
^^^
Interesting. Have two trips to Hong Kong coming up for tourism/fun.

Haven’t had a single concern or thought once about not going. It’s interesting what scares people these days - or, perhaps, let’s them justify their own fears.
Love the city and the food, can’t wait to go back.


Don't believe people are too worried about their personal safety, though there is certainly increased hassle factor and chance of travel disruption which is putting people off.

Heck at my airline, crews are increasingly bidding to avoid HKG trips as the chance of having your trips distributed and your entire month's schedule being thrown into havoc is not something some want to add to already unpredictable life. I don't blame them.
 
TC957
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Re: Cathay Pacific to cut capacity

Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:29 pm

I just checked LHR - HKG availability for the next few days on Galileo and most flights are wide open for bookings, only a few premium cabins sold out on a few flights. So they can start by chopping 2 of their LHR flights to start with. Might make more money leasing out the slots over the winter.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Cathay Pacific to cut capacity

Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:35 pm

mercure1 wrote:
Besides those cancelling visits to HKG, I bet many(especially business clients) are avoiding booking CX entirely as transiting HKG airport is a gamble.


Yes and it surprises me that CX isn't even trying.
I have a trip from Europe to Asia coming up and CX was not even the cheapest option except for a very specific set of parameters.

I was already put off by the thought of issues with my connection and possible delays at arrival, but would have considered them if they at least tried to offer a good deal.

Yes there are a few promo's but CX management is being too passive and this is what is showing in the traffic numbers IMO.
 
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janders
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Re: Cathay Pacific to cut capacity

Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:57 pm

Routesonline reporting IAD is reduced to 4x weekly and YVR is reduced from 16 to 13 weekly effective Oct 29th.
"We make war that we may live in peace." -- Aristotle
 
jasoncrh
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Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2005 10:29 pm

Re: Cathay Pacific to cut capacity

Wed Sep 11, 2019 6:19 pm

can you please post a link? i've looked and cannot find that.


janders wrote:
Routesonline reporting IAD is reduced to 4x weekly and YVR is reduced from 16 to 13 weekly effective Oct 29th.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: Cathay Pacific to cut capacity

Wed Sep 11, 2019 6:27 pm

@airlineroute twitter also says JFK nonstops reduced from 21 to 18 weekly for W19/20
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
Lufthansa
Posts: 2583
Joined: Thu May 20, 1999 6:04 am

Re: Cathay Pacific to cut capacity

Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:00 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
mercure1 wrote:
Besides those cancelling visits to HKG, I bet many(especially business clients) are avoiding booking CX entirely as transiting HKG airport is a gamble.


Yes and it surprises me that CX isn't even trying.
I have a trip from Europe to Asia coming up and CX was not even the cheapest option except for a very specific set of parameters.

I was already put off by the thought of issues with my connection and possible delays at arrival, but would have considered them if they at least tried to offer a good deal.

Yes there are a few promo's but CX management is being too passive and this is what is showing in the traffic numbers IMO.


The prices atm are unbelievable and certainly way below the operating costs. I priced BNE HKG return the other day and it came back at
AUD360 bucks! Thats about USD290. And even the connections. Singapore came in at $1400 for business class BNE-SIN-HKG return on the
a 350 with the new seating. For those of you in the Americas BNE-HKG is about an 8.5 hr flight, similar to something like ORD-FRA.
This is clearly not sustainable. Cathay have moved into, try and protect the brand mode and minimise losses rather than make a
profit and thrive. This is not a good place to be, and politically, they won't care if Cathay goes under. We are very much
in uncharted waters here and it's not good.
 
ScottB
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Re: Cathay Pacific to cut capacity

Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:22 pm

UPlog wrote:
Don't believe people are too worried about their personal safety, though there is certainly increased hassle factor and chance of travel disruption which is putting people off.


Oh, I'd expect that corporate travel/security departments are quite concerned about sending employees to Hong Kong. Not so much that they think that staff have much to worry about from protestors or the HK police, apart from potential travel disruptions as we've seen already. Rather, the saber-rattling from Beijing with military "training exercises" in the Pearl River Delta region should be a significant concern -- you don't want to try to evacuate employees from Hong Kong in the event of a 1989-style crackdown on protestors there.
 
marcogr12
Posts: 233
Joined: Sun Mar 04, 2018 2:36 pm

Re: Cathay Pacific to cut capacity

Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:36 pm

Maybe Cathay should transfer some of its flights to Dragon that has smaller capacity planes until demand is up again..
Flying is breathing..no planes no life..
 
eamondzhang
Posts: 1306
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 8:23 am

Re: Cathay Pacific to cut capacity

Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:50 pm

marcogr12 wrote:
Maybe Cathay should transfer some of its flights to Dragon that has smaller capacity planes until demand is up again..

There's only so many planes at KA and they're already stretched to a point they frequently wet-lease CX planes to cover their flights.

Although KA could also start cancelling a few flights especially the 18x daily HKG-SHA/PVG runs....

Michael
 
jcwr56
Posts: 910
Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2012 11:36 am

Re: Cathay Pacific to cut capacity

Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:01 pm

I was looking at ORD-HKG-BNE on CX in November and J was still coming in around $6000 USD. Economy was around $1400RT.

Looking at BR, business was the same but back of plane was around $1000 RT.

Incentives would go a long way to pull people back.
 
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LAXintl
Topic Author
Posts: 23735
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Re: Cathay Pacific to cut capacity

Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:15 pm

Per SCMP CX will implement the following measures:

- Delaying non-critical spend
- Halting hiring on non-flying staff
- Expenditure Control Committee formed

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/pol ... travelling
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
blandy62
Posts: 213
Joined: Tue Jul 12, 2016 12:47 am

Re: Cathay Pacific to cut capacity

Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:28 pm

mercure1 wrote:
Besides those cancelling visits to HKG, I bet many(especially business clients) are avoiding booking CX entirely as transiting HKG airport is a gamble.

Yes I can see that some business people heading to some
Areas in Guangdong are now flying to CAN or SZX instead of flying to HKG and spend the night in HongKong
 
itisi
Posts: 267
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2016 12:37 pm

Re: Cathay Pacific to cut capacity

Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:38 pm

mercure1 wrote:
Besides those cancelling visits to HKG, I bet many(especially business clients) are avoiding booking CX entirely as transiting HKG airport is a gamble.


Nope, the riots and protests have no done anything to stop flights. No more than a typhoon.
737-300/400/500 ... are NOT classics :)
 
itisi
Posts: 267
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2016 12:37 pm

Re: Cathay Pacific to cut capacity

Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:39 pm

marcogr12 wrote:
Maybe Cathay should transfer some of its flights to Dragon that has smaller capacity planes until demand is up again..


Biggest part of the Cathay Dragon n fleet is the A330.
737-300/400/500 ... are NOT classics :)
 
itisi
Posts: 267
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2016 12:37 pm

Re: Cathay Pacific to cut capacity

Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:43 pm

Lufthansa wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
mercure1 wrote:
Besides those cancelling visits to HKG, I bet many(especially business clients) are avoiding booking CX entirely as transiting HKG airport is a gamble.


Yes and it surprises me that CX isn't even trying.
I have a trip from Europe to Asia coming up and CX was not even the cheapest option except for a very specific set of parameters.

I was already put off by the thought of issues with my connection and possible delays at arrival, but would have considered them if they at least tried to offer a good deal.

Yes there are a few promo's but CX management is being too passive and this is what is showing in the traffic numbers IMO.


The prices atm are unbelievable and certainly way below the operating costs. I priced BNE HKG return the other day and it came back at
AUD360 bucks! Thats about USD290. And even the connections. Singapore came in at $1400 for business class BNE-SIN-HKG return on the
a 350 with the new seating. For those of you in the Americas BNE-HKG is about an 8.5 hr flight, similar to something like ORD-FRA.
This is clearly not sustainable. Cathay have moved into, try and protect the brand mode and minimise losses rather than make a
profit and thrive. This is not a good place to be, and politically, they won't care if Cathay goes under. We are very much
in uncharted waters here and it's not good.


The goal is to wreck Hong Kong.... Hotels, restaurants, theme parks, shops, train network, airport, airlines and the general public. So far.... it's working well :banghead:
737-300/400/500 ... are NOT classics :)
 
dcajet
Posts: 4036
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2004 9:31 am

Re: Cathay Pacific to cut capacity

Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:47 am

HKG-Dublin suspended for the 2019-20 winter.

https://www.ittn.ie/news/cathay-pacific ... om-dublin/
"Unattended children will be given espresso and a free kitten"
 
tphuang
Posts: 3110
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Cathay Pacific to cut capacity

Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:03 am

itisi wrote:
mercure1 wrote:
Besides those cancelling visits to HKG, I bet many(especially business clients) are avoiding booking CX entirely as transiting HKG airport is a gamble.


Nope, the riots and protests have no done anything to stop flights. No more than a typhoon.

perceptions matter a lot.
 
Ziyulu
Posts: 621
Joined: Thu Oct 13, 2016 10:35 am

Re: Cathay Pacific to cut capacity

Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:25 am

Does this mean they will hold off on the 3-4-3 economy class seating on the 777?
 
hz747300
Posts: 2368
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2004 11:38 pm

Re: Cathay Pacific to cut capacity

Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:45 am

BlatantEcho wrote:
^^^
Interesting. Have two trips to Hong Kong coming up for tourism/fun.

Haven’t had a single concern or thought once about not going. It’s interesting what scares people these days - or, perhaps, let’s them justify their own fears.
Love the city and the food, can’t wait to go back.


Scared is a bit strong. I live here, and certainly if you have other options why not go to Singapore, Taipei, or Bangkok instead? Since the bill's withdrawal, it has certainly calmed down, but even last week Central Station was set fire too. Imagine staying in a hotel in Central, and you are more or less confined to your hotel for the weekend. If you are staying in other areas, it's mostly fine.

Rather than being scared, I would say why would you want to bother with it if you have other options? Especially if it's a holiday.

A shame, the protesters are ruining their own city more than almost anything else would have.
Keep on truckin'...
 
Cunard
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Joined: Fri Nov 11, 2016 6:45 pm

Re: Cathay Pacific to cut capacity

Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:46 am

tphuang wrote:
itisi wrote:
mercure1 wrote:
Besides those cancelling visits to HKG, I bet many(especially business clients) are avoiding booking CX entirely as transiting HKG airport is a gamble.


Nope, the riots and protests have no done anything to stop flights. No more than a typhoon.

perceptions matter a lot.


Exactly and weren't flights suspended and some flights diverted due to protesters overrunning the terminal!

Even a typhoon doesn't overrun the terminal in the way that the protesters have done so to mention that the riots and protest's have ''no'' or nothing to stop flights is ridiculous as the whole situation has obviously affected flights along with the reputation of Hong Kong and it's having a detrimental effect on it's economy as seen by these recent cuts in capacity at CX.

I for one hope that Hong Kong along with CX recover very soon from the current situation and as much as I sympathize with the protesters requests I do feel for the future of Hong Kong on the global stage. Hong Kong is without any doubt one of my favourite places on earth and it saddens me to see what is happening there.
94 Countries, 327 Destinations Worldwide, 32 Airlines, 29 Aircraft Types, 182 Airports, 335 Flights.
 
LHUSA
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Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 10:15 am

Re: Cathay Pacific to cut capacity

Thu Sep 12, 2019 2:24 am

I’m wondering how much longer CX will last at IAD. I think it’s telling it was one of the first routes to be reduced. The -1000 never made sense to me, so much capacity for a new market (isn’t it CX’s longest route?). Does anyone have any load info for that route? Anecdotally I’ve heard of some very empty flights (pre riots).
 
jasoncrh
Posts: 710
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2005 10:29 pm

Re: Cathay Pacific to cut capacity

Thu Sep 12, 2019 2:40 am

T100 showed load factors on Dulles in the mid/ upper 80% range for most of this year. June was approximately 90%. I haven’t checked July yet but can check from work tomorrow. The flights aren’t spry, the question is the fare.

LHUSA wrote:
I’m wondering how much longer CX will last at IAD. I think it’s telling it was one of the first routes to be reduced. The -1000 never made sense to me, so much capacity for a new market (isn’t it CX’s longest route?). Does anyone have any load info for that route? Anecdotally I’ve heard of some very empty flights (pre riots).
 
eamondzhang
Posts: 1306
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 8:23 am

Re: Cathay Pacific to cut capacity

Thu Sep 12, 2019 3:02 am

jasoncrh wrote:
T100 showed load factors on Dulles in the mid/ upper 80% range for most of this year. June was approximately 90%. I haven’t checked July yet but can check from work tomorrow. The flights aren’t spry, the question is the fare.

LHUSA wrote:
I’m wondering how much longer CX will last at IAD. I think it’s telling it was one of the first routes to be reduced. The -1000 never made sense to me, so much capacity for a new market (isn’t it CX’s longest route?). Does anyone have any load info for that route? Anecdotally I’ve heard of some very empty flights (pre riots).

And they swap to A359 as well during the low season.

Michael
 
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mercure1
Posts: 4412
Joined: Sun Jul 13, 2008 5:13 am

Re: Cathay Pacific to cut capacity

Thu Sep 12, 2019 3:08 am

Besides previously posted cuts, per routesonline.

CX reducing FRA and CDG services.

KA reductions to Beijing, Medan and Haneda

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... f-11sep19/
mercure f-wtcc
 
Scotron12
Posts: 105
Joined: Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:13 pm

Re: Cathay Pacific to cut capacity

Thu Sep 12, 2019 3:21 am

Could they start deferring aircraft orders if they're now cutting so much capacity?
 
reply1984
Posts: 7
Joined: Sun Jul 07, 2019 2:55 pm

Re: Cathay Pacific to cut capacity

Thu Sep 12, 2019 3:27 am

Scotron12 wrote:
Could they start deferring aircraft orders if they're now cutting so much capacity?


Actually no need for that, since Cathay only holds B777X and A321neo orders, and these two types have already been in delay:)

CX also has several A359/A35K orders, but they are only for replacement of their leased B77W and A333.
 
BlatantEcho
Posts: 2113
Joined: Wed Sep 27, 2000 10:11 am

Re: Cathay Pacific to cut capacity

Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:06 am

hz747300 wrote:
BlatantEcho wrote:
^^^

Scared is a bit strong. I live here, and certainly if you have other options why not go to Singapore, Taipei, or Bangkok instead? Since the bill's withdrawal, it has certainly calmed down, but even last week Central Station was set fire too. Imagine staying in a hotel in Central, and you are more or less confined to your hotel for the weekend. If you are staying in other areas, it's mostly fine.

Rather than being scared, I would say why would you want to bother with it if you have other options? Especially if it's a holiday.



Well, I go to Thailand next month. I dislike Singapore and I go to Taiwan in February. So, I’m already going to those places on separate trips.

Also, why would arson at s train station keep me in a hotel?
Again _fear_ is winning with you. Which is sad.

I love Hong Kong. Entire city could be on fire and I’m still visiting twice in the next few months.
Less than zero concern. In fact. None.
 
Opaque
Posts: 14
Joined: Sun Jul 16, 2017 11:22 am

Re: Cathay Pacific to cut capacity

Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:28 am

I flew CX CGK-HKG-JNB last week on a ticket that was booked a month ago. CGK-HKG was at 99% in economy (I had the only open seat next to me - OWE perk) and from what I could see, full in PY and relatively full in Business also. There was nothing unusual about the transit in HK. The only thing I did notice was that the HKG-JNB flight was not as full as usual. If I did not know that there was unrest in HK, I probably would not have noticed anything different from previous trips with CX.

[edited for spelling]
 
jasoncrh
Posts: 710
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2005 10:29 pm

Re: Cathay Pacific to cut capacity

Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:52 pm

Just checked. Overall for 2019 through July CX has an 83% load factor at Dulles. Not its highest but not its lowest. In June it had a 92% load factor, in July it went down to 80%. Will be interesting to see what happens in August when those numbers come in. Either way, these are just loads. I have no insight into yield/ fares - that would tell a richer story. and be more informative as to the true performance at Dulles.

Remember - anecdotes are one thing. Multiple anecdotes do not make for facts.

jasoncrh wrote:
T100 showed load factors on Dulles in the mid/ upper 80% range for most of this year. June was approximately 90%. I haven’t checked July yet but can check from work tomorrow. The flights aren’t spry, the question is the fare.

LHUSA wrote:
I’m wondering how much longer CX will last at IAD. I think it’s telling it was one of the first routes to be reduced. The -1000 never made sense to me, so much capacity for a new market (isn’t it CX’s longest route?). Does anyone have any load info for that route? Anecdotally I’ve heard of some very empty flights (pre riots).
 
Lufthansa
Posts: 2583
Joined: Thu May 20, 1999 6:04 am

Re: Cathay Pacific to cut capacity

Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:03 pm

jasoncrh wrote:
Just checked. Overall for 2019 through July CX has an 83% load factor at Dulles. Not its highest but not its lowest. In June it had a 92% load factor, in July it went down to 80%. Will be interesting to see what happens in August when those numbers come in. Either way, these are just loads. I have no insight into yield/ fares - that would tell a richer story. and be more informative as to the true performance at Dulles.

Remember - anecdotes are one thing. Multiple anecdotes do not make for facts.

jasoncrh wrote:
T100 showed load factors on Dulles in the mid/ upper 80% range for most of this year. June was approximately 90%. I haven’t checked July yet but can check from work tomorrow. The flights aren’t spry, the question is the fare.

LHUSA wrote:
I’m wondering how much longer CX will last at IAD. I think it’s telling it was one of the first routes to be reduced. The -1000 never made sense to me, so much capacity for a new market (isn’t it CX’s longest route?). Does anyone have any load info for that route? Anecdotally I’ve heard of some very empty flights (pre riots).



CX has had profit margin challenges over the last few years, in part due to mainland Chinese carriers competing.
Even if they maintained a high load factor it may not be enough, they just can't demand the prices they used to
be able to. There was an article in the economist a few years back saying at that point, before all this current mess
flared up obviously, they were needing a 120% load factor to break even. They of course had the oil hedging issue
and have probably tried to adjust what they can but with some of the prices I've seen, I can't see this financial year
having a nice balance sheet. It's not gonna be like in the old days when a disappointing profit was USD400 million
for the year. They're seriously at risk.
 
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lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 17938
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Cathay Pacific to cut capacity

Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:09 pm

Folks this is aviation. Please take political discussion to non aviation. If it is impossible to separate the two, discuss in non-aviation
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 2774
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Cathay Pacific to cut capacity

Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:52 pm

I just got to HK two days ago...

1. Concern about transiting in HKG? Disruption at the airport? Stop kidding me. The security if anything is almost overkill at the airport right now.
1b. Seriously, the airport was disrupted for two days, but it is a one time thing that was not repeated since.
2. Things are definitely calmer anyway. It is back to more similar to June/early July rather than the ugly August.
3. I laugh when people are concern about a few protesters starting fire. Seriously, if you live in any Western countries, the “violence” by the protesters is almost a joke.
4. Some route cuts are nothing more than seasonal adjustment. CDG to single daily? That’s every winter. KA cutting HND? They do that last winter also. Routes like KNO? It is just a new route that probably didn’t do that great.
5. CX is still expensive. We can talk when they actually dump cheap tickets onto the market.
6. Just another side note, in another thread it was mentioned that tourism dropped by 40%. Except that most of those are your mainland day-trippers who just come to HK to buy up daily goods.
Free Hong Kong! Free China!
 
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mercure1
Posts: 4412
Joined: Sun Jul 13, 2008 5:13 am

Re: Cathay Pacific to cut capacity

Tue Sep 17, 2019 3:24 am

Per @airlineroute HKG-SFO capacity will be reduced with 2 of 3 daily flights op with A359 instead of 77W effective 27 October. About 10% reduction in seats.

https://twitter.com/Airlineroute/status ... 6203765761
mercure f-wtcc

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