RainerBoeing777
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SAS growth in the future

Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:45 pm

SAS enters a new era with the delivery of new aircraft generation with the arrival of the Airbus A350-900XWB and Airbus A321LR neo in its Long Haul fleet and Airbus A320neo in Short Haul improving the efficiency of its fleet. SAS could expand extensively as Finnair did with the arrival of the A350, possibly they can have the options of this model and add more A321LR or A321XLR and further expand their bases in OSL and ARN

Possible new routes could be Bangkok, Seattle, Seoul, India (Delhi / Mumbai), Canada (Montreal / Toronto) and Houston more frequencies to Los Angeles, San Francisco, Miami and New York

With the Haneda slot grant, CPH-NRT is obviously canceled and passed to CPH-HND, such SAS launches ARN-NRT although this route can be taken by All Nippon Airways (NH) since a slot was granted to them could also start ARN-HND, another candidate could be CPH-KIX

It would also be strategic for SAS some JV with Thai Airways and Singapore Airlines to battle with the ME2, there is much market without service from Southeast Asia and Australia to Scandinavia, more than the tourism of Tailando to Scandinavia is huge

http://www.therouteshop.com/profiles/stockholm-arlanda/
http://www.therouteshop.com/profiles/oslo-airport/
http://www.therouteshop.com/profiles/copenhagen-airport/

What are your expectations for the future of SAS?
CX - JL - LH - KE - KL - SQ - QR - QF - TG
 
YYZORD
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Re: SAS growth in the future

Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:56 pm

I can see ARN-YYZ & CPH-YUL for sure. Scandinavian european routes are very underserved from Canadian hubs with only a single YYZ-CPH AC route that is the only connection to Scandinavia from Canada unless transiting through the US. This was a long time coming as AC is a star alliance member and codeshares with SK so the SK ARN-YYZ and CPH-YUL routes can codeshare on AC's network in Domestic Canada and Transborder US thanks to US Preclearance.
 
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SASViking
Posts: 253
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Re: SAS growth in the future

Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:06 pm

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
SAS enters a new era with the delivery of new aircraft generation with the arrival of the Airbus A350-900XWB and Airbus A321LR neo in its Long Haul fleet and Airbus A320neo in Short Haul improving the efficiency of its fleet. SAS could expand extensively as Finnair did with the arrival of the A350, possibly they can have the options of this model and add more A321LR or A321XLR and further expand their bases in OSL and ARN

Possible new routes could be Bangkok, Seattle, Seoul, India (Delhi / Mumbai), Canada (Montreal / Toronto) and Houston more frequencies to Los Angeles, San Francisco, Miami and New York

With the Haneda slot grant, CPH-NRT is obviously canceled and passed to CPH-HND, such SAS launches ARN-NRT although this route can be taken by All Nippon Airways (NH) since a slot was granted to them could also start ARN-HND, another candidate could be CPH-KIX

It would also be strategic for SAS some JV with Thai Airways and Singapore Airlines to battle with the ME2, there is much market without service from Southeast Asia and Australia to Scandinavia, more than the tourism of Tailando to Scandinavia is huge

http://www.therouteshop.com/profiles/stockholm-arlanda/
http://www.therouteshop.com/profiles/oslo-airport/
http://www.therouteshop.com/profiles/copenhagen-airport/

What are your expectations for the future of SAS?

SAS won't expand that much. The A350's are primarily a replacement for their A340s. They've ordered 8 A350s to replace 8 A340s.
Regarding the A321LR's SAS have mentioned that if the 3 they currently have on order are successful, then there is a possibility of them ordering some more.
LAX will already have more capacity as it will become daily from CPH from March 2020.
What I think will/could happen is:
CPH-NRT will move to HND. Either SAS will operate it entirely or it'll be a JV with ANA. Similar to what they currently have on CPH-SIN with SQ.
ARN-NRT is a possibility. Although I don't think that it has top priority after the failures of HKG and LAX from ARN.
CPH-BOS will go to a year-round A321LR.
OSL-ORD on the A321LR, perhaps only as a summer seasonal.
CPH-EWR (SK901/902) will also operate during the winter season with an A321LR.
CPH-SEA on the A330 freed from CPH-BOS going to the A321LR
Types flown: A319, A320, A32N, A321, A332, A333, A343, AT43, AT75, AT76, B717, B732, B735, B736, B737, B738, B752, B753, CRJ9, DC10, DH4D, DHC3, E135, E145, E175, E190, E195, F100, MD11, MD81, MD82, MD87, RJ1H
 
Lufthansa
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Re: SAS growth in the future

Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:34 pm

The split hub thing is the problem. ARN is the logical point for going east, CPH for going south and the Americas. This makes short
haul connections difficult. However not impossible. Finnair benefits from a large one world frequent flyer base that
probably takes BA/Iberia to the Americas, plus cashes in on the Scandiavian business market in Asia. This might surprise a
few because they don't touch down there but Finnair even sell a lot of tickets ex Australia.

SAS has a harder time doing this. They have the Lufthansa group on their doorstep. Want to go from GIG to ARN, LH is a logical
choice. They also have Turkish to contend with. Now CPH can be a good hub for the entire baltic area. ARN can be a good hub
for asia. But for this to work, they're gonna need smaller aircraft to feed both CPH and ARN to more destinations. This comes with
considerable risk as the likes of KLM and LH will respond in some way. Id say its more likely to be slow but steady growth,
with the new aircraft improving efficiency and product, and the A321LR opening up routes from Norway etc. If successful we may
see a few US cities added like BOS. The spilt hub thing really is the bottle neck.
 
PSAatSAN4Ever
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Re: SAS growth in the future

Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:32 am

Lufthansa wrote:
The split hub thing is the problem. ARN is the logical point for going east, CPH for going south and the Americas. This makes short
haul connections difficult. However not impossible. Finnair benefits from a large one world frequent flyer base that
probably takes BA/Iberia to the Americas, plus cashes in on the Scandiavian business market in Asia. This might surprise a
few because they don't touch down there but Finnair even sell a lot of tickets ex Australia.

SAS has a harder time doing this. They have the Lufthansa group on their doorstep. Want to go from GIG to ARN, LH is a logical
choice. They also have Turkish to contend with. Now CPH can be a good hub for the entire baltic area. ARN can be a good hub
for asia. But for this to work, they're gonna need smaller aircraft to feed both CPH and ARN to more destinations. This comes with
considerable risk as the likes of KLM and LH will respond in some way. Id say its more likely to be slow but steady growth,
with the new aircraft improving efficiency and product, and the A321LR opening up routes from Norway etc. If successful we may
see a few US cities added like BOS. The spilt hub thing really is the bottle neck.


Agreed. The small populations and the relative sparseness of the north means both "hubs" are not geographically conducive to great traffic flows through CPH or ARN. The proximity of fellow Star Alliance megahubs FRA and MUC relatively nearby pull a lot of traffic that SAS can't offer any advantages. For example, OSL-CPT on SAS, even if they flew it via CPH or ARN offers nothing that couldn't be flown OSL-FRA-CPT.

To that end, SAS will need to focus on O&D from Scandinavia, and match the right planes with the right routes. Find where the premium traffic is heading, and capture that for yourself. Leave everything else to others.
 
Croden
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Re: SAS growth in the future

Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:36 am

Any possible chance of the reintroduction of the Houston route?
 
klm617
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Re: SAS growth in the future

Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:45 am

With the A321LR NEO DTW-CPH is not out of the question. Would be a great option for all those who travel from southeast Michigan to Eastern Europe and Russia.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
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SASViking
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Re: SAS growth in the future

Tue Sep 17, 2019 2:12 am

Croden wrote:
Any possible chance of the reintroduction of the Houston route?

CPH-IAH (replacing SVG-IAH) is without a doubt a possibility due to it being two *A hubs, but I doubt it's gonna be SAS. The routes suites a UA 767/787 better, but that's doubtful as SK isn't a part of the Trans-Atlantic JV.
IAH also have the downside of being a relatively small O&D market from Scandinavia compared to destinations like SEA which has a large amount of Scandinavian immigrants living close to the airport
Types flown: A319, A320, A32N, A321, A332, A333, A343, AT43, AT75, AT76, B717, B732, B735, B736, B737, B738, B752, B753, CRJ9, DC10, DH4D, DHC3, E135, E145, E175, E190, E195, F100, MD11, MD81, MD82, MD87, RJ1H
 
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SASViking
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Re: SAS growth in the future

Tue Sep 17, 2019 2:20 am

klm617 wrote:
With the A321LR NEO DTW-CPH is not out of the question. Would be a great option for all those who travel from southeast Michigan to Eastern Europe and Russia.

I'm sorry but that'll never happen. It's either gonna be destinations in the US with high O&D or destinations which offers many connections through their interline (and codeshare for UA) agreements with UA, AA or AS through their specific hubs.
SAS doesn't even serve Russia from CPH and other than that SAS' routes from CPH to Eastern Europe are primarily Poland (WAW, SZZ, GDN, WRO), Estonia (TLL) and Lithuania (VNO). Other routes are very infrequent and therefore not any good for connections
Types flown: A319, A320, A32N, A321, A332, A333, A343, AT43, AT75, AT76, B717, B732, B735, B736, B737, B738, B752, B753, CRJ9, DC10, DH4D, DHC3, E135, E145, E175, E190, E195, F100, MD11, MD81, MD82, MD87, RJ1H
 
Oykie
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Re: SAS growth in the future

Tue Sep 17, 2019 5:05 am

Focusing on slow growth to the U.S. is a good option. There will be the possibility to clear immigration to the U.S. in Scandinavia soon and that will give SAS an advantage. SAS also could work on it’s feeder destinations, but the short haul marked is crowded and yields are terrible.
Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
 
Lufthansa
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Re: SAS growth in the future

Tue Sep 17, 2019 5:36 am

SASViking wrote:
klm617 wrote:
With the A321LR NEO DTW-CPH is not out of the question. Would be a great option for all those who travel from southeast Michigan to Eastern Europe and Russia.

I'm sorry but that'll never happen. It's either gonna be destinations in the US with high O&D or destinations which offers many connections through their interline (and codeshare for UA) agreements with UA, AA or AS through their specific hubs.
SAS doesn't even serve Russia from CPH and other than that SAS' routes from CPH to Eastern Europe are primarily Poland (WAW, SZZ, GDN, WRO), Estonia (TLL) and Lithuania (VNO). Other routes are very infrequent and therefore not any good for connections



There is a possibility but not on SAS. This route would make sense for Delta with the US feed, As there's a lot of ppl with various Northern European and baltic
stock as well as companies in places like Minneapolis and DTW. However it probably could be more effectively done by UA from ORD but SAS already
flies that route. And it would need something like the A321 XLR. I wouldn't hold my breath. Somewhere like DEN has a better chance given its connectivity and
star alliance membership. LH's control of Northern and Central Europe outside holland is your biggest problem. If Norwegian fails, they might have chance at
setting up their own LCC to feed more destinations at both ARN and CPH but without that I wouldn't hold your breath.
 
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Miami
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Re: SAS growth in the future

Tue Sep 17, 2019 5:41 am

Making MIA year-round again would be ideal.
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YIMBY
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Re: SAS growth in the future

Tue Sep 17, 2019 6:06 am

SAS has very little space to grow. The split hub and non-optimal location squeezes them between Finnair, KLM and Lufthansa (also BA and AF), and hard competition from Low-cost and hybrid airlines makes it ever harder. Flygskam and improved railway network does not make it easier.

Their chances are:
- 321LR (XLR in the future) allowing to open more routes in Americas. (Maybe India too)
- Bankruptcy of Norwegian (hope not)
- Expansion to other regions (e.g. by acquisition) - very risky

Otherwise it is better to concentrate to fly profitably than to expand.
 
Blerg
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Re: SAS growth in the future

Tue Sep 17, 2019 6:08 am

I think dropping any long-haul out of ARN is a move in the right direction, they need to focus on CPH which has a much better geographical location. Furthermore, I doubt SK is willing to invest that much into ARN-Asia because they would have to directly compete with airlines such as Finnair, LOT, Aeroflot or Turkish Airlines... all of which are well established in this market.

In my opinion, SK should work on expanding and consolidating its European network as well as there are some holes that need to be filled. For example their network across eastern Europe is limited. With more flights to the old Communist East they could easily double their passengers on CPH-ORD.
 
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QuawerAir
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Re: SAS growth in the future

Tue Sep 17, 2019 6:12 am

SASViking wrote:
SAS won't expand that much. The A350's are primarily a replacement for their A340s. They've ordered 8 A350s to replace 8 A340s.
Regarding the A321LR's SAS have mentioned that if the 3 they currently have on order are successful, then there is a possibility of them ordering some more.
LAX will already have more capacity as it will become daily from CPH from March 2020.
What I think will/could happen is:
CPH-NRT will move to HND. Either SAS will operate it entirely or it'll be a JV with ANA. Similar to what they currently have on CPH-SIN with SQ.
ARN-NRT is a possibility. Although I don't think that it has top priority after the failures of HKG and LAX from ARN.
CPH-BOS will go to a year-round A321LR.
OSL-ORD on the A321LR, perhaps only as a summer seasonal.
CPH-EWR (SK901/902) will also operate during the winter season with an A321LR.
CPH-SEA on the A330 freed from CPH-BOS going to the A321LR

I agree with SASViking. I would also add CPH–ICN to the list.

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
SAS enters a new era with the delivery of new aircraft generation with the arrival of the Airbus A350-900XWB and Airbus A321LR neo in its Long Haul fleet and Airbus A320neo in Short Haul improving the efficiency of its fleet. SAS could expand extensively as Finnair did with the arrival of the A350, possibly they can have the options of this model and add more A321LR or A321XLR and further expand their bases in OSL and ARN

Possible new routes could be Bangkok, Seattle, Seoul, India (Delhi / Mumbai), Canada (Montreal / Toronto) and Houston more frequencies to Los Angeles, San Francisco, Miami and New York

With the Haneda slot grant, CPH-NRT is obviously canceled and passed to CPH-HND, such SAS launches ARN-NRT although this route can be taken by All Nippon Airways (NH) since a slot was granted to them could also start ARN-HND, another candidate could be CPH-KIX

It would also be strategic for SAS some JV with Thai Airways and Singapore Airlines to battle with the ME2, there is much market without service from Southeast Asia and Australia to Scandinavia, more than the tourism of Tailando to Scandinavia is huge

I'm not sure about BKK as Thai Airways and Norwegian already operate on this route. The same goes for DEL as Air India already flies to CPH and ARN. CPH–KIX? Maybe. SAS flew this route in the '90s so presumably, there's some demand.
ATL, AYT, FRA, FUE, HEL, JFK, LCA, LHR, MUC | AY, BA, DL, FH, LH, LO | A320, A321, A333, 752, 764, 772, 788
The word "Quawer" means nothing but it looks great.
 
boed
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Re: SAS growth in the future

Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:37 am

How about CPH-ADD on the A321LR? Would give options to all of Africa with ET, and shouldn't compete too much with ET's routes to ARN and OSL.

Either way, SAS has hinted at adding something like AAR-EWR with the A321LR, or perhaps GOT-EWR or BGO-EWR.
 
workhorse
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Re: SAS growth in the future

Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:37 am

QuawerAir wrote:
I agree with SASViking. I would also add CPH–ICN to the list.


QuawerAir wrote:
I'm not sure about BKK as Thai Airways and Norwegian already operate on this route. The same goes for DEL as Air India already flies to CPH and ARN. CPH–KIX? Maybe. SAS flew this route in the '90s so presumably, there's some demand.


Unfortunately, any SAS expansion into Asia is limited by the necessity to obtain additional Russian overflight rights which they are unlikely to get in the near future given the spat between Russia, Denmark and Sweden over the Baltic pipeline.
 
MareBorealis
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Re: SAS growth in the future

Tue Sep 17, 2019 3:14 pm

Lufthansa wrote:
Finnair benefits from a large one world frequent flyer base that
probably takes BA/Iberia to the Americas, plus cashes in on the Scandiavian business market in Asia. This might surprise a
few because they don't touch down there but Finnair even sell a lot of tickets ex Australia.


Yeah Finnair's CEO once said in a interview the Australian market surprised even themselves, the Reindeer Route via SIN/HKG/BKK with OW partners has been a success.
Oddly enough, according to the great circle mapper HEL is the closest EU hub to SYD. Earth is round indeed. It sounds the OW joint ventures, like the Atlantic and Siberian (to Japan), support them nicely.

I miss the days SAS were more active in HEL, with their Blue1 (SASFinland), they could offer an attractive choice on the Euro routes.
 
trent768
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Re: SAS growth in the future

Tue Sep 17, 2019 3:39 pm

Since SK decided to "abandon" ARN and focusing on CPH (which is ironic since their HQ is in Stockholm), do you think that there is a room for a new fully Swedish airlines that serves both short and long haul destinations? I mean, Stockholm is one of Europe's major financial and tourist center. It would be very odd for a city in this scale to have no long haul flight (other than some pond crossing) at all!
 
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American 767
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Re: SAS growth in the future

Tue Sep 17, 2019 4:07 pm

SAS and Thai always had strong partner relationships with each other, they were among the initial founding members of the Star Alliance back in 1997 when it was founded, and even before that they had already some sort of partnership agreement. So I wouldn't be surprised if, given SAS's restriction about overflying Russia as workhorse mentions above, they (SAS) give up on expanding to Asia out of ARN and let Thai and Singapore do it. I think that would make sense.

What I see as one possible new route is ARN-YVR.
Ben Soriano
 
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SASViking
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Re: SAS growth in the future

Tue Sep 17, 2019 4:41 pm

American 767 wrote:
SAS and Thai always had strong partner relationships with each other, they were among the initial founding members of the Star Alliance back in 1997 when it was founded, and even before that they had already some sort of partnership agreement. So I wouldn't be surprised if, given SAS's restriction about overflying Russia as workhorse mentions above, they (SAS) give up on expanding to Asia out of ARN and let Thai and Singapore do it. I think that would make sense.

What I see as one possible new route is ARN-YVR.

SAS was actually the founder of Thai in a JV with the Thai Government.
However there's pretty much zero chance of any new LH route out of ARN unless it's on the A321LR, so ARN-YYZ has a chance, not ARN-YVR. The only exception is ARN-NRT if/when CPH-NRT moves to HND.
Only EWR and ORD seem to work from ARN (and one weekly MIA in the winter) for SAS. Everything else has been a failure.
TG is also closing their seasonal ARN-HKT-BKK.
The Swedish economy is weak, the unemployment rate is increasing. On top of that they have an aviation tax and Flygskam (shame of flying).
Types flown: A319, A320, A32N, A321, A332, A333, A343, AT43, AT75, AT76, B717, B732, B735, B736, B737, B738, B752, B753, CRJ9, DC10, DH4D, DHC3, E135, E145, E175, E190, E195, F100, MD11, MD81, MD82, MD87, RJ1H
 
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spinotter
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Re: SAS growth in the future

Tue Sep 17, 2019 5:01 pm

klm617 wrote:
With the A321LR NEO DTW-CPH is not out of the question. Would be a great option for all those who travel from southeast Michigan to Eastern Europe and Russia.


There has to be SOME O&D and there is practically none on Detroit to Scandinavia.
 
MAH4546
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Re: SAS growth in the future

Tue Sep 17, 2019 5:52 pm

SASViking wrote:
Only EWR and ORD seem to work from ARN (and one weekly MIA in the winter) for SAS. Everything else has been a failure.
f


Small correction but ARN is 2w. MIA schedule is one daily flight - 3w CPH/2w OSL/2w ARN.
a.
 
Someone83
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Re: SAS growth in the future

Tue Sep 17, 2019 5:52 pm

workhorse wrote:

Unfortunately, any SAS expansion into Asia is limited by the necessity to obtain additional Russian overflight rights which they are unlikely to get in the near future given the spat between Russia, Denmark and Sweden over the Baltic pipeline.


As far as I know, SAS isn’t using all their overflying rights today
 
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SASViking
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Re: SAS growth in the future

Tue Sep 17, 2019 6:10 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
SASViking wrote:
Only EWR and ORD seem to work from ARN (and one weekly MIA in the winter) for SAS. Everything else has been a failure.
f


Small correction but ARN is 2w. MIA schedule is one daily flight - 3w CPH/2w OSL/2w ARN.

You're right. I forgot that they moved a frequency from OSL to ARN :D :white:
Types flown: A319, A320, A32N, A321, A332, A333, A343, AT43, AT75, AT76, B717, B732, B735, B736, B737, B738, B752, B753, CRJ9, DC10, DH4D, DHC3, E135, E145, E175, E190, E195, F100, MD11, MD81, MD82, MD87, RJ1H
 
kanye
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Re: SAS growth in the future

Tue Sep 17, 2019 6:13 pm

trent768 wrote:
Since SK decided to "abandon" ARN and focusing on CPH (which is ironic since their HQ is in Stockholm), do you think that there is a room for a new fully Swedish airlines that serves both short and long haul destinations? I mean, Stockholm is one of Europe's major financial and tourist center. It would be very odd for a city in this scale to have no long haul flight (other than some pond crossing) at all!



Yes it would, however it has to Shanghai, Beijing, New Delhi, Singapore, Doha, Dubai, Addis Ababa, Tehran and all of Norwegians and SAS flights.
 
2travel2know2
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Re: SAS growth in the future

Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:44 pm

Outside of Europe, the most likely candidates for new or return SK destinations are the Star Alliance airport hubs not currently having CPH flights.
If it's ARN - Asia better be where SK could get feed from both hubs, same for any new ARN-Americas routes.
A seasonal CPH-DEN could even be interesting, the only exceptions of service to non-Star Alliance hubs could be something like CPH-LAS/MCO seasonal, if SK wants to use its widebody fleet on that kind of market when demand is low on its prime routes.
However, in the same line of thought of flying to Star Alliance hubs, potential out-of the-box routes like CPH-JNB (to connect with SA) and/or CPH-PTY (to connect with CM), IMHO, are really far-fetched for an airline like SK.
I'm not on CM's payroll.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: SAS growth in the future

Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:01 pm

SASViking wrote:
Croden wrote:
Any possible chance of the reintroduction of the Houston route?

CPH-IAH (replacing SVG-IAH) is without a doubt a possibility due to it being two *A hubs, but I doubt it's gonna be SAS. The routes suites a UA 767/787 better, but that's doubtful as SK isn't a part of the Trans-Atlantic JV.
IAH also have the downside of being a relatively small O&D market from Scandinavia compared to destinations like SEA which has a large amount of Scandinavian immigrants living close to the airport


IAH-Norway is bigger than SEA-Norway and the fares are higher. SEA is bigger to Sweden and Denmark.

Seattle has a large amount of Scandinavian immigrants? I mean, its one of the biggest in the country, but I wouldnt call it large in the slightest. Its certainly not going to fill any plane. If SK returns to SEA, it would be from business ties and maybe tourism:

Immigrants from Denmark by metro area as of 2017
New York: 2729
Los Angeles: 2016
San Francisco: 1624
Washington DC: 954
Seattle: 950
Miami: 906
Atlanta: 893
Chicago: 759
Boston: 727
San Diego: 681
San Jose: 584
Tampa: 519
Phoenix: 487
Houston: 467
Dallas: 414

Immigrants from Norway as of 2017
New York: 2390
Houston: 1668
Seattle: 1250
Los Angeles: 1166
San Francisco: 1027
Chicago: 736
Miami: 582
Minneapolis: 574
Portland: 524
Phoenix: 516
San Diego: 513
Washington: 457
Philadelphia: 370
Orlando: 352
Tampa: 341

Immigrants from Sweden as of 2017
New York: 4917
Los Angeles: 4588
San Francisco: 2333
Miami: 1676
Seattle: 1622
San Diego: 1616
Boston: 1584
Washington DC: 1243
San Jose: 1057
Houston: 998
Philadelphia: 963
Chicago: 907
Dallas: 874
Atlanta: 872
Orlando: 749
"I dance and laugh among the rotten"
 
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SASViking
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Re: SAS growth in the future

Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:33 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
SASViking wrote:
Croden wrote:
Any possible chance of the reintroduction of the Houston route?

CPH-IAH (replacing SVG-IAH) is without a doubt a possibility due to it being two *A hubs, but I doubt it's gonna be SAS. The routes suites a UA 767/787 better, but that's doubtful as SK isn't a part of the Trans-Atlantic JV.
IAH also have the downside of being a relatively small O&D market from Scandinavia compared to destinations like SEA which has a large amount of Scandinavian immigrants living close to the airport


IAH-Norway is bigger than SEA-Norway and the fares are higher. SEA is bigger to Sweden and Denmark.

Seattle has a large amount of Scandinavian immigrants? I mean, its one of the biggest in the country, but I wouldnt call it large in the slightest. Its certainly not going to fill any plane. If SK returns to SEA, it would be from business ties and maybe tourism:

Immigrants from Denmark by metro area as of 2017
New York: 2729
Los Angeles: 2016
San Francisco: 1624
Washington DC: 954
Seattle: 950
Miami: 906
Atlanta: 893
Chicago: 759
Boston: 727
San Diego: 681
San Jose: 584
Tampa: 519
Phoenix: 487
Houston: 467
Dallas: 414

Immigrants from Norway as of 2017
New York: 2390
Houston: 1668
Seattle: 1250
Los Angeles: 1166
San Francisco: 1027
Chicago: 736
Miami: 582
Minneapolis: 574
Portland: 524
Phoenix: 516
San Diego: 513
Washington: 457
Philadelphia: 370
Orlando: 352
Tampa: 341

Immigrants from Sweden as of 2017
New York: 4917
Los Angeles: 4588
San Francisco: 2333
Miami: 1676
Seattle: 1622
San Diego: 1616
Boston: 1584
Washington DC: 1243
San Jose: 1057
Houston: 998
Philadelphia: 963
Chicago: 907
Dallas: 874
Atlanta: 872
Orlando: 749

They may not be large compared to US standards but compared to Scandinavian standards they are large.
You are talking about three nations with a combined population about the size of the CSA population of Los Angeles. It's also the largest unserved US destination. There's a reason why FI is successful to SEA, a lot of those Pax are from Scandinavia.
Obviously it takes more than just some immigration ties to fill the aircraft. There's also a lot of cargo, some business ties etc. Not to mention connections. From CPH there's plenty of connections to Northern Germany, Poland, the Baltics and the rest of the Nordic Countries. From SEA there's plenty of connections with AS, which SAS already have an interline agreement with from LAX and SFO.
The whole point was that a route with both connections and a reasonable amount of O&D have a better chance of happening than a routes that almost entirely would have to rely on connections, like for example IAH.
Types flown: A319, A320, A32N, A321, A332, A333, A343, AT43, AT75, AT76, B717, B732, B735, B736, B737, B738, B752, B753, CRJ9, DC10, DH4D, DHC3, E135, E145, E175, E190, E195, F100, MD11, MD81, MD82, MD87, RJ1H
 
USAirALB
Posts: 2025
Joined: Tue Sep 11, 2007 4:46 am

Re: SAS growth in the future

Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:38 pm

I wonder if ARN-IAD would be a possibility.
RJ85, F70, E135, E140, E145, E70, E75, E90, CR2, CR7, CR9, 717, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 739, 744, 752, 753, 762, 772, 77E, 77W, 789, 319, 320, 321, 332, 333, 343, 359, 388
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 5873
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: SAS growth in the future

Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:40 pm

SASViking wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
SASViking wrote:
CPH-IAH (replacing SVG-IAH) is without a doubt a possibility due to it being two *A hubs, but I doubt it's gonna be SAS. The routes suites a UA 767/787 better, but that's doubtful as SK isn't a part of the Trans-Atlantic JV.
IAH also have the downside of being a relatively small O&D market from Scandinavia compared to destinations like SEA which has a large amount of Scandinavian immigrants living close to the airport


IAH-Norway is bigger than SEA-Norway and the fares are higher. SEA is bigger to Sweden and Denmark.

Seattle has a large amount of Scandinavian immigrants? I mean, its one of the biggest in the country, but I wouldnt call it large in the slightest. Its certainly not going to fill any plane. If SK returns to SEA, it would be from business ties and maybe tourism:

Immigrants from Denmark by metro area as of 2017
New York: 2729
Los Angeles: 2016
San Francisco: 1624
Washington DC: 954
Seattle: 950
Miami: 906
Atlanta: 893
Chicago: 759
Boston: 727
San Diego: 681
San Jose: 584
Tampa: 519
Phoenix: 487
Houston: 467
Dallas: 414

Immigrants from Norway as of 2017
New York: 2390
Houston: 1668
Seattle: 1250
Los Angeles: 1166
San Francisco: 1027
Chicago: 736
Miami: 582
Minneapolis: 574
Portland: 524
Phoenix: 516
San Diego: 513
Washington: 457
Philadelphia: 370
Orlando: 352
Tampa: 341

Immigrants from Sweden as of 2017
New York: 4917
Los Angeles: 4588
San Francisco: 2333
Miami: 1676
Seattle: 1622
San Diego: 1616
Boston: 1584
Washington DC: 1243
San Jose: 1057
Houston: 998
Philadelphia: 963
Chicago: 907
Dallas: 874
Atlanta: 872
Orlando: 749

They may not be large compared to US standards but compared to Scandinavian standards they are large.
You are talking about three nations with a combined population about the size of the CSA population of Los Angeles. It's also the largest unserved US destination. There's a reason why FI is successful to SEA, a lot of those Pax are from Scandinavia.
Obviously it takes more than just some immigration ties to fill the aircraft. There's also a lot of cargo, some business ties etc. Not to mention connections. From CPH there's plenty of connections to Northern Germany, Poland, the Baltics and the rest of the Nordic Countries. From SEA there's plenty of connections with AS, which SAS already have an interline agreement with from LAX and SFO.
The whole point was that a route with both connections and a reasonable amount of O&D have a better chance of happening than a routes that almost entirely would have to rely on connections, like for example IAH.


If Im being frank, they arent large by any standards. Ireland is smaller than all three countries and has way more immigrants in the US.

You had me until that last statement. IAH has a pretty large O&D to Scandinavia (especially Norway where only NYC, Florida, and California are bigger). SAS flew IAH-SVG for a time until the oil market crashed. So no, they wouldnt have to rely entirely on connections.

Im not saying IAH should be started ahead of SEA or any market, but the record needs to be straight.
Last edited by LAXdude1023 on Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"I dance and laugh among the rotten"
 
SpaceshipDC10
Posts: 6431
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2013 11:44 am

Re: SAS growth in the future

Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:41 pm

YYZORD wrote:
CPH-YUL for sure.


That would be great, even if it would crowd YUL even more at peak time.
 
OSL777FLYER
Posts: 152
Joined: Sun May 06, 2012 8:11 am

Re: SAS growth in the future

Tue Sep 17, 2019 9:03 pm

I wish they would fly OSL-ORD.

CPH-YUL, maybe? CPH-YYZ is covered by AC.

SAS flew to BKK from CPH in the past but stopped due to losing money on the route. Even with a 90% load factor they lost money on that route. I also do not think There is enough competition from Scandinavia to Thailand at the present time with Thai, Norwegian, plus Emirates and Finnair with one-stop flights.

Seattle SAS also flew in the past with their 767's. At one point SK and BA were the only carriers from Europe at SEA.
 
User avatar
SASViking
Posts: 253
Joined: Mon Dec 05, 2011 12:06 pm

Re: SAS growth in the future

Tue Sep 17, 2019 9:40 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
SASViking wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:

IAH-Norway is bigger than SEA-Norway and the fares are higher. SEA is bigger to Sweden and Denmark.

Seattle has a large amount of Scandinavian immigrants? I mean, its one of the biggest in the country, but I wouldnt call it large in the slightest. Its certainly not going to fill any plane. If SK returns to SEA, it would be from business ties and maybe tourism:

Immigrants from Denmark by metro area as of 2017
New York: 2729
Los Angeles: 2016
San Francisco: 1624
Washington DC: 954
Seattle: 950
Miami: 906
Atlanta: 893
Chicago: 759
Boston: 727
San Diego: 681
San Jose: 584
Tampa: 519
Phoenix: 487
Houston: 467
Dallas: 414

Immigrants from Norway as of 2017
New York: 2390
Houston: 1668
Seattle: 1250
Los Angeles: 1166
San Francisco: 1027
Chicago: 736
Miami: 582
Minneapolis: 574
Portland: 524
Phoenix: 516
San Diego: 513
Washington: 457
Philadelphia: 370
Orlando: 352
Tampa: 341

Immigrants from Sweden as of 2017
New York: 4917
Los Angeles: 4588
San Francisco: 2333
Miami: 1676
Seattle: 1622
San Diego: 1616
Boston: 1584
Washington DC: 1243
San Jose: 1057
Houston: 998
Philadelphia: 963
Chicago: 907
Dallas: 874
Atlanta: 872
Orlando: 749

They may not be large compared to US standards but compared to Scandinavian standards they are large.
You are talking about three nations with a combined population about the size of the CSA population of Los Angeles. It's also the largest unserved US destination. There's a reason why FI is successful to SEA, a lot of those Pax are from Scandinavia.
Obviously it takes more than just some immigration ties to fill the aircraft. There's also a lot of cargo, some business ties etc. Not to mention connections. From CPH there's plenty of connections to Northern Germany, Poland, the Baltics and the rest of the Nordic Countries. From SEA there's plenty of connections with AS, which SAS already have an interline agreement with from LAX and SFO.
The whole point was that a route with both connections and a reasonable amount of O&D have a better chance of happening than a routes that almost entirely would have to rely on connections, like for example IAH.


If Im being frank, they arent large by any standards. Ireland is smaller than all three countries and has way more immigrants in the US.

You had me until that last statement. IAH has a pretty large O&D to Scandinavia (especially Norway where only NYC, Florida, and California are bigger). SAS flew IAH-SVG for a time until the oil market crashed. So no, they wouldnt have to rely entirely on connections.

Im not saying IAH should be started ahead of SEA or any market, but the record needs to be straight.

I haven't said that there isn't any O&D to IAH, only that it is smaller than to for example SEA. There's twice as many Scandinavian immigrants in Washington State than Texas. SEA is also in top 10 of unserved routes from a Scandinavian airport, IAH isn't. It was not for fun that SAS served SEA for decades.
SVG-IAH was never going to be profitable (and never was) even though it was an all J 737. Most pax were spending their EuroBonus points on a fun flight, the O&D from SVG was too small and there was hardly any connections.
SEA have a reasonable amount of O&D from all three Scandinavian countries. IAH only have from Norway. CPH-SEA alone is a bigger market than any Norway-IAH route as per CPH and Avinor. OSL-IAD and OSL-SFO also have a bigger demand, as per Avinor, than OSL-IAH.
Types flown: A319, A320, A32N, A321, A332, A333, A343, AT43, AT75, AT76, B717, B732, B735, B736, B737, B738, B752, B753, CRJ9, DC10, DH4D, DHC3, E135, E145, E175, E190, E195, F100, MD11, MD81, MD82, MD87, RJ1H
 
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SASViking
Posts: 253
Joined: Mon Dec 05, 2011 12:06 pm

Re: SAS growth in the future

Tue Sep 17, 2019 9:41 pm

USAirALB wrote:
I wonder if ARN-IAD would be a possibility.

OSL-IAD is a safer bet especially with the A321LR's arriving soon
Types flown: A319, A320, A32N, A321, A332, A333, A343, AT43, AT75, AT76, B717, B732, B735, B736, B737, B738, B752, B753, CRJ9, DC10, DH4D, DHC3, E135, E145, E175, E190, E195, F100, MD11, MD81, MD82, MD87, RJ1H
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 5873
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: SAS growth in the future

Tue Sep 17, 2019 9:49 pm

SASViking wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
SASViking wrote:
They may not be large compared to US standards but compared to Scandinavian standards they are large.
You are talking about three nations with a combined population about the size of the CSA population of Los Angeles. It's also the largest unserved US destination. There's a reason why FI is successful to SEA, a lot of those Pax are from Scandinavia.
Obviously it takes more than just some immigration ties to fill the aircraft. There's also a lot of cargo, some business ties etc. Not to mention connections. From CPH there's plenty of connections to Northern Germany, Poland, the Baltics and the rest of the Nordic Countries. From SEA there's plenty of connections with AS, which SAS already have an interline agreement with from LAX and SFO.
The whole point was that a route with both connections and a reasonable amount of O&D have a better chance of happening than a routes that almost entirely would have to rely on connections, like for example IAH.


If Im being frank, they arent large by any standards. Ireland is smaller than all three countries and has way more immigrants in the US.

You had me until that last statement. IAH has a pretty large O&D to Scandinavia (especially Norway where only NYC, Florida, and California are bigger). SAS flew IAH-SVG for a time until the oil market crashed. So no, they wouldnt have to rely entirely on connections.

Im not saying IAH should be started ahead of SEA or any market, but the record needs to be straight.

I haven't said that there isn't any O&D to IAH, only that it is smaller than to for example SEA. There's twice as many Scandinavian immigrants in Washington State than Texas. SEA is also in top 10 of unserved routes from a Scandinavian airport, IAH isn't. It was not for fun that SAS served SEA for decades.
SVG-IAH was never going to be profitable (and never was) even though it was an all J 737. Most pax were spending their EuroBonus points on a fun flight, the O&D from SVG was too small and there was hardly any connections.
SEA have a reasonable amount of O&D from all three Scandinavian countries. IAH only have from Norway. CPH-SEA alone is a bigger market than any Norway-IAH route as per CPH and Avinor. OSL-IAD and OSL-SFO also have a bigger demand, as per Avinor, than OSL-IAH.


You really need to leave immigrants out of your argument. There are so very few anywhere in the US Seattle included. At best, they may be a small cherry on top, but the sundae has to be business ties.

On top of that, youre incorrect anyway. As of 2017, these were the immigrant numbers from Northern Europe (Scandinavia, Ireland, and UK) in each of these metro areas:

Greater Houston: 29,393
Seattle/Tacoma: 20,505
Dallas/Fort Worth: 14,869

Immigrants from Scandinavia alone:

Seattle/Tacoma: 3,641
Greater Houston: 3,028
Dallas/Fort Worth: 1,284

Unless there are huge numbers of Scandinavians in Spokane (and there arent) there is no way on earth there are twice as many Scandinavian immigrants in Washington as Texas.

As for SVG-IAH, it was started as soon as the oil market crashed so of course it wasnt going to last. SEA didnt last either. I dont see either of them starting personally. IAD is a better bet.
"I dance and laugh among the rotten"
 
BA
Posts: 10472
Joined: Fri May 19, 2000 11:06 am

Re: SAS growth in the future

Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:03 pm

SEA has seen a lot of new adds from Europe lately, I think SAS is late in the game if they're serious about launching CPH-SEA.
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RainerBoeing777
Topic Author
Posts: 420
Joined: Wed Jun 21, 2017 3:43 pm

Re: SAS growth in the future

Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:50 pm

SASViking wrote:
RainerBoeing777 wrote:
SAS enters a new era with the delivery of new aircraft generation with the arrival of the Airbus A350-900XWB and Airbus A321LR neo in its Long Haul fleet and Airbus A320neo in Short Haul improving the efficiency of its fleet. SAS could expand extensively as Finnair did with the arrival of the A350, possibly they can have the options of this model and add more A321LR or A321XLR and further expand their bases in OSL and ARN

Possible new routes could be Bangkok, Seattle, Seoul, India (Delhi / Mumbai), Canada (Montreal / Toronto) and Houston more frequencies to Los Angeles, San Francisco, Miami and New York

With the Haneda slot grant, CPH-NRT is obviously canceled and passed to CPH-HND, such SAS launches ARN-NRT although this route can be taken by All Nippon Airways (NH) since a slot was granted to them could also start ARN-HND, another candidate could be CPH-KIX

It would also be strategic for SAS some JV with Thai Airways and Singapore Airlines to battle with the ME2, there is much market without service from Southeast Asia and Australia to Scandinavia, more than the tourism of Tailando to Scandinavia is huge

http://www.therouteshop.com/profiles/stockholm-arlanda/
http://www.therouteshop.com/profiles/oslo-airport/
http://www.therouteshop.com/profiles/copenhagen-airport/

What are your expectations for the future of SAS?

SAS won't expand that much. The A350's are primarily a replacement for their A340s. They've ordered 8 A350s to replace 8 A340s.
Regarding the A321LR's SAS have mentioned that if the 3 they currently have on order are successful, then there is a possibility of them ordering some more.
LAX will already have more capacity as it will become daily from CPH from March 2020.
What I think will/could happen is:
CPH-NRT will move to HND. Either SAS will operate it entirely or it'll be a JV with ANA. Similar to what they currently have on CPH-SIN with SQ.
ARN-NRT is a possibility. Although I don't think that it has top priority after the failures of HKG and LAX from ARN.
CPH-BOS will go to a year-round A321LR.
OSL-ORD on the A321LR, perhaps only as a summer seasonal.
CPH-EWR (SK901/902) will also operate during the winter season with an A321LR.
CPH-SEA on the A330 freed from CPH-BOS going to the A321LR



Since one of the 8 Airbus A340-300 has already been replaced with the new Airbus A330-300E that arrived this year they have 3 new A321LR and 1 A350 to expand further, also remember that SAS has 6 options to buy A350 if they can do well acquire more models

OSL777FLYER wrote:
I wish they would fly OSL-ORD.

CPH-YUL, maybe? CPH-YYZ is covered by AC.

SAS flew to BKK from CPH in the past but stopped due to losing money on the route. Even with a 90% load factor they lost money on that route. I also do not think There is enough competition from Scandinavia to Thailand at the present time with Thai, Norwegian, plus Emirates and Finnair with one-stop flights.

Seattle SAS also flew in the past with their 767's. At one point SK and BA were the only carriers from Europe at SEA.


The Airbus A340-300 was somewhat deficient for this route, but with this new generation of aircraft they can improve the yields of this route

Miami wrote:
Making MIA year-round again would be ideal.


With the A321LR you can maintain MIA throughout the year from the 3 hubs
CX - JL - LH - KE - KL - SQ - QR - QF - TG
 
DWC
Posts: 608
Joined: Mon Nov 06, 2017 7:49 pm

Re: SAS growth in the future

Wed Sep 18, 2019 12:32 am

Lufthansa wrote:
The split hub thing is the problem. ARN is the logical point for going east, CPH for going south and the Americas.

Not quite.
Economics say ARN is too up north to be a hub for any flights from EU countries below to connect elsewhere in Scandinavia.
In addition, CPH saves precious combined fuel & flight time, as CPH is in the centre of Norway & Sweden to the North, Germany-UK-France to the south. For that reason, CPH is also a better location for flights flying to & coming in from Asia.
While Stockholm is a sizable city for Sweden, ARN is far (over 40 km), while the next swedish cities of Malmö, Lund and others can reach CPH by train chopped into the ferry boat, there now is a direct bridge-tunnel over the ithmus.
When SAS was launched by the 3 Scandinavian governments, with a combined population like Holland's, they did their homework to compete favourably with the likes of KLM & SR, and of course LH. In the 1960s-90s, SAS flew worldwide.

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
With the A321LR you can maintain MIA throughout the year from the 3 hubs

That is not how NB long haul works best, see the dedicated thread I posted ;)
That would mean 3 frames instead instead of 1, 6 engines & 6 pilots/FO instead of 2, that's a lot of deck crew immobilization for not much. In this case, a hub with WBs is the economic solution.
In the case of the 3 scandinavian capitals, the A321LR makes sense for any point to point route not needed at the other two hubs, that is where a LH NB can open or sustain a route.
Last edited by DWC on Wed Sep 18, 2019 12:48 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
trexel94
Posts: 133
Joined: Wed Aug 05, 2015 10:44 pm

Re: SAS growth in the future

Wed Sep 18, 2019 12:44 am

Would DEN be a possibility? Star Hub, large and fast growing tech and engineering sector, FI regularly flies full etc
 
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SASViking
Posts: 253
Joined: Mon Dec 05, 2011 12:06 pm

Re: SAS growth in the future

Wed Sep 18, 2019 3:37 am

LAXdude1023 wrote:
SASViking wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:

If Im being frank, they arent large by any standards. Ireland is smaller than all three countries and has way more immigrants in the US.

You had me until that last statement. IAH has a pretty large O&D to Scandinavia (especially Norway where only NYC, Florida, and California are bigger). SAS flew IAH-SVG for a time until the oil market crashed. So no, they wouldnt have to rely entirely on connections.

Im not saying IAH should be started ahead of SEA or any market, but the record needs to be straight.

I haven't said that there isn't any O&D to IAH, only that it is smaller than to for example SEA. There's twice as many Scandinavian immigrants in Washington State than Texas. SEA is also in top 10 of unserved routes from a Scandinavian airport, IAH isn't. It was not for fun that SAS served SEA for decades.
SVG-IAH was never going to be profitable (and never was) even though it was an all J 737. Most pax were spending their EuroBonus points on a fun flight, the O&D from SVG was too small and there was hardly any connections.
SEA have a reasonable amount of O&D from all three Scandinavian countries. IAH only have from Norway. CPH-SEA alone is a bigger market than any Norway-IAH route as per CPH and Avinor. OSL-IAD and OSL-SFO also have a bigger demand, as per Avinor, than OSL-IAH.


You really need to leave immigrants out of your argument. There are so very few anywhere in the US Seattle included. At best, they may be a small cherry on top, but the sundae has to be business ties.

On top of that, youre incorrect anyway. As of 2017, these were the immigrant numbers from Northern Europe (Scandinavia, Ireland, and UK) in each of these metro areas:

Greater Houston: 29,393
Seattle/Tacoma: 20,505
Dallas/Fort Worth: 14,869

Immigrants from Scandinavia alone:

Seattle/Tacoma: 3,641
Greater Houston: 3,028
Dallas/Fort Worth: 1,284

Unless there are huge numbers of Scandinavians in Spokane (and there arent) there is no way on earth there are twice as many Scandinavian immigrants in Washington as Texas.

As for SVG-IAH, it was started as soon as the oil market crashed so of course it wasnt going to last. SEA didnt last either. I dont see either of them starting personally. IAD is a better bet.

No I don't. You don't seem to understand the values of the history for us Scandinavians. Seattle is very well known by Scandinavians. Why? Because of the ties created by the immigration. I'm not saying that immigrants are everything in this case, but it adds something extra for the leisure travellers point of view. That bit extra is something that would make SEA a more favorable destination than others with similar business ties.
According to the US Census Bureau (whom I believe know their stuff) there are 739,043 Scandinavian Americans in Washington State vs. 359,360 in Texas. That's twice as many-ish. A lot of the 739,043 live in or around the Seattle area.

Finally SEA was closed, after 43 years (!!), due to the economic crisis, which hit SAS very hard. SAS closed 3 LH routes, CPH-SEA, CPH-DEL and ARN-PEK at the 2009/2010 winter schedule change. They also stored 2 A340s on top of that. SEA was profitable especially because of the cargo, but the route wasn't as "necessary" compared to EWR, ORD and IAD, which were the only US destinations left after those cuts.
Types flown: A319, A320, A32N, A321, A332, A333, A343, AT43, AT75, AT76, B717, B732, B735, B736, B737, B738, B752, B753, CRJ9, DC10, DH4D, DHC3, E135, E145, E175, E190, E195, F100, MD11, MD81, MD82, MD87, RJ1H
 
User avatar
SASViking
Posts: 253
Joined: Mon Dec 05, 2011 12:06 pm

Re: SAS growth in the future

Wed Sep 18, 2019 3:49 am

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
SASViking wrote:
RainerBoeing777 wrote:
SAS enters a new era with the delivery of new aircraft generation with the arrival of the Airbus A350-900XWB and Airbus A321LR neo in its Long Haul fleet and Airbus A320neo in Short Haul improving the efficiency of its fleet. SAS could expand extensively as Finnair did with the arrival of the A350, possibly they can have the options of this model and add more A321LR or A321XLR and further expand their bases in OSL and ARN

Possible new routes could be Bangkok, Seattle, Seoul, India (Delhi / Mumbai), Canada (Montreal / Toronto) and Houston more frequencies to Los Angeles, San Francisco, Miami and New York

With the Haneda slot grant, CPH-NRT is obviously canceled and passed to CPH-HND, such SAS launches ARN-NRT although this route can be taken by All Nippon Airways (NH) since a slot was granted to them could also start ARN-HND, another candidate could be CPH-KIX

It would also be strategic for SAS some JV with Thai Airways and Singapore Airlines to battle with the ME2, there is much market without service from Southeast Asia and Australia to Scandinavia, more than the tourism of Tailando to Scandinavia is huge

http://www.therouteshop.com/profiles/stockholm-arlanda/
http://www.therouteshop.com/profiles/oslo-airport/
http://www.therouteshop.com/profiles/copenhagen-airport/

What are your expectations for the future of SAS?

SAS won't expand that much. The A350's are primarily a replacement for their A340s. They've ordered 8 A350s to replace 8 A340s.
Regarding the A321LR's SAS have mentioned that if the 3 they currently have on order are successful, then there is a possibility of them ordering some more.
LAX will already have more capacity as it will become daily from CPH from March 2020.
What I think will/could happen is:
CPH-NRT will move to HND. Either SAS will operate it entirely or it'll be a JV with ANA. Similar to what they currently have on CPH-SIN with SQ.
ARN-NRT is a possibility. Although I don't think that it has top priority after the failures of HKG and LAX from ARN.
CPH-BOS will go to a year-round A321LR.
OSL-ORD on the A321LR, perhaps only as a summer seasonal.
CPH-EWR (SK901/902) will also operate during the winter season with an A321LR.
CPH-SEA on the A330 freed from CPH-BOS going to the A321LR



Since one of the 8 Airbus A340-300 has already been replaced with the new Airbus A330-300E that arrived this year they have 3 new A321LR and 1 A350 to expand further, also remember that SAS has 6 options to buy A350 if they can do well acquire more models


They had 9 A340's. 8 "regular" and 1 spare (LN-RKP). They then expanded a lot, so the spare A340 became a "regular". It's that 9th A340 (LN-RKP) that got replaced by an A330E (SE-REH). When they ordered the 8 A350s they only had the 8 A340s.
Within the last 5-ish years they've added 4 A330E (Not counting SE-REH) for expansion. Those 4 A330E's is the reason SAS opened LAX, HKG, MIA and BOS.
Only the 3 A321LR's will be an addition to the fleet
Types flown: A319, A320, A32N, A321, A332, A333, A343, AT43, AT75, AT76, B717, B732, B735, B736, B737, B738, B752, B753, CRJ9, DC10, DH4D, DHC3, E135, E145, E175, E190, E195, F100, MD11, MD81, MD82, MD87, RJ1H
 
B747forever
Posts: 13788
Joined: Mon May 21, 2007 9:50 pm

Re: SAS growth in the future

Wed Sep 18, 2019 4:32 am

SASViking wrote:

Finally SEA was closed, after 43 years (!!), due to the economic crisis, which hit SAS very hard. SAS closed 3 LH routes, CPH-SEA, CPH-DEL and ARN-PEK at the 2009/2010 winter schedule change. They also stored 2 A340s on top of that. SEA was profitable especially because of the cargo, but the route wasn't as "necessary" compared to EWR, ORD and IAD, which were the only US destinations left after those cuts.


Over the last few years SAS has expanded to BOS, MIA, SFO, LAX and HKG and has yet to return to SEA. If the route was truly so important they would have been back already.
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RainerBoeing777
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Re: SAS growth in the future

Wed Sep 18, 2019 5:05 am

SASViking wrote:
RainerBoeing777 wrote:
SASViking wrote:
SAS won't expand that much. The A350's are primarily a replacement for their A340s. They've ordered 8 A350s to replace 8 A340s.
Regarding the A321LR's SAS have mentioned that if the 3 they currently have on order are successful, then there is a possibility of them ordering some more.
LAX will already have more capacity as it will become daily from CPH from March 2020.
What I think will/could happen is:
CPH-NRT will move to HND. Either SAS will operate it entirely or it'll be a JV with ANA. Similar to what they currently have on CPH-SIN with SQ.
ARN-NRT is a possibility. Although I don't think that it has top priority after the failures of HKG and LAX from ARN.
CPH-BOS will go to a year-round A321LR.
OSL-ORD on the A321LR, perhaps only as a summer seasonal.
CPH-EWR (SK901/902) will also operate during the winter season with an A321LR.
CPH-SEA on the A330 freed from CPH-BOS going to the A321LR



Since one of the 8 Airbus A340-300 has already been replaced with the new Airbus A330-300E that arrived this year they have 3 new A321LR and 1 A350 to expand further, also remember that SAS has 6 options to buy A350 if they can do well acquire more models


They had 9 A340's. 8 "regular" and 1 spare (LN-RKP). They then expanded a lot, so the spare A340 became a "regular". It's that 9th A340 (LN-RKP) that got replaced by an A330E (SE-REH). When they ordered the 8 A350s they only had the 8 A340s.
Within the last 5-ish years they've added 4 A330E (Not counting SE-REH) for expansion. Those 4 A330E's is the reason SAS opened LAX, HKG, MIA and BOS.
Only the 3 A321LR's will be an addition to the fleet



must have had 7 Airbus A340-300 when the Boeing 767-300ER began to be removed, then one was leased for expansion, and the order of 8 + 6 options was to replace the 8 A340 in total, the current SAS fleet is of 9 A330 and 7 A340, as I mentioned earlier the new A330 that came in was to replace the leased A340, although I remain optimistic seeing the case of Finnair an order of 11 + 9 options of A350, the first 11 to replace the A340 and the 9 options to replace the A330 in the future, and now look they exercised the purchase of 19 A350s and they will keep the A330 in their fleet for further expansion and look at everything that grew Finnair is even very strong in star hub Alliance as BKK and SIN where SAS should be the leader, surely with the A350 they can recover SIN & BKK

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/SAS

Also remember that part of the SAS expansion where Star Alliance hubs, IAD, SFO, LAX routes that have added in recent years or high demand routes such as MIA
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Someone83
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Re: SAS growth in the future

Wed Sep 18, 2019 6:39 am

The issue with both OSL and ARN, is the total feed at CPH is much better. Into CPH the only thing lacking is nonstop feed from Northern Scandinavia. OSL and ARN has good domestic feed, but more or less lack the feed from Northern Europe and the Baltics, key market for SAS longhaul
 
Someone83
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Re: SAS growth in the future

Wed Sep 18, 2019 6:41 am

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
SASViking wrote:
RainerBoeing777 wrote:


Since one of the 8 Airbus A340-300 has already been replaced with the new Airbus A330-300E that arrived this year they have 3 new A321LR and 1 A350 to expand further, also remember that SAS has 6 options to buy A350 if they can do well acquire more models


They had 9 A340's. 8 "regular" and 1 spare (LN-RKP). They then expanded a lot, so the spare A340 became a "regular". It's that 9th A340 (LN-RKP) that got replaced by an A330E (SE-REH). When they ordered the 8 A350s they only had the 8 A340s.
Within the last 5-ish years they've added 4 A330E (Not counting SE-REH) for expansion. Those 4 A330E's is the reason SAS opened LAX, HKG, MIA and BOS.
Only the 3 A321LR's will be an addition to the fleet



must have had 7 Airbus A340-300 when the Boeing 767-300ER began to be removed, then one was leased for expansion, and the order of 8 + 6 options was to replace the 8 A340 in total, the current SAS fleet is of 9 A330 and 7 A340, as I mentioned earlier the new A330 that came in was to replace the leased A340, although I remain optimistic seeing the case of Finnair an order of 11 + 9 options of A350, the first 11 to replace the A340 and the 9 options to replace the A330 in the future, and now look they exercised the purchase of 19 A350s and they will keep the A330 in their fleet for further expansion and look at everything that grew Finnair is even very strong in star hub Alliance as BKK and SIN where SAS should be the leader, surely with the A350 they can recover SIN & BKK

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/SAS

Also remember that part of the SAS expansion where Star Alliance hubs, IAD, SFO, LAX routes that have added in recent years or high demand routes such as MIA


BTW, the leased A340, LN-RKP, SAS ended up buying at the end. To be used spares when scrapped

And regarding Star Alliance: SAS and United isn’t cooperating very well....
 
okobjorn
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Re: SAS growth in the future

Wed Sep 18, 2019 7:35 am

SASViking wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
SASViking wrote:

Finally SEA was closed, after 43 years (!!), due to the economic crisis, which hit SAS very hard. SAS closed 3 LH routes, CPH-SEA, CPH-DEL and ARN-PEK at the 2009/2010 winter schedule change. They also stored 2 A340s on top of that. SEA was profitable especially because of the cargo, but the route wasn't as "necessary" compared to EWR, ORD and IAD, which were the only US destinations left after those cuts.


Apparently, there was a very profitable salmon cargo agreement that kept up the route for so long. When that was terminated during the crisis, the route was terminated.
 
B777LRF
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Re: SAS growth in the future

Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:01 am

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
With the A321LR you can maintain MIA throughout the year from the 3 hubs


You can, but only if you wish to move an empty cabin across the ocean. MIA-CPH/ARN/OSL are all 10-hour flights, roughly 4200NM as the crow flies, give or take a 100 miles. That is currently outside the realms of possibility with an A321, whether LR or XLR. You need a 5000NM machine to do that year round.
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Someone83
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Re: SAS growth in the future

Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:10 am

okobjorn wrote:

Apparently, there was a very profitable salmon cargo agreement that kept up the route for so long. When that was terminated during the crisis, the route was terminated.


Actually, from SEA it was cherries.

Transporting salmon between Scandinavia and Seattle (either way) does’t makes much sense ;)
 
OSL777FLYER
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Re: SAS growth in the future

Wed Sep 18, 2019 9:24 am

As mentioned by several others, SK and UA do not code share on Trans-Atlantic flights, but they feed each other's flights. Therefore any new flights to the U.S. should be to places where UA has a significant presence.

IAH could be a contender, but you will need an A330. How are SK doing on OSL-EWR? Downsize to an A321 and put the A333 elsewhere, looking more towards Asia? What about an A321 to Dubai, or maybe not enough demand although it seems like most major European (and some of the smaller ones as well) all want to fly to Dubai.

Perhaps OSL-IAD?

From past experiences though, when launching new long-haul routes. They are either from CPH or ARN. The Danes always prefer for pretty much everything to go through CPH.

Regarding the SVG-IAH route, as some have mentioned. The route failed when oil prices dropped. However, this was a leased B737-700 all-business class aircraft. It was then reconfigured to C and Y class and used briefly on CPH-BOS I believe and on a second CPH-EWR flight in the summer season.

The A321LR could be a great aircraft, but we will see? Some people are now starting to question again the "options and comforts" of flying long-haul on a narrow-body aircraft. Just as they did back in the day with the B757.

Carsten Spohr of Lufthansa I believe was quoted as saying "It will be a nice aircraft but no game changer".

Just throwing it out there.

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