ctrabs0114
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Sat Sep 14, 2019 4:30 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
I see this as a sign that the A319neo is dead in the water, and that the A220-300 would be offered with ACTs for a VIP configuration (in a passenger configuration, it can't exceed 3500 nmi because of fuel limitations). However, for passenger limitations, I can't see that being really profitable as it's too small. That's where the A321neo or 737 MAX 8/9 would be best.

The A220 will take over a lot of what are current regional routes, but I can't see the narrowbody market fragmenting into the A220 replacing A320 routes. There are airlines who might have considered the A220 over another larger model had it been available sooner; this would be great for markets like Brazil, the South Pacific, Africa, and Central America.


BA1/2 JFK-LCY comes to mind...
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sibibom
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Sat Sep 14, 2019 4:51 am

Clearly, Airbus is finding A220-300 is a runaway winner much like A321 and it will develop further. A220-500 is going to happen in 5 years once Airbus completely owns the program and production is increased to something meaningful.

They are also slowing chipping away the business case for B797 at the lower end without spending much. Had the MAX saga not occurred it would probably been launched by now. The window to launch it narrowing each passing day.

However this can potentially backfire on Airbus in the long run if B797 isn't launched, Boeing will bring the B737 replacement forward. Engine tech is the only thing holding it back, but 4-5 years from now it maybe ready to be launched with deliveries in late 2020s. Airbus will have to respond, and probably take an important decision regarding A320 fusalge which is going to cost billions and may be difficult to roll out.
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:37 am

sibibom wrote:
Clearly, Airbus is finding A220-300 is a runaway winner much like A321 and it will develop further. A220-500 is going to happen in 5 years once Airbus completely owns the program and production is increased to something meaningful.

They are also slowing chipping away the business case for B797 at the lower end without spending much. Had the MAX saga not occurred it would probably been launched by now. The window to launch it narrowing each passing day.

However this can potentially backfire on Airbus in the long run if B797 isn't launched, Boeing will bring the B737 replacement forward. Engine tech is the only thing holding it back, but 4-5 years from now it maybe ready to be launched with deliveries in late 2020s. Airbus will have to respond, and probably take an important decision regarding A320 fusalge which is going to cost billions and may be difficult to roll out.


The only important decision regarding A320 fuselage I see at this stage is a 3-4 row stretch 200 seater, filling the 7-8 row gab between the A320 and A321. Converting a few thousand A320 slots into more profitable A320Plus.

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OA940
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:36 am

JetBuddy wrote:
Above 4000 nm range probably means at least matching the A321XLR on range.

However, it likely means premium 2-class configuration. In single class config, the A220-300 holds about 130-140 standard economy seats. Although it's certified for 160 seats in sardine can configuration.

So how many seats in an A220-300LR with a First Class / Business cabin up front? 100-115 total? That's around 60-70% of a similarly configured A321XLR.

On the other hand, it could probably be configured with 140-150 slim economy seats and still fly 3500 nm. Not that I'd want to be on that flight.

Either way, it seems like a very niche product. This is probably something that's only worth doing if the R&D and building costs are very low. So I'm guessing ACT like the A321LR and not fully integrated tanks like the A321XLR.


145 one-class should have around 31'' of legroom so it's fine. BBD's 2-class config said 12+118 so 130 total with 36''/31'' legroom, however I know the Thompson Vantage can be fitted into it and I assume with 3 rows of that it would be close to a 100-seater. There are a lot of routes that could use such a plane, but I wonder if airlines will be willing to do it.
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sibibom
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:48 am

keesje wrote:
sibibom wrote:
Clearly, Airbus is finding A220-300 is a runaway winner much like A321 and it will develop further. A220-500 is going to happen in 5 years once Airbus completely owns the program and production is increased to something meaningful.

They are also slowing chipping away the business case for B797 at the lower end without spending much. Had the MAX saga not occurred it would probably been launched by now. The window to launch it narrowing each passing day.

However this can potentially backfire on Airbus in the long run if B797 isn't launched, Boeing will bring the B737 replacement forward. Engine tech is the only thing holding it back, but 4-5 years from now it maybe ready to be launched with deliveries in late 2020s. Airbus will have to respond, and probably take an important decision regarding A320 fusalge which is going to cost billions and may be difficult to roll out.


The only important decision regarding A320 fuselage I see at this stage is a 3-4 row stretch 200 seater, filling the 7-8 row gab between the A320 and A321. Converting a few thousand A320 slots into more profitable A320Plus.

Image




What if the new NSA is made of composite body and not Aluminium based. Airbus may need to respond its own new fuselage, and not just new wings which is almost a certainity. Not sure when mass production of such a fuselage will be possible logistically.
 
WaywardMemphian
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Sat Sep 14, 2019 10:01 am

sibibom wrote:
Clearly, Airbus is finding A220-300 is a runaway winner much like A321 and it will develop further. A220-500 is going to happen in 5 years once Airbus completely owns the program and production is increased to something meaningful.

They are also slowing chipping away the business case for B797 at the lower end without spending much. Had the MAX saga not occurred it would probably been launched by now. The window to launch it narrowing each passing day.

However this can potentially backfire on Airbus in the long run if B797 isn't launched, Boeing will bring the B737 replacement forward. Engine tech is the only thing holding it back, but 4-5 years from now it maybe ready to be launched with deliveries in late 2020s. Airbus will have to respond, and probably take an important decision regarding A320 fusalge which is going to cost billions and may be difficult to roll out.


No, they are showing that Boeing desperately needs something to offer and the Max's aren't it.
 
JoergAtADN
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Sat Sep 14, 2019 10:26 am

Hello sibibom,
sibibom wrote:
What if the new NSA is made of composite body and not Aluminium based. Airbus may need to respond its own new fuselage, and not just new wings which is almost a certainity. Not sure when mass production of such a fuselage will be possible logistically.


If Boeing finds a way to produce this composite body to a similar price as an A320 body, than I would aggree.

The difficult thing is that Boeing will have to spend about 10Billion development costs, plus the costs for the manufacturing line and the difference in manufacturing costs itself. All this must be compensated by lower operating costs of the airplane.

And the fuel costs are not such a big part of the overall costs for a short range operation, as for a long range plane. But most single aisle planes are used on short sectors.

KR Jörg
 
SteelChair
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Sat Sep 14, 2019 10:30 am

And to think that just a short time ago, many people were saying the 220 wasn't viable.

While I see the LR/XLR as a niche product, it does help set the table for the 500, which will be launched before 31 Dec 2021 imho.

The 220 is still just getting started. Imagine 5 years from now.....3 fuselage lengths and multiple weight/range versions available from 2 factories, with the 5 abeast market a virtual monopoly.
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Sun Sep 15, 2019 9:15 am

SteelChair wrote:
And to think that just a short time ago, many people were saying the 220 wasn't viable.

While I see the LR/XLR as a niche product, it does help set the table for the 500, which will be launched before 31 Dec 2021 imho.

The 220 is still just getting started. Imagine 5 years from now.....3 fuselage lengths and multiple weight/range versions available from 2 factories, with the 5 abeast market a virtual monopoly.


I think the A220-100 faces serious competition from the E190E2 and E195E2. For some regionally orientated airlines E195 seat capacity might be enough, maybe even on the high side. The probably would prefer the E2 series.

I think it is important Boeing Brasil invests in a lean, light up to 99 seat HD E2 version. The current E175E2 doesnt seem to match market requirements and they need a convincing E2 family concept. MHI hasn't been sitting on its hands..

Image
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rigo
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Sun Sep 15, 2019 10:20 am

To think that back in 2018, some claimed that they would rather see the CSeries program go bust (and Bombardier with it) than it ending up under Airbus...
 
marcogr12
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:17 pm

So if indeed Airbus goes ahead with A220LR or XLR how much heavier will it get and will it still compare to a 144seat 737-700 or A319 neo?
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lightsaber
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Sun Sep 15, 2019 3:03 pm

keesje wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
And to think that just a short time ago, many people were saying the 220 wasn't viable.

While I see the LR/XLR as a niche product, it does help set the table for the 500, which will be launched before 31 Dec 2021 imho.

The 220 is still just getting started. Imagine 5 years from now.....3 fuselage lengths and multiple weight/range versions available from 2 factories, with the 5 abeast market a virtual monopoly.


I think the A220-100 faces serious competition from the E190E2 and E195E2. For some regionally orientated airlines E195 seat capacity might be enough, maybe even on the high side. The probably would prefer the E2 series.

I think it is important Boeing Brasil invests in a lean, light up to 99 seat HD E2 version. The current E175E2 doesnt seem to match market requirements and they need a convincing E2 family concept. MHI hasn't been sitting on its hands..

Image

As a Pratt fan, I want the E2 to break out and sell. But this thread is on an even more range A220 and that is where the E2 cannot compete. The A220 has finally gained enough orders to be viable to the point production, not sales, is the #1 concern.

The E2 just doesn't have enough sales. My personal estimate is that 600 of an aircraft (yes, over a thousand if an engine) must now be in service. This is because if extended service intervals where components are rebuilt ever 10 to 12 years instead of every, for example on the MD-80, every about 7 years. Back then, 400 examples were needed to ensure every year there was a batch of 25+ rebuilds every year. Better economy of scale at 50+ or 100+. But 25 was sufficient (on the MD-80 AA was notoriously peaky, skipping years to gain volume discounts).

The A220 will have that economy of scale as long as enough commitments become firm (minus expected cancelations) even without the bevy of expected top off orders (KE and LH). The E2, with new engines, nacelles, and sub systems needs to sell quite a few more. KLM was a nice win for the E2 (as AF was for the A220).

Both need production above a hundred per year in today's market. Both need a large in service fleet for that lovely ancillary revenue.

With Moxie's moves to launch early, I do see an opportunity to sell to them (split fleet). The cost of split fleets is less than it was. (Power by the hour, training centers, predictive maintenance). But that is why US3 (add AC) and EU3 customers are required. DL, UA, LH and others run profit centers on MRO and crew/staff traing (by staff, add line mechanics to pilots and FA) that enable new types. I'm sure I missed others, those are the big outsourcing training/MRO centers. The E2 gaining KLM was key (counters KH techniq), but where is the North American E2 center to counter DL? Hint, UA is a kingmaker here and both airframes better bid accordingly.

Does KE do training? To be blunt, whomever wins the Singapore group has a huge leg up in Asia. So the E2 must accelerate their sales campaigns. They are far from critical mass and lost three critical campaigns: AC, B6, and AF.

But as this is a thread on a longer range A220, this new version is for sales campaigns the E2 need not apply. At this time this version is for existing A220 customers, but will hopefully bring in new such as IAG from DUB (Air Lingus): B6, DL, LH group, Moxie, and KE are obvious top off orders coming down the pipeline.

It always amazed me how much little range PiPs improved sales: 738/739ER (last PiPs dramatically boosted sales), A320, A332, 77W, A333 (in a big way, the poster child of range PiPs increasing sales), 789/78X, A321CEO/NEO/A321LR/xLR and now A220.

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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Sun Sep 15, 2019 3:03 pm

scbriml wrote:
And some "experts" here questioned the value or reason for a higher MTOW for the A220. :lol:


they need another 2.5 .. 3t MTOW now, don't they ( and bit more tankage to avoid being fuel limited.)?
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:27 pm

I’m curious if this development grabs the attention of AS? I’ve thought for a while now that they could simplify the fleet by letting the 700’s, 319’s and 320’s go and replacing them with the A220-100 and -300. They even have the inherited order for 30 A320 NEO’s on the books. I initially thought they would upgrade that order for more 321’s but maybe they could swap it to the 220? With this newly announced product, I wonder if that makes this possibility more attractive?
 
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:43 pm

SteelChair wrote:
The 220 is still just getting started. Imagine 5 years from now.....3 fuselage lengths and multiple weight/range versions available from 2 factories, with the 5 abeast market a virtual monopoly.


Just getting started = 14 years since it was first announced?
 
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:52 pm

Great to see so much innovation from Airbus, both on A321LR/XLR and now on A220.

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chiad
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Sun Sep 15, 2019 6:10 pm

Babyshark wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
The 220 is still just getting started. Imagine 5 years from now.....3 fuselage lengths and multiple weight/range versions available from 2 factories, with the 5 abeast market a virtual monopoly.


Just getting started = 14 years since it was first announced?


The C-series maybe.
But now we're talking about the A220 in the hands of Airbus with all its might behind support, sales and innovation.
A samurai sword is just that. But when wielded by the right hands ...
 
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Sun Sep 15, 2019 6:40 pm

chiad wrote:
Babyshark wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
The 220 is still just getting started. Imagine 5 years from now.....3 fuselage lengths and multiple weight/range versions available from 2 factories, with the 5 abeast market a virtual monopoly.


Just getting started = 14 years since it was first announced?


The C-series maybe.
But now we're talking about the A220 in the hands of Airbus with all its might behind support, sales and innovation.
A samurai sword is just that. But when wielded by the right hands ...


Not to mention the fact that the economic crisis slowed things down considerably...

And baby....you only focused on one part of my comment yet conveniently overlooked the fact that they have the 5 abreast segnent all to themselves.
 
F9Animal
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:32 pm

Part of me is so sad that Bombardier couldn't enjoy the success like Airbus has so far! But another part of me celebrates the work that went into this amazing airplane, and Bombardier did a heck of a job with it. I will always refer to it as the C-Series.

I really do believe this plane is going to be the hottest plane, giving Boeing and Embraer a run for it's money. I wonder if we will see it used on flights to Hawaii eventually? And is the plane a potential for Hawaiian for their island jumps? I also hope Alaska is kicking the tires on this bird!
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lightsaber
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Sun Sep 15, 2019 8:52 pm

chiad wrote:
Babyshark wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
The 220 is still just getting started. Imagine 5 years from now.....3 fuselage lengths and multiple weight/range versions available from 2 factories, with the 5 abeast market a virtual monopoly.


Just getting started = 14 years since it was first announced?


The C-series maybe.
But now we're talking about the A220 in the hands of Airbus with all its might behind support, sales and innovation.
A samurai sword is just that. But when wielded by the right hands ...

Shall be backtrack to the BRX where friends worked on that 1998. But that doesn't matter. What matters is the relative tech.

Electrical subsystems to save fuel and maintenance, check.

CFRP wing? Check

GTF? Check.

What is missing:
Variable cycle (fan nozzle, variable turbine cooling)
3.5:1 GTF, but that is optimization for a 2 hour+ mission, the A220 was optimized for short 1 hour missions.
CMC turbine blades
Predictive maintenance

All that engine stuff is very gauge and mission dependent, except for CMC turbine blades and only GE is ready in rediculously low volumes. Anyone else paid the billions for the factories? Yield is... Low, but GE is ahead.

So I believe there is enough tech to launch. The A220 xLR and eventually (hopefully) a -500. The program is finally getting PiPs and production volume.

Lightsaber
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Max Q
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Sun Sep 15, 2019 10:23 pm

What are the total orders for the A220 now ?
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GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Mon Sep 16, 2019 12:29 am

lightsaber wrote:
chiad wrote:
Babyshark wrote:

Just getting started = 14 years since it was first announced?


The C-series maybe.
But now we're talking about the A220 in the hands of Airbus with all its might behind support, sales and innovation.
A samurai sword is just that. But when wielded by the right hands ...

Shall be backtrack to the BRX where friends worked on that 1998. But that doesn't matter. What matters is the relative tech.

Electrical subsystems to save fuel and maintenance, check.

CFRP wing? Check

GTF? Check.

What is missing:
Variable cycle (fan nozzle, variable turbine cooling)
3.5:1 GTF, but that is optimization for a 2 hour+ mission, the A220 was optimized for short 1 hour missions.
CMC turbine blades
Predictive maintenance

All that engine stuff is very gauge and mission dependent, except for CMC turbine blades and only GE is ready in rediculously low volumes. Anyone else paid the billions for the factories? Yield is... Low, but GE is ahead.

So I believe there is enough tech to launch. The A220 xLR and eventually (hopefully) a -500. The program is finally getting PiPs and production volume.

Lightsaber


Despite all the BBD dramas over the last decade—finances, management turnover, Quebec politics, the business aircraft side, the economy—the engineering and development team kept their noses to the wheel and delivered an excellent airplane. It was also (wink, wink) a great prototypes for the G7500 which is also headed for success. The Passport engine burns fuel at M.90 like the BR700 does in the G6000 at M.85. Better field performance than the G6000 on the same mission.

GF
 
rigo
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Mon Sep 16, 2019 1:28 am

F9Animal wrote:
Part of me is so sad that Bombardier couldn't enjoy the success like Airbus has so far! But another part of me celebrates the work that went into this amazing airplane, and Bombardier did a heck of a job with it. I will always refer to it as the C-Series.

I really do believe this plane is going to be the hottest plane, giving Boeing and Embraer a run for it's money. I wonder if we will see it used on flights to Hawaii eventually? And is the plane a potential for Hawaiian for their island jumps? I also hope Alaska is kicking the tires on this bird!


It was and is sad for BBD but from the point of view of the program and the actual airplane, the CS/A220 is now selling and flying, engineers kept their jobs, the Quebec govt is getting a RoI and $$$ are being reinvested into further developments and new variants. What is there not to like?
 
Babyshark
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Mon Sep 16, 2019 1:57 am

SteelChair wrote:
chiad wrote:
Babyshark wrote:

Just getting started = 14 years since it was first announced?


The C-series maybe.
But now we're talking about the A220 in the hands of Airbus with all its might behind support, sales and innovation.
A samurai sword is just that. But when wielded by the right hands ...


Not to mention the fact that the economic crisis slowed things down considerably...

And baby....you only focused on one part of my comment yet conveniently overlooked the fact that they have the 5 abreast segnent all to themselves.


Okay I'll focus on your comment about 3 lengths... there are 2. Except here. Where people think the 225 is a thing. But it isn't. Is it?
 
JonesNL
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Mon Sep 16, 2019 6:57 am

lightsaber wrote:
chiad wrote:
Babyshark wrote:

Just getting started = 14 years since it was first announced?


The C-series maybe.
But now we're talking about the A220 in the hands of Airbus with all its might behind support, sales and innovation.
A samurai sword is just that. But when wielded by the right hands ...

Shall be backtrack to the BRX where friends worked on that 1998. But that doesn't matter. What matters is the relative tech.

Electrical subsystems to save fuel and maintenance, check.

CFRP wing? Check

GTF? Check.

What is missing:
Variable cycle (fan nozzle, variable turbine cooling)
3.5:1 GTF, but that is optimization for a 2 hour+ mission, the A220 was optimized for short 1 hour missions.
CMC turbine blades
Predictive maintenance

All that engine stuff is very gauge and mission dependent, except for CMC turbine blades and only GE is ready in rediculously low volumes. Anyone else paid the billions for the factories? Yield is... Low, but GE is ahead.

So I believe there is enough tech to launch. The A220 xLR and eventually (hopefully) a -500. The program is finally getting PiPs and production volume.

Lightsaber


So, they have points to improve on an already competitive plane. I wouldn't be suprised they already have some of the points you mentioned in the works for future upgrades. I do wonder though; how does the A225 compare against a A320NEO and 737 Max 7...
 
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Mon Sep 16, 2019 9:51 am

Regardless of it being a narrow-body, the A220 offers excellent 'big jet' comfort, cue really low cabin noise levels, large overhead bins, big windows, and excellent cabin humidity levels. It's cabin comfort levels are up there with the 787, and so much better that anything else NB-wise. So, I welcome this as good news.
 
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:57 am

Babyshark wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
chiad wrote:

The C-series maybe.
But now we're talking about the A220 in the hands of Airbus with all its might behind support, sales and innovation.
A samurai sword is just that. But when wielded by the right hands ...


Not to mention the fact that the economic crisis slowed things down considerably...

And baby....you only focused on one part of my comment yet conveniently overlooked the fact that they have the 5 abreast segnent all to themselves.


Okay I'll focus on your comment about 3 lengths... there are 2. Except here. Where people think the 225 is a thing. But it isn't. Is it?


The speculation is the fun part. I'll go on record and say that the 500 is coming. Are you willing to say that it won't?
 
Armadillo1
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:45 am

It will be within cargo hold - within the empennage is not a practical option..

why? in past its a common practice.

center of mass shift so serious? i thought it can be solved
 
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Wed Sep 18, 2019 4:54 pm

zkojq wrote:
Presumably the airframe would be extra attractive as an ACJ now (once Airbus buys out bombardier and Quebec and decides to offer one).

Reddevil556 wrote:
I can see this as the impetus to launch a corporate A220. It could be a marketing strategy to initially test the market for interest in a LR/XLR variant and then modify that frame for a bizz jet model.

aemoreira1981 wrote:
I see this as a sign that the A319neo is dead in the water, and that the A220-300 would be offered with ACTs for a VIP configuration (in a passenger configuration, it can't exceed 3500 nmi because of fuel limitations).

Why not apply the innovations to the A221 as well to maximize the investment and effort? A bigger integral tank in the cargo hold will not matter as much for a VIP version. And while they are at it, couldn't Airbus fit A330neo-style wingtips on the A221? An ACJ221-XLR would be quite interesting and pretty nifty. :bigthumbsup:
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
Reddevil556
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Fri Sep 20, 2019 12:13 am

Devilfish wrote:
zkojq wrote:
Presumably the airframe would be extra attractive as an ACJ now (once Airbus buys out bombardier and Quebec and decides to offer one).

Reddevil556 wrote:
I can see this as the impetus to launch a corporate A220. It could be a marketing strategy to initially test the market for interest in a LR/XLR variant and then modify that frame for a bizz jet model.

aemoreira1981 wrote:
I see this as a sign that the A319neo is dead in the water, and that the A220-300 would be offered with ACTs for a VIP configuration (in a passenger configuration, it can't exceed 3500 nmi because of fuel limitations).

Why not apply the innovations to the A221 as well to maximize the investment and effort? A bigger integral tank in the cargo hold will not matter as much for a VIP version. And while they are at it, couldn't Airbus fit A330neo-style wingtips on the A221? An ACJ221-XLR would be quite interesting and pretty nifty. :bigthumbsup:


Well it would be sleeker and more attractive in any configuration than the slug looking A319/320. Great planes, but they are about as aesthetically pleasing as 2003 Jetta. :box:
Jumped out of: C130H, C130J, C17A, C212, CH47, and UH60. Bucket list: C160, A400, C2
 
LDRA
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Fri Sep 20, 2019 1:50 am

Engine reliability needs to improve
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Sat Oct 05, 2019 2:44 am

sibibom wrote:
Clearly, Airbus is finding A220-300 is a runaway winner much like A321 and it will develop further. A220-500 is going to happen in 5 years once Airbus completely owns the program and production is increased to something meaningful.

They are also slowing chipping away the business case for B797 at the lower end without spending much. Had the MAX saga not occurred it would probably been launched by now. The window to launch it narrowing each passing day.

However this can potentially backfire on Airbus in the long run if B797 isn't launched, Boeing will bring the B737 replacement forward. Engine tech is the only thing holding it back, but 4-5 years from now it maybe ready to be launched with deliveries in late 2020s. Airbus will have to respond, and probably take an important decision regarding A320 fusalge which is going to cost billions and may be difficult to roll out.

Engine tech is not holding back the 797, the business case is. That and the MAX and 777x sucking up design talent/budget.

However, on topic, there is only so much need for mid-thin travel. I'm a huge fan of competition, new hubs, taking advantage of O&D for connections, and the premium of direct flights. Whew! I can take a breath now. ;)

The A220-300xLR, which I assume is a MTOW increase and an ACT, opens up many routes, ohhh... BOS or Dublin to ... So many possibilities!!!

But what is finally offered? A full ACT in normal 2-class needs 4 metric tons of net MTOW to apply to that ACT.
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Weatherwatcher1
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Sat Oct 05, 2019 12:18 pm

LDRA wrote:
Engine reliability needs to improve


Absolutely. The 4 inflight shutdowns so far has the A220 on the edge of not meeting the minimum requirements for ETOPS flying. Pratt needs to improve reliability since an A220XLR without ETOPS isn’t going to be all that useful.
 
sibibom
Posts: 414
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Sat Oct 05, 2019 8:48 pm

lightsaber wrote:
sibibom wrote:
Clearly, Airbus is finding A220-300 is a runaway winner much like A321 and it will develop further. A220-500 is going to happen in 5 years once Airbus completely owns the program and production is increased to something meaningful.

They are also slowing chipping away the business case for B797 at the lower end without spending much. Had the MAX saga not occurred it would probably been launched by now. The window to launch it narrowing each passing day.

However this can potentially backfire on Airbus in the long run if B797 isn't launched, Boeing will bring the B737 replacement forward. Engine tech is the only thing holding it back, but 4-5 years from now it maybe ready to be launched with deliveries in late 2020s. Airbus will have to respond, and probably take an important decision regarding A320 fusalge which is going to cost billions and may be difficult to roll out.

Engine tech is not holding back the 797, the business case is. That and the MAX and 777x sucking up design talent/budget.



Engine tech for B737/A320 replacement. I think we are at least a decade away from that. Business case for B797 is there, but is narrowing cos the Max saga getting dragged on well into 2020.
 
rigo
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Sat Oct 05, 2019 9:06 pm

Reddevil556 wrote:

Well it would be sleeker and more attractive in any configuration than the slug looking A319/320. Great planes, but they are about as aesthetically pleasing as 2003 Jetta.

The "problem" with the A319/32x looks has always been the nose. Apart from that they look just fine, better in my opinion than the 737.
 
rigo
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Sat Oct 05, 2019 9:14 pm

sibibom wrote:
What if the new NSA is made of composite body and not Aluminium based. Airbus may need to respond its own new fuselage, and not just new wings which is almost a certainity. Not sure when mass production of such a fuselage will be possible logistically.


I'm not an expert by any means but my understanding is that a composite fuselage is not competitive for small single aisle aircraft, because its weight savings would be too small and the cost too high. Even the brand new MC--21 or the Mitsubishi Spacejet don't use it.
 
JohanTally
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Sat Oct 05, 2019 10:30 pm

Carbon composite is typically 50% lighter than aluminum with significantly higher tensile strength. Longer flights recognize the fuel savings more over shorter segments but the A220 seems to be enjoying the weight advantage of a composite fuselage. Using a composite fuselage would help make a much more capable scope compliant large RJ. If the E175-E2 would of swapped fuselage materials it probably would have a significant backlog right now but instead it can only carry 900 miles of fuel to stay in compliance and airlines continue to order the original E175
 
T4thH
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Sat Oct 05, 2019 11:01 pm

JohanTally wrote:
Carbon composite is typically 50% lighter than aluminum with significantly higher tensile strength. Longer flights recognize the fuel savings more over shorter segments but the A220 seems to be enjoying the weight advantage of a composite fuselage. Using a composite fuselage would help make a much more capable scope compliant large RJ. If the E175-E2 would of swapped fuselage materials it probably would have a significant backlog right now but instead it can only carry 900 miles of fuel to stay in compliance and airlines continue to order the original E175


Sorry....but...A220...fuselage and composite? NO! And composite is regular only 30% lighter, not 50%.

46% is composite material, wings and tail fins.

The fuselage is constructed of an aluminium-lithium alloy. And now I am not 100% sure, is not even the cockpit section just a aluminium alloy, not even the little bit lighter Aluminium lithium?

If it can be avoided, do not use composite at the fuselage, especially not for narrowbodies and not in section with doors and lower half with the cargo doors.
Dings by stupid idiots/drivers/ catering cars, driving stairs e.g. are regular at airports. A ding in aluminium alloy or in aluminium-lithium alloys is easy to repair, just ding it out with a hammer or just stick a plate on the ding. It can be fixed in short time and will be completely repaired latest during the following night.
To repair composite is pure horror, repair is highly expensive, need much time e.g., and during this, the jet will be parked for days.
Narrowbodies, who are regular parked and boarded on outfields, have much more trouble with crashes than the widebodies, who are standing at terminals.
 
JohanTally
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Sun Oct 06, 2019 1:29 am

T4thH wrote:
JohanTally wrote:
Carbon composite is typically 50% lighter than aluminum with significantly higher tensile strength. Longer flights recognize the fuel savings more over shorter segments but the A220 seems to be enjoying the weight advantage of a composite fuselage. Using a composite fuselage would help make a much more capable scope compliant large RJ. If the E175-E2 would of swapped fuselage materials it probably would have a significant backlog right now but instead it can only carry 900 miles of fuel to stay in compliance and airlines continue to order the original E175


Sorry....but...A220...fuselage and composite? NO! And composite is regular only 30% lighter, not 50%.

46% is composite material, wings and tail fins.

The fuselage is constructed of an aluminium-lithium alloy. And now I am not 100% sure, is not even the cockpit section just a aluminium alloy, not even the little bit lighter Aluminium lithium?

If it can be avoided, do not use composite at the fuselage, especially not for narrowbodies and not in section with doors and lower half with the cargo doors.
Dings by stupid idiots/drivers/ catering cars, driving stairs e.g. are regular at airports. A ding in aluminium alloy or in aluminium-lithium alloys is easy to repair, just ding it out with a hammer or just stick a plate on the ding. It can be fixed in short time and will be completely repaired latest during the following night.
To repair composite is pure horror, repair is highly expensive, need much time e.g., and during this, the jet will be parked for days.
Narrowbodies, who are regular parked and boarded on outfields, have much more trouble with crashes than the widebodies, who are standing at terminals.



My apologies you are correct about the A220. It definitely has benefited from being nearly 50% composite but not the fuselage. Ramp rash is probably a real factor in not having a narrow body composite fuselage however when compared to a aluminum alloy panel composites are much more resistant to dings and punctures. Boeing had to prove the extreme durability of the material on the 787 and also that there is a standard process to repair damage. It's more labor intensive than a doubler panel but it doesn't take as long as on would think and usually doesn't deform the area or add significant weight. I have seen some really large doubler repairs that add weight and incur more drag.
 
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Taxi645
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Sun Oct 06, 2019 10:46 am

A few months back I suggested Boeing to address the bottom half of the 737 replacement first and to tackle Airbus where it is still weakest; the A220. viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1415977&p=21538865#p21538145

Would this be Airbus way to close down that window of opportunity or at least try to discourage them from going that route by giving hints on further A220 development?
Innovation is seeing opportunity before obstacle.
 
Max Q
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Sun Oct 06, 2019 10:59 am

The 220 is a fine machine and a very good looking one for that matter


However I don’t get the fascination with wanting to fly longer and longer flights with smaller and smaller aircraft


The one long haul market that the -100 series seems ideal for is LCY-JFK, that’s an ideal niche


Otherwise I’ll take the largest aircraft available thanks
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.


Guns and the love of them by a loud minority are a malignant and deadly cancer inflicted on American society
 
flyby519
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Sun Oct 06, 2019 1:33 pm

Max Q wrote:
The 220 is a fine machine and a very good looking one for that matter


However I don’t get the fascination with wanting to fly longer and longer flights with smaller and smaller aircraft


The one long haul market that the -100 series seems ideal for is LCY-JFK, that’s an ideal niche


Otherwise I’ll take the largest aircraft available thanks


Smaller a/c means more frequency, more schedule options, more city pairs, less time away from home. Additionally means lower barriers to entry for smaller airlines, more competition, lower prices. But if you want to fly only a few days a week, connect through mega-hubs, and have the market controlled by a small number of carriers that charge high prices then go ahead! Hope you enjoy that mighty widebody! ;)
 
Max Q
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Mon Oct 07, 2019 2:20 am

flyby519 wrote:
Max Q wrote:
The 220 is a fine machine and a very good looking one for that matter


However I don’t get the fascination with wanting to fly longer and longer flights with smaller and smaller aircraft


The one long haul market that the -100 series seems ideal for is LCY-JFK, that’s an ideal niche


Otherwise I’ll take the largest aircraft available thanks


Smaller a/c means more frequency, more schedule options, more city pairs, less time away from home. Additionally means lower barriers to entry for smaller airlines, more competition, lower prices. But if you want to fly only a few days a week, connect through mega-hubs, and have the market controlled by a small number of carriers that charge high prices then go ahead! Hope you enjoy that mighty widebody! ;)



Don’t need to connect through ‘mega hubs’
to avoid little airplanes, plenty of widebody service to the places I want to go from where I live


Enjoy your sardine cans !
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.


Guns and the love of them by a loud minority are a malignant and deadly cancer inflicted on American society
 
bgm
Posts: 2173
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Mon Oct 07, 2019 7:51 am

Max Q wrote:
flyby519 wrote:
Max Q wrote:
The 220 is a fine machine and a very good looking one for that matter


However I don’t get the fascination with wanting to fly longer and longer flights with smaller and smaller aircraft


The one long haul market that the -100 series seems ideal for is LCY-JFK, that’s an ideal niche


Otherwise I’ll take the largest aircraft available thanks


Smaller a/c means more frequency, more schedule options, more city pairs, less time away from home. Additionally means lower barriers to entry for smaller airlines, more competition, lower prices. But if you want to fly only a few days a week, connect through mega-hubs, and have the market controlled by a small number of carriers that charge high prices then go ahead! Hope you enjoy that mighty widebody! ;)



Don’t need to connect through ‘mega hubs’
to avoid little airplanes, plenty of widebody service to the places I want to go from where I live


Enjoy your sardine cans !


It’s the seat size/pitch that matters, no? I’d rather sit in an 18” wide seat on an A220 vs a 17” one on a noisy 777 with higher cabin altitude and drier air (which causes more fatigue).

Larger aircraft also take longer to board/disembark. Having flown on a lot of large aircraft for relatively short flights, the novelty has definitely worn off.
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Amiga500
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Mon Oct 07, 2019 12:03 pm

Armadillo1 wrote:
It will be within cargo hold - within the empennage is not a practical option..

why? in past its a common practice.

center of mass shift so serious? i thought it can be solved



Sorry, missed this, reasons are (not limited to):
- insufficient volume to carry significant amount of fuel (relative to the increase being sought here).
- plumbing is not set up for it, would need significant redesign.
- the introduction of FAR25.981 has meant the empennage tanks are more difficult to install - as reducing flammability exposure (usually via inerting the ullage) is complex. Neither the A350 or B787 have tail trim tanks and this is a part of the reasoning for that and pushed the OEMs into developing alternatives, which led to:
- modern FBW trim systems using the LE slats and flaps/ailerons to adjust the wing aero centre such that need for tail tank to eliminate trim drag is eradicated. This is a significantly lighter solution to the problem.

So, as you see, there is little need to add a trim tank when significantly better alternatives exist.


[As an aside, it is likely Airbus can add such a system to the A321XLR, but Boeing could not on a 737 equivalent due to the lack of FBW.]
 
tphuang
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Re: Airbus launching A220LR or XLR according to Jon Ostrower

Mon Oct 07, 2019 3:31 pm

The more I think about it, the more it seems to me that A220-XLR is going to take over certain segement of TATL market long term.

Using B6's A220-300 config as the starting pointing, let's say you turn 3 rows into J cabin and take 3 rows of Y seating out to give more space to J cabin, add another row or 2 of Y+ seating and some more space for long haul catering and bathroom. Then, you can have a mini-J cabin of 3 x 4 = 12 seats along with 22 x 5= 110 Y/Y+ seating or about 122 seats in total. Maybe the J seating won't be full lie flat, but will be good enough. Aside from size of J cabin, both Y and Y+ should be very comfortable and comparable to the experience of any widebody aircraft. The unit cost of this might be a little higher than 165 seat A321LR, but not much more. If you factor in the purchase costs, it's probably close to each other. And airline will have to fill a much smaller Y cabin.

You'd probably want to use an aircraft like this in long thin routes without heavy business demand, so the smaller J cabin can be sold at a level that's more affordable by high yielding leisure traffic. Hard to see how A220 wouldn't be able to generate higher margins than A321LR on this type of routes. I'm thinking of JFK/BOS/EWR-EDI/SNN/BFL/BHX/PDL/KEF/LIS/OPO or BWI/PVD/BDL/SWF-DUB/STN.

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