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Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Posted: Mon Sep 23, 2019 5:05 pm
by lightsaber
Folks, keep civil. The GMO is more than one category. The reports never talk a model of aircraft. This allowed transition from 727 to 757 without invalidating prior reports.

Both vendors know new aircraft will enter the market. I worked a VLA that wasn't a Boeing or Airbus product.

Airbus and Boeing are well aware the C919 and MS21 will take some part of the market.

These surveys have a history of underpredicting grown and over estimating the size category. Not just VLA, but look at Boeing CMAs and 757 sales... Oops.

But they are the best guidance for the market.

Lightsaber

Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Posted: Mon Sep 23, 2019 7:20 pm
by VV
Strato2 wrote:
VV wrote:
[
VLA is not a capacity it is an aircraft.


Not according to Airbus or Boeing it hasn't been. So you are dead wrong.


I hope you agree that the A380 will cease production in 2021 with only a total of about 261 deliveries, despite the opinion of many in this forum about the absolute need for this VLA.

They were wrong.

Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Posted: Mon Sep 23, 2019 8:26 pm
by Finn350
Airbus has redefined its categories in its newest market forecast based on “neutral seating categories”. Based on the last 10 years deliveries, A320 Family corresponds to 125-250 “neutral seating categories” and A330 Family corresponds to 210-350 “neutral seating categories”.

Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Posted: Mon Sep 23, 2019 10:38 pm
by DWC
VV wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
VV wrote:
Why did those aircraft disappear?
Perhaps because there has never been any market.

You answered your own question.

Then why did those clever people, supported by hundreds of a betters, make a market forecast demonstrating the "existence" of the market and launched the A380?

Because of market failure all across the board in the years prior to & after 2000 when the A380 was launched :
1. airport congestion, delays, noise & fuel pollution all externalized to the public, public is not reacting enough (sheeple)
2. new engine technology in the process hid from Airbus, says Leahy : thus imperfect & asymmetric information.
3. inefficient use of frames on some expected routes, like CX or BA flying WBs 30' to 4h apart LHR-HKG or LHR-JFK
4. by the same token, unforeseen rise of the ME3, specially EK : the ME3 have a skybridge or sky train UK-DXB-Oz
5. unforeseen shift from dedicated cargo frames to passenger frames-bellies
6. unforeseen success scale of the 773, took over the 744.
7. unforeseen 2001 crisis & the slump thereafter.
8. abysmal bugs & delays of Airbus' own making, including not making the A388 the optimized platform
9. traditionnal airlines shy after all these events
10. No consideration for the majority of the Demand : PAX actually love it & enough go out of their way to fly a VLA
there is more.
And more reasons why the success was also unlikely, Boeing saw that right. They launched the 748i not to sell really, but to cap the A380 price & also Airbus' ability to negociate wider fleet campaigns, a strategic move ( taught at Harvard Biz School as a typical industrial / business case ), paid for by healthy 748F sales.
And later new efficient twin WBs nailed the ageing VLAs.

So the market was there in 2000. And still is : cramming >400 Pax into A330s or 10 abreast 777s points to VLA demand.
In Economics, it doesn't matter what the frame is, but what is their capacity & operation costs.
Thus canning >400 sardines is a VLA in name or as a dedicated model.

Yet what we know today is markedly different from what was known then to the clever people.
As many here have said, the 773 is in many ways superior to operate than the A380.
But the VLA are not gone actually : technically, the 77X is a VLA.
The "market" in itself is not to blame, but rather their deciders : they played small instead of the Big Picture, with the notable exception of EK who proved Airbus right beyond belief. Whilst less efficient, the 748 is also a remarkable plane, not just as 748F. Interesting that LH & KE ordered both VLAs.

Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Posted: Tue Sep 24, 2019 6:05 am
by Finn350
VV wrote:
Strato2 wrote:
VV wrote:
[
VLA is not a capacity it is an aircraft.


Not according to Airbus or Boeing it hasn't been. So you are dead wrong.


I hope you agree that the A380 will cease production in 2021 with only a total of about 261 deliveries, despite the opinion of many in this forum about the absolute need for this VLA.

They were wrong.


In the previous market forecast, Airbus categorized aircraft as Single-aisle, Twin-aisle and Very Large Aircraft (more than two aisles). That categorization is gone, and the new categorization is based on "neutral seating". As I understand it, any plane configured with 450+ seats belongs to that "neutral seating" category, and basically that covers largest twin-aisles with maximum seating configured.

Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Posted: Tue Sep 24, 2019 8:40 am
by VV
Finn350 wrote:
VV wrote:
Strato2 wrote:

Not according to Airbus or Boeing it hasn't been. So you are dead wrong.


I hope you agree that the A380 will cease production in 2021 with only a total of about 261 deliveries, despite the opinion of many in this forum about the absolute need for this VLA.

They were wrong.


In the previous market forecast, Airbus categorized aircraft as Single-aisle, Twin-aisle and Very Large Aircraft (more than two aisles). That categorization is gone, and the new categorization is based on "neutral seating". As I understand it, any plane configured with 450+ seats belongs to that "neutral seating" category, and basically that covers largest twin-aisles with maximum seating configured.


That's not right.

There has not been any three aisle aircraft category so far.

I quit this thread because people here seem to live in a kind of universe I do not understand.

It looks like the whole discussion is just to avoid saying that the very large aircraft and especially the A380 is not the right answer to air travel growth.

Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Posted: Tue Sep 24, 2019 8:59 am
by scbriml
VV wrote:
There has not been any three aisle aircraft category so far.


He said more than two. The 747 has three aisles and the A380 has four.

VV wrote:
I quit this thread because people here seem to live in a kind of universe I do not understand.


But you keep coming back.

Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Posted: Tue Sep 24, 2019 3:09 pm
by DWC
scbriml wrote:
VV wrote:
There has not been any three aisle aircraft category so far.

He said more than two. The 747 has three aisles and the A380 has four.

In most cases yes, but depends on upper deck configuration : EY's A380s only have 3. But you are absolutely right in pointing out that the A380 was designed as a "Quad-aisle", something that somehow goes unnoticed when saying just "double-decker".

On a sidenote :
the A380 was assembled in France, that not only championned Airbus but also Arianespace & their train network, the TGV & "TGV Duplex" introduced a few years before the the A380. As the world's largest touristic destination, 90 million in 2018 ( similar to what transits at say ATL, DXB, PEK ) plus all the Europeans ( essentially UK, BRD (BundesRepublik Deutschland ), Benelux ) who flock through their highways & trains with no stopover ( other than gaz or train stations ) to Italy, Spain & the Maghreb, SNCF started cramming in more seats into their trains, just like in aviation in Y class : slim seats, less pitch and a second aisle on top.
Image

In a world where travel doubles every 15 years, the trend for double-deckers is everywhere, not just on London busses or double levelled speedways like in Chicago or Mexico City, in high-density countries suburbian trains are often double-deckers ( France, Germany, Holland, China, US with their CA Capitol Ltd line, more comfy than coach TGV, just snail paced ). One just cannot build more frequency or point-to-point tracks & that is valid for aviation at some point. So two remarks :
1. to what extent did the TGV double-decker philosophy in train mass-transport actually influence Airbus & the A380 ?
2. from economic maximization & organizational minimization perspectives, double-deckers are one solution. Efficient WB twins have taken "the market" by storm forgood reasons depending on POVs, but with heavy externalities, of which global pollution & aiport constraints are just some of the major limitations.
The world will need more VLAs & perhaps new double-deckers in the future - just not the A388. Question is when.

Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Posted: Tue Sep 24, 2019 3:58 pm
by Finn350
DWC wrote:
scbriml wrote:
VV wrote:
There has not been any three aisle aircraft category so far.

He said more than two. The 747 has three aisles and the A380 has four.

In most cases yes, but depends on upper deck configuration : EY's A380s only have 3. But you are absolutely right in pointing out that the A380 was designed as a "Quad-aisle", something that somehow goes unnoticed when saying just "double-decker".


EY's A380 upper deck is single-aisle only for the First class. Business class is twin-aisle as everybody else.

Regarding TGV double-deckers, I don't think that had any bearing on A380 design, as the solution to increase capacity (double-decker wide-body) is the logical solution.

Re: 2019 Airbus Global market forcast

Posted: Tue Sep 24, 2019 4:08 pm
by DWC
Good point for J in EK ;)

Technically, I don't see relevance either, I was thinking more in terms of that unconscious Zeitgeist thing, ideas "being in the air", as to why Airbus went ahead with the project & Boeing didn't ( despite plans for a MD-12), both being subject to the same market studies & same physical constraints. Other than being aerodynamic & transporting pax massively, TGV & airplanes are two very different technological machines.
Yet the double-decker TGV was quite slow to ramp-up, but after two decades is now France's principal TGV workhorse, not unlike what EK did.