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OAG Changes 9/15/2019:F9 Adds MCI/GRB-MCO,CUN-IND;AA/AS/B6/DL/UA/WN

Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2019 12:21 pm
by enilria
FAQ

AS OF JULY 2018 THERE ARE CHANGES TO THE FORMAT OF THIS REPORT...SEE BELOW

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares departures for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...prior year departures are now shown in brackets e.g. [0].

THE SCHEDULES SHOWN HERE CHANGE AFTER YOU POST???
-To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often---Winston Churchill. This is data the carriers filed at the point in time it was captured. It's changed since then. You are just going to have to live with it.

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5[4] JAN 4>5[4]
XXX Departure IATA code, YYY Arrival IATA code, Month, Average Departures/Day over the month for sale as of last week, Average Departures/Day over the month for sale as of this week, in brackets is the number of Average Departures/Day over the month that were scheduled one year earlier. So, it means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. It also means that there were 4 roundtrips the prior year in each month. No other months were changed. I average two directions.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
NEW CHANGE-Sometimes airlines do not load their schedules for the entire 330 day standard sales window. Southwest and many LCCs load their schedules for as little as 5 months into the future. When these flight are extended into a new sales month, it becomes a "schedule change". Previously, I have manually deleted these in many cases and replaced them with a Year-Over-Year compare. Effective immediately, this will now change. When a flight is loaded from 0 departures X departures, where X was the same the prior year, the record will not be shown. For example, if Delta loaded ATL-EGE MAR 0>1(1), it would not be shown because this additional flight does not represent a real year-over-year addition. Similarly, if B6 extended their schedule a record like this ATL-BOS JUL 0>4(4) would not be shown. It will be shown if the flight frequency changed from the prior year. So B6 ATL-BOS JUL 0>3(4) would be shown. If a partial month was loaded in a core schedule that became a full schedule month, those changes may be shown under this logic. For example, WN BNA-SEA 0.3>2(2). Because only a fraction of the month was previously loaded for sale, these changes will not be filtered out. I may, however, manually remove them to declutter.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month. The following criteria are used to show a change: 1) The change must be at least 6 roundtrips per month with no exceptions, 2) changes of at least 6/week are always shown, 3) routes that are added or dropped are shown subject to the change minimum, and 4) in all other cases routes must change by 20% to be shown. For example, if a route changed from 21/week to 18/week it would not be shown because the change is -14.3%. This is done to filter minor changes that occur in large numbers.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. If the route has more than 2 daily flights, departures are rounded, but in cases of less than 2 departures per day a fraction is shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
Seats are not shown. That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard or overlapping schedule periods that see the same flight number in two places at once. These cause flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

4B AIA-DEN OCT 1.6>0[2.0] NOV 1.7>0[1.7] DEC 1.7>0[1.7] JAN 0.2>0[1.7]

4O MCO-MEX DEC 1.0>1.4[1.0]

4P BKL-LUK OCT 1.2>1.5[1.5] JAN 0>1.3[1.4] MAY 0>1.3[1.4] JUN 0>1.5[1.3]
4P MBL-MDW OCT 0.6>1.0[0.8] DEC 0.7>1.1[0.7]

9X MKK-OGG OCT 0.2>0.4[0]

AA CLT-MCO FEB 11>12[10] MAR 11>13[10]
AA CLT-MEX JAN 0.6>0.9[0.8] FEB 0.7>1.0[0.7] MAR 0.7>1.0[0.7]
AA DFW-LIR FEB 1.4>0.8[0.8] MAR 2>1.0[1.0] APR 2>1.1[0.7] MAY 2>1.0[0.2] JUN 2>1.0[0.2]
AA DFW-SJO JAN 2>1.2[1.0] FEB 2>1.0[1.1] MAY 2>1.2[1.0]
AA JFK-MAD JAN 0.9>0.2[1.0] FEB 0.9>0.0[1.0]
AA MIA-MXP JAN 0.9>0.5[0.9]
AA MIA-ORD DEC 9>10[9]
AA MIA-POP JAN 1.8>1.0[2] FEB 2>1.0[2] MAR 2>1.0[2]
AA MIA-PUJ FEB 3>2[3] MAR 3>2[3] APR 3>2[3] MAY 3>2[3]
I guess SXM isn't fully back yet
*AA MIA-SXM JAN 2>1.2[1.0] FEB 2>1.0[1.0] MAR 2>1.0[1.0] APR 2>1.0[1.0] MAY 2>1.0[1.0] JUN 2>1.0[1.0]
AA ONT-ORD DEC 1.0>0.5[0]
AA ORD-SJU APR 0.3>0.6[0.4] MAY 0.3>0.5[0.3]
AA PHL-SXM JAN 1.0>0.7[1.0]

AS ATL-SEA APR 1.0>2[2] MAY 1.3>2[2]
DL added last week, previously weekends
*AS BZN-SEA JAN 3>4[3] FEB 4>5[3] MAR 4>5[3] APR 4>5[3] MAY 4>5[3] JUN 4>5[3]
AS CHS-SEA APR 0.7>1.0[0.7] MAY 0.7>0.9[0.7]
AS GTF-SEA MAR 1.0>1.3[1.0] APR 1.0>1.7[1.6] MAY 1.3>1.7[1.7]
AS IAD-SEA MAR 1.2>1.6[1.0]
AS LAX-SJD JAN 1.9>2[1.7] FEB 1.7>2[1.7] MAR 1.7>3[1.7] APR 1.7>3[1.7] MAY 1.8>2[1.7] JUN 2>3[1.9]
AS MCI-PDX MAR 0.2>0.6[0] APR 0>1.0[0] MAY 0.7>1.0[0.5]
AS MFR-SEA JAN 3>4[3] FEB 3>4[3]
AS ONT-SEA JAN 2>3[2] FEB 1.9>3[2]
AS ORD-PDX MAR 1.0>1.4[1.0] APR 1.0>2[1.0] MAY 1.3>2.0[1.0]
AS PHX-SEA JAN 7>8[7] FEB 7>8[7]

AV BAQ-MIA NOV 1.0>0.7[1.0]

B6 BOS-BUF NOV 4>3[5]
B6 BOS-PUJ DEC 0.4>0.2[0.4]
B6 BQN-JFK JAN 0.9>0.7[0.6]
B6 FLL-PUJ DEC 1.0>0.4[1.0] JAN 1.0>0.4[1.0] FEB 1.0>0.8[1.0]
B6 FLL-SDQ JAN 1.3>1.0[2] FEB 1.0>0.8[1.5]
B6 FLL-STI JAN 1.0>0.5[1.0] FEB 0.8>0.6[1.0]
*B6 GEO-JFK APR 0>0.9[0]
B6 JFK-MSY JAN 1.6>1.1[2]
B6 JFK-PUJ DEC 2>1.0[2.0] JAN 1.6>1.0[1.5]
B6 JFK-STI DEC 6>7[5]
B6 MCO-SJO JAN 1.7>1.4[1.8]

CX HKG-JFK APR 3>4[3] MAY 3>4[3] JUN 3>4[3]

DL ALB-MSP MAR 0.8>0.6[0.8]
DL ATL-MHT MAR 1.0>0.7[1.0]
DL BOS-ORF MAR 0.8>0.6[0.8]
DL BUF-MSP MAR 0.8>0.6[0.8]
DL CMH-SLC MAR 0.8>0.6[0]
DL CVG-YYZ MAR 0.7>0.5[0.6]
DL DTW-LIT MAR 0.8>0.6[0.8]
DL DTW-SAV MAR 1.0>0.7[1.0]
DL JAX-MSP MAR 1.0>0.8[0.7]
DL JFK-MEX DEC 1.1>2[1.0]
*DL LAX-MEX DEC 1.1>4[0.9] JAN 1.0>1.5[1.0]
DL MSP-ORF MAR 0.8>0.6[0.8]
DL MSP-SYR MAR 0.8>0.6[0.8]

*F9 CUN-IND JAN 0>0.3[0] FEB 0>0.3[0]
*F9 GRB-MCO NOV 0>0.2[0] DEC 0>0.5[0] JAN 0>0.4[0] FEB 0>0.4[0]
*F9 MCI-MCO NOV 0>0.2[0] DEC 0>0.5[0] JAN 0>0.4[0] FEB 0>0.4[0]

Close in cancel
*FI KEF-PDX NOV 0.4>0[0.0] DEC 0.4>0[0]

G7 ORD-STL OCT 0>0.3[0]

HX HKG-LAX DEC 0.8>0.6[1.0]

IB MAD-MIA MAY 0>1.0[2] JUN 0>1.0[2]

J5 AGN-JNU OCT 1.0>0[1.0] NOV 1.0>0[1.0] DEC 1.0>0[1.0]
J5 AGN-TKE OCT 1.0>0[1.0] NOV 1.0>0[1.0] DEC 1.0>0[1.0]
J5 ELV-JNU OCT 0.3>0[0.3] NOV 0.3>0[0.3] DEC 0.3>0[0.3] JAN 0.3>0[0.3] FEB 0.3>0[0.3] MAR 0.3>0[0.3] APR 0.3>0[0.3] MAY 0.3>0[1.5] JUN 0.3>0[3]
J5 EXI-JNU OCT 0.4>0[0.2] NOV 0.4>0[0.1] DEC 0.3>0[0.1]
J5 HNH-JNU OCT 3>0[4] NOV 3>0[3] DEC 3>0[3]
J5 HNS-JNU OCT 3>0[3] NOV 3>0[3] DEC 3>0[3]
J5 HNS-SGY OCT 0.8>0[0.8] NOV 1.0>0[1.0] DEC 1.0>0[1.0]
J5 JNU-KAE OCT 1.0>0[1.0] NOV 1.0>0.0[1.0] DEC 1.0>0.5[1.0]
J5 JNU-PEC OCT 0.9>0[0.9] NOV 0.9>0[0.8] DEC 0.8>0[0.8]
J5 JNU-SGY OCT 3>0[3] NOV 3>0.1[3] DEC 3>1.0[3] JAN 1.0>0[2] FEB 1.0>0[3] MAR 1.0>0[3] APR 1.0>0[3] MAY 1.0>0[7] JUN 1.0>0[7]
J5 JNU-SIT OCT 2>0.5[3] NOV 1.9>0.5[3] DEC 1.9>1.0[1.9]
J5 JNU-TKE OCT 1.0>0[1.0] NOV 1.0>0[1.0] DEC 1.0>0[1.0]
J5 KAE-SIT OCT 1.0>0[1.0] NOV 1.0>0.0[1.0] DEC 1.0>0.5[1.0]
J5 KLW-SIT OCT 1.0>0.5[1.0] NOV 1.0>0.5[1.0] DEC 1.0>0.5[1.0]

SY DEN-MSP NOV 1.1>1.3[0]
SY HNL-PDX DEC 0.8>0.5[0.6]
*SY LAS-MSN JAN 0>0.3[0] FEB 0>0.3[0] MAR 0>0.3[0]
*SY MCO-MSN JAN 0>0.3[0] FEB 0>0.3[0] MAR 0>0.3[0]
SY MIA-MSP JAN 0.9>1.1[0.9]
SY MSP-MSY FEB 0.3>0.6[0.3] MAR 0.3>0.6[0.3]

UA ATL-ORD FEB 8>7[7]
UA BOS-EWR JAN 9>8[8]
UA BUF-IAD FEB 2>3[3]
UA BZN-IAH JAN 0.4>0.2[0.4]
UA CGI-ORD JAN 0.9>1.7[0.9] FEB 0.8>1.3[0.9]
UA CGI-PAH JAN 1.9>0.3[1.5] FEB 1.8>1.1[1.9]
UA CHA-ORD DEC 4>3[3] JAN 4>2.0[3] FEB 3>1.9[3]
UA CLT-EWR JAN 6>5[5]
UA DEN-PAE FEB 2>3[0]
UA EWR-MCO JAN 10>9[8]
UA EWR-OMA FEB 2>1.8[1.9]
UA EWR-XNA JAN 0.6>0.8[0.7]
UA EWR-YHZ FEB 3>2[2]
UA GPT-IAH NOV 4>3[3]
UA IAD-ITH FEB 1.8>2[1.9]
UA IAD-LEX FEB 1.4>2[1.1]
UA IAD-LWB JAN 0.7>0.1[0.7] FEB 0.7>0.4[0.7]
UA IAD-ROA FEB 2>3[2]
UA IAD-SCE FEB 2>3[3]
UA IAD-SHD JAN 0.9>1.8[1.0] FEB 0.9>1.3[1.0]
UA IAD-YYZ FEB 4>3[4]
UA IAH-JAC JAN 0.4>0.2[0.4]
UA IAH-MOT JAN 0>0.3[0.2]
UA IAH-ORF DEC 1.8>1.3[1.8]
UA LAX-RNO FEB 2>3[3]
UA LEX-ORD JAN 3>4[4]
UA MSY-SFO FEB 1.0>1.6[1.0]
UA ORD-PNS FEB 1.0>1.6[1.5]
UA ORD-PVD FEB 1.6>1.0[1.5]
UA ORD-YWG FEB 1.6>1.0[2]
UA OTH-SFO JAN 0.8>1.0[1.0]

UX JFK-MAD MAY 0.9>0.6[0.8]

Pretty sure WN has never changed a filed schedule for a month this many times
WN ALB-DEN DEC 0.2>0[0.4]
WN ALB-TPA DEC 1.0>0.7[1.1]
WN ATL-BOS DEC 0.6>0.4[2.0]
WN AUS-EWR DEC 1.1>0[1.6] JAN 0.3>0[1.0]
WN AUS-RDU DEC 0.5>0.2[0]
WN AUS-SFO DEC 0.4>0.2[0.9]
WN BHM-LAS DEC 0.5>0.2[1.0]
WN BNA-BUR DEC 0.5>0.2[0]
WN BNA-EWR DEC 1.3>0[0] JAN 0.4>0[1.5]
WN BOS-MCI DEC 0.5>0.2[1.0]
WN BUF-DEN DEC 0.8>0.5[0]
WN BUR-MDW DEC 1.1>0.8[0.9]
WN BUR-SLC DEC 0.5>0.3[1.0]
WN BWI-EWR DEC 0.9>0[0] JAN 0.3>0[0]
WN CLE-PHX DEC 0.6>0.3[1.1]
WN DEN-EWR DEC 0.9>0[1.9] JAN 0.3>0[1.8]
WN DTW-PHX DEC 0.5>0.2[1.0]
WN EWR-MDW DEC 2>0[5] JAN 0.8>0[5]
WN EWR-OAK DEC 0.4>0[0.1]
WN EWR-PHX DEC 0.5>0[1.0]
WN EWR-SAN DEC 0.4>0[0.6]
WN EWR-STL DEC 0.9>0[1.9] JAN 0.3>0[2]
WN GEG-SJC DEC 0.6>0.3[1.0]
WN HOU-PHL DEC 0.5>0.2[0.1]
WN HOU-SLC DEC 0.5>0.2[1.0]
WN HOU-SMF DEC 0.5>0.2[0.1]
WN LAX-OMA DEC 0.5>0.2[0.9]
WN LAX-PDX DEC 1.4>1.1[2]
WN LAX-PIT DEC 0.5>0.2[0.9]
WN LAX-TPA DEC 0.5>0.2[1.0]
WN LIT-PHX DEC 0.5>0.3[0.9]
WN MCI-MKE DEC 1.4>1.1[1.6]
WN MCI-RDU DEC 0.6>0.3[1.0]
WN MSP-OAK DEC 0.2>0[0.9]
WN OAK-SAT DEC 0.8>0.5[1.0]

WS BOS-YYZ MAY 3>2[3] JUN 3>2[3]

X4 AGN-JNU OCT 0>1.0[0] NOV 0>1.0[0] DEC 0>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>1.0[0] MAR 0>0.6[0]
X4 AGN-TKE OCT 0>1.0[0] NOV 0>1.0[0] DEC 0>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>1.0[0] MAR 0>0.6[0]
X4 ELV-JNU OCT 0>0.3[0] NOV 0>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.2[0] JAN 0>0.3[0] FEB 0>0.3[0] MAR 0>0.3[0]
X4 GST-JNU MAR 0>0.4[2]
X4 HNH-JNU OCT 0>4[0] NOV 0>3[0] DEC 0>3[0] JAN 0>3[0] FEB 0>3[0] MAR 0>2[0] APR 0>0.2[0]
X4 HNS-JNU OCT 0>3[0] NOV 0>3[0] DEC 0>3[0] JAN 0>3[0] FEB 0>3[0] MAR 0>2[0] APR 0>0.2[0]
X4 HNS-SGY OCT 0>0.8[0] NOV 0>1.0[0] DEC 0>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>1.0[0] MAR 0>0.2[0]
X4 JNU-KAE OCT 0>1.0[0] NOV 0>1.0[0] DEC 0>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>0.5[0] MAR 0>0.5[0]
X4 JNU-PEC OCT 0>0.9[0] NOV 0>0.8[0] DEC 0>0.8[0] JAN 0>0.8[0] FEB 0>0.9[0] MAR 0>0.8[0]
X4 JNU-SGY OCT 0>3[0] NOV 0>3[0] DEC 0>3[0] JAN 0>3[0] FEB 0>3[0] MAR 0>2[0] APR 0>0.2[0]
X4 JNU-SIT OCT 0>1.5[0] NOV 0>1.5[0] DEC 0>1.5[0] JAN 0>1.5[0] FEB 0>1.0[0] MAR 0>1.0[0]
X4 JNU-TKE OCT 0>1.0[0] NOV 0>1.0[0] DEC 0>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>1.0[0] MAR 0>0.6[0]
X4 KAE-SIT OCT 0>1.0[0] NOV 0>1.0[0] DEC 0>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>0.5[0] MAR 0>0.5[0]
X4 KLW-SIT OCT 0>0.5[0] NOV 0>0.5[0] DEC 0>0.5[0] JAN 0>0.5[0] FEB 0>0.5[0] MAR 0>0.5[0]

Re: OAG Changes 9/15/2019:F9 Adds MCI/GRB-MCO,CUN-IND;AA/AS/B6/DL/UA/WN

Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2019 12:38 pm
by Thenoflyzone
Is IB MAD-MIA seasonal? Always thought it was year round. If it is year round, I find it weird that last week, May and June weren’t for sale.....

Re: OAG Changes 9/15/2019:F9 Adds MCI/GRB-MCO,CUN-IND;AA/AS/B6/DL/UA/WN

Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2019 12:54 pm
by usairways85
enilria wrote:
AA JFK-MAD JAN 0.9>0.2[1.0] FEB 0.9>0.0[1.0]

Getting a short seasonal suspension?

Re: OAG Changes 9/15/2019:F9 Adds MCI/GRB-MCO,CUN-IND;AA/AS/B6/DL/UA/WN

Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2019 12:59 pm
by SRQKEF
enilria wrote:
*FI KEF-PDX NOV 0.4>0[0.0] DEC 0.4>0[0]


This was already announced a while ago, it’s summer seasonal this year only due to fleet shortages stemming from the MAX grounding. While the winter is low season, the 757s all undergo B- or C-checks during it which need to be accounted for. Should be back to year round by W20/21.

Re: OAG Changes 9/15/2019:F9 Adds MCI/GRB-MCO,CUN-IND;AA/AS/B6/DL/UA/WN

Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:06 pm
by aaflyer777
WS BOS-YYZ MAY 3>2[3] JUN 3>2[3]

WS seems to be struggling in BOS, YUL and YHZ cut and now YYZ is down to just 2x daily

Re: OAG Changes 9/15/2019:F9 Adds MCI/GRB-MCO,CUN-IND;AA/AS/B6/DL/UA/WN

Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:22 pm
by CAPTYXU
WestJet is not struggling with that route it has to do with gate availability the airplanes are full but Delta owns that gate and they want it for their own flights hence Southwest was given the boot as well.

Re: OAG Changes 9/15/2019:F9 Adds MCI/GRB-MCO,CUN-IND;AA/AS/B6/DL/UA/WN

Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2019 3:19 pm
by Cubsrule
CAPTYXU wrote:
WestJet is not struggling with that route it has to do with gate availability the airplanes are full but Delta owns that gate and they want it for their own flights hence Southwest was given the boot as well.


There may be some operational difficulties on the YYZ end too. The transborder Encore flights use that ground boarding gate in the corner (A6?) and things like dealing with blue tagged bags seem like a constant struggle.

Re: OAG Changes 9/15/2019:F9 Adds MCI/GRB-MCO,CUN-IND;AA/AS/B6/DL/UA/WN

Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2019 3:24 pm
by Dominion301
Thanks as always enilria. I can only guess that WN’s changes (save for EWR) are all MAX-related given they’re only for 1 month?

If I were an airline with MAX ops, I’d assume at this point that it will be the entire IATA winter season before they’re back.

Re: OAG Changes 9/15/2019:F9 Adds MCI/GRB-MCO,CUN-IND;AA/AS/B6/DL/UA/WN

Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2019 3:44 pm
by Ishrion
enilria wrote:
HX HKG-LAX DEC 0.8>0.6[1.0]


Protests reduction?

Re: OAG Changes 9/15/2019:F9 Adds MCI/GRB-MCO,CUN-IND;AA/AS/B6/DL/UA/WN

Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2019 4:12 pm
by CAPTYXU
Cubsrule wrote:
CAPTYXU wrote:
WestJet is not struggling with that route it has to do with gate availability the airplanes are full but Delta owns that gate and they want it for their own flights hence Southwest was given the boot as well.


There may be some operational difficulties on the YYZ end too. The transborder Encore flights use that ground boarding gate in the corner (A6?) and things like dealing with blue tagged bags seem like a constant struggle.


Yes I have to agree and until they remove the Air Canada hangar and extend the terminal that will continue to be problematic

Re: OAG Changes 9/15/2019:F9 Adds MCI/GRB-MCO,CUN-IND;AA/AS/B6/DL/UA/WN

Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2019 4:35 pm
by MIflyer12
enilria wrote:
*F9 CUN-IND JAN 0>0.3[0] FEB 0>0.3[0]


It will be interesting to see what kind of premium DL will want even for its Basic Economy fare vs. F9's lowest fare. Would we be surprised if DL bumped capacity?

Re: OAG Changes 9/15/2019:F9 Adds MCI/GRB-MCO,CUN-IND;AA/AS/B6/DL/UA/WN

Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2019 4:36 pm
by tlecam
AA JFK-MAD JAN 0.9>0.2[1.0] FEB 0.9>0.0[1.0]

More evidence of deep winter cuts at AA although I’m surprised given that it’s a OW hub route.

Re: OAG Changes 9/15/2019:F9 Adds MCI/GRB-MCO,CUN-IND;AA/AS/B6/DL/UA/WN

Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2019 4:43 pm
by cledaybuck
enilria wrote:
Pretty sure WN has never changed a filed schedule for a month this many times

WN has been rolling out MAX cuts on a weekly basis. First was early November, then around Thanksgiving, last week was early December, and this week was around Christmas until January 5.

Re: OAG Changes 9/15/2019:F9 Adds MCI/GRB-MCO,CUN-IND;AA/AS/B6/DL/UA/WN

Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:15 pm
by MAH4546
Thenoflyzone wrote:
Is IB MAD-MIA seasonal? Always thought it was year round. If it is year round, I find it weird that last week, May and June weren’t for sale.....


Twice a day, year round, and that’s what’s available for sale through end of schedule, so not sure why OAG is showing that way.

Re: OAG Changes 9/15/2019:F9 Adds MCI/GRB-MCO,CUN-IND;AA/AS/B6/DL/UA/WN

Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:26 pm
by danipawa
still reducing to PUJ...

Re: OAG Changes 9/15/2019:F9 Adds MCI/GRB-MCO,CUN-IND;AA/AS/B6/DL/UA/WN

Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:28 pm
by jetmatt777
Dominion301 wrote:
Thanks as always enilria. I can only guess that WN’s changes (save for EWR) are all MAX-related given they’re only for 1 month?

If I were an airline with MAX ops, I’d assume at this point that it will be the entire IATA winter season before they’re back.


I’m betting that the airlines keep loading the MAX in the schedule because it will be easier for their attorneys to draft compensation by showing how much they intended and were scheduled to operate the airplane based on Boeing’s guidance. I’m sure the airlines would rather not even schedule it and insert it into the schedule later - but makes it more difficult to estimate losses revenue.

Re: OAG Changes 9/15/2019:F9 Adds MCI/GRB-MCO,CUN-IND;AA/AS/B6/DL/UA/WN

Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2019 6:07 pm
by HVNandrew
aaflyer777 wrote:
WS BOS-YYZ MAY 3>2[3] JUN 3>2[3]

WS seems to be struggling in BOS, YUL and YHZ cut and now YYZ is down to just 2x daily

Given the WS partnership/DL's buildup at BOS I'm very surprised DL still has not jumped on BOS-YUL. They flew it for years and AC currently is the only carrier on the route.

Re: OAG Changes 9/15/2019:F9 Adds MCI/GRB-MCO,CUN-IND;AA/AS/B6/DL/UA/WN

Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2019 6:35 pm
by tphuang
HVNandrew wrote:
aaflyer777 wrote:
WS BOS-YYZ MAY 3>2[3] JUN 3>2[3]

WS seems to be struggling in BOS, YUL and YHZ cut and now YYZ is down to just 2x daily

Given the WS partnership/DL's buildup at BOS I'm very surprised DL still has not jumped on BOS-YUL. They flew it for years and AC currently is the only carrier on the route.


Why? They'd killed on that. And if WS keeps cutting YYZ back, it will just be AC and PD to Toronto.

Re: OAG Changes 9/15/2019:F9 Adds MCI/GRB-MCO,CUN-IND;AA/AS/B6/DL/UA/WN

Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:04 pm
by admanager
AS CHS-SEA APR 0.7>1.0[0.7] MAY 0.7>0.9[0.7]

Alaska launched this route 4 years ago with 4 flights a week. Today its 5 days a week and soon increasing to daily. As a regular user I'm glad to see the increase. Anecdotally, I would say it's very heavy with west coast point of sale (and of course Boeing employees).

Re: OAG Changes 9/15/2019:F9 Adds MCI/GRB-MCO,CUN-IND;AA/AS/B6/DL/UA/WN

Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2019 10:03 pm
by PVD757
CAPTYXU wrote:
WestJet is not struggling with that route it has to do with gate availability the airplanes are full but Delta owns that gate and they want it for their own flights hence Southwest was given the boot as well.


Not sure what full equates to but let’s just say the yield must be good to keep the route outside of IATA summer.

Re: OAG Changes 9/15/2019:F9 Adds MCI/GRB-MCO,CUN-IND;AA/AS/B6/DL/UA/WN

Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2019 10:48 pm
by NWADTWE16
SXM the island and airport have not recovered anywhere near fully. The terminal is still mostly not in use, and there are no good resorts on Saint Maarten with the Sonesta sucking and the Westin ripped to shreds and still not rebuilt.

Anguilla and St.Barths are all that keep the airport going from what I can tell. Was just in Anquilla, and no desire to even be on the big island.

Re: OAG Changes 9/15/2019:F9 Adds MCI/GRB-MCO,CUN-IND;AA/AS/B6/DL/UA/WN

Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2019 11:34 pm
by atrude777
enilria wrote:
UA CGI-ORD JAN 0.9>1.7[0.9] FEB 0.8>1.3[0.9]
UA CGI-PAH JAN 1.9>0.3[1.5] FEB 1.8>1.1[1.9]


Effective Jan 6th if not earlier...CGI-PAH will be ending.

United/SkyWest will end the through flights.

CGI-ORD will finally go to 2 daily non stop, while PAH stays at 2 daily non stop, but loses the third flight, which was a stop over via CGI.

CGI-ORD times are 7:20am and 6:10pm Departures.
PAH-ORD will be 6:20am, and 1:30pm Departures.

Alex

Re: OAG Changes 9/15/2019:F9 Adds MCI/GRB-MCO,CUN-IND;AA/AS/B6/DL/UA/WN

Posted: Mon Sep 16, 2019 12:22 am
by Lapplander800
SRQKEF wrote:
enilria wrote:
*FI KEF-PDX NOV 0.4>0[0.0] DEC 0.4>0[0]


This was already announced a while ago, it’s summer seasonal this year only due to fleet shortages stemming from the MAX grounding. While the winter is low season, the 757s all undergo B- or C-checks during it which need to be accounted for. Should be back to year round by W20/21.


Well..

PDX has always been seasonal for FI so "back to year round" is inaccurate for an airline which has never flown the route in question in, say, February of any year since its inauguration in 2015.

This year FI started the route in late March and cleared the month with 5 round trips and 1345 butts in seats. This is around the time the MAX was being grounded so it cannot really be blamed for 2019 seasonality of this route. The first flight in 2020 is currently on sale starting at the end of March.

I believe 2017 is the only year FI flew PDX in December so this trim isn't anything that crazy. If anything it seems quite prudent given the uncertainty for a tiny airline that expected to start the 2020 summer season with (14) 737MAX in their fleet. I am putting the task of their 2020 network planning high on my list of jobs I do not want to have.

Re: OAG Changes 9/15/2019:F9 Adds MCI/GRB-MCO,CUN-IND;AA/AS/B6/DL/UA/WN

Posted: Mon Sep 16, 2019 2:22 am
by wedgetail737
admanager wrote:
AS CHS-SEA APR 0.7>1.0[0.7] MAY 0.7>0.9[0.7]

Alaska launched this route 4 years ago with 4 flights a week. Today its 5 days a week and soon increasing to daily. As a regular user I'm glad to see the increase. Anecdotally, I would say it's very heavy with west coast point of sale (and of course Boeing employees).


CHS has quite a bit to offer, besides Boeing (of course), with golf galore and Myrtle Beach not too terribly far away. If you're a history buff, Charleston (and Charlestowne?) has a ton!

Re: OAG Changes 9/15/2019:F9 Adds MCI/GRB-MCO,CUN-IND;AA/AS/B6/DL/UA/WN

Posted: Mon Sep 16, 2019 3:38 am
by enilria
Dominion301 wrote:
Thanks as always enilria. I can only guess that WN’s changes (save for EWR) are all MAX-related given they’re only for 1 month?

If I were an airline with MAX ops, I’d assume at this point that it will be the entire IATA winter season before they’re back.

I posited last week that WN has three waves of schedule changes. Wave 1 is the normal load schedule. Wave 2 is the reduction of the planes grounded in MArch. Wave 3 is the reduction of planes which have been lost to retirement that were due to be replaced my subsequent MAX deliveries.