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lightsaber
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DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sat Sep 14, 2019 3:46 pm

I track MD-80s in service, I use a free source with a time lag and record in a spreadsheet:.

https://www.airfleets.net/exploit/production-md80.htm

Until 7/23/17 Delta had 181 MD-80+MD-90 (back then there were Qty 63 MD-90 and happens to be the first time I noticed a MD-90 retirement (drops to 62 registered to DL).

A few dates (total MD-80/90 and MD-90) at Delta
7/23/17 181 total with 63 MD-90
12/3/17. 170 total, 61 MD-90 (same qty 1/1/18)
1/7/18 168 total with 60 MD-90
3/8/18 164 total with 58 MD-90
6/2/18 157 total with 54 MD-90
9/7/28 148 total with 49 MD-90
1/5/19. 128 total with 40 MD-90
3/11/19 127 total with 37 MD-90
6/17/19 113 total with 36 MD-90
9/1/19 100 total with 32 MD-90
9/14/19 (today) 93 total with 30 MD-90

I find the accelerated retirements facinating as:
1. DL is the last MD-90 operator
In 21 months half the fleet retired
2. DL is the last major MD-80 operator (major being a viable 25+ sub-fleet)
With the slow season started, 5 MD-80 and 2 MD-90 removed from registry (retired)

There is an accelerating trend down. Not surprising as these leave the fleet in 2020.

Note:. Per airfleets there are still 243 MD-80/90 registered. Unfortunately, as when AA ceased support contracts followed by DL, the vendor supply chain is shut down. I've never before seen Pratt prematurely cease supporting an engine, but there was no business case to continue.

Lightsaber
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DDR
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sat Sep 14, 2019 3:56 pm

I think DL is probably finding it harder to maintain these birds so it makes sense to speed up their retirement. From a passenger POV, they are also not that great to fly on so for DL it probably makes more sense to retire them than to spend money upgrading them (seatback screens, etc). Is DL using any of their retired MD-80s for parts?
 
wave46
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sat Sep 14, 2019 3:57 pm

We've seen this before, no?

Once the L-1011 starting being retired, it seemed like it was gone overnight. Same with the 727, IIRC.

The effect is more pronounced with small subtypes like the MD-90 as the limiting factor tends to be components supply drying up and lack of scrapped aircraft to support them.

The airline business is a harsh one. Much as I love airlines that use unusual types of aircraft, the logical part of my brain understands the economics behind it. An airline that keeps many old, different planes running daily probably should be called 'Lose Money Airlines'.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sat Sep 14, 2019 4:25 pm

In another thread it was noted DL is having to lease power by the hour engines to sustain the minimal MD-80 fleet:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1431205&p=21658619#p21658619

As wave46 notes, we've seen this before in the harsh airline business.

What was different is AA and DL were able to coast for a long time on part staches and limited scrapping. If you read that other thread, it looks like serviceable engines are becoming rare (both MD-80 and 90).

I am also aware of certain parts for the aircraft becoming rare. For example, the cargo hold pressurization valve certified for the MD-80/90 (so called doggie warmer) is per my rumor mill becoming rare. The vendor cannot aggregate enough volume to rebuild a batch and has raised the price of the few leftover rebuilt examples in inventory to extreme levels. Seriously, it costs 20 engineering/management hours to buy the parts to rebuild a batch which makes starting a batch of rebuilds prohibitive unless there is volume.

When aircraft are in constant service, that doggie warmer valve was overhauled every 7 to 10 years (on cycles). So when a thousand were flying, a hundred+ were overhauled each year, always in one batch to save costs, and that worked. AA alone was overhauling enough (30+ per year) that they set when the batch happened in fact. When AA said no more, the vendor was contractually obligated to still do one final batch of overhauls and the vendor ended up buying used parts on the aftermarket to rebuild as they had to fill the minimum rebuild lot size (a mere 25), half the speculative sold immediately at enough profit to pay normal profits for the batch. The other speculative parts were put into storage at 3X pricing, since raised.

So yes, we've seen this before. I will note Iran uses counterfeit parts. For my example, they could build new as the US based vendor wouldn't be allowed to, for understandable environmental reasons, build any new parts due to the ban on chrome plating.

There will be no heroic restart due to the global aviation ban on toxic manufacturing processes. If you haven't read on what China did to itself with Chrome plating, do so as you will understand why the group guilt on exporting pollution ended new build MD-80/90 parts. Note:. US Chrome plating was much cleaner, but still banned and the aerospace industry is shut down.

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PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sat Sep 14, 2019 4:29 pm

A lot of the pull down in the past weeks is in part due to the seasonality and the need to keep extra frames around to cover the summer schedule and have sufficient spares.

The plan was to be at 40 MD88s at year end 2019.
 
DALMD80
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sat Sep 14, 2019 5:36 pm

Nooo! I'm gonna miss the Mad Dogs.
You can take the boy away from aviation, but you can't take aviation out of the boy.
 
FLALEFTY
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sat Sep 14, 2019 5:38 pm

I found this on Flight Global concerning DL's MD88/90 retirement/replacement plans: https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... -m-457377/ Per this article, it seems that the MD90's will all be gone very soon & the MD88's will be down to 44 by the end of 2019, with full retirement by the end of 2020.

It will be interesting to see what aircraft replaces these in some secondary Florida markets. For Delta, the MD88 has been the mainline mainstay for cities like DAB, SRQ, MLB, ECP, VPS, PNS & TLH. GNV used to see MD88's, but now gets a lone A320, with the rest of the service being carried out by regional partners. (Note: I'm excluding larger Florida markets like PBI, RSW, TPA, JAX, MCO, FLL & MIA, which receive a broader mix of DL aircraft).
 
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sat Sep 14, 2019 5:53 pm

FLALEFTY wrote:
I found this on Flight Global concerning DL's MD88/90 retirement/replacement plans: https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... -m-457377/ Per this article, it seems that the MD90's will all be gone very soon & the MD88's will be down to 44 by the end of 2019, with full retirement by the end of 2020.


There were superseding comments from Jacobson. MD-90s gone by 2022. It strikes me as unlikely all MD-90s will be gone before the last of the MD-88s.

https://thepointsguy.com/news/three-yea ... -on-delta/

I would speculate that a lot of the short-haul ATL MD-88/90 flying will get A320s, with 738s on relatively longer routes systemwide due to fuel efficiency. Maybe 321s (not Neos) on ATL-XXX that can use an upgauge or cut in frequency.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sat Sep 14, 2019 6:45 pm

Is this parts shortage affecting the 717 also? HA has to have them for interisland quick turns.
 
PhilMcCrackin
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sat Sep 14, 2019 7:34 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
Is this parts shortage affecting the 717 also? HA has to have them for interisland quick turns.


I doubt the 717 has many parts in common with the MD80/90. Different engines, different cockpit, different systems.

There has only been a handful of 717s scrapped, so there's enough of them still out there to keep the parts supply chain going.
 
wjcandee
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sat Sep 14, 2019 7:38 pm

wave46 wrote:
An airline that keeps many old, different planes running daily probably should be called 'Lose Money Airlines'.


Or "Optimal Fleet Airlines". Or "Highly-Profitable-Delta-Airlines". A proper fleet mix to make money includes a range of capital assets. For a major airline, they need new aircraft to fly greater than X hours per day, mid-age aircraft to fly Y hours per day, and older aircraft to fly Z hours per day. Expense equals capital cost plus operating cost. Things like C-checks and major repair work is a capital cost, to be sure, so paid-for aircraft aren't "free" from a capital-cost perspective, and regular maintenance is an operating cost. And one can put a "cost" on reduced-dispatch-reliability. But efficiencies in fuel consumption and reduced maintenance cost do not overwhelm the amortized capital cost of a new aircraft until it's being flown more than X hours per day, and sometimes even then.

John Leahey wasn't wrong when he said that he didn't need to build a 787 competitor anytime soon because all he had to do was reduce the price of the A330 to compensate for the fuel savings. Airbus of course ultimately felt that it needed to build the A350, but in retrospect, if they could have had the A330neo ten years ago, priced right, that's all they would have needed to put a serious hurt on the 787.

One also has to look at suitabiliity for a particular mission, in terms of capacity and other factors. Which is why "fleet simplification" is actually a negative driver on profitability after a certain point, because the aircraft being used isn't optimal for the mission.
 
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sat Sep 14, 2019 7:43 pm

PhilMcCrackin wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
Is this parts shortage affecting the 717 also? HA has to have them for interisland quick turns.


I doubt the 717 has many parts in common with the MD80/90. Different engines, different cockpit, different systems.

There has only been a handful of 717s scrapped, so there's enough of them still out there to keep the parts supply chain going.


DL maintains the BR715 in-house. I think that this major difference with the V2500D5 is a significant reason that the 717 will stick around while the MD90, sadly, is moribund, despite its favorable operating economics. Having to send the engines to Christchurch (the last overhauler of them) and pay a monopoly price for the work has to be a major factor in the decision to retire them.
 
SamTheGeek
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sat Sep 14, 2019 7:52 pm

FLALEFTY wrote:
It will be interesting to see what aircraft replaces these in some secondary Florida markets. For Delta, the MD88 has been the mainline mainstay for cities like DAB, SRQ, MLB, ECP, VPS, PNS & TLH. GNV


Have they said where the A220-300 will be flying yet?
 
Gulfstream500
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:48 pm

It still confuses me as to why they are retiring the MD-90 so early! Some A320s in their fleet are still older than the MD-90s, with some 717s in the fleet equally as old and not being retired until 2030... oh well.

If I were starting an airline and were looking for some cheap A/C, I’d gladly take the -90s off of DL’s hands...

***cough*** Moxy ***cough***
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jfern022
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:12 pm

Gulfstream500 wrote:
It still confuses me as to why they are retiring the MD-90 so early! Some A320s in their fleet are still older than the MD-90s, with some 717s in the fleet equally as old and not being retired until 2030... oh well.

If I were starting an airline and were looking for some cheap A/C, I’d gladly take the -90s off of DL’s hands...

***cough*** Moxy ***cough***


One of the main drivers is the V2500 becoming very expensive and time consuming to overhaul. There is an MRO in Christchurch who are the only ones left in the world doing the M90 variant of the V2500.
 
edealinfo
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:15 pm

lightsaber wrote:
I track MD-80s in service, I use a free source with a time lag and record in a spreadsheet:.

https://www.airfleets.net/exploit/production-md80.htm

Until 7/23/17 Delta had 181 MD-80+MD-90 (back then there were Qty 63 MD-90 and happens to be the first time I noticed a MD-90 retirement (drops to 62 registered to DL).

A few dates (total MD-80/90 and MD-90) at Delta
7/23/17 181 total with 63 MD-90
12/3/17. 170 total, 61 MD-90 (same qty 1/1/18)
1/7/18 168 total with 60 MD-90
3/8/18 164 total with 58 MD-90
6/2/18 157 total with 54 MD-90
9/7/28 148 total with 49 MD-90
1/5/19. 128 total with 40 MD-90
3/11/19 127 total with 37 MD-90
6/17/19 113 total with 36 MD-90
9/1/19 100 total with 32 MD-90
9/14/19 (today) 93 total with 30 MD-90

I find the accelerated retirements facinating as:
1. DL is the last MD-90 operator
In 21 months half the fleet retired
2. DL is the last major MD-80 operator (major being a viable 25+ sub-fleet)
With the slow season started, 5 MD-80 and 2 MD-90 removed from registry (retired)

There is an accelerating trend down. Not surprising as these leave the fleet in 2020.

Note:. Per airfleets there are still 243 MD-80/90 registered. Unfortunately, as when AA ceased support contracts followed by DL, the vendor supply chain is shut down. I've never before seen Pratt prematurely cease supporting an engine, but there was no business case to continue.

Lightsaber


Your excellent post misses a key detail. So, what aircraft is replacing the ones that are being retired?
 
blacksoviet
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:21 pm

Will any of the MD-88s or MD-90s end up in Iran?
 
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:25 pm

FLALEFTY wrote:
I found this on Flight Global concerning DL's MD88/90 retirement/replacement plans: https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... -m-457377/ Per this article, it seems that the MD90's will all be gone very soon & the MD88's will be down to 44 by the end of 2019, with full retirement by the end of 2020.

It will be interesting to see what aircraft replaces these in some secondary Florida markets. For Delta, the MD88 has been the mainline mainstay for cities like DAB, SRQ, MLB, ECP, VPS, PNS & TLH. GNV used to see MD88's, but now gets a lone A320, with the rest of the service being carried out by regional partners. (Note: I'm excluding larger Florida markets like PBI, RSW, TPA, JAX, MCO, FLL & MIA, which receive a broader mix of DL aircraft).


The A220! Look on streaming media. The A220 has gotten fantastic reviews from vloggers. Why keep operating an orphan when there is such a good replacement?
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:30 pm

blacksoviet wrote:
Will any of the MD-88s or MD-90s end up in Iran?


Not if US sanctions on Iran continue. Considering most of the boneyards that could supply spares are located in the US, it would be difficult to support the MD-88 or MD-90 in any country that the US does not like.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:43 pm

wave46 wrote:
An airline that keeps many old, different planes running daily probably should be called 'Lose Money Airlines'.

Do you somehow not realize that you're talking about what's arguably the most profitable airline on the planet...?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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lightsaber
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:49 pm

edealinfo wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I track MD-80s in service, I use a free source with a time lag and record in a spreadsheet:.

https://www.airfleets.net/exploit/production-md80.htm

Until 7/23/17 Delta had 181 MD-80+MD-90 (back then there were Qty 63 MD-90 and happens to be the first time I noticed a MD-90 retirement (drops to 62 registered to DL).

A few dates (total MD-80/90 and MD-90) at Delta
7/23/17 181 total with 63 MD-90
12/3/17. 170 total, 61 MD-90 (same qty 1/1/18)
1/7/18 168 total with 60 MD-90
3/8/18 164 total with 58 MD-90
6/2/18 157 total with 54 MD-90
9/7/28 148 total with 49 MD-90
1/5/19. 128 total with 40 MD-90
3/11/19 127 total with 37 MD-90
6/17/19 113 total with 36 MD-90
9/1/19 100 total with 32 MD-90
9/14/19 (today) 93 total with 30 MD-90

I find the accelerated retirements facinating as:
1. DL is the last MD-90 operator
In 21 months half the fleet retired
2. DL is the last major MD-80 operator (major being a viable 25+ sub-fleet)
With the slow season started, 5 MD-80 and 2 MD-90 removed from registry (retired)

There is an accelerating trend down. Not surprising as these leave the fleet in 2020.

Note:. Per airfleets there are still 243 MD-80/90 registered. Unfortunately, as when AA ceased support contracts followed by DL, the vendor supply chain is shut down. I've never before seen Pratt prematurely cease supporting an engine, but there was no business case to continue.

Lightsaber


Your excellent post misses a key detail. So, what aircraft is replacing the ones that are being retired?

It has been a mix. At DL the 739, A321, and C-series came in house. DL is upgauging big time.

At AA, the -8 MAx with a similar, if not lower cost per flight and more capacity which... has a hickup.

At Allegiant, the A320/A319 (mostly a small upgauging).

At this time narrowbody production is at a record high. In general, we see upgauging of both regional and all flights to 4 hours. E.g., EasyJet is growing A319 to A320 or even A321. Sadly, evidence of a maturing market.

Currently, used A319s are sold at scrap value. Bid $1 more than the scrapyard and it is yours. 737NG values were spiked by WN's 733 retirement and then the MAX.

Once the MAX re-enters service, the Narrowbody market goes into surplus. Plus A220 production and E2 production are climbing too. We're going to have a rationalization of the market.

Lightsaber
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OzarkD9S
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sat Sep 14, 2019 10:57 pm

Well I've got two trips booked on DL for the rest of the year. STL-ATL-JFK-ATL-STL and STL-ATL-GCM-ATL-STL and so far I'm getting an MD-88 on both trips. one segment out of four on both trips. Times running out!
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Which are the children of an idle brain." -Mercutio
 
MIflyer12
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:16 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Currently, used A319s are sold at scrap value. Bid $1 more than the scrapyard and it is yours. 737NG values were spiked by WN's 733 retirement and then the MAX.


That's an odd situation given the MAX groundings at AA and UA and their use of the type (plus by DL/AS/F9/G4/NK and many others). Are the operating economics of 319s really that bad?
 
jbs2886
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:30 pm

edealinfo wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I track MD-80s in service, I use a free source with a time lag and record in a spreadsheet:.

https://www.airfleets.net/exploit/production-md80.htm

Until 7/23/17 Delta had 181 MD-80+MD-90 (back then there were Qty 63 MD-90 and happens to be the first time I noticed a MD-90 retirement (drops to 62 registered to DL).

A few dates (total MD-80/90 and MD-90) at Delta
7/23/17 181 total with 63 MD-90
12/3/17. 170 total, 61 MD-90 (same qty 1/1/18)
1/7/18 168 total with 60 MD-90
3/8/18 164 total with 58 MD-90
6/2/18 157 total with 54 MD-90
9/7/28 148 total with 49 MD-90
1/5/19. 128 total with 40 MD-90
3/11/19 127 total with 37 MD-90
6/17/19 113 total with 36 MD-90
9/1/19 100 total with 32 MD-90
9/14/19 (today) 93 total with 30 MD-90

I find the accelerated retirements facinating as:
1. DL is the last MD-90 operator
In 21 months half the fleet retired
2. DL is the last major MD-80 operator (major being a viable 25+ sub-fleet)
With the slow season started, 5 MD-80 and 2 MD-90 removed from registry (retired)

There is an accelerating trend down. Not surprising as these leave the fleet in 2020.

Note:. Per airfleets there are still 243 MD-80/90 registered. Unfortunately, as when AA ceased support contracts followed by DL, the vendor supply chain is shut down. I've never before seen Pratt prematurely cease supporting an engine, but there was no business case to continue.

Lightsaber


Your excellent post misses a key detail. So, what aircraft is replacing the ones that are being retired?


This is the fallacy of a.net that there has to be 1-for-1 replacements. As lightsaber points out, it is a mix of aircraft of varying numbers.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:41 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Currently, used A319s are sold at scrap value. Bid $1 more than the scrapyard and it is yours. 737NG values were spiked by WN's 733 retirement and then the MAX.


That's an odd situation given the MAX groundings at AA and UA and their use of the type (plus by DL/AS/F9/G4/NK and many others). Are the operating economics of 319s really that bad?

The opperating economics of the A320 are that much better. PiPs always favor the economics of larger variants. One reason the MD-80 is being retired is there is absolutely no maintenance cost advantage on the engines between the A319 and A320 with the latest PiPs. Once upon a time the A319 engine lasted 20,000 cycles, the A320 16,000, and the A321 about 9,000. Since the overhaul was about $2.5 million for each engine,
a319 was $250 of engine overhaul or total $386 per takeoff in engine maintenance.
A320 was $446 per takeoff, plus more fuel burn
The A321 had such a high engine maintenance bill, it didn't sell well

With engine PiPs and Sharklets, they gave the same engine maintenance bill and almost the same fuel bill.

WN likes the 73G, and it has an appropriately sized wing instead of a simple shrink. All simple shrinks suffer in resale value. It saves tens of thousands of engineering hours, but the excessive weight and aerodynamic drag creates poor economics. In particular since many A319 were sold for range met with the A320 with Sharklets and engine PiPs. Then the A320 has lower cost per flight than the A319.

If you need to save cost per flight, power by the hour, training centers, and Leasing make it far cheaper to have a sub-fleet of E190s, E2s, A220s, and soon MRJs than A319s. There is a reason I beat the drum on Airbus increasing A321NEO production; after the first major engine PiP +example, CMCs) demand, including resale, will upgauge.

So there is no hope of a MD-80 revival. Thanks to Leasing, you even have Volotea replacing 717 with used A319s. Cebu Pacific dumped A319s back to Leasing companies in 2017/2018. EasyJet, the largest opperator of the A319, is returning them to leasors quickly. Those A319s are finding the homes we ascribe to MD-80s.

Note, used MD-80s go for under a million;. SL bought dozens for $300k. Used A319s are worth above $8.5 million. Heck, used engines are worth $2.5 million+ each. The problem for the MD-80 is it is worth what DL thinks the engines are worth for 6 to 9 months of opperations. The used A319 is worth what dozens of airlines think the engines and parts are worth (which is a lot).

Let's put it another way, the MD-80 burns 25% more fuel than a 738 (slightly more than an A320), has less range, higher per cycle maintenance costs, no predictive maintenance to warn of a malfunction prior to stranded passengers, and far less range.

With A319s so cheap, payoff in under 3 years, do you really wonder why the MD-80 is fading.

I should have mentioned AA looked at used A319s to replace MD-80s. Airbus made a killer offer on new A319s that ensures AA bought new, creating a surplus of A319s.

So not horrible economics, just very little in savings. Why fly an A319 with 156 vs. A320 with 186 (ULCC config, who buys dirt cheap) when the cost per flight difference is almost down to the purchase price decision?

Lightsaber
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Dalmd88
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sun Sep 15, 2019 1:18 am

There is no new news here. The "accelerated" retirement has been in the plan for quite a while. Summer season is ending so less extra aircraft are required to cope with summer ops issues and the schedule I believe pulls pack a little in the fall.

'In another thread it was noted DL is having to lease power by the hour engines to sustain the minimal MD-80 fleet:" This is a misunderstanding. It's not that DL is having to lease engines, DL and I bet the same was true at AA, they have chosen to lease engines near the end of the fleet life. Why would you spend $1 million a engine to overhaul the engine when you only need it for about half of it's expected life? The answer is power by the hour lease. It's just good business sense. Only pay for what you need, plus you can shut down your JT8 shop and use the space and personnel for something that makes you more money(GTF startup).

Just to add I still think the 717 is on borrowed time. Once the MD88/90 are gone the 717 will start to be phased out. Many say they don't share many parts, sorry they all share a lot on the airframe side. All those special sheetmetal parts that get replaced during heavy check are going to get real hard to come by. Yes, DL works the BR715 in house. That space is needed for higher value work in the future. In the next 18 months there are a lot of BR shop visits on the schedule. I think that after that huge volume hump pushes through, the economics of the BR and the 717 start to wane compared to the growing A220 fleet. That floor space will be needed for the GTF work as it grows. I had the chance to move to the BR shop and passed on it because I think it is a short term shop.
 
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Super80Fan
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sun Sep 15, 2019 1:26 am

Are we sure all of these MD88's are being "retired" and not just going into storage until the summer season next year? As far as I know SBD bound MD88's/MD90's are done, heading for permanent retirement or the scrapper while BHM ones are just there for storage until next year.
Last edited by Super80Fan on Sun Sep 15, 2019 1:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
RIP McDonnell Douglas
RIP US Airways
 
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Super80Fan
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sun Sep 15, 2019 1:26 am

Dalmd88 wrote:
Just to add I still think the 717 is on borrowed time. Once the MD88/90 are gone the 717 will start to be phased out. Many say they don't share many parts, sorry they all share a lot on the airframe side. All those special sheetmetal parts that get replaced during heavy check are going to get real hard to come by. Yes, DL works the BR715 in house. That space is needed for higher value work in the future. In the next 18 months there are a lot of BR shop visits on the schedule. I think that after that huge volume hump pushes through, the economics of the BR and the 717 start to wane compared to the growing A220 fleet. That floor space will be needed for the GTF work as it grows. I had the chance to move to the BR shop and passed on it because I think it is a short term shop.


You have no idea what you're talking about in regards to this paragraph.
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Dalmd88
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sun Sep 15, 2019 1:38 am

Super80Fan wrote:
Are we sure all of these MD88's are being "retired" and not just going into storage until the summer season next year? As far as I know SBD bound MD88's/MD90's are done, heading for permanent retirement or the scrapper while BHM ones are just there for storage until next year.

They are due either HMV or C check. None will likely ever fly again.
 
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sun Sep 15, 2019 1:44 am

Dalmd88 wrote:
Super80Fan wrote:
Are we sure all of these MD88's are being "retired" and not just going into storage until the summer season next year? As far as I know SBD bound MD88's/MD90's are done, heading for permanent retirement or the scrapper while BHM ones are just there for storage until next year.

They are due either HMV or C check. None will likely ever fly again.


Some birds that recently flew to SBD will undergo a C check and RTS to cover for NEO delays.
 
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sun Sep 15, 2019 1:47 am

Super80Fan wrote:
Dalmd88 wrote:
Just to add I still think the 717 is on borrowed time. Once the MD88/90 are gone the 717 will start to be phased out. Many say they don't share many parts, sorry they all share a lot on the airframe side. All those special sheetmetal parts that get replaced during heavy check are going to get real hard to come by. Yes, DL works the BR715 in house. That space is needed for higher value work in the future. In the next 18 months there are a lot of BR shop visits on the schedule. I think that after that huge volume hump pushes through, the economics of the BR and the 717 start to wane compared to the growing A220 fleet. That floor space will be needed for the GTF work as it grows. I had the chance to move to the BR shop and passed on it because I think it is a short term shop.


You have no idea what you're talking about in regards to this paragraph.

Hey it my opinion. I could be wrong but I think I have a pretty good pulse to what is going on. a lot of people here think just because we do the BR work in house means it's not going away. I don't buy that argument. We need a lot of floor space for the GTF in a few years. It is going to come from somewhere. As for the airframe parts, I worked MD88/90 overhaul for years. There are going to be a lot of hard to come by parts soon. That killed the DC8 and the L-1011.
 
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sun Sep 15, 2019 1:50 am

Super80Fan wrote:
Dalmd88 wrote:
Just to add I still think the 717 is on borrowed time. Once the MD88/90 are gone the 717 will start to be phased out. Many say they don't share many parts, sorry they all share a lot on the airframe side. All those special sheetmetal parts that get replaced during heavy check are going to get real hard to come by. Yes, DL works the BR715 in house. That space is needed for higher value work in the future. In the next 18 months there are a lot of BR shop visits on the schedule. I think that after that huge volume hump pushes through, the economics of the BR and the 717 start to wane compared to the growing A220 fleet. That floor space will be needed for the GTF work as it grows. I had the chance to move to the BR shop and passed on it because I think it is a short term shop.


You have no idea what you're talking about in regards to this paragraph.


How so? His argument is that Delta could use the real estate used for the BR shop to overhaul other engines. That is undeniable.

The 717 BR715 engine shares a lot of commonality with the BR710 and BR725 used on aircraft like the Global Express and Gulfstream G550/G650. It will therefore continue be supported for a long time to come, and MROs will continue to overhaul the type. Therefore there is less need for Delta to support the type in-house if they can use their scarce resources (real estate, labor) for more profitable work. They can outsource the BR715 overhauls, and if/when the number of MROs start to dwindle and the cost of overhauls starts to go up they can park the type like they are doing with the MD-90. The difference is that unlike the MD-90 the type will continue to be supported for a long time to come.
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:02 am

Noticed ATL-DAB is slowly losing the MD-88s in favor of the 717s. Glad I got at least one more trip in before they go. I'm going to miss them.
 
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sun Sep 15, 2019 6:56 am

Dalmd88 wrote:
Super80Fan wrote:
Dalmd88 wrote:
Just to add I still think the 717 is on borrowed time. Once the MD88/90 are gone the 717 will start to be phased out. Many say they don't share many parts, sorry they all share a lot on the airframe side. All those special sheetmetal parts that get replaced during heavy check are going to get real hard to come by. Yes, DL works the BR715 in house. That space is needed for higher value work in the future. In the next 18 months there are a lot of BR shop visits on the schedule. I think that after that huge volume hump pushes through, the economics of the BR and the 717 start to wane compared to the growing A220 fleet. That floor space will be needed for the GTF work as it grows. I had the chance to move to the BR shop and passed on it because I think it is a short term shop.


You have no idea what you're talking about in regards to this paragraph.

Hey it my opinion. I could be wrong but I think I have a pretty good pulse to what is going on. a lot of people here think just because we do the BR work in house means it's not going away. I don't buy that argument. We need a lot of floor space for the GTF in a few years. It is going to come from somewhere. As for the airframe parts, I worked MD88/90 overhaul for years. There are going to be a lot of hard to come by parts soon. That killed the DC8 and the L-1011.

Subsystems and cockpit, the 717 is very different. I thought similar about the 717 until Delta seems to be extending leases and installing IFE. There seems to be a push to keep at least another 7 years.

ADS-B is coming. That puts a damper on the MD-80 future. How many MD-80/90 are under contract for an upgrade?

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MIflyer12
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sun Sep 15, 2019 12:34 pm

lightsaber wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Currently, used A319s are sold at scrap value. Bid $1 more than the scrapyard and it is yours. 737NG values were spiked by WN's 733 retirement and then the MAX.


That's an odd situation given the MAX groundings at AA and UA and their use of the type (plus by DL/AS/F9/G4/NK and many others). Are the operating economics of 319s really that bad?

The opperating economics of the A320 are that much better. PiPs always favor the economics of larger variants. One reason the MD-80 is being retired is there is absolutely no maintenance cost advantage on the engines between the A319 and A320 with the latest PiPs. Once upon a time the A319 engine lasted 20,000 cycles, the A320 16,000, and the A321 about 9,000. Since the overhaul was about $2.5 million for each engine,
a319 was $250 of engine overhaul or total $386 per takeoff in engine maintenance.
A320 was $446 per takeoff, plus more fuel burn
The A321 had such a high engine maintenance bill, it didn't sell well

With engine PiPs and Sharklets, they gave the same engine maintenance bill and almost the same fuel bill.

WN likes the 73G, and it has an appropriately sized wing instead of a simple shrink. All simple shrinks suffer in resale value. It saves tens of thousands of engineering hours, but the excessive weight and aerodynamic drag creates poor economics. In particular since many A319 were sold for range met with the A320 with Sharklets and engine PiPs. Then the A320 has lower cost per flight than the A319.

If you need to save cost per flight, power by the hour, training centers, and Leasing make it far cheaper to have a sub-fleet of E190s, E2s, A220s, and soon MRJs than A319s. There is a reason I beat the drum on Airbus increasing A321NEO production; after the first major engine PiP +example, CMCs) demand, including resale, will upgauge.

So there is no hope of a MD-80 revival. Thanks to Leasing, you even have Volotea replacing 717 with used A319s. Cebu Pacific dumped A319s back to Leasing companies in 2017/2018. EasyJet, the largest opperator of the A319, is returning them to leasors quickly. Those A319s are finding the homes we ascribe to MD-80s.

Note, used MD-80s go for under a million;. SL bought dozens for $300k. Used A319s are worth above $8.5 million. Heck, used engines are worth $2.5 million+ each. The problem for the MD-80 is it is worth what DL thinks the engines are worth for 6 to 9 months of opperations. The used A319 is worth what dozens of airlines think the engines and parts are worth (which is a lot).

Let's put it another way, the MD-80 burns 25% more fuel than a 738 (slightly more than an A320), has less range, higher per cycle maintenance costs, no predictive maintenance to warn of a malfunction prior to stranded passengers, and far less range.

With A319s so cheap, payoff in under 3 years, do you really wonder why the MD-80 is fading.

I should have mentioned AA looked at used A319s to replace MD-80s. Airbus made a killer offer on new A319s that ensures AA bought new, creating a surplus of A319s.

So not horrible economics, just very little in savings. Why fly an A319 with 156 vs. A320 with 186 (ULCC config, who buys dirt cheap) when the cost per flight difference is almost down to the purchase price decision?

Lightsaber


I respect your posting history but I'm not sure you're telling a consistent story here.

$8.5 million for a 319 is a lot more than $1. (Maybe you were engaging in a little playful hyperbole above.)

Sure, 320s are more efficient than 319s but you started by saying there are many cheap 319s. Lots of aircraft types - even 757s - have CASMs better than a 319, but if acquisition cost is low enough for a well-supported aircraft the market should clear. 319s aren't low-volume orphans like 717s and 345s.

My question notes that lots of carriers presently operating 319s need capacity (AA/UA for MAX groundings; lots of other U.S. carriers could lower capital spending by deferring new deliveries) so I don't understand why they're not being snapped up (by carriers other than UA, anyway).

Yes, I understand there is little future for MD-80/MD-88s.
Last edited by MIflyer12 on Sun Sep 15, 2019 12:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:03 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

That's an odd situation given the MAX groundings at AA and UA and their use of the type (plus by DL/AS/F9/G4/NK and many others). Are the operating economics of 319s really that bad?

The opperating economics of the A320 are that much better. PiPs always favor the economics of larger variants. One reason the MD-80 is being retired is there is absolutely no maintenance cost advantage on the engines between the A319 and A320 with the latest PiPs. Once upon a time the A319 engine lasted 20,000 cycles, the A320 16,000, and the A321 about 9,000. Since the overhaul was about $2.5 million for each engine,
a319 was $250 of engine overhaul or total $386 per takeoff in engine maintenance.
A320 was $446 per takeoff, plus more fuel burn
The A321 had such a high engine maintenance bill, it didn't sell well

With engine PiPs and Sharklets, they gave the same engine maintenance bill and almost the same fuel bill.

WN likes the 73G, and it has an appropriately sized wing instead of a simple shrink. All simple shrinks suffer in resale value. It saves tens of thousands of engineering hours, but the excessive weight and aerodynamic drag creates poor economics. In particular since many A319 were sold for range met with the A320 with Sharklets and engine PiPs. Then the A320 has lower cost per flight than the A319.

If you need to save cost per flight, power by the hour, training centers, and Leasing make it far cheaper to have a sub-fleet of E190s, E2s, A220s, and soon MRJs than A319s. There is a reason I beat the drum on Airbus increasing A321NEO production; after the first major engine PiP +example, CMCs) demand, including resale, will upgauge.

So there is no hope of a MD-80 revival. Thanks to Leasing, you even have Volotea replacing 717 with used A319s. Cebu Pacific dumped A319s back to Leasing companies in 2017/2018. EasyJet, the largest opperator of the A319, is returning them to leasors quickly. Those A319s are finding the homes we ascribe to MD-80s.

Note, used MD-80s go for under a million;. SL bought dozens for $300k. Used A319s are worth above $8.5 million. Heck, used engines are worth $2.5 million+ each. The problem for the MD-80 is it is worth what DL thinks the engines are worth for 6 to 9 months of opperations. The used A319 is worth what dozens of airlines think the engines and parts are worth (which is a lot).

Let's put it another way, the MD-80 burns 25% more fuel than a 738 (slightly more than an A320), has less range, higher per cycle maintenance costs, no predictive maintenance to warn of a malfunction prior to stranded passengers, and far less range.

With A319s so cheap, payoff in under 3 years, do you really wonder why the MD-80 is fading.

I should have mentioned AA looked at used A319s to replace MD-80s. Airbus made a killer offer on new A319s that ensures AA bought new, creating a surplus of A319s.

So not horrible economics, just very little in savings. Why fly an A319 with 156 vs. A320 with 186 (ULCC config, who buys dirt cheap) when the cost per flight difference is almost down to the purchase price decision?

Lightsaber


I respect your posting history but I'm not sure you're telling a consistent story here.

$8.5 million for a 319 is a lot more than $1. (Maybe you were engaging in a little playful hyperbole above.)

Sure, 320s are more efficient than 319s but you started by saying there are many cheap 319s. Lots of aircraft types - even 757s - have CASMs better than a 319, but if acquisition cost is low enough for a well-supported aircraft the market should clear. 319s aren't low-volume orphans like 717s and 345s.

My question notes that lots of carriers presently operating 319s need capacity (AA/UA for MAX groundings; lots of other U.S. carriers could lower capital spending by deferring new deliveries) so I don't understand why they're not being snapped up (by carriers other than UA, anyway).

Yes, I understand there is little future for MD-80/MD-88s.


UA and AA are both adding used capacity in that range, with AA/UA getting used A319s and UA also adding used 73Gs. AA has moved on the MAX shortfall by doing a 180 and not retiring the first 20-something 738s that were scheduled to leave the fleet next year, extending the life on 4 A320s that were to be parked, and extending the life of the former-US 757s that were also going to get parked.

But in the meantime this week we've seen 2 BA A319s head to the scrapper with serial numbers in the 1600s. The 3 A320s to hit the scrapper this week were very low serial numbers and one in the 600s (ex-ANA, so stupid-high cycles). The market is showing that besides a few oportunistic buys, the A319 is good for parts. Hell, even the A32X series white paper linked int he fleet extensions thread specifically said the older A320x models are only worth what you can get for their engines.
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:23 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
Super80Fan wrote:
Dalmd88 wrote:
Just to add I still think the 717 is on borrowed time. Once the MD88/90 are gone the 717 will start to be phased out. Many say they don't share many parts, sorry they all share a lot on the airframe side. All those special sheetmetal parts that get replaced during heavy check are going to get real hard to come by. Yes, DL works the BR715 in house. That space is needed for higher value work in the future. In the next 18 months there are a lot of BR shop visits on the schedule. I think that after that huge volume hump pushes through, the economics of the BR and the 717 start to wane compared to the growing A220 fleet. That floor space will be needed for the GTF work as it grows. I had the chance to move to the BR shop and passed on it because I think it is a short term shop.


You have no idea what you're talking about in regards to this paragraph.


How so? His argument is that Delta could use the real estate used for the BR shop to overhaul other engines. That is undeniable.

The 717 BR715 engine shares a lot of commonality with the BR710 and BR725 used on aircraft like the Global Express and Gulfstream G550/G650. It will therefore continue be supported for a long time to come, and MROs will continue to overhaul the type. Therefore there is less need for Delta to support the type in-house if they can use their scarce resources (real estate, labor) for more profitable work. They can outsource the BR715 overhauls, and if/when the number of MROs start to dwindle and the cost of overhauls starts to go up they can park the type like they are doing with the MD-90. The difference is that unlike the MD-90 the type will continue to be supported for a long time to come.


He’s wrong in regards to the “717 is on borrowed time” considering Delta just renewed the leases for at least another 8-10 years along with installing IFE. The MD88’s/MD90’s might not be long for this world but the 717’s will be here for a while.
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mcg
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sun Sep 15, 2019 4:51 pm

jfern022 wrote:
Gulfstream500 wrote:
It still confuses me as to why they are retiring the MD-90 so early! Some A320s in their fleet are still older than the MD-90s, with some 717s in the fleet equally as old and not being retired until 2030... oh well.

If I were starting an airline and were looking for some cheap A/C, I’d gladly take the -90s off of DL’s hands...

***cough*** Moxy ***cough***


One of the main drivers is the V2500 becoming very expensive and time consuming to overhaul. There is an MRO in Christchurch who are the only ones left in the world doing the M90 variant of the V2500.


What were the circumstances that result in the only V2500 maintenance shop being many thousands of miles from where these engines are operated? It just seems odd to me. Any info appreciated.
 
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sun Sep 15, 2019 4:57 pm

Super80Fan wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
Super80Fan wrote:

You have no idea what you're talking about in regards to this paragraph.


How so? His argument is that Delta could use the real estate used for the BR shop to overhaul other engines. That is undeniable.

The 717 BR715 engine shares a lot of commonality with the BR710 and BR725 used on aircraft like the Global Express and Gulfstream G550/G650. It will therefore continue be supported for a long time to come, and MROs will continue to overhaul the type. Therefore there is less need for Delta to support the type in-house if they can use their scarce resources (real estate, labor) for more profitable work. They can outsource the BR715 overhauls, and if/when the number of MROs start to dwindle and the cost of overhauls starts to go up they can park the type like they are doing with the MD-90. The difference is that unlike the MD-90 the type will continue to be supported for a long time to come.


He’s wrong in regards to the “717 is on borrowed time” considering Delta just renewed the leases for at least another 8-10 years along with installing IFE. The MD88’s/MD90’s might not be long for this world but the 717’s will be here for a while.


Was there any sourcing to the renewals and IFE installation at APEX expo DL said they hadn't made a decision yet.
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:31 pm

some MD90 will fly again hopefully/..
 
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sun Sep 15, 2019 6:01 pm

danipawa wrote:
some MD90 will fly again hopefully/..


I wouldn't hold my breath on that one.
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sun Sep 15, 2019 6:29 pm

lightsaber wrote:
...
ADS-B is coming. That puts a damper on the MD-80 future. How many MD-80/90 are under contract for an upgrade?

Lightsaber


That's something I don't get, and any info is appreciated. It is understood that ADS-B is mandatory for all commercial aircraft in the US, come January 1, 2020.
Now, most opinions I've heard -- were that MD-80 are not cheaply upgradable, and it made sense to retire them before that date. Once you've done the upgrade, you've spent so much money -- it now makes sense to operate them, till the economics of the type become unbearably bad.
AA, in this respect, fits the reasonable forecast -- they retired their MD-80 fleet, and are not concerned with reequipping those birds with ADS-B equipment, and upgrade of associated electric systems.

Delta does not fit the reasonable forecast -- apparently, they will go through a lot of trouble and expense, to get a part of their MD-80 fleet crammed with new wiring, etc., plus ADS-B equipment -- so it's legal to fly it after 01.01.2020 -- only to retire this fleet before 2020 is through. What am I missing?

mcg wrote:
...
What were the circumstances that result in the only V2500 maintenance shop being many thousands of miles from where these engines are operated? It just seems odd to me. Any info appreciated.

It appears (don't quote me on that) that Delta overplayed their hand in trying to squeeze MRO suppliers on costs. Basically, they tried to pitch different shops against each other, in the quest for lower offers. Some suppliers found that it made no sense to maintain all the paperwork and training, to stay "current" as licensed suppliers of overhaul services for -D5 version of the engines, when either no work was forthcoming, or expected pay was too low.
And then... it turned out that all MRO's, certified to overhaul -D5's, allowed their certification to lapse, save for one -- the one in Christchurch. Now, Delta sleeps in the bed it has made for itself, and probably the bed is uncomfortable enough, to bring MD-90 retirement forward.
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dcajet
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:04 pm

Phosphorus wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
...
ADS-B is coming. That puts a damper on the MD-80 future. How many MD-80/90 are under contract for an upgrade?

Lightsaber


That's something I don't get, and any info is appreciated. It is understood that ADS-B is mandatory for all commercial aircraft in the US, come January 1, 2020.
Now, most opinions I've heard -- were that MD-80 are not cheaply upgradable, and it made sense to retire them before that date. Once you've done the upgrade, you've spent so much money -- it now makes sense to operate them, till the economics of the type become unbearably bad.
AA, in this respect, fits the reasonable forecast -- they retired their MD-80 fleet, and are not concerned with reequipping those birds with ADS-B equipment, and upgrade of associated electric systems.

Delta does not fit the reasonable forecast -- apparently, they will go through a lot of trouble and expense, to get a part of their MD-80 fleet crammed with new wiring, etc., plus ADS-B equipment -- so it's legal to fly it after 01.01.2020 -- only to retire this fleet before 2020 is through. What am I missing?

mcg wrote:
...
What were the circumstances that result in the only V2500 maintenance shop being many thousands of miles from where these engines are operated? It just seems odd to me. Any info appreciated.

It appears (don't quote me on that) that Delta overplayed their hand in trying to squeeze MRO suppliers on costs. Basically, they tried to pitch different shops against each other, in the quest for lower offers. Some suppliers found that it made no sense to maintain all the paperwork and training, to stay "current" as licensed suppliers of overhaul services for -D5 version of the engines, when either no work was forthcoming, or expected pay was too low.
And then... it turned out that all MRO's, certified to overhaul -D5's, allowed their certification to lapse, save for one -- the one in Christchurch. Now, Delta sleeps in the bed it has made for itself, and probably the bed is uncomfortable enough, to bring MD-90 retirement forward.


Very good question. Perhaps Delta was granted a waiver for the MD88 subfleet until they are gone for good - end of 2020?
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sun Sep 15, 2019 9:11 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:


$8.5 million for a 319 is a lot more than $1. (Maybe you were engaging in a little playful hyperbole above.)
.

I said $1 more than scrap, please do not cut out important words when quoting me. I assumed people look at the aircraft value and lease threads and have an idea of used values.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1422705

Now, an A319 can be as low as $4 million with... Lacking PiPs, no Sharklets and out of date avionics, gear in need of overhaul, and... Well, that would be the dregs.

$8.5 million is for scrap of a modern flyable example with everything but ASS-B (cheap addition for A32x aircraft, perhaps $250k). Of 14 year old frames that should be going for $14+ million. That is cheap. Cheap enough to replace 717s, certainly MD-80s.

Anyone who follows my postings knows I evaluate aircraft on all economics. That includes vs. scrapping.

The MD-80 is now $350k to $850k (I assume golden engines and landing gear with life). Avionics could add quite a bit more, but the MD-80s are antiques by aviation standards.

To others:
How many ADS-B converted MD-88/90 have been completed? Come January 1st, US and EU flying require it in congested airspaces (includes ATL).

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Phosphorus
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sun Sep 15, 2019 9:46 pm

dcajet wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
...
ADS-B is coming. That puts a damper on the MD-80 future. How many MD-80/90 are under contract for an upgrade?

Lightsaber


That's something I don't get, and any info is appreciated. It is understood that ADS-B is mandatory for all commercial aircraft in the US, come January 1, 2020.
Now, most opinions I've heard -- were that MD-80 are not cheaply upgradable, and it made sense to retire them before that date. Once you've done the upgrade, you've spent so much money -- it now makes sense to operate them, till the economics of the type become unbearably bad.
AA, in this respect, fits the reasonable forecast -- they retired their MD-80 fleet, and are not concerned with reequipping those birds with ADS-B equipment, and upgrade of associated electric systems.

Delta does not fit the reasonable forecast -- apparently, they will go through a lot of trouble and expense, to get a part of their MD-80 fleet crammed with new wiring, etc., plus ADS-B equipment -- so it's legal to fly it after 01.01.2020 -- only to retire this fleet before 2020 is through. What am I missing?
...


Very good question. Perhaps Delta was granted a waiver for the MD88 subfleet until they are gone for good - end of 2020?


Well, the very fact of a waiver to an operation of dozens of aircraft, this way, would be a bit disturbing.

It's ADS-B, these things are smart, and allow for many improvements in ATC, taking away some burden from air traffic controllers, including, ad extremis, self-separation, from what I've read.

However -- systems like these, work well, when everyone has them. If you organize air traffic with full understanding ADS-B plays a key role, then an aircraft without ADS-B is literally a risk.
Somewhat like a group of drivers, brandishing a waiver to continue driving, for a while, on the left side of the road, in Sweden, after https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dagen_H
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lightsaber
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sun Sep 15, 2019 9:54 pm

Phosphorus wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
...
ADS-B is coming. That puts a damper on the MD-80 future. How many MD-80/90 are under contract for an upgrade?

Lightsaber


That's something I don't get, and any info is appreciated. It is understood that ADS-B is mandatory for all commercial aircraft in the US, come January 1, 2020.
Now, most opinions I've heard -- were that MD-80 are not cheaply upgradable, and it made sense to retire them before that date. Once you've done the upgrade, you've spent so much money -- it now makes sense to operate them, till the economics of the type become unbearably bad.
AA, in this respect, fits the reasonable forecast -- they retired their MD-80 fleet, and are not concerned with reequipping those birds with ADS-B equipment, and upgrade of associated electric systems.

Delta does not fit the reasonable forecast -- apparently, they will go through a lot of trouble and expense, to get a part of their MD-80 fleet crammed with new wiring, etc., plus ADS-B equipment -- so it's legal to fly it after 01.01.2020 -- only to retire this fleet before 2020 is through. What am I missing?

mcg wrote:
...
What were the circumstances that result in the only V2500 maintenance shop being many thousands of miles from where these engines are operated? It just seems odd to me. Any info appreciated.

It appears (don't quote me on that) that Delta overplayed their hand in trying to squeeze MRO suppliers on costs. Basically, they tried to pitch different shops against each other, in the quest for lower offers. Some suppliers found that it made no sense to maintain all the paperwork and training, to stay "current" as licensed suppliers of overhaul services for -D5 version of the engines, when either no work was forthcoming, or expected pay was too low.
And then... it turned out that all MRO's, certified to overhaul -D5's, allowed their certification to lapse, save for one -- the one in Christchurch. Now, Delta sleeps in the bed it has made for itself, and probably the bed is uncomfortable enough, to bring MD-90 retirement forward.

I too am missing why 2020 retirement after ADS-B. I do not design avionics (but I am currently deep in complicated avionics testing few can manage), and oh do I dislike rewiring (Recent experience on why I avoid managing that pain.)... Expensive

The V2500D5 is definitely a bed of DL's making. It's like an employer minimizing wages, then wondering at attrition... MROs have minimum profit targets too, I wonder if the last remaining was by paperwork timing fluke? (I don't know.). That is a classic business case study.

Lightsaber
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Spacepope
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sun Sep 15, 2019 9:56 pm

Phosphorus wrote:
dcajet wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:

That's something I don't get, and any info is appreciated. It is understood that ADS-B is mandatory for all commercial aircraft in the US, come January 1, 2020.
Now, most opinions I've heard -- were that MD-80 are not cheaply upgradable, and it made sense to retire them before that date. Once you've done the upgrade, you've spent so much money -- it now makes sense to operate them, till the economics of the type become unbearably bad.
AA, in this respect, fits the reasonable forecast -- they retired their MD-80 fleet, and are not concerned with reequipping those birds with ADS-B equipment, and upgrade of associated electric systems.

Delta does not fit the reasonable forecast -- apparently, they will go through a lot of trouble and expense, to get a part of their MD-80 fleet crammed with new wiring, etc., plus ADS-B equipment -- so it's legal to fly it after 01.01.2020 -- only to retire this fleet before 2020 is through. What am I missing?
...


Very good question. Perhaps Delta was granted a waiver for the MD88 subfleet until they are gone for good - end of 2020?


Well, the very fact of a waiver to an operation of dozens of aircraft, this way, would be a bit disturbing.

It's ADS-B, these things are smart, and allow for many improvements in ATC, taking away some burden from air traffic controllers, including, ad extremis, self-separation, from what I've read.

However -- systems like these, work well, when everyone has them. If you organize air traffic with full understanding ADS-B plays a key role, then an aircraft without ADS-B is literally a risk.
Somewhat like a group of drivers, brandishing a waiver to continue driving, for a while, on the left side of the road, in Sweden, after https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dagen_H

What’s all this “waiver” talk? DL had been equipping it’s MD-88 fleet with ADS-B for quite a while. No need for a waiver, no danger to the public.
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Phosphorus
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sun Sep 15, 2019 10:02 pm

Spacepope wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:
dcajet wrote:

Very good question. Perhaps Delta was granted a waiver for the MD88 subfleet until they are gone for good - end of 2020?


Well, the very fact of a waiver to an operation of dozens of aircraft, this way, would be a bit disturbing.

It's ADS-B, these things are smart, and allow for many improvements in ATC, taking away some burden from air traffic controllers, including, ad extremis, self-separation, from what I've read.

However -- systems like these, work well, when everyone has them. If you organize air traffic with full understanding ADS-B plays a key role, then an aircraft without ADS-B is literally a risk.
Somewhat like a group of drivers, brandishing a waiver to continue driving, for a while, on the left side of the road, in Sweden, after https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dagen_H

What’s all this “waiver” talk? DL had been equipping it’s MD-88 fleet with ADS-B for quite a while. No need for a waiver, no danger to the public.


Thanks, that would make a lot of sense.
However, are the operational economics that atrocious, as to make this upgrade (and all the costs it involved) insufficient to prevent Delta from retiring MD-80 in 2020?
AN4 A40 L4T TU3 TU5 IL6 ILW I93 F50 F70 100 146 ARJ AT7 DH4 L10 CRJ ERJ E90 E95 DC-9 MD-8X YK4 YK2 SF3 S20 319 320 321 332 333 343 346 722 732 733 734 735 73G 738 739 744 74M 757 767 777
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lightsaber
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Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sun Sep 15, 2019 10:24 pm

Spacepope wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:
dcajet wrote:

Very good question. Perhaps Delta was granted a waiver for the MD88 subfleet until they are gone for good - end of 2020?


Well, the very fact of a waiver to an operation of dozens of aircraft, this way, would be a bit disturbing.

It's ADS-B, these things are smart, and allow for many improvements in ATC, taking away some burden from air traffic controllers, including, ad extremis, self-separation, from what I've read.

However -- systems like these, work well, when everyone has them. If you organize air traffic with full understanding ADS-B plays a key role, then an aircraft without ADS-B is literally a risk.
Somewhat like a group of drivers, brandishing a waiver to continue driving, for a while, on the left side of the road, in Sweden, after https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dagen_H

What’s all this “waiver” talk? DL had been equipping it’s MD-88 fleet with ADS-B for quite a while. No need for a waiver, no danger to the public.

Thank you. The question is how many MD-80 or MD-90? I figured there were some, but costs exceeded expectations.

Lightsaber
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DeltaMD95
Posts: 502
Joined: Sun Aug 24, 2014 5:37 am

Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

Sun Sep 15, 2019 11:31 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Spacepope wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:

Well, the very fact of a waiver to an operation of dozens of aircraft, this way, would be a bit disturbing.

It's ADS-B, these things are smart, and allow for many improvements in ATC, taking away some burden from air traffic controllers, including, ad extremis, self-separation, from what I've read.

However -- systems like these, work well, when everyone has them. If you organize air traffic with full understanding ADS-B plays a key role, then an aircraft without ADS-B is literally a risk.
Somewhat like a group of drivers, brandishing a waiver to continue driving, for a while, on the left side of the road, in Sweden, after https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dagen_H

What’s all this “waiver” talk? DL had been equipping it’s MD-88 fleet with ADS-B for quite a while. No need for a waiver, no danger to the public.

Thank you. The question is how many MD-80 or MD-90? I figured there were some, but costs exceeded expectations.

Lightsaber


I am under the impression from older, lengthy forum discussions that a portion of the MD90 fleet already was ADS-B compliant. Back to its time of original manufacture. Whether they are the former SK, original 16, or other I am not sure. Could any of the folks in the know confirm if this is the case?
Did you know that a Boeing 717-200 is really a McDonnell Douglas MD95-30? ;-)

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