uta999
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Are chasing share price and globalisation to blame?

Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:39 pm

New Aircraft and aero-engine manufacture appear to be descending into chaos, from one crisis to another worldwide. It appears to affect them all, with most new products or their latest variant failing soon after EIS.

What is driving this and why is is getting worse? Could it be companies are not spending enough on R&D and testing, and are using the very cheapest suppliers from outside sources.

Frequently these companies cannot cope, or keep up with production, component quality or longevity. Bits wearing out faster than expected due to possible air pollution.

Are the accounts department looking at short-term share price, and is globalisation failing the industry?
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Weatherwatcher1
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Re: Are chasing share price and globalisation to blame?

Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:49 pm

I would fathom to guess that spending on R&D and testing has been increasing. Every year the regulations get tighter and more onerous while airlines are demanding more efficiency and cheaper airplanes. There is no easy answer for what to blame for the various challenges faced by the manufacturers.

If we look back, prior decades were no better. Many airplanes have been faced with development delays, production issues and crashes early in their service lives.
 
Antarius
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Re: Are chasing share price and globalisation to blame?

Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:58 pm

Demand has increased. As a result, earlier a flaw may be hidden for years due to the limited number of aircraft in the sky.

With the 737MAX, there were nearly 300 aircraft flying within 2 years of EIS for example. Probability of finding a design flaw increases exponentially.
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uta999
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Re: Are chasing share price and globalisation to blame?

Wed Sep 18, 2019 9:12 pm

Antarius wrote:
Demand has increased. As a result, earlier a flaw may be hidden for years due to the limited number of aircraft in the sky.

With the 737MAX, there were nearly 300 aircraft flying within 2 years of EIS for example. Probability of finding a design flaw increases exponentially.


Yet the 777 was virtually flawless from EIS for almost two decades, I suspect because it was CAD designed and built largely in-house.
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kalvado
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Re: Are chasing share price and globalisation to blame?

Wed Sep 18, 2019 9:29 pm

Another reason is that a lot of low-hanging fruit is picked up, and every extra percent of efficiency costs more and more - money, effort in developing and manufacturing. I wouldn't be surprised if current generation of planes (350-787, and next gen of narrowbodies) will outlive most people on this forum as replacements will cost more than what can be gained in efficiency.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Are chasing share price and globalisation to blame?

Wed Sep 18, 2019 9:48 pm

uta999 wrote:
Antarius wrote:
Demand has increased. As a result, earlier a flaw may be hidden for years due to the limited number of aircraft in the sky.

With the 737MAX, there were nearly 300 aircraft flying within 2 years of EIS for example. Probability of finding a design flaw increases exponentially.


Yet the 777 was virtually flawless from EIS for almost two decades, I suspect because it was CAD designed and built largely in-house.

That's far from true, especially for the customers who selected the GE90 engines.

The biggest difference is we have Twitter to spread bad news all around the globe in seconds, and we all carry phones to pick up such news immediately.

It's totally different than the days of waiting till AvWeek/Flight/etc showing up in your mailbox days/weeks/months after the fact.

It's not even clear if printed publications would make room for events such as in flight service disruptions due to engines, since that was "normal" back then.
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MIflyer12
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Re: Are chasing share price and globalisation to blame?

Wed Sep 18, 2019 11:38 pm

This is a pretty weak argument against globalization. Aviation has used extended supply chains for a long time - reflect on the original composition of Airbus, for example.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Are chasing share price and globalisation to blame?

Thu Sep 19, 2019 12:20 am

Revelation wrote:
uta999 wrote:
Antarius wrote:
Demand has increased. As a result, earlier a flaw may be hidden for years due to the limited number of aircraft in the sky.

With the 737MAX, there were nearly 300 aircraft flying within 2 years of EIS for example. Probability of finding a design flaw increases exponentially.


Yet the 777 was virtually flawless from EIS for almost two decades, I suspect because it was CAD designed and built largely in-house.

That's far from true, especially for the customers who selected the GE90 engines.

The biggest difference is we have Twitter to spread bad news all around the globe in seconds, and we all carry phones to pick up such news immediately.

It's totally different than the days of waiting till AvWeek/Flight/etc showing up in your mailbox days/weeks/months after the fact.

It's not even clear if printed publications would make room for events such as in flight service disruptions due to engines, since that was "normal" back then.

Agreed, we had a pool when the first GE-90 powered 777 would blow up. There was a close call where the cabin was filled with enough fuel vapor in Saudi.

Most aircraft failed ETOPS guidelines. Airlines today won't accept aircraft that couldn't meet mid 1990s IFSD rates. Today the PW1500G is getting roasted, but my calculations are it still meets guidelines.

The original GE-90 had combustor and fuel injector issues.

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Aesma
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Re: Are chasing share price and globalisation to blame?

Thu Sep 19, 2019 9:09 am

Didn't a GE90 also throw a blade early on ?
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Elementalism
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Re: Are chasing share price and globalisation to blame?

Thu Sep 19, 2019 2:40 pm

What would globalization have to do with any potential increase in design issues?
 
minilinde
Posts: 127
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Re: Are chasing share price and globalisation to blame?

Thu Sep 19, 2019 2:49 pm

Is there really a case for today's planes being more unsafe than earlier generations? Thinking of DC-10's etc. Aviation safety is ona all time high, with fewer and fewer accidents..
 
Noshow
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Re: Are chasing share price and globalisation to blame?

Thu Sep 19, 2019 3:04 pm

Isn't it exactly the opposite? Today is safe and boring:
A lot of financing has moved to the stock exchange. But investors don't like risk. So instead of revolutions you get evolutions. Warmed over heritage types and slow progress. Low risk no surprises.
However super efficient cost killers plan schedules without reserves so finally everybody still end's up with expensive delays all the time.

It would be time for some radical new aircraft using the full spectrum of today's available technologies. In the 60s avantgarde really had a meaning. Look at some Valkyrie, SR-71 or Concorde. Today it's subsonic twins with low wings and two engines. Throw in the odd CFRP instead of aluminum and that's almost it. No unducted fan, no blended wing body (well bombers), no VTOL, no supersonic. I'm hungry for innovation but please: no more fancy drones.
 
Sokes
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Re: Are chasing share price and globalisation to blame?

Thu Sep 19, 2019 6:02 pm

Something I posted in another topic:
"The first twinjet was A300. It's first flight was 1972 with around 220 kN engines. Wiki mentions that Airbus assumed people would prefer widebody comfort over
frequency.
B767 had first flight in 1981. Surprising the engines didn't really become stronger. I assume Boeing chose 7 abrest to increase range versus A300.
First ETOPS 90 by 1995.
A330 had first flight in 1992. Engines somewhere around 311 kN.
B777 had first flight 1994. Engines around 350 kN, but already one year later 410 kN."

I assume the 1970s were required to make engines more reliable. I further assume the same is true for today. But maybe somebody with more knowledge can comment on that.

But I do agree RR would have done better if they had avoided gambling with derivatives. Many believe that Boeing could have done better with less outsourcing for the B787.
How is this related to globalisation? If RR is incorporated in England and the British regulator prohibits companies to deal in derivates, RR wouldn't be able to gamble. Similar if the American regulator would prohibit manager bonuses, there would be less risk appetite in Boeing's management. These are failures of national politics. Globalisation is a blessing and helps to uplift the real poor of the world.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?

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