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HaulSudson
Posts: 101
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Re: Lufthansa and United in negotiations to acquire TAP from David Neeleman

Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:03 am

"Miles no more" is indeed more appropriate.
 
Kikko19
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Re: Lufthansa and United in negotiations to acquire TAP from David Neeleman

Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:09 am

what could be the consequences? downsizing? closing the shop? the government of Portugal will sell their share too?
 
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lugie
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Re: Lufthansa and United in negotiations to acquire TAP from David Neeleman

Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:25 am

Do you think this might make jetBlue joining Star Alliance more likely? They connect quite a lot of passengers with TAP in Boston and JFK and especially now against the backdrop of Alaska joining oneworld this could make sense
Q400 E175 E190 CRJ7 CRJ9 CRJX MD88 A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A359 B733 B73G B738 B739 B748 B764 B772 B77W B788 B789
FRA STR HAM TXL MUC ZRH ACE BRU BLL DUB MAN ARN MAD OPO LIS FNC AMS PHL RDU LGA CLT EWR ORD ATL SFO MDW IAD YYZ SJO PTY
 
Scotron12
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Re: Lufthansa and United in negotiations to acquire TAP from David Neeleman

Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:25 am

Polot wrote:
Not too surprising. I have long suspected since the news of the friction between Portugal and Neeleman first broke that Portugal has desired pushing TAP closer to their Star partners and joining the Star TATL JV while Neeleman has resisted in favor of staying independent.

Noble, but as pointed out TAP still has their ever constant profitability issue.


Weren't IAG interested in TAP a while ago because of TAPs South American frequencies?

Maybe why IAG turned to Air Europa instead.
 
Pt56
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Re: Lufthansa and United in negotiations to acquire TAP from David Neeleman

Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:27 am

lugie wrote:
Do you think this might make jetBlue joining Star Alliance more likely? They connect quite a lot of passengers with TAP in Boston and JFK and especially now against the backdrop of Alaska joining oneworld this could make sense


Suspect the opposite is more probable. United + Luftansa, implies the special relation between jetBlue and TAP would be terminated.
 
x1234
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Re: Lufthansa and United in negotiations to acquire TAP from David Neeleman

Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:30 am

And TAP gives extra lift to the LH UA JV to South America as TAP currently only flies to the USA/Canada (SFO ORD BOS JFK EWR IAD MIA YYZ) and Brazil (GRU GIG regional Brazil). This is like BA with Iberia, putting flights to Latin America on a closer/more colonial hub. TAP with its low cost could start flights to EZE, MEX, CUN, BOG, LIM, etc.
 
CRJockey
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Re: Lufthansa and United in negotiations to acquire TAP from David Neeleman

Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:46 am

VSMUT wrote:
Lufthansa interference will inevitably mean service improvements like worse meals, more seats squeezed in, removal of wifi because those extra seats put it at the edge of the CG limit, higher prices, miles and more, possibly a low cost model and Eurowings integration and similar stuff we all love. What's not to love?


Millions and millions of losses year after year, rather than adapting to market conditions. What's not to love? ;-)
 
xiaotung
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Re: Lufthansa and United in negotiations to acquire TAP from David Neeleman

Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:48 am

lugie wrote:
Do you think this might make jetBlue joining Star Alliance more likely? They connect quite a lot of passengers with TAP in Boston and JFK and especially now against the backdrop of Alaska joining oneworld this could make sense


Actually this might push Azul to align closer to *A.
 
Cointrin330
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Re: Lufthansa and United in negotiations to acquire TAP from David Neeleman

Mon Feb 24, 2020 12:02 pm

Portugal is a beautiful country and well worth more than a quick stop on the way to another destination beyond but the idea that TAP could build a connector of sorts, at a congested airport, in a market that generates little evidence of a growing business market, is the root cause of the problem.
 
usflyer msp
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Re: Lufthansa and United in negotiations to acquire TAP from David Neeleman

Mon Feb 24, 2020 12:25 pm

x1234 wrote:
And TAP gives extra lift to the LH UA JV to South America as TAP currently only flies to the USA/Canada (SFO ORD BOS JFK EWR IAD MIA YYZ) and Brazil (GRU GIG regional Brazil). This is like BA with Iberia, putting flights to Latin America on a closer/more colonial hub. TAP with its low cost could start flights to EZE, MEX, CUN, BOG, LIM, etc.


Is TAP low-cost? Portugal has few connections to Spanish speaking South Americas, other than some diasporic links to Venezuela. Such an expansion would probably not end well.
 
RvA
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Re: Lufthansa and United in negotiations to acquire TAP from David Neeleman

Mon Feb 24, 2020 12:59 pm

Makes sense. LHG could do with a stronger South American presence and TAP is geographically in a superb spot and has good coverage already of the biggest market in SA and I can see them expanding to the Spanish speaking countries with the support of LHG helping to feed them. UAs interest in this is less obvious to me (LHG and USs JV doesn’t cover anything south of Panama I believe) but maybe with an eye on the future then.
 
Pyrex
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Re: Lufthansa and United in negotiations to acquire TAP from David Neeleman

Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:15 pm

Why on Earth would anybody voluntarily enter into a "partnership" with the Portuguese government? Do LH and UA really have that big of a desire to set a pile of money on fire?
Read this very carefully, I shall write this only once!
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Lufthansa and United in negotiations to acquire TAP from David Neeleman

Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:20 pm

x1234 wrote:
TAP with its low cost could start flights to EZE, MEX, CUN, BOG, LIM, etc.


To feed people from where, please? All but LIM are LH non-stop destinations from FRA today, as are GIG and GRU.
Last edited by MIflyer12 on Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Pt56
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Re: Lufthansa and United in negotiations to acquire TAP from David Neeleman

Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:21 pm

Pyrex wrote:
Why on Earth would anybody voluntarily enter into a "partnership" with the Portuguese government? Do LH and UA really have that big of a desire to set a pile of money on fire?


The current situation is "interesting" the Portuguese state controls most of the capital, but the revenue and management are assigned to the private consortium.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Lufthansa and United in negotiations to acquire TAP from David Neeleman

Mon Feb 24, 2020 2:41 pm

VSMUT wrote:
Lufthansa interference will inevitably mean service improvements like worse meals, more seats squeezed in, removal of wifi because those extra seats put it at the edge of the CG limit, higher prices, miles and more, possibly a low cost model and Eurowings integration and similar stuff we all love. What's not to love?

Maybe we'll see a new livery (get rid of anything not blue or white) and a new branding (Lisbon Airways?) and a trip through bankruptcy to wring concessions out of the workers then in a small number of years an admission it was all a bad idea and it all needs to be shut down so more people can fly via FRA or MUC.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
dfpinto
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Re: Lufthansa and United in negotiations to acquire TAP from David Neeleman

Mon Feb 24, 2020 2:57 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
x1234 wrote:
TAP with its low cost could start flights to EZE, MEX, CUN, BOG, LIM, etc.


To feed people from where, please? All but LIM are LH non-stop destinations from FRA today, as are GIG and GRU.


Imagine having to backtrack from (e.g) MAD to FRA to get in a flight to EZE. I'm guessing you would rather take Iberia or some other connection that doesn't waste so much time.

Additionally, TP has many other destinations in Brazil: BEL, REC, NAT, FOR, CNF, BSB and POA (I might be forgetting some). Similar scenario: Imagine travelling from MAD to NAT, what are your options? MAD-FRA-GRU-NAT seems quite stretched.

The deal makes sense, from a network perspective, but I don't think it'll happen because getting in bed with the Portuguese Goverment is not a good idea, as Mr. Neeleman unfortunately already found out.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Lufthansa and United in negotiations to acquire TAP from David Neeleman

Mon Feb 24, 2020 3:01 pm

Revelation wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
Lufthansa interference will inevitably mean service improvements like worse meals, more seats squeezed in, removal of wifi because those extra seats put it at the edge of the CG limit, higher prices, miles and more, possibly a low cost model and Eurowings integration and similar stuff we all love. What's not to love?

Maybe we'll see a new livery (get rid of anything not blue or white) and a new branding (Lisbon Airways?) and a trip through bankruptcy to wring concessions out of the workers then in a small number of years an admission it was all a bad idea and it all needs to be shut down so more people can fly via FRA or MUC.


But not before trying to turn it into Eurowings, giving them some A340-600s to operate for Eurowings and flip-flopping on those decisions a few times.
 
airzona11
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Re: Lufthansa and United in negotiations to acquire TAP from David Neeleman

Mon Feb 24, 2020 3:06 pm

dfpinto wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
x1234 wrote:
TAP with its low cost could start flights to EZE, MEX, CUN, BOG, LIM, etc.


To feed people from where, please? All but LIM are LH non-stop destinations from FRA today, as are GIG and GRU.


Imagine having to backtrack from (e.g) MAD to FRA to get in a flight to EZE. I'm guessing you would rather take Iberia or some other connection that doesn't waste so much time.

Additionally, TP has many other destinations in Brazil: BEL, REC, NAT, FOR, CNF, BSB and POA (I might be forgetting some). Similar scenario: Imagine travelling from MAD to NAT, what are your options? MAD-FRA-GRU-NAT seems quite stretched.

The deal makes sense, from a network perspective, but I don't think it'll happen because getting in bed with the Portuguese Goverment is not a good idea, as Mr. Neeleman unfortunately already found out.


Why focus on Madrid? Unless I am mistaken, Spain is not a large driver of traffic to Brazil.
 
NZ321
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Re: Lufthansa and United in negotiations to acquire TAP from David Neeleman

Mon Feb 24, 2020 3:07 pm

LH should not be allowed to acquire TAP and extend its leverage further in Europe IMHO, but equally IAG should not be able to pick up TAP either given their strong hold in the Iberian peninsular. We need TAP to stay in STAR or move to Skyteam. There have to be better options.
Plane mad!
 
NZ321
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Re: Lufthansa and United in negotiations to acquire TAP from David Neeleman

Mon Feb 24, 2020 3:11 pm

If LH picks up TAP then gone is a niche and good service carrier with a unique network and we face the same old second tier game that has dogged LH investment in OS and SN. Such a move is not good news for the customer or the overall health of diversity within the European network. We need action on this front if I may say so.
Plane mad!
 
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intotheair
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Re: Lufthansa and United in negotiations to acquire TAP from David Neeleman

Mon Feb 24, 2020 3:13 pm

lugie wrote:
Do you think this might make jetBlue joining Star Alliance more likely? They connect quite a lot of passengers with TAP in Boston and JFK and especially now against the backdrop of Alaska joining oneworld this could make sense


I doubt it. LH owned 19% of B6 at one time. They never got close at all to joining Star even then.
300 319 320 321 332 333 345 346 380 717 733 734 735 73G 738 739 744 752 753 762 763 772 77W 788 789 CR2 CR7 CR9 CRK Q400 E175 DC10 MD82 MD90
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airplanedriver6
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Re: Lufthansa and United in negotiations to acquire TAP from David Neeleman

Mon Feb 24, 2020 3:41 pm

xiaotung wrote:
Actually this might push Azul to align closer to *A.

IMHO, that's a foregone conclusion.

UA has publicly stated that they are working on finalizing a South American JV involving both Avianca and Azul. (FWIW, UA owns a majority share of Avianca but also has a minority stake in Azul.)
 
MaverickM11
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Re: Lufthansa and United in negotiations to acquire TAP from David Neeleman

Mon Feb 24, 2020 3:48 pm

What is the upside, especially for UA? It's like buying SN 2.0.
I don't take responsibility at all
 
airbazar
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Re: Lufthansa and United in negotiations to acquire TAP from David Neeleman

Mon Feb 24, 2020 4:07 pm

Pt56 wrote:
According to this article (Portuguese)...
What do you think? do you think this deal makes sense? Specially given that it is a minority position.

Makes perfect sense from LH/UA point of view but it will spell the end for TAP and likely a disaster for Portugal's economy as TAP is it's largest exporter and a huge contributor to the tourism industry which accounts for ~20% of GDP.
Why do I say this? TAP is a big contributor to declining yields across the Atlantic. That's bad for LH/UA who have much higher operating costs and therefore need higher yields. By eliminating TAP they eliminate a significant low cost competitor and because TAP is so cheap to buy, it's an easy thing to do.
With Delta/VS trying to eliminate DY and Lh/UA trying to eliminate TAP, pretty soon we'll be left with nothing but 3 main alliances across the Atlantic and back to the high fares of old.
 
runway23
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Re: Lufthansa and United in negotiations to acquire TAP from David Neeleman

Mon Feb 24, 2020 4:09 pm

MaverickM11 wrote:
What is the upside, especially for UA? It's like buying SN 2.0.


Remove an airline who under prices pretty much everyone on the transatlantic market.
 
ScottB
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Re: Lufthansa and United in negotiations to acquire TAP from David Neeleman

Mon Feb 24, 2020 4:21 pm

dfpinto wrote:
Imagine having to backtrack from (e.g) MAD to FRA to get in a flight to EZE. I'm guessing you would rather take Iberia or some other connection that doesn't waste so much time.


Airlines and alliances can't (profitably) be all things to all people. A high-value customer in Madrid is probably going to stick with non-stops on IB rather than connecting in FRA or LIS, either way. There's relatively little business traffic between Portugal and the non-Lusophone parts of South America so it makes little sense to go chasing after low-yielding connecting traffic unless you've got really low costs.
 
abrelosojos
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Re: TAP post 1H 2019 loss; government pushes Neeleman to sell stake

Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:28 pm

People forget that TP was unprofitable for the first 72 years of government control. With the huge capex in 2019, it still improved it's performance, showing the article is political spin. Give it a few years, and if they continue performing, TP will keep turning around.

Saludos,
Alex
Live, and let live.
 
Blerg
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Re: TAP post 1H 2019 loss; government pushes Neeleman to sell stake

Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:31 pm

So if this goes through, Iberia will be ruled by IAG, LH and Ryanair?
 
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Polot
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Re: TAP post 1H 2019 loss; government pushes Neeleman to sell stake

Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:53 pm

abrelosojos wrote:
People forget that TP was unprofitable for the first 72 years of government control. With the huge capex in 2019, it still improved it's performance, showing the article is political spin. Give it a few years, and if they continue performing, TP will keep turning around.

Saludos,
Alex

TAP hasn’t been improving its performance, that is the problem. It’s profitability has been all over the place the past couple of years, there has been no clear trend. And the past couple of years have been “good times” for airlines.
 
Lewton
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Re: TAP post 1H 2019 loss; government pushes Neeleman to sell stake

Mon Feb 24, 2020 6:36 pm

It makes a lot of sense for Lufthansa and United to invest in TAP, even if it's not a controlling share.
From Hamburg with love.
 
SCQ83
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Re: Lufthansa and United in negotiations to acquire TAP from David Neeleman

Mon Feb 24, 2020 6:41 pm

airzona11 wrote:
Why focus on Madrid? Unless I am mistaken, Spain is not a large driver of traffic to Brazil.


Madrid/Spain are way bigger markets than Lisbon/Portugal in any possible sense (business, tourism, VFR, etc.). So Spain-Brazil will always be WAY bigger than Lisbon-Spanish speaking LATAM.

In 2017 (latest figures in Wiki), MAD-GRU was substantially bigger than LIS-GRU.

MAD-GRU 637,428 PAX
LIS-GRU 417,788 PAX

airbazar wrote:
Makes perfect sense from LH/UA point of view but it will spell the end for TAP and likely a disaster for Portugal's economy as TAP is it's largest exporter and a huge contributor to the tourism industry which accounts for ~20% of GDP.
Why do I say this? TAP is a big contributor to declining yields across the Atlantic. That's bad for LH/UA who have much higher operating costs and therefore need higher yields. By eliminating TAP they eliminate a significant low cost competitor and because TAP is so cheap to buy, it's an easy thing to do.
With Delta/VS trying to eliminate DY and Lh/UA trying to eliminate TAP, pretty soon we'll be left with nothing but 3 main alliances across the Atlantic and back to the high fares of old.


The Portuguese economy will end up in a disaster either way. The growth in the Portuguese economy has been a mix government debt, tax-breaks (those Golden visas and expats on that 10-year scheme not to pay income tax - now being partially withdrawn -), real estate bubble (prices in Lisbon or Porto are simply ridiculous specially compared with average salaries) and tourism boom. If there is a coronavirus global crisis a la 2008 (or worse), all this will fall like a house of cards.

IMO the only way for TP to survive is to "come back to basics" and what it was 10 years ago, and Lufthansa would be a good candidate. Focus in LIS (and drop OPO) and focus on their key markets: Brazil, North America and core Europe. Maybe adding some key markets in LATAM (like EZE or MEX) to compete with Iberia for Southern European connections.

abrelosojos wrote:
People forget that TP was unprofitable for the first 72 years of government control. With the huge capex in 2019, it still improved it's performance, showing the article is political spin. Give it a few years, and if they continue performing, TP will keep turning around


You are forgetting TAP's insane growth over the last 5 years or so. TAP is not longer comparable to an Euro legacy but to Turkish, Emirates or Qatar. They just launch routes with 0 PDEW (Lisbon-Agadir?) just for the connections.

As other posters and myself have said from our experience, TAP literally gives tickets away.
 
RvA
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Re: Lufthansa and United in negotiations to acquire TAP from David Neeleman

Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:51 pm

NZ321 wrote:
LH should not be allowed to acquire TAP and extend its leverage further in Europe IMHO, but equally IAG should not be able to pick up TAP either given their strong hold in the Iberian peninsular. We need TAP to stay in STAR or move to Skyteam. There have to be better options.


If LHG can’t buy into TAP then who can (or will)? Consolidation is the only path left right now or airlines will end up competing themselves into the ground. Likely the smaller ones that will cave in first which comes still at a loss of many jobs. TAP being part of LHG (or any of the groups for that matter) has a much better chance of surviving long term and help keep the jobs related to it in OPO and LIS alive with it.
 
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enilria
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Re: TAP post 1H 2019 loss; government pushes Neeleman to sell stake

Mon Feb 24, 2020 9:09 pm

If this is true and you couple it with the recent death of Neeleman's French carrier it is some serious bad karma coming into Breeze/Moxy.
 
airbazar
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Re: TAP post 1H 2019 loss; government pushes Neeleman to sell stake

Mon Feb 24, 2020 10:08 pm

Polot wrote:
abrelosojos wrote:
People forget that TP was unprofitable for the first 72 years of government control. With the huge capex in 2019, it still improved it's performance, showing the article is political spin. Give it a few years, and if they continue performing, TP will keep turning around.

Saludos,
Alex

TAP hasn’t been improving its performance, that is the problem. It’s profitability has been all over the place the past couple of years, there has been no clear trend. And the past couple of years have been “good times” for airlines.

Those brand new airplanes cost money. The large number of employees they've had to hire cost money. You don't see a return on that sort of expansion over 2 years.

SCQ83 wrote:
The Portuguese economy will end up in a disaster either way. The growth in the Portuguese economy has been a mix government debt, tax-breaks (those Golden visas and expats on that 10-year scheme not to pay income tax - now being partially withdrawn -), real estate bubble (prices in Lisbon or Porto are simply ridiculous specially compared with average salaries) and tourism boom. If there is a coronavirus global crisis a la 2008 (or worse), all this will fall like a house of cards.

I disagree 100% but this is not really the forum for an economics discussion. The Portuguese economy has never been more diversified and more future proof after huge investments have been made in technology and education. Those real estate prices are for foreigners as the Portuguese already own their houses. Portugal has one of the highest home ownership rates in all of Europe.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/246 ... in-europe/
There's a general misconception amongst people who don't know Portugal that the Portuguese are poor. That is not true, they enjoy a superior quality of life than many other people in perceived wealthier nations. The government of Portugal is poor, not the people. Don't confuse the two. Look at the link above. More people own their own houses in Portugal than in Germany for example. That's a sign of wealth and quality of life.
And Portugal is somewhat immune to a Coronavirus outbreak because guess what, It's a warm weather country and it has few ties to China and Asia in general. If anything, a Coronavirus outbreak will make people seek places that are relatively free of the virus and with a good health care system where they feel safer, like Portugal. Portugal and Spain could actually see a huge increase in tourism this year as people avoid vacationing in Asia and decide to stay closer to home. And if you think those Brits living in Algarve are now going to return to the cold and rainy UK because they now have to pay 10% tax which is still lower than in the UK, dream on.
 
Naia
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Re: TAP post 1H 2019 loss; government pushes Neeleman to sell stake

Mon Feb 24, 2020 10:55 pm

Last year: GRU-LIS almost 600.000 pessengers - TAP 14 to 18 weekly flights (A339) and Latam 5 to 7 weekly flights (763 and A359). VCP-LIS arround 250.000 passengers - 9 to 14 weekly flights (A332 and A339). GRU+VCP to LIS, more than 800.000 anual passengers. GRU-CDG and MAD, almost 600.000 to 650.000. GRU-FRA and LHR almost 500.000. GRU-FCO maybe 400.000.
 
questions
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Re: TAP post 1H 2019 loss; government pushes Neeleman to sell stake

Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:02 am

Side note, but related.

SAS is S.A.S., not Sas

EVA is E.V.A., not Eva

Is TAP T.A.P., not Tap? Or are people referring to the airline as Air Portugal?

Thanks.
 
Pyrex
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Re: TAP post 1H 2019 loss; government pushes Neeleman to sell stake

Tue Feb 25, 2020 3:10 am

Naia wrote:
Last year: GRU-LIS almost 600.000 pessengers - TAP 14 to 18 weekly flights (A339) and Latam 5 to 7 weekly flights (763 and A359). VCP-LIS arround 250.000 passengers - 9 to 14 weekly flights (A332 and A339). GRU+VCP to LIS, more than 800.000 anual passengers. GRU-CDG and MAD, almost 600.000 to 650.000. GRU-FRA and LHR almost 500.000. GRU-FCO maybe 400.000.


And that is not even counting GRU/VCP-OPO (how many non-hub cities in Europe even have that?). Or all the other flights from LIS to Brazil. Or OPO-GIG.
Read this very carefully, I shall write this only once!
 
SCQ83
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Re: TAP post 1H 2019 loss; government pushes Neeleman to sell stake

Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:53 am

Naia wrote:
Last year: GRU-LIS almost 600.000 pessengers - TAP 14 to 18 weekly flights (A339) and Latam 5 to 7 weekly flights (763 and A359). VCP-LIS arround 250.000 passengers - 9 to 14 weekly flights (A332 and A339). GRU+VCP to LIS, more than 800.000 anual passengers. GRU-CDG and MAD, almost 600.000 to 650.000. GRU-FRA and LHR almost 500.000. GRU-FCO maybe 400.000.


Thanks. I reckon that LIS-SAO had increased a lot during the last few years (certainly Azul and cheap TAP connections help) while MAD-SAO is pretty much flat.

Still, Madrid-Brazil is way times bigger than anywhere Lisboa-Spanish speaking Americas. It is not even possible to compare them because there is only LIS-CCS. Even TAP tried a triangular LIS-BOG-PTY which was dropped. MAD-BOG alone was 950,000 passengers in 2019.

Not to mention the risk involved in focusing in one country (Brazil). All of Latin America is very unstable (politically, economically) but at least Iberia can diversify their risk between different countries (Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, Perú, Venezuela, Ecuador, Panamá, etc.). TAP put their eggs in one basket (Brazil). If Brazil enters in a recession, TAP is automatically screwed.
 
dfpinto
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Re: Lufthansa and United in negotiations to acquire TAP from David Neeleman

Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:43 am

ScottB wrote:
dfpinto wrote:
Imagine having to backtrack from (e.g) MAD to FRA to get in a flight to EZE. I'm guessing you would rather take Iberia or some other connection that doesn't waste so much time.


Airlines and alliances can't (profitably) be all things to all people. A high-value customer in Madrid is probably going to stick with non-stops on IB rather than connecting in FRA or LIS, either way. There's relatively little business traffic between Portugal and the non-Lusophone parts of South America so it makes little sense to go chasing after low-yielding connecting traffic unless you've got really low costs.


So forget about Madrid, think about Valencia, Alicante, Malaga, Barcelona, Bilbao, Marseilles, Nice, Lyon, Naples, Bologna, Venice and a whole lot of secondary cities that TP serves in France, Spain and Italy. Cities where you don't have an option to fly direct to Latin America. Then you'll have TP and IB competing for the same passenger.
 
Lewton
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Re: TAP post 1H 2019 loss; government pushes Neeleman to sell stake

Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:04 am

airbazar wrote:


SCQ83 wrote:
The Portuguese economy will end up in a disaster either way. The growth in the Portuguese economy has been a mix government debt, tax-breaks (those Golden visas and expats on that 10-year scheme not to pay income tax - now being partially withdrawn -), real estate bubble (prices in Lisbon or Porto are simply ridiculous specially compared with average salaries) and tourism boom. If there is a coronavirus global crisis a la 2008 (or worse), all this will fall like a house of cards.

I disagree 100% but this is not really the forum for an economics discussion. The Portuguese economy has never been more diversified and more future proof after huge investments have been made in technology and education. Those real estate prices are for foreigners as the Portuguese already own their houses. Portugal has one of the highest home ownership rates in all of Europe.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/246 ... in-europe/
There's a general misconception amongst people who don't know Portugal that the Portuguese are poor. That is not true, they enjoy a superior quality of life than many other people in perceived wealthier nations. The government of Portugal is poor, not the people. Don't confuse the two. Look at the link above. More people own their own houses in Portugal than in Germany for example. That's a sign of wealth and quality of life.
And Portugal is somewhat immune to a Coronavirus outbreak because guess what, It's a warm weather country and it has few ties to China and Asia in general. If anything, a Coronavirus outbreak will make people seek places that are relatively free of the virus and with a good health care system where they feel safer, like Portugal. Portugal and Spain could actually see a huge increase in tourism this year as people avoid vacationing in Asia and decide to stay closer to home. And if you think those Brits living in Algarve are now going to return to the cold and rainy UK because they now have to pay 10% tax which is still lower than in the UK, dream on.

Very well said.
Some people need to find better sources to inform themselves.
From Hamburg with love.
 
SCQ83
Posts: 5749
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2012 8:32 pm

Re: TAP post 1H 2019 loss; government pushes Neeleman to sell stake

Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:08 am

Lewton wrote:
airbazar wrote:


SCQ83 wrote:
The Portuguese economy will end up in a disaster either way. The growth in the Portuguese economy has been a mix government debt, tax-breaks (those Golden visas and expats on that 10-year scheme not to pay income tax - now being partially withdrawn -), real estate bubble (prices in Lisbon or Porto are simply ridiculous specially compared with average salaries) and tourism boom. If there is a coronavirus global crisis a la 2008 (or worse), all this will fall like a house of cards.

I disagree 100% but this is not really the forum for an economics discussion. The Portuguese economy has never been more diversified and more future proof after huge investments have been made in technology and education. Those real estate prices are for foreigners as the Portuguese already own their houses. Portugal has one of the highest home ownership rates in all of Europe.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/246 ... in-europe/
There's a general misconception amongst people who don't know Portugal that the Portuguese are poor. That is not true, they enjoy a superior quality of life than many other people in perceived wealthier nations. The government of Portugal is poor, not the people. Don't confuse the two. Look at the link above. More people own their own houses in Portugal than in Germany for example. That's a sign of wealth and quality of life.
And Portugal is somewhat immune to a Coronavirus outbreak because guess what, It's a warm weather country and it has few ties to China and Asia in general. If anything, a Coronavirus outbreak will make people seek places that are relatively free of the virus and with a good health care system where they feel safer, like Portugal. Portugal and Spain could actually see a huge increase in tourism this year as people avoid vacationing in Asia and decide to stay closer to home. And if you think those Brits living in Algarve are now going to return to the cold and rainy UK because they now have to pay 10% tax which is still lower than in the UK, dream on.

Very well said.
Some people need to find better sources to inform themselves.


Saying that the real estate bubble does not have an impact in Portugal because “all Portuguese are home owners already” is hilarious at best.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1148
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: TAP post 1H 2019 loss; government pushes Neeleman to sell stake

Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:08 am

questions wrote:
Side note, but related.

SAS is S.A.S., not Sas

EVA is E.V.A., not Eva

Is TAP T.A.P., not Tap? Or are people referring to the airline as Air Portugal?

Thanks.


Tap Air Portugal
 
RvA
Posts: 380
Joined: Tue Sep 15, 2015 12:37 pm

Re: TAP post 1H 2019 loss; government pushes Neeleman to sell stake

Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:49 am

SCQ83 wrote:
Lewton wrote:
airbazar wrote:



I disagree 100% but this is not really the forum for an economics discussion. The Portuguese economy has never been more diversified and more future proof after huge investments have been made in technology and education. Those real estate prices are for foreigners as the Portuguese already own their houses. Portugal has one of the highest home ownership rates in all of Europe.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/246 ... in-europe/
There's a general misconception amongst people who don't know Portugal that the Portuguese are poor. That is not true, they enjoy a superior quality of life than many other people in perceived wealthier nations. The government of Portugal is poor, not the people. Don't confuse the two. Look at the link above. More people own their own houses in Portugal than in Germany for example. That's a sign of wealth and quality of life.
And Portugal is somewhat immune to a Coronavirus outbreak because guess what, It's a warm weather country and it has few ties to China and Asia in general. If anything, a Coronavirus outbreak will make people seek places that are relatively free of the virus and with a good health care system where they feel safer, like Portugal. Portugal and Spain could actually see a huge increase in tourism this year as people avoid vacationing in Asia and decide to stay closer to home. And if you think those Brits living in Algarve are now going to return to the cold and rainy UK because they now have to pay 10% tax which is still lower than in the UK, dream on.

Very well said.
Some people need to find better sources to inform themselves.


Saying that the real estate bubble does not have an impact in Portugal because “all Portuguese are home owners already” is hilarious at best.


Totally. Portugal is not one of the wealthier EU countries. Not the government and not it’s people. Totally nonsensical to even suggest that.
 
RvA
Posts: 380
Joined: Tue Sep 15, 2015 12:37 pm

Re: TAP post 1H 2019 loss; government pushes Neeleman to sell stake

Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:52 am

Just to add, the home owner % in Portugal is higher than Germany this much I also think is true. But Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria all have higher percentages than Germany. That doesn’t mean the average person from those countries has the same purchasing power than someone in Germany.
 
LXwing
Posts: 238
Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2016 2:32 pm

Re: TAP post 1H 2019 loss; government pushes Neeleman to sell stake

Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:24 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
questions wrote:
Side note, but related.

SAS is S.A.S., not Sas

EVA is E.V.A., not Eva

Is TAP T.A.P., not Tap? Or are people referring to the airline as Air Portugal?

Thanks.


Tap Air Portugal


No, it is TAP Air Portugal (from Transportes Aéreos Portugueses)
 
Pt56
Posts: 55
Joined: Tue Dec 08, 2015 9:57 pm

Re: TAP post 1H 2019 loss; government pushes Neeleman to sell stake

Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:05 pm

The notion that the Portuguese economy would tank if TAP woul disappear is nonsense.

Being the biggest exporter, (mostly only a statistical reality) is kinda irrelevant wen it's also one of the biggest importers. It's does not bring revenue to the state just losses, and from a tourist POV I'm sure that other companies would fill the existing gap in no time...

The only real loss would be job related, specifically in middle management of the company.

Portugal economy is not the best, but it is in a better state than it was.. The housing bubble is really only in some areas of Lisbon and less so in Porto, incomparable in any way to what was and still is the buble in Spain.. (please check stats). Houses in Lisbon are relatively cheep wen in comparison to other European capitals.

On topic again, yes Madrid is by far the biggest player in the peninsula, specialy in the south American countries, but for Brazil that is by far the largest country in that area Portugal is far better connected to it... So it might make sense for a computing alience to acquire TAP to limit AIG domination of the Europe South America hub space..
 
airbazar
Posts: 10158
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:12 pm

Re: TAP post 1H 2019 loss; government pushes Neeleman to sell stake

Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:07 pm

RvA wrote:
SCQ83 wrote:
Lewton wrote:
Very well said.
Some people need to find better sources to inform themselves.


Saying that the real estate bubble does not have an impact in Portugal because “all Portuguese are home owners already” is hilarious at best.


Totally. Portugal is not one of the wealthier EU countries. Not the government and not it’s people. Totally nonsensical to even suggest that.


I can tell you with absolute certainty that the average Portuguese has better quality of life and better purchasing power than the average German/Italian/Brit, within their respective borders. In other words, in Portugal a Portuguese has a much better quality of life than a German has in Germany. Those people in the so called wealthy countries have high salaries but they also have very high cost of living and debt. In other words, they are spending money they don't have to begin with.
And no, there is no housing bubble so there's no need to worry about it affecting the economy. Like I said, those expensive houses are for foreigners so some builders may be a little less millionaire if they don't sell as many but it has little effect on the average resident.
 
RvA
Posts: 380
Joined: Tue Sep 15, 2015 12:37 pm

Re: TAP post 1H 2019 loss; government pushes Neeleman to sell stake

Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:22 pm

airbazar wrote:
RvA wrote:
SCQ83 wrote:

Saying that the real estate bubble does not have an impact in Portugal because “all Portuguese are home owners already” is hilarious at best.


Totally. Portugal is not one of the wealthier EU countries. Not the government and not it’s people. Totally nonsensical to even suggest that.


I can tell you with absolute certainty that the average Portuguese has better quality of life and better purchasing power than the average German/Italian/Brit, within their respective borders. In other words, in Portugal a Portuguese has a much better quality of life than a German has in Germany. Those people in the so called wealthy countries have high salaries but they also have very high cost of living and debt. In other words, they are spending money they don't have to begin with.
And no, there is no housing bubble so there's no need to worry about it affecting the economy. Like I said, those expensive houses are for foreigners so some builders may be a little less millionaire if they don't sell as many but it has little effect on the average resident.


Im happy to be educated and I’m interested to learn more about that. Do you have a source for this?
 
TAP343
Posts: 24
Joined: Tue Jun 14, 2016 9:20 pm

Re: TAP post 1H 2019 loss; government pushes Neeleman to sell stake

Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:59 pm

airbazar wrote:
I can tell you with absolute certainty that the average Portuguese has better quality of life and better purchasing power than the average German/Italian/Brit, within their respective borders. In other words, in Portugal a Portuguese has a much better quality of life than a German has in Germany. Those people in the so called wealthy countries have high salaries but they also have very high cost of living and debt. In other words, they are spending money they don't have to begin with.
And no, there is no housing bubble so there's no need to worry about it affecting the economy. Like I said, those expensive houses are for foreigners so some builders may be a little less millionaire if they don't sell as many but it has little effect on the average resident.


Those are "alternative facts".

Now, the real facts:

GDP current prices in US dollars (Purchasing Power Parity) per capita (2020 estimate):

Portugal - $34,936
Germany - $55,306.

Source: IMF
 
luckyone
Posts: 3079
Joined: Thu Aug 21, 2008 1:50 pm

Re: TAP post 1H 2019 loss; government pushes Neeleman to sell stake

Tue Feb 25, 2020 3:04 pm

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