I have some credible sources indicating an announcement of IAH-DEL service from AI at the "Howdy Modi" event tomorrow. President Trump and Indian PM Modi are expected at the event tomorrow. Will wait for tomorrow's event to see if an announcement will be officially be made. It's been a while a long haul has been announced at IAH and being in * alliance might make this route work. Any thoughts.....

The block time and distance of this flight is longer than DEL-SFO so I don’t know how (if this turns out to be true) that AI is going to operate it with a full payload.

DEL-IAH is 17:15 block and 13,500km whilst DEL-SFO is 12,400km and 16:00 block and that flight is on the very edge of AI’s B77L capabilities.

Out of curiosity, why is this flight IAH-DEL, and not DEL-IAH? (since AI is Indian after all)
I have seen this with more announcements/rumors for flights.

Doubt it personally. Would love to be wrong

Wouldn't doubt this at all. Of course would be mostly for political reasons. If AI really wanted to serve the Texas-India market, wouldn't they start DFW instead?

Reminds me of the DAM-CCS route.

behramjee wrote:

The block time and distance of this flight is longer than DEL-SFO so I don’t know how (if this turns out to be true) that AI is going to operate it with a full payload.

DEL-IAH is 17:15 block and 13,500km whilst DEL-SFO is 12,400km and 16:00 block and that flight is on the very edge of AI’s B77L capabilities.

DOH-AKL is further than DEL-IAH and Qatar Airways operates with a Boeing 777-200LR of 259 passengers and the B77L of AI are 235 passengers of course who can make the route

9w748capt wrote:

Wouldn't doubt this at all. Of course would be mostly for political reasons. If AI really wanted to serve the Texas-India market, wouldn't they start DFW instead?

Reminds me of the DAM-CCS route.

I'm not sure why they would start DFW with no *A feed and (I believe) less demand to DEL. The Indian population there is big, but I'd imagine most traffic to and from India is VFR.

Interesting route if it happens. I won't be holding my breath though.

RainerBoeing777 wrote:

behramjee wrote:

The block time and distance of this flight is longer than DEL-SFO so I don’t know how (if this turns out to be true) that AI is going to operate it with a full payload.

DEL-IAH is 17:15 block and 13,500km whilst DEL-SFO is 12,400km and 16:00 block and that flight is on the very edge of AI’s B77L capabilities.

DOH-AKL is further than DEL-IAH and Qatar Airways operates with a Boeing 777-200LR of 259 passengers and the B77L of AI are 235 passengers of course who can make the route

AI has just 3 77Ls, which are caught up in a perennial DEL-SFO-DEL and DEL-BOM-DEL run. Even if you were to chop off the BOM operation, it's not enough bandwidth to launch DEL-IAH at a desirable frequency you would think.

RainerBoeing777 wrote:

behramjee wrote:

The block time and distance of this flight is longer than DEL-SFO so I don’t know how (if this turns out to be true) that AI is going to operate it with a full payload.

DEL-IAH is 17:15 block and 13,500km whilst DEL-SFO is 12,400km and 16:00 block and that flight is on the very edge of AI’s B77L capabilities.

DOH-AKL is further than DEL-IAH and Qatar Airways operates with a Boeing 777-200LR of 259 passengers and the B77L of AI are 235 passengers of course who can make the route

You seem to be forgetting QR's AKL has a 1 piece baggage policy whilst AI for USA has a 2 piece allowance.

QR to AKL 259 pax - 259 bags
AI to IAH 235 pax - 470 bags

The extra 211 bags at 23KG means an extra 4853kg (nearly 5 tons) to uplift which makes a big difference to the operational payload capabilities.

It is best that AI operates to IAH 3wk B788 via a Star* hub in EU that they already serve to generate additional feeder traffic / incremental revenue or via a EU city which they already serve that presently does not have a nonstop link to IAH.

behramjee wrote:

It is best that AI operates to IAH 3wk B788 via a Star* hub in EU that they already serve to generate additional feeder traffic / incremental revenue or via a EU city which they already serve that presently does not have a nonstop link to IAH.

I’m sure air India has a plan if this route in fact comes to life

behramjee wrote:

RainerBoeing777 wrote:

behramjee wrote:

It is best that AI operates to IAH 3wk B788 via a Star* hub in EU that they already serve to generate additional feeder traffic / incremental revenue or via a EU city which they already serve that presently does not have a nonstop link to IAH.

I suppose they could operate it IAH-LIS onward, that would be interesting, or IAH-CPH or ARN or IAH-BRU. Might be on to something ... maybe.

YoungDon wrote:

9w748capt wrote:

Wouldn't doubt this at all. Of course would be mostly for political reasons. If AI really wanted to serve the Texas-India market, wouldn't they start DFW instead?

Reminds me of the DAM-CCS route.

I'm not sure why they would start DFW with no *A feed and (I believe) less demand to DEL. The Indian population there is big, but I'd imagine most traffic to and from India is VFR.

Interesting route if it happens. I won't be holding my breath though.

*A feed makes only a little sense. As UA will preferentially feed their own flights (this is not a JV) or LH at FRA.

QR seems to have poor load factors at IAH. While a growing US city, I don't see the money to justify this route. ULH requires premium traffic. From New York, San Francisco, and Lis Angeles, I see potential. Some one needs to walk me through Houston to India.

Lightsaber

UA doesn't have the best history of cooperation in terms of fares with many of their STAR partners at IAH ... the alliance seems pointless at almost every turn.

blr380 wrote:

I have some credible sources indicating an announcement of IAH-DEL service from AI at the "Howdy Modi" event tomorrow. President Trump and Indian PM Modi are expected at the event tomorrow. Will wait for tomorrow's event to see if an announcement will be officially be made. It's been a while a long haul has been announced at IAH and being in * alliance might make this route work. Any thoughts.....

Political route. payback for filling a 50,000 seat stadium of PM supporters and fans. I am not complaining since without politics there is a “jeero” chance of the route (India to IAH) materializing. This was well played by the IAH lobbying groups. If other cities want direct service, they need just as good lobbying tactics. The new baseline is filling a 50K stadium

blr380 wrote:

I have some credible sources indicating an announcement of IAH-DEL service from AI at the "Howdy Modi" event tomorrow. President Trump and Indian PM Modi are expected at the event tomorrow. Will wait for tomorrow's event to see if an announcement will be officially be made. It's been a while a long haul has been announced at IAH and being in * alliance might make this route work. Any thoughts.....

My gut tells me this is 100% likely to happen. [You may recall that a couple of years ago, the Indian PM made an announcement that there would be an Air India San Francisco to India flight......and it did happen......and it is wildly successful.] Maybe the PM has a gut feeling for these kinds of things [i.e., what would work and what wouldn't]. Plus, he is a master of politics and know how this will be played both in the Indian community in the U.S., and back home in India. Further, the AI boss, Mr Ashwin Lohani, is pretty good at politics as well so I wouldn't be surprised it was him who fed the idea to the PM.

The only question now is the routing, and aircraft type, and frequency:

As far as routing, here are my guesses:

a) Direct DEL - IAH (zero competitors, United Airlines feed at its IAH hub; UA likely won't be proactive, it is just that AI will use the UA routes in the USA).

b) DEL - FRA - IAH (saves fuel, UA European hub; maybe Lufthansa will chip in some feed)

c) DEL - AUH -IAH (does the DEL to IAH routing cross close to the UAE)? If yes, AI could get fifth freedom flights at AUH (and additional feed from all AUH to India flights). I think when Jet struck a partnership with Etihad the India- Abu Dhabi bilateral provided for the 5th freedom. I am NOT100% sure of this and if anyone knows one way or the other, please let us know. AUH - IAH will also get premium oil and business traffic.

IAH is basically a backtrack for everywhere in the US except cities in the very south of Texas. I point this out because many people keep talking about feed from UA, I assume AI as already serving most feed via their flights to UA hubs at SFO, ORD, and EWR. IAH being the longest of those flights would need a very healthy premium O&D percentage to work. Does that exist? Would love to hear people’s input on the matter.

‘902

If Air India ever gets any 787-9, they have many 787-8, then Houston could be viable. The logic for AI in Houston is a challenge, why would they fly there ? Because its a Star Alliance Hub or interest in Oil ? Since India is not a large oil producing country and there are plenty of Flights from Doha and Dubai to IAH their reasons for flying to IAH seem far fetched.

TWA902fly wrote:

IAH is basically a backtrack for everywhere in the US except cities in the very south of Texas. I point this out because many people keep talking about feed from UA.

‘902

Thanks for important factoid. Air India must have figured a way out despite this. Would a 3x weekly minimize the losses yet serve a NOW prestigious route? How many aircraft would AI need to sustain a 3X weekly? Will 3 777LRs suffice? If so, AI has those aircraft, anyway, and it could be used for a non-stop flight. Problem solved and everyone would be happy.

jfk777 wrote:

If Air India ever gets any 787-9, they have many 787-8, then Houston could be viable. The logic for AI in Houston is a challenge, why would they fly there ? Because its a Star Alliance Hub or interest in Oil ? Since India is not a large oil producing country and there are plenty of Flights from Doha and Dubai to IAH their reasons for flying to IAH seem far fetched.

Ever heard of a political promise? Well, presumably one will be made tomorrow and then a solution would be found to make it work, no matter what. I think Air India and the Government of India have already figured it out. Note that India has sent equipment to orbit the moon and Mars. A flight to IAH would be nothing in comparison.

lightsaber wrote:

Some one needs to walk me through Houston to India.

Me, too.

TWA902fly wrote:

IAH is basically a backtrack for everywhere in the US except cities in the very south of Texas.

If AI wants UA feed it gets it at Chicago, which is ~900 statute miles closer to Delhi and reliably cooler and dryer.

lightsaber wrote:

YoungDon wrote:

9w748capt wrote:

Wouldn't doubt this at all. Of course would be mostly for political reasons. If AI really wanted to serve the Texas-India market, wouldn't they start DFW instead?

Reminds me of the DAM-CCS route.

I'm not sure why they would start DFW with no *A feed and (I believe) less demand to DEL. The Indian population there is big, but I'd imagine most traffic to and from India is VFR.

Interesting route if it happens. I won't be holding my breath though.

*A feed makes only a little sense. As UA will preferentially feed their own flights (this is not a JV) or LH at FRA.

QR seems to have poor load factors at IAH. While a growing US city, I don't see the money to justify this route. ULH requires premium traffic. From New York, San Francisco, and Lis Angeles, I see potential. Some one needs to walk me through Houston to India.

Lightsaber

There’s no potential in LAX-India. NYC and SFO yes, LAX no.

As far as IAH goes, there’s more potential than LAX but not enough to make it viable.

IAH definitely has the catchment area. Besides a very strong diaspora, Houston is very rich in energy industry. Success surely will depend on IAH-DEL offering improvement in travel time's. (From what I understand, the Howdy Modi event in Houston has sold out.)

People have talked about other airlines, let me perhaps state their disadvantages:
QR - with their embargo, it is adding several hrs of travel time both to Doha and most Indian cities
EK - High fares in absence of QR, EY; unable to grow seats on DXB - India routes
LH, BA, KLM, AF - Limited cities on India side

AI might not be the best positioned carrier to meet the 'unmet needs'; however, if they have a right aircraft, it probably has a good shot of success.

A successful launch of route like this might make some suitors for privatization come-out of woodwork as well.

Spiderguy252 wrote:

RainerBoeing777 wrote:

behramjee wrote:

The block time and distance of this flight is longer than DEL-SFO so I don’t know how (if this turns out to be true) that AI is going to operate it with a full payload.

DEL-IAH is 17:15 block and 13,500km whilst DEL-SFO is 12,400km and 16:00 block and that flight is on the very edge of AI’s B77L capabilities.

DOH-AKL is further than DEL-IAH and Qatar Airways operates with a Boeing 777-200LR of 259 passengers and the B77L of AI are 235 passengers of course who can make the route

AI has just 3 77Ls, which are caught up in a perennial DEL-SFO-DEL and DEL-BOM-DEL run. Even if you were to chop off the BOM operation, it's not enough bandwidth to launch DEL-IAH at a desirable frequency you would think.

AI also uses the 77W on the DEL-SFO,that are operating both flights today ( Sept 21st). Tomorrow Sunday the 22nd the 77L and the 77W are being used.

lightsaber wrote:

YoungDon wrote:

9w748capt wrote:

Wouldn't doubt this at all. Of course would be mostly for political reasons. If AI really wanted to serve the Texas-India market, wouldn't they start DFW instead?

Reminds me of the DAM-CCS route.

I'm not sure why they would start DFW with no *A feed and (I believe) less demand to DEL. The Indian population there is big, but I'd imagine most traffic to and from India is VFR.

Interesting route if it happens. I won't be holding my breath though.

*A feed makes only a little sense. As UA will preferentially feed their own flights (this is not a JV) or LH at FRA.

QR seems to have poor load factors at IAH. While a growing US city, I don't see the money to justify this route. ULH requires premium traffic. From New York, San Francisco, and Lis Angeles, I see potential. Some one needs to walk me through Houston to India.

Lightsaber

BOM has a good sized oil industry, so theres the front cabin. IAH-DEL is VFR heavy and has a ton of 1 stop options on foreign flag carriers from IAH as well as UA via EWR, and soon, SFO.

If UA starts any kind of relationship with AI than just base Star Alliance obligations, I can see IAH-BOM eventually.

TWA772LR wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

YoungDon wrote:

I'm not sure why they would start DFW with no *A feed and (I believe) less demand to DEL. The Indian population there is big, but I'd imagine most traffic to and from India is VFR.

Interesting route if it happens. I won't be holding my breath though.

*A feed makes only a little sense. As UA will preferentially feed their own flights (this is not a JV) or LH at FRA.

QR seems to have poor load factors at IAH. While a growing US city, I don't see the money to justify this route. ULH requires premium traffic. From New York, San Francisco, and Lis Angeles, I see potential. Some one needs to walk me through Houston to India.

Lightsaber

BOM has a good sized oil industry, so theres the front cabin. IAH-DEL is VFR heavy and has a ton of 1 stop options on foreign flag carriers from IAH as well as UA via EWR, and soon, SFO.

If UA starts any kind of relationship with AI than just base Star Alliance obligations, I can see IAH-BOM eventually.

With UA competing to India, I doubt AI will see more than base *A trade from UA.

I'd like to see numbers on travel. Los Angeles is an import and software Management center. Not to mention Hollywood to Bollywood. I would be shocked if Houston has more business with Mumbai, but I'm willing to believe numbers.

Lightsaber

910A wrote:

Spiderguy252 wrote:

RainerBoeing777 wrote:

DOH-AKL is further than DEL-IAH and Qatar Airways operates with a Boeing 777-200LR of 259 passengers and the B77L of AI are 235 passengers of course who can make the route

AI has just 3 77Ls, which are caught up in a perennial DEL-SFO-DEL and DEL-BOM-DEL run. Even if you were to chop off the BOM operation, it's not enough bandwidth to launch DEL-IAH at a desirable frequency you would think.

AI also uses the 77W on the DEL-SFO,that are operating both flights today ( Sept 21st). Tomorrow Sunday the 22nd the 77L and the 77W are being used.

I understand but they could always pull out the 77L from the SFO route and substitute it with the 787 (of which they have many), and then use the 77L exclusively for IAH. It also would make sense that their longest route (DEL to IAH), if non stop, would have a 77L with 9 seats in economy per row as opposed to 10 abreast for all other carriers.

The 787 on the other hand was designed for only 8 seats per row but almost all airlines, including Air India, have 9 across which would make it a cramped aircraft for a flight that exceeds 17 hours.

YoungDon wrote:

9w748capt wrote:

Wouldn't doubt this at all. Of course would be mostly for political reasons. If AI really wanted to serve the Texas-India market, wouldn't they start DFW instead?

Reminds me of the DAM-CCS route.

I'm not sure why they would start DFW with no *A feed and (I believe) less demand to DEL. The Indian population there is big, but I'd imagine most traffic to and from India is VFR.

Interesting route if it happens. I won't be holding my breath though.

All of the oilfield service companies and EPCs have major back offices in India. Between the VFR and business traffic, I have no doubt they could fill a plane between Houston and Delhi. I question whether they could make the fares work against QR/EK competition and dedicate aircraft that carry an economical payload 7,200 nm.

Spiderguy252 wrote:

AI has just 3 77Ls, which are caught up in a perennial DEL-SFO-DEL and DEL-BOM-DEL run. Even if you were to chop off the BOM operation, it's not enough bandwidth to launch DEL-IAH at a desirable frequency you would think.

IIRC AI has slack in their 77W fleet. So what if they up-gauge SFO and IAD to all 77W operation? But the question of payload still remains esp., around the concerns raised by @behramjee:

behramjee wrote:

QR to AKL 259 pax - 259 bags
AI to IAH 235 pax - 470 bags

The extra 211 bags at 23KG means an extra 4853kg (nearly 5 tons) to uplift which makes a big difference to the operational payload capabilities.

edealinfo wrote:

b) DEL - FRA - IAH (saves fuel, UA European hub; maybe Lufthansa will chip in some feed)

IAH is a A380 destination for LH + a significant UA-LH JV / code share route. I don't see them providing much feed.

edealinfo wrote:

c) DEL - AUH - IAH (does the DEL to IAH routing cross close to the UAE)? If yes, AI could get fifth freedom flights at AUH (and additional feed from all AUH to India flights). I think when Jet struck a partnership with Etihad the India- Abu Dhabi bilateral provided for the 5th freedom. I am NOT100% sure of this and if anyone knows one way or the other, please let us know. AUH - IAH will also get premium oil and business traffic.

I am not clear on the 5th freedom thing but even if it is the case won't the AUH-India-AUH portion constitute more seats? Is there space in the BASA for that?

Now assume that the provision doesn't exist. The question is will AUH allow the 5th freedom flight while seat additions are being denied to UAE? I highly doubt this is a viable / plausible option. Just my

I don't see this happening, of course this is AI so any dumb move could happen. IAH and Texas yes has lot's of Indians, outside of VFR traffic it's medical tech and research etc is big, yes there is oil, but India does not do much business with the USA in this field outside of tech support and some call center. IAH geographical location means it's not an ideal location to transfer, and the catchment area is smaller in this regard. It's a long flight and between the O+D and smaller then needed business ties, it does not make sense. There are tons of flights to EWR, JFK, SFO, ORD with easy one transfers onto DEL or other spots in India. This flight would be a loser non-stop and fifth-freedom? who knows but I doubt it. I don't see many folks willingly flying there family on AI to Rome for a vacation.

babastud wrote:

I don't see this happening, of course this is AI so any dumb move could happen. IAH and Texas yes has lot's of Indians, outside of VFR traffic it's medical tech and research etc is big, yes there is oil, but India does not do much business with the USA in this field outside of tech support and some call center. IAH geographical location means it's not an ideal location to transfer, and the catchment area is smaller in this regard. It's a long flight and between the O+D and smaller then needed business ties, it does not make sense. There are tons of flights to EWR, JFK, SFO, ORD with easy one transfers onto DEL or other spots in India. This flight would be a loser non-stop and fifth-freedom? who knows but I doubt it. I don't see many folks willingly flying there family on AI to Rome for a vacation.

The more I think about it, I tend to lean toward this view. I think the traffic is there for maybe 3x a week but I definitely question the yield for such a long flight. The only thing you really get out of IAH that you can't out of ORD or one of AI's coastal flights is perhaps more feed from the Caribbean and South America and Texas itself. But is there really THAT much traffic from places like that especially considering the issues with international transfers in the US? Traffic you can get a decent fare for? I really don't think so.

It would be cool to see though. Also would be interesting to see the timings given the lack of gate space in terminal D at certain times of day.

lightsaber wrote:

TWA772LR wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

*A feed makes only a little sense. As UA will preferentially feed their own flights (this is not a JV) or LH at FRA.

QR seems to have poor load factors at IAH. While a growing US city, I don't see the money to justify this route. ULH requires premium traffic. From New York, San Francisco, and Lis Angeles, I see potential. Some one needs to walk me through Houston to India.

Lightsaber

BOM has a good sized oil industry, so theres the front cabin. IAH-DEL is VFR heavy and has a ton of 1 stop options on foreign flag carriers from IAH as well as UA via EWR, and soon, SFO.

If UA starts any kind of relationship with AI than just base Star Alliance obligations, I can see IAH-BOM eventually.

With UA competing to India, I doubt AI will see more than base *A trade from UA.

I'd like to see numbers on travel. Los Angeles is an import and software Management center. Not to mention Hollywood to Bollywood. I would be shocked if Houston has more business with Mumbai, but I'm willing to believe numbers.

Lightsaber

Please find below the past 12 months flown round trip pax data comparing IAH and DFW to the main Indian cities:

IAH vs DFW

BOM 67,000 vs 48,000
DEL 46,000 vs 41,000
MAA 22,000 vs 40,000
BLR 24,000 vs 39,000
HYD 30,000 vs 64,000
COK 17,000 vs 15,000
AMD 11,000 vs 8,000

Total is IAH 217,000 vs DFW 255,000...DFW wins largely due to the higher demand from Southern India (HYD BLR MAA) to the city !

Lastly, just for everyone's clarification, Etihad does not fly to Houston (IAH). In USA, EY flies to LAX ORD IAD and JFK only.

behramjee wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

TWA772LR wrote:

BOM has a good sized oil industry, so theres the front cabin. IAH-DEL is VFR heavy and has a ton of 1 stop options on foreign flag carriers from IAH as well as UA via EWR, and soon, SFO.

If UA starts any kind of relationship with AI than just base Star Alliance obligations, I can see IAH-BOM eventually.

With UA competing to India, I doubt AI will see more than base *A trade from UA.

I'd like to see numbers on travel. Los Angeles is an import and software Management center. Not to mention Hollywood to Bollywood. I would be shocked if Houston has more business with Mumbai, but I'm willing to believe numbers.

Lightsaber

Please find below the past 12 months flown round trip pax data comparing IAH and DFW to the main Indian cities:

IAH vs DFW

BOM 67,000 vs 48,000
DEL 46,000 vs 41,000
MAA 22,000 vs 40,000
BLR 24,000 vs 39,000
HYD 30,000 vs 64,000
COK 17,000 vs 15,000
AMD 11,000 vs 8,000

Total is IAH 217,000 vs DFW 255,000...DFW wins largely due to the higher demand from Southern India (HYD BLR MAA) to the city !

Lastly, just for everyone's clarification, Etihad does not fly to Houston (IAH). In USA, EY flies to LAX ORD IAD and JFK only.

Thanks for the numbers. I knew DFW had more India traffic than IAH. DFW is also ~200nm close to DEL, saving a little time on an ultra long flight. Air India has discussed DFW in the past. I wonder if they'd ever consider a tag on flight, or just flying to DFW which is closer an relying on UA's numerous daily IAH-DFW flights to feed IAH traffic there.

Either way, they are going to struggle against EK and QR which have loyal followings in both DFW and IAH to the subcontinent.

I would not be surprised, the Indian prime minister is going to Houston.

My understanding is that the prime minister is going to rally organised by the Indian community in Houston. I am guessing Air India (maybe influenced by the Indian government) is deciding to fly there.

Seems to be at the limits of the 77L's capabilities...and they only have 3 frames at present, all about 10 years old...can it work on a sustained, winter+summer basis?...

But I know there is a large population of expatriate and Indian-origin US nationals in Texas...this could be a very profitable route if the pricing is right...and cut significantly into EK and QR load factors out of IAH and DFW...after all, EK's initial spectacular expansion was due in large part to the Non-Resident Indians market...


Faro

Faro wrote:

Seems to be at the limits of the 77L's capabilities...and they only have 3 frames at present, all about 10 years old...can it work on a sustained, winter+summer basis?...

Faro

1. Do the 777LRs offer more range than the 787-800s? By how much? An additional hour of flying?

2. Can 3 777LRs support a 3X or 4X weekly operation exclusively for IAH - DEL and DEL- IAH?

VTORD wrote:

edealinfo wrote:

b) DEL - FRA - IAH (saves fuel, UA European hub; maybe Lufthansa will chip in some feed)

IAH is a A380 destination for LH + a significant UA-LH JV / code share route. I don't see them providing much feed.

edealinfo wrote:

c) DEL - AUH - IAH (does the DEL to IAH routing cross close to the UAE)? If yes, AI could get fifth freedom flights at AUH (and additional feed from all AUH to India flights). I think when Jet struck a partnership with Etihad the India- Abu Dhabi bilateral provided for the 5th freedom. I am NOT100% sure of this and if anyone knows one way or the other, please let us know. AUH - IAH will also get premium oil and business traffic.

I am not clear on the 5th freedom thing but even if it is the case won't the AUH-India-AUH portion constitute more seats? Is there space in the BASA for that?

Now assume that the provision doesn't exist. The question is will AUH allow the 5th freedom flight while seat additions are being denied to UAE? I highly doubt this is a viable / plausible option. Just my

I am pretty sure that when India expanded rights to AUH, it allowed one to upguage to a larger aircraft at AUH as the plan was for Jet Airways to fly multiple narrow bodies from various parts in India to AUH, and then feed those passengers into a wide body Jet Airways aircraft from AUH to USA. That, I understand, was in the bilateral and I am assuming (only) that it meant that India also negotiated for 5th freedom on that routing. However, note that Jet, didn't use this option in the bilateral and instead chose Brussels, and subsequently, AMS/CDG as its hub.

There is plenty of non utilized bilateral capacity between AUH and India to make IAH-AUH-India technically possible. Whether it is the best choice is a different matter.

I think, given the Howdy event, India's PM would probably want to make a newsworthy announcement which is why I think, it would most likely be a non-stop flight. Politically, a 3X or 4X weekly "non-stop" flight would have far more of a punch than a 7X one-stop option since there already are a gazillion of one-stop options from IAH to India. Let's see if politics Trumps! We should know in less than 15 hours.

mfe777 wrote:

behramjee wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

With UA competing to India, I doubt AI will see more than base *A trade from UA.

I'd like to see numbers on travel. Los Angeles is an import and software Management center. Not to mention Hollywood to Bollywood. I would be shocked if Houston has more business with Mumbai, but I'm willing to believe numbers.

Lightsaber

Please find below the past 12 months flown round trip pax data comparing IAH and DFW to the main Indian cities:

IAH vs DFW

BOM 67,000 vs 48,000
DEL 46,000 vs 41,000
MAA 22,000 vs 40,000
BLR 24,000 vs 39,000
HYD 30,000 vs 64,000
COK 17,000 vs 15,000
AMD 11,000 vs 8,000

Total is IAH 217,000 vs DFW 255,000...DFW wins largely due to the higher demand from Southern India (HYD BLR MAA) to the city !

Lastly, just for everyone's clarification, Etihad does not fly to Houston (IAH). In USA, EY flies to LAX ORD IAD and JFK only.

Thanks for the numbers. I knew DFW had more India traffic than IAH. DFW is also ~200nm close to DEL, saving a little time on an ultra long flight. Air India has discussed DFW in the past. I wonder if they'd ever consider a tag on flight, or just flying to DFW which is closer an relying on UA's numerous daily IAH-DFW flights to feed IAH traffic there.

Either way, they are going to struggle against EK and QR which have loyal followings in both DFW and IAH to the subcontinent.

I live in Dallas. There is a large local Indian population, generally working in Telecom and the Banking/Financial IT sectors. But India is a big country, and distances between major cities are not short. So if AI is to fly from DEL or BOM to the states, maybe IAH is a better fit than DFW?? I agree that the UA/* Alliance connection won't be a big help, but I could see either work.

I don't know how EVA does with IAH-TPE, which is kind of a similar situation (although UA doesn't serve TPE); does anybody know how they're doing, and are they getting any UA feed?

Seriously, Houston....? What about here in Boston, better educated, more affluent...HARVARD...Boston College....Again, HOUSTON....?

edealinfo wrote:

jfk777 wrote:

If Air India ever gets any 787-9, they have many 787-8, then Houston could be viable. The logic for AI in Houston is a challenge, why would they fly there ? Because its a Star Alliance Hub or interest in Oil ? Since India is not a large oil producing country and there are plenty of Flights from Doha and Dubai to IAH their reasons for flying to IAH seem far fetched.

Ever heard of a political promise? Well, presumably one will be made tomorrow and then a solution would be found to make it work, no matter what. I think Air India and the Government of India have already figured it out. Note that India has sent equipment to orbit the moon and Mars. A flight to IAH would be nothing in comparison.

Love your comparison of putting a man on the moon vs. flying to Houston, what does one have to do with the other ? The Government of India has shown us they can fly to the moon but they have also shown they can't manage an airline, we have 70 years of record for that indisputable fact.

Air India is better served flying to United hubs in SFO, ORD, IAD and Newark. Air India should not try to cover the Americas like Emirates.

bravotango75 wrote:

Seriously, Houston....? What about here in Boston, better educated, more affluent...HARVARD...Boston College....Again, HOUSTON....?

I mean, Houston has a bigger regional GDP, a bigger Indian population, more business links with India than the Boston area. Not sure what Harvard or education levels have to do with anything. Houston is far more international than Boston is.

IAH-DEL is a marginal route in my mind, but it's far better than BOS-DEL. But, I get it, plenty of people aren't fans of Houston and that's ok.

YoungDon wrote:

bravotango75 wrote:

Seriously, Houston....? What about here in Boston, better educated, more affluent...HARVARD...Boston College....Again, HOUSTON....?

I mean, Houston has a bigger regional GDP, a bigger Indian population, more business links with India than the Boston area. Not sure what Harvard or education levels have to do with anything. Houston is far more international than Boston is.

IAH-DEL is a marginal route in my mind, but it's far better than BOS-DEL. But, I get it, plenty of people aren't fans of Houston and that's ok.

What's "ok" about a moronic comment comparing the (perceived) relative education levels of Bostonians to Houstonians (as if the fact that "HARVARD" is in Cambridge has anything to do with traffic to DEL), from someone who probably has never even been to Houston? [Note: ex-Bostonian here now living in Houston]

jfk777 wrote:

edealinfo wrote:

jfk777 wrote:

Air India is better served flying to United hubs in SFO, ORD, IAD and Newark.

They already do. Second, who told you this route has anything to do with economics? You do know that the IAH - DEL route announcement would be at a political event where 50,000 Houston-based Indian Americans are to felicitate the Indian Prime Minister. You don't need to fly to the moon to figure this out!

behramjee wrote:

RainerBoeing777 wrote:

behramjee wrote:

The block time and distance of this flight is longer than DEL-SFO so I don’t know how (if this turns out to be true) that AI is going to operate it with a full payload.

DEL-IAH is 17:15 block and 13,500km whilst DEL-SFO is 12,400km and 16:00 block and that flight is on the very edge of AI’s B77L capabilities.

DOH-AKL is further than DEL-IAH and Qatar Airways operates with a Boeing 777-200LR of 259 passengers and the B77L of AI are 235 passengers of course who can make the route

You seem to be forgetting QR's AKL has a 1 piece baggage policy whilst AI for USA has a 2 piece allowance.

QR to AKL 259 pax - 259 bags
AI to IAH 235 pax - 470 bags

The extra 211 bags at 23KG means an extra 4853kg (nearly 5 tons) to uplift which makes a big difference to the operational payload capabilities.

It is best that AI operates to IAH 3wk B788 via a Star* hub in EU that they already serve to generate additional feeder traffic / incremental revenue or via a EU city which they already serve that presently does not have a nonstop link to IAH.

Little correction to your calculation. QR baggage allowance is 2X23Kg for the North and South American routes. The AKL-DOH flight is 7848nm vs 7276nm of DEL-IAH. So that's more than an hour of flight, not to mention AKL-DOH will face strong headwinds where as DEL-IAH is mostly polar route thus even longer flight time for AKL-DOH. As for equipment, DEL-SFO are well within 77W full pax and bags range, so the 77Ls can be freed up.

Anyway, on topic, even I don't see much chance of profit in this route. Perhaps AI should lease out some of their 77Ws and lease some 789s to lower the costs on the North American routes.

Seems this is more of a publicity event to share the $2.5B LNG deal between two companies. (But hoping the flight announcement comes!)

I am looking to the live stream of the Howdy event and just from the vibe you can get the feeling that the PM will want to make a "major announcement" to please the crowd, and what better way than to announce a non-stop IAD - DEL flight. And, profitability of the flight be damned! I mean, that's what a Government-owned company like Air India is for! And, why not get in a political flight just before the Air India sell off (i.e., privatization). Perfectly Timed! Perfect, Politically! Perfect Lobbying/Advocacy by Indian-American Lobbying Groups! [I am not criticizing even though it comes out as such. I am admiring the brilliance of the strategy of the making of such a flight when under normal commercial considerations, it would have as much of a chance of happening as pigs flying).

I’m still going with no AI announcement will take place.

behramjee wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

TWA772LR wrote:

BOM has a good sized oil industry, so theres the front cabin. IAH-DEL is VFR heavy and has a ton of 1 stop options on foreign flag carriers from IAH as well as UA via EWR, and soon, SFO.

If UA starts any kind of relationship with AI than just base Star Alliance obligations, I can see IAH-BOM eventually.

With UA competing to India, I doubt AI will see more than base *A trade from UA.

I'd like to see numbers on travel. Los Angeles is an import and software Management center. Not to mention Hollywood to Bollywood. I would be shocked if Houston has more business with Mumbai, but I'm willing to believe numbers.

Lightsaber

Please find below the past 12 months flown round trip pax data comparing IAH and DFW to the main Indian cities:

IAH vs DFW

BOM 67,000 vs 48,000
DEL 46,000 vs 41,000
MAA 22,000 vs 40,000
BLR 24,000 vs 39,000
HYD 30,000 vs 64,000
COK 17,000 vs 15,000
AMD 11,000 vs 8,000

Total is IAH 217,000 vs DFW 255,000...DFW wins largely due to the higher demand from Southern India (HYD BLR MAA) to the city !

Lastly, just for everyone's clarification, Etihad does not fly to Houston (IAH). In USA, EY flies to LAX ORD IAD and JFK only.

Very interesting but not surprising that HYD is DFWs largest Indian market. The Dallas area is home to the largest Telugu speaking population in the America’s having recently passed NYC. Also, the Indian population is much bigger and more visible in Dallas than Houston.

Either way I don’t see a flight from Texas to India being a money maker. But since profit does matter to AI, who knows?

LAXdude1023 wrote:

I’m still going with no AI announcement will take place.

If that happens I would take off my cowboy hat and salute the PM for placing national interests over popular-ism.

Either way, though, he wins. If the flight it on, he scores for creating an environment to make it happen. If he doesn't announce it, he scores even more points for standing by sound economic principles. Which will ultimately, triumph? I read that most Indian TV news channels are covering the Howdy event - live. Those watching in India don't care if the flight is on or not but do care how the audience reacts to the PM!

behramjee wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

TWA772LR wrote:

BOM has a good sized oil industry, so theres the front cabin. IAH-DEL is VFR heavy and has a ton of 1 stop options on foreign flag carriers from IAH as well as UA via EWR, and soon, SFO.

If UA starts any kind of relationship with AI than just base Star Alliance obligations, I can see IAH-BOM eventually.

With UA competing to India, I doubt AI will see more than base *A trade from UA.

I'd like to see numbers on travel. Los Angeles is an import and software Management center. Not to mention Hollywood to Bollywood. I would be shocked if Houston has more business with Mumbai, but I'm willing to believe numbers.

Lightsaber

Please find below the past 12 months flown round trip pax data comparing IAH and DFW to the main Indian cities:

IAH vs DFW

BOM 67,000 vs 48,000
DEL 46,000 vs 41,000
MAA 22,000 vs 40,000
BLR 24,000 vs 39,000
HYD 30,000 vs 64,000
COK 17,000 vs 15,000
AMD 11,000 vs 8,000

Total is IAH 217,000 vs DFW 255,000...DFW wins largely due to the higher demand from Southern India (HYD BLR MAA) to the city !

Lastly, just for everyone's clarification, Etihad does not fly to Houston (IAH). In USA, EY flies to LAX ORD IAD and JFK only.

AI will only look at those top two lines. Caring about South India except when they get isolated bouts of political pressure is something they never do.

edealinfo wrote:

LAXdude1023 wrote:

I’m still going with no AI announcement will take place.

If that happens I would take off my cowboy hat and salute the PM for placing national interests over popular-ism.

Either way, though, he wins. If the flight it on, he scores for creating an environment to make it happen. If he doesn't announce it, he scores even more points for standing by sound economic principles. Which will ultimately, triumph? I read that most Indian TV news channels are covering the Howdy event - live. Those watching in India don't care if the flight is on or not but do care how the audience reacts to the PM!

I would be more than thrilled to be wrong. I just don’t think I am.