winstonavgeek
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Air Senegal to launch flights from Dakar to Washington-Dulles

Fri Sep 20, 2019 10:33 pm

According to Senegal's Minister of Tourism, Air Senegal plans to launch flights between IAD and Dakar using their A330NEO within the next 6 months. What are your thoughts on the matter?

Link: https://onemileatatime.com/air-senegal-washington/
 
MaverickM11
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Re: Air Senegal to launch flights from Dakar to Washington-Dulles

Fri Sep 20, 2019 10:47 pm

This will speed up their demise 100%
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BWA900
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Re: Air Senegal to launch flights from Dakar to Washington-Dulles

Fri Sep 20, 2019 11:36 pm

They may be launching this due to the fact that they lost the DSS-IAD flight served by SAA. If they play their cards right and even add UA as a codeshare, this may actually work.
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chepos
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Re: Air Senegal to launch flights from Dakar to Washington-Dulles

Fri Sep 20, 2019 11:58 pm

My thoughts? Unnecessary prestige route.


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usflyer msp
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Re: Air Senegal to launch flights from Dakar to Washington-Dulles

Sat Sep 21, 2019 12:01 am

BWA900 wrote:
They may be launching this due to the fact that they lost the DSS-IAD flight served by SAA. If they play their cards right and even add UA as a codeshare, this may actually work.


Why would UA want to codeshare with them?
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Air Senegal to launch flights from Dakar to Washington-Dulles

Sat Sep 21, 2019 12:08 am

Is their DSS operation structured such that they get meaningful feed? It’s not a super long route (shorter than IAD-FRA) so maybe not as crazy as some New York prestige routes like GYD.
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usflyer msp
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Re: Air Senegal to launch flights from Dakar to Washington-Dulles

Sat Sep 21, 2019 12:11 am

Cubsrule wrote:
Is their DSS operation structured such that they get meaningful feed? It’s not a super long route (shorter than IAD-FRA) so maybe not as crazy as some New York prestige routes like GYD.


No. They have five planes. Most of their flights are only a few times a week.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Air Senegal to launch flights from Dakar to Washington-Dulles

Sat Sep 21, 2019 1:35 am

usflyer msp wrote:
BWA900 wrote:
They may be launching this due to the fact that they lost the DSS-IAD flight served by SAA. If they play their cards right and even add UA as a codeshare, this may actually work.


Why would UA want to codeshare with them?


There's not a lot of ways for UA to route people to Dakar. Brussels Airlines? Sure - how is that better for UA than codesharing this flight?
 
WWads
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Re: Air Senegal to launch flights from Dakar to Washington-Dulles

Sat Sep 21, 2019 1:50 am

And why exactly would United want to apply one of their flight numbers to such an airline?
 
eal
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Re: Air Senegal to launch flights from Dakar to Washington-Dulles

Sat Sep 21, 2019 1:55 am

People's knowledge about Senegal Airlines: 0, People's assumptions cause it's from Africa: 10,000

Air Senegal has a very modern fleet, no major issues, it serves as an investment tool for the Senegalese government, its purpose is not to be 100% profitable
 
avek00
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Re: Air Senegal to launch flights from Dakar to Washington-Dulles

Sat Sep 21, 2019 2:35 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:
BWA900 wrote:
They may be launching this due to the fact that they lost the DSS-IAD flight served by SAA. If they play their cards right and even add UA as a codeshare, this may actually work.


Why would UA want to codeshare with them?


There's not a lot of ways for UA to route people to Dakar. Brussels Airlines? Sure - how is that better for UA than codesharing this flight?


UA has a revenue sharing joint venture agreement with Brussels Airlines. Much more lucrative (and less risky) opportunity for UA than the Air Senegal proposal.
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Air Senegal to launch flights from Dakar to Washington-Dulles

Sat Sep 21, 2019 2:49 am

Air Senegal has the problem that it's competing against a leaner operation from DL who flies DSS-JFK on a narrow-body plane (B752 with Delta One). That plane, on a sub-daily route, is easier to fill than an A339.

As for feed, this might require cooperation with ASKY if you ask me, but the problem there that ASKY feeds into ET's fifth freedom network elsewhere in West Africa, particularly at LFW and ABJ. ET being arguably Africa's best run airline is hard to beat.
 
alexdelzotto1
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Re: Air Senegal to launch flights from Dakar to Washington-Dulles

Sat Sep 21, 2019 3:46 am

I would have guessed YUL
 
MaverickM11
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Re: Air Senegal to launch flights from Dakar to Washington-Dulles

Sat Sep 21, 2019 4:02 am

eal wrote:
People's knowledge about Senegal Airlines: 0, People's assumptions cause it's from Africa: 10,000

Air Senegal has a very modern fleet, no major issues, it serves as an investment tool for the Senegalese government, its purpose is not to be 100% profitable

We've literally seen this story at least 2-3 times before. Odds are solid it will end the same way as the other ones.
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smallmj
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Re: Air Senegal to launch flights from Dakar to Washington-Dulles

Sat Sep 21, 2019 7:52 am

alexdelzotto1 wrote:
I would have guessed YUL


I would love to see this, especially if they can partner with a Canadian airline to feed some connections. Though AC might counter with a Rouge flight on the same route.

If wishes were fishes....
 
evanb
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Re: Air Senegal to launch flights from Dakar to Washington-Dulles

Sat Sep 21, 2019 10:27 am

eal wrote:
People's knowledge about Senegal Airlines: 0, People's assumptions cause it's from Africa: 10,000

Air Senegal has a very modern fleet, no major issues, it serves as an investment tool for the Senegalese government, its purpose is not to be 100% profitable


Sure, expensive new planes without the operational experience to operate them so they're effectively wet leasing them from Hi Fly. This cannot be anything other than expensive. So while not the goal to be profitable, it will be a very, very expensive expedition.
 
clrd4t8koff
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Re: Air Senegal to launch flights from Dakar to Washington-Dulles

Sat Sep 21, 2019 11:13 am

alexdelzotto1 wrote:
I would have guessed YUL


Why?
 
raylee67
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Re: Air Senegal to launch flights from Dakar to Washington-Dulles

Sat Sep 21, 2019 2:47 pm

clrd4t8koff wrote:
alexdelzotto1 wrote:
I would have guessed YUL


Why?


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behramjee
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Re: Air Senegal to launch flights from Dakar to Washington-Dulles

Sat Sep 21, 2019 3:59 pm

Just to provide some real facts - P2P round trip pax demand to North America from Dakar is as follows for the past 12 months :

NYC 32,000
IAD 19,000
YUL 17,000

FYI the average fare for IAD from DSS is +35% higher yielding than YUL as YUL is primarily student / vfr traffic with hardly any J class demand.
 
PSAatSAN4Ever
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Re: Air Senegal to launch flights from Dakar to Washington-Dulles

Sat Sep 21, 2019 4:05 pm

BWA900 wrote:
They may be launching this due to the fact that they lost the DSS-IAD flight served by SAA. If they play their cards right and even add UA as a codeshare, this may actually work.


This was my first thought as well. SA ran this route for many years, meaning there was enough premium demand to pay the bills, even if only three times per week.

Now, the questions everyone seems to be looking into their crystal balls to ask are, "is this route going to survive on BOTH ends purely by O&D?" and "will there be feed at the other end?". Air Senegal would be wise to at least talk to United, as any kind of additional feed would not only be icing on the cake, but would realistically only come from United at IAD.

United could say no, but I don't see any loss for them if they say yes. Having code-shared with SA for years on this route, they know the numbers, and the would probably have a good idea of the costs involved in this one route. And if Air Senegal can receive feed on its end, perhaps this airline can align itself with other African airlines to become one of the "big" and reliable carriers there. Dakar certainly lends itself geographically to being the on the most direct route for numerous locations to the U.S. Come on - let me dream big on this one.

Now, will this succeed? Not a clue in the world. Not going to speculate, as I don't remotely have any of the facts needed to draw any conclusion. I know only that a Senegalese carrier will probably have lower costs at the relatively expensive new DSS, I believe this is one of the reasons why SA stopped JNB-IAD via Dakar; however, Air Senegal might be able to negotiate lower costs.

I hope it works out, but Africa-U.S. is a tough nut. The only thing I can say with confidence is that each route is a case-by-case-by-carrier situation, and it is entirely wait-and-see. I will cross my fingers for them, but the rest is up to Air Senegal.
 
DCAfan
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Re: Air Senegal to launch flights from Dakar to Washington-Dulles

Sat Sep 21, 2019 4:49 pm

Air Senegal will be the sixith African carrier at IAD after Ethiopian, Souuth Afirican, Royal Air Maroc, EgyptAir, and Cabo Verdi Airlines. Pretty impressive from my point of view.
 
usflyer msp
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Re: Air Senegal to launch flights from Dakar to Washington-Dulles

Sat Sep 21, 2019 5:43 pm

PSAatSAN4Ever wrote:
BWA900 wrote:
They may be launching this due to the fact that they lost the DSS-IAD flight served by SAA. If they play their cards right and even add UA as a codeshare, this may actually work.


This was my first thought as well. SA ran this route for many years, meaning there was enough premium demand to pay the bills, even if only three times per week.

Now, the questions everyone seems to be looking into their crystal balls to ask are, "is this route going to survive on BOTH ends purely by O&D?" and "will there be feed at the other end?". Air Senegal would be wise to at least talk to United, as any kind of additional feed would not only be icing on the cake, but would realistically only come from United at IAD.

United could say no, but I don't see any loss for them if they say yes. Having code-shared with SA for years on this route, they know the numbers, and the would probably have a good idea of the costs involved in this one route. And if Air Senegal can receive feed on its end, perhaps this airline can align itself with other African airlines to become one of the "big" and reliable carriers there. Dakar certainly lends itself geographically to being the on the most direct route for numerous locations to the U.S. Come on - let me dream big on this one.

Now, will this succeed? Not a clue in the world. Not going to speculate, as I don't remotely have any of the facts needed to draw any conclusion. I know only that a Senegalese carrier will probably have lower costs at the relatively expensive new DSS, I believe this is one of the reasons why SA stopped JNB-IAD via Dakar; however, Air Senegal might be able to negotiate lower costs.

I hope it works out, but Africa-U.S. is a tough nut. The only thing I can say with confidence is that each route is a case-by-case-by-carrier situation, and it is entirely wait-and-see. I will cross my fingers for them, but the rest is up to Air Senegal.


UA is not a charity. Codeshares are not free and it seems to me that UA would be baring alot of costs for little benefit. They already already serve Dakar via their much more lucrative JV with SN and doubt they would be interested in foregoing that for the meagre prorates that Air Senegal would offer.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Air Senegal to launch flights from Dakar to Washington-Dulles

Sat Sep 21, 2019 5:44 pm

behramjee wrote:
Just to provide some real facts - P2P round trip pax demand to North America from Dakar is as follows for the past 12 months :

NYC 32,000
IAD 19,000
YUL 17,000

FYI the average fare for IAD from DSS is +35% higher yielding than YUL as YUL is primarily student / vfr traffic with hardly any J class demand.


So 365 pax per week on the IAD-DSS route. So the entire weekly demand can fit in a single HiFly A330-900NEO (which carries 18/353). Run two flights a week and you won't break 50 percent.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Air Senegal to launch flights from Dakar to Washington-Dulles

Sat Sep 21, 2019 6:19 pm

wjcandee wrote:
behramjee wrote:
Just to provide some real facts - P2P round trip pax demand to North America from Dakar is as follows for the past 12 months :

NYC 32,000
IAD 19,000
YUL 17,000

FYI the average fare for IAD from DSS is +35% higher yielding than YUL as YUL is primarily student / vfr traffic with hardly any J class demand.


So 365 pax per week on the IAD-DSS route. So the entire weekly demand can fit in a single HiFly A330-900NEO (which carries 18/353). Run two flights a week and you won't break 50 percent.


In fairness, a nonstop would likely result in a fair amount of market growth on paper because this is a market ripe for double ticketing over various Euro hubs. Of course, that’s not going to be more than double digit percentage increases so it’s still nowhere near the number of seats that will be on offer.
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usflyer msp
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Re: Air Senegal to launch flights from Dakar to Washington-Dulles

Sat Sep 21, 2019 6:26 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
behramjee wrote:
Just to provide some real facts - P2P round trip pax demand to North America from Dakar is as follows for the past 12 months :

NYC 32,000
IAD 19,000
YUL 17,000

FYI the average fare for IAD from DSS is +35% higher yielding than YUL as YUL is primarily student / vfr traffic with hardly any J class demand.


So 365 pax per week on the IAD-DSS route. So the entire weekly demand can fit in a single HiFly A330-900NEO (which carries 18/353). Run two flights a week and you won't break 50 percent.


In fairness, a nonstop would likely result in a fair amount of market growth on paper because this is a market ripe for double ticketing over various Euro hubs. Of course, that’s not going to be more than double digit percentage increases so it’s still nowhere near the number of seats that will be on offer.


There already Is a non-stop on SA and those are still the #.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Air Senegal to launch flights from Dakar to Washington-Dulles

Sat Sep 21, 2019 6:40 pm

usflyer msp wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
wjcandee wrote:

So 365 pax per week on the IAD-DSS route. So the entire weekly demand can fit in a single HiFly A330-900NEO (which carries 18/353). Run two flights a week and you won't break 50 percent.


In fairness, a nonstop would likely result in a fair amount of market growth on paper because this is a market ripe for double ticketing over various Euro hubs. Of course, that’s not going to be more than double digit percentage increases so it’s still nowhere near the number of seats that will be on offer.


There already Is a non-stop on SA and those are still the #.


SA cut that route, didn’t they? I can’t see any indication that it’s currently operational.
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usflyer msp
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Re: Air Senegal to launch flights from Dakar to Washington-Dulles

Sat Sep 21, 2019 6:44 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:

In fairness, a nonstop would likely result in a fair amount of market growth on paper because this is a market ripe for double ticketing over various Euro hubs. Of course, that’s not going to be more than double digit percentage increases so it’s still nowhere near the number of seats that will be on offer.


There already Is a non-stop on SA and those are still the #.


SA cut that route, didn’t they? I can’t see any indication that it’s currently operational.


SAA just ended the route on 9/1/19 so the data for the last 12 months would include their flights.
 
PSAatSAN4Ever
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Re: Air Senegal to launch flights from Dakar to Washington-Dulles

Sat Sep 21, 2019 8:50 pm

usflyer msp wrote:
PSAatSAN4Ever wrote:
BWA900 wrote:
They may be launching this due to the fact that they lost the DSS-IAD flight served by SAA. If they play their cards right and even add UA as a codeshare, this may actually work.


This was my first thought as well. SA ran this route for many years, meaning there was enough premium demand to pay the bills, even if only three times per week.

Now, the questions everyone seems to be looking into their crystal balls to ask are, "is this route going to survive on BOTH ends purely by O&D?" and "will there be feed at the other end?". Air Senegal would be wise to at least talk to United, as any kind of additional feed would not only be icing on the cake, but would realistically only come from United at IAD.

United could say no, but I don't see any loss for them if they say yes. Having code-shared with SA for years on this route, they know the numbers, and the would probably have a good idea of the costs involved in this one route. And if Air Senegal can receive feed on its end, perhaps this airline can align itself with other African airlines to become one of the "big" and reliable carriers there. Dakar certainly lends itself geographically to being the on the most direct route for numerous locations to the U.S. Come on - let me dream big on this one.

Now, will this succeed? Not a clue in the world. Not going to speculate, as I don't remotely have any of the facts needed to draw any conclusion. I know only that a Senegalese carrier will probably have lower costs at the relatively expensive new DSS, I believe this is one of the reasons why SA stopped JNB-IAD via Dakar; however, Air Senegal might be able to negotiate lower costs.

I hope it works out, but Africa-U.S. is a tough nut. The only thing I can say with confidence is that each route is a case-by-case-by-carrier situation, and it is entirely wait-and-see. I will cross my fingers for them, but the rest is up to Air Senegal.


UA is not a charity. Codeshares are not free and it seems to me that UA would be baring alot of costs for little benefit. They already already serve Dakar via their much more lucrative JV with SN and doubt they would be interested in foregoing that for the meagre prorates that Air Senegal would offer.


I am sorry you missed my point. I am not advocating one way or the other. That is for United and Air Senegal to discuss, if they even want to discuss it. I am saying that it wouldn't hurt either side to look at the numbers and perhaps discuss the matter. Both sides can say no, but given that this route worked for a while on SA, the potential is there.

The only people who know for sure are those at United and Air Senegal. None of us have that insight or know any of the details, least of all me. Perhaps it could come to fruition; perhaps the venture won't start at all. And if in the end United will make that decision, it will only be after having completed a cost-benefit analysis done on their part. All of these are simply my accounting for possibilities and reasonings.
 
by738
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Re: Air Senegal to launch flights from Dakar to Washington-Dulles

Sat Sep 21, 2019 9:07 pm

this either wont come to anything or wont last
 
Planeboy17
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Re: Air Senegal to launch flights from Dakar to Washington-Dulles

Sat Sep 21, 2019 10:10 pm

DCAfan wrote:
Air Senegal will be the sixith African carrier at IAD after Ethiopian, Souuth Afirican, Royal Air Maroc, EgyptAir, and Cabo Verdi Airlines. Pretty impressive from my point of view.

I disagree. I’d say it’s VERY impressive.
 
behramjee
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Re: Air Senegal to launch flights from Dakar to Washington-Dulles

Sat Sep 21, 2019 10:48 pm

In mid October, the 2nd A330-900Neo shall get delivered and during the delivery ceremony, more information shall be revealed by CEO concerning network expansion plans for W19 and S20.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Air Senegal to launch flights from Dakar to Washington-Dulles

Sat Sep 21, 2019 11:26 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
There's not a lot of ways for UA to route people to Dakar. Brussels Airlines? Sure - how is that better for UA than codesharing this flight?

That's an easy answer:
UA has antitrust immunity with BN, and can share revenues and coordinate schedules with them.

They can't do that to the same extent with this newer carrier, so not much incentive for them to upset their revenue stream via BRU.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Air Senegal to launch flights from Dakar to Washington-Dulles

Sun Sep 22, 2019 1:33 am

It's not as easy as you want to think it is. UA/SN can 'coordinate capacity (ie reduce available seat to drive up prices) between WAS and BRU but have no meaningful capacity control between WAS and DSS with numerous other time-efficient one-stop offerings on the route by TAP, DL, AF and Royal Air Maroc. UA is still going to get paid for a codeshare. You can't know which is the more profitable for UA.
 
ScottB
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Re: Air Senegal to launch flights from Dakar to Washington-Dulles

Sun Sep 22, 2019 4:25 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
It's not as easy as you want to think it is. UA/SN can 'coordinate capacity (ie reduce available seat to drive up prices) between WAS and BRU but have no meaningful capacity control between WAS and DSS with numerous other time-efficient one-stop offerings on the route by TAP, DL, AF and Royal Air Maroc. UA is still going to get paid for a codeshare. You can't know which is the more profitable for UA.


The relevant market isn't just WAS-DSS -- it is North America-DSS. It's not necessarily in UA's interest to accept a small amount for a pro-rate on a domestic segment to IAD connecting to DSS when they get a much bigger chunk of the fare connecting over BRU on SN. DL/AF won't compete aggressively on price with UA on U.S.A.-Senegal and the North American footprints of both TP and AT are minimal.

PSAatSAN4Ever wrote:
given that this route worked for a while on SA, the potential is there.


WAS-Dakar wasn't served by SA because it was a strong market in and of itself. It was essentially a tech stop on which they had local traffic rights. A bit of extra traffic between the U.S. and Senegal/S.A. and Senegal helped to sustain the route -- but it's not as if SA has been particularly successful financially, either.

eal wrote:
Air Senegal has a very modern fleet, no major issues, it serves as an investment tool for the Senegalese government, its purpose is not to be 100% profitable


So... Senegal has a per capita GDP of $1,500/year and the government budget is heavily dependent on foreign aid. There are probably better uses for that money than subsidizing an airline vanity project.
 
usflyer msp
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Re: Air Senegal to launch flights from Dakar to Washington-Dulles

Sun Sep 22, 2019 6:26 am

eal wrote:
Air Senegal has a very modern fleet, no major issues, it serves as an investment tool for the Senegalese government, its purpose is not to be 100% profitable


So... Senegal has a per capita GDP of $1,500/year and the government budget is heavily dependent on foreign aid. There are probably better uses for that money than subsidizing an airline vanity project.[/quote]

Not to menntion, this is Senegal's FOURTH attempt at creating a national carrier in 17 years. At what point do you accept defeat???
 
AF022
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Re: Air Senegal to launch flights from Dakar to Washington-Dulles

Tue Sep 24, 2019 9:09 am

They have one A330 now that they keep busy on the Paris route, but when are they getting their 2nd A330?
 
bravotango75
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Re: Air Senegal to launch flights from Dakar to Washington-Dulles

Tue Sep 24, 2019 10:31 am

Just another 'vanity' route, frankly they should be serving BOS.
 
smallmj
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Re: Air Senegal to launch flights from Dakar to Washington-Dulles

Tue Sep 24, 2019 12:20 pm

bravotango75 wrote:
Just another 'vanity' route, frankly they should be serving BOS.


Is there a sizeable Senegalese community in BOS?
 
FSDan
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Re: Air Senegal to launch flights from Dakar to Washington-Dulles

Tue Sep 24, 2019 5:45 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
Air Senegal has the problem that it's competing against a leaner operation from DL who flies DSS-JFK on a narrow-body plane (B752 with Delta One). That plane, on a sub-daily route, is easier to fill than an A339.


DL actually has been flying JFK-DSS on a 763 this summer, albeit only 2x weekly. This flight operates on the days when the 5x weekly JFK-ACC flight doesn't operate.
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MoonC
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Re: Air Senegal to launch flights from Dakar to Washington-Dulles

Tue Sep 24, 2019 7:28 pm

AF022 wrote:
They have one A330 now that they keep busy on the Paris route, but when are they getting their 2nd A330?


24th of next month.

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