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lightsaber
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2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Fri Sep 20, 2019 1:32 pm

The 2029 global market forcast is out:

https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/market/ ... ecast.html

What struck me is just shy of 40,000 aircraft needed.

The middle class grew from about 1 billion in 2000 to 2.7 billion today. Those are the travelers. The prediction is by the end of the 20 year prediction, 2/3rds of the global population will be middle class.

My opinion is aviation helps industrial growth and pulls people into the middle class. Those people then travel. Unfortunately, once the majority of the population is middle class, that means slowing aviation growth. This is the last 20 year period, in my opinion, of doubling+ aviation growth.

Enjoy and discuss,
Lightsaber
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tommy1808
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Fri Sep 20, 2019 1:49 pm

I find it interesting that Airbus expects Europe to be a bigger market than north America.

lightsaber wrote:
This is the last 20 year period, in my opinion, of doubling+ aviation growth.


The world population is expected to top out at 10 ~ 12 Billion, that is still a lot of growth possible. If they are all born into middle class, that growth may double flying all by itself.

There is also still a lot of upwards room after entering middle class. More and longer flights once you start being able to afford flying.

I would give it one or two more decades.

Best regards
Thomas
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Fri Sep 20, 2019 2:12 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
I find it interesting that Airbus expects Europe to be a bigger market than north America.

lightsaber wrote:
This is the last 20 year period, in my opinion, of doubling+ aviation growth.


The world population is expected to top out at 10 ~ 12 Billion, that is still a lot of growth possible. If they are all born into middle class, that growth may double flying all by itself.

There is also still a lot of upwards room after entering middle class. More and longer flights once you start being able to afford flying.

I would give it one or two more decades.

Best regards
Thomas

Historically, aviation travel doubles every 15 to 30 years. I expect future growth, I do not expect 2038s traffic to be doubled in 2058. I do expect 2038s traffic to be over double 2018s. That doesn't mean no growth. If I were to do an estimate, I would expect 2058 traffic to be 150% of 2038. Now, 2038 might be 300% of 2018, so this is saying 2058 will be 300% to 450% of 2018. Growth, but the other side of the growth S-curve.

Lightsaber
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eurotrader85
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Fri Sep 20, 2019 2:50 pm

Very interesting. also an interesting departure from Airbus to more point to point on 'mid range' flexible aircraft as they put it, from the hub and spoke model of big and small.

There is no doubt aviation demand will continue to grow, and it is interesting, all be it to be expected with the growth of LCC, that load factor has increased significantly, as well as plane utilisation.

However I wonder if the forecast actually underestimates the demand. It forecasts 40,000 new aircraft, the majority (75%) small, and only 2/3 are expansions, the rest renewals, all be it slightly larger aircraft. There is only so much extra load factor utilisation that can be eeked out. Also, while Asia is as it points out is the majority of the growth, there is only so much infrastructure expansion that will be built to match this demand. Apart from seemingly China, most countries in the world, even in Asia, run into usual local bureaucracy that besets infrastructure investment like the much debated expansion at LHR. Thus I wonder come ten years down the line, will the section they call large actually become a larger weighting than they are forecasting. More and more so, routes that are currently forecast to be on A320s in the years coming be moving into A321s, A321s into A330s and A330s into the A350s? Bricks and mortar investment is sticky, political and takes a long time to implement (outside China), buying bigger planes is the quicker fix to get more bums on seats and cash through the door. Que the A380 fans :)
 
T4thH
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Fri Sep 20, 2019 3:05 pm

lightsaber wrote:
The 2029 global market forcast is out:

https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/market/ ... ecast.html

What struck me is just shy of 40,000 aircraft needed.

The middle class grew from about 1 billion in 2000 to 2.7 billion today. Those are the travelers. The prediction is by the end of the 20 year prediction, 2/3rds of the global population will be middle class.

My opinion is aviation helps industrial growth and pulls people into the middle class. Those people then travel. Unfortunately, once the majority of the population is middle class, that means slowing aviation growth. This is the last 20 year period, in my opinion, of doubling+ aviation growth.

Enjoy and discuss,
Lightsaber

Please note:
Not included in these listings are all regional jets (up to 100 seats)
Not included are also all turboprops.

OK, the regional market numbers are unimportant; around 2400 jets flying in 2039 (according Boeing), of them less than 2000 new produced and 1600 flying in US.
Turboprop market is always interesting, hard to get numbers.
 
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Fri Sep 20, 2019 3:47 pm

eurotrader85 wrote:
However I wonder if the forecast actually underestimates the demand. It forecasts 40,000 new aircraft, the majority (75%) small, and only 2/3 are expansions, the rest renewals, all be it slightly larger aircraft. There is only so much extra load factor utilisation that can be eeked out.

All prior reports have underestimated the 20 year growth. ;)

So I do think 2038 will be a larger market than the report.

As to infrastructure, Navi Mumbai, Navi Delhi, Daxing, new runways at PVG & CAN... I don't see a push to A380 size. More A320 to 797 size. Too many slots are used on small aircraft. I might be a fan of the MRJ, but upgauging of the majority of aircraft, narriwbodies and RJs is what will happen.

Lightsaber
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JayinKitsap
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Fri Sep 20, 2019 4:50 pm

I think we have seen a higher 'wave' of orders the last decade. Both A & B are producing at annual rates 50% higher than a decade ago, yet backlogs are out 5 to 8 years. 18 months ago US Class 8 truck orders were at crazy record highs, now orders have collapsed. Aviation has cycles, I see we are in a slow order period that may last 3-4 years, then kick back up. Yes, as Lightsaber noted, the running average 20 year growth has exceeded expectations for possibly 30 years.

Outside of the A220 and the E2 jets which are below the 737/320 size, all of the new planes brought into service the last 20 have been larger and further range. With the NEO/MAX narrow body range grew by 15%, but now on most routes the plane has excess capability. The 787, A350, and the 77W/77x all provide capabilities not previously available. Again, for most routes the planes have excess capability, a huge amount of 8-9 hour flights originally done with the 763ER and A330 do not need the capability.

The market is ripe for new clean sheets that have capabilities in both the middle market and in the narrow bodies. Here is where Airbus's projection of the NMA market is low (2,500 in 20 years). How many years did they project the A380 market as being 1,000 over 20 years, while they had sold 40 over the 5 previous years
 
VV
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Fri Sep 20, 2019 5:07 pm

Where has the Very Large Aircraft category gone?
 
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Sat Sep 21, 2019 5:02 pm

lightsaber wrote:
All prior reports have underestimated the 20 year growth.
Lightsaber


If one watches an interview with Warren Buffet one is quite likely to hear something like "I don't know what the market is going to do next year.".
Imagine the world had not to lower interests in 2008. Imagine China had to introduce democracy 10 years back. Imagine there had to be a trade war ten years back. Imagine...
To be polemic: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tasseography


lightsaber wrote:
I don't see a push to A380 size. More A320 to 797 size. Too many slots are used on small aircraft. I might be a fan of the MRJ, but upgauging of the majority of aircraft, narriwbodies and RJs is what will happen.
Lightsaber


I totally agree.
I always found slot constriction a false argument for the A380 considering that intercontinental flights are only a small fraction of flights even on hubs.
Shall we add wake turbulences?

Image

source:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wake_turbulence
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VV
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Sat Sep 21, 2019 8:16 pm

Okay, now everyone agrees this is the end of the A380.

I still remember being slaughtered for saying that it didn't have a future.

Where are those people who said firmly that the aircraft was absolutely needed?
Where are those people who said it had a bright future?

All of a sudden they changed their mind?

Very interesting.
 
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Sat Sep 21, 2019 8:19 pm

VV wrote:
Where has the Very Large Aircraft category gone?


Hehehe. Really? It died with the 748 and the A380.
 
VV
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Sat Sep 21, 2019 9:54 pm

SteelChair wrote:
VV wrote:
Where has the Very Large Aircraft category gone?


Hehehe. Really? It died with the 748 and the A380.


Why did those aircraft disappear?
Perhaps because there has never been any market.
 
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Sat Sep 21, 2019 11:50 pm

VV wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
VV wrote:
Where has the Very Large Aircraft category gone?


Hehehe. Really? It died with the 748 and the A380.


Why did those aircraft disappear?
Perhaps because there has never been any market.


You answered your own question.
 
VV
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Sun Sep 22, 2019 6:10 am

SteelChair wrote:
VV wrote:
SteelChair wrote:

Hehehe. Really? It died with the 748 and the A380.


Why did those aircraft disappear?
Perhaps because there has never been any market.


You answered your own question.


Then why did those clever people, supported by hundreds of a betters, make a market forecast demonstrating the "existence" of the market and launched the A380?
 
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enzo011
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Sun Sep 22, 2019 7:44 am

VV wrote:
Then why did those clever people, supported by hundreds of a betters, make a market forecast demonstrating the "existence" of the market and launched the A380?



What are you looking for?
 
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Sun Sep 22, 2019 8:26 am

enzo011 wrote:
VV wrote:
Then why did those clever people, supported by hundreds of a betters, make a market forecast demonstrating the "existence" of the market and launched the A380?



What are you looking for?


I am looking for the answer as where the very large aircraft category has gone.
 
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Sun Sep 22, 2019 11:56 am

enzo011 wrote:
VV wrote:
Then why did those clever people, supported by hundreds of a betters, make a market forecast demonstrating the "existence" of the market and launched the A380?


What are you looking for?


Broken clock syndrome.
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SteelChair
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Sun Sep 22, 2019 12:07 pm

There never was any market. The people who did those studies were wrong, perhaps on purpose. People change data to fit desired outcomes, see "man caused global warming," or, "peak oil, or, "housing crisis," or, Trump Russia collusion," to name just a few.

There was no airline capacity crisis, and if there was, the A380 certainly wasn't the solution. And STC and his little toy, the virtual airline EK also aren't real or a solution to any real problem. Nor is all of Dubai for that matter. It's all a shell game imho, actually a shell within a shell within a shell.

Happy now?
 
Vladex
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Sun Sep 22, 2019 12:15 pm

VV wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
VV wrote:
Where has the Very Large Aircraft category gone?


Hehehe. Really? It died with the 748 and the A380.


Why did those aircraft disappear?
Perhaps because there has never been any market.


Because of the lack of modern engines and over order and production of narrow bodies. There is a huge market for it but the airlines are gun shy and short sighted.
 
VV
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Sun Sep 22, 2019 12:17 pm

scbriml wrote:
enzo011 wrote:
VV wrote:
Then why did those clever people, supported by hundreds of a betters, make a market forecast demonstrating the "existence" of the market and launched the A380?


What are you looking for?


Broken clock syndrome.


What does it mean?

Haven't you read here a whole bunch of people writing how badly the world needed very large aircraft?

"You can only compete against A380 using A380", haven't you heard that slogan.

What happened to those people? All of a sudden everyone seems to agree that there has never been any need for those aircraft.

Do you remember how badly other who thought differently have been treated?

There is suddenly a mass amnesia about how important VLA "is" for the future of air travel.
 
Prost
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Sun Sep 22, 2019 1:43 pm

Airbus owns their error and has corrected it. I don’t know that a public execution of the people who brought the A380 to market accomplishes anything.
 
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Sun Sep 22, 2019 3:20 pm

Prost wrote:
Airbus owns their error and has corrected it. I don’t know that a public execution of the people who brought the A380 to market accomplishes anything.


That would be too lenient for some.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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VV
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Sun Sep 22, 2019 3:24 pm

SteelChair wrote:
There never was any market. The people who did those studies were wrong, perhaps on purpose. People change data to fit desired outcomes, see "man caused global warming," or, "peak oil, or, "housing crisis," or, Trump Russia collusion," to name just a few.

There was no airline capacity crisis, and if there was, the A380 certainly wasn't the solution. And STC and his little toy, the virtual airline EK also aren't real or a solution to any real problem. Nor is all of Dubai for that matter. It's all a shell game imho, actually a shell within a shell within a shell.

Happy now?


No.

I still haven't heard about those people here in a.net who treated others who said VLA was in small market.

How could they be so mean to others? What the heck are they thinking now when it is proven that there is no market for VLA?
 
Prost
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Sun Sep 22, 2019 3:40 pm

I see a pile of bodies at the base of the A380 factory. Let me check their ID to make certain it’s them.
 
Vladex
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Sun Sep 22, 2019 4:02 pm

VV wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
There never was any market. The people who did those studies were wrong, perhaps on purpose. People change data to fit desired outcomes, see "man caused global warming," or, "peak oil, or, "housing crisis," or, Trump Russia collusion," to name just a few.

There was no airline capacity crisis, and if there was, the A380 certainly wasn't the solution. And STC and his little toy, the virtual airline EK also aren't real or a solution to any real problem. Nor is all of Dubai for that matter. It's all a shell game imho, actually a shell within a shell within a shell.

Happy now?


No.

I still haven't heard about those people here in a.net who treated others who said VLA was in small market.

How could they be so mean to others? What the heck are they thinking now when it is proven that there is no market for VLA?
\

I know you have a holy war on Airbus going here and on your vlog so I am not here to convince you just as an insight to others . Airbus have a VLA going now and its A321NEO which the airlines have chosen as a safe bet and which willl take over A380 factory space They could have had some lean times with A380 as every program has but they chose to go with red hot A321 instead.
However it can't last, and I think 5 years from now many will be begging for A380 like aircraft for a variety of reasons like engine developments and engine limits of twins, airport congestion and inherent delays and as a competitive advantage of single hub airlines which is most of them and the more hubs airline has the worse it gets in terms of product and service.
 
VV
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Sun Sep 22, 2019 4:10 pm

Vladex wrote:

I know you have a holy war on Airbus going here and on your vlog so I am not here to convince you just as an insight to others . ....


War against Airbus?? This is the kind of sentence that I hate most.

I just pointing out that there was no market for VLA. Is that a "war against Airbus"?

The truth is now there. VLA has gone out from the landscape. Therefore my view was correct.

You have a very strange view about other people's view. Why can't you just say, "Yes, I was wrong about VLA."?
 
Vladex
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Sun Sep 22, 2019 4:21 pm

VV wrote:
Vladex wrote:

I know you have a holy war on Airbus going here and on your vlog so I am not here to convince you just as an insight to others . ....


War against Airbus?? This is the kind of sentence that I hate most.

I just pointing out that there was no market for VLA. Is that a "war against Airbus"?

The truth is now there. VLA has gone out from the landscape. Therefore my view was correct.

You have a very strange view about other people's view. Why can't you just say, "Yes, I was wrong about VLA."?


You really don't like Airbus and it's all rigtht and I am not here to convince you , I just point that the VLA is A321 for now but it won't last . Actually A321 had even worse sales numbers than A380 for the first 12 years (1994-2006) but is now the favorite which shows that things can change with time. It actually sold more this year than in those 12 years.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Sun Sep 22, 2019 4:26 pm

Sometime in the 30s (and I likely will not be around) electric hybrid planes (quiet and STOL) will have a major affect on transportation for flights of one or two hours. Growing to three hours faster than we can no imagine. Boeing and Airbus are preparing. But newcomers could pop up.
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VV
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Sun Sep 22, 2019 5:10 pm

Vladex wrote:
VV wrote:
Vladex wrote:

I know you have a holy war on Airbus going here and on your vlog so I am not here to convince you just as an insight to others . ....


War against Airbus?? This is the kind of sentence that I hate most.

I just pointing out that there was no market for VLA. Is that a "war against Airbus"?

The truth is now there. VLA has gone out from the landscape. Therefore my view was correct.

You have a very strange view about other people's view. Why can't you just say, "Yes, I was wrong about VLA."?


You really don't like Airbus and it's all rigtht and I am not here to convince you , I just point that the VLA is A321 for now but it won't last . Actually A321 had even worse sales numbers than A380 for the first 12 years (1994-2006) but is now the favorite which shows that things can change with time. It actually sold more this year than in those 12 years.


Why don't you just admit that your opinion about VLA was wrong and it is now proven?
 
VV
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Sun Sep 22, 2019 5:47 pm

I understand that the purpose of this forum is just to discuss and not really to find a truth, but after years of bashing those who didn't believe VLA would be successful and tagged then as "Airbus haters" or "Airbus basher", I think it is time to accept the reality.

Yes those people who said VLA market is small were right and it is not because they said so they were "Airbus basher".
It was simply a coincidence that Airbus seemed to have believed VLA was the future.

It was also a coincidence that there are now more than 1,400 orders for the 787. It does not make a "Boeing fanboy" to say that the 787 has been a success.

Seriously?

Boeing decided to not offer the 747-8 Intercontinental (the passenger version) several years ago, although they still try to sell more 747-8 freighters.
Airbus decided this year to stop A380 production in 2021.
That's okay and I find it a very good decision instead of stubbornly insist on building an aircraft that has not a lot of demand.

I hope everyone accepts that reality and admit they made a mistake when they bashed those people who said VLA didn't have a future.

Yeah, people make mistake. That's normal.
But please admit that some of you have been very harsh toward those who are finally proved to be correct in their opinion.
 
majano
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Sun Sep 22, 2019 7:14 pm

VV wrote:
I understand that the purpose of this forum is just to discuss and not really to find a truth, but after years of bashing those who didn't believe VLA would be successful and tagged then as "Airbus haters" or "Airbus basher", I think it is time to accept the reality.

Yes those people who said VLA market is small were right and it is not because they said so they were "Airbus basher".
It was simply a coincidence that Airbus seemed to have believed VLA was the future.

It was also a coincidence that there are now more than 1,400 orders for the 787. It does not make a "Boeing fanboy" to say that the 787 has been a success.

Seriously?

Boeing decided to not offer the 747-8 Intercontinental (the passenger version) several years ago, although they still try to sell more 747-8 freighters.
Airbus decided this year to stop A380 production in 2021.
That's okay and I find it a very good decision instead of stubbornly insist on building an aircraft that has not a lot of demand.

I hope everyone accepts that reality and admit they made a mistake when they bashed those people who said VLA didn't have a future.

Yeah, people make mistake. That's normal.
But please admit that some of you have been very harsh toward those who are finally proved to be correct in their opinion.

Can you please stop dragging this thread off-topic by seeking some sort of glory?
 
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enzo011
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Sun Sep 22, 2019 7:32 pm

VV wrote:
I am looking for the answer as where the very large aircraft category has gone.


VV wrote:
What happened to those people? All of a sudden everyone seems to agree that there has never been any need for those aircraft.


Seems you want two different things and not to find out where the Airbus Large Aircraft Category went. Why don't you name and shame them, those you feel were telling people the A380 is the best thing since sliced bread, then the others can bring out those names denying there were problems with the 787 when it came to roll out and that it was going to fly and on-time and it was going to be the best thing since sliced bread.

Or maybe you just want to be told how great you were for seeing the truth. Well done, from me, well done. But I doubt that will make you happy. Rather, if you wanted to know why they changed the definition of Large Aircraft in the forecast, just ask it again in a new post and maybe we can debate that. But I suspect that is not what you really want.
 
VV
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Mon Sep 23, 2019 6:08 am

majano wrote:
....

Can you please stop dragging this thread off-topic by seeking some sort of glory?


What if it is true?
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Mon Sep 23, 2019 8:01 am

Vladex wrote:
VV wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
There never was any market. The people who did those studies were wrong, perhaps on purpose. People change data to fit desired outcomes, see "man caused global warming," or, "peak oil, or, "housing crisis," or, Trump Russia collusion," to name just a few.

There was no airline capacity crisis, and if there was, the A380 certainly wasn't the solution. And STC and his little toy, the virtual airline EK also aren't real or a solution to any real problem. Nor is all of Dubai for that matter. It's all a shell game imho, actually a shell within a shell within a shell.

Happy now?


No.

I still haven't heard about those people here in a.net who treated others who said VLA was in small market.

How could they be so mean to others? What the heck are they thinking now when it is proven that there is no market for VLA?
\

I know you have a holy war on Airbus going here and on your vlog so I am not here to convince you just as an insight to others . Airbus have a VLA going now and its A321NEO which the airlines have chosen as a safe bet and which willl take over A380 factory space They could have had some lean times with A380 as every program has but they chose to go with red hot A321 instead.
However it can't last, and I think 5 years from now many will be begging for A380 like aircraft for a variety of reasons like engine developments and engine limits of twins, airport congestion and inherent delays and as a competitive advantage of single hub airlines which is most of them and the more hubs airline has the worse it gets in terms of product and service.


This is my point of view as well.
It may take a little longer than 5 years but we will get to that point eventually.
Airlines are upsizing their short haul fleets, while their long haul fleets are either stagnating or shrinking.
In fact, they are cornering themselves into a vicious circle of upsizing their loss-making operations while choking the profitable part of the business.

At the end of the day, I think that it makes most sense for a major airline at a major hub to dominate through O&D. But, no they chase O&D onto 1-stop options and would rather compensate that loss by pulling in more connecting pax from competing hubs or cities onto bigger narrow bodies.

For instance, a carrier like BA doesn't need a fleet of larger narrowbodies. In fact, it doesn't need a fleet of narrowbodies at all, they have enough O&D in their home market to fill A380's to 30 cities multiple times per day.

The yield management strategy of offering lower fares to pax originating in other hubs rather than to your local O&D only makes sense when you have a small home market and need to "steal" from larger hubs. That is for instance the case for a KLM or a LX.
But when you have a huge home market, you should be securing the homely O&D rather than waste resources chasing passengers from other hubs.
 
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SQ22
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Mon Sep 23, 2019 8:57 am

This thread is ablut the current forecast and I agree it would be interesting to browse through all the old forecast and wonder why they have changed sp much, not only for VLA planes but also for toerh ones. Howevery this justifies its own thread, so feel free to open one and discuss it there, but let's stay on topic here. Thanks.
 
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zeke
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Mon Sep 23, 2019 9:04 am

VV wrote:

Why did those aircraft disappear?
Perhaps because there has never been any market.


The aircraft have not disappeared, look on page 51. they still show over 1215 aircraft in the 400+ seat category.

VV wrote:
What if it is true?


Your claims are not true, refer to page 51 of the report linked by the OP.
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inkjet7
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Mon Sep 23, 2019 9:52 am

zeke wrote:
The aircraft have not disappeared, look on page 51. they still show over 1215 aircraft in the 400+ seat category.


These could be 410 pax 777X's, or A350-1000's for some markets, even A339's for others.
 
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zeke
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Mon Sep 23, 2019 10:22 am

inkjet7 wrote:
These could be 410 pax 777X's, or A350-1000's for some markets, even A339's for others.


Even the A330-300 operated by Cebu fitted the definition, it was >400 seater passenger aircraft or >80 tonne freighter aircraft.

I looked back at the 2015 GMF, they had 1275 aircraft in the category back then, very little change to the 1215 this year. They have always had it pegged at around 4-5% of the total. Anything from A330, 77F, 777, 747, A350, MD-11, A380 all fits the category.
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par13del
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Mon Sep 23, 2019 10:48 am

SQ22 wrote:
This thread is ablut the current forecast and I agree it would be interesting to browse through all the old forecast and wonder why they have changed sp much, not only for VLA planes but also for toerh ones. Howevery this justifies its own thread, so feel free to open one and discuss it there, but let's stay on topic here. Thanks.

If I take off my fan boy glasses I may start to question the experts who came up with certain aspects of this forecast and the underlying data used for their analysis, as other poster said, the broken clock syndrome. Unfortunately, that syndrome also applies to those experts whose predictions we take as gospel and we will do everything that is necessary to justify their conclusions.
I suspect that mods are already lining up to delete a number of post.
 
VV
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Mon Sep 23, 2019 10:48 am

zeke wrote:
VV wrote:

Why did those aircraft disappear?
Perhaps because there has never been any market.


The aircraft have not disappeared, look on page 51. they still show over 1215 aircraft in the 400+ seat category.

VV wrote:
What if it is true?


Your claims are not true, refer to page 51 of the report linked by the OP.


Basically you're trying to say that there is still 400+ aircraft category.
However A380 and 747-8 Intercontinental are dead.

It is interesting how you try to spin the fact much lower total cabin area can have 400+ seats.

This sounds like rubbish to me.
 
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zeke
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Mon Sep 23, 2019 11:05 am

VV wrote:
Basically you're trying to say that there is still 400+ aircraft category.
However A380 and 747-8 Intercontinental are dead.

It is interesting how you try to spin the fact much lower total cabin area can have 400+ seats.

This sounds like rubbish to me.


I deal with facts, and the facts I have laid out.

Others are too lazy to read what the documents, and come out with non factual comments and beliefs.

I will reiterate what I posted earlier, the Very Large marge segment was defined in previous GMF as being >400 seats or >80 tonnes, Boeing use a very similar figure. At no stage did Airbus ever say that all aircraft in the very large segment would be A380s, likewise Boeing never said 747.

Airbus has continued in this GMF to provide the numbers on page 51 showing the 1215 very large passenger aircraft expected, in addition to the passenger aircraft you will also see they expect 356 large freighters (>80 tonnes), 70% of them new builds and 30% conversions. (pg 142).

The data is right there in black and white.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Mon Sep 23, 2019 11:20 am

zeke wrote:
VV wrote:
Basically you're trying to say that there is still 400+ aircraft category.
However A380 and 747-8 Intercontinental are dead.


I deal with facts, and the facts I have laid out.

[...]

I will reiterate what I posted earlier, the Very Large marge segment was defined in previous GMF as being >400 seats or >80 tonnes, Boeing use a very similar figure. At no stage did Airbus ever say that all aircraft in the very large segment would be A380s, likewise Boeing never said 747.

[...]

The data is right there in black and white.


I thank you for your patience...
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zeke
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Mon Sep 23, 2019 11:44 am

VV wrote:
The fact is that A380 will cease production in 2021 with a total of about 251 deliveries when the expectation war more than 1000 deliveries.

And it was supported by a lot of people around here.


There was never an expectation of more than 1000 A380s, if memory serves the RLI for the A380 was based on 200 aircraft, it was only based on 400 aircraft for the A320. There has always been an expectation for >1000 aircraft in that segment, I did add them up at one stage and it was well on track.

The fact that the cessation of the A380 production in 2021 had been announced before the GMF only further goes to support what I have been saying, both manufacturers are expecting an aircraft demand in that segment beyond 2021, and that demand will not only be filled by the A380 or 747. That is all the GMF says.

Are you willing to wager US$10,000 with every a.net member that there will not any >400 seat passenger aircraft or >80 tonne freighter aircraft delivered by Airbus and Boeing beyond 2021 ?

Who has the forecast correct, you or the OEMs ?
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
VV
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Mon Sep 23, 2019 12:03 pm

zeke wrote:
VV wrote:
The fact is that A380 will cease production in 2021 with a total of about 251 deliveries when the expectation war more than 1000 deliveries.

And it was supported by a lot of people around here.


There was never an expectation of more than 1000 A380s, if memory serves the RLI for the A380 was based on 200 aircraft, it was only based on 400 aircraft for the A320. There has always been an expectation for >1000 aircraft in that segment, I did add them up at one stage and it was well on track.
...


OMG.
That's not true.
 
VV
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Mon Sep 23, 2019 12:07 pm

Initially the production rate was supposed to be at least about 40 per year.
Zeke, are you serious?

Image
 
Unflug
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Mon Sep 23, 2019 3:40 pm

VV wrote:
majano wrote:
....

Can you please stop dragging this thread off-topic by seeking some sort of glory?


What if it is true?


Still off-topic, even if true. And your claim that the category >400 has disappeared in the GMF isn't even true...
 
VV
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Mon Sep 23, 2019 3:56 pm

Unflug wrote:
VV wrote:
majano wrote:
....

Can you please stop dragging this thread off-topic by seeking some sort of glory?


What if it is true?


Still off-topic, even if true. And your claim that the category >400 has disappeared in the GMF isn't even true...


I think you all try to play around with the notion of VLA.
VLA is not a capacity it is an aircraft.
So let's be clear. VLA were 747-8 intercontinental and A380. Both dead.

It is too bad for those aircraft, but that's life.

The very large aircraft category has disappeared. It really is too bad for those who defended the bright future of A380 and 747-8 Intercontinental.

A hell lot of people had that opinion, that VLA and especoally the A380, was the solution to many things.

It is not the case and it is proven with the end of A380 production in 2021. Get over it.
 
Exeiowa
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Mon Sep 23, 2019 4:30 pm

There can be a demand for something that cannot be filled economically. As in, that cannot be designed and built for a profit. I am sure if size did not effect operating and purchasing cost we would be flying around in the largest plane possible with bunches of empty seat, but over here in the real world that is not going to happen.
 
VV
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Mon Sep 23, 2019 4:34 pm

Exeiowa wrote:
There can be a demand for something that cannot be filled economically. As in, that cannot be designed and built for a profit. I am sure if size did not effect operating and purchasing cost we would be flying around in the largest plane possible with bunches of empty seat, but over here in the real world that is not going to happen.


It is called a small market for very big aircraft.
 
Strato2
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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Mon Sep 23, 2019 4:38 pm

VV wrote:
[
VLA is not a capacity it is an aircraft.


Not according to Airbus or Boeing it hasn't been. So you are dead wrong.

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